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Poll: How Much Will Yoenis Cespedes Get?

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The free agent market has steadily advanced in the new year, but significant names remain. Many of them have drawn divergent opinions at times, perhaps none moreso than Yoenis Cespedes. With reports suggesting that Cespedes is receiving heavy interest, and could soon close in on a deal, it seems like an opportune time to get everyone’s predictions.

In this free agent profile, I broke down his benefits and drawbacks while agreeing with MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes that a $140MM guarantee was obtainable. That was in early December, and a seeming market lull made some wonder whether the dollars were drying up. Now, most signings are still coming in at expected values, and the above-cited reports suggest Cespedes won’t need to settle for a pure pillow contract. But will he max out his earning potential?

Opt-outs, options, deferred money, taxes, and the like all weigh in the equation, of course. But those are hard to account for in this sort of exercise, and the bottom-line guarantee is still king.

So, here’s your chance to weigh in:

What Overall Guarantee Is Yoenis Cespedes Most Likely To Land?
$90MM to $120MM 46.28% (6,732 votes)
$60MM to $90MM 20.48% (2,979 votes)
$120MM to $150MM 18.81% (2,736 votes)
$30MM to $60MM 5.77% (839 votes)
$10MM to $30MM 5.22% (759 votes)
$150MM to $180MM 3.45% (502 votes)
Total Votes: 14,547

Poll: The Jeff Samardzija And Mike Leake Contracts

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Early last month, the Giants agreed to terms on a long-term contract with veteran righty Jeff Samardzija. Two weeks later, the Cardinals agreed to terms with another veteran righty, Mike Leake. The two contracts were identical in duration (five years) and similar in value ($90MM for Samardzija, $80MM for Leake). They were also interrelated — the Giants were the team that most recently employed Leake before the Cardinals signed him, while the Cardinals were connected to Samardzija before the Giants signed him. Both pitchers were a tier below David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann, all of whom received nine-figure deals. Beyond those similarities, however, lie a number of key differences about what, exactly, their contracts attempted to accomplish.

Of the two pitchers, Samardzija is widely perceived as having greater upside — with his mid-90s velocity, tough slider and 6’5″ frame, many of his attributes match those of an ace. He will, however, be 31 this month, and his performances so far in his career have not matched that ace profile. His 2015 season with the White Sox, in particular, was extremely disappointing — he posted a 4.96 ERA, and while ERA estimators suggested that figure could have been somewhat better, his K/9 has plummeted from 9.3 in 2012 to 6.9 last season, while his ground ball rate fell to a mere 39%.

On the bright side, Samardzija has been one of the game’s most durable starters, throwing over 210 innings in each of the past three seasons. And as long as he stays healthy, he seems likely to get at least somewhat better results in the next few years than he got in 2015, when he had to pitch in front of a poor defense and in a tough ballpark in a DH league. Samardzija’s 2015 season wasn’t a good one, but it also represented something of a perfect storm. But the error bar on Samardzija’s future performance is large, and where he lands might depend somewhat on Giants coaches’ ability to help him get back to missing bats, and to inducing ground balls when he doesn’t.

Like Samardzija, Leake has reliably eaten innings. Unlike Samardzija, he’s been very consistent, posting ERAs well below four in each of the last three seasons and regularly inducing ground balls at around a 50% clip. He also limits walks, which prevents opposing batters from doing too much damage against him, and he helps himself by fielding and hitting very well. Leake is also one of the offseason’s youngest free agents — he only turned 28 in November and could well have several prime-era seasons ahead. Also, his contract is worth $10MM less than Samardzija’s (although Samardzija’s limited no-trade clause is preferable to Leake’s full no-trade).

If Samardzija looks like an ace, though, Leake looks like something far less than that. While he isn’t quite a soft-tosser, his stuff isn’t at all overwhelming, and he’s small, at 5’10” — Leake isn’t a lefty, but he’s always seemed like he should be one. Leake has obviously reached the point in his career where it’s wise to judge him more on his performance record than on his profile, but not all the indicators there are positive, either. While Samardzija’s ability to strike batters out has diminished in recent seasons, Leake has never really had that ability, and his K/9 dropped to a mere 5.6 in 2015. Career paths are hard to predict, but it’s difficult to imagine Leake becoming anything close to an ace as he gets older. He does, however, seem more likely than Samardzija to provide league-average innings over the course of his contract.

So which contract do you prefer? Which player’s deal was best for his team?

Free Agent Faceoff: Yovani Gallardo vs. Ian Kennedy

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There’s been plenty of action on the free agent market for starters, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some big earners still out there. Lefty Wei-Yin Chen rates as the best remaining option, in the estimation of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, and he’s said to be chasing a $100MM contract.

Whether or not he gets there, that’s probably not even a reasonable ask for the next two names on the list. But both of them — Ian Kennedy and Yovani Gallardo — have some contractual upside of their own.

We’ve seen pitchers in this general range score deals in the four-year, $50MM range in recent years, sometimes quite late in the offseason. (In the winter of 2013-14, Matt Garza signed in late January, while Ubaldo Jimenez waited until the middle of February.) Of course, that same year, Ervin Santana waited even longer and ended up settling for a one-year deal at the qualifying offer value (which was, at the time, $14.1MM).

For teams looking to add sturdy, mid-rotation arms, there really aren’t any other options available. The trade market remains a plausible option, to be sure, but there really aren’t any obvious candidates begging for a taker that would fit the mold of these two right-handers.

When Dierkes took stock at the outset of the market, he ranked Kennedy and Gallardo back-to-back (as the 19th and 20th-best players available) and valued both at identical rates: four years and $52MM. Interestingly, both present rather different profiles.

Kennedy, who just turned 31, has posted career-best strikeout numbers over the past two years (9.3 K/9) while holding his walks to a reasonable level (3.0 BB/9), leading both SIERA and xFIP to value him as a mid-3.00 ERA-equivalent contributor. He’s averaged 196 innings annually dating back to 2010, an impressive record of durability, while contributing a useful (albeit unexciting) 3.88 ERA.

In spite of all those positives, though, Kennedy has finished three of the past four seasons with an ERA north of 4.00. With his fastball velocity sitting above his career average and a double-digit swinging strike rate, it’s easy to attribute the poor run prevention to bad luck. Really, though, it all just poses a dilemma: is Kennedy’s long ball susceptibility — last year, Kennedy posted a MLB-high 1.66 HR/9 to go with the second-highest (17.2%) HR/FB rate — the product of poor fortune or poor pitching?

Gallardo, who’s about to reach 30 years of age, has more or less matched Kennedy in terms of annual innings (194 since 2010) while outperforming him in bottom-line results (3.66 ERA). Indeed, if we focus just on the last two years, it’s no contest in the earned run department, as Gallardo has worked to a sub-3.50 mark.

But things don’t look so great when you dig a bit deeper, as he’s gone from a modern-Kennedy-esque K:BB ratio (9.0 K/9 vs. 3.1 BB/9 in 2011-12) to a career-worst ratio of 5.9 strikeouts and 3.3 free passes per nine. Gallardo has continued to generate grounders on nearly half of the balls put in play against him, but his velocity and swinging strike rates have both tailed off noticeably. Things came to a head last year, as every major ERA estimator put him at 4.00 or greater, with SIERA calling him a 4.59 ERA-equivalent performer.

Really, this comparison is most interesting because both Kennedy and Gallardo have avoided any major injuries in recent seasons, are only about a year apart in age, and have generally landed in the same range in terms of how many outs they can get before handing things off to the pen. From there, it’s a question of how you view recent results, the relationship of peripherals to runs allowed, and luck.

So, MLBTR readers, which pitcher would you rather your team sign?

Which Free Agent Starter Would You Rather Sign?
Yovani Gallardo 57.00% (5,116 votes)
Ian Kennedy 43.00% (3,859 votes)
Total Votes: 8,975

Poll: Who Will Be The Last Of These Top-10 Free Agents To Sign?

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As we approach the New Year, five of MLBTR’s top ten free agents remain on the board.  Alex Gordon, Justin Upton, Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes, and Ian Desmond all have widespread interest, of course, but they each seem intent on waiting for the right offer to materialize.  Beyond that, other notables such as Wei-Yin Chen, Kenta Maeda, Dexter Fowler, Scott Kazmir, and Ian Kennedy are still without a ball club.

Last week, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk asked readers to predict who will be the first to come off of the board in each group.  In the “A” squad, nearly 39% of you predicted that Gordon would be the first to sign.  However, this poll was conducted before Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported that the incumbent Royals have been told by the outfielder’s camp that they have “no chance” to re-sign their franchise cornerstone as things currently stand.  Gordon’s camp is seeking a contract that will pay him upwards of $20MM per season, and Kansas City has reportedly only offered $12-$13MM per year over four years.

In the next group of free agents, MLBTR readers ID’d Kazmir as the player most likely to sign first.  Kazmir, unlike other players in that tier, does not have a qualifying offer attached.  Of the players in that poll, less than 4% said that Kennedy would be the next to sign with a team.  Things have been oddly quiet for Kennedy who decided to reject the qualifying offer from the Padres back in November.  The Marlins are known to have interest in him, but he is likely too expensive for them, and we haven’t heard much in the way of specific teams talking with his camp.  Maeda took nearly 24% of the vote – an indication that roughly one-quarter of MLBTR readers expect the free agent market to progress pretty slowly since the deadline for him to sign is on January 8th at 5pm ET/4pm CT.

When looking at the ten best free agents left, who do you think will be the last to land with a team?  (MLBTR app users can weigh in here) 

Who Will Be The Last Free Agent To Sign?
Chris Davis 25.84% (4,499 votes)
Ian Desmond 16.40% (2,855 votes)
Ian Kennedy 15.05% (2,621 votes)
Yoenis Cespedes 14.16% (2,466 votes)
Justin Upton 7.25% (1,262 votes)
Dexter Fowler 6.84% (1,191 votes)
Kenta Maeda 4.38% (762 votes)
Wei-Yin Chen 3.81% (663 votes)
Alex Gordon 3.67% (639 votes)
Scott Kazmir 2.60% (453 votes)
Total Votes: 17,411

Poll: Who Will Be The Next Of These Top-10 Free Agents To Sign?

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In our last MLBTR poll, over 38.6% of MLBTR readers surveyed felt that Alex Gordon would be the next to sign out of a group consisting of the top five players left on MLBTR’s list of this offseason’s Top 50 Free Agents.  Fast-forward a week and, unsurprisingly, all five players (Gordon, Justin Upton, Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes and Ian Desmond) are all still on the board.

Earlier today, Charlie Wilmoth examined the situations surrounding not just those five, but also the next five remaining from MLBTR’s original list — Wei-Yin Chen, Kenta Maeda, Dexter Fowler, Scott Kazmir and Ian Kennedy.  These five may not carry the high price tags of the top-rated quintet, so it’s possible any of them could come off the board before Gordon and company.  (Then again, it wouldn’t shock me if Chen or Maeda both sign for more than Desmond given how badly Desmond struggled in 2015.  In fact, with the other top free agent pitchers all signed, it’s possible Chen or Maeda could even best Gordon’s eventual contract.)

Also, given the intertwined free agent market, some of the big names may need to be signed before attention can be turned to the next five names.  As Charlie noted, for instance, Fowler’s market may not come into focus until the top-tier outfielders find new homes.  Conversely, Fowler offers a different skillset than Upton, Cespedes or Gordon, so it’s also possible he could be signed before any of them.

The qualifying offer also looms large in this tier of free agents.  Chen, Fowler and Kennedy all rejected the QO, so any new team that signs them will have to give up a draft pick as compensation.  Maeda, obviously, doesn’t have the qualifying offer to worry about coming from Japan, though he has two more obstacles — the extra $20MM posting fee his MLB team will have to pay to the Hiroshima Carp, and the simple fact that Maeda is the most unknown quantity in Major League play.  Kazmir doesn’t have a qualifying offer attached, yet that actually may be what’s holding up his signing since multiple teams are showing interest; Kazmir reportedly has several three-year offers in hand but he may be holding out for a team that gives him that guaranteed fourth year.

With these factors in mind, which of the “next five” do you think will be the first to sign a contract?  (MLBTR app users can weigh in here) 

Which Of These Free Agents Will Sign First?
Scott Kazmir 48.32% (4,593 votes)
Kenta Maeda 23.11% (2,197 votes)
Wei-Yin Chen 12.98% (1,234 votes)
Dexter Fowler 11.70% (1,112 votes)
Ian Kennedy 3.88% (369 votes)
Total Votes: 9,505

Poll: Who Will Be The Next Top-10 Free Agent To Sign?

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Of the top 10 entries on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list, half are already off the market.  David Price, Jason Heyward, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto have all signed new contracts, though there’s obviously still lots of top-tier talent still available, particularly on the position player side.  Indeed, the five remaining top-10 players are all everyday players — three left fielders, a shortstop and a first baseman.  There’s also been a notable lack of clarity about each player’s market (compounded by the fact that several of the same teams are interested in these same names), leaving some question about exactly who might come off the board next.  Here are the candidates, in the order of their ranking on MLBTR’s list…

Justin Upton: There have been surprisingly few solid rumors about Upton’s market, as the Angels and Orioles have both at least spoken with Upton’s representatives but there’s been little evidence of a serious pursuit.  He carries a high projected price tag (MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes thinks Upton will get a seven-year, $147MM deal) and he’ll cost his new team a draft pick as qualifying offer compensation, though Upton’s main problem could simply be the glut of other quality outfielders on the free agent and trade markets.  That said, it’s hard to believe Upton won’t eventually wind up with a lucrative deal given the number of potential suitors that could use a big outfield bat.

Chris Davis: The Orioles, Davis’ former team, made a $150MM offer to the slugger that has since been taken off the table.  The Cardinals, Blue Jays and Red Sox have been speculatively linked to Davis but Baltimore is the only club known to be firmly pursuing him.  If Davis and agent Scott Boras are really looking for an eight-year, $200MM offer, however, it’s hard to see any team taking the plunge at that price, despite Boras’ track record of scoring higher-than-expected contracts for his clients.

Yoenis Cespedes: Upton and Cespedes share many of the same issues clouding their market, though Cespedes is two years older but can be signed without draft pick compensation.  (Cespedes, in fact, is the only player of these five who doesn’t have the qualifying offer hanging over his free agency.)  The Orioles and Angels have also been lightly linked to Cespedes, with the Tigers, Royals and Giants also being involved.  The White Sox have also been mentioned as a possible suitor for Cespedes or Upton, as they have a left field vacancy.

Alex Gordon: Though Gordon is four and two years older, respectively, than Upton and Cespedes, he’s been getting a lot more interest from a variety of teams — the Cardinals, Astros, Royals, Giants, Angels, Red Sox, Cubs, Orioles and Tigers have all been linked to Gordon at one time or another this winter.  At least a few of those teams, however, can probably be eliminated from contention due to other moves; the Cubs signed Heyward and Colby Rasmus accepted Houston’s qualifying offer, for instance.  Dierkes projected a five-year, $105MM deal for Gordon, so it’s not surprising that teams are exploring their options before deciding to give up a draft pick and give a nine-figure deal to a 32-year-old.

Ian Desmond: Whereas the other four names on this list had good-to-excellent walk years, Desmond headed into free agency burdened by a poor 2015 season (.233/.290/.384 in 641 PA, 83 wRC+, -3.7 UZR/150).  It’s made for a slow market for Desmond, as teams with shortstop needs like the Padres and Mets have shown only marginal interest.  What may help Desmond, however, is that he may not be limited to shortstop-needy teams, as his agents have been pushing him as a multi-position player capable of handling the outfield.  The strategy seems to be working to some extent, as multiple teams are considering Desmond not just at short or the outfield but also at second and third.

With all these factors in mind, who will be the next member of MLBTR’s Top 10 to sign a new contract?  (MLBTR app users can weigh in here)

Which Free Agent Will Sign First?
Alex Gordon 38.42% (6,564 votes)
Yoenis Cespedes 25.66% (4,384 votes)
Chris Davis 15.97% (2,728 votes)
Justin Upton 13.90% (2,375 votes)
Ian Desmond 6.05% (1,034 votes)
Total Votes: 17,085

MLBTR Poll: Best $100MM+ Pitching Contract

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We expected a lot of competition at the top of the free agent market for starting pitching, and the results have not disappointed. There was plenty of discussion heading into the winter as to which top arm would make the most sensible investment, and now we can begin to assess that with the knowledge of the deals they’ve signed.

While all of the top four starters have landed guarantees of over $100MM, as expected, there have been some creative contract structures that make it impossible to assess the deals simply by comparing total value. Let’s take a closer look (in order of lowest to highest guarantee; links to posts on signings):

Jordan Zimmermann, Tigers: Five years, $110MM. Full no-trade for three seasons, then 19-team no-trade list for final two seasons. Backloaded annual salary structure. Guarantees age 30 through 34 campaigns.

Johnny Cueto, Giants: Six years, $130MM. Opt-out rights after two seasons; also includes club option if opt-out isn’t triggered. Slightly front-loaded structure in which $46MM of guarantee is payable in first two years. Guarantees age 30 through 35 campaigns.

Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks: Six years, $206.5MM. Significant deferrals ($60MM total) reduce present value to around $194MM. Limited no-trade protection. Guarantees age 32 through 37 campaigns.

David Price, Red Sox: Seven years, $217MM. Opt-out rights after three seasons. Guarantees age 30 through 36 campaigns.

The Zimmermann contract looks relatively affordable, but Detroit won’t easily be able to trade him. Cueto could give San Francisco two good seasons at a good price and then leave, but is the risk worth it? The D-backs get one of the best pitchers in the game in Greinke, but it took a huge AAV to buy up his mid thirties. And then there’s Price, who is an in-prime ace but required Boston to promise the highest-ever total guarantee for a pitcher.

So, which of these contracts looks like the best bet to work out?

Which $100MM+ Pitching Contract Is The Best Investment?
Jordan Zimmermann 37.66% (7,776 votes)
David Price 22.98% (4,745 votes)
Johnny Cueto 21.60% (4,461 votes)
Zack Greinke 17.76% (3,667 votes)
Total Votes: 20,649

MLBTR Poll: The Jason Heyward Contract

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We rarely hear such dramatically opposing takes on players as Jason Heyward has drawn in free agency. His reported signing today — for eight years & $184MM with the Cubs — only ratcheted things up another level.

It’s long been expected that Heyward would command this level of contract. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted ten years and $200MM. I guessed the same (and profiled Heyward’s free agent case, if you are interested in reading more). And we certainly weren’t out on a limb.

As I noted earlier tonight, Heyward’s deal, which critically includes opt-out rights after both three and four years, is arguably a more valuable compensation package than the $200MM pacts we posited. Regardless whether you think the other offers available were preferable, we can all agree that he was paid like a superstar.

There’s little sense in re-hashing all the arguments for and against Heyward here. The above links contain plenty of information in that regard, and most of our readers have probably already made up their minds.

So, time to make it official: does the MLBTR readership view Heyward as a prime-aged, prime-performing asset or a low-power hitter who just isn’t worth this kind of a deal?

Does Jason Heyward's Contract Properly Compensate Him?
No, he's just not worth that kind of money, even in this market. 60.56% (19,537 votes)
Yes, he's a quality young player and was paid accordingly. 39.44% (12,721 votes)
Total Votes: 32,258

Profiling Possible Top Rule 5 Picks

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After finishing with the worst record in baseball, the Phillies will pick first in the upcoming Rule 5 draft.  The draft, set to be held on December 10th, is the final activity of the Winter Meetings. Teams have a chance to select players from rival franchises with a main rules:

  • Any player on the 40-man roster is protected
  • Players signed at age 19 or older are protected for four seasons
  • Players signed at age 18 or older are protected for five seasons

If none of those conditions apply to a player, then he may be selected in the draft. Draft picks cost $50K and the drafting team must keep a player on the major league roster for the entire season in order to retain him. Injured players must spend at least 90 active days on the roster.

If a team decides not to fulfill these conditions, the former club can reacquire the player for $25K. Sometimes, the team refuses to pay the fee, as was the case when the Phillies selected Shane Victorino from the Dodgers. There is also a minor league portion of the draft with slightly different rules and requirements. For the scope of this post, we’ll focus on the major league portion.

The Phillies and the Rule 5 Draft

The Phillies are one of the most successful teams in the Rule 5 draft in recent years. Dating back to 2009, they’ve made the following picks: David Herndon (2009), Michael Martinez (2010), Ender Inciarte (2012), Kevin Munson (2013), Odubel Herrera (2014), and Andy Oliver (2014).

Herndon, Martinez, and Herrera were the most successful of those picks with Herrera looking like a building block for Philadelphia. Many of you will recognize Inciarte, an able outfielder for the Diamondbacks. The Phillies failed to keep him on the active roster for a season and had to return him.

Teams generally select players who fit one of these profiles:

  • Left-handed relievers
  • Hard throwing, wild pitching prospects
  • Back-up catchers
  • Polished hitters with uncertain defense
  • Athletic, raw position players

Herrera, along with fellow successful pick Delino DeShields (Rangers), fell into the latter category. The toolsy athletes are probably the riskiest bucket to pick, but they also come with the highest upside.

In full rebuild mode, it’s my opinion that the Phillies will benefit most from an aggressive pick at first overall. Rather than playing the relief market, I expect them to target a possible starting left fielder.  Herrera and Aaron Altherr are the only two starting outfielders on the roster. Both are exciting young players who emerged during the 2015 season. Both also come with risk. The Phillies will want to build redundancy.

Other options on the 40-man roster include Cody Asche, Darnell Sweeney, and Roman Quinn. Asche and Sweeney are penciled in as the left field platoon, but that’s not how the team will enter Spring Training. Quinn is not yet major league ready. Given the internal options, there is room to give a Rule 5 pick a long look in left field.

The 40-man roster currently stands at 37, meaning the club could pick up to three players if it chooses. Rarely do teams take more than two, but the Phillies might be the exception. The bullpen is a work in progress, and there are enough interesting relievers to give two a look after picking an outfielder.

The Candidates

We recently cited J.J Cooper of Baseball America’s list of Rule 5 names to remember. Of those, five stand out as first pick material to me. This is not to say that the Phillies scouts won’t fall in love with another player or decide to go with a pitcher. But these are my best guesses to go first overall in the draft.

Jabari Blash, OF, SEA

This is the second time Blash, 26, is eligible for the draft. The Mariners left him unprotected last year, and he went unpicked. That’s unlikely to happen this year after he blasted 32 home runs between Double- and Triple-A.  It wasn’t a matter of dominating the weaker opponents either. After a BABIP-fueled outburst in Double-A, the righty finished with 22 home runs in 228 plate appearances in Triple-A. His BABIP actually fell to .263, yet he still posted a strong .264/.355/.640 line.

Pros: Power, athleticism, a high walk rate, upper-minors success, and plus defense.

Cons: A big whiff rate that could get out of hand in the majors.

Tyler Goeddel, OF, TBR

Cooper describes Goeddel, 23, as one of the most polished hitters in the draft. The right-handed hitter is eligible for the first time after hitting .279./350/.433 over 533 plate appearances at Double-A. He’s a well-rounded asset with some power (12 home runs) and speed (28 stolen bases).

Pros: Athleticism, youth, plate discipline, plus defense, power, and speed.

Cons: Yet to reach Triple-A.

Jake Cave, OF, NYY

Entering his age 23 season, Cave is still relatively young like Goeddel. He was once thought to possess upside similar to Jacoby Ellsbury, but injuries and time have sapped his speed. The lefty is viewed as an ideal fourth outfielder with some latent power, decent wheels, and the ability to do a passable job in center field. He hit .269/.330/.345 in 563 Double-A plate appearances. He received a brief, successful trial in Triple-A too.

Pros: Can play all three outfield spots, decent contact skills and plate discipline

Cons: More of a fourth outfielder

Zach Borenstein, OF/1B, ARI

Borenstein, 24, is a left-handed power prospect who has lost some steam. He performed well at Double-A last season with a BABIP-fueled .314/.394/.511 line in 327 plate appearances. He was miserable in a 53 plate appearance try in Triple-A. A questionable defender, Borenstein may be a better candidate for the Phillies second pick.

Pros: History of power, strong plate discipline once he adapts to a level

Cons: Iffy Triple-A track record, game power was best in 2013

Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B, KAN

Now there’s an 80-grade baseball name. As you might expect, Fuenmayor is a right-handed, aggressive power hitter. The 26-year-old is recovering from a torn ACL.

When healthy, Fuenmayor hit  .354/.386/.591 with 15 home runs in 308 Double-A plate appearances. He also had a small sample of success in Triple-A. Unlike the others listed here, he’s a first baseman if not a designated hitter. The Phillies have two of those – Ryan Howard and Darin Ruf. They might be willing to try another.

Pros: Excellent half season in 2015, power and contact skills

Cons: Aggressive, questionable defender

My best guess

I expect the Phillies to select Goeddel or Blash first overall. Both are candidates to step in and perform at a high level much like Herrera did last season. At the very least, they’ll offer plus defense. Their multi-faceted skill sets should ensure other means of production too. Goeddel is probably the safer of the two options, and I like that he’s younger too.

Remember, these picks can be traded. There’s nothing stopping the Phillies from taking a shot on both athletes. They’re liable to match the production of Sweeney who can be optioned. Asche is viewed as a trade candidate. The trade route would also give the club the option of evaluating two players during the spring and picking their favorite. It’s probably an unlikely path, but it’s an open option.

The Best Suitors For Jason Heyward?

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Free agency has progressed slowly this winter. Some of the biggest signings to date have been starting pitchers with late-season breakouts (Rich Hill, J.A. Happ). The markets for several of the flashiest names available have yet to develop, and that’s especially true of Jason Heyward.

The Angels have been mentioned once on these pages as a possible match. Earlier this week, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports said the Angels “aren’t ruling out a pursuit.” So that’s maybe, possibly one public suitor.

Every other Heyward rumor relates to his former Cardinals. While he fits their playing style to a T, Heyward isn’t exactly needed. The St. Louis roster features veterans Matt Holliday and Brandon Moss. Randal Grichuk is an exciting young center fielder with big power and plus defense. Stephen Piscotty made a successful late season debut. Some combination of Peter Bourjos, Jon Jay, and Tommy Pham can fill in the cracks.

Sure, Heyward is an improvement over some of those options, but is his production enough to justify the $200MM investment predicted by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes? I don’t think so. The team does have a need in the rotation with Lance Lynn out for the season and top prospect Alex Reyes suspended 50 games for marijuana use. It might be smart to use monetary resources on pitching.

In his free agent profile, Jeff Todd agreed with Dierkes 10-year, $200MM valuation, saying “It’s hard to put Heyward in the same production bracket as Robinson Cano (ten years, $240MM), and you could argue that he’s not as valuable a free agent as Prince Fielder (nine years, $214MM), depending upon how one values defense and baserunning.” Then again, you can also argue that Heyward, 26, offers more future value than Cano or Fielder did at the time of their signings. When they inked their respective deals, Cano was entering his age 31 season while Fielder was set to turn 28.

It used to be that $200MM really limited a player’s market to just a few teams. In today’s cash rich environment, any team can compete for a top free agent. While it wasn’t a free agent signing, the always penurious Marlins actually own the richest contract in major league history (Giancarlo Stanton). Heyward, therefore, is a relatively affordable, young asset. Clearly, his market won’t be constrained to a team that doesn’t need him and another that isn’t “ruling out a pursuit.”

MLB.com’s Dan O’Dowd offers two more alternatives – the Dodgers and Orioles. His justifications? The Dodgers have the cash, and Heyward would add athleticism over incumbent Andre Ethier. With the Orioles, a run at Heyward would likely depend upon the club falling short on re-signing Chris Davis. O’Dowd also likes how Heyward would fit into the Angels lineup.

Let’s explore some other possible fits for Heyward.

The Yankees are always a safe bet to be involved with a player like Heyward. They’re said to be shopping Brett Gardner, possibly to make room for a Heyward pursuit. His left-handed bat and athleticism in the outfield would play awfully well at Yankee Stadium.

New York’s rivals, the Red Sox, are a dark horse candidate. The club is much more fixated on pitching, and they’re currently rich in outfielders. If their pursuit of David Price goes sideways, Boston could try to use some of their outfield depth to acquire star pitching. The would open a role for Heyward.

After attempting to contend in 2015, it’s hard to gauge the White Sox plans. They’ll try again to build around Chris Sale and Jose Abreu, but will they commit more resources to the effort? Across town, the Cubs could benefit from an OBP oriented veteran like Heyward to help support the various young phenoms. They’re supposedly more focused on pitching.

The Phillies could technically afford to sign Heyward. Their only payroll commitment beyond 2017 is a $2MM buyout on Matt Harrison. With their ability to financially bully the other NL East clubs, I expect Philadelphia to rebound quickly from their current nightmare. But this offseason might be one too soon for a forward thinking free agent signing of this magnitude. And it might be difficult to convince Heyward to ink with a rebuilding club.

The Mariners and Giants are the other two clubs I could foresee entering the bidding. Seattle is keen to become more athletic under new GM Jerry Dipoto. After signing Cano and Nelson Cruz in recent offseasons, I’m not sure they could stomach the price tag.

San Francisco is a rich market club that likes to play quietly in free agency. The team has plenty of outfielders, but only Hunter Pence stands out as name brand talent.

So where do you think Heyward will land? Is it one of these teams or somebody completely off the radar?

Which Team Will Sign Jason Heyward?
Cardinals 21.71% (4,305 votes)
Angels 17.01% (3,374 votes)
Yankees 15.84% (3,142 votes)
Cubs 8.16% (1,618 votes)
Giants 7.43% (1,474 votes)
Dodgers 5.98% (1,186 votes)
Other 5.97% (1,185 votes)
Mariners 5.15% (1,021 votes)
Red Sox 3.49% (692 votes)
Orioles 3.43% (681 votes)
Phillies 3.06% (607 votes)
White Sox 2.76% (548 votes)
Total Votes: 19,833
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