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Dodgers Re-Sign Clayton Kershaw

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Feb. 13: The Dodgers made it official today, announcing that they have signed Kershaw. Right-hander River Ryan, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, was transferred to the 60-day IL in a corresponding move.

Kershaw is guaranteed $7.5MM on a one-year deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. He’ll unlock a $1MM bonus for making his 13th, 14th, 15th and 16th starts of the season. The deal also contains active roster bonuses; he’ll add an additional $2.5MM for 30 days on the active roster, $1MM for 60 days and $1MM for 90 days.

In all, that $7.5MM base can more than double to $16MM so long as Kershaw starts at least 16 games and stays healthy for about half the season.

Feb. 11: The Dodgers and left-hander Clayton Kershaw have agreed to terms on a new deal, reports Alden González of ESPN. It was previously relayed by Dylan Hernández of the Los Angeles Times that the lefty is in camp with the club. The deal isn’t official yet because the Excel Sports Management client still has to undergo a physical. The details of the new agreement aren’t yet publicly known. The Dodgers will need to open a 40-man spot but have several candidates to be moved to the 60-day injured list.

The move doesn’t come as a surprise at all. The future Hall-of-Famer has spent his entire career with the Dodgers to this point. He has gone into free agency multiple times and always re-signed. There has occasionally been some thought that he would like to join the Rangers, since he’s from the Dallas area, but that’s never come to fruition. On the heels of the Dodgers winning the most recent World Series, he declared himself a “Dodger for life.”

Kershaw, 37 in March, did turn down a $10MM player option for the 2025 season. Still, that seemed to be more of a formality, based on the strong relationship between him and the franchise. Even though he walked away from that money, the industry expectation has been that the two sides would reunite on some kind of new deal. As recently has a few weeks ago, it was reported that the two sides were interested in a reunion.

His current health situation is unknown. In early November, when he made the “Dodger for life” comment, Kershaw also relayed some details of upcoming surgeries. He told reporters at that time that he was to have work done on both his left toe and his left knee. He had dealt with bone spurs in his big toe during the season and also revealed after the campaign that he had a torn meniscus and a ruptured plantar plate that needed to be addressed.

It’s possible that his new deal will come with various incentives based on his output, as was the case the last time he re-signed with the Dodgers. He had surgery going into last winter and wasn’t expected to come back until midway through the 2024 schedule. He signed a deal with a modest $10MM guarantee over 2024 and 2025, with the latter year being a player option. Based on his 2024 appearances, he could earn an extra $7.5MM in 2024, as well as potentially bumping the $5MM option as high as $20MM. There were also incentives based on his 2025 appearances that could have allowed him to earn as much as $25MM on the year.

Kershaw only ended up throwing 30 innings over seven starts last year, allowing 4.50 earned runs per nine. He started the season on the IL while still recovering from that shoulder surgery, getting reinstated in late July. But he was back on the IL by the end of August due to his toe issues and finished the season there. That wasn’t a huge showing but it was enough to get the base of his player option up to $10MM. Though he went back under the knife for his lower body injuries, he still felt comfortable enough turning that down, though he and the club will surely figure out some new arrangement that works for both.

Though it’s not a surprise to see Kershaw back with the club, there’s still some mystery about what’s next. As mentioned, it’s unclear if he’s fully healthy now or if he’s still working his way back from his most recent procedure.

On paper, the Dodgers have a robust collection of rotation options. They currently have Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki and Tyler Glasnow taking up four spots. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May should be in the mix as well. Shohei Ohtani isn’t expected to be ready by Opening Day but could be back on the hill in May.

The club seems likely to run a six-man rotation. That’s partially due to Sasaki making the move from Japan, where starting pitchers only throw once a week. On top of that, basically everyone else in their pile of starters has workload concerns. Snell only got to 104 innings last year and has only twice gone beyond 130. Yamamoto spent a decent chunk of 2024 on the IL and only got to 90 frames. Glasnow got to 134, which was a career high for him. May, Gonsolin and Ohtani were recovering from respective surgeries, with no one of that trio pitching last year.

Throw Kershaw into the mix and its eight starters for six spots, before even mentioning pitchers like Bobby Miller, Landon Knack, Nick Frasso, Justin Wrobleski and Ben Casparius, who all have options and are likely to be in the minors as depth.

Given all the health question marks throughout the group, it’s unlikely to expect everyone to be healthy for the entire season, but there may be times where players get squeezed. Moving to the bullpen isn’t easy either, as the club is a bit squeezed there as well. With a six-man rotation, the club can only have seven relievers, given the 13-pitcher roster limit. Ohtani counts as a two-way player and will eventually allow them to have 14 pitchers, but he won’t be pitching to start the year.

The bullpen chart currently includes Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech, Anthony Banda and Alex Vesia. No one in that group can be optioned except for Vesia, who had a 1.76 ERA last year. The bullpen is tight enough that Ryan Brasier recently got designated for assignment and flipped to the Cubs.

Time will tell how the Dodgers balance the juggling act, though the pressure on the 40-man roster is about to ease. Now that they have opened camp, they are allowed to transfer players to the 60-day injured list. Each of Emmet Sheehan, Brusdar Graterol, Kyle Hurt and River Ryan are likely bound for the IL soon, with each recovering from a significant surgery. The Dodgers will need a roster spot for Kershaw once this becomes official, but that will still leave them with three roster spots to play with.

Financially, RosterResource has the Dodgers at a $383MM payroll and $386MM competitive balance tax figure. Those are both franchise records and tops in the league by wide margins, but the club seems to have few limits right now. They have international star power from Ohtani and various other players on the roster, with a decade-plus run of postseason appearances, in addition to being reigning world champions. The cash flow situation seems to be incredibly healthy, with the ownership group willing to pump a lot of that money back into the roster.

Mets Re-Sign Pete Alonso

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February 12: The Mets officially announced their deal with Alonso today.

February 5: The stalemate between Pete Alonso and the Mets is over. New York is reportedly in agreement on a two-year, $54MM deal with the star first baseman. Alonso, a client of the Boras Corporation, can opt out after the upcoming season. He receives a $10MM signing bonus and a $20MM salary for 2025. He’ll essentially have a $24MM player option for the ’26 campaign. The deal comes with a $27MM average annual value for luxury tax purposes. Alonso chose the two-year deal over a separate offer from the Mets that would have guaranteed $71MM over three seasons.

Alonso, who turned 30 in December, returns to Queens for a seventh season. He has been one of the faces of the franchise since his electrifying debut. Alonso led the majors with 53 home runs en route to a runaway Rookie of the Year win in 2019. That still stands as the all-time rookie home run record. He connected on 16 longballs in the shortened follow-up season and has topped 30 homers in each of the last four years.

That’s a testament not only to his massive power but to his exceptional availability. Alonso has played at least 152 games in each of his five full seasons. He appeared in all 162 contests last year. His only career injured list stint was a minimal stay in 2023 related to a bone bruise in his left wrist. Over the last six seasons, only Marcus Semien has played in more games. Semien and Freddie Freeman are the only hitters with more plate appearances.

On a rate basis, Alonso’s production has dropped in consecutive seasons. He carried a .261/.349/.535 batting line through his first four seasons. Alonso hit another 46 homers in 2023, though he did so with career-low marks in batting average (.217) and on-base percentage (.318). His average and OBP rebounded slightly last season, but his power ticked down. Alonso hit .240 with a .329 OBP and a career-low .459 slugging percentage across 695 plate appearances. His 34 homers and 88 runs batted in were each personal worsts over a full schedule.

It was a pedestrian year rather than a bad one. There’s clear value in a player who hits 34 home runs in a relative down season. Still, it was the second straight year in which Alonso’s offensive production was below his early-career level. He’s a .229/.324/.480 hitter since the start of the ’23 campaign. That checks in 21 percentage points better than league average, as measured by wRC+.

By that statistic, Alonso ranks ninth in overall offense among the 35 first basemen with at least 750 plate appearances over the past two seasons. He’s just behind Cody Bellinger and Josh Naylor and narrowly ahead of LaMonte Wade Jr., Luis Arraez and Christian Walker. Alonso’s durability and power gives him a higher offensive ceiling than the rest of that group. Nevertheless, his recent rate metrics have put him alongside those hitters and a clear step down from Freddie Freeman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bryce Harper at the top of the position.

Alonso’s on-field value lies in the bat and his durability. He doesn’t provide baserunning value. His defensive grades at first base are middling. Defensive Runs Saved put him at three runs below par last season and has given him a +2 mark for his career. Statcast had him six runs below average in 2024 and grades him at 18 runs under par overall. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference have both valued Alonso around 2-3 wins above replacement in each of the last two seasons.

Of course, Alonso’s value to the Mets extends beyond that production. He’s a homegrown star who is already third on the organization’s home run leaderboard. He is 16 homers shy of David Wright for second place and only needs 27 longballs to surpass Darryl Strawberry for the franchise record. He’ll almost certainly break that record, likely next season.

Alonso was also a key contributor during New York’s run to last year’s NL Championship Series. He saved the season in the Wild Card series with his three-run shot off Devin Williams in the ninth inning of Game 3. That was one of four longballs he hit in October. Alonso slashed .273/.431/.568 across 58 postseason plate appearances. Modern front offices are generally wary about putting much stock in small-sample playoff numbers, though, and Alonso’s unexceptional regular season worked against him in free agency.

The four-time All-Star hit the market envisioning a strong nine-figure deal. His camp presumably sought something in the range of the Matt Olson and Freeman contracts. Olson inked an eight-year, $168MM extension with the Braves; Freeman signed a six-year, $162MM guarantee with the Dodgers, though deferrals dropped the net present value closer to $148MM.

At one point, the Mets valued Alonso similarly. Joel Sherman of the New York Post has reported that Alonso declined a seven-year, $158MM extension offer in June 2023. That would have bought out his final arbitration season and six free agent years. Alonso made $20.5MM in his last arbitration year, so he’d need to beat $137.5MM over the next six seasons to come out ahead in that decision.

Circumstances have changed significantly since the Mets made that offer. Alonso has switched his representation to the Boras Corporation. The Mets moved on from then-GM Billy Eppler and installed David Stearns at the top of baseball operations. The Brewers rarely invested heavily in first basemen, even via arbitration, during Stearns’ tenure as Milwaukee’s general manager. He’s operating with a much different payroll ceiling under Steve Cohen’s ownership, but this generally hasn’t been his preferred player archetype.

While Stearns and Cohen maintained that they wanted Alonso back, they didn’t want to do so on a long-term deal. They made the obvious decision to put forth a qualifying offer, which the slugger easily rejected. It seems they held off on going beyond three years. As his free agency dragged, Alonso moved off his desire for a long-term deal in talks with the Mets. His camp reportedly pitched a three-year term with multiple opt-out chances. Financial specifics aren’t clear, but the Mets countered with a three-year proposal in the $68-70MM range in the middle of January. After Alonso declined, the Mets signaled they were willing to move on to contingencies.

Whether the Mets actually believed Alonso would walk or were merely signaling that as negotiating leverage, they must come away pleased with the result. The Mets reportedly had two different offers on the table: a three-year, $71MM proposal or the two-year deal which he ultimately accepted. Will Sammon of The Athletic reports that the three-year term also included an opt-out after the first season and would have broken down as a $27MM salary in year one followed by $22MM salaries if he didn’t opt out. Alonso preferred the extra $3MM in the first season, betting on himself to play well enough to take the out clause next winter.

The Mets keep the term short and retain Alonso on a deal that more closely resembles the two-year contracts signed by Rhys Hoskins ($34MM with Milwaukee) and Joc Pederson ($37MM with Texas) than the Olson or Freeman precedents. It’s an ideal cap to a dangerous lineup. The Mets won the Juan Soto bidding on the record-shattering $765MM deal as the Winter Meetings were getting underway. New York brought back Jesse Winker to serve as their designated hitter, at least against right-handed pitching. That’ll keep Mark Vientos at third base for another season. Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Alvarez are key holdovers, with Jeff McNeil and one of Tyrone Taylor or Jose Siri rounding out the projected starting nine.

Keeping Vientos at third base blocks the clearest path to playing time for younger infielders Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña and Ronny Mauricio. The latter two could push McNeil for reps at second base. They all have a minor league option remaining, so the Mets could keep all three at Triple-A Syracuse. They don’t need to make a trade — there’s a good chance Alonso will retest free agency next winter — but it’s possible the surplus makes them more willing to include an upper-level infielder in a package for a top-end starter. New York has built strong rotation depth but arguably needs to increase the rotation’s ceiling to pull ahead of the Phillies and Braves in what’ll be a tough NL East race.

The deal pushes the Mets’ projected payroll to roughly $331MM, according to the RosterResource calculations. The $27MM luxury tax hit brings them to $325MM in CBT obligations. That pushes them firmly beyond the $301MM threshold that marks the final tier of penalization. They’re taxed at a 90% clip for the approximate $3MM to push them to that threshold and at a 110% rate on spending beyond that point. The signing comes with approximately $29.1MM in taxes. They’ll pay around $59MM this season to keep Alonso. New York also relinquishes the right to the compensatory draft choice that they would have received had he signed elsewhere after declining the qualifying offer. That pick would have come after the fourth round.

Alonso secures a strong one-year salary with an eye towards a more lucrative free agent trip next winter. Players cannot receive a QO more than once in their career, so he’d hit the market without draft compensation if he opts out. He’d still come out ahead of that declined extension offer if he secures a deal worth more than $107.5MM over the ensuing five seasons. That’s by no means a guarantee, as he’ll be working against the aging curve, but it’s the kind of risk-reward play that a lot of free agents take if they don’t find their ideal long-term deal on their first free agent try.

Andy Martino of SNY first reported that the Mets were re-signing Alonso. Jeff Passan of ESPN had the two-year, $54MM guarantee and the $30MM in year one. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the signing bonus and that Alonso declined a three-year term, which USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported had a $71MM guarantee. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Marlins Sign Cal Quantrill

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The Marlins announced that they have signed right-hander Cal Quantrill to a one-year deal. Left-hander Braxton Garrett has been transferred to the 60-day injured list as the corresponding move. Quantrill’s deal reportedly guarantees him $3.5MM, though the Excel Sports Management client can potentially earn another $500K via incentives.

Quantrill, 30, just finished a season pitching for the Rockies. After a few years pitching for the Guardians, he was flipped to Colorado and had to navigate the challenge of pitching at altitude in 2024. Given the conditions, the results were passable. He made 29 starts and logged 148 1/3 innings, allowing 4.98 earned runs per nine. His 16.8% strikeout rate was subpar but pretty normal for him. His 10.5% walk rate was a bit higher than average while his 44.4% ground ball rate was right around par.

The Rockies could have brought Quantrill back for 2025, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a $9MM salary, but they opted to non-tender him instead. That sent him to free agency without being exposed to waivers, which made him available to work out this deal with the Marlins.

He has had some better numbers in the past. Over the 2021 and 2022 seasons with Cleveland, he worked a swing role, making 54 starts and 18 relief appearances. Over those campaigns, he posted a 3.16 ERA with an 18% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate and 42.6% ground ball rate. He benefited from a .274 batting average on balls in play and 77.9% strand rate in that time, which were both on the lucky side. His 4.10 FIP and 4.50 SIERA over that span were perhaps better reflections of his performance but still solid numbers for a back-end starter or swingman.

In 2023, things regressed for him a bit. He spent some time on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation and was only able to make 19 starts. He had a 5.24 ERA and was designated for assignment after the season, which led to his trade to Colorado.

The Marlins are likely looking for Quantrill to serve as a steadying force in a rotation that has talent but is in flux. With the club rebuilding, they have had a strong willingness to deal players over the past year. In the rotation, they traded Trevor Rogers to the Orioles at last year’s deadline and then Jesús Luzardo to the Phillies in this offseason. Garrett is also going to miss the 2025 season while recovering from surgery on the ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow. Eury Pérez is recovering from Tommy John surgery and isn’t slated to return until around the All-Star break.

As of now, the on-paper rotation consists of Sandy Alcántara, Ryan Weathers, Edward Cabrera and Max Meyer, with plenty of uncertainty in those remaining options. Alcántara is returning after Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2024 campaign. Even if he’s successful in coming back healthy, he will likely be in trade rumors this summer. Weathers had some good numbers last year but spent a decent chunk of time on the IL due to a finger strain and still hasn’t thrown 100 innings in an MLB season. Cabrera has also never hit the 100-inning plateau and has walked 13.3% of opponents in his career. He’s also been in plenty of trade rumors and could be flipped if he shows some hints of improvement. Meyer missed the 2023 season recovering from Tommy John surgery and came back last year to make 11 big league starts with a 5.68 ERA.

The Fish have some depth options like Valente Bellozo, Adam Mazur and Connor Gillispie, but those guys all have options. Quantrill can take a rotation spot and bump those guys down to the Triple-A rotation, at least until an injury or a trade opens up an opportunity. If Quantrill pitches well, he’ll likely end up on the trade block himself.

RosterResource currently pegs the Marlins for a competitive balance number of just over $83MM, which should jump to around $86-87MM once Quantrill’s deal is factored in. It has been reported that they may need to get up to $105MM to avoid being subject to a grievance from the MLBPA, in relation to the use of their revenue-sharing funds. If the club plans to get to that number, then perhaps they will look to make further upgrades to their roster in the coming weeks.

 Alden González of ESPN reported that the two sides were in agreement prior to the official announcement. Craig Mish of the Miami Herald first reported the $3.5MM guarantee. Robert Murray of FanSided reported that Quantrill can earn as much as $4MM on the deal, suggesting that there are potential incentives worth $500K.

Anthony Rendon To Undergo Hip Surgery, Facing “Long-Term” Absence

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Angels third baseman Anthony Rendon is slated to undergo hip surgery and will face a “long-term” absence, general manager Perry Minasian announced to the Angels beat this morning (link via Sam Blum of The Athletic).

Rendon, 34, is entering the sixth season of a seven-year, $245MM contract that has proved a catastrophic misstep for the Angels organization. He played 52 of 60 possible games during his first season with the Halos and looked every bit like the star they’d hoped to sign, slashing .286/.418/.497 in 232 plate appearances. It’s been all downhill from there.

Over the past four seasons, Rendon has played 205 of a possible 648 games (31.6%) and posted an anemic .231/.329/.336 batting line. Dating back to 2021 alone, Rendon has had a staggering 12 different IL placements. This hip procedure will account for his 13th. He’s missed time with a near-interminable list of injuries which, in order, reads as follows: knee contusion, hamstring strain, hip impingement, wrist inflammation, wrist surgery, groin strain, wrist contusion, shin contusion, hamstring strain, back inflammation, oblique strain — and now hip surgery.

As Minasian explains, Rendon had a setback during his offseason rehab work, leading to the upcoming operation. Even prior to that, Minasian had stated that after the past four seasons, Rendon would not simply be handed the third base job on account of his contract. The Angels were open to everyday additions at the hot corner throughout the winter and reportedly looked into potential trades for Nolan Arenado, Alec Bohm and Eugenio Suarez. The recently signed Yoan Moncada to a one-year, $5MM deal. With Rendon out indefinitely, Moncada’s already apparent status as the team’s primary third baseman is only further solidified.

There’s no exact timetable for Rendon’s return, but at this point it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll make it back to the field in an Angels uniform. He’s been injured more often than not since signing in Anaheim and now faces the prospect of rehabbing from a major surgery in his mid-30s. He’s signed through the 2026 season, bringing him close to the point at which teams start to feel comfortable cutting bait on underwater contracts.

Given Moncada’s own lengthy injury history, the Angels may have to patch things together at the hot corner this year. Utility infielder Kevin Newman signed a big league deal early in the offseason and could see frequent time there. He may also get some early run at shortstop with Zach Neto still mending from shoulder surgery. Neto said today (via MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger) that he recently got some “good news” and is ahead of schedule in his recovery, but it’s still not a given that he’ll be ready for Opening Day. He’s hitting off a tee but is not yet cleared to throw.

Among the notable non-roster invitees in Angels camp who could factor into the infield mix — especially early — are Tim Anderson, J.D. Davis, Carter Kieboom and Yolmer Sanchez.

Padres Sign Jason Heyward

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February 11: The Padres have officially announced the deal. Per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Heyward is guaranteed $1MM with another $250K available via incentives. Jon Heyman of The New York Post provides details on those incentives, with Heyward getting $50K for getting to 200, 250, 300, 350 and 400 plate appearances.

February 7: The Padres have reached agreement with Jason Heyward on a free agent deal, reports Dennis Lin of The Athletic. Lin indicates that Heyward is expected to split time in left field with San Diego’s other recent free agent pickup, Connor Joe. Terms are unreported, but it seems likely to be a one-year major league deal for the Excel Sports Management client. The Padres have four openings on the 40-man roster and can accommodate Joe and Heyward without any corresponding moves.

Heyward is headed into his age-35 season. He has spent the past two years as a left-handed platoon bat in the corner outfield. That role suited him quite well in 2023. Heyward caught on with the Dodgers after being released by the Cubs before what would have been the final season of his eight-year contract. He had his best offensive showing in some time, hitting .269/.340/.473 with 15 homers across 377 plate appearances.

The Dodgers brought him back on a $9MM contract early last offseason. He was unable to match the previous year’s production. Heyward missed six weeks early in the season rehabbing a lower back injury. He hit fairly well immediately upon his return but suffered a bone bruise in his left knee at the beginning of July. That knocked him out of action for another three weeks. He fell into a slump upon coming back from that injury. The Dodgers designated him for assignment towards the end of August.

Heyward was sitting on a .208/.289/.393 line when the Dodgers cut him. He quickly landed a big league deal with the Astros, where he fared a bit better in a small sample. Heyward hit four homers in 24 games with Houston, posting a .218/.283/.473 slash across 61 trips to the plate. He cracked the playoff roster and got the start in left field for Game 2 of Houston’s Wild Card series loss at the hands of the Tigers.

Between the two teams, Heyward finished the year with a .211/.288/.412 slash over 258 plate appearances. He posted roughly average strikeout and walk rates while showing a bit of power, connecting on 10 homers in around a half-season’s worth of playing time. He hit a lot of ground-balls to the pull side, though, an approach that wasn’t conducive to strong ball in play results. His .226 average on balls in play was a career low; only seven hitters with 250+ plate appearances had a lower BABIP.

Heyward has only taken 50 plate appearances against left-handed pitching over the past two seasons. He’s hitting .188 with a .220 on-base percentage in that tiny sample. The Padres will limit him to almost exclusively facing right-handers. He had a .214/.298/.422 line with the platoon advantage last year and is two seasons removed from a strong .276/.347/.471 showing against righties. It’s unlikely that he’ll get back to the ’23 level, but he can potentially turn in slightly above-average numbers with the platoon advantage. Joe, a right-handed hitter, had a .251/.353/.418 line against left-handed pitching over his two seasons with the Pirates.

The Friars used David Peralta as a lefty platoon corner outfielder last season. He hit .273/.329/.431 across 234 plate appearances in that role — strong work for a player who joined the team on a minor league deal in the middle of May. Peralta remains unsigned, while the Friars didn’t make a serious effort to retain Jurickson Profar because of payroll limitations. A Heyward/Joe platoon is going to be a significant step down from Profar’s unexpected .280/.380/.459 performance. They were inevitably going to downgrade at the position. Profar played last season on a $1MM salary, making him the biggest bargain signing of last offseason.

Neither the Joe nor Heyward terms have been reported, but they’ll each be modest deals. They join Elias Díaz’s $3.5MM signing as San Diego’s free agent acquisitions this winter. RosterResource calculates their competitive balance tax payroll around $247MM (pending the Joe and Heyward deals). That puts them about $6MM above the luxury tax threshold; they ended last season with a CBT number in the $228MM range. A late-offseason trade to clear payroll and add affordable help to the back of the rotation remains a possibility.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Twins Sign Harrison Bader

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The Twins officially announced the signing of outfielder Harrison Bader to a one-year deal with a 2026 mutual option. It’s a reported $6.25MM guarantee for the VaynerSports client. That breaks down as a $750K signing bonus, a $4MM base salary, and a $1.5MM buyout on the $10MM option. The buyout price could climb by another $1.5MM based on playing time: $200K at 400, 425 and 450 plate appearances, then by $450K at 475 and 500. There’s also a $500K assignment bonus if Bader is traded.

Bader, 31 in June, is a glove-first guy. From 2018 to 2024, he has been credited with 75 Outs Above Average, the top mark among all outfielders for that span. His tally of 48 Defensive Runs Saved in that stretch is only marginally less impressive, putting him sixth in the majors overall.

His offensive contributions have been less consistent, and more muted of late. From 2018 to 2021, he hit .244/.325/.420 for the Cardinals. That production translated to a 101 wRC+, meaning he was just 1% above average. Since he also stole 38 bases in that time and provided his aforementioned strong defense, he was a very valuable player in that stretch.

But in recent years, his batting has been a notch or two below that. Over the past three seasons, he has bounced from the Cardinals to the Yankees, Reds and Mets, hitting .239/.284/.360 for a wRC+ of 79. The glovework has still be strongly rated in that time and he swiped another 38 bags over those three years, but the diminished offense has naturally tamped his overall contributions.

On the whole, he has still been a useful player, even though the bat has been subpar. FanGraphs credited him with 3.7 wins above replacement over the past three campaigns, with at least 1.0 fWAR in each. Last year, he got into 143 games for the Mets. He hit 12 home runs and stole 17 bases. His batting line of .236/.284/.373 led to a wRC+ of just 85, but he was still worth 1.3 fWAR thanks to his speed and defense.

Bader seems likely to fill the role that Manuel Margot had in 2024. Margot appeared in 129 games for the Twins last year, though he was only in the starting lineup for 70. He spent a bit of time in all three outfield positions, doing some pinch hitting and pinch running. He stepped to the plate 343 times and hit .238/.289/.337 for a wRC+ of 79. He was once a strong glove-first outfielder like Bader, though the defensive metrics have soured on him over the past three years.

The Twins have a strong everyday center fielder in Byron Buxton, though he has struggled to stay on the field in his career. He has never played more than 140 games in a season and only once gone past 102. Last year, he got to that 102 number, which was just the second time in his career playing more than 92 games in a season.

As such, the Twins have seemingly made it a mission to have a strong center-field-capable fourth outfielder on the roster. They acquired Michael A. Taylor for the 2023 season, Margot last winter and are now going with Bader for 2025.

By having Bader on the roster, the club has some cover for if Buxton requires time on the injured list again. They also don’t have a surefire designated hitter, so it’s possible that Buxton serves as the DH with some regularity. Buxton is an excellent defensive center fielder himself, so that would rob him of some of his value, but having Bader take his spot in the field would at least mean there’s no downgrade out there. Going that route on occasion could perhaps allow Buxton stay a bit healthier than in some other years, thus staying with the club for a larger chunk of the season.

With Max Kepler hitting free agency, the Twins project to have Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach in the corners. Bader can spell those two on defense occasionally and also perhaps platoon with them, as he hits from the right side while Wallner and Larnach are lefties with notable career splits. Bader had reverse splits in 2024 but has hit .249/.314/.461 against lefties in his career for a 109 wRC+. That’s compared to a .239/.303/.367 line and 84 wRC+ against righties.

The Twins also have Willi Castro and Austin Martin as guys who could figure into the outfield mix, but they are also capable of playing the infield. Like with Buxton in the outfield, there are some health concerns on the dirt, as Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis and José Miranda have had notable injury concerns over the years.

It’s been a pretty quiet offseason for the Twins overall, with the front office apparently working under some notable constraints. The 2024 payroll dropped by about $30MM compared to the previous year, which was apparently due to the ongoing uncertainty with their broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group. This year, the Twins are having MLB handle their broadcasts, which is likely to bring in less revenue than their previous arrangement. On top of that, the club is currently for sale. It’s possible that the current owners prefer to keep the long-term books fairly clean, leaving the future spending decisions to the new ownership group.

Going into this week, the Twins hadn’t made a significant trade nor agreed to sign a free agent to a major league deal. They have ramped up their activity, relatively speaking, by giving one-year deals to Coulombe and Bader this week. Bader’s deal does have a mutual option, but those are almost never picked up by both sides. They are essentially just an accounting measure to kick some of the spending to the end of the season.

For much of the offseason, it seemed as though the club might have to clear some payroll to make moves, perhaps by trading someone like Christian Vázquez or Chris Paddack. It remains to be seen whether that is still the case or if they found enough coins in the couch cushions to simply make these additions without subtractions.

There are still some viable infielders and starting pitchers in free agency, but the outfield market has been more picked over. As of a couple of weeks ago, Jurickson Profar was last outfielder still unsigned who profiled as a clear everyday player. He signed a three-year pact with Atlanta, leaving mostly part-time, role-playing types on the market.

Since then, a number of those players have signed fairly similar one-year deals. Austin Hays got $5MM from the Reds, Ramón Laureano got $4MM from the Orioles and Randal Grichuk got $5MM from the Diamondbacks. Those guys can all play center in a pinch but Bader is clearly above them defensively, which has perhaps allowed him to come out ahead. For clubs still looking for outfield help, Mark Canha, Alex Verdugo, Jason Heyward and David Peralta are some of the guys still out there.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported that the Twins were signing Bader to a one-year deal with a mutual option. Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported the $6.25MM guarantee. Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune had the specific salary breakdown. Heyman had the specifics on the buyout escalators and the assignment bonus.

Tigers Sign Jack Flaherty

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Feb. 7: The Tigers have formally announced Flaherty’s two-year deal.

Feb. 2: Jack Flaherty is returning to the Motor City, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan (multiple links) reports that the right-hander has signed a two-year deal with the Tigers worth $35MM in guaranteed money.  The frontloaded deal pays Flaherty $25MM in 2025, and he can opt out of the second year of the contract this fall to re-enter free agency.  Flaherty will earn at least $10MM in 2026, though he can unlock up to an additional $10MM in incentive bonuses if he makes 15 starts this season.  The deal will become official once Flaherty passes a physical, and the right-hander is represented by CAA Sports.

The new contract is a healthy increase over the one-year, $14MM deal Flaherty signed with Detroit in December 2023, as the righty was looking to rebuild his value after a few injury-marred and inconsistent seasons with the Cardinals and Orioles.  Flaherty got himself back on track in impressive fashion, delivering a 2.95 ERA over 18 starts and 106 2/3 innings for the Tigers before he was dealt to the Dodgers at the trade deadline.

Now pitching for his hometown team, Flaherty had a 3.58 ERA in 55 1/3 regular-season innings for L.A. and had a couple of big moments in the playoffs, most notably seven shutout innings against the Mets in Game 1 of the NLCS.  After capturing his first World Series ring, Flaherty headed into the open market in search of a lucrative long-term deal, bolstered by his 2024 production and unencumbered by a qualifying offer.

MLBTR rated Flaherty eighth on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, projecting that he’d land a five-year, $115MM contract as he entered his age-29 season.  Even as other pitchers exceeded salary expectations, Flaherty’s market remained relatively cold, and he said in an interview on the Foul Territory podcast just over a week ago that he had received little in the way of formal contract offers.  A couple of weeks ago, reports suggested that Flaherty was open to the type of shorter-term deal with an opt-out that he ended up signing for his second stint in a Tigers uniform.

The Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, Giants, Blue Jays, and Orioles were all linked to Flaherty at various points during the offseason, and reports of Detroit’s interest in a reunion first surfaced back in early December.  Flaherty noted during his Foul Territory interview that he “wanted to stay in Detroit” before the deadline trade, and “loved” his previous time with the team, particularly pitching alongside Tarik Skubal in the rotation.

It could be that Flaherty lingered this long on the open market because teams wanted to see more than just his 2024 season before being sold on a longer-term commitment.  Injury concerns may have been a factor, as the Yankees pulled out of a planned deal to acquire Flaherty at the deadline after looking at his medical records.  Apart from one skipped start due to a bad back, Flaherty was otherwise pretty healthy in 2024, avoiding the injured list and tossing 184 combined innings during the regular season and postseason.  His average fastball velocity was a modest 93.3mph, however, and he lost some velo later in the season after the trade.

Looking elsewhere on the Statcast page, Flaherty posted an excellent 29.9% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate, along with strong hard-contact and chase rates to go along with his 3.17 combined ERA with Detroit and Los Angeles.  It was the kind of form that Flaherty hadn’t shown over a full season since 2019, when he finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting while pitching with the Cardinals.

It is relatively uncommon to see a player get dealt by a team at the trade deadline and then re-sign with that same team the following offseason, yet the way this scenario played out, the Tigers’ decision to move Flaherty couldn’t have worked out much better.  Detroit received prospects Trey Sweeney and Thayron Liranzo from the Dodgers, and Sweeney already made an impact by becoming the Tigers’ regular shortstop down the stretch.  Unlike most deadline sellers, the Tigers caught fire late in the season and made an improbable playoff run, going 31-13 over their last 44 games to win a wild card berth, and Detroit then upset the Astros in the Wild Card Series before taking the Guardians to the full five games in the ALDS.

After relying on the “pitching chaos” strategy for much of that run, the Tigers’ rotation looks a lot more stable heading into 2025.  Flaherty and fellow new signing Alex Cobb join Skubal, Reese Olson as pitchers with set rotation spots, and the list of fifth starter candidates includes the likes of Kenta Maeda, Casey Mize, Jackson Jobe and Matt Manning.  Detroit might well keep this entire group to guard against injuries, but there’s enough depth here that the Tigers could consider trading a starter to address another primary need, like relief pitching or a right-handed bat.

Among Detroit’s primary free agent signings this winter, Cobb, Gleyber Torres, and Tommy Kahnle all signed one-year contracts and Flaherty’s deal might also end up as a one-year pact should he exercise his opt-out clause.  Even if Flaherty passes on his opt-out, all these signings fit president of baseball operations Scott Harris’ preferred model of shorter-term contracts.  This isn’t to say that the Tigers haven’t at least explored longer-term deals (i.e. their ongoing pursuit of Alex Bregman), but focusing on just short-term upgrades has allowed the club to keep its financial powder dry for a bigger splash in the future.  Flaherty, Colt Keith, and Javier Baez are the only Tigers players guaranteed money beyond the 2025 season.

While naturally Flaherty would’ve preferred to have locked down a pricey long-term deal already, another quality season will surely line up nicely for such a contract next winter, even if a full year with the Tigers would make him eligible for a qualifying offer.  In the interim, he’ll bank at least a $25MM payday, and pitch in a comfortable and familiar environment on what looks to be a contending team.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Ippei Mizuhara Sentenced To 57 Months In Prison

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Ippei Mizuhara, former interpreter for Shohei Ohtani, was sentenced to 57 months in prison today. Per Sam Blum of The Athletic, there will be three years of supervised release and Mizuhara has been ordered to pay Ohtani nearly $17MM in restitution.

In March of 2024, reports emerged that millions of dollars had been wired from an account in Ohtani’s name to an illegal gambling ring. Mizuhara initially said that Ohtani agreed to the transfer in order to help him with gambling debts. Ohtani’s attorneys provided an alternative narrative, stating that the player “had been the victim of a massive theft” and Mizuhara was fired by the Dodgers. MLB opened an investigation into the matter shortly thereafter.

Ohtani then read a statement to the media, interpreted by Dodgers employee Will Ireton, who had replaced Mizuhara. Ohtani stated that he had never bet on baseball, nor any other sport. He also claimed to have had no knowledge of Mizuhara’s behavior until just before the recent reporting. “Ippei has been stealing money from my account and has told lies,” Ohtani said.

In April of 2024, Mizuhara was charged with bank fraud, alleged to have transferred more than $16MM from Ohtani’s account to the betting ring. Prosecutors identified Ohtani as a victim in the case. Mizuhara allegedly set up the account with Ohtani in 2018, when the player was first making the move from Japan to North America. The two had met while both were employed by the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters, Ohtani’s Nippon Professional Baseball club.

Per the allegations, Mizuhara repeatedly contacted the bank and pretended to be Ohtani in order to access the account and get money to fuel his gambling habit. Ohtani’s agent repeatedly asked about the account but Mizuhara told him it was “private” and that Ohtani didn’t want anyone else to monitor it. Ohtani, meanwhile, believed that his accountants and financial advisors were monitoring the accounts. Since Mizuhara handled all the language interpretation between Ohtani and his team, each side remained unaware of what was going on.

Investigators had also seen text messages from Mizuhara admitting to the theft. “Technically I did steal from him,” one message read. “It’s all over for me.” Investigators viewed the text messages between Ohtani and Mizuhara, finding no evidence that the player had made any bets on sports, nor that he knew anything about Mizuhara’s betting. Though Mizuhara made hundreds of bets on sports, there is no evidence of him betting on baseball.

In May of 2024, Mizuhara pled guilty to multiple charges, including bank fraud and subscribing to a false tax return. It was suggested at that time that Mizuhara would likely be deported to Japan once the legal process had played out. Major League Baseball closed its investigation into Ohtani in June, citing the thorough investigation which had pointed to the player being a victim, with no charges against him. Per Blum, Mizuhara’s attorneys expect him to be deported, as Mizuhara is a permanent resident of the United States but not a citizen.

Cubs Acquire Ryan Brasier

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The Dodgers announced a trade sending reliever Ryan Brasier and cash considerations to the Cubs in exchange for a player to be named later or cash. Los Angeles had designated the veteran righty for assignment on Thursday when they finalized the Kirby Yates signing. Teams have five days following a DFA to trade a player, so the Dodgers needed to find a deal by tonight or put Brasier on waivers. Chicago designated Rob Zastryzny for assignment in a corresponding 40-man roster move.

Brasier is quite a bit better than most players who end up in DFA limbo. The veteran righty had a strong season and a half in Los Angeles. He signed a minor league deal midway through the 2023 season after being let go by the Red Sox. Brasier had a dominant finish, turning in a 0.70 earned run average across 38 2/3 innings with Los Angeles. The Dodgers retained him on a two-year, $9MM free agent contract.

The 37-year-old was never going to replicate his late-season ’23 numbers. He had another decent year when healthy, working to a 3.54 ERA with a league average 22.7% strikeout percentage. Brasier kept his walk rate to a tidy 4.5% clip, in large part because he got opponents to chase 40% of pitches off the plate.

Health was the biggest caveat. Brasier suffered a significant strain of his right calf in late April. He was shelved into the middle of August and limited to 28 innings on the season. He had an excellent second half but was nevertheless relegated to low-leverage appearances during L.A.’s World Series run. Brasier allowed five runs with seven strikeouts and three walks across nine playoff innings.

The DFA is less a reflection of Brasier of “losing” his job and much more about L.A.’s bullpen depth. They added Tanner Scott and Yates after re-signing Blake Treinen. They join Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips and Alex Vesia as bullpen locks. The Dodgers are going to run a six-man rotation, meaning they can only devote seven roster spots to relievers.

Brasier has well over five years of major league service. He cannot be sent to the minor leagues without his consent. The Dodgers could go back to an eight-man bullpen once Shohei Ohtani returns to the rotation, since Ohtani doesn’t count against their 13-pitcher limit as a two-way player. They’re not going to push Ohtani’s elbow rehab merely to get another bullpen spot, so there’s probably only one available if all their relievers are healthy coming out of camp. Anthony Banda is out of options and seems likely to grab the final relief job.

The Cubs don’t have a ton of roster flexibility with their bullpen either. Chicago acquired Ryan Pressly last week. He’ll close games. Brasier joins Porter Hodge and Tyson Miller as high-leverage righties in front of Pressly. The Cubs added Caleb Thielbar on a $2.75MM free agent deal earlier in the winter; he projects as their top left-hander. Colin Rea is probably ticketed for long relief work.

That’d account for six of eight ’pen slots if everyone’s healthy. Eli Morgan and Nate Pearson may be next on the depth chart, but they both have a minor league option remaining. That isn’t the case for Julian Merryweather or Keegan Thompson. They’d each need to be in the majors or be designated for assignment. Thompson’s swing-and-miss ability probably gives him a leg up.

Brasier will make $4.5MM for the upcoming season. He’ll be a free agent at year’s end. It’s unclear how much of that the Dodgers are paying down. The Dodgers will save 110% in taxes on whatever money they managed to offload. If the Cubs had taken on the entire salary, that would have pushed them to around $211MM in luxury tax obligations (courtesy of RosterResource). They’re more than $30MM shy of the base threshold.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Cubs were acquiring Brasier. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic first mentioned the Dodgers receiving cash considerations. Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times reported the return as a player to be named later or cash.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Diamondbacks Re-Sign Randal Grichuk

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The Diamondbacks announced that they have signed outfielder Randal Grichuk to a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2026. It’s reportedly a $5MM guarantee for the Excel Sports Management client, broken up into a $2MM salary, followed by a $3MM buyout on a $5MM mutual option. He can also earn another $500K via incentives: $250K for getting to 200 plate appearances and another $250K for getting to 275. There’s also a one-time $250K assignment bonus if Grichuk is traded. The club had a 40-man roster vacancy and doesn’t need to make a corresponding move.

Grichuk, 33, signed a similar deal with the Snakes around this time last year. He and the club agreed to a deal with a $2MM guarantee in the middle of February, which turned out to be a big win for the D’Backs. Grichuk played a part-time role, getting into 106 games and stepping to the plate 279 times. He hit .291/.348/.528 in those, production that translated to a 139 wRC+.

Most of that production came in a platoon capacity, which has been a trademark of the righty swinger. He has a .273/.324/.509 line and 121 wRC+ against lefties in his career, compared to a .242/.288/.449 line and 93 wRC+ without the platoon advantage. Arizona sent him to the plate 184 times against southpaws last year and he responded with a huge .319/.386/.528 line and 151 wRC+. They limited him to just 95 trips to the plate against righties, but he actually fared well in those, hitting .242/.274/.527 for a 116 wRC+.

Strikeouts have often been a problem for Grichuk in his career, as he was in the 26 to 32% range in each season from 2014 to 2019. But he then got that down into the low 20s for a few years before dropping all the way to 16.5% in 2024.

That production fit very well on a Diamondbacks club that had a lot of prominent lefties bats and will again in 2025. The outfield mix features Corbin Carroll, Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas. This offseason, the Snakes acquired lefty Josh Naylor to replace righty-swinging Christian Walker at first base. Last year, lefty Joc Pederson was the primary designated hitter, though he became a free agent and signed with the Rangers. It’s possible that the club will redirect some of Pederson’s plate appearances to Pavin Smith, another lefty.

Grichuk gives manager Torey Lovullo plenty of ability to shuffle those lefties out of the lineup whenever he sees fit, either by sending Grichuk out into the field or by putting him in the designated hitter slot. Defensively, Grichuk is capable of playing any of three outfield slots, though he’s a bit better in a corner than in center.

From a financial perspective, it’s not a huge deal in MLB terms, but it still pushes the Diamondbacks farther into uncharted waters. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the club ran an Opening Day payroll of $163MM, which was a franchise record by a significant margin. Thanks in large part to their shocking Corbin Burnes deal, RosterResource projects them to get to $198MM this year. That’s in spite of the club’s broadcast deal falling apart in 2023, leaving them to pivot to an MLB-run model which likely brings in less revenue.

Trading Jordan Montgomery and the $22.5MM he’s owed this year would bring those numbers down, but it’s possible the budget is getting a bit tight at the moment. That might explain why Grichuk’s option buyout is actually higher than his salary, as it allows the club to kick that payment down the road to the end of the season.

On the heels of his solid season, Grichuk got plenty of interest around the league. He was connected to the Orioles, Pirates and Giants throughout the winter. Anne Rogers of MLB.com relays today that the Royals were interested as well. When Jurickson Profar signed with Atlanta a couple of weeks ago, all the surefire everyday outfielders were off the board. That seems to have pushed clubs to pivot to the part-time role players. Austin Hays was signed last week, while Ramón Laureano and Grichuk put pen to paper today. For clubs still looking for outfield help, guys like Harrison Bader, Mark Canha, Jason Heyward and Alex Verdugo are still available.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported that the Diamondbacks were bringing back Grichuk with a $5MM guarantee and incentives that could take it to $5.5MM. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first provided the full breakdown.

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