Mets, Yankees Reportedly Holding Second Meetings With Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto reportedly met with a contingent of Mets officials including owner Steve Cohen, president of baseball operations David Stearns, manager Carlos Mendoza, and pitching coach Jeremy Hefner at Cohen’s home Saturday night, according to a report from Joel Sherman of the New York Post. It’s the second known meeting between the Mets and Yamamoto this offseason following Cohen’s trip to Japan earlier this month. SNY’s Andy Martino reports that Yamamoto will also hold a second meeting with the Yankees while he’s in New York.
Yamamoto, 25, is widely regarded as the top starting pitcher on the free agent market this offseason. His market has begun to heat up in recent weeks, with a report earlier this month indicating that seven top suitors had emerged in the Yamamoto sweepstakes. Subsequent reports have indicated that each of the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, Blue Jays, and Phillies have met with Yamamoto, leaving that group as the likely finalists for the youngster’s services. While Martino reports that discussions between the Mets and Yamamoto have not yet reached the stage of a formal offer, Sherman indicates that the bidding process between interested clubs is expected to “intensify” this coming week, with a resolution expected before the end of the calendar year. That’s hardly a surprise, as Yamamoto’s posting window expires on January 4.
With so many big market teams involved in the bidding process, rumors have swirled that Yamamoto’s final price tag could exceed $300MM. Though that hefty sum could factor in the posting fee owed to the Orix Buffaloes as compensation for Yamamoto’s services, it would nonetheless be an astounding contract for the right-hander. Yankees ace Gerrit Cole‘s $324MM pact currently standing as the only contract (except that of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani) among starting pitchers to reach the $300MM threshold. That Yamamoto could even approach that stratosphere without having even thrown a pitch in the majors is a testament to his unique combination of youth and immense talent. Across seven seasons with the Buffaloes, Yamamoto has never posted an ERA above the 2.35 figure of his rookie season and has posted sub-2.00 ERAs in four of his last five seasons, including a microscopic 1.16 ERA in 171 frames this past season.
After parting ways with future Hall of Famers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the trade deadline over the summer, the Mets could certainly use the sort of front-of-the-rotation caliber arm Yamamoto projects to be. While the club has already added Luis Severino to its starting staff this offseason, even a bounce-back season from the righty would leave the Mets with holes to fill in a rotation that includes little certainty behind Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana. Righty Tylor Megill and lefty Joey Lucchesi appear to be the most likely internal candidates to round out the club’s rotation as things stand.
As for the Yankees, the club is in a somewhat similar boat with little certainty behind Cole. Though lefties Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon have both flashed front-of-the-rotation potential in the past, both southpaws are coming off down seasons in 2023 during which they were plagued by injuries and under performance. Meanwhile, the club has little depth outside of that trio and Clarke Schmidt after shipping rotation candidates Michael King, Randy Vasquez, and Jhony Brito to the Padres in exchange for Juan Soto earlier this month.
One wrinkle in the New York clubs’ pursuits of Yamamoto is their backup plans should he ultimately sign elsewhere. While the Yankees are generally expected to pivot to other top-of-the market arms such as Shota Imanaga in the event they fail to sign Yamamoto, the Mets appear unlikely to do the same. Recent reports have indicated that Stearns’s front office is not expected to pivot to other top-of-the-market options like Imanaga, Jordan Montgomery, and Blake Snell in the event that the club misses on Yamamoto. Per the report, the Mets view Yamamoto as a uniquely valuable player worth splurging on, but would otherwise prefer to focus on shorter-term deals for mid-market arms such as Lucas Giolito as they look to rebuild their rotation mix.
Yankees Interested In Shota Imanaga
As the Yankees consider the pitching market, left-hander Shota Imanaga is one of the many hurlers on the team’s radar, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Imanaga would essentially be a backup plan if the Yankees can’t sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has long been cited as one of the Bronx Bombers’ top offseason targets.
It isn’t a stretch to say other teams could be viewing Imanaga in the same manner, given the overlap in suitors between his market and Yamamoto’s market. The Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets, and Tigers have all been linked to both Japanese pitchers at various points this offseason, and the Cubs are the only known Imanaga suitor who doesn’t appear to be in on Yamamoto. This could theoretically give Chicago a slight edge in being able to more fully focus on its courtship of Imanaga, yet the southpaw and his reps probably aren’t likely to sign a deal until Yamamoto makes his decision, so Imanaga can perhaps benefit by finding a larger deal in a thinning pitching market.
The clock is ticking for Yamamoto and Imanaga given the 45-day posting windows for both players, though there is plenty of time left for the two pitchers to land contracts. Yamamoto has until January 4 to sign with a Major League team, while Imanaga has until January 9. As per the terms of the MLB/NPB posting system, a Japanese team who posts a player is entitled to a posting fee worth 20% of first $25MM of the player’s eventual big league contract, 17.5% of the next $25MM, of anything beyond the $50MM threshold. For instance, the Yokohama BayStars (Imanaga’s NPB team) would receive a $13.875MM release fee if the lefty signed the five-year, $85MM deal predicted in MLBTR’s top 50 free agents list.
Recent reports have suggested that the 30-year-old Imanaga might land a contract closer to $100MM, speaking to both the rising costs of pitching and the interest in his services. That would still make Imanaga a much less costly proposition than Yamamoto, whose price tag was expected to top $200MM heading into the offseason and now might be approaching the $300MM mark.
Imanaga is almost five years older than Yamamoto and isn’t considered to have a similar ace-level ceiling, but Imanaga projects as a solid middle-of-the-rotation type of arm as he makes the move from Nippon Professional Baseball to the majors. Imanaga has a 3.18 ERA over 1002 2/3 career innings for the BayStars, with excellent control, very good strikeout numbers, and quite a bit of durability (with the exception of a shoulder surgery in 2020).
The Yankees dealt away a good chunk of their rotation depth by moving Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez, and top prospect Drew Thorpe to the Padres in the Juan Soto trade. Gerrit Cole is the ace of a staff that includes Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes, and Clarke Schmidt, and the fifth spot in the rotation is now a question mark with King in San Diego. Signing Imanaga would bolster the rotation for 2024 and beyond, and while a $100MM deal isn’t exactly a bargain signing, New York might prefer that outlay to other alternatives. Signing another top pitcher might cost even more in both money or in draft picks (for a qualifying offer-rejecting hurler), or the Yankees would have to surrender even more young talent to land a top trade chip like Corbin Burnes or Dylan Cease.
Yankees, Duane Underwood Jr. Agree To Minor League Deal
The Yankees are signing right-hander Duane Underwood Jr. to a minor league contract, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The righty will receive an invite to major league Spring Training.
Underwood, 29, had a challenging year in 2023. He tossed 24 1/3 innings for the Pirates with a 5.18 earned run average. His 44% ground ball rate was solid but he struck out just 14% of batters faced while giving out walks at an 11% clip. He also threw 20 innings in Triple-A with a 6.30 ERA. He was outrighted by the Pirates during the season and elected free agency in October.
Despite that rough season, the Yanks are likely intrigued based on the previous two campaigns. Over 2021 and 2022, Underwood threw 130 innings with a 4.36 ERA, 21.1% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate and 45.7% ground ball rate. He might have been unlucky in that time, with his .324 batting average on balls in play and 66.5% strand rate each falling on the unfortunate side of average. That’s why his 3.68 FIP in that stretch looks far nicer than his ERA.
Underwood will provide the Yanks with a bit of non-roster depth for the bullpen. If he is able to crack the roster at any point, he is out of options, meaning he couldn’t be sent back down to the minors without first being exposed to waivers. His service time clock is currently between three and four years, meaning he could be retained for future seasons via arbitration if things go especially well in 2024.
Pirates Acquire Billy McKinney From Yankees
The Pirates have acquired outfielder Billy McKinney from the Yankees in exchange for international bonus pool money, reports Jack Curry of Yes Network. As noted by Curry, McKinney just recently signed a minor league deal with the Yanks. That means he wasn’t on the 40-man roster and won’t take a roster spot with the Bucs.
It’s an unusual trade as McKinney, 29, just signed that deal with the Yankees last week. The former first-round pick and former top 100 prospect hasn’t been able to put it all together at the big league level. In 311 big league games dating back to his 2018 debut, he’s hit .209/.284/.390 for a wRC+ of 81.
He got into 48 contests for the Yankees this year, walking in 11.6% of his plate appearances but also striking out at a 26.5% rate. His .227/.320/.406 batting line amounted to a 101 wRC+, indicating he was right around league average overall, but the Yankees outrighted him off the roster at season’s end. He elected free agency and returned on a minor league deal but will now jump to the Pirates’ organization.
It’s possible that McKinney’s acquisition is related to the Pittsburgh catching situation. Prospects Endy Rodríguez and Henry Davis both debuted in 2023, but Rodríguez got the majority of the catching duties as Davis spent most of his time in right field. The club has maintained that they still viewed Davis as a catcher and his path to doing so opened up when it was reported this week that Rodríguez will require UCL/flexor tendon surgery and miss the entire 2024 season.
If Davis isn’t an option for the outfield, then the Bucs will have an opening in right field, with Jack Suwinski in center and Bryan Reynolds in left. They have some options on the roster in Joshua Palacios, Connor Joe, Ji Hwan Bae and Canaan Smith-Njigba but McKinney will give them some non-roster depth.
In order to add that depth, they are sending some unknown amount of international bonus pool space to the Yankees. The current international signing period ends tomorrow, so it’s possible the Bucs had a bit of their pool left and weren’t going to use it, while the Yanks had someone in mind to spend it on. Most clubs spend large chunks of their pools right as the period opens, so the amount could be on the low side.
In the event McKinney gets a roster spot, he is out of options but has just over three years of service time. If he has his long-awaited breakout, the Bucs could keep him around beyond 2024 via arbitration.
MLBTR Podcast: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Deferred Money
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The various implications of Shohei Ohtani signing with the Dodgers and Tim’s thoughts on the CBT (1:10)
- The media circus around Ohtani… (9:35)
- ..including this piece by Bob Nightengale of USA Today (11:20)
- Is this deal bad for baseball? (16:55)
- The Yankees acquire Juan Soto from the Padres in a seven-player deal (22:55)
Check out our past episodes!
- Winter Meetings, Ohtani Secrecy, and the Mariners Shedding Salary – listen here
- Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Offseason Questions – listen here
- Aaron Nola, Non-Tenders And The Pace Of The Offseason – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
MLBTR Poll: Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market
With Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto off the board, one of the next big questions of the offseason is what awaits NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The three-time defending Sawamura Award winner as Japan’s top pitcher is widely regarded as the best remaining free agent. Hitting the open market at a nearly unprecedented age of 25, he is generally viewed as a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Yamamoto is coming off a season in which he turned in a 1.21 ERA across 164 innings. He fanned nearly 27% of opposing hitters while issuing walks at a meager 4.4% clip. It was arguably the best season in an illustrious NPB career that has seen the 5’10” righty post a 1.82 ERA in just under 900 innings at baseball’s second-highest level.
The Athletic’s Eno Sarris examined Yamamoto’s repertoire on a pitch-by-pitch basis yesterday. Sarris raved about Yamamoto’s fastball, split, curveball combination and praised the strong command he showed when pitching in the World Baseball Classic last spring. He concurred that Yamamoto projects as a top-flight starter, an assessment shared by evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke at the start of the offseason.
MLBTR predicted Yamamoto would receive a nine-year, $225MM guarantee. Recent indications are that he’ll surpass that mark. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote last week that there’s growing belief within the industry that an MLB team’s expenditure on Yamamoto will top $300MM.
Passan’s suggestion of a $300MM+ investment includes the posting fee which an MLB team would owe to the Orix Buffaloes. (MLBTR’s contract prediction was separate from the posting fee.) That’s calculated as 20% of a contract’s first $25MM ($5MM), 17.5% of the next $25MM ($4.375MM) and 15% of any further spending. A $275MM guarantee for Yamamoto, for example, would come with a $43.125MM posting sum that’d push the overall investment by the MLB club to $318.125MM.
As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324MM deal with the Yankees is the only $300MM+ contract for a one-way pitcher in MLB history. There’s a chance Yamamoto becomes the second pitcher to cross that threshold and at least an outside shot that he beats Cole’s guarantee to establish a new high-water mark.
It doesn’t hurt to have essentially every large-market franchise enamored with his upside. Yamamoto has seemingly been the top target for the Mets all offseason. He’s now the #1 priority for the Yankees and Dodgers after their respective splashes for Soto and Ohtani. The Giants and Blue Jays missed on Soto and Ohtani and are still motivated to make significant splashes. San Francisco made one such move yesterday by signing star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year deal, but even after that hefty expenditure the Giants should still have the payroll and luxury-tax space to accommodate Yamamoto.
Yamamoto hosted Mets owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns in Japan last week. The pitcher is now on a North American tour of his own. He reportedly visited the Giants on Sunday and sat down with Yankee officials on Monday. He met with the Dodgers last night and is slated to meet with the Blue Jays and Red Sox later in the week. One or two others could still be involved.
The Buffaloes posted Yamamoto on November 20. That technically gives him until January 4 to sign, although the process isn’t expected to take that long. Both Passan and Will Sammon of the Athletic suggested last week the touted pitcher is likely to sign well before his posting window closes. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he has chosen his MLB team before Christmas.
How does the MLBTR readership anticipate Yamamoto’s bidding playing out? Where will he land and how lofty a guarantee will he secure?
How Much Will Yamamoto Be Guaranteed (Excluding Posting Fee)?
-
$301-325MM 27% (5,257)
-
$276-300MM 22% (4,180)
-
$251-275MM 14% (2,663)
-
$226-250MM 11% (2,056)
-
$326-350MM 10% (1,933)
-
$200-225MM 7% (1,272)
-
More than $350MM 7% (1,270)
-
Less than $200MM 3% (535)
Total votes: 19,166
Where Will Yamamoto Sign?
-
Yankees 22% (3,933)
-
Dodgers 22% (3,834)
-
Mets 17% (3,024)
-
Giants 13% (2,329)
-
Red Sox 12% (2,092)
-
Other (specify in comments) 7% (1,209)
-
Blue Jays 6% (1,071)
Total votes: 17,492
Reds Notes: Candelario, India, Yankees
The free agency of infielder Jeimer Candelario concluded in surprising fashion recently, with the Reds agreeing to terms with him despite a pre-existing infield logjam. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently took a look at the club’s situation in a pair of columns, noting that the club expects Candelario to play some second base but also that his signing doesn’t increase the chances of Jonathan India being traded.
Candelario has spent his entire major and minor league career playing first and third base, but never at the keystone. His only experience at that position, according to his Baseball Reference page, was two innings of work during winter ball in the 2020-2021 season of the Dominican Professional Baseball League. Despite that lack of experience, the Reds may be willing to put him there in order to maximize versatility. President of baseball operations Nick Krall also recently said that India could perhaps see some time at first.
As Wittenmyer points out, despite the apparent embarrassment of riches on the Cincinnati infield, Candelario and India are the only ones with more than a year of major league experience. Spencer Steer debuted in 2022 but he seems ticketed for a full-time move to the outfield. Each of Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marté and Christian Encarnacion-Strand debuted in 2023. That could still qualify as a surplus since they all looked to be in fairly good form in 2023, to varying degrees, but it’s also within the realm of possibility that someone in that group ends up enduring some kind of sophomore slump. Then there’s the ever-present possibility of a significant injury completely changing the calculus.
The focus on playing multiple positions should help the club overcome any such development. Candelario can take the corners and perhaps second base as well, if such a move is required. India could be at second and maybe first base will be a possibility as well. McLain can take either middle infield spot while De La Cruz and Marté have spent significant time at the positions on the left side, with brief stints at second base as well. Encarnacion-Strand is mostly a first baseman but has appeared at third base and in the outfield corners.
The Reds are still on the hunt for some pitching, and might end up pulling the trigger on a deal that subtracts from this group. They’ve had interest in pitchers like Tyler Glasnow, Shane Bieber and Dylan Cease, none of whom will be just given away by their current club. In terms of leverage in trade negotiations involving those players, it would be in the best interest of Krall and his club to portray themselves as not being motivated to make a trade. But there’s also logic to having extra depth and letting a meritocracy distribute the playing time as the season rolls along.
India was already viewed by some observers as expendable even before Candelario was added into the mix. With this news that Candelario might spend some time at the keystone, that would seem to only make him more redundant but Wittenmyer relays that both players are in Cincy’s plans for 2024.
Wittenmyer also notes that the Yankees were in on Candelario before they finalized the Juan Soto deal. Once that trade was completed, it allowed the Reds to take the lead with Candelario. That would perhaps suggest the Yanks had some willingness to bump DJ LeMahieu into a utility role or perhaps then put Gleyber Torres on the trading block. But after the club got the offensive boost they were looking for by remaking their outfield with the additions of Soto, Trent Grisham and Alex Verdugo, manager Aaron Boone announced that LeMahieu would man the hot corner for them in 2024.
Dodgers Trade Victor Gonzalez To Yankees
11:03am: The two teams have announced the trade.
9:48am: The Yankees are acquiring left-handed reliever Victor Gonzalez and minor league infield prospect Jorbit Vivas from the Dodgers in exchange for minor league infielder Trey Sweeney, reports Alden Gonzalez of ESPN. Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that the Yankees were acquiring a pair of 40-man players from the Dodgers in exchange for a prospect not on New York’s 40-man. The trade clears a pair of spots on L.A.’s roster to accommodate the signings of Shohei Ohtani and Joe Kelly.
Gonzalez, 28, has a minor league option remaining but also comes to the Yankees with a solid MLB track record. He’s capable of stepping directly into manager Aaron Boone‘s bullpen and will likely be viewed as a favorite to do so. He has far more big league experience than fellow southpaw Matt Krook, making Gonzalez an option to join Nick Ramirez as a second southpaw option for Boone.
Gonzalez missed the 2022 season due to an elbow injury that required an arthroscopic debridement procedure, but he’s logged 89 1/3 innings for the Dodgers from 2020-23, pitching to a 3.22 earned run average with solid strikeout and walk rates (23.2% and 8.4%, respectively) in addition to a massive 58.1% grounder rate. The Yankees tend to gravitate toward relievers with plus ground-ball rates and better-than-average velocity, and Gonzalez checks both boxes, averaging just under 95 mph with a sinker that tops out in the upper 90s.
Gonzalez’s 2023 season wasn’t as sharp as his dominant 2020 MLB debut, but he still posted a 4.01 ERA with strikeout and walk rates that were actually improvements over their 2021 levels. The lefty is also among the game’s best in terms of inducing weak contact, evidenced by a career 84.9 mph average exit velocity and 30.7% hard-hit rate — both drastically lower than this past season’s respective league averages of 89 mph and 39.2%.
The Yankees can control Gonzalez for an additional three seasons. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn just a $1MM salary in 2024 and will be due subsequent raises building off that foundation in 2025 and 2026 before reaching the open market in the 2026-27 offseason. Gonzalez offers a similar skill set to that of free agent Wandy Peralta, whom the Yankees have reportedly had interest in re-signing, but Gonzalez will come at a fraction of the fiscal cost.
New York also acquires the 22-year-old Vivas, who’s generally considered one of the better prospects in a deep Dodgers farm. MLB.com pegs him tenth in the system, while FanGraphs had him 11th and Baseball America ranked him 20th. All of those rankings are dated by a few months now, but there’s little that Vivas did during his 2023 campaign to radically drop his stock. He posted an excellent .280/.391/.436 slash with 12 homers, 21 steals and more walks than strikeouts in 109 games as a 22-year-old against older competition in Double-A last year.
Vivas jumped to Triple-A late in the season and turned in a lackluster .225/.339/.294 showing at the top minor league level, but that came in a tiny sample of 121 plate appearances and still came with elite walk (12.4%) and strikeout (15.7%) rates. He’s seen time at both second base and third base, though scouting reports on him question whether he’ll have the arm to ultimately handle the hot corner in the Majors. Even if he doesn’t, Vivas is a close-to-MLB-ready second base prospect with a plus hit tool, double-digit home run power and solid baserunning instincts.
In exchange for an affordable Peralta replacement and a quality second base prospect, the Yankees will surrender Sweeney, whom they selected with the No. 20 overall selection in the 2021 draft. Sweeney briefly reached Double-A as a 22-year-old in 2022, but the 2023 season was his first year with notable experience at that level. The 23-year-old handled himself well, batting .252/.367/.411 in a generally pitcher-friendly setting, popping 13 homers and swiping 20 bases with a gaudy 13.8% walk rate and lower-than-average 19.1% strikeout rate.
Sweeney is a well-regarded prospect himself, but perhaps a step below the rung many Yankees fans would expect based on his draft pedigree. FanGraphs ranked him third in the Yankees’ system, but MLB.com had him eighth and Baseball America tabbed him 15th. Sweeney is a bat-first prospect whose long-term future hinges on whether he can stick at shortstop, move to third base on a full-time basis, or settle in as a utility infielder who can bounce around the diamond. He’s a relatively near-MLB addition to the Dodgers’ system, effectively replacing Vivas but doing so without requiring a spot on the 40-man roster until next offseason.
Yankees To Acquire Two 40-Man Roster Players From Dodgers
The Yankees are poised to acquire two players on the Dodgers’ 40-man roster in exchange for a prospect not on the 40-man, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The names of the players in the deal are not yet known. Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirms Rosenthal’s report while adding that the deal, which is pending a medical review, would send one “end of roster” pitcher to the Yankees alongside a prospect on the 40-man roster. The deal would clear 40-man roster spots for LA’s reported deals with right-hander Joe Kelly and superstar Shohei Ohtani.
While it’s unclear which players are changing hands in the deal, it’s hardly a surprise that the sides would get together on such a trade. After all, the Dodgers’ 40-man roster is currently full, meaning they already needed to clear space on the 40-man to formally add Kelly and Ohtani. On the other hand, the Yankees just cleared two spots from their own 40-man roster in a seven-player trade with the Padres that brought back star slugger Juan Soto. While the additions of both Soto and center fielder Trent Grisham take up 40-man roster spots, that’s more than made up for by the departures of right-handers Jhony Brito, Michael King, and Randy Vasquez as well as catcher Kyle Higashioka. A deal between the sides allows the Dodgers to recoup some value for players they likely would have had to part with anyway, while the Yankees figure to take advantage of LA’s roster crunch to begin rebuilding its pitching depth in the aftermath of the Soto deal.
Scott Boras Discusses Gerrit Cole’s 2024 Opt-Out Clause
Yankees ace Gerrit Cole just won the first Cy Young award of his career in a unanimous vote last month, adding another significant accomplishment to the right-hander’s incredible resume. The Yankees, meanwhile, are desperate to get back to the playoffs after an 82-80 campaign in 2023. The club dealt away much of its big-league ready pitching depth in order to acquire Juan Soto and Trent Grisham in a seven-player deal last week. While the trade bolstered the club’s lineup considerably, it leaves them more reliant than ever on the 33-year-old than ever as they look ahead to the 2024 season. While bounceback seasons from the likes of Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes could certainly take some of the burden off Cole’s shoulders, it’s hard to imagine much success in the Bronx next year if Cole can’t muster a repeat performance.
Betting on Cole is a fairly safe decision for the Yankees. Since being swapped from the Pirates to the Astros prior to the 2018 season, Cole has been at or near the top of virtually all pitching leaderboards. His 28.5 fWAR over the past six seasons leads all MLB pitchers, and no hurler has thrown more innings than Cole’s 1,076 2/3 frames. Cole’s 2.93 ERA is only outclassed by Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Walker Buehler among starting pitchers in that timeframe. His 33.4% strikeout rate is only outclassed by deGrom, Chris Sale, and Tyler Glasnow, while his 2.97 SIERA is bested by only deGrom and Sale. That combination of dominance and durability puts Cole on the shortlist for the best starting pitchers in the game at the moment.
As Cole enters year five of his nine-year, $324MM contract with the Yankees, speculation has begun to arise regarding the opt-out he holds on the final four years of this contract in New York. Even as Cole would be entering the free agent market at the age of 34, it seems all but certain that the righty would be able to top the four years and $144MM remaining on his contract on the open market barring a catastrophic 2024 campaign. With that being said, the contract isn’t as simple as Cole holding the sole decision over his opt-out clause. Should Cole decide to exercise his opt-out, the Yankees can void that decision by tacking an addition year and $36MM onto Cole’s existing contract, effectively offering him a one-year, $36MM extension that would take the sum of his deal in the Bronx to $360MM over ten years.
Agent Scott Boras, who represents Cole, has indicated he believes that’s exactly how the situation will play out next year. As quoted by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, Boras indicated that he and Cole “would anticipate” that both Cole opting out of his contract and the Yankees voiding that decision “are going to happen” next offseason. It’s a reasonable assumption to make, given the likelihood that Cole will be able to command a guarantee greater than $144MM on the open market next season. For him to actually get the opportunity to test the open market, the Yankees would need to decide they aren’t interested in retaining Cole on what would effectively be a five-year, $180MM contract.
Assuming Cole posts a reasonable facsimile of his recent performance in 2024, such a deal would appear to be roughly fair market value for his services. After all, deGrom received a five-year, $185MM contract from the Rangers last winter entering his own age-35 campaign, despite the fact that he had pitched just 156 1/3 innings over the 2021-22 seasons. Cole, by contrast, has already surpassed that tw0-year innings total before throwing a single pitch in 2024. While the $36MM average annual value of the deal would be among the heftier yearly salaries in the game, it’s no different than what the Yankees are currently paying Cole and clubs around the league haven’t shied away from offering large annual salaries to top starting pitchers, even as they grow older. The deals Scherzer and Verlander signed with the Mets the past two offseasons are perhaps the best examples of this, and each veteran hurler was offered an AAV north of $40MM on pacts that would cover Scherzer’s late thirties and Verlander’s early forties.