Latest On Mets’ Search For Starting Pitching
3:10PM: While the Mets are looking at several free agent pitchers, the New York Post’s Mike Puma tweets that the club is also actively pursuing trade possibilities.
11:30AM: After the Mets saw Jacob deGrom leave for Texas and sign a five-year, $185MM deal with the Rangers, it seems certain they’ll move quickly to find other ways to upgrade their rotation. As Andy Martino of SNY reports, the next best pitcher available, Justin Verlander is now “front and center” for the team, and the team is “determined to land” either Verlander or Carlos Rodon.
The loss of deGrom is surely a tough pill to swallow for the Mets, but after seeing the contract he received from Texas, the opportunity to bring in Verlander on a shorter deal may well appeal to owner Steve Cohen and co. While Verlander is older, and will play the 2023 season at 40, he is coming off a dominant Cy Young-winning season which saw him hurl 175 innings of 1.75 ERA ball, striking out 220 batters in the process.
A potential signing of Verlander would likely come at a higher annual salary than the $37MM deGrom received, but only over a two or three year deal, and it does seem like that is their preferred option for older pitchers. As Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported, their offer to deGrom was around three-years, $120MM. Pivoting to Verlander on a shorter term deal would give them a bit more payroll flexibility over the long term while maintaining the 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation with Max Scherzer that the Mets covet.
While the Mets have shown their financial muscle in recent years, there are other teams interested in Verlander (such as the Yankees and Dodgers) so it’s no guarantee that they land him. In that case, it seems their next option would be Rodon. The left-hander is coming off a strong platform year in San Francisco, where he tossed 178 innings of 2.88 ERA ball with 237 strikeouts.
Rodon is a lot younger than Verlander (he turns 30 in a week) so would likely be looking at a longer term contract. MLBTR predicted he’d land a five-year, $140MM contract, which would give him an AAV of $28MM. While it seems Rodon is their second choice to Verlander, they are very much in on him and met with him on Zoom earlier this week.
While a frontline starter to pair with Scherzer looks to be the top priority for the Mets, Will Sammon of The Athletic adds that they’re looking to also add a starter from the mid-tier of options as well. Martino cites Andrew Heaney, Taijuan Walker, Kyle Gibson, Ross Stripling and Jose Quintana as the main options for the team in that category. Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that they’ve been talking with Jameson Taillon as well.
Zach Eflin‘s three-year, $40MM deal with the Rays came in one year and $18MM higher than MLBTR’s prediction, and does suggest that the market for mid-tier starting pitching could be quite lucrative this year.
The Mets currently have Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Elieser Hernandez penciled into the rotation. The addition of either Rodon or Verlander plus a solid, mid-tier option would give them a formidable rotation, and allow them to shift two of Megill, Peterson and Hernandez into depth/long-relief roles.
Significant Gap Remains In Discussions Between Astros, Justin Verlander
The Astros and Justin Verlander remain “far apart” in discussions about a new contract, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The nine-time All-Star is part of a trio of top free agent starters alongside Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodón.
The biggest stumbling block seems to be on the AL Cy Young winner’s desire for a third guaranteed season. Heyman writes that Verlander is seeking a deal around $130MM over three years — the same figure received by former teammate Max Scherzer from the Mets last winter. Houston owner Jim Crane similarly suggested Verlander was pointing to the Scherzer contract as precedent last month.
The Scherzer deal indeed seems the closest comparison to Verlander, although their situations aren’t perfectly analogous. While both are all-time great pitchers still pitching near the top of their games deeper into their careers, a three-year bet on Scherzer was probably easier for a team to stomach than that same term for Verlander. Scherzer signed in advance of his age-37 season, while the latter will be three years older at the start of his next contract. Verlander’s two years removed from a Tommy John procedure that cost him almost all of the 2020-21 campaigns, but he’s bounced back to pitch at pre-surgery levels this year. Scherzer had avoided any injury of that magnitude in the past decade, topping 170 innings in every full season since 2008 before this year.
While that seems to tip things in Scherzer’s favor, their pure performance track records are mostly without complaint. Verlander had a 1.75 ERA across 175 innings this past season; Scherzer posted a 2.46 mark in 2021. The latter missed more bats, striking out 34.1% of opponents against Verlander’s 27.8% mark. Fanning just under 28% of opponents is still excellent for a starting pitcher, though, and Verlander maintained top-tier control while sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball.
Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reported in November that Crane was reluctant to offer more than a two-year deal in the $60-70MM range. That’s shy of the Scherzer deal both by a year and a decent amount of annual salary ($30-35MM versus $43.333MM). It’s unclear if Houston has shown any willingness to raise their proposed salary figure in the few weeks since then, but Heyman reports they’re still opposed to a three-year guarantee.
Were Verlander to leave Houston, he’d draw no shortage of interest from the league’s big-market behemoths. He has already had meetings with the Dodgers and Mets, and Heyman has previously suggested the Yankees are also in the market.
NL Notes: Pirates, Santana, Reds, Phillies, Mets, Kahnle
The Pirates’ signing of Carlos Santana was in part driven by the team’s belief that next year’s restriction on infield shifts will help to boost the veteran switch-hitter’s production, general manager Ben Cherington told reporters after finalizing the deal this week (link via Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). Beyond that, Santana’s reputation as a leader and mentor for younger players appealed to the club, as did a strong batted-ball profile that featured quality marks in metrics like average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and more.
At one year and $6.725MM, the Santana signing was somewhat remarkably the largest free-agent commitment given out by Cherington since he was hired to guide the Pirates’ latest rebuilding effort back in 2019. Cherington stressed there are other needs to address and that the Pirates, currently projected by Roster Resource to carry just a $54MM payroll, are hopeful of completing some additional deals.
A few more items out of the National League…
- The Reds inked local product Luke Maile to a one-year contract, setting the stage for him to serve as Tyler Stephenson’s backup. However, general manager Nick Krall suggested after signing Maile the team isn’t closed off to the possibility of adding a third catcher to the big league roster (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). “There is a chance,” Krall noted, pointing out that the addition of the universal designated hitter gives teams the flexibility to more easily work with three backstops. The Reds were reportedly in touch with Tucker Barnhart about a potential reunion before signing Maile, though there’s no indication they’re strongly pursuing him after coming to terms with Maile. Still, Stephenson missed significant time in 2022 with a broken thumb, a concussion and a broken collarbone, and he also has 147 innings of big league experience at first base. There’s some sense to bringing in another catcher — particularly if it’s someone who can handle multiple spots on the diamond to give the Reds some more flexibility.
- The Phillies were dealt a tough blow last week with the revelation Bryce Harper required a full Tommy John procedure. The Phils announced Harper was expected to return as a bat-only option by the All-Star Break while playing the outfield again at some point in the second half. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski left open the possibility of an earlier return this week (link via Matt Gelb of the Athletic) but suggested he didn’t want to project any kind of more optimistic timeline. “In my own mind, I’m looking at the All-Star break. Anything that’s before that is great,” Dombrowski said. The veteran executive downplayed the need for the Phils to add an outfielder in response to the surgery, pointing out that any pickup would lose his path to everyday playing time once Harper returned. The DH-only role would force Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos into the corner outfield regularly to flank center fielder Brandon Marsh, with righty-hitting Matt Vierling on hand as the fourth outfielder. Dombrowski suggested that while the Phils will be “open-minded” to the possibility of adding on the grass, “it’s not a priority for us.“
- Adding to the bullpen is certainly a key objective for the Mets, who saw each of Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez and Trevor May hit free agency. Will Sammon of the Athletic reports that New York is one of several teams to have looked into Tommy Kahnle, although he cautions it’s presently unclear how interested the Mets are in the free agent right-hander. Kahnle is an interesting upside play. He lost almost all of 2020-21 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and renewed arm inflammation cost him almost four months with the Dodgers this past season. Kahnle allowed only four runs in 12 2/3 innings when healthy enough to pitch, though, striking out 14 against three walks. The 33-year-old racked up swinging strikes at a massive 17.2% clip while leaning on his stellar changeup more than three-quarters of the time. Kahnle posted a 3.67 ERA with an elite 35.5% strikeout rate over 72 appearances with the Yankees in 2019, his most recent full season.
Mets To Meet With Carlos Rodón
The Mets have a rotation to rebuild and are interested in lefty Carlos Rodón. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported yesterday that the club had been in contact with the free agent, while Andy Martino of SNY reports today that the two sides will be meeting this week. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports that the two sides will have a Zoom meeting today.
Rodón, 30 next month, is coming off an excellent two-year run and is one of the top free agent pitchers this offseason, alongside Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander. After missing most of 2019 and 2020 due to injuries, Rodón bounced back in 2021 by posting an ERA of 2.37, along with a 34.6% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 37.7% ground ball rate. He did spend some time on the injured list and only logged 132 2/3 innings on the year, which was concerning enough for the White Sox to decide against issuing him a qualifying offer.
He signed on with the Giants for 2022 and pushed the injury question marks even farther behind him, getting up to 178 innings with a 2.88 ERA, 33.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 34.1% ground ball rate. His two-year deal with the Giants allowed him to opt out after the first year if he tallied 110 innings, which he did with ease. He made the easy decision to opt out and then decline the qualifying offer that the Giants extended. Even with that QO attached, MLBTR predicted Rodón for a contract of $140MM over five years, an average annual value of $28MM.
The interest from the Mets is quite understandable, given the uncertainty in their rotation. deGrom, Taijuan Walker and Chris Bassitt all reached free agency recently, leaving the club with Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco as their two remaining incumbents. They have some internal candidates to fill the backend of their rotation, such as Tylor Megill and David Peterson, but they are naturally looking to improve that overall picture before Opening Day rolls around. They appear to be casting a wide net in their efforts, as they have already been connected to Verlander, Andrew Heaney, Kodai Senga and Jameson Taillon, in addition to trying to keep deGrom in Queens.
The Mets’ payroll for 2023 is current around $235MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax number of $247MM. It’s unclear exactly how high the club plans to push their payroll but a ballpark figure of $300MM has been floated, per Heyman. That gives the club plenty of room for now, but some of their pursuits are potentially looking for deals around $30MM or even $40MM. Given that the club is also looking into outfielders, such as bringing back Brandon Nimmo, and even their high-spending ways will start to reach their limits eventually.
The Mets certainly won’t be alone in their pursuit of Rodón either, as he’s already been connected to the Rangers, Dodgers, Twins and Yankees, with the Giants interested in bringing him back to San Francisco as well.
Mets To Promote Eric Chavez To Bench Coach, Jeremy Barnes To Hitting Coach
The Mets are promoting Eric Chavez from hitting coach to bench coach, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Glenn Sherlock, who’d served as bench coach during Buck Showalter’s first season at the helm, will remain on staff and work more closely with the team’s catchers. Meanwhile, Heyman reports that assistant hitting coach Jeremy Barnes is getting a bump to the lead hitting coach job to replace Chavez.
Chavez and Barnes were each new additions to New York’s staff last offseason. The former was initially slated to serve as assistant hitting coach with the Yankees, but he made the jump to the lead role in Queens just a couple weeks after joining the Yankees’ staff. His rapid ascent up the ranks continues with the nod as Showalter’s top lieutenant in year two.
A six-time Gold Glove winner during his playing days with the A’s, Chavez has spent some time in the front office and managed in the Angels’ farm system during his post-playing time. He’s drawn some big league managerial attention in the past, but the 2022 campaign was his first on an MLB coaching staff. The 44-year-old could certainly find his name in managerial searches during future offseasons.
Barnes had been the Mets’ director of player initiatives before getting the bump to the MLB staff last winter. The 35-year-old now gets a lead hitting instructor nod for the first time. A Notre Dame graduate, Barnes played in the Phillies farm system for four seasons. After his playing career wrapped up, he spent time in the Astros’ front office before joining the Mets. Heyman notes the Mets were concerned about the possibility of losing Barnes to a promotion with another team, presumably to fill a hitting coach vacancy elsewhere. New York valued him highly enough they bumped him to the lead role themselves.
Pitching Notes: Brash, Lugo, Red Sox, Raley
Matt Brash‘s debut in the majors resulted in a 4.44 ERA over 50 2/3 innings, with pronounced splits as a starter (7.65 ERA) and as a reliever (2.35), since returning from a minor league demotion in a relief role worked wonders for Brash’s effectiveness. Unsurprisingly, “Brash has generated a ton of [trade] interest after his rookie season,” Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times writes, “but it would take a lot” for the Mariners to consider moving the 24-year-old. If anything, the M’s have faith that Brash could still be part of a rotation, given the club’s plan to stretch him out for Spring Training.
Brash’s 14.9% walk rate was the third-highest of any pitcher in baseball with at least 50 innings pitched in 2022, and he also allowed a lot of hard contact. On the plus side, the hard-throwing Brash had an above-average 27.9% strikeout rate, and elite curveball spin to go along with excellent whiff and barrel rates. There’s a lot to like about a young pitcher who still has only 179 1/3 combined innings on his record at the Major and minor league levels, and rival teams are naturally seeing if the win-now Mariners might be open to moving a younger pitcher for a more established MLB-level player. Nothing can truly be ruled out given the aggressiveness of Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto, yet it’s probably likelier that one of Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen are dealt from the Mariners’ pitching mix.
More pitching-related items from around baseball….
- Back on November 14, The Athletic’s Will Sammon reported that the Mets weren’t one of the many teams who had checked in with free agent righty Seth Lugo. Almost two weeks later, the two sides still haven’t been in touch, and “the Mets do not view Lugo as a starter,” Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. Lugo is reportedly open to signing as either a starter or as a reliever, and at least some of the other suitors have some interest in Lugo’s potential as a rotation piece. Speculatively, this could translate to at least an incentive-heavy contract for Lugo, with more bonus money available if he ends up making more starts than relief appearances. It could be that the Mets simply don’t value Lugo at this price, and are ready to look elsewhere in their search for bullpen help.
- The Red Sox pursued left-hander Brooks Raley in free agency last year, and offered Raley a two-year deal worth roughly $8MM, according to The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier. Raley ended up signing a two-year, $10MM contract with the Rays, and then had a strong season for Boston’s division rival (Raley’s year included a 0.00 ERA over six innings against the Sox). Between missing out on Raley and the general lack of quality in Boston’s 2022 bullpen, Speier writes that the Red Sox “came to regret not pursuing relief help more aggressively,” and opines whether or not the team might put more emphasis on relievers this winter. Chaim Bloom hasn’t spent much on relief pitching in his first three offseasons as the Red Sox chief baseball officer, and thus far this winter, Speier notes that the Sox haven’t yet paid much attention to the relief market, with a larger (and understandable) focus on starting pitching and re-signing Xander Bogaerts.
Mets Hoping To Re-Sign Adam Ottavino
As the Mets look to rebuild their bullpen, the team is hoping to bring back veteran Adam Ottavino, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. Puma adds that Ottavino is thought to be seeking a multi-year deal, while the Mets are looking to keep it to a one-year guarantee.
Ottavino, 37, was a terrific setup man in Queens last year, tossing 65 2/3 innings of 2.06 ERA relief work. He halved his walk rate from a year earlier in Boston, dropping from 12.7% to post a 6.2% rate in 2023 while still maintaining a strong 30.6% strikeout rate. He also posted a 51.9% ground-ball rate, his best figure since 2016.
It was a bounce back year for the Brooklyn-native, who’d struggled in his previous two campaigns. Signed to a three-year, $27MM deal by the Yankees in 2019 after a number years of quality relief work in Colorado, Ottavino was dominant in his first season in the Bronx, pitching to a 1.90 ERA in 66 1/3 innings. He took a major step back a year later, winding up with a 5.89 ERA in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. That prompted the Yankees to flip him to the rival Red Sox, and while there was some improvement, his 4.21 ERA in 62 innings was still well short of his best.
That allowed the Mets to sign him to a modest $4MM guarantee for 2022, and he’ll surely be seeking a significant raise on that figure this winter. As Puma notes, the Mets believe Ottavino enjoys pitching in his hometown, but it’s unclear if that’d be enough for him to forgo a possible multi-year deal elsewhere if the Mets are only willing to offer him a one-year deal.
The Mets are rebuilding their bullpen after the departures of Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor Williams, Mychal Givens, Trevor May and Joely Rodriguez to free agency. They’ve already re-signed Edwin Diaz to record-breaking contract, while they’ve claimed Stephen Ridings from the Yankees and acquired Jeff Brigham and Elieser Hernandez from the Marlins. There’s still work to do though, particularly in the high-leverage spots so the Mets have plenty of motivation to try and bring back Ottavino.
Just about any contending club could do with a bullpen arm like Ottavino, so the veteran should have plenty of interest. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $14MM guarantee, and the likes of the Brewers, Yankees, Phillies, Braves, Giants and Blue Jays could have interest among many others.
Mets Sign Denyi Reyes To Minor League Deal
The Mets announced that they have signed two pitchers to minor league deals: right-hander Denyi Reyes and left-hander Zach Muckenhirn. Each will be invited to major league Spring Training.
Reyes, 26, is the only one of the two with major league experience. He cracked the big leagues with the Orioles last year, tossing 7 2/3 innings with a 2.35 ERA. Over his 54 Triple-A innings last year, however, he posted a 7.17 ERA but surely deserved better. His 22% strikeout rate was close to average and his 3.3% walk rate was excellent. A .361 BABIP and 57.8% strand rate helped to make his results worse than perhaps they should have been. He was outrighted in September and elected free agency at the end of the season.
Muckenhirn, 28 in February, has yet to reach the big leagues. Drafted by the Orioles in the 11th round in 2016, he stuck with that organization until he was released in April of 2021 and signed a minors deal with the White Sox. He spent all of 2022 at Triple-A, throwing 55 innings with a 3.11 ERA, 23.8% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate and 41.7% ground ball rate.
The Mets have a lot of work to do this winter in re-building their pitching staff. Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker have departed the rotation for free agency while Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez and Mychal Givens have left the bullpen. Those players are all still free agents except for Rodriguez, who signed with the Red Sox earlier today. The club has already made a couple of moves to compensate, re-signing Edwin Díaz, claiming William Woods and Stephen Ridings off waivers, and trading for Elieser Hernández and Jeff Brigham. Today’s signings of Reyes and Muckenhirn add to the club’s bullpen depth.
MLB Finds No Collusion Between Yankees, Mets Regarding Aaron Judge’s Free Agency
Major League Baseball has determined there was no agreement between the Mets and Yankees to suppress the market for top free agent Aaron Judge, reports Sean Gregory of TIME. The league had opened an investigation into the two teams last week after the MLB Players Association had raised some concerns about an article published by Andy Martino of SNY earlier this month.
Martino wrote the Mets were unlikely to pursue Judge in free agency, in part because of a mutual respect between Mets owner Steve Cohen and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner.
As part of that piece, Martino wrote: “Talking to Mets people about this all through the year, the team in Queens sees Judge as a Yankee, uniquely tailored to be an icon in their uniform, stadium and branding efforts. Owners Steve Cohen and Hal Steinbrenner enjoy a mutually respectful relationship, and do not expect to upend that with a high-profile bidding war. The only way people involved can see the Mets changing course and pursuing Judge would be if the Yankees somehow declared themselves totally out of the bidding.”
To be clear, Martino didn’t characterize that as the sole reason the Mets could choose to sit out the Judge bidding, nor did he expressly state Cohen and Steinbrenner had talked about Judge’s free agency. He went on to note the Mets could be wary of signing another deal in excess of $300MM after extending Francisco Lindor last year.
The league requested communications between Cohen and Steinbrenner last week to determine if the owners formulated any kind of agreement for the Mets not to pursue Judge as a free agent, which would have been a collusive violation of the collective bargaining agreement. Mike Puma of the New York Post writes the league found nothing in those communications to support a finding of collusion.
That doesn’t necessarily bring the matter to a close, as the MLBPA still has the right to file a grievance on Judge’s behalf. If it chooses to do so, the case would go in front of an independent arbitrator. The union would have to demonstrate both that illicit communications between the Mets and Yankees did occur and that Judge’s market was impacted by those talks. The players union declined comment to both TIME and the New York Post as to whether it planned to dispute the league’s determination.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic also wrote last week the union could take issue with unrelated comments made by Astros owner Jim Crane to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com regarding the asking price of free agent ace Justin Verlander. Whether it plans to pursue a grievance in that matter also remains unclear, but the league was not expected to open an investigation into Crane’s statements.
Mets Interested In Jameson Taillon
The Mets have already been linked to several available starters early in the offseason, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that Jameson Taillon is one of the names the club has been in touch with during its ongoing pitching search. Taillon (who just turned 31 on November 18) is a free agent for the first time in his career, and he ranks 14th on MLBTR’s list of the winter’s top 50 free agents.
The right-hander is no stranger to the Big Apple, having spent the last two seasons with the Yankees. Taillon missed most of 2019 and all of 2020 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he rebounded to post a 4.08 ERA over 321 2/3 innings since the start of the 2021 campaign. Taillon has a below-average strikeout rate and he returned from that TJ recovery with below-average fastball velocity, but he has excellent spin rates and strong control. Taillon’s 4.4% walk rate ranked in the 94th percentile of all pitchers in 2022.
Perhaps most importantly, Taillon has been healthy over the last two seasons, apart from a three-week IL stint with an ankle injury in September 2021. Taillon has undergone two Tommy John surgeries and battled testicular cancer, so the Yankees certainly assumed some risk when they acquired Taillon in a deal with the Pirates during the 2020-21 offseason. Fortunately, Taillon has avoided any further major heath problems, and now (if anything) looks like something of a reliable veteran innings-eater that could fit into any team’s rotation.
The Yankees opted against issuing a qualifying offer to Taillon, so he was able to hit the open market without any draft compensation attached to his services. MLBTR projected Taillon for a four-year, $56MM contract, but with the caveat that the righty’s Tommy John history could make it difficult for him to land that fourth guaranteed year.
Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Taijuan Walker are all free agents, leaving the Mets with some major holes to fill in the rotation. Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco will certainly fill two of the five spots, and David Peterson, Tylor Megill, and recent trade acquisition Elieser Hernandez could end up all battling for one available spot, or possibly all be depth options depending on how many pitchers are added or re-signed. As one might expect, the Mets have been aggressive in exploring the market, checking in on the top names (deGrom, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga), more second-tier starters like Taillon or Andrew Heaney, and back-of-the-rotation depth like Hernandez.