Dodgers, Rockies, Reds Exploring Center Field Market
Any chance of the Dodgers retaining Cody Bellinger at a lower price after they non-tendered him were dashed this afternoon, with the 2019 NL MVP agreeing to terms on a $17.5MM pact with the Cubs. Shortly after news of that agreement broke, L.A. manager Dave Roberts met with reporters and confirmed the club is scouring the market for center field help (via Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times).
Aside from Aaron Judge, the free agent class is handily led by Brandon Nimmo. The longtime Met is coming off arguably a career-best season in which he hit .274/.367/.433 over a personal-high 673 plate appearances. Headed into his age-30 campaign, the lefty-swinging Nimmo is widely expected to command a deal that tops nine figures. Nimmo has drawn interest from the Yankees, Giants, Rays, Mariners and Blue Jays in addition to the incumbent Mets. There’s been no concrete reports of any interest on L.A.’s part, though they’re certainly capable of exploring that market.
Teams not interested in making that kind of commitment are facing a rather sharp drop to the next tier. It’s possible that applies to the Dodgers, and it’s certainly a factor for the Rockies and Reds. Colorado general manager Bill Schmidt tells Danielle Allentuck of the Colorado Springs Gazette the team is seeking a left-handed hitter, preferably a player who can factor into center field (Twitter link). Nimmo fits that description, but both Allentuck and Nick Groke of the Athletic suggested yesterday he’d be too pricey for the Rockies.
Meanwhile, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports the Reds are seeking center field help and have looked to the free agent market. As with Colorado, Nimmo’s certainly out of the question for Cincinnati. Nightengale suggests the team is likely looking at one-year offers for hitters of interest. Payroll limitations have loomed over the Reds in each of the last two offseasons, and GM Nick Krall told reporters yesterday the front office has “a little bit of money” to spend this winter but cautioned they “don’t have a ton” at their disposal.
With Bellinger off the board, the market beyond Nimmo is very thin. Kevin Kiermaier is perhaps the only regular center fielder available, and he’s coming off a .228/.281/.369 showing with the Rays before his season was cut short by hip surgery. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweeted this afternoon the Mets could look into Kiermaier if Nimmo signs elsewhere. Beyond the longtime Ray, the market is led by depth options like Rafael Ortega, Adam Engel and Jackie Bradley Jr. Perhaps teams could look to Andrew Benintendi or Joey Gallo given the scarcity of the center field market, although both players have worked exclusively in the corners for the past couple seasons.
It’s a similar story on the trade market, where there aren’t many obvious candidates. Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds will be the subject of renewed speculation after his trade request became public last week, but the Bucs have maintained it won’t increase their likelihood of actually making a move. The Diamondbacks are known to be open to offers on a number of their young outfielders but only in deals that’d net them MLB help. Speculatively speaking, players like Michael A. Taylor or Trent Grisham could plausibly come up in trade discussions, but there’s been no indication either is currently on the block.
Mets Sign Three To Minor League Deals
The Mets have signed three right-handed relievers to minor league deals, according to their transactions tracker at MLB.com. Tommy Hunter, Sean Reid-Foley and Jimmy Yacabonis have joined the organization and will presumably be invited to major league Spring Training, though no formal announcement of that nature has been made.
Hunter is the oldest and most experienced of the bunch, as he’s currently 36 years old and has 494 MLB games under his belt. He has an even ERA of 4.00 thus far in his career, often succeeding with strong control. His career walk rate is 5.5%, well below this year’s MLB average for relievers of 9.1%. Outside of an injury-marred 2021, he’s never posted a rate higher than 6.9% in any single season. In 2022, he posted a 2.42 ERA but injuries limited him to just 22 1/3 innings. That’s been a recurring issue in recent years, as Hunter hasn’t reached 25 innings in a season since 2018.
Reid-Foley, 27, has pitched in the past five MLB seasons, the first three with the Blue Jays and the last three with the Mets. He came to New York from Toronto in the Steven Matz trade. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May and will miss at least part of the 2023 season. He was non-tendered by the Mets at the end of the season. He has a 4.66 ERA in 102 1/3 career innings, along with a 23.6% strikeout rate, 13.7% walk rate and 40.4% ground ball rate.
Yacabonis, 31 in March, put up an 8.36 ERA in 14 big league innings in 2022 but was much better in the minors. He tossed 33 2/3 innings down on the farm for various teams with a 3.21 ERA, 31.4% strikeout rate and 10.9% walk rate. He was outrighted by the Rays in November and elected free agency.
The Mets have a lot of work to do in rebuilding their bullpen as Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez and Trevor May all hit free agency. Edwin Díaz was also in that group, though he was quickly re-signed. They will likely have more moves to come in bolstering the bullpen, but it’s understandable why they would look to add multiple depth options to the system.
KBO’s Kia Tigers Close To Signing Adonis Medina
Former Mets pitcher Adonis Medina is close to heading to Korea and joining the Kia Tigers, according to MHN Sports (relayed by Sung Min Kim).
Medina, 26 later this month, pitched 23 2/3 innings for the Mets this year, striking out 15.5% of batters and walking 5.5% on the way to a 6.08 ERA. Advanced metrics looked upon his performance a little more favorably, with his FIP coming in at 4.04. He spent most of the season shuttling between the big leagues and Triple-A and was optioned nine times during the year. At Triple-A, he had a 4.65 ERA through 31 innings.
Signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Phillies back in 2014, he worked his way up through their minor league system before making his debut in 2020. Across 2020-21, Medina threw 11 2/3 innings for the Phillies for a 3.86 ERA.
The Pirates claimed him off waivers prior to the 2022 campaign, and spent the spring with Pittsburgh before they designated him for assignment at the start of the season and subsequently traded him to the Mets. The Mets outrighted him off the roster in September and he elected free agency at the end of the season.
Medina will head to the KBO young enough that a strong season or two over there could stand him in good stead to return to the States and seek big league deals in the future.
Brandon Nimmo Notes: Mets, Rockies
Brandon Nimmo will make an in-person appearance at the Winter Meetings on Tuesday, adding to the intrigue surrounding his market. As the top center fielder available, Nimmo has been publicly linked to the Mariners, Giants, Blue Jays, Rays, and Yankees, and probably several other unknown teams have also checked in on his availability.
Despite all this interest, it remains possible that Nimmo might remain in Queens, as Mets GM Billy Eppler told MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and other reports that the Mets have continued to have “dialogue” with Nimmo and his representatives. As the offseason got underway, reports surfaced that the Mets were prioritizing re-signing Nimmo and Edwin Diaz from their large pool of internal free agents. Diaz, of course, re-signed with New York before the free agent market even officially opened, inking a five-year, $102MM deal to remain with the Mets.
Nimmo remains available almost a month after Diaz put pen to paper, though that isn’t surprising given the large amount of interest in Nimmo’s services, and the possibility that his next contract could top Diaz’s dollar figure. Also, Scott Boras is Nimmo’s agent, and Boras usually encourages his clients to fully test the open market before considering circling back to their former teams.
Pitching has been the chief focus of the Mets’ offseason to date, with Diaz re-signed and now Justin Verlander agreeing to a deal with the Amazins today. While the Mets continue to look at more rotation candidates, it stands to reason that with an ace pitcher and a star closer now checked off the winter to-do list, Eppler and company can now turn more attention to addressing center field.
The Rockies are one team that no longer seems to be pursuing Nimmo, as both Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette and Nick Groke of the Athletic feel the club isn’t a fit considering Nimmo’s desire for a long-term contract. While the Rox are looking for outfielders, they would prefer a shorter-term option so that any of the club’s top outfield prospects (i.e. Zac Veen) don’t get blocked. To this end, Cody Bellinger continues to be an Colorado’s radar, as Bellinger is reportedly only looking for a one-year contract in order to re-establish his market.
Mets, Phillies, Cubs, Orioles Among Teams Pursuing Jameson Taillon
Right-hander Jameson Taillon is one of the top names on the second tier of free-agent starting pitchers this winter, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that the Mets, Phillies, Cubs and Orioles are among the teams pursuing him. The Mets were already known to have interest in Taillon, as SNY’s Andy Martino recently reported that they made a strong effort to close a deal with the right-hander last week. Martino noted that with Justin Verlander atop the Mets’ priority list, the Mets might not be inclined to beat the market for Taillon.
Any of the four teams in today’s report would represent a perfectly logical landing spot for Taillon, who did not receive a qualifying offer from the Yankees and thus can be signed without the forfeiture of any draft picks or international bonus space. There’s some injury risk, to be sure, as Taillon has twice undergone Tommy John surgery and heavy contracts for two-time Tommy John patients are fairly rare.
That said, however, Taillon has reestablished himself as a quality mid-rotation hurler since his 2021 return from that second ligament replacement operation. In two seasons with the Yankees, the former No. 2 overall draft pick and top prospect pitched to a combined 4.08 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate and a strong 5.7% walk rate. The Yankees carefully monitored his workload in his first post-surgery season in ’21, as Taillon averaged just shy of five innings per start in his 29 trips to the mound. However, he averaged better than 5 2/3 innings per start in 2022, improved his ERA, lowered his walk rate and upped his ground-ball rate.
It’s hardly a surprise that the Mets have been fairly aggressive in their early efforts to land Taillon, as they recently lost Jacob deGrom to the Rangers and also saw each of Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Trevor Williams reach free agency this winter. At the moment, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson and Tylor Megill would comprise the top four spots in manager Buck Showalter’s rotation.
Even with a pronounced need in the rotation, the Mets are still projected by Roster Resource to carry a $234.7MM payroll — with a hearty $246.6MM of luxury obligations on hand at present. The Mets paid the luxury tax in 2022, so they’d be a second-time offender and thus face steeper penalties in 2023. They’re facing a 30% tax on the first $20MM over the tax line, plus 42% for the next $20MM, 75% for the next $20MM and 90% on any money spent thereafter.
The Phillies, too, are trending toward being a repeat luxury tax payor. Though they’re currently more than $40MM shy of the $233MM tax barrier, they’re known to be heavily interested in the high-end shortstops in free agency and are also looking into rotation help (hence the apparent Taillon interest). Taillon would slot into the rotation behind co-aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, joining Ranger Suarez and likely Bailey Falter to form the starting five in Philly. Prospects Andrew Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry loom in the upper minors.
From a financial perspective, it’s different story for the Cubs and Orioles, neither of whom are anywhere near the luxury tax. Both clubs, however, are looking to add some win-now pieces after rebuilding efforts of varying extent. The Cubs have Marcus Stroman, Kyle Hendricks and Justin Steele locked into rotation spots in 2023, but the fourth and fifth spots remain more fluid. Keegan Thompson, Adrian Sampson and Hayden Wesneski are all candidates currently, but it seems likely Chicago will add at least one starting pitcher this winter.
Over in Baltimore, the O’s have already agreed to a one-year deal with Kyle Gibson, but Taillon would be more of a statement addition who’s viewed as a multi-year piece of the puzzle. Beyond Gibson, the O’s have Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish, Austin Voth, Bruce Zimmermann, Spenser Watkins and Mike Baumann as options, to say nothing of top prospects Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall. Baltimore also hopes to welcome lefty John Means back from Tommy John surgery later in the 2023 season.
There are surely plenty of other clubs who’ve held discussions with Taillon and his representatives at Excel Sports. That he’s one of the non-ace starters who’s still reasonably young — he’ll pitch all of next season at 31 — and won’t require any draft compensation could make interest sufficient enough to make him one of the first notable starters off the board. We ranked Taillon 14th on our annual Top 50 Free Agent list, predicting a four-year deal at $56MM
Rick Porcello Announces Retirement
Former American League Cy Young winner Rick Porcello seemingly stepped away from baseball with scarcely a word about his decision to do so following the 2020 season, but in a new appearance on the Bradfo Sho with WEEI’s Rob Bradford, the 33-year-old righty publicly confirmed for the first time that he has indeed retired.
“I wanted to be with my family,” said Porcello, who also tells Bradford that he and his brother built a house together in the two years since he’s last taken a big league mound. “I wanted to get back into that type of lifestyle and be around them because every year that you’re gone is another year where your parents are getting older, and your brothers are getting older.”
Porcello acknowledged that his struggles in his final two Major League seasons muted interest during the 2020-21 offseason, though it’s known that he at least drew some interest in a potential reunion with the Tigers that winter. No deal ever materialized, however, and Porcello has now apparently opted to dedicate his time and efforts to his family and to helping grow youth baseball in Vermont, where he and his brother built their aforementioned home. In addition to the full audio of the interview, Bradford has several lengthy quotes from Porcello on his decision to retire, on his struggles in 2019-20, on building that house and on his commitment to youth baseball in his column at WEEI.
Though his final game came in his age-31 season, Porcello still pitched a dozen full seasons in the Majors, thanks largely to the fact that he debuted as a 20-year-old rookie less than two years after the Tigers selected him with the No. 27 overall pick in the draft. Porcello finished third in 2009’s American League Rookie of the Year voting on the heels of a 3.96 ERA that he spun over the life of 170 2/3 innings.
Porcello was briefly optioned to Triple-A Toledo the following summer but otherwise never returned to the minors and practically never missed a start due to injury. The right-hander landed on the injured list just once in his 12-year career — a three-week absence due to a minor triceps strain in Aug. 2015. Porcello was the consummate workhorse, averaging 31 starts and 185 innings per season from 2009-19. He worked to a 4.36 ERA in 2037 1/3 innings along the way, and for a few years in the midst of that span, he peaked as one of baseball’s better pitchers.
At age 25 in 2014, Porcello enjoyed a breakout season, tallying a then-career-high 204 2/3 innings with a 3.43 ERA. Strikeouts were never a big part of the sinker specialist’s game, but Porcello thrived that season due to a tiny 4.9% walk rate, a strong 49% grounder rate and an average of just 0.79 homers per nine innings pitched. The Tigers, looking for some extra punch in their lineup, traded Porcello to the Red Sox in a deal that netted Yoenis Cespedes, Gabe Speier and Alex Wilson at the 2014 Winter Meetings, when both Porcello and Cespedes were just a season away from free agency.
However, Boston apparently had little intent of simply “renting” Porcello for a year, as the Sox inked him to a four-year, $82.5MM contract extension that spring. Porcello’s first season at Fenway set off alarm bells, as he tied a career-worst 4.92 ERA. The red flags disappeared when he not only rebounded in 2016 but shattered all of his career rate stats en route to a 3.15 ERA, an MLB-best 5.91 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a narrow win over former teammate Justin Verlander in 2016 American League Cy Young voting.
That season proved to be Porcello’s individual peak, but Porcello called the 2018 season “the crowning achievement in my career” due to a more team-oriented accolade, as he and the Red Sox shook off a pair of ALDS exits in 2016-17 to take home a World Series title. Porcello started 28 games for the ’18 Red Sox and pitched to a 4.28 ERA, adding 15 1/3 frames of 3.52 ERA ball in the postseason that year — including a Game 4, series-clinching ALDS victory at Yankee Stadium in which he held Boston’s archrivals to one run in five strong innings.
The following season, 2019, marked the beginning of the end for Porcello’s run in the Majors. He was tagged for a 5.52 ERA in 174 1/3 innings before heading out into free agency and signing a one-year deal with the Mets. True to form, he took the ball every fifth day for the Mets during the pandemic-shortened season and started a dozen of their 60 games, but Porcello’s struggles continued as he logged a 5.64 ERA in 59 innings.
In chatting with Bradford, Porcello acknowledged unsuccessfully trying to keep up with leaguewide changes that saw four-seam fastballs and sliders become increasingly en vogue; indeed, he threw a career-high 31.1% four-seamers and career-low 24.5% sinkers in 2019, and in 2020 he threw a career-high 29.2% sliders. None of those tweaks worked in his favor, and Porcello added that the pandemic afforded him “new perspective on life” and played a role in his decision to prioritize time spent with family rather than seek out a rebound campaign on the mound.
Though he’s retired at a young age, Porcello accomplished plenty in his 12 big league seasons. He’ll walk away from the game with a 150-125 record, a 4.40 ERA, 1561 strikeouts and just 489 walks in 2096 1/3 big league innings (plus another 40 innings of 4.73 ERA ball in the playoffs). Porcello was a top-three Rookie of the Year finisher, a Cy Young winner and a World Series champion in a career that FanGraphs valued at 29.6 wins above replacement. Between his original contract out of the draft (back when MLB deals were allowed for draftees), his arbitration earnings, his Red Sox extension and his Mets free-agent deal, Porcello earned more than $128MM. Best wishes to Porcello and his family in life after baseball.
Free Agent Notes: deGrom, Braves, Taillon, Anderson, Gibson
The five-year, $185MM deal between Jacob deGrom and the Rangers came together pretty quickly, and deGrom didn’t give the Mets a chance to counter the offer, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes. This isn’t to say that the Mets would have countered, as they “had no intention of offering anything close to where the winning bid landed.” While the Mets had some sense in November that deGrom might prefer to remain in New York if his offers were all in the same price range, Olney writes that some in the organization felt deGrom was starting to gradually distance himself from the Mets as the season went on.
There was also some mutual interest between deGrom and the Braves, relating back to an October report suggesting deGrom would ideally like to pitch closer to his home in Florida. According to Olney, the Braves were recently looking into deGrom, but his desired price tag was too high for the team.
Here’s some more buzz from around the free agent market, on players both already signed and still available…
- The Mets “made a serious run…hoping to close a deal” with Jameson Taillon last week, according to SNY’s Andy Martino. New York was known to have interest in Taillon, and this increased push seemingly indicates that he is pretty high on the team’s list of targets. That said, Martino thinks “it’s easy to see another team offering more than the Mets” for Taillon, as Justin Verlander is the Amazins’ top target and Carlos Rodon may be the backup plan. Past reports indicate that the Mets are looking to acquire an ace (i.e. Verlander or Rodon) and then another starter from the next tier of the free agent pitching market, which includes Taillon and several other arms.
- The Mariners had interest in trading for Brian Anderson during the 2021 season, The Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish reports, but the Marlins wanted too much in return. With Anderson now a free agent, Divish wonders if Seattle might again look to add the third baseman/outfielder, who brings some multi-positional ability and perhaps some bounce-back potential. Anderson has hit only .233/.322/.359 over 647 plate appearances and 165 games since the start of the 2021 season, with injuries limiting his playing time. Miami opted to non-tender Anderson last month, rather than pay him a projected $5.2MM in arbitration salary.
- Kyle Gibson agreed to a one-year deal with the Orioles, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that Gibson turned down a similar offer from an unknown team. Baltimore’s offer was preferable to Gibson because of the Orioles’ strong infield defense, the more pitcher-friendly left-field dimensions at Camden Yards, and the chance to work with catcher Adley Rutschman.
Chris Bassitt Looking For At Least A Four-Year Contract
Free agent starter Chris Bassitt is “seeking a contract longer than three years,” according to Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter link). This might impact the chances of a reunion between Bassitt and the Mets, as Puma writes that the Amazins aren’t keen on going beyond a three-year deal.
This is Bassitt’s first trip to free agency after playing in parts of eight MLB seasons and he is entering his age-34 campaign. Given how well he has pitched since his 2018 return from Tommy John surgery, it isn’t surprising that Bassitt would want to land the biggest contract possible in his first crack at a lucrative multi-year agreement. Of course, from the perspective of any pitching-needy teams, Bassitt’s age and injury history are also reasons to be wary of committing significant money to the right-hander into his age-37 or even his age-38 season.
The TJ surgery and subsequent recovery kept Bassitt off a big league mound for over two full years, from April 2016 to June 2018. As such, an argument could be made that Bassitt’s arm is actually pretty fresh for a pitcher of his age, given that he has only 737 1/3 Major League innings on his resume. Since returning from the Tommy John rehab, Bassitt has been pretty durable, missing a few weeks in 2019 with a lower-leg contusion and a week this season on the COVID-related injury list. Bassitt’s most notable injury was a facial fracture in late 2021, after he was hit in the face by a line drive off the bat of Brian Goodwin — remarkably, Bassitt was able to return to action a little over a month later.
Bassitt declined his end of a $19MM mutual option for 2023, and he then turned down a qualifying offer from the Mets. Therefore, his market could also be impacted by the draft compensation a new team would have to surrender to sign the righty. The QO has tended to be a bit more of an obstacle for players like Bassitt who aren’t in the clear-cut upper tier of the free agent market, but given some of the early action on the pitching market, the demand for arms should help Bassitt land a sizeable deal, and perhaps even a fourth guaranteed year.
After all, Jacob deGrom already surpassed expectations by landing a five-year deal from the Rangers, which will be worth at least $185MM. With deGrom off the board, the Mets may have to think harder about going outside their comfort zone if they want to bring Bassitt back to Queens. New York has been connected to several other pitchers besides Bassitt, as such names as Justin Verlander, Carlos Rodon, and Jameson Taillon have also emerged on the Mets’ radar in recent days.
Orioles Among 8-9 Teams Interested In Carlos Rodon
Roughly eight or nine teams are known to have interest in Carlos Rodon, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter links). Many of the suitors are already known, as past reports have indicated the Mets, Yankees, Giants, Twins, Dodgers, and Rangers have all checked in on Rodon’s market at different points this offseason. However, Heyman also lists the Orioles as a new name in the mix for the left-hander’s services.
Baltimore has already made one notable rotation move in signing Kyle Gibson to a one-year deal earlier today. Needless to say, signing Rodon would take a much heftier financial commitment, and the first major acquisition of the Orioles’ post-rebuild era. Though past reports suggested that the O’s were wary of shopping at the very top of the pitching market, Rodon might represent something of a bridge between the “top tier” and “secondary tier,” depending on how one would define such players.
Entering his age-30 season, Rodon is considerably younger than either Justin Verlander or Jacob deGrom, so Rodon might make more sense for a young Baltimore team that appears to be just entering its competitive window. As Orioles GM Mike Elias noted last month, the club has “got a lot of interesting starters. But they’re not guys who have a track record of being front-end-of-the-rotation starters.”
Baltimore hopes at least one or two of their young arms can eventually develop into being ace-level pitchers, but waiting on that development might not be too helpful for a team that wants to win in 2023. Gibson has had some quality seasons and was an All-Star just in 2021, but he struggled in his time with the Phillies, and he is more of a veteran innings-eater than a true frontline pitcher.
In other Rodon news, Heyman writes that Texas is still in on the southpaw even after already signing deGrom to a five-year, $185MM deal yesterday. As expected, the Rangers have put a heavy emphasis on rotation upgrades this winter, between signing deGrom, re-signing Martin Perez, and acquiring Jake Odorizzi from the Braves. That trio joins Jon Gray and Dane Dunning in the projected starting five, but the Rangers have been so aggressive over the last two offseasons that it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see them also sign Rodon. In this case, one of Dunning or Odorizzi could become a depth starter or swingman, or potentially even a trade chip.
Both the Mets and Yankees have been linked to Rodon and Verlander, with Heyman tweeting that the two New York teams seem to have differing top choices. Rodon seems to be the Yankees’ chief target, while Verlander seems like the Mets’ preferred option.
Rangers Sign Jacob deGrom To Five-Year Contract
The Rangers have made their huge rotation splash, announcing agreement with Jacob deGrom on a five-year contract. It’s a reported $185MM guarantee, and the deal also includes a full no-trade clause. The VC Sports Group client will make $30MM next season, followed by successive $40MM salaries in 2024-25, $38MM in 2026 and $37MM in 2027.
The contract also contains a conditional option for the 2028 campaign, with salaries dependent on the health of deGrom’s arm over the first four seasons. If the hurler undergoes Tommy John surgery or suffers any elbow or shoulder injury that leads to a 130-day injured list stint within a season or a full calendar year absence over multiple campaigns, a club option would kick in. That’d be valued at $20MM, but it’d jump to $30MM if deGrom posts a top-five Cy Young finish at any point during the deal or tallied a cumulative 625 innings over the next five seasons. It’d go to $37MM if he pitches 725-plus frames or secures three top-five Cy Young finishes.
If deGrom doesn’t suffer the kind of injury that’d trigger the conditional provision, he could vest the 2028 option at $37MM by pitching 160+ innings in ’27 and securing a top-five Cy Young finish. In that case, he’d only need to pass a postseason physical to max out the contract at $222MM over six seasons.
“We are thrilled that Jacob deGrom has decided to become a Texas Ranger,” general manager Chris Young said in the press release. “Over a number of seasons, Jacob has been a standout Major League pitcher, and he gives us a dominant performer at the top of our rotation. One of our primary goals this off-season is to strengthen our starting pitching, and we are adding one of the best.”
It’s the biggest move of the offseason to date and the latest massive free agent strike out of Arlington. The Rangers committed more than a half-billion dollars to the trio of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray last winter. That was designed to lay the foundation for a full-fledged return to contention in 2023. The Rangers didn’t see their desired steps forward from a win-loss perspective in 2022, largely because of a lackluster rotation behind Gray and Martín Pérez. Texas has suggested they were prepared to attack the top of the market to fortify the biggest weak point on the roster. They’ve done so with a shocking five-year deal for arguably the sport’s best pitcher.
deGrom is one of the most accomplished arms of his generation. While he fell to the ninth round of the 2010 draft and didn’t reach the majors until just shy of his 26th birthday in 2014, he immediately cemented himself as one of the game’s top pitchers. deGrom worked to a 2.69 ERA in his first 22 starts to secure the NL Rookie of the Year award and kick off a career as one of the league’s top hurlers.
The righty posted an ERA between 2.54 and 3.53 in each of the next three seasons, twice receiving down-ballot Cy Young support. Already a borderline ace, he took his game to new heights in 2018. deGrom twirled 217 innings with an MLB-best 1.70 ERA to secure his first Cy Young. The Mets inked him to a $120.5MM extension after that season. He followed up by repeating as the Senior Circuit’s best pitcher, claiming a second Cy Young with a 2.43 mark over 204 innings. He had another dominant season in the abbreviated 2020 campaign, and got off to one of the greatest first halves in history in ’21.
Through his first 15 starts that year, the four-time All-Star posted a microscopic 1.08 ERA while striking out an incredible 45.1% of opposing hitters. He was nagged by some minor health issues throughout the first few months, and that culminated in an injured list stint for forearm tightness right around the All-Star Break. While that wasn’t initially expected to lead to an extended absence, deGrom would wind up missing the remainder of the season. That September, New York president Sandy Alderson said deGrom had been dealing with a low-grade tear in his UCL, an eyebrow-raising assertion considering the right-hander had undergone Tommy John surgery before making his MLB debut. The pitcher refuted that, calling his ligament “perfectly fine.”
After a full offseason, deGrom was expected to return in 2022. Late in Spring Training, he felt some soreness during a between-starts throwing program. He was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his scapula and shut back down, and the injury wound up costing him the first four months of this past season. By the time he returned to the mound in early August, more than a full calendar year had gone by.
With that kind of layoff, one might’ve expected deGrom to show some signs of rust. Instead, he returned as his peak self, immediately dominating opponents yet again. The Stetson product averaged an absurd 98.9 MPH on his fastball and 92.6 MPH on the cutter/slider that serves as his go-to secondary offering. He struck out 42.7% of opponents against a minuscule 3.3% walk percentage. Opposing hitters swung and missed at 21.1% of his total pitches; no other starting pitcher with 50+ innings had a swinging strike rate above 17%. He struck out eight over six innings during his lone playoff start against San Diego.
A three-homer outing in Atlanta to end his season kicked deGrom’s ERA up to 3.08 in his abbreviated season, but there’s little doubt he’s still capable of performing at his top level if healthy. No pitcher on the planet is as dominant as deGrom on a per-start basis. He predictably opted out of the final $32.5MM on his deal with the Mets at the end of the season.
High-upside as this signing can be for the Rangers, there’s certainly plenty of risk in this kind of commitment to a pitcher who lost significant chunks of the past two seasons with arm issues. He’s worked just 162 1/3 innings (including playoffs) since the start of 2021. While deGrom had no control of the prorated season in 2020, he’ll still be expected to shoulder a full rotation workload despite having tossed just 224 1/3 cumulative innings over the last three years.
deGrom turns 35 years old in June. There’s no indication he’s on the verge of any performance regression. Texas’ commitment runs through his age-39 campaign, and there’s the potential for the deal to go sideways if his form tails off later into his 30’s. Now-former teammate Max Scherzer and fellow top free agent Justin Verlander have shown it’s not of the question for a pitcher to remain at peak form as he approaches 40. Neither Scherzer nor Verlander had dealt with the kind of injuries in their mid-30’s that have plagued deGrom, though.
The $185MM guarantee significantly tops MLBTR’s three-year, $135MM prediction at the start of the offseason. It’s the sixth-largest deal for a free agent pitcher in MLB history, trailing those of Gerrit Cole ($324MM), Stephen Strasburg ($245MM), David Price ($217MM), Scherzer ($210MM with the Nationals) and Zack Greinke ($206.5MM). The deal contains a $37MM average annual value that ranks second among any deal in big league history. Only Scherzer’s three-year pact with the Mets — which came out to $43.333MM per season — is higher.
Next year’s $30MM salary will bring Texas’ projected 2023 payroll commitments to around $170MM. That’d be a franchise-record tally for the Rangers, but there’s no indication the organization is planning to curtail spending any time soon. Owner Ray Davis and Young have each indicated there’s room for the club to be active on the open market, and there’s still plenty of work to be done in turning their 68-win roster into a contender in a difficult AL West. Young and skipper Bruce Bochy are each headed into their first full season at the helm, and they’ll expect to break a six-year playoff drought.
deGrom goes to the top of a rotation that brings back Gray and Pérez, who accepted a qualifying offer. The Rangers acquired Jake Odorizzi from the Braves at the start of the offseason, and Dane Dunning is a decent back-of-the-rotation arm. That’s a viable starting five, but the team’s rotation depth is still lacking and they could add another arm from outside the organization. The infield and catcher are in strong shape. Adolis García is the only outfielder who’s guaranteed everyday reps, leaving two spots that could be addressed, and the team figures to add at least one reliever.
The contract contains a $37MM luxury tax hit. The average annual values of a team’s commitments are relevant for competitive balance tax purposes. Signing deGrom brings Texas around $192MM in estimated CBT figures, per Roster Resource, leaving them around $40MM shy of the lowest $233MM threshold.
The Mets will have to rapidly turn the page, bidding farewell to one of the best pitchers in franchise history. New York has also seen Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Trevor Williams hit free agency. They’re sure to add to a starting staff led by Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco. Free agency offers a pair of remaining aces in Verlander and Carlos Rodón, and the big-spending Mets have previously been tied to both pitchers. Losing deGrom only figures to increase their urgency to bring in one of those two hurlers, and they’ll need to retain or replace free agent center fielder Brandon Nimmo.
New York receives modest compensation for deGrom’s departure. The team made him a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason, which he rejected. As a team that paid the luxury tax in 2022, New York receives the lowest compensation: a pick after the fourth round of next year’s amateur draft. The Rangers neither paid the luxury tax nor received revenue sharing this year. They’ll therefore surrender their second-highest pick in next year’s draft and forfeit $500K in international signing bonus space. Should they sign another qualified free agent this offseason — both Seager and Semien had turned down a QO last winter — they’d be stripped of their third-highest selection.
Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report deGrom received a $185MM guarantee, and that the deal contained a conditional sixth-year option that could push its value to $222MM. Levi Weaver of the Athletic reported the yearly salary terms. Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reported the details of the 2028 option.
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