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Braves To Sign Craig Kimbrel To Minor League Deal

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The Braves and right-hander Craig Kimbrel have agreed to a minor league deal, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The SportsMeter client will earn a $2MM salary if brought up to the big leagues, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. He’ll spend some time building up before reporting to Triple-A Gwinnett, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com.

Kimbrel, 37 in May, has been on a rollercoaster in recent years. He had a long run as one of the most effective closers in the league, starting that tenure with Atlanta. From 2010 to 2014, he tossed 289 innings for them, allowing only 1.43 earned runs per nine. His 9.6% walk rate was a bit high but he had a massive 42.2% strikeout rate in that time. He quickly became the club’s closer and earned 185 saves in a four-year stretch from 2011 to 2014. He would continue to produce similar results for a few years, going to the Padres and Red Sox.

But as alluded to, things have been far rockier lately. A free agent after 2018, Boston gave him a $17.9MM qualifying offer. Kimbrel rejected that offer, meaning that any signing club would have to forfeit at least one draft pick. That seemed to have a significant impact on his market, as he remained unsigned until after the summer draft, which was held in June at that time. No longer tied to draft pick forfeiture, he signed a three-year, $43MM with the Cubs in early June of 2019.

Perhaps it was due to missing the first half of the season, but Kimbrel’s results were awful once he became a Cub. He eventually made 23 appearances for them that year, posting an ugly 6.53 ERA. That carried over into the shortened 2020 season, as he had a 5.28 ERA that year. Over those two seasons, he still struck out 35.2% of opponents but his 14.5% walk rate was far higher than average.

In 2021, he seemed to rebound in a big way. He made 39 appearances for the Cubs that year with a tiny 0.49 ERA. His 9.5% walk rate was still above average but a massive improvement over the previous two years. He also punched out 46.7% of batters faced. He was shipped across Chicago at that year’s deadline, with the White Sox sending Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer to the Cubs. Unfortunately, his results immediately backed up, as he posted a 5.09 ERA over the remainder of the season.

Despite that rough finish, the Sox picked up his $16MM club option, though they traded him to the Dodgers for AJ Pollock just prior to Opening Day 2022. Heading to Los Angeles seemed to work out for a while, though he again had a rough finish. He had a 33.8% strikeout rate in the first half but punched out just 20.7% of opponents in the second half. He lost the closer’s job in September and then was left off the Dodgers’ postseason roster.

Going into 2023, the Phils gave him a one-year, $10MM deal, which led to a good bounceback season. Kimbrel posted a 3.26 ERA over 71 appearances that year, with a 33.8% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. But a one-year, $13MM deal with the Orioles last year led to another downturn. He had a 5.33 ERA for Baltimore, striking out 31.5% of batters but also giving out walks 13.4% of the time. He was designated for assignment and released in September.

The overall track record is obviously impressive. Kimbrel has a career ERA of 2.59 and is fifth on the all-time saves list. He’s just seven behind Kenley Jansen, who will close for the Angels this year, and 38 away from third-place Lee Smith. But he’s been incredibly shaky in recent years, so it’s anyone’s guess what he can provide this year.

There’s little harm on a minor league deal. Atlanta can get a close-up look at him over the next few weeks and see how it goes. If he doesn’t look like he can engineer another bounceback, they can simply move on. Some veterans have guaranteed opt-outs in their minor league deals, but that wouldn’t apply to Kimbrel since he was released before the end of the 2024 season. It’s possible he negotiated some opt-outs into his deal, though no details of that nature have been reported yet.

Atlanta’s bullpen took a hit when it was reported that Joe Jiménez will likely miss the entire season due to knee surgery. They should have Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee, Pierce Johnson and Aaron Bummer locked into four spots. One of Ian Anderson or Grant Holmes could have a long relief role. That leaves three spots available early on. Daysbel Hernández is on the roster and could secure one.

The club also has a big collection of notable guys on minor league deals, including Héctor Neris, Enyel De Los Santos, Jake Diekman, Chasen Shreve, Buck Farmer and others. That is perhaps a reflection of the club hoping to avoid the competitive balance tax this year. Per RosterResource, they project to have a $230MM CBT number, about $11MM shy of the $241 base threshold. They have opted to sign many minor league deals and hope that a handful of them turn out to be hidden gems.

Kimbrel will jump into that cluster of non-roster veterans trying to earn major league jobs. He has the most impressive track record of anyone in that group but is a few weeks behind them and will have to overcome the memories of a poor 2024 season.

Photo courtesy of Tommy Gilligan and Kareem Elgazzar, Imagn Images.

Cubs Promote Matt Shaw

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The Cubs announced their roster for Tuesday night’s season opener against the Dodgers at the Tokyo Dome (relayed by Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network). As expected, Chicago officially promoted top third base prospect Matt Shaw. They designated reliever Keegan Thompson for assignment to clear the necessary 40-man roster spot. That move was foreshadowed when they left the out-of-options righty off their travel roster last week. Chicago also placed righty Javier Assad on the 15-day injured list with a left oblique strain.

Shaw’s promotion, while telegraphed once the Cubs announced he’d travel with the team to Tokyo, is the most significant of these transactions. The 23-year-old infielder figures to start at third base against Dodgers righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto in what’ll be his major league debut. It was a quick rise through the minors for the Maryland product. The Cubs drafted him 13th overall in 2023. Shaw hit .357 in 38 games in the low minors during his draft year. He continued to rake upon making the move to Double-A to start the ’24 campaign.

The righty-hitting infielder played in 86 games at the Double-A level. He hit .279/.373/.468 to earn a promotion to Triple-A Iowa in August. He performed even better at the top minor league level, closing the year with a .298/.395/.534 slash with seven homers across 35 contests. The Cubs cleared a path for him to take over the hot corner when they dealt Isaac Paredes to Houston as part of the Kyle Tucker blockbuster.

Chicago made a late-offseason push for Alex Bregman as a short-term deal became a legitimate possibility. Once Bregman agreed to terms with the Red Sox on a three-year contract, the hot corner became Shaw’s job to lose. While six exhibition games weren’t likely to move the needle one way or the other, he didn’t hurt his case by collecting five hits and three walks with only one strikeout in 19 Spring Training plate appearances.

Shaw is the consensus choice as the top prospect in a strong Cubs system. He ranks among the top 50 prospects in the sport at each of Baseball America, FanGraphs (Eric Longenhagen), MLB Pipeline, ESPN (Kiley McDaniel), and The Athletic (Keith Law). The various scouting reports project Shaw as a potential 25-homer bat with the ability to hit for a high average, though McDaniel and Longenhagen each express minor concern with his propensity for chasing sliders on the outer half. Shaw is regarded as a plus runner who should be capable of sticking on the infield.

A middle infielder by trade, Shaw will play mostly third base with Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner having the middle infield secured. Hoerner did not travel to Tokyo as he finishes his rehab from October flexor tendon surgery. The Cubs have maintained hope that Hoerner will be ready for next Thursday’s domestic Opening Day. Jon Berti seems the likeliest option to start these two games in his place.

Shaw easily qualifies for the prospect criterion (on at least two of the preseason Top 100 lists at Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and ESPN) of the CBA’s Prospect Promotion Incentive. Assuming he sticks on the Cubs’ roster for a full service year, the team would receive an extra draft choice after the first round if Shaw either wins Rookie of the Year or finishes top three in MVP balloting within his first three seasons. Shaw will be under club control through 2030 and will qualify for arbitration during the 2027-28 offseason if he holds his active roster spot. If he struggles and the Cubs option him back to the minors, that could obviously change his free agent trajectory.

While Shaw is the higher-profile rookie, he’s not the only Cub infielder in line to make his MLB debut. Rule 5 pick Gage Workman also made the Opening Day roster. Chicago grabbed the left-handed hitter out of the Detroit system in December. A fourth-round pick out of Arizona State in 2020, Workman is coming off .280/.366/.476 slash with 18 homers and 30 stolen bases in Double-A. He has never played at the top minor league level.

Workman couldn’t have done much more in camp to force the Cubs to hang onto him. He drilled three homers, stole as many bases, and hit .424 in 15 Spring Training games. Workman has an intriguing combination of power and athleticism. He’s a capable defender on the left side of the infield. The question is whether he’ll make enough contact to stick on the MLB roster. Workman fanned at a 27.5% clip last season and has a career 32.9% strikeout rate.

Teams must keep Rule 5 draftees on the MLB roster or injured list for the entire season to retain their long-term contractual rights. They’d otherwise need to be placed on waivers and, if unclaimed, be offered back to their original organization. The Cubs have Berti, Workman, Justin Turner and the out-of-options Vidal Bruján working off the bench. They probably won’t be able to roster all four players once Hoerner is healthy, but they’re each on the team for the two-game set in Tokyo.

Image courtesy of Allan Henry, Imagn Images.

Royce Lewis To Begin Season On Injured List

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March 17: Lewis has been diagnosed with a “moderate” hamstring strain and will begin the season on the injured list, writes Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. The injury is “not even close” to as serious as the quad strain that sidelined Lewis for more than two months early last season, according to Lewis himself. The team still does not have a formal timetable for his return to the active roster, however.

March 16: The Twins suffered a potentially devastating blow today when third baseman Royce Lewis exited the game after pulling up while running out a grounder. As relayed by Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, the Twins subsequently announced that the infielder had been diagnosed with a hamstring strain. The severity of the injury is currently unclear, but it seems likely that Lewis will miss at least some time with Opening Day less than two weeks away.

Lewis, 25, is among a number of immensely talented but often injured players on the Twins’ roster. The first overall pick in the 2017 draft, Lewis was a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport all the way back in 2019 and appeared to be on the verge of a big league debut in 2021. Unfortunately, a right ACL tear wiped out the entire 2021 season for the youngster, and while he made his big league debut in 2022 he suffered a second right ACL tear shortly thereafter that sidelined him until late May of 2023.

He’s been a more regular fixture of the club’s big league roster since that second call-up, though he’s missed time over the past two years due to oblique, hamstring, quad, and adductor strains. All of those injury woes have left Lewis with just 140 games played and 564 plate appearances under his belt over the past two seasons, though he’s remained an exciting talent through all of those issues and slashed .265/.328/.493 with a 127 wRC+ and 3.5 fWAR while playing third base for the Twins when healthy enough to take the field.

After his first fully healthy offseason of his major league career, it seemed as though Lewis was set to finally have a shot at participating in a wire-to-wire MLB season. Those hopes have likely been scuttled for the time being now, though, as his latest hamstring injury appears likely to keep him off the club’s Opening Day roster given Lewis’s lengthy injury and, more specifically, his history of lower half issues. It should be expected that the Twins will proceed with caution when it comes to handling the youngster given that context, although it seems likely that a more specific timetable for Lewis’s return won’t be clear until more information about the severity of Lewis’s strain is available.

If there’s a silver lining in this for the Twins, it’s that the club is reasonably well-equipped to handle the loss of Lewis. Jose Miranda is likely the favorite to step in at third base in Lewis’s place and hit a respectable .284/.322/.441 in 121 games last year as he rebounded from a dreadful 2023 campaign. If Miranda were to stumble, however, they’d have further flexibility as well. Brooks Lee is currently penciled in as the club’s second baseman but could slide over to the hot corner to make room for Edouard Julien or top infield prospect Luke Keaschall at the keystone.

Aside from those possibilities, the club also has a versatile option with no set position at its disposal in Willi Castro. Castro is already slated to serve in a super utility role and could cover any spot on the diamond as needed. If Castro were to play on the infield dirt regularly, that could open up time in the outfield or at DH for potential outfield options like DaShawn Keirsey, Austin Martin, or even top prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez.

Jon Gray Suffers Wrist Fracture

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TODAY: A clear recovery timetable hasn’t yet been determined for Gray, but president of baseball operations Chris Young told Kennedi Landry and other media that Gray will indeed be out for an “extended time.”  It will be at least six weeks before Gray is even cleared to start throwing, so it seems like Texas will be placing him on the 60-day IL at some point before Opening Day.

MARCH 14: Rangers starter Jon Gray sustained a broken right wrist during this evening’s Spring Training appearance, manager Bruce Bochy tells Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News and other reporters. Gray was struck by a Michael Toglia line drive that had a 106.4 MPH exit velocity (video provided by Kennedi Landry of MLB.com).

Bochy didn’t provide specifics on a return timeline. Gray is obviously going to begin the season on the injured list and will probably be down for a while. It’s the worst of a handful of pitching injuries for Texas this spring. They announced just yesterday that presumptive fifth starter Cody Bradford was going to begin the season on the injured list after experiencing elbow soreness. An MRI came back clean, but the team is going to be cautious with any level of elbow pain.

Tyler Mahle was scratched from his start earlier this week with forearm soreness. Imaging didn’t reveal any problems and he’ll begin throwing in the coming days. Still, that may require a season-opening IL stint — especially since Mahle just returned from Tommy John surgery midway through 2024.

That placed a lot of emphasis on Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Gray to stay healthy. The season-opening rotation now likely comprises deGrom, Eovaldi, Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. Mahle would round out the group if he can avoid the IL. They otherwise could push expected long reliever Dane Dunning back into the rotation or turn to veteran ground-ball specialist Adrian Houser, who is in camp on a minor league deal. Houser has tossed eight innings of two-run ball with three strikeouts and walks apiece this spring. He allowed a near-6.00 ERA over 69 1/3 innings for the Mets last season.

The rotation’s durability is arguably the biggest question for Texas. deGrom and Eovaldi are 36 and 35, respectively. deGrom has made 35 starts over the last four years. Eovaldi has mostly been durable recently, but he has twice undergone Tommy John surgery in his career. Rocker underwent the same procedure in May 2023. He pitched fewer than 50 innings between the minors and his three-start MLB debut late last season.

Texas will probably look to add minor league rotation depth as veterans opt out of contracts with other teams in the coming weeks. It’s less likely that they’ll make an MLB signing. The Rangers were clear all offseason that they wanted to keep their luxury tax payroll below the $241MM base threshold. RosterResource projects them around $236MM at the moment. Salary acquired in-season via waivers or trade would add to that on a prorated basis. It’d be a surprise if ownership approves going beyond the tax line to sign a free agent starter like Spencer Turnbull or old friends Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. With less than two weeks until Opening Day, none of those pitchers are likely to be game ready for the start of the regular season.

Rays Exercise 2026 Club Option On Yandy Díaz, Add 2027 Vesting Option

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The Rays and Yandy Díaz have worked out a mini extension of sorts. The club announced that it has preemptively picked up his 2026 club option, which is valued at $12MM, while adding a club/vesting option for 2027. Díaz, an ACES client, would reportedly vest the ’27 provision at $13MM if he reaches 500 plate appearances in 2026. If he doesn’t hit that vesting threshold, it would be a $10MM team option with no buyout.

Back in January of 2023, the Rays and Díaz agreed to a three-year, $24MM extension with a club option for 2026. He had just had his first arbitration season in 2022 and he was set to go through the process twice more. That deal bought out those two final arb years and one free agent year, while the option gave the Rays the chance to extend their window of control with Díaz by yet another season. He made $6MM in 2023, $8MM last year and will be making $10MM this year. The 2026 club option was set at $12MM with no buyout.

Over the course of the deal, Díaz has continued to hit, though the first year was far better than the second. In 2023, he hit 22 home runs and slashed .330/.410/.522 for a wRC+ of 163. His .367 batting average on balls in play was helping him out a bit, but he drew walks at a 10.8% clip and only struck out 15.7% of the time. Last year, his walk rate fell to 8.1% and he only hit 14 homers. His BABIP normalized somewhat to .314. The result was a .281/.341/.414 line and 120 wRC+. His defensive grades at first base also slid a bit. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 5.0 wins above replacement in 2023 but just 1.9 fWAR last year.

Díaz is now 33 years old and will turn 34 in August. The Rays could have waited to see how he performed in 2025 before picking up the 2026 option. By locking it in now, they’re getting a potential club option for the following season at a similar salary.

Díaz is perhaps sacrificing a bit of future earning power, but the trade-off for doing so is that he’s guaranteeing himself another $12MM today. That would protect him against a further decline in performance during the 2025 season. Under his previous contract structure, a bad 2025 campaign would have led to his option being declined and him heading to free agency with no buyout. Now he has the $12MM already locked in.

Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times first reported the news and the contract terms.

Rafael Devers Reportedly Considered Asking For Trade

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The Red Sox made a big free agent splash by signing Alex Bregman, but it seems to have led to some unintended consequences. Rafael Devers has clearly not been enthused by the addition and Sean McAdam of MassLive reports that Devers even considered asking for a trade.

Whether he actually asked for a trade or not isn’t known. He spoke to the media yesterday, saying that he had some private conversations with chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and manager Álex Cora, but without going into detail about how those conversations went.

He struck a conciliatory tone yesterday, saying that he will play wherever the team tells him to play, but he previously made it clear that he would prefer to stay at third base. When discussing the situation a month ago, he insisted that he was a third baseman and intended to stay a third baseman.

When he signed a mega extension in January of 2023, Devers was promised he could be the club’s long-term third baseman. However, that promise was made under CBO Chaim Bloom, who is no longer with the club. The latest drama suggests the Breslow regime isn’t so committed to keeping that promise. Per McAdam’s report today, Devers was assured throughout this offseason that the speculation surrounding Boston’s interest in Bregman and Nolan Arenado were just speculative.

Once Bregman signed, some believed that he would take over second base, with Devers staying at third. But more recently, Bregman has continued to line up at the hot corner during spring contests, making it seem as though a move to second base isn’t an immediate concern. Devers has been slow-playing his spring ramp up. He had some soreness in both shoulders last year and spent the winter trying to strengthen both of them. He came into camp a bit behind everyone else and has been taking part in some live BP and intrasquad games, but no official action yet.

While no public declaration has been made, it certainly seems as though the plan is for Bregman to take over third base while Devers serves as the designated hitter. It’s always been expected that Devers would be moved off the hot corner, since he’s not a good fielder. He has tallies of -62 Defensive Runs Saved and -29 Outs Above Average in his career. Moving to first base or DH at some point has been seen as inevitable, but this seems to have arrived sooner than anyone anticipated, certainly sooner than what Devers had been promised a couple of years ago.

While he shifted his public comments, it’s anyone’s guess if he has changed his private feelings on the matter. It will be a situation to watch throughout the season, as little is carved in stone. Bregman’s deal affords him opt-out chances after each year, so it’s possible he could be gone by November. Maybe Devers will be able to take his position again in 2026 but the club probably still considers him a liability there.

His deal runs through 2033, so a move to first base or DH feels like his eventually destiny, but perhaps he can carve out a few more years at third before that becomes permanent. Notably, that deal does not afford him any no-trade protection. If the relationship between Devers and the front office is damaged beyond repair, they could freely trade him wherever they want without having to worry about his preferences. As noted by McAdam, the team isn’t going to publicly say anything if they are trying to trade Devers, since that would be bad for leverage. And there’s no indication that they have any plans on making him available.

How the dominos fall over the rest of this year and into the future could have other impacts. Triston Casas projects as the club’s regular first baseman for now. Masataka Yoshida is not a great defensive outfielder, which makes him another DH candidate. With Devers now perhaps moving off third, Yoshida might have to spend more time in the outfield next to Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela and Roman Anthony. Prospect Kristian Campbell is another outfield candidate but he can also play second base. Then again, the club has Trevor Story at short with prospect Marcelo Mayer working into the middle infield mix.

Given all those moving pieces, there are have been trade rumors surrounding Casas, Yoshida and Abreu over the winter. The idea of Devers being available never seemed to be a consideration but is perhaps a bit more feasible in light of the apparent souring of relations over the past month. If a Devers trade becomes a realistic possibility at some point in the future, it could also impact Arenado’s market. The Cards weren’t able to execute an Arenado trade this offseason but would probably try again at the deadline or in future offseasons.

Rays Will Not Move Forward With Plans For New Ballpark

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As the Rays continue to deal with the lasting impact of damages to Tropicana Field during Hurricane Milton, owner Stu Sternberg announced this morning that his club will no longer be moving forward with the previous tentative plans to construct a new ballpark in St. Petersburg. The team’s statement reads as follows:

“As we all recover from impacts of the hurricanes, we are incredibly grateful for the support from our fans and the wider Tampa Bay community. … After careful deliberation, we have concluded that we cannot move forward with the new ballpark and development project at this moment. A series of events beginning in October that no one could have anticipated led to this difficult decision.

Our commitment to the vitality and success of the Rays organization is unwavering. We continue to focus on finding a ballpark solution that serves the best interests of our region, Major League Baseball and our organization. The City of St. Petersburg is currently advancing plans to restore Tropicana Field for the 2026 season. We are thankful for their efforts and are excited to return to our home field next spring.”

Major League Baseball issued the following statement in the wake of the Rays’ announcement:

“Major League Baseball remains committed to finding a permanent home for the Club in the Tampa Bay region for their fans and the local community. Commissioner Manfred understands the disappointment of the St. Petersburg community from today’s announcement, but he will continue to work with elected officials, community leaders, and Rays officials to secure the club’s future in the Tampa Bay region.”

[Related: Rays Are “Not For Sale,” St. Petersburg Mayor Says “Bridge Has Been Burned”]

Last summer, the Rays reached a tentative agreement to construct a new $1.3 billion stadium — part of a larger $6.5 billion redevelopment project in the historic Gas Plant District site near the existing Tropicana Field. The closed-roof, 30,000-seat stadium was set to open in 2028, and the development plan had been agreed upon by the Rays, Pinellas County and the City of St. Petersburg. The city council and county commission still needed to sign off on the plan, and various benchmarks needed to be hit along the way to ensure the stadium plans would remain on track.

Mother nature, of course, had other intentions. Hurricane Milton wrought immense damage on Tropicana Field, leaving the Rays without a place to play for at least the 2025 season while they evaluated the cost of repairing Tropicana Field’s shredded roof. The Yankees agreed to allow the Rays to host their home games at Tampa’s Steinbrenner Field — home of the team’s Class-A affiliate — for the upcoming 2025 campaign. That plan remains in place.

Even a short-term move to a location outside of Pinellas County rankled some on the county commission, however. The time needed to sort out logistical nightmare stemming from the hurricane damages, coupled with November election cycles that changed the composition of the boards set to approve the necessary bonds to move forward with the project, led to delays in what was already a tightly scheduled development plan for the new facility. Those delays also eventually led to a contentious back-and-forth between the Rays (Sternberg and president Matt Silverman) and Pinellas County that has played out over the offseason. Sternberg acknowledged back in November that relocation was a possible outcome in light of renewed squabbles with local government.

The abandonment of the exiting plan for the 2028 stadium and surrounding development comes against the more recent backdrop of reported pressure from not only other owners but also MLB commissioner Rob Manfred for Sternberg to sell the franchise. Evan Drellich of The Athletic wrote over the weekend that Major League Baseball hopes to keep the Rays in Florida, with a focus on either remaining in St. Petersburg or constructing a new facility in Ybor City near downtown Tampa — a location the Rays have previously explored. Orlando has also been mentioned as an alternative, per Drellich.

At this juncture, the team’s focus is clearly on returning to Tropicana Field for the 2026 campaign. That seems a short-term solution, at best, however. The Rays’ lease at their longtime home originally ran through the 2027 season, though the expiration date was pushed back one season after the Rays were rendered unable to play there in 2025.. The now-scrapped construction of their new Gas Plant District home was set to dovetail with the original expiration of their lease at Tropicana Field. Both Drellich and ESPN’s Jeff Passan have reported within the past week that there are potential buyers lining up in the event the franchise is put up for sale, but Sternberg has in the past made clear that he does not intend to sell the club.

“If it was (for sale), people would know it,” Sternberg told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times last month. “I’ve always been, and I will continue to be, pretty transparent about our intentions. And pretty — not pretty — but very honest about them. And I have been.”

Cardinals Sign Phil Maton

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The Cardinals announced this morning that they’ve signed right-hander Phil Maton to a one-year deal. The Paragon Sports International client will reportedly make $2MM. Left-hander Bailey Horn was designated for assignment to make room for Maton on the club’s 40-man roster.

Maton, 32 later this month, was among the better relief arms still available on the free agent market at this late point in the calendar. Drafted in the 20th round by the Padres back in 2015, Maton will suit up with the Cardinals for his ninth MLB season and hope to continue a stretch of quality work that began with the Astros back in 2022. The first five seasons of Maton’s career saw him struggle despite solid peripherals, with a subpar 4.76 ERA in 215 1/3 innings of work across 209 appearances. He struck out 26.4% of opponents during that time while walking 9.2%. Those numbers were decent enough to keep Maton rostered with San Diego and Cleveland over the years, but he eventually wound up in Houston late in the 2021 season.

The righty’s middling results continued with the Astros through the end of 2021, but by the start of the 2022 season a switch seemed to have flipped. His 25.2% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate over the past three seasons aren’t markedly different than what they were earlier in his career, but the veteran’s results have improved drastically as he’s posted a 3.50 ERA with a 4.11 FIP in 195 2/3 innings of work across 206 games.

After hitting free agency for the first time in his career prior to the 2024 season, Maton signed on with the Rays but struggled with a 4.58 ERA in 40 appearances for them last year. Fortunately for the right-hander, he was traded to the Mets for the stretch run and turned a corner, dominating to the tune of a 2.51 ERA across his final 31 appearances of the regular season.

Now, Maton is headed to St. Louis as the first and perhaps only major-league free agent signing the club will make this offseason. The Cardinals’ plans for the winter were largely hamstrung by an inability to find a trade partner for veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado, resulting in an extremely quiet offseason that was defined most by the departures of key veterans like Paul Goldschmidt in free agency.

Despite the Cardinals’ lack of activity this offseason, they’ve long been known to want a veteran relief arm who could fill the role Andrew Kittredge played last year and create a bridge between closer Ryan Helsley and the rest of a relatively young late-inning mix. They now appear to have found that player in Maton, who has just five career saves but has recorded 42 holds over the past three seasons.

Making room for Maton on the 40-man roster is Horn, a fifth-round pick by the White Sox in the 2020 draft. The 27-year-old lefty was traded to the Cubs in exchange for Ryan Tepera at the 2021 trade deadline and was eventually added to his new club’s 40-man roster, but did not make his big league debut in Chicago. He was traded back to the White Sox last February in order to clear a 40-man roster spot for the return of Cody Bellinger, but was then designated for assignment and traded to Boston in April. He made his big league debut for the Red Sox last June but struggled badly with a 6.50 ERA and 7.00 FIP in 18 innings of work.

During the offseason, Horn was designated for assignment by the Red Sox but picked up off waivers by the Tigers in November. He lasted on Detroit’s 40-man roster for just a month and was claimed off waivers by St. Louis in early January. He’ll now likely return to the waiver wire for the fourth time in the last 11 months. The Cardinals will have one week to either trade Horn or put him through waivers, where he can be claimed by any club willing to offer him a spot on their 40-man roster.

If Horn clears waivers, the Cardinals will get the opportunity to outright him to the minors as a non-roster depth option. That said, Horn is an optionable left-handed reliever who averages 95 mph with his heater and has a track record of missing bats in the upper minors. He could make him an attractive candidate for a waiver claim despite his lackluster results in the majors last year.

Katie Woo of The Athletic was first on the terms.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Sought $500MM Net Present Value In Extension Talks

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Last week, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. told ESPN that his asking price in extension negotiations with the Blue Jays was south of $600MM. The star first baseman didn’t publicly identify his exact demand, though he noted he was looking for a 14-plus year deal.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic provides more specifics, reporting that Guerrero wanted a net present value of $500MM to bypass testing the open market. That could have taken the form of an even $500MM+ without deferrals or a deferred deal with a loftier overall guarantee that would still have pushed the NPV to half a billion dollars. A hypothetical 14-year extension worth $500MM would come with an approximate $35.7MM annual value and would run through Guerrero’s age-39 season (assuming it began this year).

The deferrals were evidently a sticking point. Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of The New York Post report that Toronto offered a deal that was in the $500MM range overall but included deferred money. According to that report, the NPV would have landed between $400MM and $450MM. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet writes that the NPV on the team’s offer was close to $450MM, suggesting they came in at the higher end of the range initially reported by The New York Post.

That would still have represented the third-largest guarantee in league history. Juan Soto easily holds the record at $765MM without deferrals. The Shohei Ohtani deal is respectively valued around $461MM and $438MM by the league and Players Association, respectively. Guerrero sought a number that would have placed him behind only Soto in net present value. His reported asking price was nowhere near Soto money, which so handily shattered prior precedent that it may be an outlier for a while. Still, it seemingly landed upwards of $50MM higher (in NPV terms) than the Jays were willing to go. Guerrero indicated he wasn’t interested in continuing negotiations beyond the opening of Spring Training. He has left the door open to reconsidering but said at the start of camp that he anticipates testing free agency.

The Jays have at least expressed a willingness to stretch the budget beyond Guerrero’s asking price for star players. They were seemingly willing to match the contract that Ohtani accepted from the Dodgers. Their precise offer to Soto isn’t clear but is believed to have been between $600MM and $700MM. That shows they’re not entirely averse to this kind of signing, yet it’s also a fact that the largest contract in franchise history remains the comparatively modest $150MM George Springer deal.

Toronto’s latest offer represents a significant jump from where they opened talks. Guerrero said over the offseason that the Jays’ offers before the Soto bidding were in the $340MM range. While the Soto price point didn’t make them willing to write a blank check for Guerrero, it seemingly contributed to them going $60MM+ above where they had been in terms of present value.

Guerrero is a career .288/.363/.500 hitter. He’s coming off his second-best season, as he raked at a .323/.396/.544 clip with 30 homers a year ago. At his best, he looks like one of the top five hitters in the game. He hasn’t quite maintained that level on an annual basis, though. He finished among the top six in MVP balloting in 2021 (finishing runner-up that year) and ’24. In the intervening two seasons, he hit .269/.341/.462 across nearly 1400 plate appearances. That’s still very good but not the kind of overwhelming numbers that’d force teams to essentially overlook questions about his defensive profile.

Assuming he gets to the market, Guerrero is likely to be the top free agent in the class. Kyle Tucker is arguably a better overall player, but the Cubs outfielder will hit free agency at age 29. Guerrero will get to the market at 27. The two-year age gap gives Guerrero the better chance to land a deal that stretches beyond a decade despite teams’ general reluctance to make extremely long commitments to first basemen.

Dodgers Sign Dave Roberts To Four-Year Extension

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The Dodgers announced the signing of manager Dave Roberts to a four-year extension that covers the 2026-29 seasons. The team did not confirm salary figures, but Roberts will reportedly be paid $32.4MM — an average annual value of $8.1MM. That surpasses the $8MM AAV on Craig Counsell’s five-year, $40MM deal with the Cubs.

The news doesn’t come as a shock. Clubs generally don’t like to have skippers in “lame duck” position, that is, managing on a deal that is about to expire. Reporting throughout the winter has suggested the Dodgers and Roberts were likely to work out a new deal prior to the start of the 2025 season. It was reported on Thursday that the two sides were making progress on a deal that would see Roberts surpass Counsell’s AAV. On Friday, Roberts referred to the talks as being on “the one-yard line”, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic.

Roberts has been at the helm for the Dodgers since November of 2015. The club was already in good overall position at that time, having just won three straight division titles under manager Don Mattingly, but with three straight deflating postseason losses. They lost the NLCS to the Cardinals in 2013 and then suffered quick NLDS defeats in the next two seasons.

Under Roberts, the regular season success has continued and the postseason record improved. They made it to the NLCS in the first season and the World Series in his second and third campaigns. The club lost the 2017 World Series to the Astros and the 2018 series to the Red Sox, both asterisk-marked campaigns for those winning clubs. The Dodgers suffered a quick NLDS exit in 2019 but hoisted the trophy in the shortened 2020 season. The next three seasons saw the club eliminated before the World Series, but they won it all again in 2024, getting Roberts his second ring in five years.

Roberts currently sports a managerial record of 851-506 in the regular season and 56-44 in the postseason, with the Dodgers getting to the playoffs in each season with him at the helm. Roberts has had some loaded rosters to work with but appears to be well-liked by players and other Dodger personnel.

Counsell left the Brewers after the 2023 season with the reported goal of improving the earning power of managers. Joe Torre had been able to secure an $8MM salary in his days with the Yankees but skipper salaries had seemingly stalled. Reportedly, Terry Francona was the highest-paid manager in 2023 with a $4.5MM salary. Counsell managed to get a five-year, $40MM deal from the Cubs, an AAV of $8MM. That seemingly set a baseline foundation, with Roberts able to negotiate his way just over that line. Earlier in the winter, Roberts said he was hopeful of getting a new deal done but wanted “to feel (his) value.”

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported that Roberts and the Dodgers had agreed to a new four-year deal worth slightly more than $8MM annually. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that the deal would start in 2026. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported the $32.4MM total.

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