MLBTR Polls

Last offseason, 14 players received free agent contracts of four or more years, excluding international signings.  Some of the borderline guys, like Ben Zobrist and Darren O’Day, successfully obtained the guaranteed fourth year.  Others, such as Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy, were not able to get there, at least at an acceptable salary.  This winter, Cespedes and elite relievers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen seem locks for four-plus years.  Everyone else, not so much.  Here are 13 cases to consider, and vote on:

• Edwin Encarnacion, 34 years old in January.  Encarnacion is having a great season, sitting second in MLB with 36 home runs.  He’s hit 34+ home runs in each of the last five seasons.  His market will likely be limited to the American League, though there is precedent with Nelson Cruz’s four-year, $57MM deal.  Encarnacion is facing a lawsuit alleging he knowingly infected a woman with multiple STDs in February.
• Ian Desmond, 31 in September.  Desmond has reinvented himself as the Rangers’ center fielder, though he has struggled offensively this month.
• Jose Bautista, 36 in October.  Bautista recently finished his second DL stint of the year, and his production has been down this season.  He’s the oldest player in this poll.
• Mark Trumbo, 31 in January.  Trumbo leads MLB with 40 home runs, but he also sports a .317 on-base percentage and has struggled on defense.
• Wilson Ramos, turned 29 this month.  The Nationals’ catcher has age on his side, and is in the midst of a breakout season.
• Justin Turner, 32 in November.  Zobrist signed his deal heading into his age-35 season, so surely his contract will be considered a precedent by Turner’s agent.  Turner has set a career-high with 24 home runs already, and is headed toward a career best in games played.
• Neil Walker, 31 in September.  After being traded to the Mets in December, Walker is having the best season of his career.  Chase Headley’s four-year, $52MM deal with the Yankees in December 2014 suggests Walker can reach the same term.
• Dexter Fowler, 31 in March.  Fowler ranks eighth in the NL with a .389 OBP, though a June hamstring injury may keep him shy of 130 games played for the third time in the last four years.
• Michael Saunders, 30 in November.  Like Desmond, Saunders has re-established himself but scuffled in August.  As with a few others on this list, Saunders’ injury history will give teams pause.
• Josh Reddick, 30 in February.  Reddick once seemed like a lock for four years, but he missed time earlier this year due to a broken thumb and has been terrible since joining the Dodgers in a deadline deal.  It’s fair to question whether four years will be on the table for him.
• Mark Melancon, 32 in March.  Though not as dominant with strikeouts as Chapman and Jansen, Melancon has a 1.75 ERA in 272 innings since 2013, and he’s been great for the Nationals.  His agent will at least aim for four years.
• Jeremy Hellickson, 30 in April.  Hellickson is one of the best free agent starters available this winter, and the weak market and his relative youth could theoretically push him to a four-year deal.
• Ivan Nova, 30 in January.  Nova is a long shot for four years, but he’s been great since coming over to the Pirates, and teams can act irrationally in free agency.

Your turn: which of these free agents will get four or more years?  Check all that apply, and click here to view the results.  Those using our app or Safari on their cell phone can click here for the poll.

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Heading into last Monday’s non-waiver deadline, there was no shortage of trade candidates that many expected to be moved (or hoped would be moved). While 20 of the names on MLBTR’s final list of top trade candidates did indeed find new homes, there were still quite a few that stayed put. A quick rundown…

• Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies: As an impending free agent that is enjoying a resurgent campaign on a rebuilding team, Hellickson was the prototypical trade candidate. He’s affordable, effective and was seemingly in demand, with as many as a eight teams connected to him at various points throughout deadline season. However, he’s still with the Phils and now looks likelier to end up the recipient of a qualifying offer than to be traded in August.
• Jeanmar Gomez, Phillies: Gomez entered the season as a middle reliever that was ticketed more for a multi-inning role than high-leverage spots, but he was placed into the ninth inning by manager Pete Mackanin out of necessity early in the year and hasn’t looked back. Gomez is controllable through 2017, so there’s still time to move him if the Phillies wish (be it this month, in the offseason, or next year), but late July was arguably the highest his trade value has ever been.
• Derek Norris, Padres: The Friars reportedly shopped Norris quite heavily in the weeks leading up to the deadline, likely hoping to move him in order to clear a spot on the roster for Austin Hedges. The Rangers, Astros and Brewers were among the teams to show late interest, but Norris ultimately stayed put. He’s controllable through 2018, so the Padres can explore trades for quite some time, but with his replacement absolutely obliterating Triple-A pitching and the Padres aggressively shopping veterans, he seemed a likely candidate to move.
• Kurt Suzuki, Twins: A well-timed hot streak for Suzuki looked like a stroke of good fortune that would allow Minnesota to extract some value in exchange for the free-agent-to-be heading into the deadline. Suzuki was quietly one of the league’s hottest hitters in June and July (.333/.362/.533), making his $6MM salary look plenty affordable. He could go in August, but a trade is obviously more difficult now.
• Jim Johnson, Braves: Atlanta has been willing to trade virtually everyone on its roster other than Freddie Freeman and Julio Teheran, and Johnson was a natural candidate to be dealt. He’s on a cheap one-year deal and has pitched brilliantly since returning from a DL stint in early June. His name was all over the rumor mill heading into last Monday’s deadline, but he’s still in Atlanta a week later. A waiver deal can’t be ruled out, but the Braves will be faced with a much more limited market.
• Zack Cozart, Reds: Cozart looked to be on his way to Seattle early last Monday with the deadline just hours away, but the medical hangups in the Reds’ Jay Bruce trade with the Mets reportedly slowed their ability to finalize the details on the Cozart deal with the Mariners. Cozart is controlled through 2017 and could be shopped again this winter, but an August deal looks unlikely since he’s a lock to get claimed — probably by a team with higher waiver priority than the Mariners. The Reds know they’ll be able to market him to more clubs and drive up the price this offseason.
• Yasiel Puig, Dodgers: There’s some hindsight in play here, as Puig looked like a trade candidate as the deadline loomed but looks more likely to be done as a member of the Dodgers a week later now that they’ve added a new right fielder (Josh Reddick) and demoted Puig to Triple-A. Knowing how much Los Angeles had soured on Puig, it’s fairly surprising that no agreement was reached prior to the non-waiver deadline.
• Danny Valencia, Athletics: Despite the fact that Valencia has been one of Oakland’s most productive hitters this year, the A’s called up prospect Ryon Healy and gave him Valencia’s everyday job at third base. Valencia is bouncing around the diamond now, but with just one year of club control remaining beyond the 2016 season, he looked like a very solid bet to be on the move following his displacement at the hot corner.
• Jake Odorizzi, Rays: Odorizzi and teammate Matt Moore were rumored to be drawing interest from seemingly half the league prior to the deadline, but it was Moore who ended up moving. Odorizzi can be controlled through 2019, so there was no rush to move him, and the Rays ultimately elected to move just one of their young arms.
• Yunel Escobar, Angels: What’s perhaps most surprising about Escobar, who is hitting well on a fourth-place team and has a reasonable club option for the 2017 season, is that his name scarcely surfaced on the rumor circuit. Escobar seemed like an obvious candidate based on his productivity and contract, but perhaps questions about his reputation and the Angels’ desire to compete in 2017 made trade chatter minimal.
• Chris Sale, White Sox: I never considered a Sale trade to be all that likely, but there was plenty of speculation about it, and many were captivated by the idea of one of the game’s best pitchers (and one of the game’s best contracts) changing hands. His clubhouse tirade a week prior to the deadline only fueled speculation about his availability.

All that said, it’s time for everyone to weigh in (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)…

Some moves pan out; others don’t. And then there are those whose importance turns out to be of an entirely different magnitude than had been anticipated. We’ll look at that latter category here.

Among the many great first-half performers, there are many heralded veterans and rising youngsters who were widely expected to do just what they’ve done. But there are also some surprisingly valuable assets who were added for a relative pittance over the winter. Steve Adams already recently covered beneficial minor-league signings, but here are a few who were acquired in other ways:

• David Freese, INF, Pirates — He’s a well-known player, but that doesn’t mean that anybody was expecting this kind of production (.291/.373/.472 over 287 plate appearances). At just $3MM on a one-year term, that late-spring signing is already a certifiable bargain.
• Leonys Martin, OF, Mariners — Seattle has benefited from Martin’s good glovework, wheels, and solid bat — which has produced a surprising double-digit homer tally. Better still, the club now has both Martin and the key piece that it originally gave up to get him (reliever Tom Wilhelmsen).
• Jonathan Villar, SS, Brewers — David Stearns went from Houston to Milwaukee, and it didn’t take long for him to bring a few former ’Stros with him. Villar, picked up in a minor trade, has been perhaps the best get of all with above-average hitting and big-time speed on the bases driving his value.
• Drew Pomeranz, SP, Padres — When we’re comfortably discussing a player as one of the best starting pitching assets at the deadline, it’s safe to say his organization did well to acquire him just months prior for a package of Yonder Alonso and Marc Rzepczynski.
• Dan Straily, SP, Reds — Passed around multiple times at the end of camp, Straily has settled in as a useful arm in Cincinnati. He’s still not going to provide exciting results, but one hundred frames of 4.35 ERA pitching has value.
• Brad Hand, RP, Padres — At the cost of a waiver claim and a 40-man spot, Hand has delivered a 3.10 ERA over 49 1/3 frames. Even better, he’s jumped to a career-best 10.9 K/9, suggesting he may have found another gear upon moving to the pen full-time.
• Dan Otero, RP, Indians — Acquired for cash by Cleveland, Otero is another player who bounced around over the winter. All he has done is post a 1.27 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 over 35 1/3 strong frames.

From this list, which has been the best bargain? (Link for mobile app users.)