Video: Thor’s Stormy Career
With the disappointing news of Noah Syndergaard’s Tommy John surgery, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd traces his tumultuous career arc. Check out today’s video here.
East Notes: Sale, Mets, Nats, Jays
Boston’s rotation took a hit it may not recover from in 2020 with this week’s news that ace Chris Sale will undergo Tommy John surgery. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, who has been faced with no shortage of adversity during his first several months atop the Red Sox’s baseball department, addressed the surgery decision this week, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald details. The left-handed Sale dealt with elbow problems last season, but Bloom and the Red Sox don’t regret putting off his procedure. “Based on everything that went on last summer, the symptoms, the imaging, it seemed very reasonable to me to take that time off and try to rest, strengthen everything and hope for a successful path forward,” Bloom said. “Obviously up until (he felt pain) in early March, there was every indication that he was doing great.” Indeed, it was just this Wednesday that Sale seemed to be progressing in his recovery from a flexor strain. That changed a day later, and now Boston will have to go without its best pitcher until sometime in 2021.
- The Mets have optioned shortstop Andres Gimenez, right-hander Tyler Bashlor and catcher Ali Sanchez to Triple-A Syracuse, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. Bashlor’s the lone member of the trio with major league experience, but he endured immense struggles as a Met last year. The most promising player in the group is the 21-year-old Gimenez, whom MLB.com ranks as the sport’s 84th-best prospect. Gimenez could be a long-term factor in the Mets’ infield, though he hasn’t advanced past Double-A ball yet. He batted .250/.309/.387 with nine home runs and 28 stolen bases over 479 plate appearances at that level last season.
- The Nationals released reliever Hunter Strickland last weekend, and it turns out that the move was somewhat costly for the club. Had the Nats cut ties with Strickland a week earlier, they would have only had to pay him one-sixth of his $1.6MM salary, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com notes. By parting with Strickland when it did, though, Washington had to fork over a fourth of his money; as a result, it lost $133K or so, per Zuckerman.
- The coronavirus led the Criminal Court Complex in Clearwater, Fla., to push back Blue Jays catcher Reese McGuire‘s court date to April 20, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet relays. McGuire had been scheduled to appear in court Monday as a result of his Feb. 7 arrest on a charge of “exposure of sexual organs,” a first-degree misdemeanor. He could face one year in jail and fines up to $1K.
MLB Cancels Planned Series In Mexico City And Puerto Rico
Major League Baseball formally announced today that the Diamondbacks/Padres series that had been planned to take place on April 18-19 in Mexico City and the Marlins/Mets series that was set for April 28-30 in San Juan, Puerto Rico have been canceled. The series will be held in Phoenix and Miami, as the D-backs and Marlins had been designated the “home” team for each of those neutral-location sets of games.
It was something of a fait accompli that both series would be postponed at the very least. Major League Baseball has already pushed back the season opener until at least mid-May, making it clear that those games wouldn’t be played as scheduled. Still, it’s a tough break for baseball fans in Mexico City and in San Juan that they won’t have the opportunity to attend those games, just as the organizations and players are likely disheartened not to play in such unique settings.
“It breaks our heart we won’t be playing in front of the incredible fans in Mexico this year, but health and safety come first,” the D-backs said in a statement announcing the cancellation of the series.
There’s yet to be an indication as to what will happen with Major League Baseball’s London Series between the Cardinals and Cubs, which is scheduled to take place on June 13-14. Those contests are technically designated as “home” games for the Cardinals, so if the league takes a similar course of action, they’ll be postponed and held in St. Louis at a later date.
Video: The Best Extension Candidates For Each NL East Team
Who is the best extension candidate for the Mets, Nationals, Braves, Marlins, and Phillies? Jeff Todd suggests the Polar Bear, Childish Bambino, and a few players you might not expect in today’s video.
Jump to a team:
- Braves – 1:23
- Marlins – 3:17
- Mets – 4:57
- Nationals – 7:07
- Phillies – 9:36
Mets Made Offer To Edwin Jackson
Veteran right-hander Edwin Jackson received minor league offers from two teams before electing to reunite with one of his many previous teams – the Diamondbacks – back in February, Zach Buchanan of The Athletic reports (subscription link). The Mets were the other club in on Jackson, according to Buchanan.
To call the 36-year-old Jackson “well-traveled” would be an enormous understatement. Had he signed with the Mets and then earned a spot on their roster (very likely as a reliever), they would have been 15th team for which he has pitched in the majors. Jackson already set the record when he took the hill for Toronto, his 14th MLB employer, last season. Buchanan’s piece, which is worth checking out in full, details the unusual journey the well-liked Jackson has taken thus far.
Heading into this season, whenever it starts, Jackson is likely to open with Triple-A Reno, according to Buchanan. He does have a late-spring opt-out in his contract, though it’s possible MLB will delay that deadline. It also may not behoove Jackson to take advantage of the clause, considering he lives in Arizona and stumbled in the bigs a season ago. In 67 2/3 innings divided between Toronto and Detroit, Jackson put up a 9.58 ERA/7.65 FIP with 6.92 K/9 and 4.26 BB/9.
MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Mets?
It wasn’t an especially aggressive offseason for the Mets, a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2016, but perhaps it didn’t need to be. After all, even though the franchise, its ownership and general manager Brodie Van Wagenen are often maligned, team brass has assembled a rather talented roster. Last year’s Mets amassed 86 wins – the sixth-highest total in the National League – and are set to bring back their best contributors from then if and when the season gets underway.
Of course, a pair of award winners are at the forefront of the roster. Right-hander Jacob deGrom has earned back to back National League Cy Youngs. There’s little reason to believe he or first baseman Pete Alonso, who pounded 53 home runs in 2019 to earn NL Rookie of the Year honors, are going to let up. And there’s plenty of proven talent supporting that pair, with an appealing rotation (albeit one that lost Zack Wheeler to the division-rival Phillies in free agency) that will consist of some combination of deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Rick Porcello, Steven Matz and Michael Wacha.
Meanwhile, a position player cast that finished 2019 seventh in wRC+ and 11th in fWAR is returning the same key complements to Alonso. Hitting machine Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto (currently down with an oblique strain, but he could be fine by the time the season starts), Brandon Nimmo, J.D. Davis, Dominic Smith, Wilson Ramos and Amed Rosario haven’t gone anywhere. Neither has potential Hall of Fame second baseman Robinson Cano, for whom there appears nowhere to go up after a shockingly poor, injury-marred first season as a Met. And Yoenis Cespedes seems to be progressing after three straight injury-ruined campaigns of his own.
Cano and Cespedes make for potential rebound candidates, as do multiple members of a Mets bullpen that fell on its face a year ago despite Van Wagenen’s efforts to improve it during the previous winter. Edwin Diaz, who joined the Mets from the Mariners in the Cano blockbuster that has blown up in New York’s face so far, and big-money signing Jeurys Familia were terrible. Considering their strong track records, it seems fair to expect some sort of bounce-back effort this season. Likewise, former Yankees star Dellin Betances – who came to the Mets in free agency – is also seeking a return to form. But that’s on account of injuries that all but wiped out his 2019, not any kind of decline in performance. The hope is that those three will get back to normal and join Seth Lugo, Justin Wilson, Robert Gsellman, Brad Brach and likely Wacha to comprise a dominant bullpen. There’s loads of risk in that bunch, but the upside is evident.
It was an odd winter for the Mets, who had to can rookie skipper Carlos Beltran before he ever managed a game, thanks to his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal. To the chagrin of many Mets fans, they also saw a potential sale of the franchise fall apart. Off-field turmoil aside, Beltran’s replacement, Luis Rojas, looks to be inheriting a good situation. However, it should be a dogfight in the NL East, which could feature as many as four contenders (the Braves, Nationals and Phillies are the others).
Before the coronavirus turned the world on its head, back when baseball was supposed to consist of 162 games, PECOTA projected 87.9 wins and a division title for the Mets. Normally, it would be customary to ask how many victories you expect them to rack up, but a 162-game season is a pipe dream at this point. Therefore, let’s take the simpler route: If a baseball season does happen, will the Mets make the playoffs?
(Poll link for app users)
Mets to the playoffs in 2020?
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Yes 55% (4,280)
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No 45% (3,536)
Total votes: 7,816
Offseason In Review: New York Mets
The Mets doubled down on their roster core and added some risky but upside-laden pitchers.
Major League Signings
- Dellin Betances, RP: one year, $10.5MM (includes $6MM player option with $3MM buyout & escalator provisions)
- Rick Porcello, SP: one year, $10MM
- Michael Wacha, SP: one year, $3MM (plus $8.35MM in incentives)
- Brad Brach, RP: one year, $2.1MM (includes $1.25MM player option for 2021; Brach also owed $500K by Cubs in 2020)
- Total spend: $25.6MM
Trades and Claims
- Acquired OF Jake Marisnick from Astros in exchange for LHP Blake Taylor & OF Kenedy Corona
- Claimed SP/RP Stephen Gonsalves off waivers from Twins
Notable Minor League Signings
- Matt Adams, Ryan Cordell, Max Moroff, Eduardo Nunez, Jarrett Parker, Erasmo Ramirez, Yefry Ramirez, Rene Rivera, Chasen Shreve, Joey Terdoslavich, Rob Whalen
Notable Losses
- Aaron Altherr, Luis Avilan, Rajai Davis, Todd Frazier, Donnie Hart, Juan Lagares, Joe Panik, Rene Rivera, Zack Wheeler
Whatever you may think about the Mets and GM Brodie Van Wagenen, you can’t accuse them of being uninteresting. Van Wagenen has toned down some of the public bravado he exhibited in his first offseason at the helm, and didn’t oversee any wild blockbusters or major spending outlays this winter, but still delivered a fairly bold slate of moves — at least, within the organization’s own limitations.
There’s ample upside in the new arms that the team added. It’s probably not worth considering the earlier ceilings of Porcello and Wacha as reasonably plausible scenarios, but it’s not hard to imagine either or both functioning as quality mid-rotation types. Likewise, it’ll be a tall order for Betances and Brach to revisit their peak seasons, but even ~75% of what they’ve shown at their best would be a nice outcome for the New York org. You could say the same for Marisnick, who has one above-average offensive season under his belt and a track record of excellent glovework.
Sure, each of those guys comes with an equivalent downside scenario. Porcello and Brach allowed more than five earned runs per nine in 2019. Wacha and Betances come with major health questions. Marisnick’s career 79 wRC+ actually lags that of the man he’ll effectively replace, fellow defensive standout Juan Lagares. But still, for a cumulative investment of twenty-five million bucks, it’s not a bad value play at all.
All that said … wanna guess which NL East team spent the least this offseason? Nope, not the Marlins. It’s the Mets, even in a winter in which they realized enormous cost savings in the final year of their agreement with Yoenis Cespedes. Let’s revisit what I wrote at the outset of the offseason:
So, unless the Wilpon ownership group is preparing to commit more cash to the cause, the front office is going to have to get very creative. The Mets roster does have quite a bit of talent, but it’s also the same essential unit that fell short this year and could certainly stand to be supplemented in several areas.
It’s clear how important the Cespedes savings were. Originally promised $29.5MM before suffering a pair of ankle injuries in an accident on his ranch, the veteran slugger is now promised just $6MM. The difference accounts for virtually all of the team’s spending … sort of.
Odds are the Mets will end up being obligated for more than that amount — on a pro-rated basis, anyway, depending upon how the league and union sort out the complicated contractual questions posed by the season delay. But the team will for the most part be in control of its incentive pay and thereby gain some assurance of a return on it. Cespedes earns another $5MM so long as he returns to the active roster (or hits the IL with a different injury); he can also tally another $9MM through plate appearance incentives. Wacha’s deal includes a load of upside if he’s healthy and throwing well enough to keep getting the ball.
That flexible situation was designed to help the club deal with a rather high-variance roster. And to be fair, the Wilpons did sign off on a club-record payroll, though it’s a modest year-over-year move from just under to just over $160MM (that’s not including whatever is still owed to David Wright by the team, the details of which aren’t known, or any incentive money).
Going back to that pre-season piece I wrote … the very next lines:
There’s no true center fielder. We all know how the bullpen looked in 2019. The rotation is missing one piece and still also needs depth.
Well, there you have it. The club checked each of those boxes with the above-cited MLB signings and trades. But doing so on a budget meant sacrificing in several regards, and left a roster that has some clear pathways to success but also some real questions.
Spending more or striking a trade might’ve provided a clearer answer in center field. Instead, the Mets added a player in Marisnick who may best function as a platoon piece against left-handed pitching and late-game defender/baserunner. This could work out fine — if Brandon Nimmo is able to produce at a high level at the plate (which seems likely) and provide at least palatable glovework (less clear).
The outfield mix contains some good pieces. Michael Conforto is another strong lefty bat; southpaw swinger Dominic Smith off the bench is quite the luxury. J.D. Davis was a beast last year. Cespedes may now be ready for a delayed Opening Day. It’s just … those pieces don’t really seem to be from the same puzzle. The Mets seemingly declined to sacrifice long-term value (their assessment of it, anyway) to compose a cleaner 2020 picture. Smith and Davis aren’t the most comfortable fits, but the Mets understandably love their bats. The club will bet that talent and depth will produce success in one way or another — which, honestly, doesn’t sound so crazy but could perhaps fail to function in practice.
It’s a much simpler situation in the infield, where the Mets have no choice but to hope for a bounce back from Robinson Cano, continued growth of double-play partner Amed Rosario, and further excellence from Jeff McNeil (who’ll step in at third base) and lovable new star Pete Alonso. Behind the dish, the Mets will hope that Wilson Ramos can sustain some improvements in meshing with the pitching staff late in 2019 and keep Tomas Nido as the reserve. Utility candidates include Luis Guillorme, Eduardo Nunez, Max Moroff, and Jed Lowrie — if he’s able to get back to health.
There’s an awful lot of potential pop in that assembly of bats, though there’s also potential for offensive variance and the defensive picture isn’t as compelling. But the potential for swings between greatness and disaster is all the more evident in the pitching staff.
Nobody is going to complain about a starting unit fronted by the game’s top pitcher (Jacob deGrom), one of its highest-upside hurlers (Noah Syndergaard), and an accomplished but still-youthful sidekick (Marcus Stroman). With talented lefty Steven Matz now joined by Porcello and Wacha, there’s an appealing back-end mix. But several of these hurlers have had health issues of late and the depth falls off considerably from that point. Still, this remains the Mets’ chief strength. There’s obvious potential for this to be the game’s best rotation.
The toughest place on the roster to project is undoubtedly the bullpen. Rewind a few years, and you’d be looking at an all-out monster of a unit featuring some of the game’s best short-stint hurlers in Betances, Brach, Edwin Diaz, and Jeurys Familia. That’s not all. Seth Lugo was outstanding last year, lefty Justin Wilson was good as well (and has been better in the past), and Robert Gsellman has a track record that suggests he can be a solid contributor. It’s just that … it’s hard to ignore the terrible outcomes (or lack of innings) produced by much of this group last year. The Mets have a lot of cash invested in this unit and can’t be sure they have up-and-coming arms or available resources to patch any holes that arise.
2020 Season Outlook
The Mets look about as good on paper as any team in the division. And there’s arguably a greater ceiling with this club than its chief competitors. That said, it’s precisely the sort of competitive position where some added expenditures might’ve gone a long way. And it’s not clear whether ownership will give the front office spending capacity to bolster the roster if it’s in position to add at mid-season (if that’s even an option in a truncated campaign). Mets fans will have to hope for the best … all while waiting to see what comes of an uncertain ownership situation following the collapse of an agreed-upon sale of the franchise.
How would you grade the Mets’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)
How would you grade the Mets' offseason?
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B 45% (1,336)
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C 36% (1,064)
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D 8% (242)
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A 7% (192)
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F 4% (116)
Total votes: 2,950
Coronavirus Plan Updates: Cardinals, Astros, Mets, Royals, Rays
Teams have taken various approaches in the wake of the coronavirus hiatus. Some more details have emerged about how a few teams plan to handle the unpredictable situation.
- The Cardinals had initially planned to largely disperse, with only ten to fifteen players remaining at the team’s Florida complex. It seems they’ve reversed course somewhat. Fifteen to twenty-five players will stick around for the time being, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. They’ll continue to work out informally, but they unsurprisingly plan to pare back the training intensity, especially on the pitching side. Cardinals officials anticipate an eventual abbreviated “2.0 spring training,” in the words of manager Mike Shildt, that’ll last around two weeks in advance of MLB’s official regular season start date. Technically, MLB could return as soon as April 9, but it’s unlikely games will get underway until at least May.
- The Astros will split into two groups to train, pitcher Lance McCullers announced (h/t to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Some members of the club will remain in the team’s spring complex in Florida, while others are headed back to Houston. The players plan to work out collectively.
- Most of the Mets‘ coaching staff will stay at the team’s Florida spring complex, as will many players on the team, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Newsday’s Tim Healey recently reported that most of the team would stay put.
- As of yesterday, the Royals were holding tight at their Arizona spring facility, reports Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star. As pitcher Danny Duffy acknowledged to Worthy, the fluid situation could call for a change in plans at any time.
- A good portion of the Rays’ roster is holding tight at the team’s spring complex for now. 30-35 players took part in an informal workout yesterday, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Unlike some other clubs, Tampa has no plans to conduct any sort of team-wide vote on the matter, Topkin adds, preferring to let players decide on a case-by-case basis their preferred course of action.
MLBTR Poll: Bauer vs. Ray vs. Stroman
Baseball’s hiatus gives us an opportunity to examine both the past and future of the sport. Yesterday, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked back at a potential franchise-altering trade that never materialized. Today, we’ll turn our attention to the future: specifically, the upcoming free agent class.
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ran his initial 2020-21 free agent power rankings a few weeks ago. No question, Mookie Betts looks like the jewel of a position player heavy class. Yet the pitching side looks a bit muddled. Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray and Marcus Stroman checked in alongside one another (in that order) as the three arms in Tim’s top ten. Obviously, there’s time for one to emerge as the unquestioned top starter on the market in 2020. As of now, though, which hurler do the MLBTR readers anticipate getting the top guarantee next winter, and which one would you prefer your favorite team roll the dice on?
- Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati: For most of his career, the 29-year-old Bauer’s been a durable, mid-rotation type. He’s soaked up tons of innings, but in five of six seasons, he’s put up an ERA between 4.18 and 4.55 (with marginally better FIP’s). At his best, though, Bauer flashed a ceiling most pitchers can only dream of. In 2018, the former #3 overall pick worked to a 2.21 ERA with an elite 30.8% strikeout rate. An unsustainably low HR/FB rate meant that ERA always figured to regress somewhat, but it was still surprising to see Bauer post a league-average 4.48 mark in 2019. Bauer, of course, has expressed a desire to sign a series of one-year deals as a free agent. If he sticks to that plan, he’ll almost certainly not garner the top overall guarantee for a pitcher this offseason (or any other). But that high-risk approach is easier to espouse in theory than in practice, and Bauer recently walked back that plan a little bit. His free agency will be fascinating to follow.
- Robbie Ray, Arizona: A bit like Bauer, the 28-year-old Ray is a tantalizing but somewhat frustrating talent. Since the start of 2017, he ranks fifth among starters (minimum 300 innings) in strikeout rate and 12th in swinging strike rate. He’s surrounded by the game’s aces on both leaderboards. Only Tyler Chatwood and Francisco Liriano have higher walk rates than Ray in that same period, though. The southpaw has never had a season with a better than average walk rate; that general inefficiency has run up some high pitch counts and helped prevent Ray from ever eclipsing 175 innings in a season. His ERA’s the past four years have varied quite a bit (4.90, 2.89, 3.93, 4.34). Teams could have different evaluations for Ray’s future, but the most likely outcome seems to be solid mid-rotation production via something of an extreme approach.
- Marcus Stroman, Mets: Unlike his top two competitors, Stroman doesn’t generate many whiffs. The 28-year-old’s sinker is more conducive to a ground-ball heavy game. He throws strikes and has managed to avoid home runs even in the juiced ball era thanks to strong contact management. Stroman’s sinker/slider/cutter mix isn’t the four-seam/curveball combination coveted by most teams nowadays. Nevertheless, he’ll have plenty of suitors since he’s proven capable of ample success. 2018 was an injury-marred struggle, but Stroman’s put up at least 184.1 innings in three of the past four seasons and boasts a career ERA of 3.76. That’s a better track record of run prevention than either Bauer (4.04) or Ray (4.11) can boast.
- Others: Other free agents to be (complete list of 2020-21 free agents) include Kevin Gausman, James Paxton, Alex Wood and Taijuan Walker. Between age, injuries and/or recent underperformance, it’s tough to project any of them to beat Bauer, Ray or Stroman this winter. Perhaps you’re more optimistic about someone a bit under-the-radar?
Which Free Agent Starter Will Earn The Largest Guarantee In 2020-21 Offseason?
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Trevor Bauer 43% (3,272)
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Marcus Stroman 28% (2,160)
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Robbie Ray 24% (1,837)
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Other (specify in comments) 4% (314)
Total votes: 7,583
poll link for app users
Which 2020-21 Free Agent Starter Will Prove To Be The Best Investment For A Team?
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Trevor Bauer 41% (2,217)
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Marcus Stroman 34% (1,834)
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Robbie Ray 25% (1,371)
Total votes: 5,422
poll link for app users
14 NL East Pitchers Looking For Bounce-Back Years
We took a look Tuesday at 10 position players from the National League East who are hoping 2020 goes better than last year did. Let’s now explore an even larger selection of pitchers seeking rebound efforts this season…
Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Braves:
Foltynewicz was an indispensable part of the Braves’ rotation two years ago, but the beginning of last season went so poorly for him that the team optioned him to Triple-A in late June. Upon his return in August, Foltynewicz was a much better pitcher, his horrid performance in the Braves’ NLDS elimination game against the Cardinals notwithstanding. The two-time defending division champion Braves will need his August-September to carry over, as their rotation’s dealing with some uncertainty because of Cole Hamels‘ shoulder problems.
Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Mets:
To be clear, last season was not a poor one for Syndergaard by any means. He amassed a personal-high 197 1/3 innings, continued to average upward of 97 mph on his fastball and posted 9.2 K/9 against 2.28 BB/9. Moreover, Syndergaard was a Statcast darling, ranking near the top of the majors in average exit velocity against, expected weighted on-base average and hard-hit percentage, among other categories. On the other hand, his normally stellar run prevention hit career-worst levels. Syndergaard wound up with a 4.28 ERA/3.60 FIP. That’s fine, but it’s not the front-of-the-rotation type of production we’ve grown accustomed to seeing him log.
Rick Porcello/Michael Wacha, RHPs, Mets:
We’ll lump these two together because they’re both offseason signings who could factor into the back of the Mets’ rotation. Porcello, a former Cy Young winner with the Red Sox, continued to chew up innings last year (174 1/3), but he couldn’t keep runs off the board. His ERA (5.52) was dead last among qualified starters, while his 4.76 FIP checked in as the game’s seventh-worst figure. But the Mets took a $10MM gamble on the durable 31-year-old. That came after they spent $3MM on Wacha, a former Cardinal who – contrary to Porcello – has not been the picture of durability. Wacha has typically stopped runs at a quality clip, but that wasn’t the case last season – a year in which he shuffled between the Cardinals’ rotation and bullpen and concluded with a 4.76 ERA/5.61 FIP over 126 2/3 frames. Career-worst walk and home run-to-fly ball rates of 3.91 and 22 percent, respectively, dragged him down.
Edwin Diaz/Jeurys Familia/Dellin Betances, RHPs, Mets:
Lots of Mets on this list, aren’t there? Diaz was supposed to be the team’s end-of-game savior last season after coming over in a blockbuster trade with the Mariners. He turned in one of the greatest seasons in the history of relievers the year prior, so you can’t blame the Mets for expecting his excellence to continue. Instead, opposing hitters tattooed the 25-year-old for a 5.59 ERA/4.51 FIP and 2.33 home runs per nine across 58 innings, leading to seven blown saves in 33 attempts (Diaz went 57-of-61 in those situations in 2018). But if the HR rate and the .377 batting average on balls in play return to earth in 2020, Diaz should be OK. He did, after all, strike out 15.36 hitters per nine (against 3.41 walks) and average almost 98 mph on his fastball last year.
Like Familia, Diaz came to the Mets as a ballyhooed offseason pickup a year ago. As someone who pitched well for the Mets in his prior stint with the team, Familia was already a known commodity to the club. However, New York didn’t get the version of Familia it expected in 2019. He continued to throw hard (in the 96 mph range), but a bloated walk rate of 6.3 per nine contributed to an awful 5.70 ERA/4.88 FIP in 60 frames. Like Diaz, an inflated BABIP (.346) was among the contributors to Familia’s struggles, though he earned that to some degree with a 7 percent increase in hard-hit rate.
Betances is the lone member of this trio who’s not coming off a poor season. The longtime Yankee, whom the Mets signed to a $10.5MM guarantee on Christmas Eve, is just trying to bounce back from an injury-wrecked year. Betances only made one appearance last year after battling shoulder troubles. And when he was leaving the mound following that September outing, the four-time All-Star suffered a partial tear of his left Achilles tendon.
Sean Doolittle/Roenis Elias, LHPs, Nationals:
Doolittle was incredibly dominant for the Nationals two years ago, and though he helped the team to a World Series last fall, his regular season wasn’t as productive. His ERA and FIP (4.05/4.25) each increased by more than two runs, while his strikeout, walk and groundball rates (9.9 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 25.3 percent) were also markedly worse than they were during the previous season. Elias experienced a similar drop-off, and injuries limited him to four appearances for the Nats after they acquired him from the Mariners at the July 31 trade deadline. But he and Doolittle will head into the new season as the top two southpaws in Washington’s bullpen.
Adam Conley, LHP; Drew Steckenrider, RHP, Marlins:
The hard-throwing Conley was a fairly solid piece out of the Marlins’ bullpen in 2018. That wasn’t the case last season – a 60 2/3-inning campaign in which he pitched to a 6.53 ERA/5.19 FIP with 7.86 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a 37.9 percent grounder rate. Conley also saw his swinging-strike rate fall by more than 4 percent, though he did give up fewer hard-hit balls, and a .351 BABIP didn’t help matters.
Steckenrider joined Conley two seasons ago in seemingly emerging as a respectable late-game arm for Miami. However, thanks in part to elbow troubles, he never really got off the ground last year. Steckenrider only tossed 14 1/3 innings, in which he yielded 10 earned runs on nine hits – including six home runs.
Jake Arrieta, RHP, Phillies:
Arrieta’s a former Cy Young winner with the Cubs who hasn’t performed as hoped since the Phillies signed him to a three-year, $75MM guarantee entering 2018. The 34-year-old dealt with a serious elbow injury last season, holding him to 135 2/3 innings (his fewest since 2013) and a 4.64 ERA/4.89 FIP.
Seranthony Dominguez/Victor Arano, RHPs, Phillies:
These two relievers were terrific out of the Phillies’ bullpen in 2018, but their health failed them last year. They combined for just 29 1/3 innings, most of which came from Dominguez. Whether they rebound this season will obviously depend in part on whether they’re actually able to take the mound with consistency. Arano, whom elbow surgery largely kept off the hill in 2019, does look as if he’s trending toward Opening Day readiness. That’s not the case for Dominguez, who just suffered a setback in his own recovery from elbow woes.