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NL Injury Notes: Syndergaard, Betts, Kelly, Hoerner, Peralta

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Noah Syndergaard is expected to begin a rehab assignment this week, according to Tim Healey of Newsday Sports. As was previously reported, the Mets are planning on having the hulking righty return as a member of their bullpen, since there’s not enough time remaining in the season for him to be stretched out as a starter. This would be his second rehab assignment of the year, as he attempts to work his way back from undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2020. He had previously had a rehab stint in May, before being shut down due to elbow inflammation. It’s now been almost two years since his last big-league appearance, which was September 29th of 2019. The final few weeks of the season will be tremendously important for both Syndergaard and the Mets. The team needs all the help they can get to pull themselves out of their current nosedive. Despite having the division lead in the NL East as recently as August 5th, they are now in third place and seven games behind the Braves. As for Thor, he is a few weeks away from entering free agency for the first time and could help his own case by showing some health and effectiveness before the season ends.

More from around the NL…

  • The Dodgers are planning on reinstating Mookie Betts from the injured list on Thursday, per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. The outfielder has been dealing with hip pain all year and is currently in the midst of his second IL placement this season because of it. Despite the nagging hip situation, Betts has still been tremendously valuable when on the field. In 87 games this year, he’s hitting .277/.378/.521, for a wRC+ of 143. Getting him healthy will be a huge boost to the Dodgers as they attempt to chase down the Giants and make up the 2 1/2 games that separate them in the race for the NL West crown.
  • The Dodgers could also welcome Joe Kelly back into the fold this week, per Castillo. Kelly was placed on the IL without explanation on August 10th, but a source of Castillo’s confirmed that it was because of a positive COVID test. The righty has seemingly recovered, given that he started a rehab assignment on Friday. He’s done some quality work this year, throwing 29 2/3 innings of 3.34 ERA ball. The bullpen could use his fresh arm, since it’s recently put Garrett Cleavinger and Evan Phillips on the 10-day IL, as well as Jimmy Nelson going under the knife for season-ending Tommy John surgery earlier this month.
  • Nico Hoerner left the first game of his rehab assignment today because of tension in his oblique, per Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com. Hoerner and the Cubs can afford to play things cautiously, as they are well out of the playoff picture at this point. But the infielder has only been able to play in 39 games this season due to various injuries and would surely like to get some more reps before the winter. The club would also surely love to get more looks at him in action, given that they are going into an offseason with so many potential variables after parting ways with so much of their previous core. When on the field, he has had been effective at the plate this year, slashing .313/.388/.388, producing a wRC+ of 113. He’s also played second base, third base, shortstop, left field and center field, meaning that he could fit into the club’s future plans in a variety of ways.
  • Freddy Peralta played catch today, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. Peralta went on the IL on Thursday with shoulder inflammation and will be eligible to return this coming weekend. The righty is in the midst of an exceptional breakout season, as he’s thrown 121 1/3 innings with a 2.45 ERA and superb strikeout rate of 34%. Among all pitchers with at least 120 innings this season, that’s the fourth-best ERA and fourth-best K%. The Brewers don’t need to rush him back, as they are 7 1/2 games ahead of the Reds in the NL Central. But assuming he can keep his shoulder in good shape, he’ll form one third of a potentially deadly playoff rotation, alongside Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes.

Mets Activate Javier Baez

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The Mets announced they’ve reinstated infielder Javier Báez from the injured list. He’s getting the start at shortstop, hitting third, this afternoon against the Dodgers. Reliever Geoff Hartlieb has been optioned to Triple-A Syracuse to open active roster space.

Báez spent the minimal amount of time on the shelf after landing on the IL on August 13 (backdated to August 12). The team’s outlook has changed considerably in that short amount of time, as the Mets have gone 1-8 since last Friday, falling seven games back of the red-hot Braves in the National League East. Báez has gotten off to a slow start to his Mets tenure, hitting .171/.216/.343 over 37 plate appearances since being acquired from the Cubs at the trade deadline.

Francisco Lindor is not being activated today, although manager Luis Rojas told reporters (including Anthony DiComo of MLB.com) he’s expected back early next week. Rojas indicated yesterday that Lindor could return from the oblique strain that has kept him out of action since mid-July as soon as this weekend.

Mets Notes: Bryant, Baez, Lindor

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The blockbuster trade between the Mets and Cubs on deadline day was almost even bigger, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes that Kris Bryant was also part of talks between the two clubs.  The actual trade saw Javier Baez and Trevor Williams go to New York in exchange for top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong, but Rosenthal reports that the larger version of the swap would’ve also seen the Mets land Bryant and another player off of Chicago’s big league roster.  In exchange, the Cubs would have received not only Crow-Armstrong, but also “a prospect they regarded even more highly and a major leaguer under multi-year club control.”

However, the Mets learned of Jacob deGrom’s injury setback on deadline day, which likely made the team wary of making too big of an all-in move.  Given how the Cubs were very busy in reshaping their team at the deadline, it’s possible the mystery player could have been any of the players instead dealt elsewhere (i.e. Craig Kimbrel, Jake Marisnick) or possibly someone who is still in a Cubs uniform today.  It’s probably safe to guess that one of Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, Matthew Allan, or J.T. Ginn was the blue-chip Mets prospect in question, unless the Cubs were intrigued by someone outside of the upper tier of New York’s prospect rankings.

  • The Mets could have a new middle infield as soon as tomorrow, as manager Luis Rojas told Newsday’s Tim Healey and other reporters that one or both of Baez and Francisco Lindor could be activated off the 10-day injured list.  Sunday marks Baez’s first eligible day to return after being (retroactively) placed on the IL August 12 due to back spasms, while Lindor has been sidelined since July 17 due to a right oblique strain.  The Mets have Monday off before beginning a series at home against the Giants on Tuesday, so it is possible the Mets could hold Lindor and/or Baez back to give them another two full recovery days before returning them to the active roster.  Baez, at least, seems likely to return by Tuesday at the latest.

Mets Place James McCann On 10-Day Injured List

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The Mets have placed catcher James McCann on the 10-day injured list because of lower back spams, per Tim Healey of Newsday Sports (via Twitter). The move is retroactive to August 17th. The Mets do not expect McCann to miss more than the minimum amount of time, but given the specialization of the catcher position, they chose to be judicious in replacing him on the roster. Geoff Hartlieb was recalled from Triple-A.

Patrick Mazeika and Chance Sisco are already on the roster to share the catching duties in McCann’s absence. Mazeika has started behind the plate in the four games since McCann has been out. Sisco was claimed off waivers from the Orioles on June 25th.

Hartlieb was claimed off waivers from the Pirates earlier this season. The 27-year-old right-hander has struggled in small samples with both the Mets and the Pirates, tossing nine innings combined over seven appearances while allowing 11 earned runs. He was a 27th round draft pick of the Pirates back in 2016, posting solid run prevention numbers in the minors up through his debut in 2019. In parts of three seasons since, Hartlieb has logged 66 1/3 Major League innings with a 7.46 ERA, but 5.42 FIP.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

Mets Claim Heath Hembree, Transfer Jacob deGrom To 60-Day Injured List

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The Mets have claimed right-handed reliever Heath Hembree off waivers from the Reds, per a club announcement. Ace Jacob deGrom was transferred from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster. The Mets have already been without deGrom for more than a month, and he wasn’t expected back until September anyhow. He’ll be eligible to return on Sept. 15.

Hembree, 32, was serving as the Reds’ closer earlier this summer before a rough few weeks caused his ERA to balloon up to a dismal 6.38 mark. Unsightly as that ERA is, Hembree was lights-out from late June through late July, pitching to a 1.42 ERA with a 19-to-5 K/BB ratio and racking up seven saves in a span of 12 2/3 innings. That hot streak obviously came in a very small sample, but it’s worth noting — and this is likely what drew the Mets to him — that Hembree has been among the game’s best in terms of missing bats all season.

Among the 321 pitchers who have thrown at least 40 innings this year, Hembree’s 38 percent strikeout rate is the game’s seventh-highest mark. He’s tied for 15th in that same set of pitchers with a 27.4 K-BB% and sits 18th with a 2.84 SIERA. He’s largely been done in by the long ball this season, serving up 10 dingers in 44 2/3 innings of work (2.13 HR/9). Seven of those home runs have come at the extremely hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, however, where Hembree’s ERA is north of 8.00. He’s been much better on the road, and a change of scenery could do him some good.

As for deGrom, the Mets said last week that he’d go at least another two weeks without throwing, so it’s unlikely he’d have been able to return much sooner than Sept. 15 anyhow. Once he starts throwing, he’ll need to build up sufficient arm strength to get back to the mound and hopefully make a few starts for the Mets down the stretch as they look to pull out of the spiral that has seen them fall from a comfortable lead in the NL East to a sub-.500 record and a five-game gap between the now-division-leading Braves.

Rangers, Assistant GM Shiraz Rehman Part Ways

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The Rangers and assistant general manager Shiraz Rehman have parted ways, the team announced. (Levi Weaver and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the news shortly before the announcement).

“After discussions with Shiraz, we mutually agreed that it is best to part ways at this time,” president of baseball operations Jon Daniels said in a statement. “Shiraz has expressed a desire to seek a new opportunity where he can utilize his experiences and take on a more significant role than we currently have available. Since joining the Rangers, Shiraz played an important role in our process to shape the future of the franchise and ensure on-field success for the years ahead. The Rangers want to thank Shiraz for his contributions and wish him the very best for the future.”

Rehman had been with Texas since October 2018, coming over after five seasons as an assistant GM with the Cubs. Rehman was one of three AGM’s in Texas, pairing with Josh Boyd and Mike Daly as the top lieutenants for Daniels and general manager Chris Young.

Young was hired as GM last December, which Rehman indicated likely played some role in today’s decision. “I’m extremely grateful to ownership — Ray Davis and Neil Leibman —  and baseball leadership – Jon Daniels, Chris Young and Chris Woodward — for the opportunity to work for the Rangers organization, and have enjoyed my 3 years with the team.  … Ultimately, the redistribution of front office responsibilities after (Young) came aboard this winter left me with a less fulfilling and impactful role, so we agreed to part ways at this time,” Rehman told Weaver, who hears from others in the organization that Rehman was dismissed as opposed to stepping away as part of a mutual decision. “I am looking forward to my next challenge and wish the entire front office, the coaches, the players, and Rangers fans all the best in the future.”

Interestingly, Weaver reports that the Rangers and Mets have spoken with Reds’ director of pitching Kyle Boddy about a potential position for next season, although he hears that those discussions are unrelated to the team’s parting ways with Rehman. Boddy’s contract with Cincinnati expires at the end of the year, according to Weaver.

Boddy rose to prominence as the founder of Driveline Baseball, an independent data-driven training facility that counts numerous MLB pitchers among its clients. Weaver notes that Young worked out at Driveline during his days as a player, and Boddy consulted with the Rangers on their 2018 amateur draft, so he’s surely familiar with the top decision-makers in the Texas front office.

Latest On Francisco Lindor

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  • Francisco Lindor participated in just about a full range of baseball activities prior to today’s game against the Dodgers, and Mets manager Luis Rojas told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bill Ladson) that Lindor could potentially be activated off the injured list when New York begins its next homestand on August 24.  Lindor will travel with the Mets on their road trip and continue to work out, so the club will monitor his progress and then determine whether a minor league rehab assignment is necessary, or if Lindor could return to the active roster without the benefit of any minor league tuneup games.  A Grade 2 oblique strain sent Lindor to the IL on July 17, so even a return by that Mets homestand would be a pretty decent turn-around time for the shortstop, given how more severe oblique problems can sometimes linger.

Mets Place Javier Baez On Injured List

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The Mets announced they’ve placed infielder Javier Báez on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to August 12, with back spasms. Travis Blankenhorn has been recalled from Triple-A Syracuse to take his place on the active roster.

New York acquired Báez from the Cubs in the hope that he could hold down shortstop while Francisco Lindor recovered from a right oblique strain. Unfortunately, Báez has appeared in just ten games as a Met before landing on the IL himself. There’s no indication he’s facing an especially long-term absence, but any missed time is an unwelcome development for a team that sits half a game behind the Phillies in a tight NL East race.

It’s been a confounding season for Báez, who is ticketed for free agency at the end of the year. The 28-year-old has blasted 24 home runs over 398 plate appearances, posting a big .230 isolated power (slugging minus batting average). He’s continued to rate as a plus defensive shortstop and baserunner as well, again demonstrating his longstanding ability to impact the game in myriad ways.

The power output has come with a highly concerning approach, though. Báez has always been a free-swinger, but he’s chasing more often and making less contact than ever before. His 62.3% contact rate is the second-lowest (better only than Mike Zunino’s) among the 223 hitters with 250+ plate appearances this year. Báez’s 36.4% strikeout rate, meanwhile, is third-highest among that same group (trailing only Zunino and Bobby Dalbec). Overall, his .241/.285/.470 line split between Chicago and New York is exactly league average by measure of wRC+, although Báez has gotten to that production in anything but an average way.

Jacob deGrom Won’t Resume Throwing For At Least Two More Weeks

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Jacob deGrom hasn’t thrown since a July 30 setback in his recovery from elbow inflammation prompted a two-week shutdown. With that initial shutdown having passed, there’d been some hope deGrom could restart his throwing program in the coming days. That, however, won’t be the case.

Mets manager Luis Rojas told reporters (including Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News) that deGrom’s shutdown will last at least another two weeks. Rojas stressed that deGrom isn’t dealing with structural damage and that the inflammation is improving. That said, it’s apparently not progressing quickly enough for him to begin throwing again before late August, at the earliest.

Hope remains that deGrom will be able to return to the majors at some point this year. That window of opportunity’s dwindling, though, with just seven weeks remaining in the regular season. In a best case scenario, deGrom begins a throwing program two weeks from now. He’ll need some time to build up arm strength before he can embark upon a minor league rehab assignment.

The Mets could expedite that rehab process by building deGrom up to work in shorter stints, just as they’re leaning towards brining Noah Syndergaard back as a relief weapon. In such a scenario, deGrom could still serve as a starting pitcher, but scheduling constraints make it unlikely New York will have the luxury of building deGrom up to work 100+ pitches with regularity for the stretch run.

Needless to say, losing the best pitcher in baseball has dealt a tough blow to the Mets. deGrom looked to be coasting to his third career Cy Young Award (and potentially the NL MVP award) early in the season. Over fifteen starts, the 33-year-old tossed 92 innings of 1.08 ERA/1.74 SIERA ball.

Despite a series of injuries to key position players, the Mets remained in first place in the NL East for much of the early summer — thanks largely to deGrom’s absurd level of dominance. A bout of forearm tightness sent him to the injured list on July 18, though. The accompanying elbow inflammation is now set to cost him at least a significant chunk of the season’s second half.

The Mets have fallen on hard times in recent weeks. New York has gone 11-13 since placing deGrom on the IL, with the rotation posting a disappointing 5.71 ERA/4.74 SIERA over that time. The skid — coupled with the Phillies’ recent hot streak — has put the Mets a half game back of Philadelphia and a half game up on the Braves in a tightly-contested division race.

Obviously, there’s still plenty of opportunity for the Mets to take ahold of the division. They’ll have to go at least a majority of the stretch run without their ace, though, leaving New York relying on a starting staff including Marcus Stroman, Carlos Carrasco, Tylor Megill, Taijuan Walker, Rich Hill and Trevor Williams.

That’s still a talented group, but there’s also a fair bit of uncertainty. Stroman has been excellent all year, and the unheralded Megill has stepped up with 45 innings of 3.20 ERA/3.80 SIERA ball over his first nine big league starts. (Tim Britton of the Athletic explored Megill’s rapid rise in the organization this morning in a piece that should be of interest to Mets fans). The veteran group at the back of the rotation comes with plenty of question marks, though.

Carrasco has only made three starts this year because of a hamstring tear. He’s a highly accomplished pitcher at his best, but it remains to be seen if the 34-year-old will be able to pitch at his peak level down the stretch. Walker began the year well but he’s been hit hard over his past five starts. Hill has pitched well overall but seen his swinging strike rate plummet recently, and Williams struggled with the Cubs and has only made a single MLB appearance for the Mets to date.

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