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Padres Sign Matt Carpenter

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2:00pm: The Padres have officially announced the signing.

12:52pm: The Padres added some punch to their lineup Tuesday, reportedly agreeing to a two-year, $12MM contract with veteran infielder/outfielder Matt Carpenter. Carpenter, a client of SSG Baseball, can opt out of the contract after the 2023 season by declining a 2024 player option. The contract pays Carpenter a $3MM signing bonus and $3.5MM salary for the 2023 campaign, and he’ll have to decide on a $5.5MM player option next winter. He can also reportedly earn $500K bonuses for reaching each of 300, 350, 400, 450, 500 and 550 plate appearances in both seasons of the contract.

Carpenter, who turned 37 years old last month, enjoyed one of the more remarkable rebound campaigns in recent memory this past season. A three-time All-Star with the Cardinals, Carpenter looked to be on the downswing when he posted a combined .176/.313/.291 batting line in 418 plate appearances with St. Louis from 2020-21.

Last offseason, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic detailed the manner in which Carpenter reinvented himself, taking a data-driven approach to hitting and enlisting feedback from the likes of Joey Votto, Matt Holliday and a private hitting coach as he revamped his swing and his entire approach at the plate. The Rangers were intrigued enough to sign him to a minor league contract.

We often see stories of veterans making changes late in their careers, but few have found the level of success enjoyed by Carpenter. After hitting .275/.379/.613 in 21 games with the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate, Carpenter was released by Texas (oops) and signed a Major League deal with the Yankees, for whom he posted a borderline comical .305/.412/.727 slash. Carpenter mashed 15 home runs in just 154 plate appearances, and while he was surely aided to an extent by the dimensions of Yankee Stadium, he still popped six of those round-trippers and batted .253/.333/.506 on the road.

Simply put — and in rather stunning fashion — Carpenter was baseball’s best hitter on a rate basis in 2022 (min. 100 plate appearances). He led all of baseball in slugging percentage, isolated power (slugging minus batting average) and wRC+ (217), ranked second to only Aaron Judge in terms of on-base percentage, and posted the 12th-best batting average of any player in the game. Carpenter’s rate of “barreled” balls (as defined by Statcast) was elite, and his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate both clocked in comfortably north of the league average. There’s no realistic way to expect him to sustain that pace, but Carpenter has clearly put himself back on the map as a viable big league slugger.

Unfortunately for both team and player, the revitalized Carpenter fouled a ball into his foot in early August, resulting in a fracture that wiped out the remainder of his regular season. A predictably rusty Carpenter jumped directly back onto the Yankees’ playoff roster but went just 1-for-12 with an alarming nine strikeouts between the ALDS and the ALCS.

With the Padres, Carpenter becomes the favorite for DH work, though the Yankees played him at both corner infield slots and in both corner outfield positions in 2022. He’s also logged more than 1900 innings at second base in his career, though defensive metrics on his limited work there in 2021 were unsightly, to say the least. Still, he could potentially serve as an option there in an emergency.

The agreement with Carpenter pushes the Padres to more than $246MM in actual cash payroll for the 2023 season and bumps their luxury-tax ledger to nearly $267MM, as projected by Roster Resource. The Padres are already well into the second tier of penalization and, given that they’re entering their third straight season over the luxury line, are being taxed at a 62% rate on every dollar in the second bracket ($253MM to $273MM). As such, Carpenter will cost them an additional $3.72MM in taxes for the 2023 campaign.

AJ Cassavell of MLB.com first reported the two sides had agreed to a deal with a 2024 player option. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the terms and financial details (Twitter links).

Tigers Sign Michael Lorenzen

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December 20: The Tigers have officially announced the signing.

December 14: The Tigers are reportedly in agreement with free agent starter Michael Lorenzen. It’s a one-year, $8.5MM guarantee for the CAA Sports client. The deal, which is pending a physical, also contains $1.5MM in possible incentives.

Lorenzen spent one season in Orange County. Primarily a reliever over seven years with the Reds, he hit the open market for the first time last offseason in search of a rotation opportunity. Lorenzen inked a one-year, $6.75MM pact with the Halos. It was a homecoming for the Anaheim native and Cal State Fullerton product. The season didn’t go entirely as planned, though, as he lost a couple months after suffering a shoulder strain in early July.

The right-hander returned late in the season, making five starts to close out the year. He worked five-plus innings while allowing three or fewer runs in each, finishing his year on a high note despite the Angels being well out of contention. On the season, Lorenzen made 18 starts and tallied 97 2/3 innings — a bit more than 5 1/3 frames per appearance. He pitched to a decent 4.24 ERA while inducing grounders on just over half the batted balls he allowed.

It was a fairly encouraging showing, although Lorenzen’s strikeout and walk marks were a bit worse than average. His 20.7% strikeout rate was a touch below the 21.6% league mark for starters. More concerning was a 10.7% walk percentage that was more than three points higher than average. Of the 153 starters with 70+ innings pitched, only six doled out free passes more frequently than Lorenzen.

Despite his inconsistent strike-throwing, Lorenzen showed enough to intrigue the Tigers to give him a second rotation shot. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that Detroit plans to use him as a starter. He becomes the second roll of the dice for first-year president of baseball operations Scott Harris and his front office. The Tigers reunited with lefty Matt Boyd on a $10MM guarantee this month, giving him a chance to right the ship after losing much of the 2022 campaign to recovery from flexor surgery.

There are certainly reasons for optimism the 30-year-old Lorenzen (31 next month) could offer solid production out of the rotation. He has a deep arsenal, relying on each of his four-seam, sinker, changeup and slider more than 20% of the time and turning to a cutter for around 10% of his offerings in 2022. His changeup generated plenty of swinging strikes and his sinker was effective both as a swing-and-miss and ground-ball offering.

Lorenzen’s well-rounded arsenal helped him limit opponents to a meager .181/.272/.278 line during their third time through the order this past season, albeit with a fairly modest 17.3% strikeout rate. From a platoon perspective, Lorenzen had similar strikeout rates and plus ground-ball numbers against hitters of either handedness. He nibbled around the strike zone far too often against southpaws, however, walking 14.4% of the left-handed batters he faced.

Boyd and Lorenzen join Eduardo Rodríguez, Matt Manning and Spencer Turnbull in the anticipated season-opening rotation. Tarik Skubal will join the group once healthy, though he’s expected to miss some time after undergoing flexor surgery in August. Joey Wentz, Beau Brieske and Alex Faedo are on hand to compete for depth roles behind that group, while Casey Mize is expected to miss most or all of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last summer.

There’s substantial upside but also plenty of risk. Turnbull missed all of 2022 recovering from his own TJ procedure. Lorenzen, Boyd, Manning and Rodríguez lost huge stretches of the year, and Lorenzen hasn’t topped 20 starts since his 2015 rookie campaign in Cincinnati. It’s possible the Tigers look for another arm to add some stable innings to the mix, but the acquisitions of Boyd and Lorenzen suggest Harris’ staff prioritized upside over floor in their rotation pickups. That’s a sensible approach, as Detroit faces an uphill path to contention in 2023. If Boyd and/or Lorenzen can stay healthy and pitch well in the season’s first half, they’d likely be more desirable trade targets to a contender than a lower-upside innings eater would be.

With Lorenzen on the books, Detroit’s 2023 projected player payroll now sits around $124MM at Roster Resource. That’s still below this past season’s $135MM Opening Day mark, so the front office should have the freedom to identify a few more lower-cost targets of interest. Adding at catcher, third base and in the corner outfield could all be under consideration after the Tigers hit a woeful .231/.286/.346 this year.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Tigers were in agreement with Lorenzen. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic was first to report it was a one-year, $8.5MM guarantee with $1.5MM in performance incentives.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Twins Sign Joey Gallo To One-Year Deal

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December 20: The Twins have officially announced Gallo’s signing.

December 16: The Twins are reportedly in agreement with outfielder Joey Gallo on a one-year deal that will pay him $11MM. The two-time All-Star is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Gallo, 29, has occasionally been one of the most fearsome sluggers in the league but is coming off a rough stretch. With the Rangers from 2017 to 2019, he was the poster boy for the three true outcomes: home run, strikeout and walk. In that three-year stretch, he struck out in 36.8% of his plate appearances while the league averages in that time hovered around 22%. His 14.3% walk rate was well beyond the 8.5% league average in that time. He also launched 103 home runs over that stretch, leading to a batting line of .217/.336/.533. Despite the huge punch-out totals, that production was 20% above league average, as evidenced by his 120 wRC+.

The seasons since haven’t been quite as smooth, however. In the shortened 2020 season, Gallo hit .181/.301/.378 for a wRC+ of 86. He seemed to bounce back in the first half of 2021, as he was sitting on a line of .223/.379/.490 for a wRC+ of 138 when the Rangers traded him to the Yankees. Unfortunately, he swooned in the Bronx, hitting .160/.303/.404 after the deal, 95 wRC+. He couldn’t quite correct course this year, as his first 82 games led to a .159/.282/.339 line and 82 wRC+ before the Yanks flipped him to the Dodgers at the deadline. The move to Hollywood didn’t change much, as he hit .162/.277/.393 as a Dodger for a wRC+ of 91.

Though those sub-Mendoza batting averages are certainly unpleasant to the eye, there’s plenty of reason to think he could get the train back on the tracks. For one thing, he’s still young, having just turned 29 last month. He also still knocks the snot out of the ball, as his hard hit percentage was in the 94th percentile in 2022, his barrel rate in the 98th and his max exit velocity 89th. The upcoming rules banning defensive shifts are likely to help him out as well, since he bats from the left side. According to Statcast, Gallo is shifted in 90% of his plate appearances, one of the 20 highest such rates in the league.

Even if he can’t bounce back at the plate, he can still be a valuable player due to his strong defense. He’s been given a positive grade in the outfield by Defensive Runs Saved in each season of his career, while Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average only gave him a negative number in 2022. For his outfield work as a whole, he has 43 DRS, 19 UZR and 7 OAA. Even though his bat was subpar all year in 2022, he was still worth 0.6 wins above replacement, in the eyes of FanGraphs. In 2021, when he was good at the plate with Texas but bad with the Yanks, he was worth 4.2 fWAR.

For the Twins, Gallo should slot into one of the outfield corners, with Byron Buxton in center. This only adds to a cluttered outfield mix, as the club has many options on its roster. It was reported last week that the club is getting trade interest in Max Kepler, as they also have Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Garlick, Gilberto Celestino, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner and Mark Contreras in their outfield mix. Some of those players can also play the infield, but it’s quite the crowded dance floor. With Gallo now added into the mix, it would seem to make a trade of Kepler or someone else more likely.

The Twins should still have payroll space available, as most of their offseason has been geared around a pursuit of Carlos Correa. The club reportedly made him an offer of $285MM over 10 years, or $28.5MM per season, though he instead signed with the Giants for $350MM over 13 years. The Twins have now given $11MM to Gallo instead, taking a chance that he can rediscover some of his previous form in a new environment. This move brings the club’s payroll up to $118MM, per Roster Resource. The club’s franchise record for an Opening Day payroll was the $134MM figure they ran out in 2022, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Assuming they’re willing to spend at similar levels this year, they still have about $16MM to work with, though Kepler will have an $8.5MM salary in 2023 as well as a $1MM buyout on a $10MM club option. Moving him could create some extra payroll space unless they also take on some salary in the trade.

Despite unexpectedly landing a star like Correa for 2022, the Twins disappointed by finishing 78-84, 14 games back of the Guardians in the American League Central. They will now have to try to figure out how to be better without Correa in 2023. Better health would be one way, as they suffered an incredible number of injuries in 2022. Another path might be to reallocate his $35.1MM salary into multiple players and hope for surplus value, with Gallo now one of them.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported that Gallo and the Twins agreed at $11MM. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the one-year agreement.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Agree To Sign Justin Turner

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6:41PM: Another breakdown is provided by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, who reports that Turner will earn $15MM in 2023, and then $7.7MM in 2024 if he exercises his player option.  Another $1MM is available to Turner in incentive bonuses in 2023, as he can unlock a series of $200K bonuses if he reaches at least 480 plate appearances.

6:01PM: Alex Speier of The Boston Globe has a different set of contract numbers, reporting that Turner will get only $8.3MM in 2023 and then $11.4MM in 2024 if he exercises the player option.  Unless is a signing bonus or buyout also attached to the deal, Speier’s report would indicate that Turner is only receiving $19.7MM in guaranteed salary.  The $8.3MM figure in 2023 in particular looks like a very nice bargain for the Red Sox on what could well end up being a one-year commitment to a 38-year-old player.

5:26PM: Turner will earn $14MM in 2023, Heyman reports, and the 2024 player option is worth $8MM.

4:54PM: The Red Sox have agreed to a deal with infielder Justin Turner, according to ESPN’s Joon Lee and Jeff Passan (Twitter links).  The two-year contract will pay Turner slightly less than $22MM, and Turner can opt out of the deal following the 2023 season.  Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter links) reported earlier today that Turner and the Sox were “looking close” to working out a contract, and that Boston was “heavily” pursuing Turner.  Michael Marino of Fantrax reported yesterday that Turner and the Sox were in talks.  Turner is represented by Vayner Sports.

The Marlins, Diamondbacks, Twins, and Dodgers are the other teams publicly known to have some interest in Turner, and Miami made Turner an offer earlier this week.  Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald described the Marlins’ offer as “competitive,” and though the exact details of the offer weren’t known, Heyman wrote that the Marlins seemed open to giving Turner the multi-year deal he is seeking in free agency.

Turner (who is entering his age-38 season) did find that multi-year pact, though at a significant drop in average annual value from the $17MM he received in his previous two-year deal with the Dodgers.  MLBTR projected Turner for only one guaranteed year, but for $14MM.  The year-to-year breakdown of the new contract isn’t yet known, and the opt-out could indicate that Turner’s camp might essentially view this deal as a one-year pact, with an eye towards getting a larger multi-year contract next after on the heels of a big platform year at Fenway Park.

That said, it isn’t as though Turner underachieved in 2022, as he posted a strong 123 wRC+ after batting .278/.350/.438 with 13 homers over 532 plate appearances with the Dodgers.  However, given how Turner’s usual offseason routine was thrown off-kilter was the lockout and the shortened Spring Training, he might well imagine that he could’ve hit much better had it not been for a very slow start.  Turner had only a .611 OPS over his first 243 PA of the year, but then caught fire with a .940 OPS over his last 289 PA.

Despite this production and Turner’s long track record of success over nine seasons in Los Angeles, the Dodgers opted to decline their $16MM club option on Turner for 2023, instead buying him out for $2MM.  The move was seemingly made to give the Dodgers some extra flexibility in regards to their payroll and luxury tax situation, as the Dodgers could conceivably use any of Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, or prospect Miguel Vargas at third base.  While president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman repeatedly stated that the door was still open for a possible reunion with Turner, the Dodgers’ signing of J.D. Martinez yesterday seemed to hint that L.A. had moved on.

As it turned out, the Dodgers and Red Sox will unofficially swap veteran hitters, with Martinez heading to Los Angeles and Turner coming to Boston.  Turner brings more defensive utility than Martinez, as Turner still saw quite a bit of action at third base last season, basically splitting his time between third and DH.  Rafael Devers of course has priority at the hot corner in Boston, but the Red Sox could now use Turner at third base when Devers (a subpar defender) is given a DH day of his own.  Turner hasn’t played at first base since 2016, but he could also conceivably get some time at the cold corner as a right-handed hitting complement to rookie Triston Casas.

Xander Bogaerts’ departure to the Padres has led to a lot of hard feelings from Red Sox Nation directed towards ownership and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom.  Though Bogaerts is certainly a major loss, Bloom’s plan is to fill the void with multiple players, as Bloom has stated that he wanted to add roughly 7-9 new faces to the roster.  That long list of needs has now been partially filled by Turner, Masataka Yoshida, and relievers Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Joely Rodriguez.

It would seem like starting pitching, catching, and the outfield remain on Bloom’s checklist, given the other players the Red Sox have at least checked in on this winter.  But with Turner, the club reinforcements the corner infield/DH mix that Boston first looked to address by making a push for Jose Abreu, before Abreu signed with the Astros.  The Red Sox made some room at first base by designing Eric Hosmer for assignment earlier this week, and though Hosmer was essentially a free player since the Padres were covering almost all of his remaining salary, the Sox were looking for either a more productive bat, or at least to more firmly clear a path for top prospect Casas.

After surpassing the luxury tax threshold in 2022, the Red Sox are thus far well under the $233MM threshold.  That leaves Bloom with some opportunity to perhaps stay under the tax line, though given how Bloom and ownership were willing to pay the tax for even a rather remote shot at a playoff berth last year, one would imagine the Red Sox wouldn’t balk at paying another tax penalty for the right upside.  Many of the offseason’s top free agents have already come off the board, but the Sox could still pursue other upgrades on the trade market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Dodgers Sign J.D. Martinez

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The Dodgers have agreed to a one-year contract with J.D. Martinez, FanSided’s Robert Murray reports (Twitter link), pending a physical.  The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that Martinez will receive $10MM.  Martinez is represented by the Boras Corporation.

There hasn’t been much public buzz about Martinez’s trip through free agency, as just earlier today, another Heyman report about the Red Sox possibly having interest in re-signing the veteran slugger marked the first team linked to Martinez since he hit the open market.  While Martinez didn’t have many known suitors, the Dodgers were operating quietly, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that L.A. “targeted Martinez early in free agency.”  According to The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya, the Dodgers also had interest in Martinez prior to last summer’s trade deadline.

Martinez will now end up in Los Angeles after all, and be reunited with a few familiar faces.  Former Red Sox teammate Mookie Betts is now a fixture at Dodger Stadium, of course, and Martinez has a long history with Dodgers hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc.  It was Martinez’s work with Van Scoyoc in the 2013-14 offseason that helped get his career on track, and turned Martinez into one of baseball’s better hitters of the last decade.

Since those first fateful sessions with Van Scoyoc and Craig Wallenbrock, Martinez has hit .295/.362/.547 with 258 homers over 4916 plate appearances with the Tigers, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox.  That production led to five All-Star appearances, three Silver Slugger Awards, a key role on Boston’s 2018 World Series championship team, and one big free agent payday in the form of Martinez’s five-year, $110MM contract with the Red Sox in the 2017-18 offseason.

The 2020 season was something of an outlier for Martinez, as he struggled badly in the shortened season and was open with how the COVID-19 dugout protocols interrupted his usual routine.  With that year perhaps simply a writeoff due to unusual circumstances, 2022 marked the first sign of decline in Martinez’s production, even if his 119 wRC+ over 596 PA was still solidly above the league average.  Martinez still hit .274/.341/.448, but his homer total (16), Isolated Power figure (.174) and slugging percentage were all his lowest in a regulation-sized season since 2013.  In addition, Martinez’s hard-hit percentage dropped off sharply from his career norms, even if his 41.7% total was still in the 60th percentile of all batters.

On paper, a move from Fenway Park to Dodger Stadium isn’t ideal for a player looking to regain his power stroke.  However, the change of scenery and a reunion with Van Scoyoc makes Martinez into a very interesting bounce-back candidate for 2023.  Even if he “only” has another season in the neighborhood of 119 wRC+, the Dodgers will happily take that kind of offensive upgrade within a lineup that has already lost Trea Turner and Cody Bellinger to free agency.

2022 marked the first season that Martinez played exclusively as a designated hitter, and that will surely be his primary role in Los Angeles even if he does pick up the glove for an occasional appearance as a corner outfielder.  Martinez doesn’t bring the defensive versatility that the Dodgers usually prefer, but the club has enough other versatile players that the overall roster flexibility won’t be much hurt by Martinez getting the bulk of DH at-bats. Max Muncy will now mostly toggle between second and third base, with Chris Taylor also capable of playing either position and prospect Miguel Vargas in line for more playing time at third base.  Gavin Lux, meanwhile, is slated to move from second base to replace Turner as the everyday shortstop.

The addition of Martinez creates an obvious question about whether or not free agent Justin Turner has played his last game in Dodger blue.  Heyman tweets that the Dodgers still have interest in Turner, who has also drawn interest from such teams as the Marlins and Diamondbacks this winter.  If Turner was re-signed, L.A. could slot Turner in at third base, moving Muncy to second base and keeping Taylor primarily as an outfielder.  Vargas would be the odd man out in this scenario, though the Dodgers may prefer to either bring him along slowly, or rely on more experienced players as the club chases another World Series ring.

Of course, there has also been a sense that the Dodgers are willing to lean more heavily than usual on Vargas and other up-and-comers in 2023, given how the team might be looking to duck under the $233MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold.  Martinez’s $10MM salary bumps the Dodgers’ tax number to roughly $210.3MM, as per Roster Resource.  It still leaves L.A. with more room to spend, but Trevor Bauer’s appeal of his two-year suspension looms large, as an arbiter is expected to rule on the appeal at some point before the end of January.  If the Dodgers have to end up paying some or all of the two years’ worth of salary wiped out by Bauer’s suspension, it could put them near or over the CBT line yet again.

To this end, Martinez’s contract is relatively inexpensive enough that it isn’t necessarily a hint in either direction about how the Dodgers might feel the arbiter will rule.  With that appeal still an X-factor for the remainder of the Dodgers’ winter business, they might’ve felt the investment in Martinez was still worth making, given his appeal and comeback potential.

The one-year length is also somewhat notable, as MLBTR projected Martinez for a two-year, $30MM pact.  It could be that Martinez accepted the shorter deal in order to play for a contender and to reunite with Betts and Van Scoyoc, or he and agent Scott Boras could view this as something of a pillow contract.  If and when Martinez does rebound from his 2022 season, it would put Martinez in line for a larger multi-year pact next winter, even as he’s entering his age-36 season.  The Dodgers have yet to ink a player to a multi-year deal this winter, as Martinez, Noah Syndergaard, Shelby Miller, and the re-signed Clayton Kershaw are only signed through the 2023 campaign.

Mets Sign Kodai Senga

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TODAY: The Mets officially announced Senga’s deal.

DECEMBER 10: The Mets have agreed to a five-year, $75MM deal with right-hander Kodai Senga, SNY’s Andy Martino reports (Twitter links).  Senga’s contract also has no-trade protection and an opt-out clause following the 2025 season, as per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter).  The deal will become official when Senga passes a physical.  Senga is represented by the Wasserman Agency.

The contract figure exactly matches the projection from MLBTR, as Senga ranked 11th on the list of the offseason’s Top 50 Free Agents.  There is no further posting fee involved in the Mets’ costs, since Senga became a full free agent after exercising an opt-out clause in his contract with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks.

Senga turns 30 in January, and he leaves the Hawks after 11 outstanding seasons.  The righty has a 2.59 ERA, 28.22% strikeout rate, and 9.33% walk rate over 1089 innings at Japan’s highest level.  Senga’s four-pitch arsenal is highlighted by an excellent splitter and a fastball that routinely hits the upper-90s.  Scouting reports indicate that Senga’s control is sometimes inconsistent, but otherwise, many pundits feel his stuff can translate quite well to North American baseball.

It was just over a year ago that Senga signed a new five-year deal with the Hawks, but with the important proviso of the opt-out clause that he was widely expected to use, assuming he amassed the necessary service time needed for full free agency.  That was a key step in the process, as the Hawks (unlike several other NPB teams) don’t make their players available for the NPB/MLB posting system.  In discussing his plan to move to North American baseball, Senga said last year that “as a ballplayer, it’s essential to live my life always aiming higher,” and it can be argued that he more than achieved his goals in Japanese baseball.  The right-hander’s resume includes five Japan Series titles with the Hawks, three NPB All-Star appearances, two placements on the Pacific League’s Best Nine team, and (outside of league play) an Olympic gold medal with Japan’s baseball team in 2021.

Between Senga’s potential and the overall demand for pitching this offseason, it isn’t surprising that multiple teams were monitoring his market.  The Red Sox, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants, Mariners, and Padres were the other clubs known to have interest, and agent Joel Wolfe implied that as many as a dozen MLB teams had checked in on his client.  Multiple five- and six-year offers were on the table for Senga, and while he elected for a five-year option from the Mets, the opt-out allows Senga the possibility of re-entering the market and possibly landing extra years and more money as he enters his age-33 season.

Heading into the offseason, the Mets faced the challenge of a large free agent class that included a star closer (Edwin Diaz) and most of the bullpen altogether, their starting center fielder (Brandon Nimmo), and the majority of their starting rotation in the form of Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker, and Chris Bassitt.  However, with the Winter Meetings only just passed, New York has already addressed most of those holes by re-signing Diaz and Nimmo, and replacing that trio of starters with Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, and now Senga.  If that wasn’t enough, the Mets further bolstered the relief corps by signing David Robertson and acquiring Brooks Raley in a trade from the Rays.

There wasn’t any doubt that owner Steve Cohen was prepared to keep spending in order to keep his 101-game winning team in line to be World Series contenders.  However, the spending spree has just continued to reach record levels, as Roster Resource projects the Mets for a 2023 payroll of roughly $334.68MM, and a luxury tax number of just over $349.5MM.

This not only dwarfs the $233MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold, it even soars past the fourth and highest ($293MM) tier of the CBT.  The fourth tier was instituted in the last collective bargaining agreement as a further penalty for excessive spending, and was unofficially nicknamed the “Steve Cohen Tax” given how the owner made no secret of his intentions to heavily increase payroll.  Since this is the Mets’ second consecutive year of tax overage, they’ll face a two-time repeater penalty, as well as a 90 percent overage tax on any dollar spent beyond the $233MM mark.  This works out to around $104.85MM in tax penalty — according to Fangraphs, 11 teams currently aren’t slated to spend more than $104.85MM on their entire 2023 payrolls.

With the Mets already in uncharted financial territory, even more big moves could possibly be in store for Cohen and GM Billy Eppler.  Since the luxury tax doesn’t appear to be any more than a speed bump to the Amazins’ plans, the club might continue to add high-priced talent, and not even bother with trying to get under the $293MM threshold for any kind of mild lessening of its CBT bill.

On paper, the bullpen looks like it could use some more reinforcement, and catcher also looks like a weaker position except top prospect Francisco Alvarez is expected to get more big league playing time in 2023.  The rotation now looks completely set with Max Scherzer, Verlander, Senga, Quintana, and Carlos Carrasco making up the starting five.  Speculatively, the Mets might even feel comfortable enough in their depth to shop one of their backup starters (i.e. David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Elieser Hernandez) in trade talks with a pitching-needy team.  Or, given the older ages and some of the injury uncertainty surrounding the Mets’ starters, New York might also simply opt to retain as much pitching depth as possible.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Giants Sign Sean Manaea

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DECEMBER 16: The Giants have officially the signing of Manaea.

DECEMBER 12: Lefty Sean Manaea and the Giants have agreed to a two-year, $25MM deal with an opt-out after the 2023 season, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Manaea is represented by the Boras Corporation.

The deal marks a return to the Bay Area for the 30-year-old Manaea, who was traded from Kansas City to Oakland as a prospect at the 2015 trade deadline as part of the Ben Zobrist deal. Manaea debuted for the A’s the following year and was a steady presence in their rotation throughout his six seasons in Oakland, though he did miss most of the 2019 season after undergoing shoulder surgery.

Still, with both his career ERA (3.86) and FIP (3.96) under 4.00, Manaea was a fairly attractive arm to teams searching for rotation help after the lockout ended this spring, and so the A’s shipped him to San Diego along with relief prospect Aaron Holiday to acquire prospects Euribiel Angeles and Adrian Martinez. Things didn’t go so well for Manaea in San Diego, however, as he struggled in 2022, posting an unsightly 4.96 ERA (75 ERA+) in 158 innings that his 4.53 FIP only slightly improves upon.

That rough platform season is likely why Manaea was available to San Francisco, who showed interest in him during last week’s Winter Meetings, at such a low price compared to what we’ve seen from the rest of the mid-rotation market. It’s of course possible that Manaea eschewed a larger guarantee in order to secure a chance to test the market again next offseason, hoping to see his results improve in 2023.

In that regard, the deal is similar to the one the Giants signed Carlos Rodon to last offseason, albeit at a much lower AAV of just $12.5MM compared to Rodon’s $22MM. Manaea may prove to be Rodon’s replacement in a rotation that includes Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, and Anthony DeSclafani, should Rodon ultimately sign elsewhere this offseason. Rodon is known to be seeking a seven-year deal this offseason, with the Cardinals and Yankees among those interested.

While it seems unlikely Manaea can imitate Rodon’s sterling 2022 production in 2023, there’s still reason to believe that Manaea can bounce back from his difficult 2022 in the coming season. His strikeout and walk rates of 23.2% and 7.5%, respectively, are roughly in line with his career norms and were actually slightly above league average last year according to Baseball Savant. And for the season’s first three months, Manaea’s numbers were right in line with his career marks. Through the end of June, he’d posted a 3.92 ERA and 3.76 FIP with a 25.8% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate. Over the final three months of the season, however, Manaea was rocked for an ERA just over 6.00, with a huge portion of the damage coming in a pair of eight-run drubbings at Dodger Stadium.

Manaea’s biggest problem in 2022 was the long ball, as he allowed a whopping 1.65 home runs per nine innings that doubtlessly contributed to his strand rate of just 67.5% — his lowest in any full season of his career. Moving his home games Oracle Park, one of the most difficult ballparks in the majors for home run hitters, should aid Manaea in his bid to return to form in 2023. If Manaea can post a season more in line with his 2021 performance, where he posted a 3.91 ERA/3.66 FIP in his 179 1/3 innings of work, he’ll justify the investment from San Francisco and be in line for a larger deal, more in line with the four-year, $52MM guarantee MLBTR predicted for him this offseason.

With their starting five for 2023 likely set barring another surprise addition, the Giants seem primed to turn their attention to the lineup, which largely struggled in 2022 with the exception of All-Star Joc Pederson, who returned to the Giants by accepting a qualifying offer early in the offseason. San Francisco already added Mitch Haniger but is rumored to be interested in adding a second outfielder, even after missing on pursuits of Aaron Judge, Brandon Nimmo, and Cody Bellinger.

The Giants are also are expected to address an infield that lost Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria to free agency this offseason, while suffering a considerable step back from shortstop Brandon Crawford after his resurgent 2021 season. The Giants reportedly have Carlos Correa as their top option in the free agent shortstop market, with the Twins and Cubs representing possible competition for Correa’s services. San Francisco also seems likely to look to upgrade their relief corps for next season. Earlier, they were rumored to have interest in pairing Kenley Jansen, who signed with the Red Sox, with Camilo Doval at the back of their bullpen, so a pursuit of another back-end bullpen option like Taylor Rogers seems feasible.

Blue Jays To Sign Chris Bassitt

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December 16: Bassit’s deal has now been officially announced by the team, with left-hander Anthony Kay designated for assignment in a corresponding move. The contract is split into three even salaries of $21MM, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The first season will actually be a $3MM signing bonus and $18MM salary, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

December 12: The Blue Jays have agreed to a three-year, $63MM contract with free-agent righty Chris Bassitt, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Bassitt is represented by Meister Sports Management.

In adding Bassitt, the Jays have fortified a rotation that saw Ross Stripling reach free agency, lost Hyun Jin Ryu to Tommy John surgery early in the summer, and experienced substantial struggles from righty Jose Berrios and lefty Yusei Kikuchi in 2022. The ultra-consistent Bassitt will step into the mix behind third-place Cy Young finisher Alek Manoah and ninth-place finisher Kevin Gausman, with Berrios and Kikuchi likely to follow.

Bassitt, 34 in February, is a late-bloomer who didn’t establish himself as a consistent big league rotation piece until his age-29 season — partly due to Tommy John surgery wiping out the bulk of his 2016 season and all of his 2017 campaign. However, since a 2019 breakout with the A’s, he’s been among the sport’s most effective arms. In that time, Bassitt carries a sharp 3.31 ERA with a strong 23.1% strikeout rate, a tidy 6.7% walk rate and a 44.3% ground ball rate that’s a bit better than average.

Though Bassitt’s results have been excellent, he hasn’t quite yet solidified himself as a 30-start workhorse, although that’s not necessarily through any fault of his own. He missed the first few weeks of the 2019 season due to a leg contusion he suffered late in a spring training game but came back to make 28 appearances (25 starts) of 3.81 ERA ball. In 2020, he made 11 starts and tallied 63 innings during the pandemic-shortened 60-game schedule.

Bassitt looked well on his way to a career-best season in 2021 but was interrupted by one of the most frightening scenes in recent baseball memory, when he took a 100 mph line-drive off his face. The right-hander immediately dropped into a heap on the mound and had to be carted off the field with a towel covering his face. While there was originally some concern of long-term vision problems, Bassitt incredibly escaped with “only” fractures in his cheekbone and jawbone, with no further damage being revealed on a subsequent CT scan and no long-term vision issues. Bassitt not only avoided a worst-case scenario but returned from surgery just six weeks later and pitched 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball across two appearances to close out the season.

Traded to the Mets as part of the Athletics’ fire sale following the 2021 season — Oakland acquired righties J.T. Ginn and Adam Oller in the deal — Bassitt made a career-high 30 starts and reached a career-high 181 2/3 innings in New York. He also averaged better than six innings per start, turned in a career-best 48.8% ground-ball rate and recorded a 3.42 ERA with fielding-independent marks to match in what’ll now likely be his lone season in Queens.

The Mets made Bassitt a $19.65MM qualifying offer, which he unsurprisingly rejected, recognizing the opportunity for just this type of lucrative multi-year deal. By signing him to this contract, which lands right in line with the three-year, $60MM predicted by MLBTR at the outset of the offseason, the Blue Jays will be required to forfeit their second-highest pick in next summer’s draft. They’ll also see the cap on their international bonus pool for amateur free agents reduced by $500K.

That’s all of minimal concern to the Blue Jays, who are clearly in win-now mode as they look to keep pace in one of the game’s most competitive divisions. Adding Bassitt is a large step toward that end — one that ostensibly aligns with a push to improve the team’s run-prevention, perhaps at the expense of some offensive thunder.

Toronto kicked off its winter by trading its final year of club control over Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners — a deal that netted them an under-the-radar but high-end reliever, Erik Swanson, and a fairly well regarded pitching prospect, Adam Macko. The Jays remained largely quiet in the weeks to come, but just this weekend struck a deal with longtime Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier — one of the premier defensive players in the sport (when healthy). Of course, staying on the field has been difficult for the oft-injured Kiermaier and his devil-may-care approach to defense in center; he’s currently on the mend from season-ending hip surgery.

While the financial specifics of Kiermaier’s contract have yet to come to light, the sequence of moves will surely bring the Jays up to a franchise-record payroll. Bassitt alone brings their projected payroll a bit north of $200MM — already a club record — and Roster Resource projects their luxury-tax ledger to check in a bit north of $225MM. It’s possible that Kiermaier alone will push them to the $233MM first tier of luxury penalization, which would mark the first time the Blue Jays have crossed that barrier.

Of course, the entire picture could still change — at least to some extent. Toronto is also in the market for a left-handed bat to add to an near-entirely right-handed lineup, and the Jays’ front office has reportedly been willing to listen to trade offers on its trio of MLB-caliber catchers: Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno. Free agents Michael Brantley and Michael Conforto are among the most obvious fits, but the Jays could also ship one-third of that catching triumvirate out as part of a deal to acquire a younger left-handed bat and/or additional reinforcements to a bullpen that could still benefit from an arm or two.

However the remainder of the offseason plays out, Bassitt’s addition to a pair of righties who generated some Cy Young love in 2022 should give the Jays a formidable rotation, even if none of Berrios, Kikuchi or sixth starter/swingman Mitch White bound back in 2023. Not only will the Jays be strong on a per-inning basis, but the combination of Manoah, Gausman and Bassitt have all averaged better than 5 2/3 innings per start in recent years, which should go a long way toward helping keep the team’s bullpen fresh.

Berrios, at his best, has been similar — averaging six-plus innings per outing in 2018, 2019 and 2021. However,, the 2022 season was a wildly uncharacteristic one for Berrios, who in many ways paralleled Bassitt in terms of consistent, year-to-year results prior to his first full campaign in Toronto. If any of Bassitt, Kikuchi or White can turn in a strong showing this coming season, Toronto’s rotation could very well rank among the best and deepest in Major League Baseball.

Athletics Sign Trevor May, Designate Cody Thomas

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1:08pm: May will be guaranteed $7MM on the deal, ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets. He can earn an additional $500K worth of incentives.

1:02pm: The Athletics have signed veteran right-hander Trevor May to a one-year contract, the team announced Friday. May is represented by the VC Sports Group. Outfielder Cody Thomas was designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

May, 33, will head to the A’s in search of a rebound campaign after an injury-plagued 2022 showing with the Mets. The 6’5″ righty missed three months of the season due to a triceps injury that seemed to hamper him on the mound, as May’s 5.04 ERA in 25 innings was his worst mark since the 2016 season. Even with those rough bottom-line results, however, May retained his velocity (96.2 mph average fastball) and posted a strong 27% strikeout rate against a solid 8.1% walk rate.

From 2018-21, May was quietly one of the top strikeout arms in the league, logging 175 2/3 innings of 3.33 ERA ball as a setup man for the Twins. In that time, May’s 32.6% strikeout rate ranked 13th among 204 qualified relievers, while his 15.1% swinging-strike rate ranked 20th. He coupled that knack for missing bats with a solid 8.6% walk rate, all of which helped May pile up 46 holds and 11 saves as he went from low-leverage innings to a frequent late-inning option for the Twins and the Mets — the latter of whom signed him to a two-year, $15.5MM free-agent deal in the 2020-21 offseason.

May will look to bounce back into form with the A’s, who have no set closer in place at the moment. Given his salary and experience, May should get frequent opportunities in high-leverage spots for Oakland, be it as a ninth-inning option or as a member of manager Mark Kotsay’s setup corps. May immediately becomes the most seasoned arm in the Oakland bullpen, as prior to his arrival the A’s had just one reliever with even two years of Major League service time: lefty A.J. Puk. In addition to May and Puk, the A’s have Zach Jackson, Dany Jimenez, Domingo Acevedo and Sam Moll likely ticketed for bullpen roles. Given the inexperienced nature of that group, it stands to reason that May could be one of multiple relief additions for the A’s this winter.

May is the third free-agent signing for the low-budget A’s in as many weeks, joining infielders Aledmys Diaz (two years, $14.5MM) and Jace Peterson (two years, $9.5MM) as newcomers. Any of the three could become viable trade chips this summer, but May’s track record and status as a one-year signee makes him seem like a particularly plausible summer trade candidate.

The addition of that trio pushes Oakland’s payroll projection to a still (very) modest $51MM. That, somewhat incredibly, is still an upgrade over last year’s Opening Day payroll (just shy of $48MM), but there figures to be some additional spending ahead for the A’s, who could still upgrade in the rotation, bullpen and outfield, among other areas.

As for the 28-year-old Thomas, he made his big league debut in 2022 but only appeared in 10 games and tallied 32 plate appearances, during which he batted .267/.313/.267. He slashed a hearty .289/.363/.665 with 18 homers in just 245 Triple-A plate appearances in 2021, but Thomas missed nearly the entire 2022 season after undergoing spring surgery to repair his Achilles tendon. His plus raw power and that huge 2021 showing in Triple-A might be enough to pique another team’s interest, and the A’s will have a week to trade him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers.

Dodgers To Sign Noah Syndergaard To One-Year Deal

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December 16: The Dodgers have made it official, announcing the signing. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic provides details on the incentives. Syndergaard will earn a $500K bonus for reaching 130, 150 and 170 innings pitched.

December 14: The Dodgers and right-hander Noah Syndergaard are in agreement on a one-year contract that will see him make $13MM with $1.5MM in incentives available. He’ll reportedly unlock a $500K bonus for reaching each of 130, 150 and 170 innings. Syndergaard is represented by CAA Sports.

Syndergaard, 30, was once one of the best pitchers in the majors. In 2016, he tossed 183 2/3 innings with a 2.60 ERA, 29.3% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate and 51.2% ground ball rate. He was worth 6.0 wins above replacement that year in the estimation of FanGraphs, third in the majors among pitchers with only Clayton Kershaw and José Fernández ahead of him. That was the highlight of a stretch from 2015 to 2019 in which he tossed 716 innings with a 3.31 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 49.1% ground ball rate.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to be himself over the past few years, as he required Tommy John surgery in March of 2020. That prevented him from pitching at all in that season and he also hit a few setbacks in 2021, ultimately limited to tossing just two innings late in the year. Despite that lengthy layoff, the Mets extended a qualifying offer to him after that season, which he rejected in order to sign with the Angels on a one-year, $21MM deal.

2022 was good but not great for Syndergaard. He stayed healthy enough to make 24 starts and one relief appearance, logging 134 2/3 innings. That included a midseason trade to the Phillies, whose World Series run allowed him to toss another 8 1/3 innings in the postseason. His 3.94 ERA was not spectacular, though it was solid enough. However, his fastball averaged “just” 94.5 mph after averaging 98.2 mph from 2015 to 2018. He struck out just 16.8% of batters he faced, a huge drop-off from his earlier marks. He still showed excellent control, walking just 5.5% of batters faced, and posted a 42.8% ground ball rate that was right around league average. But the overpowering “Thor” from the previous decade didn’t seem present.

MLBTR predicted that Syndergaard would be able to secure a three-year, $36MM contract, an average annual value of $12MM. Instead, he has opted for a one-year “prove it” deal for a second consecutive season. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that Syndergaard had larger multi-year offers for more money from other teams but preferred to spend one year with the Dodgers and return to the open market again next winter.

The Dodgers have definitely preferred short-term deals and they have another one here. Last year, they signed Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney to one-year pacts worth $8MM and $8.5MM, respectively. They each went on to have very successful seasons, in different ways, that led to larger guarantees once they returned to the open market. Anderson got $39MM over three years from the Angels while Heaney got $25MM over two years from the Rangers, plus incentives and the ability to opt-out after the first season of the deal. Syndergaard has settled for a significantly lower salary than he got from the Angels a year ago, when he hardly pitched in the previous two seasons, but it seems he and the Dodgers are hoping this is a gamble that will pay off one year from now. Broadly speaking, the track record for pitchers in the second year after Tommy John surgery is stronger than in the first, which could help both parties win this bet.

For the Dodgers, this bolsters a rotation that was already strong but had its share of uncertainty. Syndergaard will slot in next to Julio Urías, Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May. Those four are also very good pitchers, but the group comes with injury concerns. Kershaw hasn’t been able to throw 130 innings in a season since 2019 due to various ailments. May just came back from Tommy John surgery late in 2022 and only made six starts on the year. Gonsolin jumped from swingman to starter in 2022 but dealt with a forearm strain down the stretch. Adding Syndergaard gives them an extra arm to get through the season and will reduce the need to rely on depth options like Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove and Andre Jackson. It’s possible that Walker Buehler could contribute later in the year, but it’s not a guarantee after he underwent Tommy John surgery in August.

Financially, this deal brings the Dodgers’ payroll up to $185MM, per Roster Resource. That’s still well shy of the Opening Day figure they had in 2022, which was $281MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. However, it’s been reported that the Dodgers are hoping to reset their luxury tax status this year. The competitive balance tax features escalating penalties for teams that pay it in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers paid in 2021 and 2022 and would be a third-time payor if they did so again in 2023, but they could go into 2024 as a “first-time” payor by limboing under the line in the coming season. Roster Resource pegs their current CBT figure at $201MM. That’s more than $30MM under the lowest tax threshold of $233MM, though there’s a chance Trevor Bauer’s suspension could be overturned, putting his contract back on the books and leaving the club’s CBT figure right around that threshold. A decision on that matter is expected in the next month.

In terms of the market for starting pitchers, Syndergaard is the latest of many dominoes to fall in the past couple of weeks. Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, Jose Quintana, Zach Eflin and Mike Clevinger have all come off the board recently. For teams still interested in starting pitching, Carlos Rodón is clear top option available, followed by Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Johnny Cueto, Corey Kluber, Drew Smyly and others. Syndergaard’s name hadn’t been connected to many teams this offseason, though the Orioles had a Zoom call with him earlier this month.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the Dodgers and Syndergaard were in agreement. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic first reported that it was a one-year deal. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first had the $13MM salary and incentives. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times first added the $1.5MM value of those incentives, with Ardaya further reporting the exact breakdown of those bonuses.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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