MLBTR Polls

As we approach the New Year, five of MLBTR’s top ten free agents remain on the board.  Alex Gordon, Justin Upton, Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes, and Ian Desmond all have widespread interest, of course, but they each seem intent on waiting for the right offer to materialize.  Beyond that, other notables such as Wei-Yin Chen, Kenta Maeda, Dexter Fowler, Scott Kazmir, and Ian Kennedy are still without a ball club.

Last week, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk asked readers to predict who will be the first to come off of the board in each group.  In the “A” squad, nearly 39% of you predicted that Gordon would be the first to sign.  However, this poll was conducted before Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported that the incumbent Royals have been told by the outfielder’s camp that they have “no chance” to re-sign their franchise cornerstone as things currently stand.  Gordon’s camp is seeking a contract that will pay him upwards of $20MM per season, and Kansas City has reportedly only offered $12-$13MM per year over four years.

In the next group of free agents, MLBTR readers ID’d Kazmir as the player most likely to sign first.  Kazmir, unlike other players in that tier, does not have a qualifying offer attached.  Of the players in that poll, less than 4% said that Kennedy would be the next to sign with a team.  Things have been oddly quiet for Kennedy who decided to reject the qualifying offer from the Padres back in November.  The Marlins are known to have interest in him, but he is likely too expensive for them, and we haven’t heard much in the way of specific teams talking with his camp.  Maeda took nearly 24% of the vote – an indication that roughly one-quarter of MLBTR readers expect the free agent market to progress pretty slowly since the deadline for him to sign is on January 8th at 5pm ET/4pm CT.

When looking at the ten best free agents left, who do you think will be the last to land with a team?  (MLBTR app users can weigh in here) 

We expected a lot of competition at the top of the free agent market for starting pitching, and the results have not disappointed. There was plenty of discussion heading into the winter as to which top arm would make the most sensible investment, and now we can begin to assess that with the knowledge of the deals they’ve signed.

While all of the top four starters have landed guarantees of over $100MM, as expected, there have been some creative contract structures that make it impossible to assess the deals simply by comparing total value. Let’s take a closer look (in order of lowest to highest guarantee; links to posts on signings):

Jordan Zimmermann, Tigers: Five years, $110MM. Full no-trade for three seasons, then 19-team no-trade list for final two seasons. Backloaded annual salary structure. Guarantees age 30 through 34 campaigns.

Johnny Cueto, Giants: Six years, $130MM. Opt-out rights after two seasons; also includes club option if opt-out isn’t triggered. Slightly front-loaded structure in which $46MM of guarantee is payable in first two years. Guarantees age 30 through 35 campaigns.

Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks: Six years, $206.5MM. Significant deferrals ($60MM total) reduce present value to around $194MM. Limited no-trade protection. Guarantees age 32 through 37 campaigns.

David Price, Red Sox: Seven years, $217MM. Opt-out rights after three seasons. Guarantees age 30 through 36 campaigns.

The Zimmermann contract looks relatively affordable, but Detroit won’t easily be able to trade him. Cueto could give San Francisco two good seasons at a good price and then leave, but is the risk worth it? The D-backs get one of the best pitchers in the game in Greinke, but it took a huge AAV to buy up his mid thirties. And then there’s Price, who is an in-prime ace but required Boston to promise the highest-ever total guarantee for a pitcher.

So, which of these contracts looks like the best bet to work out?

We rarely hear such dramatically opposing takes on players as Jason Heyward has drawn in free agency. His reported signing today — for eight years & $184MM with the Cubs — only ratcheted things up another level.

It’s long been expected that Heyward would command this level of contract. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted ten years and $200MM. I guessed the same (and profiled Heyward’s free agent case, if you are interested in reading more). And we certainly weren’t out on a limb.

As I noted earlier tonight, Heyward’s deal, which critically includes opt-out rights after both three and four years, is arguably a more valuable compensation package than the $200MM pacts we posited. Regardless whether you think the other offers available were preferable, we can all agree that he was paid like a superstar.

There’s little sense in re-hashing all the arguments for and against Heyward here. The above links contain plenty of information in that regard, and most of our readers have probably already made up their minds.

So, time to make it official: does the MLBTR readership view Heyward as a prime-aged, prime-performing asset or a low-power hitter who just isn’t worth this kind of a deal?

We often hear talk of which team “won” a trade, despite the fact that most deals are driven at least as much by organizational need as they are asset valuation. Truthfully, assessing a swap from that perspective alone is rarely sufficient and often misleading. That being said, it can be an interesting exercise to focus purely on value, especially when a deal involves long-term assets on both sides.

That’s the way this poll will approach the recent trade between the Braves and Angels. Let’s break down the contractual assets that changed hands:

Angels Receive

• Andrelton Simmons, 26, SS — Controlled for five years with $53MM guaranteed. Arguably the game’s best defensive player, Simmons has historically been merely an average hitter for his position. He has shown some power (17 home runs in 2013), though, arguably making him a high-floor player with upside.
• Jose Briceno, 23, C — The backstop, seemingly a minor part of the deal, has yet to advance into the upper minors and struggled last year at the High-A level.

Braves Receive

• Sean Newcomb, 22, LHP — Rising prospect with 6+ years of control available who pitched at Double-A level last year. The power southpaw has significant upside but has battled control issues.
• Chris Ellis, 23, RHP — Fast-moving college arm who could contribute at the back of a rotation. He also reached Double-A in 2015 and can be controlled for 6+ seasons in majors.
• Erick Aybar, 31, SS — Entering his final year of control at a $8.5MM salary, Aybar could be an underappreciated part of this deal. He’s a quality veteran infielder coming off of a down year, but with a history of sturdy defense, good speed, and an above-average bat for a shortstop. He could also become a trade chip this winter or at the trade deadline.
• $2.5MM (representing difference between 2016 salaries of Simmons and Aybar)

Both organizations have new general managers who went out on a limb, in different ways, to strike this deal. And both talked about the value proposition that they faced (in addition to considerations of organizational need).

Angels GM Billy Eppler has many roster holes to fill, and could easily have relied on Aybar, but explained that the trade presented a rare chance to add a top-quality defender at the game’s most important position in the field. “When you have an opportunity, you do it,” he said. “The free agent market does not generally offer a plentiful amount of shortstops. It was a supply-and-demand equation.” Only that kind of premium ability could justify giving up Newcomb’s huge arm, per Eppler, who said that doing so “gives you a lot of pause and makes your stomach hurt a little bit.”

For Braves GM John Coppolella, meanwhile, there were also references to the need to seize an opportunity to acquire hard-to-get assets at an appealing price. “It’s a very tough trade, and a painful trade for us,” he said. “We didn’t want to trade Andrelton Simmons. But we felt this was too good for us to pass up. We felt like we were getting so much talent back in this deal, that if we didn’t make this trade, it would be very tough for us to keep going forward with our plans.” He went on to discuss the importance of Aybar to the swap, noting that the deal was not “some kind of prospect trade,” but rather “was a value-for-value trade that had two really good prospects in it.”

So, both general managers felt so torn about the deal that their comments referenced pain (physical or otherwise). Yet both also saw a value proposition that was simply too good to pass up. The Halos pulled the trigger even though they already had a good shortstop in place for 2016 and will have rotation openings thereafter. And the rebuilding Braves made the deal despite Simmons’ youth and control, not to mention the fact that they have already built a stable of young pitching through other trades.

We’ll have to wait to see how things play out, of course, but it’s still fun to ask: if you were forced to take one side of this deal, from a pure value perspective (i.e., ignoring team-specific context), which one would you take?