Rays Trade Shane Baz To Orioles
The Orioles bolstered their rotation with an intradivision swap netting them right-hander Shane Baz from Tampa Bay, the teams announced Friday. In return, the Rays receive outfielder Slater de Brun, catcher Caden Bodine, right-hander Michael Forret, outfielder Austin Overn and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick. Baltimore designated lefty Josh Walker for assignment to open a roster spot for Baz (more on that move here).
Baz, 26, will step right into Baltimore’s rotation. As is the case with the recently traded Grayson Rodriguez, Baz once ranked as one of the sport’s top pitching prospects. In fact, a look back at Baseball America’s top 100 prospects of the 2022 season shows Rodriguez at No. 6 and Baz right behind him at No. 8.
Baltimore, of course, traded Rodriguez and his remaining four years of club control to the Angels in exchange for the final year of club control over slugging corner outfielder Taylor Ward. Rodriguez hasn’t pitched in a big league game in nearly 18 months due to injuries. Baz has his own lengthy injury history but pitched a career-high 166 1/3 innings across 31 starts for Tampa Bay last season. The two are different pitchers with different skill sets and different levels of risk, and both are projects (to varying extents). But it’s nevertheless notable that the O’s shipped out one former top-10 pitching prospect and just weeks later effectively replaced him by acquiring another.
In 2025, Baz worked to a 4.87 earned run average but drew more favorable reviews from metrics like SIERA (3.95) and FIP (4.37). He fanned 24.8% of his opponents, issued walks at a 9% clip and kept the ball on the ground at a better-than-average 46.7% rate. Home runs were the biggest problem for Baz, who saw 15.6% of the fly-balls against him clear the outfield fence and allowed an overall average of 1.41 homers per nine innings pitched.
Specifically, Baz was homer-prone in right-on-right matchups. The Rays played last year’s “home” games at Tampa’s Steinbrenner Field (the Class-A affiliate for the Yankees) while Tropicana Field was undergoing repairs after significant damage at the hands of Hurricane Milton. Steinbrenner Field played as the second most homer-friendly venue in MLB for right-handed hitters, per Statcast’s Park Factors; Baltimore’s Camden Yards was still homer-friendly to righties, but not nearly to the same extent.
If Baz can rein in the home run woes and continue to stay healthy, he has the makings of a mid-rotation starter. Those aren’t trivial caveats, however — particularly the health one. Baz had arthroscopic elbow surgery prior to the 2022 season, returned to pitch 27 innings that summer, and then went back on the injured list due to an elbow sprain. He underwent Tommy John surgery that September and missed all of the 2023 season and the first half of the 2024 campaign.
Injury concerns notwithstanding, Baz sat 97 mph with his four-seamer this past season and got strong results on a new knuckle curveball that he hadn’t previously used in the majors. Opponents hit just .214 and slugged .321 against that newly implemented breaking pitch. Baz also works off a changeup and a cutter (getting better results with the former in 2025), rounding out a four-pitch arsenal.
The Orioles will control Baz for another three seasons. He’s a Super Two player who’s eligible for the second of his four arbitration raises this offseason. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected an eminently affordable $3.1MM salary for the right-hander. That bumps the Orioles’ projected payroll, per RosterResource, north of $140MM and gives them more than $178MM of luxury tax considerations. They’re still nearly $70MM from the first tax threshold.
Baltimore entered the offseason in clear need of rotation help. Baz adds a capable arm with some yet-untapped upside but isn’t the clear playoff-caliber starter Baltimore has sought (though he has the potential to become that). He joins Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish and Dean Kremer as rotation locks. Tyler Wells, Cade Povich, Brandon Young and Chayce McDermott are all candidates for the fifth spot who are already on the 40-man roster.
That’s solid depth, but the Orioles’ rotation still feels like it’s one veteran arm short. The team’s aggressive signing of Pete Alonso (plus acquisitions of Ward and Baz) are clear signals of a win-now mindset as they look to put an ugly 2025 season behind them. Adding a proven starter would go a long way toward realizing that goal. Baltimore has been linked to prominent free agents like Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez and Tatsuya Imai — all of whom remain unsigned. Even after adding Alonso, Baz, Ward and free agent closer Ryan Helsley, their projected payroll is more than $20MM shy of last season’s Opening Day mark. There should be room to make another splash on the starting pitching front.
In exchange for the final three years of control over Baz, Tampa Bay is getting several of the Orioles’ top-30 prospects and a well-placed pick in the 2026 draft. Baseball America recently re-ranked the top-10 prospects in Baltimore’s system, placing Forret eighth among the bunch and calling him a potential No. 3 or 4 starter. The 21-year-old righty has strong command and a deep repertoire of six pitches, highlighted by a pair of above-average to plus breaking balls (curveball, sweeper). He split the 2025 season between High-A and Double-A, logging a combined 74 innings with a pristine 1.58 ERA, a huge 32.3% strikeout rate and a tidy 7.4% walk rate.
Forret is the only of the four prospects ranked inside BA’s top 10, though both de Brun and Bodine were top-10 names in the system on MLB.com’s midseason re-ranking of the bunch. The 18-year-old de Brun, in particular, is a big addition. He was selected with the No. 37 overall draft pick — coincidentally enough, a Competitive Balance Round A selection — just this past summer. De Brun didn’t play professionally following that lofty selection. He’ll head to the low minors in Tampa Bay’s system and make his professional debut there in 2026.
Baseball America called de Brun the top high school outfielder in last year’s draft class, lauding his plus-plus speed, above-average hit tool, strong throwing arm and good instincts in center field. He’s listed at just 5’9″ and has below-average power. He’ll be a yearslong development project, but if all goes well, the end result could be a table-setting center fielder with plus base-stealing ability and plus defense.
Bodine, 22, was selected seven picks ahead of de Brun in last summer’s draft. The former Coastal Carolina University standout got his feet wet with 11 games for the Orioles’ Class-A affiliate following the draft and hit well in that small sample. He’s a 5’10”, 200-pound, switch-hitting catcher who draws praise for a plus hit tool and good defensive skills. Like de Brun, he has below-average power. And, as one might expect for a catcher, his speed gets below-average ratings as well. Bodine hit .337/.440/.528 with nearly twice as many walks as strikeouts during his three NCAA seasons and began his pro career with a 14-for-43 showing (13 singles, one double), five walks and eight strikeouts in 49 A-ball appearances.
As with both Bodine and de Brun, Overn is another recent, lofty draft pick for the Orioles. Selected out of USC with the No. 97 pick in 2024, he’s a blistering runner with good defensive skills but fringe power and strikeout concerns. Overn hit .249/.355/.399 between Baltimore’s Class-A and Double-A affiliates in 2025, connecting on 13 homers, 13 doubles and four triples. He also went 64-for-72 in stolen base attempts over just 114 minor league games. MLB.com ranked him 30th in Baltimore’s system following this year’s trade deadline, tabbing him as a potential fourth outfielder or, in a best-case scenario, a speed- and defense-oriented regular. He’ll likely need to improve his hit tool and/or add some more power to get to that ceiling.
The Rays also add a notable draft pick. Baltimore won the fifth pick in Competitive Balance Round A during this month’s lottery. The exact draft order isn’t set yet — draft compensation surrounding free agents who rejected qualifying offers could still impact it — but in 2025 that was the No. 37 overall selection. Coincidentally, that’s the very pick that the Rays traded to the O’s in exchange for reliever Bryan Baker. Baltimore used that pick to select de Brun. It now trades de Brun back to Tampa Bay alongside what could very well end up being the No. 37 pick in the subsequent season’s draft. Last year’s No. 37 pick had a $2.63MM slot value, though de Brun signed for an over-slot $4MM. The Rays are likely adding around $2.7MM in pool space to next year’s draft budget with the acquisition of this pick.
Subtracting Baz depletes a Rays rotation that already looked like it might be one arm short. At the moment, Tampa Bay’s rotation figures to include Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan and Steven Matz. Joe Boyle, Joe Rock, Ian Seymour and top prospect Brody Hopkins are among the internal candidates to step into the five spot. The first three are already on the 40-man roster.
However, the Rays will also surely have McClanahan on an innings limit after he missed the past two full seasons due to UCL and nerve surgeries. They’ll need to add some more innings to this group one way or another. By shipping out Baz and second baseman Brandon Lowe in separate trades this morning, the Rays trimmed more than $14MM off their projected payroll for the upcoming season. Per RosterResource, they now sit at about $78MM. That’s right in line with last year’s Opening Day mark.
Coming off a season in which they missed the playoffs and played their home games in a minor league park, the Rays may not be anxious to add a starter making $10MM+ per year. But Tampa Bay ran an Opening Day payroll of $98MM as recently as 2024 and is now under new ownership. It stands to reason that there could be some room to add a modestly priced starter in free agency. Alternatively, the trades of Baz and Lowe have only revitalized a perennially solid Tampa Bay farm system. The Rays could turn to the trade market to bring in some more help in the weeks ahead.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal first reported that the Orioles were nearing a deal to acquire Baz. ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the agreement and the Rays’ return.
Nine Teams Exceeded Luxury Tax Threshold In 2025
Major League Baseball has finalized its calculations of teams’ competitive balance tax payrolls for the 2025 season. As first reported by The Associated Press, nine teams surpassed the $241MM base threshold. In a separate post, The AP lists the finalized CBT numbers for all 30 teams.
The payments are as follows:
- Dodgers: $169.4MM
- Mets: $91.6MM
- Yankees: $61.8MM
- Phillies: $56.1MM
- Blue Jays: $13.6MM
- Padres: $7MM
- Astros: $1.5MM
- Red Sox: $1.5MM
- Rangers: $190K
Teams pay escalating penalties for exceeding the threshold in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies and Rangers have all paid the tax in at least three straight years — subjecting them to the highest escalator fees. The Astros went over the line for the second straight season. The Blue Jays, Padres and Red Sox had gotten below in 2024 and are categorized as first-time payors.
This is the second straight year in which nine teams paid the CBT. The Braves, Giants and Cubs had gone over the line in ’24 but dipped below this year, which resets their status going into 2026. Atlanta’s active offseason puts them in position to go back into tax territory next year, when the base threshold climbs to $244MM. San Francisco and Chicago each have projected CBT numbers more than $40MM below that right now.
While public estimates from RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts offer an excellent approximation of teams’ payroll commitments, the official numbers are not available during the season. It’s not uncommon for rounding errors in those calculations to vary by a few million dollars. That generally isn’t a big deal but can matter for teams that are hovering very close to the tax line. Each of the Red Sox ($249MM payroll), Astros ($246MM) and Rangers ($241.38MM) were believed to have gone narrowly beyond the $241MM cutoff, but that wasn’t 100% established until this evening — particularly in the case of Texas.
The Dodgers ($417MM), Mets ($347MM), Yankees ($320MM), Phillies ($314MM) and Blue Jays ($286MM) all had payrolls above $281MM. That was the third tier of penalization and marked the point at which a team’s top draft pick is dropped by 10 spots. The Mets were the only of those five that didn’t make the playoffs. Their top pick drops from 17th to 27th. The Yankees, Philadelphia, Toronto and L.A. all have their first-round pick dropped to between 35th and 40th.
Teams that paid the CBT are entitled to the lowest level of compensation for losing free agents who declined a qualifying offer. They receive a draft choice after the fourth round for each qualified free agent who walks. They’re charged the heaviest penalty — their second- and fifth-highest picks in 2026 and $1MM from their ’27 international bonus pool — for signing a qualified free agent from another team.
San Diego and the Mets receive a pick after the fourth round for losing Dylan Cease and Edwin Díaz, respectively. Toronto (Bo Bichette), Houston (Framber Valdez) and Philadelphia (Ranger Suárez) would receive the same if their free agents sign elsewhere. The Dodgers surrendered their second- and fifth-round selections for Díaz. Toronto is slated to do the same for Cease, but if Bichette walks, they’d give up that compensatory pick instead and get their fifth-rounder back.
The Dodgers’ combined payroll and tax bill for the 2025 season lands north of $586MM. The two-time defending champions’ tax hit alone is higher than the payrolls of the bottom 12 teams in the league. There were 14 clubs that had a CBT number above $200MM. The Braves, Cubs, Giants, Angels, Diamondbacks and Mariners were the other six teams above the median. All but Seattle spent more than $200MM.
On the other end, the Marlins ($87MM) and White Sox ($92MM) were the two teams with payrolls below $100MM. The Rays ($103MM), Pirates ($109MM) and Athletics ($118MM) rounded out the bottom five — followed by the Guardians, Nationals, Twins, Brewers and Reds.
Overall, the league will collect just under $403MM in taxes. Teams must make the payments by January 21. The first $3.5MM will be used to fund player benefits. Half the remaining money goes to players’ retirement accounts, while the other half is used for revenue sharing distribution from MLB to teams.
Royals Acquire Matt Strahm
The Royals and Phillies announced a one-for-one reliever swap on Friday morning. Left-hander Matt Strahm heads to Kansas City with righty Jonathan Bowlan going to Philadelphia.
It’s a reunion for Strahm and the Royals, as Kansas City drafted the lefty in the 21st round of the 2012 draft. Strahm made his big league debut for the Royals in 2016 and spent parts of two seasons with the club before being shipped to the Padres in a six-player trade alongside Travis Wood and Esteury Ruiz in order to acquire Trevor Cahill, Brandon Maurer, and Ryan Buchter. Strahm had a career 3.81 ERA and 4.12 FIP in 56 2/3 innings at the time of the trade. He’ll now return to Kansas City nearly a decade later with more than 500 MLB innings and an All-Star appearance under his belt.
Much of Strahm’s tenure with the Padres was fraught with injuries and ineffectiveness, but a solid season with Boston back in 2022 convinced the Phillies to bring him into the fold. Since arriving in Philadelphia, the lefty has emerged as one of the league’s most effective relievers. He has a 2.71 ERA in 212 2/3 innings of work over the past three years with a 2.82 FIP and a 3.01 SIERA. That’s the eighth-most innings of any pitcher with ten starts or fewer over the past three seasons, and among qualified relievers his ERA ranks 10th, his FIP ranks 15th, and his SIERA ranks 21st.
That’s an elite combination of quality and quantity that virtually any bullpen would benefit from adding, and the Royals are no exception. Strahm figures to join closer Carlos Estevez and righty Lucas Erceg at the back of the Kansas City bullpen to create the best late-inning trio the Royals have had since the 2015 club’s “three-headed monster” of Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Kelvin Herrera. With solid arms like Nick Mears, John Schreiber, and Daniel Lynch IV set to cover the middle innings, it’s not hard to imagine the Royals entering 2025 with one of the stronger top-to-bottom bullpens in the American League thanks to this trade. Mears just came over in the same trade that netted Isaac Collins for the Royals but sent lefty Angel Zerpa to the Brewers. Sending out Zerpa cut into Kansas City’s lefty relief group but they have quickly pivoted to Strahm to restock in that department.
The loss of Strahm will surely sting for the Phillies somewhat, but the club remains fairly well set up in terms of their late-inning mix. Jhoan Duran remains one of the league’s top closers, and the recently-acquired Brad Keller was one of the top setup men in the majors last year with the Cubs. From the left side, Jose Alvarado and Tanner Banks should form a quality duo, and Alvarado in particular has offered elite production in the past. Strahm’s name has long been in trade rumors this winter, and clearing his $7.5MM salary off the books could help the Phillies in the pursuit of a reunion with catcher J.T. Realmuto or help them to afford the addition of another outfielder, who could help contribute alongside Brandon Marsh, Adolis Garcia, and top prospect Justin Crawford.
Aside from the financial incentive to make the trade, the Phillies will also receive the services of Bowlan, a 29-year-old righty who made his big league debut in 2023 but just got his first extended look in the majors last year. Bowlan pitched quite well across 44 1/3 innings for Kansas City in 2025, posting a 3.86 ERA with a 3.97 FIP in that time. He struck out 25.6% of his opponents with a 9.4% walk rate and a solid 48.7% ground ball rate.
That ability to generate both strikeouts and grounders should make Bowlan an effective, low-cost addition to a Phillies pen that has plenty of solid options in the late innings but has plenty of spots still fairly unsettled. With less than one year of service time under his belt, Bowlan can be controlled through the end of the 2031 season, affording Philadelphia the opportunity to bring in an arm that could be part of their relief mix for years to come.
Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Strahm was being traded to Kansas City. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand had Bowlan going the other way.
Twins Sign Josh Bell
The Twins announced the signing of free agent first baseman Josh Bell to a one-year deal with a mutual option. It’s reportedly a $7MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client. Bell’s 2026 salary will be $5.5MM. He also receives a $250K signing bonus, and there’s a $1.25MM buyout on the mutual option.
Bell, 33, has been at least an average bat in every season of his decade-long MLB career, with the exception of a poor showing in the shortened 2020 campaign. At times, the former second-round pick and top prospect has looked on the cusp of breaking out as a star-level slugger — most notably in 2019 and 2021 — but he’s never quite produced as the steady power bat one might expect from a hulking 6’3″, 260-pound first baseman.
That’s largely due to the switch-hitting Bell’s penchant for hitting the ball on the ground. Despite his sizable frame and clearly plus raw power, Bell has struggled to maintain a swing path that allows him to elevate the ball. He’s cut his grounder rate in recent seasons, to be fair; last year’s 45.7% mark was actually the second-lowest of his career, ahead of only the 44% mark he posted during a 37-homer campaign back in 2019. However, that 45.7% mark was still well above the 41.8% league average. For a hitter like Bell, whose average sprint speed ranked in just the seventh percentile of big league position players, per Statcast, that much contact on the ground is a clear detriment.
When Bell does elevate the ball, he does so with tremendous authority. Statcast ranked his 96.4 mph average exit velocity on liners/fly-balls 25th among 251 qualified hitters. Bell’s isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) of .507 on fly-balls isn’t elite but is well north of the .436 league average. He popped 22 round-trippers this past season and has averaged 26 homers per 162 games over the past seven seasons — despite his proclivity for hitting the ball into the ground. It’s long been thought that if Bell could consistently elevate the ball, he’d be a high-end slugger, but six teams have now tried to get him to do so consistently and been unable to make it happen.
The end result is typically above-average but not elite offense. Bell hit .237/.325/.417 this past season with the Nationals. His 10.7% walk rate was comfortably north of average and roughly in line with his career 11.2% mark. His 16.5% strikeout rate was the second-lowest of his career. Bell had uncharacteristic struggles with his right-handed swing last season but has traditionally been a solid hitter from both sides of the dish (albeit with better production from the left side). His 90.4 mph average exit velocity and 47% hard-hit rate were his best marks since a strong 2021 season (also spent with the Nats).
The Twins and their fans can perhaps find some optimism in the trajectory of Bell’s 2025 season. He was one of the worst hitters in either league through the end of April but busted out of that slump with a huge showing in May. He took a step back in June and then delivered terrific production over the final three months of the year. Setting aside Bell’s awful first 125 plate appearances of the season (when he had a bloated 50% grounder rate, it should be noted), he hit .278/.358/.462 with 17 homers, 16 doubles, an 11.1% walk rate and a 14.6% strikeout rate. In 250 plate appearances from July 2 onward, he slashed .284/.371/.486 (with a ground-ball rate sitting at 42%).
That’ll be the sort of production for which the Twins hope in 2025. Bell figures to be the primary first baseman for new manager Derek Shelton, who briefly overlapped with Bell during his first season as manager in Pittsburgh. Like most teams, the Twins don’t have a set designated hitter, so Bell could get some looks there, too, if the Twins want to free up some first base time to get Edouard Julien or Kody Clemens into the lineup there. Some additional DH reps for Bell would benefit the team defensively; he posted solid grades at first base back in 2021-22, but Bell has been dinged for -20 Defensive Runs Saved and -16 Outs Above Average over his past 1551 innings in the field. He’s not a skilled defender.
Even with those defensive shortcomings, Bell adds a legitimate bat to the middle of Minnesota’s order. He’s a durable veteran, having appeared in 91.5% of his teams’ possible games dating back to his first season as a full-time regular. That’s an average of better than 148 games per year, and it’s reasonable to expect at least 20 home runs based on his track record, with 25 to 30 not out of the question depending on the extent to which he can avoid falling into another grounder-heavy malaise.
Bell joins Byron Buxton, breakout rookie Luke Keaschall and catcher Ryan Jeffers in the top portion of a Twins lineup that’ll hope for better results from talented but inconsistent young hitters like Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner, Brooks Lee and (if he’s not traded) Trevor Larnach. Top prospects Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Kaelen Culpepper could force their way into the mix next season. Alan Roden will get another chance to prove his big Triple-A production can play in the majors, too.
The signing of Bell only reinforces the fact that despite a deadline fire sale, the Twins are intent on adding back to the roster in an effort to be as competitive as possible in 2026. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey plans to hold onto stars like Buxton, Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez rather than trade them. The Twins were reportedly shopping in the middle tiers of the free agent market at first base, and they’ll presumably use some of the modest budgetary space granted by ownership to add some low-cost relievers as well.
Bell adds $5.75MM to the 2026 payroll, boosting the Twins just north of $100MM in the process, per RosterResource. Dan Hayes of The Athletic has previously reported that the front office has about $20MM to spend this winter. That should mean Falvey, GM Jeremy Zoll and the rest of the front office still have a around $15MM to help deepen the bullpen and perhaps the bench. Given that the Twins shipped out a stunning five relievers at July’s deadline, it seems fair to presume they’ll bring in multiple arms (though they already added one with November’s acquisition of Eric Orze from Tampa Bay).
Overall, payroll will still be down considerably from last year’s $142MM Opening Day mark and certainly from 2023’s franchise-record $153MM. Major additions on either side of the ball shouldn’t be expected. If the Twins compete next season, it’ll be due to big steps forward from in-house talents like Lee, Keaschall, Jenkins, Roden, Taj Bradley, Mick Abel and others. If they fall short of contending in a perennially competitive AL Central, then players like Bell and any of the forthcoming bullpen acquisitions could emerge as trade chips alongside Ryan, Lopez, Jeffers and others.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that the two sides had agreed to a one-year deal with a mutual option. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the $7MM guarantee. Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star-Tribune had the salary structure.
Diamondbacks Sign Merrill Kelly
The Diamondbacks officially announced a reunion with Merrill Kelly on a two-year contract with a 2028 vesting option. The Apex Baseball client is reportedly guaranteed $40MM. He receives a $2MM signing bonus and will make successive $17MM and $21MM salaries. If Kelly reaches 170 innings in 2027, he’ll lock in a $12MM salary for the 2028 season. If he reaches 185 innings in ’27, that ’28 guarantee will jump to $14MM. The D-Backs cleared a roster spot earlier by flipping Kyle Backhus to the Phillies.
The 37-year-old Kelly returns to the team with which he has spent nearly his entire major league career. Though initially drafted by the Rays in the eighth-round of the 2010 draft, Kelly made his big league debut with the Diamondbacks back in 2019 after a four-season stay in Korea as a member of the KBO’s SK Wyverns (now known as the SSG Landers). After a pedestrian rookie campaign in the majors where he pitched to a league-average ERA in 32 starts, Kelly managed to fashion a role for himself as one of the better mid-rotation arms in the majors.
Since the start of the 2022 campaign, Kelly has pitched to a 3.47 ERA in 108 starts. He’s struck out 23.1% of his opponents while walking 7.7% in that time, leaving him with a 3.81 FIP. Although a 4.03 SIERA and other so-so peripherals cast him as a step down from your prototypical front-end starter, the veteran has managed to remain a durable and productive rotation piece. Kelly particularly endeared himself to Arizona fans when he delivered a brilliant 2.25 ERA over 24 postseason innings during the club’s run to the World Series in 2023.
Amid a disappointing 2025 season where the Diamondbacks were ravaged by injuries to everyone from star closers Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk to newly-signed ace Corbin Burnes, the team engaged in a sell-off at trade deadline and shipped Kelly to the Rangers in exchange for a trio of pitching prospects. Kelly put up fairly pedestrian numbers across ten starts with the Rangers: a 4.23 ERA and near-matching 4.18 FIP across 55 1/3 innings of work.
Even while the veteran was in Texas, an offseason reunion with the Diamondbacks was already being speculated upon. Kelly spoke fondly of Arizona and expressed an openness to re-signing when asked about the possibility while the Rangers were visiting Chase Field in the season’s final few weeks. “Definite” interest in a reunion with Kelly was reported on Arizona’s side shortly before last week’s Winter Meetings, and now the sides have come together on a deal.
Turning to the deal itself, Kelly’s $40MM guarantee clocks in just ahead of the two years and $36MM MLBTR predicted for the right-hander when ranking him as the #25 free agent in this offseason’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. The Snakes were aggressive both in their offer and the timing of the deal; while the free agent market for position players and especially relievers has kicked into gear already, Kelly is just the third starting pitcher from MLBTR’s Top 50 to sign a contract this offseason. He joins Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce, both of whom received guarantees that slightly eclipsed MLBTR’s predictions.
Now that he’s set to return to Arizona, Kelly stands as the favorite to start for the Diamondbacks on Opening Day this year. He’ll join a rotation that already added Michael Soroka and will reunite with former teammates Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, and Ryne Nelson. Burnes could be a factor later in the season but is not expected to pitch until sometime in the second half after undergoing Tommy John surgery in June. While the team’s rotation certainly looks much more complete with Kelly back in the fold, bringing the right-hander back shouldn’t stop the team from pursuing other rotation additions after the club’s pitching staff finished 19th in the majors with a 4.29 ERA last year.
Of course, adding beyond this could prove to be easier said than done. The Diamondbacks are projected for a payroll just north of $171MM in 2026, according to RosterResource. That rises to north of $205MM for luxury tax purposes. GM Mike Hazen has suggested that, while Arizona’s payroll would likely be moving downward from its 2025 level, that would still leave the team with room to spend. The club spent $188MM on its payroll last season, however, meaning they currently sit less than $17MM from that mark.
Perhaps that leaves enough wiggle room to reunite with Paul Goldschmidt on an affordable one-year deal, a move the Diamondbacks have been said to be contemplating, but Kelly will surely go down as the team’s biggest expenditure unless an increase in payroll is approved or the team makes a trade that clears salary. To that latter point, the hot stove has been burning with Ketel Marte trade buzz in recent weeks. Moving Marte would certainly clear payroll off the books (and simultaneously add some young rotation options as part of the return), though Hazen has consistently downplayed the likelihood of a deal surrounding Marte actually coming together.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the Diamondbacks and Kelly were finalizing a two-year, $40MM deal. Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reported the option specifics. David Brandt of The Associated Press had the salary structure.
Padres Re-Sign Michael King
December 19th: The Padres officially announced their deal with King today.
December 18th: The Padres have an agreement to re-sign Michael King to a three-year contract with opt-outs after the first two seasons. The Excel Sports Management client is reportedly guaranteed $75MM.
He’ll receive a $12MM signing bonus and a $5MM salary for the 2026 season. He’d collect a $5MM buyout if he opts out of the remaining two years and $53MM. King would make $28MM in 2027 if he opts in and would then have a $30MM player option for the ’28 campaign. While the Padres have yet to announce the deal, he has reportedly already passed his physical.
It’s a surprise strike for a San Diego team that had seemed likely to lose King and Dylan Cease in free agency. It wasn’t clear whether they’d have the short-term spending capacity to keep either pitcher. While they were never expected to come close to the $210MM guarantee which Cease received, they’ll bring King back on a short-term deal to help a rotation that was their top priority.
The 2026 season will be the righty’s third in San Diego. The Padres acquired King as the centerpiece of their Juan Soto return over the 2023-24 offseason. He had run with a limited rotation opportunity late in his final season as a Yankee after years of strong work out of the bullpen. San Diego committed to him as a full-time starter and was rewarded with a career season.
King pitched to a 2.95 earned run average with 201 strikeouts over 173 2/3 innings. He finished seventh in NL Cy Young balloting and entered his walk year as a candidate for a nine-figure contract. He looked on his way to a $150MM+ deal after getting out to an even better beginning to the ’25 campaign. He turned in a 2.59 ERA while striking out 28.4% of batters faced over his first 10 starts.
The Padres scratched King from his outing on May 24 with stiffness in his throwing shoulder. Then-manager Mike Shildt initially framed it as a minor issue that arose when the pitcher slept awkwardly. It proved a much bigger problem. King went on the injured list with what the team called inflammation. They subsequently determined it was a nerve injury that came with a nebulous timeline. He wound up missing almost three months.
King made his return on August 9. He made one start before going back down with left knee inflammation. That cost him another month, and he wasn’t as effective when he made it back for good in September. King didn’t get beyond five innings in any of his final four starts. He gave up 10 runs over 15 2/3 innings. Most of the damage came in an eight-run drubbing at the hands of the Mets on September 16. King’s final two appearances were scoreless, but those came with an uninspiring 7:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
The Padres didn’t fully trust King going into October. They opted for Nick Pivetta, Cease, and Yu Darvish to start in their Wild Card Series loss to the Cubs. King’s only playoff action was one scoreless inning of relief in the decisive Game 3. He struck out three of four batters while averaging 95.6 MPH on his fastball. That was his highest single game velocity of the season. That’s to be expected during a one-inning appearance with the heightened adrenaline of a must-win game, but it was an encouraging sign for the health of his shoulder.
San Diego issued the $22.025MM qualifying offer. It was an easy call for King to decline in search of a multi-year deal. This arrangement functions as a bit of a pillow contract but with a much higher floor than the one-year QO would have provided. King would make $22MM if he opts out after one year. That result would be the same as if he’d accepted the qualifying offer. The extra two guaranteed seasons afford him a lot more injury protection.
King’s guarantee technically falls just shy of MLBTR’s four-year, $80MM prediction. However, the higher average annual value and the opt-outs make this a stronger overall deal for the player. He’ll have a chance to return to free agency in advance of his age-32 season and cannot be tagged with another qualifying offer. A healthier season could position him for a four- or five-year contract.
Health is no small caveat. The ’24 campaign is the only time King has reached even 105 innings in a season. While that’s in part because the Yankees used him as a reliever, King missed extended stretches in 2021 (finger contusion) and ’22 (elbow fracture) in addition this year’s shoulder woes. The Padres are taking on some injury risk but get the upside of a potential top-of-the-rotation arm on a short-term deal.
King and Pivetta project as their top two starters. San Diego has reportedly discussed the latter in trade conversations but would need a huge return to move him. Joe Musgrove is back from Tommy John surgery and slots into the #3 rotation spot. They’ll be without Darvish for the entire season, so the final two starting jobs are up for grabs. Randy Vásquez and JP Sears lead the internal options, but the Padres could look for a cheaper back-end/swing type later in the winter. They’ll surely kick the tires on controllable arms in trade, as well, as both Pivetta and King can opt out.
San Diego’s projected payroll climbs to $218MM, as calculated by RosterResource. The backloaded nature doesn’t change the $25MM AAV used for luxury tax purposes. They’re up to a projected $259MM in tax commitments. They’ll exceed the $244MM base threshold for the second straight season. Repeat payors are taxed at a 30% rate for their first $20MM in overages. Re-signing King costs around $4.5MM in taxes.
The more significant development is that it moves them closer to the $264MM second tier, at which the rate climbs to 42%. The Padres had nearly $280MM in luxury tax commitments this year, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Their actual salary obligations were around $209MM, though, so it’s unclear how much more flexibility the front office has at its disposal. In addition to the need for a back-end starter, they should acquire another bat to plug in at first base or designated hitter and could use a better utility infielder than Will Wagner and Mason McCoy.
King’s deal is the second-largest of the offseason in what has been a slowly developing market for free agent starting pitchers. Cease is the only other starter who has signed for more than $40MM so far. The rotation market should pick up in the next few weeks. NPB star Tatsuya Imai needs to sign before his 45-day posting window closes on January 2. Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez and Zac Gallen join Imai as the top unsigned arms.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com was first on the agreement, contract terms, and the note that the physical is already complete. Image courtesy of Vincent Carchietta, Imagn Images.
Giants Sign Adrian Houser
December 19th: The Giants have officially announced the Houser signing but haven’t yet announced a corresponding move.
December 16th: The Giants and righty Adrian Houser are in agreement on a two-year, $22MM contract, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. There’s a club option for a third season. Houser, a client of the BBI Sports Group, will presumably step right into San Francisco’s rotation next season after a rebound showing in 2025. The Giants, who also announced a one-year deal with former Tigers closer Jason Foley less than an hour ago, will need to free up a pair of 40-man roster spots, as they were already at capacity prior to either of those two agreements.
Houser, who’ll turn 33 in February, was a steady presence in the Milwaukee rotation for several years. From 2021-23, Houser started 68 games for the Brewers (in addition to five relief outings) and logged a 3.94 ERA. His 17.6% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate were both worse than average, but Houser piled up grounders at a 51.3% rate and managed to consistently avoid the long ball (0.83 HR/9).
The Brewers traded Houser to the Mets in the 2023-24 offseason, ahead of what was set to be his final season of club control. He struggled through his lone year in Queens (5.84 ERA in seven starts and 16 relief outings) before being designated for assignment and cut loose. He wound up settling for a minor league contract with the Rangers in free agency last winter. Texas didn’t bring him up to the big leagues prior to an opt-out date, so Houser returned to the market and signed a big league deal with the White Sox — a decision that now stands as a turning point in his career.
Houser hit the ground running and never looked back. In 11 starts with the ChiSox, he pitched 68 2/3 innings of 2.10 ERA ball. As was the case in Milwaukee, Houser posted a strikeout rate well shy of the 22% league average (17.1%), but he did so with better command (8% walk rate) and even fewer round-trippers (0.39 HR/9). Houser’s home run suppression didn’t seem sustainable; only 4.6% of the fly-balls he surrendered with the Sox turned into homers — miles south of the league-average 11.9% mark and his own career mark of 11.5%.
Following a trade to Tampa Bay, Houser indeed saw his home run luck run out. His homer-to-flyball rate jumped to 11.9%, and he averaged 1.12 homers per nine frames. The resulting 4.79 ERA was pretty closely in line with his 4.62 SIERA with Chicago. Still, Houser proved a durable source of innings down the stretch for the Rays, pitching 56 1/3 frames across 10 starts. Overall, he finished out the season with a 3.31 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate, 48.9% ground-ball rate and 0.73 HR/9.
Houser will slot into new skipper Tony Vitello’s rotation behind Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and Landen Roupp. The Giants have a host of candidates for the fifth and final spot on the staff, including (but not limited to) Blade Tidwell, Carson Seymour, Kai-Wei Teng, Trevor McDonald, Hayden Birdsong and well-regarded prospect Carson Whisenhunt.
The Giants have been on the hunt for rotation help this winter, and while they’ve been connected to some of the more prominent names on the market, ownership has publicly expressed a reluctance to commit long-term to a starting pitcher. That’s made fits with pitchers like Tatsuya Imai, Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez seem unlikely, though it’s at least plausible that the Giants could look to further augment their starting staff via the trade market or another shorter-term deal such as today’s Houser agreement.
Given Houser’s inconsistent track record, lack of missed bats and generally unsustainable level of home run suppression with the White Sox, it’s a fairly steep price for the Giants to pay. Then again, San Francisco’s Oracle Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in the sport. Oracle Park is particularly tough on left-handed home run power, which dovetails nicely with Houser’s skill set. He held right-handers to an awful .249/.293/.320 batting line in 2025 (.234/.296/.339 career) but was tagged by lefties for a .274/.356/.456 batting line last season (and .282/.367/.456 for his career).
The addition of Houser pushes San Francisco to about $203MM of luxury tax obligations, per RosterResource. The Giants are more than $40MM shy of the $244MM first-tier threshold. However, while they’ve paid the tax in the past — doing so as recently as 2024 — it’s not clear whether they’re comfortable doing so in 2026. Ownership comments downplaying the possibility of adding additional long-term deals would suggest at least some trepidation about spending to those heights.
The Giants are still looking for help in the outfield, at second base and/or in the bullpen. While the top-end free agents to whom they were loosely linked earlier in free agency (e.g. Imai, Valdez) don’t seem like realistic targets, barring an about-face from ownership on the team’s stance regarding long-term commitments, there are still various avenues to pursue. Free agency offers no shortage of veteran hitters and relievers available on short-term deals, and San Francisco is reportedly among the teams most aggressively pursuing Cardinals infielder/outfielder Brendan Donovan.
President of baseball operations Buster Posey presumably has several more moves up his sleeve, and while the addition of Houser doesn’t necessarily raise the team’s ceiling much, it does boost the floor of a rotation that was pretty rife with question marks beyond the veteran Webb/Ray tandem up top.
Phillies Sign Brad Keller
December 18th: The Phils have officially announced their signing of Keller. According to The Associated Press, he receives a $4MM signing bonus and a $7MM salary for 2026, followed by an $11MM salary in ’27.
December 17th: The Phillies and right-handed reliever Brad Keller are in agreement on a two-year, $22MM contract, reports ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. The deal is pending a physical. Fansided’s Robert Murray first reported that the two parties were nearing an agreement. Keller, who is represented by Excel Sports Management, received some interest as a starter but will be used as a reliever in Philadelphia, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
Keller, 30, was a solid starter with the Royals early in his career after being picked up from the D-backs in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft. After a nice run of three seasons, his numbers took a sharp decline, due largely to the complete erosion of his command.
Keller walked a staggering 45 batters in 45 1/3 innings in 2023 and was subsequently diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. He underwent surgery to alleviate the issue. A comeback effort in 2024 didn’t pan out well, as he pitched to a 5.44 ERA in 41 1/3 frames between the Red Sox and White Sox, but Keller completely remade himself as a high-end bullpen weapon with the Cubs in 2025 after signing a minor league contract.
In 69 2/3 innings this past season, Keller was dominant. His 2.07 ERA tied him for 13th-best among 147 qualified relievers. The 6’5″, 255-pound righty set down 27.2% of his opponents on strikes and notched a sharp 8% walk rate. Keller had sat 92-94 mph as a starter and even in bullpen work with the White Sox and Red Sox in ’24, but his sinker averaged a career-best 96.7 mph in 2025 and his four-seamer clocked in even higher at 97.2 mph. His 56.1% ground-ball rate was a career-best mark, and opponents had an extremely rough time squaring up any of his pitches. His 86.7 mph average exit velocity and 30.6% hard-hit rate were far and away the lowest marks of his career.
There are at least some modest red flags with regard to Keller. His 10.8% swinging-strike is actually below the league average and doesn’t support his well above-average strikeout rate. The quality of his stuff clearly improved, just as the quality of his opponents’ contact deteriorated, but it’s still unlikely that he’ll sustain a .243 average on balls in play over the course of a full season. However, even with some regression in terms of BABIP and strikeout rate, Keller still looks the part of a quality bullpen arm who’ll support an improved late-inning relief contingent for the next two seasons.
Keller should operate as a setup man to deadline acquisition Jhoan Duran, who came over from Minnesota in exchange for top prospects Eduardo Tait and Mick Abel. He’ll join righty Orion Kerkering and southpaws Jose Alvarado, Matt Strahm and Tanner Banks in what should be a formidable setup corps for manager Rob Thomson. There’s still room for the Phils to add another reliever if a deal to their liking presents itself, but they’re six-deep in largely established relief arms with Keller now in the fold.
The $11MM annual value of the contract pushes the Phillies from the third tier of luxury tax penalization to the fourth and final bracket, per RosterResource’s projections. They were already paying a 95% tax on subsequent additions and were about $7MM from the top tier. Keller places them about $4MM over that line. They’ll pay about $22MM for him this season (assuming an even $11MM per year distribution) rather than that $11MM surface value. Any subsequent additions to the payroll at this point will be taxed at the maximum 110% rate.
The Phillies have done a fair bit of offseason work already. They added outfielder Adolis Garcia on a one-year contract just yesterday and, prior to that, re-signed slugger Kyle Schwarber on a huge five-year, $150MM contract. The Phils could still poke around the bullpen market or look for a complementary right-handed bat to pair with Brandon Marsh in left field. Rotation depth could be an issue as well, depending on Zack Wheeler‘s recovery from his own thoracic outlet procedure, so some modest depth adds could be on the horizon. The most notable issue for the club, however, is at catcher, where they’re still hoping to retain longtime backstop J.T. Realmuto. That’ll be top of mind until Realmuto signs, be it in Philadelphia or elsewhere.
Cardinals Sign Dustin May
December 17th: The Cards officially announced May’s signing today. May will make $12.5MM in 2026 and the mutual option is worth $20MM, per Passan. It’s a $12MM salary and a $500K buyout on the option, per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat.
December 13th: The Cardinals are expected to sign right-hander Dustin May, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. It’s a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2027. May spent last season split between the Dodgers and Red Sox.
May was sent to Boston at the trade deadline for James Tibbs and Zach Ehrhard. After scuffling through 19 appearances with L.A., he battled injuries and poor performance with the Red Sox. May set career highs in innings (132 1/3) and games (25) last season, but posted an unsightly 4.96 ERA with an xFIP and SIERA in the mid-4.00s.
St. Louis was in desperate need of rotation depth after trading Sonny Gray to Boston and watching Miles Mikolas hit free agency. The club also lost swingman Steven Matz, who signed with Tampa Bay. May is set to join holdovers Andre Pallante and Michael McGreevy in the rotation. May’s former teammate on the Red Sox, Richard Fitts, will likely be in the mix after coming over in the Gray trade. The Cardinals are considering converting Kyle Leahy into a starter to round out the staff.
The Dodgers spent a third-round pick on May in 2016. He emerged as one of the top pitching prospects in a system typically stocked with elite arms. May made his MLB debut in 2019, working largely out of the bullpen. He spent the majority of the shortened 2020 campaign in the rotation, making 10 starts. It would be the only time he would reach double-digit starts until this past season. Injuries capped May to just 20 games from 2021 to 2023. He missed all of 2024 due to flexor tendon surgery.
May stayed healthy for the first time in 2025, making 19 appearances for the Dodgers. He stumbled to a 4.85 ERA over 104 innings. Despite the performance, May still netted LA an intriguing prospect in Tibbs, a first-round pick in 2024 (by San Francisco). The veteran righty made just six appearances with the Red Sox before right elbow neuritis cut his season short.
The Cardinals are betting on May pairing the flashes of solid production he’s shown in prior seasons with the improved health from 2025. The 28-year-old recorded a sub-3.00 ERA in 2020, 2022, and 2023, albeit in abbreviated campaigns. While he did go down with the elbow issue in September, he still destroyed his previous career bests in terms of workload. May had totaled 101 innings over four seasons before putting up 132 1/3 frames last year. It was the first time in his six-year career that May showed the ability to stay on the mound for any kind of extended stretch.
May has a perplexing pitching profile. He has a GIF-worthy arsenal headlined by a high-spin sweeper and a fastball in the mid to upper-90s. Oddly, the repertoire hasn’t generated whiffs or strikeouts for much of his career. May spiked a 37.6% strikeout rate over five games in 2021, but he’s been at best an average strikeout pitcher in every other season. He posted a middling 21.1% mark between L.A. and Boston last year. May has a modest 8.8% swinging-strike rate for his career. None of his five pitches has a standout whiff rate.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report that the contract was for one year. MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo was first to note the deal included a club option for 2027.
Photo courtesy of Paul Rutherford, Imagn Images
Royals Sign Lane Thomas
December 17th: The Royals have officially announced their signing of Thomas.
December 11th: The Royals and outfielder Lane Thomas are reportedly in agreement on a one-year contract. The Wasserman client receives $5.25MM with another $1MM available via incentives. Kansas City has a couple of open 40-man spots and won’t need to make a corresponding move once the deal is official.
Thomas and the Royals will be looking for a bounceback season, as he just suffered through an injury-marred 2025 campaign with Cleveland. Early in the season, he missed about a month due to a right wrist bone bruise. In the latter months of the season, he went on the injured list a couple of times due to plantar fasciitis in his right foot. He required surgery in September with a projected recovery time of three to four months. Around those IL stints, he got into 39 games and hit just .160/.246/.272.
Prior to that, he had a solid run as a decent regular in the bigs, suiting up for the Cardinals, Nationals and Guardians. From 2021 to 2024, he got into 510 contests, hitting 67 home runs and stealing 66 bases. He produced a .248/.313/.426 line over that four-year span, which translated to a 103 wRC+, indicating he was 3% better than league average.
He was slightly better in the second half of that stretch. Over 2023 and 2024, he hit 43 home runs and stole 52 bases. His combined .255/.312/.439 line in those two seasons translated to a 105 wRC+. FanGraphs credited him with 4.3 wins above replacement, a bit better than two wins per year.
His defense has been more of a question mark. Outs Above Average has given him a minus-16 ranking for his career, but oddly considered him league average in center and subpar in the corners. Defensive Runs Saved has put a minus-18 mark on him, but most of that due to an odd minus-13 grade in 2024 alone.
He clearly has some wheels, as his sprint speed has been ranked in the 93rd percentile or above since he became a regular. With a bit of pop in the bat as well, he has been able to engineer some decent results when healthy.
The Royals have been struggling for years to get production from their outfield. In 2025, they got a collective .225/.285/.348 line from the grass. That resulted in a 73 wRC+, the worst such mark of any team in the majors.
Obviously, upgrading the outfield was going to be a priority this winter. It was recently reported that the club would be looking to add one outfielder via trade and another via free agency, with a right-handed hitter who can play center field being a specific target. The Royals currently project to have an outfield consisting of Jac Caglianone, Kyle Isbel and John Rave. All three hit from the left side. Caglianone was a top prospect coming into 2025 but he didn’t hit at all in his first 232 plate appearances in the big leagues. Rave has just 175 big league plate appearances without much success either. Isbel has more experience but is a glove-first center fielder. They picked up Kameron Misner, another lefty, from the Rays in a trade a few weeks ago.
Thomas has pretty strong platoon splits in his career. He has been punched out in 28.2% of his plate appearances against righties with a .220/.287/.383 line and 84 wRC+. With the platoon advantage, his strikeout rate drops to 19.3%. He has a .292/.359/.500 line against southpaws for a 135 wRC+.
The Royals shouldn’t be done adding to their outfield. As mentioned, they have been looking to make two additions. This at least gives them a short-side platoon guy who can be slotted into any of the three outfield positions, while also perhaps coming off the bench for pinch-running opportunities. His health may be a bit of a question mark with the aforementioned surgery, but the estimated timeline should allow him to be healed up by spring training.
It’s a modest free agent add but the Royals apparently didn’t have much to spend. Owner John Sherman said a couple of months ago that the 2026 payroll would likely be similar to what they had in 2025. RosterResource currently projects them for a $139MM payroll in 2026. That’s already above where they finished in 2025, before even adding Thomas onto the ledger. Perhaps the next move will come on the trade market. There have been plenty of rumors suggesting the club may be looking to deal from its starting depth in order to get another bat.
Will Sammon of The Athletic first reported the Royals were signing Thomas. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com had the $5.25MM guarantee and $1MM in bonuses.
Photos courtesy of David Richard, Wendell Cruz, Imagn Images