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Newsstand

Lance Lynn To Retire

By Leo Morgenstern | April 1, 2025 at 10:30am CDT

Veteran starting pitcher Lance Lynn announced his retirement today on his and his wife’s podcast, Dymin in the Rough. In his own words, “I am officially retiring from baseball right here, right now… from Major League Baseball, I am done pitching.”

Lynn spent his final season with the Cardinals, pitching to a 3.84 ERA and 4.40 SIERA over 117 1/3 innings. The team went 15-8 in his starts. It was a fitting way to go out, pitching for the same team with whom he spent the first decade of his professional career. The Cardinals selected Lynn in the first round of the 2008 draft, and he made his big league debut just under three years later. He would quickly become a key contributor in the Cardinals’ bullpen, helping the team to a World Series championship in the fall.

Taking on a full-time starting job for the first time, Lynn was an All-Star in 2012. Overall, across six seasons in St. Louis from 2011-17, the right-hander threw close to 1,000 innings. He went 72-47 with a 3.38 ERA and 3.94 SIERA. He then spent most of his thirties bouncing between organizations, pitching for the Twins, Yankees, Rangers, White Sox, and Dodgers before returning to the Cardinals. Although Lynn had a couple of rough seasons in that time, he also had a few of his best. He earned Cy Young votes each year from 2019-21, finishing fifth, sixth, and third, respectively. He was also an All-Star in 2021, when he pitched to a career-best 2.69 ERA. All told, Lynn threw just over 2,000 MLB innings and collected just over 2,000 strikeouts. He pitched to a 3.74 ERA and won 143 games.

Some might have worried that Lynn was nearing the end in 2023, when he pitched to a bloated 5.73 ERA between the White Sox and Dodgers. It was only the second time in his career that he posted an ERA above 4.00. That being said, he still made 32 starts that year, and his respectable 4.33 SIERA was an encouraging sign. The Cardinals clearly had faith in Lynn, signing him to a one-year, $11MM guarantee with a club option for 2025, and he proved them right. While right knee inflammation limited him to 23 starts, he looked like a perfectly solid back-end starter in those games. Aside from one blowup outing in July (2 2/3 IP, 11 R), he gave St. Louis a chance to win each time he took the mound. However, the Cardinals declined his $12MM team option for 2025.

While Lynn did have some suitors over the winter, the Cubs were one team known to have interest, he says, “The money didn’t work out.” He adds that he wasn’t particularly interested in the possibility of signing with a team mid-season. In other words, prolonging his career was not his top priority. To that point, he might have also had a chance to prolong his career by transitioning into a reliever – an option he seemed at least somewhat interested in when he discussed the topic with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic in January. Yet, his comments suggest he is quite happy with the way he ultimately went out.

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Newsstand Lance Lynn

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Pirates To Select Thomas Harrington

By Nick Deeds | April 1, 2025 at 7:08am CDT

The Pirates are poised to promote right-hander Thomas Harrington to the majors for today’s start against the Rays in Tampa, according to a report from Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Harrington is not yet on the 40-man roster, so the club will need to make a corresponding move to open up a spot for Harrington before he can officially be selected.

Harrington, 23, was a first-round pick by the Pirates in the 2022 draft. He was the 36th selection in the draft, the Pirates’ second pick after infielder Termarr Johnson went number four overall. After he posted an impressive 2.53 ERA and 30% strikeout rate in 15 starts for Campbell during his draft year, the Pirates held off on putting Harrington in pro games until 2023. He more or less picked up right where he left off despite the layoff with a 2.77 ERA and 26.7% strikeout rate in eight starts at the Single-A level. That got him a quick promotion to High-A, where he faced a bit more adversity but still managed a solid 3.87 ERA in 127 1/3 innings across 18 starts while punching out 28.2% of his opponents.

The right-hander built on that solid first season as a pro with a dominant one in 2024. Though a rotator cuff injury cost him some of his 2024 campaign, Harrington made the most of his opportunities when he was healthy enough to take the mound, with an incredible 2.24 ERA and a 27.4% strikeout rate in 68 1/3 innings of work at the Double-A level. That earned him a promotion to Triple-A, where his strikeout rate dropped to just 21.2% but he nonetheless managed to post a solid 3.33 ERA across eight starts. Harrington’s breakout performance last season and success at the highest level of the minors put him on the radar for a big league debut this year, and he’s now set to get that opportunity later today.

The righty’s strong performance in 2024 was also enough to make him a consensus top-100 prospect, rated as the #74 prospect in the sport by Baseball America and #79 by MLB Pipeline at the outset of the 2025 season. He’s since moved up a spot on both lists following the graduation of Nationals outfielder Dylan Crews yesterday. Harrington features a deep pitch mix headlined by a fastball that tops out at 95mph and an above-average slider, though he also features a cutter and curveball, both of which grade out as roughly average. The main selling point of Harrington’s overall package is pinpoint control, however; he walked just eight batters in 46 innings at Triple-A last year and has a tidy 6.1% walk rate across all levels of the minors.

When Jared Jones went on the injured list to open the season, Harrington was in the mix for the fifth starter job with the Pirates but ultimately lost out to right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski, a former first-round pick in his own right with a 2.91 ERA in 86 1/3 career innings at the big league level entering the 2025 season. With that being said, it still did not take long for Harrington’s call to the big leagues to occur. It’s unclear whether today’s appearance will strictly be a spot start for the youngster or a more significant opportunity, though it should be noted that Mlodzinski surrendered four runs on seven hits and two walks in 3 2/3 innings of work during his first start of the season last night.

That’s the sort of performance that could, at least in theory, open the door for Harrington to claim a rotation spot with a dominant outing. As a consensus top-100 prospect called up in the early days of the season, Harrington would be eligible to earn the Pirates a prospect promotion incentive draft pick if he sticks on the active roster for the rest of the 2025 campaign. Harrington would need to win the NL Rookie of the Year award or finish in the top three of NL Cy Young award (or MVP) voting during his pre-arbitration years in order to bring back a PPI pick for Pittsburgh.

Rotation depth is perhaps the biggest strength of the Pirates’ roster. An on-paper starting five of Paul Skenes, Jones, Mitch Keller, Andrew Heaney, and Bailey Falter is already one of the most solid rotations in the National League, and the presence of youngsters like Harrington, Mlodzinski, Braxton Ashcraft, and star pitching prospect Bubba Chandler serve to lengthen out the club’s depth chart significantly. That rotation depth is robust enough that the Pirates felt comfortable trading a controllable young arm in Luis Ortiz even after a season where he posted a 3.32 ERA in 137 2/3 innings of work. That trade netted the Pirates a comparably controllable young hitter in Spencer Horwitz, who opened the season on the injured list due to wrist surgery but figures to settle in as the club’s everyday first baseman once healthy.

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Newsstand Pittsburgh Pirates Top Prospect Promotions Transactions Thomas Harrington

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Jurickson Profar Receives 80-Game PED Suspension

By Darragh McDonald | March 31, 2025 at 11:58pm CDT

Major League Baseball has announced that Braves outfielder Jurickson Profar has been suspended for 80 games after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug. Reporter Mike Rodriguez first relayed that Profar was to get a suspension due to a positive test. Jeff Passan of ESPN confirmed that it would be a PED suspension. Profar will be able to return during the season but won’t be eligible for the playoffs this year, as is true for all players in the year they serve a PED suspension.

MLB announced the suspension with the following statement: “The Office of the Commissioner of Baseball announced today that Atlanta Braves outfielder Jurickson Profar has received an 80-game suspension without pay after testing positive for Chorionic Gonadotrophin (hCG), a performance enhancing substance, in violation of Major League Baseball’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program. The suspension of Profar is effective immediately.”

The team also released a statement: “We were surprised and extremely disappointed to learn that Jurickson Profar tested positive for a performance-enhancing substance in violation of Major League Baseball’s Joint Prevention and Treatment Program. We fully support the Program and are hopeful that Jurickson will learn from this experience.”

Profar himself also released a statement through the MLBPA: “Braves fans, Today is the most difficult day of my baseball career. I am devastated to announce that I have been suspended for 80 games by Major League Baseball and the Commissioner’s office, for testing positive for a banned substance this offseason. This is especially painful for me because anyone who knows me and has seen me play knows I am deeply passionate about the game. There is nothing I love more than competing with my teammates and being a fan favorite. I want to apologize to the entire Braves organization, my teammates, and the fans. It is because of my deep love and respect for this game that I would never knowingly do anything to cheat it. I have been tested my entire career, including eight times last season alone, and have never tested positive. I would never willingly take a banned substance, but I take full responsibility and accept MLB’s decision. I am devastated that I won’t be on the field with my teammates for the next 80 games. I look forward to competing again at the highest level this season upon my return.”

The news will immediately cast a new light on Profar’s breakout campaign in 2024. A former top prospect, his big league career had been fairly inconsistent. His plate discipline had always been good, with above average strikeout and walk rates throughout most of his career, but generally with a lack of impact. At the end of the 2023 season, he had appeared in 961 big league games and was sitting on a .238/.322/.383 battling line. That production translated to a 92 wRC+, indicating he had been 8% worse than league average overall.

His stock had fallen far enough that he settled for a $1MM deal with the Padres going into 2024, barely above last year’s $740K league minimum salary. He went on to have the best season of his career at the age of 31. He hit 24 home runs for the Friars while drawing walks at an 11.4% clip and striking out just 15.1% of the time. His .280/.380 /.459 batting line translated to a 139 wRC+, easily the best of his career. Relative to 2023, his average exit velocity jumped from 86.5 miles per hour to 91.1. His hard hit rate went from 31.8% to 44.4%. In general, just about everything on his Statcast page got redder.

That made him a much hotter commodity this past offseason. He got interest from clubs like the Mets, Royals, Blue Jays and Astros before signing a three-year, $42MM deal with Atlanta in January. This news will naturally lead the baseball world to re-evaluate that breakout season.

Presumably, Atlanta had no idea about Profar’s test when they signed him or they wouldn’t have done the deal. Still, it will be a massive headache for them and looks like a big waste of resources. The club took a very measured approach this winter, seemingly working under specific financial restraints. They flipped Jorge Soler and the remainder of his contract to the Angels as soon as the offseason began. They later turned down a reasonable club option on Travis d’Arnaud. They renegotiated the contracts of Reynaldo López and Aaron Bummer, in both cases kicking a bit of money from 2025 to 2026.

In hindsight, it seems the club was trying to get the payroll down to a specific level and get themselves under the competitive balance tax. Per RosterResource, their CBT number is currently around $234MM. That’s about $7MM shy of this year’s $241MM base threshold, leaving them a bit of wiggle room to make in-season moves and reset their tax status this year. Assuming they indeed follow through on that, they could go into 2026 as “first-time” payors, after paying the tax in 2023 and 2024.

Around the frugal moves, Profar was their one big splash. They didn’t give out another deal worth more than $1.5MM. The outfield was an obvious target area. Last year’s acquisition of Jarred Kelenic didn’t work out, as he hit .231/.286/.393 in his first season in Atlanta. Ronald Acuña Jr. tore his left ACL in May and missed the remainder of the season. They made midseason acquisitions of Soler and Ramón Laureano but both were dispatched this winter for financial reasons. Soler was flipped to the Angels for Griffin Canning, with Canning later non-tendered. Laureano, who was projected for a $6.1MM salary, was himself non-tendered.

Considering all of that, it’s obviously a less than ideal development. The club tried to walk a fine line all winter, pinching pennies while hopefully keeping themselves in position to compete in 2025. Amid several subtractions, Profar was their most aggressive addition. Now he’s going to be out of action for a long while and it’s anyone’s guess what form he will be in when he comes back. He won’t be eligible for postseason play this year regardless.

He won’t be paid while serving his suspension, saving the club a bit of money, but they have few options for redirecting those funds now that the season has started. The team will now have to improvise a way to proceed. Harris is still a strong option in center but the corner options aren’t incredibly inspiring. Kelenic figures to get plenty of playing time, though as mentioned, he struggled last year and has a .154/.154/.385 line so far this year. Bryan De La Cruz and Eli White are also on the active roster. Stuart Fairchild was claimed off waivers today and will join the club shortly. Carlos Rodriguez is on the 40-man but on optional assignment.

In time, that picture should improve. Alex Verdugo was signed just over a week ago. He agreed to be optioned for now so that he could ramp up after missing spring training and should join the club in the coming weeks. Acuña could potentially be reinstated off the injured list in May. Profar will eventually return from this suspension but won’t be postseason eligible. Players on other clubs could become available as the trade deadline nears.

Nonetheless, it’s a gut check for a club that is already reeling a bit. They lost their first four games, getting swept by Profar’s old club in San Diego. There’s still a long season ahead, but they were set for a tough battle in a packed NL East. As mentioned, they tried to walk a tightrope this winter by cutting spending but still competing. Profar was the jewel of that offseason but the shine has come off real fast.

Photo courtesy of Mike Lang, Imagn Images.

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Atlanta Braves Newsstand Jurickson Profar

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Colton Cowser Out At Least Six To Eight Weeks With Broken Thumb

By Steve Adams | March 31, 2025 at 10:34am CDT

10:34am: Manager Brandon Hyde told the O’s beat this morning that Cowser will miss six to eight weeks at minimum (via Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner).

9:00am: The Orioles announced Monday that outfielder Colton Cowser has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a fractured left thumb. A timetable for his return was not specified. Cowser suffered the injury last night while sliding into first base on a close play; he was ruled out (video link). Fellow outfielder Dylan Carlson has been recalled from Triple-A Norfolk in Cowser’s place.

It’s a sour start to the season for Cowser, last year’s runner-up in American League Rookie of the Year voting. He’s posted just a .125/.222/.313 slash through his first 18 plate appearances and will now be looking at an absence of some note while his hand mends.

Cowser enjoyed a monster spring, tallying 52 plate appearances with a .364/.462/.568 batting line, two homers and three doubles. The former No. 5 overall pick out of Sam Houston hit .242/.321/.447 with 24 homers, 24 doubles, three triples, nine steals, a 9.3% walk rate, a 30.7% strikeout rate and plus defense across all three outfield spots last year.

In Cowser’s place, the O’s will turn to Carlson, whom they signed over the winter on a one-year, $975K deal. Like Cowser, Carlson is a former top pick (No. 33 overall by the Cardinals in 2016) and top  prospect. Things never fully panned out for the switch-hitter in St. Louis, however. Carlson looked on the cusp of a breakout in 2021 when he slashed .266/.343/.437 with 18 homers as a 22-year-old, but he followed that with a .225/.309/.341 output over the next three seasons. The Cards shipped him to the Rays in exchange for reliever Shawn Armstrong at last year’s trade deadline. Armstrong was designated for assignment by St. Louis in August. Carlson was non-tendered by Tampa Bay over the winter.

Still only 26 years old, Carlson can handle all three outfield spots. His status as a switch-hitter with versatility on the defensive side of things will give the O’s plenty of flexibility when writing out the lineup or making in-game substitutions. Carlson is a much, much better hitter from the right side of the plate (.285/.361/.431) than from the left side (.219/.300/.355), which could set the stage for a some form of platoon with Heston Kjerstad in left field. The O’s also have righty-swinging Ramon Laureano in the mix for outfield time, though either Carlson or Laureano could also see some DH time against lefties over Ryan O’Hearn.

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Baltimore Orioles Newsstand Colton Cowser Dylan Carlson

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Red Sox, Kristian Campbell In “Deep Talks” On Extension

By Nick Deeds | March 29, 2025 at 9:20pm CDT

The Red Sox and star prospect Kristian Campbell are in “deep talks” regarding a potential contract extension, according to a report from Chris Cotillo of MassLive. The terms of the potential deal between the sides are not yet clear. For his part, Campbell told reporters (including WEEI’s Rob Bradford) after this evening’s game that his camp is talking to the Red Sox about an extension but would not say whether or not he’d consider a deal to be “close” or not. While Campbell wouldn’t tip his hand about the negotiations, Cotillo reports that one source described the deal as “close” and adds that a source with the Red Sox described the team as “hopeful” that a deal would come together.

Campbell, 22, was Boston’s fourth-round pick in the 2023 draft. Despite his later-round draft status, he hit quite well in 22 games down the stretch in his draft year before exploding onto the prospect map last year. After starting the season at the High-A level, Campbell blitzed through the minor leagues to reach Triple-A by the end of the season, slashing a sensational .330/.439/.558 along the way with 20 homers, 32 doubles, and 24 steals in 115 games along the way while splitting time between shortstop, second base, and the outfield. Campbell’s incredible performance made him a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport over the course of a single season, as he had not cracked a single major top-100 list prior to the 2024 campaign.

After making to to Triple-A before the end of the year last season and doing well for himself there (.286/.412/.486 in 85 PAs), Campbell was bandied about throughout the winter as a potential option for the club’s Opening Day second base job. Those plans appeared likely to be scuttled when the club signed Alex Bregman to round out their infield last month, which led many to assume he would fill the void at the keystone with Rafael Devers entrenched at third base. The club’s desire to give Campbell a path to playing time in the majors changed things, however, and the Red Sox positioned Bregman as their Opening Day third baseman instead. That pushed Devers into a DH role and opened up second for a competition between incumbent options David Hamilton and Vaughn Grissom as well as prospects Campbell and Marcelo Mayer.

Hamilton’s solid 2024 and strong spring, Mayer’s blistering performance during camp, and struggles from Campbell himself during Spring Training all made the camp battle for the second base so competitive that just under 31% of respondents to an MLBTR poll last week selected Campbell as the club’s Opening Day second baseman. He departed camp with the keys to the position nonetheless after being viewed as the favorite for much of the spring. The Red Sox are, of course, only three games into the regular season at this point. Even so, rostering Campbell has looked like a wise decision so far as he’s collected five hits in ten at-bats with a double, a home run, and two walks while playing adequate defense both at second base and in left field.

With a player who could be a burgeoning star on their hands, the Red Sox appear to be wasting no time in attempting to lock him up beyond his standard six years of club control, which figure to keep him in town through the end of the 2030 season as things stand. The club reportedly had interest in exploring deals with their top prospects—Campbell, Mayer, and outfielder Roman Anthony— as far back as January. While the club appeared focused primarily on attempting to lock up ace southpaw Garrett Crochet during Spring Training, a pursuit they ultimately fell short in, the Red Sox demonstrated their comfort with continuing negotiations into the season just last year when they extended utility man Ceddanne Rafaela on an eight-year, $50MM deal.

It was part of an organizational shift towards locking up young talent earlier in their careers last spring, which also saw the club sign right-hander Brayan Bello to a six-year, $55MM extension. Campbell is generally viewed as being on another level compared to those two, however, even as Rafaela and Bello were impressive prospects in their own rights. It’s possible that prospect pedigree and offensive upside could translate to a healthier guarantee, with the eight-year, $82MM deal Jackson Chourio signed with the Brewers prior to the 2024 campaign serving as another potentially relevant point of comparison.

Whatever the financial cost ends up being, it will likely pale in comparison to what Campbell would make on the open market if he were to hit free agency ahead of his age-29 season after fulfilling his potential. That potential for an enormous discount would be offset by the considerable risk assumed by the Red Sox in the event of injury or under-performance on the part of Campbell. Jon Singleton and Scott Kingery are among the handful of examples of players who signed extensions at the outset of their MLB careers who went on to fizzle out in the majors, though the Red Sox surely have plenty of confidence in Campbell to avoid the same fate.

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Boston Red Sox Newsstand Kristian Campbell

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Diamondbacks Extend Brandon Pfaadt

By Darragh McDonald | March 28, 2025 at 11:56pm CDT

The Diamondbacks announced that they have agreed to a five-year contract extension with right-hander Brandon Pfaadt. It runs from 2026 through 2030 with a club option for 2031 and a mutual option for 2032. Reportedly, he is guaranteed $45MM with the following breakdown: $2MM signing bonus, a $3MM salary in 2026 followed by subsequent salaries of $5MM, $8MM, $11MM and $15MM. Then there’s a $21MM figure on the ’31 club option and a $25MM mutual option in 2032, with each of those options having a $1MM buyout.

He will reportedly have a five-team no-trade from 2030 to 2032. Pfaadt was previously slated for free agency after 2029, so this buys out at least one free agent year and the club option extends the club’s window of control by another season. The deal also reportedly includes a five-team no-trade list covering the 2030-32 seasons. Pfaadt is represented by Frontline.

Pfaadt, 26, was a fifth-round selection of the Diamondbacks in 2020. He quickly raised his stock with some strong minor league numbers. In 2021, he tossed 131 2/3 innings over 22 starts, spread across Single-A, High-A and Double-A. He had a combined 3.21 earned run average, 30.2% strikeout rate and 5.3% walk rate. In 2022, it was 167 innings split between Double-A and Triple-A with a 3.83 ERA, 31.6% strikeout rate and 4.8% walk rate.

Going into 2023, he was considered one of the top prospects in baseball. He made his major league debut that year with 96 innings over 18 starts and one relief appearance. The 5.72 ERA doesn’t look amazing at first glance but Pfaadt’s 22.3% strikeout rate was around league average with a strong 6.2% walk rate. He held a spot in the rotation through the playoffs, making five postseason starts with a 3.27 ERA as the Diamondbacks took the National League pennant.

2024 was his first full season in the majors and he again performed better than his ERA would tell you. He allowed 4.71 earned run per nine over his 32 starts and 181 2/3 innings. His 24.3% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate were both strong numbers.

At this point, Pfaadt has a 5.06 ERA in 277 2/3 innings but that doesn’t tell the whole story. As mentioned, his strikeout and walk rates have been good. His .315 batting average on balls in play and 66.4% strand rate are both on the unlucky side. His 4.15 FIP and 3.86 SIERA point to him being roughly one run better than his ERA.

The Diamondbacks are presumably putting more stock in those under-the-hood numbers in committing to Pfaadt today. He was previously set to hit the open market after his age-30 season but they have instead locked him up through his age-31 season with a club option for his age-32 campaign as well.

Looking at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, there have been a few recent extensions for pitchers in their pre-arb years. The top of the list has guys like Spencer Strider at $75MM, Brayan Bello at $55MM and Hunter Greene at $53MM. Those guys were all younger than Pfaadt is now and Greene also had the hype of being a second overall pick and high-profile prospect. Strider was just wrapping up a 2022 season with an insane 38.3% strikeout rate.

Pfaadt’s $45MM deal comes in just a hair under Tanner Bibee’s recent $47.2MM deal. That’s understandable since Bibee has a 3.25 ERA, 25.3% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate in 315 2/3 innings. Those numbers all put him a bit ahead of Pfaadt. He’s also a year closer to free agency, which gives him a bit of extra earning power.

For Pfaadt, he is kicking his free agency down the road, which will presumably lead to less future earning power. However, unlike some top prospects, he hasn’t been sitting on a multi-million-dollar bonus. He only got $100K when he signed and wasn’t slated to qualify for arbitration until after the 2026 season. This deal allows him to lock up some life-changing money ahead of schedule and before his career gets derailed by an injury, an ever-present concern for a pitcher.

For the Diamondbacks, they have been aggressive in locking up their incumbent players. In the past six weeks, they have given notable extensions to shortstop Geraldo Perdomo, reliever Justin Martínez and now Pfaadt.

The current rotation in Arizona is overloaded but the long-term picture is more open. For the 2025 season, they have Zac Gallen, Corbin Burnes, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodríguez and Pfaadt in five spots. Ryne Nelson is working in long relief even though he’s talented enough to pitch in the rotation of many other clubs.

But Gallen and Kelly are both impending free agents. Burnes has an opt-out after 2026. Rodríguez is guaranteed through 2027. As the next few years play out, it’s possible that each of those guys eventually leaves Arizona. Pitchers within the system could possibly replace them, with Nelson, Drey Jameson, Yilber Díaz, Cristian Mena and some other arms already in house. As that plays out, the Snakes are surely hoping that Pfaadt can be a constant in their rotation as one group potentially makes way for another.

The club is currently running a franchise-record payroll but has some decent money coming off the books. In addition to the aforementioned pitchers, Jordan Montgomery’s deal expires after 2025. He’s making $22.5MM this year but won’t pitch at all due to Tommy John surgery. Eugenio Suárez is making $15MM this year and also slated for free agency. That will potentially create a hole at third base but it’s possible that prospect Jordan Lawlar could provide a cost-effective replacement. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is only guaranteed through 2026 and Ketel Marte 2027.

Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic first reported the $45MM guarantee. John Gambadoro of 98.7 FM in Phoenix relayed the option values. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the limited no-trade protection and then the annual salary breakdown. Gambadoro then relayed that the no-trade covered five teams.

Photos courtesy of Joe Rondone and Rob Schumacher, Imagn Images

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Arizona Diamondbacks Newsstand Transactions Brandon Pfaadt

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Blue Jays Make New Contract Offer To Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

By Darragh McDonald | March 27, 2025 at 10:05am CDT

The Blue Jays have made another contract offer to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., reports Buster Olney of ESPN. No specifics of the offer have been publicly reported but Olney says a gap remains between the two sides.

The will-they-won’t-they between the Jays and Guerrero has been playing out for years now, but with a special focus on the drama this winter. Guerrero is now slated for free agency after the 2025 season, which begins today for the Jays. It’s common for players to set Opening Day as a deadline in contract talks, to avoid distractions during the season. Guerrero initially went a step further and set a deadline of February 18, the opening of Spring Training.

That day came and went without a deal getting done, though Guerrero subsequently said he would keep the door open if the Jays wanted to come back to the table. Reportedly, Guerrero’s asking price was a deal of at least 14 years and worth $500MM. The Jays reportedly did make him an offer in February with a sticker price of $500MM, but with deferrals that would knock the net present value down to the $400-450MM range. Guerrero is said to be open to deferrals generally but would still like the NPV to get to that $500MM line.

In a sense, that $50-100MM gap is not large. For a deal of that length, that’s about $3.5MM to $7MM annually. In an annual baseball budget, that’s what clubs spend on a veteran reliever or a backup catcher. That would appear to be a bridgeable gap. That’s perhaps especially true when looking at the broader picture. Guerrero has been the face of the franchise for many years now. The Jays have tried to sign other marquee players like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Roki Sasaki but without success.

The regime of president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins has seemingly left a large segment of the fanbase discontent. There has been a lot of regular season success in recent years but the Jays have been swept in all of their most recent playoff appearances. Many things went wrong in 2024, which exacerbated the frustration.

Letting Guerrero walk for a relatively small financial gap would likely be unwelcome from a public relations perspective, whereas getting a deal done on Opening Day could theoretically provide a nice boost to fan morale.

The front office seems to view the situation as one that can be resolved. Shapiro recently expressed confidence that a deal would get done, either an extension or later in free agency. That was an unusual bit of candor, since front office types usually duck questions about ongoing negotiations. Atkins made somewhat similar comments yesterday, per Hazel Mae of Sportsnet and Keegan Matheson of MLB.com.

Presumably, this new offer from the Jays has moved closer to Guerrero’s asking price. Though as mentioned, no details have been publicly reported. A deal in this range would be fairly unprecedented, for the Jays or any other club.

As of a few months ago, no player had received a contract with an NPV at $500MM or higher. At the start of the 2024-25 offseason, the largest deal on record was Ohtani’s ten-year, $700MM pact with the Dodgers. Thanks to the heavy deferrals in that deal, Major League Baseball calculated the AAV as $46.06MM with the MLBPA at $43.78MM, meaning the NPV on the deal was roughly $437-460MM. Even those reduced numbers were all records, in terms of largest guarantee and largest AAV ever.

Each of those numbers is now a distant second, thanks to Soto’s deal. He got $765MM over 15 years with no deferrals, meaning his net present value shattered Ohtani’s. The AAV on that is $51MM, which also went notably beyond Ohtani’s deferral-adjusted AAV.

A hypothetical deal worth $500MM over 14 years would be a $35.7MM AAV. That would be well below Soto and Ohtani but still put Guerrero in the top 15 of all contracts by AAV, ahead of players like Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor and Mookie Betts. The total guarantee would be second all-time, when adjusting Ohtani’s down.

Guerrero hasn’t been quite as elite as Ohtani or Soto but still has a strong track record for a player his age. Many top prospects don’t reach the majors until their mid-20s but Guerrero just turned 26 earlier this month, which is a huge part of his earning power. He already has 819 games under his belt with 160 home runs, a .288/.363/.500 batting line and 137 wRC+. He was even better than that in both 2021 and 2024. Though he dipped a bit in the two seasons in between, he hit .323/.396/.544 for a 165 wRC+ last year. He’s not an especially strong defender at first but he has accomplished a lot with the bat already. If he and the Jays can’t work out a new deal, he will be one of the top free agents of next year’s class.

Photo courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images

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Newsstand Toronto Blue Jays Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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Cora: Devers Will Be Red Sox’ Primary Designated Hitter

By Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald | March 26, 2025 at 11:58pm CDT

Red Sox manager Alex Cora confirmed today in an appearance on WEEI radio what has looked increasingly likely as spring training has progressed: Rafael Devers will serve as the Red Sox’ primary designated hitter in 2025, while newly signed Alex Bregman will take over at the hot corner (link via WEEI’s Ken Laird). “Alex is going to play third,” said Cora. “Raffy’s going to DH. We all are in the winning business. He understands that.”

It’s not a shock given recent developments but still notable to get a firm declaration on what will be a surprising pivot for the club. Devers has been Boston’s third baseman for a long time and seemed likely to stay there well into the future. The club signed him to a massive extension ahead of the 2023 season, locking him up through 2033. His defense was never well regarded but it seemed that he would get a chance to stick at the hot corner for a while based on his status within the organization.

Even once Bregman was signed, it seemed possible that Devers would stay at third. Bregman’s reps had maintained throughout the winter that he was willing to move to second base as a way to keep his market as open as possible. The Sox came into 2025 with some notable middle infield prospects but didn’t have a clear everyday guy at second in 2024.

But as alluded to, the plans became more clear as time went on. Bregman was only playing third base in camp. Devers wasn’t playing many official spring games and was only serving as the DH when he was in there. It was suggested that perhaps this was due to some shoulder problems he dealt with last year but it has become abundantly clear that the club just wants him to DH this year. Prospect Kristian Campbell will crack the Opening Day roster and seemingly be the regular second baseman.

The move makes sense from a competitive standpoint. Devers has been credited with -62 Defensive Runs Saved and -29 Outs Above Average in his career. Bregman’s tallies in those categories are +27 DRS and +22 OAA.

That’s an obvious choice in a vacuum but it’s unclear if there will be intangible effects in terms of clubhouse morale. Devers was initially adamant that he wouldn’t be moving off third, saying that he was promised that he could be there for the long haul. That promise was made while Chaim Bloom was still the chief baseball officer but he was later replaced by Craig Breslow. The new regime seems uninterested in honoring the promise of the previous one.

There are other questions left to be answered as well. Bregman’s three-year deal comes with opt-outs after each season. If he departs after 2025, will Devers get a chance to retake the spot next year? What if Bregman suffers a significant injury during the 2025 season?

Then there’s also the Masataka Yoshida factor. He made his major league debut in 2023 with a solid .289/.338/.445 line and 110 wRC+, but with bad defensive metrics in the outfield. Last year, he logged just a single inning in the field, limited to DH duty. His offense was similar to the year before, with a .280/.349/.415 line and 115 wRC+, but he apparently wasn’t thrilled with the arrangement.

He required shoulder surgery in October and is going to start the season on the injured list. He was healthy enough to hit during the spring but still needs to fully ramp up his throwing abilities in the wake of that surgery. With Devers in the DH spot, he will have to jog out onto the grass into order to get into the lineup. The Sox project to have Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu in three outfield spots, with Rob Refsnyder on the bench. Prospect Roman Anthony will also be pushing for a major league debut soon.

If everyone’s healthy, it will be tough for Yoshida to work his way in there. He still has three years and $54MM left on his deal. Given his modest production thus far, no other club will want to take all of that on. Rebuilding trade value will be tough if he can’t get in there fore regular playing time. Moving to first base isn’t an option for Devers or Yoshida with Triston Casas in that spot and under club control through 2028.

It’s a complicated puzzle and one that will probably continue to be talked about throughout the year. Cora’s declaration today gives confirmation to what was already obvious. The unanswered questions remain.

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Boston Red Sox Newsstand Alex Bregman Masataka Yoshida Rafael Devers

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Mariners Sign Cal Raleigh To Six-Year Extension

By Darragh McDonald | March 26, 2025 at 7:20pm CDT

The Mariners announced that they’ve signed catcher Cal Raleigh to a six-year extension that starts this year. It’s reportedly a $105MM guarantee for the Excel Sports Management client. He had previously agreed to a $5.6MM salary in 2025 to avoid arbitration, so this deal adds five years and $99.4MM in terms of new money. He was slated to hit free agency after 2027, so this deal buys out three free agent seasons and there’s also a vesting option for 2031. Raleigh gets full no-trade protection.

The specific breakdown is a $10MM signing bonus and $1MM salary in 2025, followed by salaries of $11MM and $12MM in 2026 and 2027. He will then make $23MM salaries for three straight years. For 2031, there is a vesting player option valued at $20MM with a $2MM buyout. The option would vest if Raleigh appears in 100 games behind the plate in at least four of the six guaranteed seasons.

Raleigh, now 28, was a third-round pick of the M’s in the 2018 draft. As a prospect, he drew attention as a switch-hitting catcher with notable power. His 2021 debut wasn’t great but he has since established himself as one of the best two-way catchers in the game.

Over the past three seasons, Raleigh has stepped to the plate 1,612 times. His 28.3% strikeout rate in that time is a bit on the high side, but he’s also drawn walks at a 10% clip and hit 91 home runs. The end result is a .222/.303/.457 line, which translates to a 117 wRC+. That indicates he’s been 17% better than the league average hitter, but that’s even more impressive for a catcher, since they are usually about 10% below average.

The switch-hitter hasn’t been totally balanced in his production. 73 of his 93 career homers have come against righties and he has a .223/.304/.454 line when hitting from the left side. When he turns around to bat right-handed against southpaws, his line drops to .202/.271/.410, though the 94 wRC+ on that latter line is still passable.

Defensively, he’s received strong marks for all aspects but especially his framing. FanGraphs gave him the third-best framing mark last year, behind only Patrick Bailey and Jake Rogers. Statcast had him second only to Bailey.

The overall package is quite strong. FanGraphs has credited him with between 4.2 and 5.3 wins above replacement in each of the past three seasons. That means he was worth a total 13.9 fWAR over the 2022-24 period. That was tops among all catchers in the league and in the top 20 of all position players. It’s difficult to quantify a catcher’s contributions to a pitching staff but Seattle has had strong results from the mound during Raleigh’s time as well.

He just crossed the three-year service line in 2024, qualifying him for arbitration for the first time. As mentioned, he and the club settled at $5.6MM for this year. He would have been slated for two more arbitration passes before hitting free agency after 2027, his age-30 season.

Had he stayed healthy and productive between now and then, he could have perhaps been in line for a strong trip to free agency. However, the earning power of catchers at that age isn’t tremendous, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.

While shooting into nine-figure territory and beyond is common for other players, the wear-and-tear of the catching positions make it rare for that group. J.T. Realmuto is actually the only free agent catcher to get to nine figures. He and the Phillies agreed to a five-year, $115.5MM deal going into 2021. Only four other free agent catchers have gone beyond $53MM. Willson Contreras got $87.5MM from the Cardinals, Brian McCann $85MM from the Yankees, Russell Martin $82MM from the Blue Jays and Yasmani Grandal $73MM from the White Sox.

Extensions have been the path for the top deals for catchers. Joe Mauer and Buster Posey are tops on that leaderboard, though those deals are both over a decade old. More recently, some rough comps for Raleigh can be found in Will Smith and Sean Murphy. Smith’s $131.5MM guarantee is larger than Raleigh’s, though he was one year closer to free agency, therefore giving him a bit more earning power. The nine-year term is a bit eye-popping but that was largely viewed as a way to lower the average annual value for tax purposes.

Murphy was in the same three-to-four service window as Raleigh and got $73MM over six years plus a $15MM option. The two players had a broadly similar profile as strong two-way backstops. Raleigh’s deal shoots well beyond that one.

For the Mariners, they generally struggle to attract top free agents. That’s perhaps somewhat due to the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park but more generally about the club not having massive payrolls. Since Jerry Dipoto has been atop the baseball operations department, this is now the eighth contract the club has given out worth more than $24MM. Of those eight, only two of those were free agent deals. They went to Robbie Ray and Yusei Kikuchi, both pitchers.

The six extensions have gone to Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez, Luis Castillo, Jean Segura, J.P. Crawford and Marco Gonzales. There are couple of pitchers in there but four of the six have gone to position players, showing that to be a preferred way of spending money for the club, particularly the lineup.

Perhaps not coincidentally, Raleigh’s salary jumps up at a time when the club should have some extra payroll capacity down the line. He will almost double his salary from 2027 to 2028, going from $12MM to $23MM. By that time, Castillo’s deal will be done the guaranteed portion, though there is a vesting option for 2028. Castillo would need to throw 180 innings in 2027 and be verified as healthy by an independent surgeon. Even if Castillo is still around in ’28, the deals for Mitch Haniger, Mitch Garver, Crawford, Polanco and Víctor Robles will all finish between now and then.

It’s surely an exciting day for Raleigh, the Mariners and their fans. “Big Dumper” has become one of the better backstops in the league and a fan favorite. He’ll now be slated to stick around for six or maybe even seven more years, instead of just three. He’ll be 33 years old in the final guaranteed year of the deal and 34 in 2031, the vesting option year. Barring a future trade, he will eventually spend the majority or perhaps his entire career in Seattle.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the two sides had agreed to six-year, $105MM deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic relayed the no-trade clause. Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times first reported on the vesting option that could push the total to $123MM. Passan reported the specific salary breakdown. Rosenthal reported the vesting condition.

Photos courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images.

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Newsstand Seattle Mariners Transactions Cal Raleigh

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Jordan Montgomery To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

By Darragh McDonald | March 25, 2025 at 11:58pm CDT

Diamondbacks left-hander Jordan Montgomery says he will be having Tommy John surgery next week, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. He will therefore miss the 2025 season and likely a notable chunk of 2026 as well.

The out-of-nowhere news is a brutal development for the lefty. The past year-plus have already been a challenging time for him and now he’s slated for another year-plus of rehab before he can improve his trajectory.

The southpaw already had Tommy John surgery once, in June of 2018. He missed the latter half of that season and most of 2019. He then had a subpar showing in 2020. He stabilized things for a three-year stretch after that. From 2021 to 2023, he made 94 starts and logged 524 1/3 innings. He had a 3.48 earned run average, 22.5% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 44.5% ground ball rate. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 10.3 wins above replacement for that span. He was a key part of the 2023 Rangers team that won the World Series, tossing 31 innings that postseason with a 2.90 ERA.

He hit free agency after getting that ring and seemed poised for a strong nine-figure contract, but that didn’t come to pass. The 2023-24 offseason was rough for most free agent, with the so-called “Boras Four” becoming the poster children for the chilly winter. Scott Boras clients Montgomery, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger all lingered unsigned into the spring. Each eventually signed a short-term deal that fell well below initial expectations.

In Montgomery’s case, he agreed with the Diamondbacks late in March. It was a one-year, $25MM guarantee, though with an easy path to extra earning power. He could vest a $20MM player option with just ten starts and bump the value to $22.5MM with 18 starts and $25MM with 23 starts.

After missing the start of the season due to his late signing, he never got on track and eventually got bumped to the bullpen. He made 21 starts and four relief appearances, finishing the year with a 6.23 ERA in 117 innings.The club finished 89-73, tied with the Mets and Braves, but those two clubs took the final Wild Card spots via tiebreakers.

In early October, fresh off the sting of just barely missing the playoffs, club owner Ken Kendrick publicly expressed frustration with the Montgomery signing. “Looking back, in hindsight, a horrible decision to have invested that money in a guy that performed as poorly as he did,” Kendrick said. “It’s our biggest mistake this season from a talent standpoint. And I’m the perpetrator of that.” While he pointed the finger at himself for suggesting the front office pursue him, it was nonetheless surprising to see an owner publicly roast one of his own players in such a manner.

Despite that apparent tension, Montgomery wasn’t going to walk away from $22.5MM after the season he had. He exercised his player option for the 2025 campaign. That led to a full winter of trade speculation. The Diamondbacks didn’t need him in the rotation, especially after Arizona native Corbin Burnes agreed to sign there. That gave them a projected starting group of Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodríguez, Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson.

But Montgomery stayed with Arizona throughout the offseason. Just in the past week, there were some reports of ongoing trade talks. The lefty just pitched a spring game on March 19, less than a week ago. Given the injuries to other pitchers around the league, there seemed to be at least some chance to a club swinging a deal for Montgomery just before Opening Day. That’s obviously off the table now.

For Montgomery, he was surely hoping to engineer a bounceback season in 2025 before returning to the open market. His last foray into free agency didn’t go as planned, enough that he changed his representation and later accused Boras of having “butchered” his case. But he’ll instead go into the 2025-26 offseason still recovering from this surgery. At that point, he’ll likely be looking for a one-year “prove it” deal or perhaps a backloaded two-year pact covering the 2026-27 seasons. He’ll turn 33 years old this December.

For the Diamondbacks, they were also hoping for Montgomery to get things back on track, if only for the cost savings. Per recent reporting, they asked at least one club to take on $13MM of the $22.5MM still owed to the lefty. That was a tall ask but perhaps a strong early-season performance from the lefty could have increased his appeal around the league. Now the club will have no chance of moving any of that money.

The one silver lining is that this clarifies some roster things. Montgomery will be put on the 60-day injured list, giving them an extra 40-man spot to work with. It also crystallizes their rotation plans a bit, since they can just wipe Montgomery off the board. Even without him, they still have six guys for five rotation spots, which perhaps leaves Nelson to work a long relief role until a spot opens up for him.

Photo courtesy of Rob Schumacher, Imagn Images.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Newsstand Jordan Montgomery

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