Dodgers Acquire Enrique Hernandez
Enrique Hernandez is back with the Dodgers. Los Angeles announced they’ve acquired the utilityman (along with cash considerations) from the Red Sox for relievers Nick Robertson and Justin Hagenman. Boston is reportedly paying down $2.5MM of the approximate $3.6MM remaining on Hernandez’s contract.
Hernandez, 31, is struggling through one of the worst seasons of his career, batting just .222/.279/.320 in 323 plate appearances. The offseason injury of Trevor Story — which required elbow surgery — prompted the Sox to move Hernandez from center field to shortstop. The results weren’t pretty, with Hernandez returning to a position he’d barely played since 2018 and posting some of the lowest defensive grades of any player at any position (-6 Defensive Runs Saved, -13 Outs Above Average in just 484 innings).
The extent to which the defensive struggles also impacted Hernandez’s mindset at the plate can’t be known, but his production hasn’t dipped to this level since the 2016 season. He’s hitting .260 against left-handed pitching — albeit with a lowly .314 OBP and .338 slugging percentage — but has been a nonfactor against right-handed pitching (.209/.266/.314).
Struggles on both sides of the ball notwithstanding, Hernandez is a career .259/.346/.465 hitter against southpaws. The Dodgers will hope that a return to the team he called home for the majority of his career can bring about a turnaround at the plate and/or on the field. Los Angeles has hit well against lefties as a team, but that’s generally been in spite of poor production from a cast of outfielders that has looked lost against southpaws.
All of David Peralta, Trayce Thompson and Jason Heyward have struggled in that regard. James Outman is getting on base at a .366 pace against lefties but not hitting for power and striking out at a 34% clip. Chris Taylor has gotten on base at a lowly .268 rate but at least hits lefties for power.
There’s no guarantee that Hernandez will improve the team’s overall production against southpaws, but he’s a low-cost roll of the dice as a bench player who’s had success in just this type of limited role before — with this very team, no less. Given that the Dodgers have been cycling through journeyman like Yonny Hernandez and Jake Marisnick on the bench, there’s some sense to seeking lower-cost stability. Hernandez figures to be a boon in the clubhouse at the very least, and any big early hits following the swap will clearly be well-received by a fanbase with which he was popular during his last tenure. There’s minimal risk in displacing Hernandez, though the Dodger faithful will surely be hoping this trade is merely a footnote among a larger slate of deadline transactions rather than a focal point of the front office’s approach to upgrading the roster.
For the Red Sox, with Story nearing a return, they’ll subtract Hernandez from their glut of middle-infield and outfield options. Jarren Duran‘s emergence in center field put a serious dent in Hernandez’s role with the team — particularly with Masataka Yoshida and Alex Verdugo locked into the corners. Yu Chang is a more versatile infield defender, meanwhile, and the Sox apparently prefer to continue giving the more controllable Christian Arroyo opportunities over Hernandez — a pending free agent playing on a one-year, $10MM contract extension he signed last winter.
Per Roster Resource, the Dodgers had a $228MM payroll and $245MM luxury-tax bill prior to the trade. Tacking on roughly $1.1MM won’t put them anywhere near the third tier of luxury-tax penalization, which begins at $273MM and is the point at which teams see their top pick in the following year’s draft pushed back by 10 spots. As a third-time luxury tax offender in the midst of the first penalty bracket, the Dodgers would pay a 50% dollar-for-dollar tax on all overages. As such, Hernandez’s remaining $1.1MM actually amounts to about $1.65MM in terms of total expenditure.
In return for picking up the bulk of the tab, Boston lands a couple pitchers who add desired right-handed middle relief depth. Robertson, 25, is on the 40-man roster and has made nine big league appearances for Los Angeles this season. The rookie righty has allowed 10 runs (seven earned) over his first 10 1/3 frames. He’s fanned 13 against four walks, though, missing bats at a decent 11.4% clip. Robertson is a fastball-changeup pitcher who has averaged a little under 95 MPH on his heater in his brief MLB look.
He’s having an excellent year in Triple-A. Over 28 1/3 innings with the Dodgers’ top affiliate in Oklahoma City, the 6’6″ hurler owns a 2.54 ERA. Robertson has punched out an excellent 37.5% of batters faced at the top minor league level, where he’s also inducing grounders on half the batted balls he allows. The former seventh-round pick owns a 3.54 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate over parts of four minor league campaigns. He’ll start his Boston tenure on optional assignment to Triple-A Worcester but could be recalled to work out of the big league bullpen at any point.
Hagenman has never played in the majors. Like Robertson, he’s having a strong year in Triple-A. Through 55 innings spread over 25 appearances, the 26-year-old righty has a 2.78 ERA. He’s punching hitters out at a solid 27% clip while keeping his walks to a tidy 5% rate. The Penn State product went unselected in last year’s Rule 5 draft after posting a 6.08 ERA in Triple-A; he’d be eligible for the Rule 5 again next winter but has a good chance to earn a spot on the Sox’s 40-man roster before then after his much better second season at the top minor league level.
David Vassegh of SportsNet Los Angeles noted this afternoon the Sox and Dodgers were discussing Hernandez trades. Ken Rosenthal and Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic first reported the Dodgers were acquiring Hernandez. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported the Red Sox would receive two upper minors relief pitchers. Chris Cotillo of MassLive first suggested Robertson and Hagenman were potentially involved in the deal. Tom Caron of NESN confirmed Hagenman’s inclusion, while Jeff Passan of ESPN first confirmed the package was Robertson and Hagenman. Speier was first to report the cash considerations.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Cardinals, Jordan Hicks Discussing Extension
The Cardinals are exploring a multi-year contract extension with closer Jordan Hicks, reports Katie Woo of the Athletic. Woo suggests there’s a good chance a deal can be finalized within the next day. An impending free agent, the hard-throwing righty profiles as one of the top bullpen trade candidates this summer. Obviously, an extension in advance of next Tuesday’s trade deadline would take him off the market.
Hicks, 27 in September, is amidst one of the better seasons of his career. He owns a 3.67 ERA across 41 2/3 innings in 40 appearances. He’s striking hitters out at a personal-best 31.2% rate while inducing grounders on a huge 58.2% of batted balls. Hicks and Twins’ star Jhoan Durán are the only relievers (minimum 30 innings) with a strikeout rate north of 30% and a ground-ball rate exceeding 55%.
That outlier combination of whiffs and grounders is built on velocity almost unmatched around the league. Hicks averages an eye-popping 100.5 MPH on the sinker that serves as his go-to offering. Only Durán and Aroldis Chapman throw harder.
Hicks hasn’t found the same level of success that Durán and Chapman have managed at their best, however. The St. Louis hurler has allowed just under four earned runs per nine innings over 219 1/3 career frames. That’s mostly a reflection of well below-average control. He’s walking just under 13% of opponents this season and has dished out free passes at a 13.2% clip for his career.
Various health concerns also undercut him for a while after a promising debut. Hicks combined for just 38 2/3 innings between 2019-21. He underwent Tommy John surgery midway through the ’19 season. Unlikely to return until the tail end of 2020 regardless, Hicks (who has Type 1 diabetes) opted out of playing that year because of COVID-19 concerns. He battled renewed elbow discomfort the next season and was limited to just 10 appearances. He missed a month between May and June last year because of a flexor issue in his forearm but has avoided the injured list this season.
Even with the health history and bouts of wildness, Hicks would be a sensible trade target for contenders seeking bullpen help. He’s a high-octane arm who has stepped back into a high-leverage role for St. Louis, picking up eight saves and six holds. The Cards clearly value him enough to consider keeping him around beyond this season, though it remains to be seen if a deal will get across the finish line. Woo unsurprisingly notes that the 45-56 club would very likely trade Hicks if they don’t reach an extension in the coming days.
To be clear, the dialogue with Hicks’ camp is not a sign that St. Louis is walking back its forthcoming sell off. Woo reiterates that the Cards plan to trade Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote this morning. The Cardinals had not had any extension dialogue with Montgomery’s or Flaherty’s camps before the All-Star Break, Woo writes. Both starters are impending free agents.
Montgomery would be a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer, so the Cards could at least ensure a compensatory draft choice if he departs as a free agent. They’re likely to receive a more compelling prospect package for one of the top starters available within the next few days, though. Flaherty is less likely to receive the QO (which Hicks also wouldn’t get), so the Cards likely wouldn’t get any compensation if those players were neither traded nor extended.
Additionally, Woo reports that the Cardinals are finding trade interest in each of Chris Stratton, Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley. Stratton is an obvious trade candidate as an impending free agent middle reliever. There’s less urgency to move the latter two arms, as both can stick around beyond this season. Gallegos is under contract for $5.5MM next year, while his deal has a $6.5MM club option for 2025. Helsley is eligible for arbitration through the ’25 season and making a modest $2.15MM this season.
It’s sensible for St. Louis to at least consider offers, although it’d be an odd time to move Helsley. Gallegos has had a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the past five seasons. He carries a 3.92 mark with slightly above-average strikeout and walk numbers in 41 1/3 innings this year.
Helsley, owner of a fastball that sits in the upper 90s, has a 3.20 ERA with a 32% strikeout percentage in 25 frames on the season. He’s been down since June 12 with a forearm strain and was just transferred to the 60-day injured list yesterday, officially ruling him out into the second week of August. Players on the IL can still be traded, so a deal is possible. Still, it stands to reason other clubs will be wary of offering a prospect package commensurate with Helsley’s peak value at a time when there’s notable health uncertainty.
Shohei Ohtani Drawing Widespread Trade Interest
The biggest question of this year’s trade deadline is whether or not the Angels will trade Shohei Ohtani. Unsurprisingly, several rival clubs are interested in acquiring his services, with Jeff Passan of ESPN connecting him to the Rangers, Dodgers, Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays. That’s in addition to reporting from yesterday connecting him to the Diamondbacks and Orioles.
The fact that several clubs are interested in Ohtani is hardly shocking, given that the superstar has played so well in recent years to make it a legitimate question as to whether he’s the greatest player of all time. He’s hit at least 34 home runs in each of the past three seasons, having already hit 36 this year for the league lead with still a few months to go. His overall batting line of .302/.398/.674 amounts to a wRC+ of 184, which also leads all major league hitters. In addition to that, he’s thrown 408 innings as a pitcher since the start of 2021 with a 2.98 ERA, including a 3.71 ERA in his 19 starts this year.
Given the unprecedented nature of his performance, it would be a shock if any contender weren’t interested in him, so it stands to reason that several of them are reportedly on the phone lines. Whether Ohtani can actually be pried loose from the Angels is an open question, however. Recent reporting has suggested that the club will be listening to offers but that a deal is still considered unlikely. Ohtani is an impending free agent but the Halos aren’t completely buried in the standings. Their 51-49 record has them 4.5 games behind the Blue Jays for the final playoff spot, but with the Yankees and Red Sox in between. FanGraphs pegs their playoff odds at 13.7% while Baseball Prospectus puts them at 13.2%.
Rival clubs will only be able to acquire a few months of Ohtani’s services, but the offers will likely still be robust. Since a player like Ohtani has never previously existed, it’s hard to know exactly how much clubs would be willing to relinquish in order to acquire him. But since he’s the most impactful individual player that any club could conceivably add, it’s possible the bidding goes to unexpected levels. Beyond his on-field talents, there would also be opportunities for increased ratings and merchandise sales, not to mention the ability to try to negotiate an extension with the two-way player. It seems highly unlikely he would forego the open market at this point, but the opportunity to start the conversation early surely has appeal.
The Rangers make a ton of sense for Ohtani, in that their rotation has lost Jacob deGrom and Jake Odorizzi to season-ending injuries. They also don’t have an everyday designated hitter and could easily accommodate Ohtani in their lineup. They are currently leading the American League West but the Astros are just two games back and Ohtani could go a long way to helping them fend off Houston. However, since they are in the same division as the Angels, lining up on a trade could be difficult. The Halos may not want to watch Ohtani thrive with their rivals, while the Rangers may have some hesitation about looking across the dugout at their former prospects for the next decade or so.
The Dodgers also make plenty of sense from a roster perspective. They currently have five starters on the injured list, including Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Walker Buehler, Noah Syndergaard and Ryan Pepiot. That’s forced them to bring up rookies like Bobby Miller, Michael Grove and Emmet Sheehan. The DH slot is usually taken by J.D. Martinez but he can at least play the outfield from time to time, a problem the club would likely be happy to work around. But the Angels may not prefer to send Ohtani across Los Angeles, given the public relations aspect. They and the Dodgers don’t compete in the same division, but they compete for customers and attention in the area, with the Angels usually the second fiddle to the Dodgers. Sending Ohtani to succeed in Dodger blue might be a bitter pill that they’d prefer not to swallow.
The other three clubs also make plenty of sense, given their tight American League East rivalry. The Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays currently occupy the top three spots in the division, separated by just 6.5 games. The Orioles have a 62-38 record but their rotation is clearly the weakest spot. Their starters have a collective 4.51 ERA that puts them in the bottom half of the league. They don’t have a clear DH either, often rotating various players through that spot.
The Rays actually have the strongest rotation ERA in the league, though that number may be skewed by their frequent use of openers. They certainly have a solid foursome in Tyler Glasnow, Shane McClanahan, Zach Eflin and Taj Bradley, but have lost Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen to season-ending surgeries while Josh Fleming seems likely to miss significant time as well. Given their fondness for versatile players, they could easily slot Ohtani into the DH role and move other players around as necessary.
The Jays have some rotation question marks, particularly in the case of Alek Manoah. He struggled badly enough in the beginning on the season to get optioned down to the club’s Florida Complex. He’s since returned and made three starts without much consistency. Hyun Jin Ryu is on a rehab assignment and could be back with the club shortly, rejoining Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi. The Jays use Brandon Belt as designated hitter most of the time but likely wouldn’t mind replacing him with Ohtani and figuring out a solution to that problem. The bigger issue might be their relatively weaker farm system compared to the other clubs listed here, as Passan lists them as a longer shot for that exact reason.
All in all, it’s still unknown how seriously the Angels are entertaining any offers coming their way. It’s important for them to do their due diligence so that they have all the information necessary to make the decision that is best for their organization, but that doesn’t obligate them to make a deal. The club starts a road trip tonight with three in Detroit, three in Toronto and then the first game of a series in Atlanta before the August 1 deadline. It’s possible that the results of those games will push the club in one direction or another, for the most significant decision of this trade deadline and arguably ever.
Cardinals Expect To Move DeJong, Several Pitchers; O’Neill Unlikely To Be Traded
The Cardinals’ logjam in the outfield has been well-documented by now, but one path to alleviating that situation apparently isn’t under consideration at this time; Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that the Cardinals plan to hold onto O’Neill at this year’s deadline.
Elsewhere on the roster, the Cards have made clear to other clubs that they expect to trade starters Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty as well as shortstop Paul DeJong, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. Passan adds Jordan Hicks as a possible trade candidate, and it’s only natural that righty Chris Stratton — another potential free agent — would also be on the block.
Moving the 28-year-old O’Neill at this stage would unequivocally be selling low. The two-time Gold Glove winner and eighth-place finisher in 2021 NL MVP voting has played in just 130 games since Opening Day 2022, batting a paltry (by his standards) .229/.309/.381 in 502 plate appearances along the way. It’s a far cry from O’Neill’s mammoth .286/.352/.560 batting line and 34 homers in 2021.
The Cards control O’Neill through the 2024 season, as he’ll be arbitration-eligible for the final time this offseason. Woo quotes both O’Neill and manager Oli Marmol in a piece that Cards fans, in particular, will want to read. Broadly speaking, the organization believes an emphasis on routine and collaborative communication can help O’Neill remain on the field more regularly (though that makes the decision to buck his routine by placing him in center field early in the season seem particularly curious).
O’Neill is one of several outfielders vying for playing time in St. Louis. Lars Nootbaar has become entrenched in center field, and top prospect Jordan Walker is currently patrolling right field. O’Neill’s return pushed former top prospect Dylan Carlson to a bench role, and there’s been ample reporting and speculation on the possibility of a Carlson trade looming on the horizon. First baseman/outfielder and utilitymen extraordinaire Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman also factor into the outfield mix — at times being pushed there by Nolan Gorman‘s presence at second base.
The Cards would also be selling low on Carlson in many ways, though the 24-year-old switch-hitter’s remaining three seasons of club control beyond the current year give him more appeal than O’Neill’s one remaining year. Carlson’s ability to play all three outfield spots — center field, in particular — at a high level could also increase the chances of landing direly needed controllable pitching in a trade. O’Neill certainly isn’t likely to command that type of return on the heels of two injury-plagued seasons; he only just returned from a 60-day IL stint thanks to a back strain.
The likely trades of Montgomery and Flaherty have been discussed ad nauseum by now. Both are free agents at season’s end. Montgomery is the more valuable arm at present, touting a 3.37 ERA, 21.7% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 45.2% grounder rate in 115 innings. He’d be a veritable lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer, so the Cardinals figure to insist on greater value than a 2024 compensatory pick in return. He’s being $10.01MM in 2023.
Flaherty looked like a burgeoning ace in 2019 but has seen several recent seasons ruined by injury. He’s been healthy in ’23, pitching 104 2/3 innings of 4.49 ERA ball. His 22.2% strikeout rate is roughly average, but his 11.3% walk rate is a glaring red flag. He’s three years younger than Montgomery and earning roughly half the salary ($5.4MM) in 2023, however.
DeJong’s status as a likely trade target registers as a clear bonus for the Cards. Entering the season, he didn’t even appear like a lock to make the roster, having slashed just .182/.269/.352 in 190 games from 2021-22. But DeJong has enjoyed a rebound season in ’23, hitting .237/.304/.424 (101 wRC+) with his typical brand of plus defense. With about $3.29MM remaining on his contract (plus a $2MM buyout on next year’s $12.5MM option), DeJong now seems affordable and productive enough to be a viable trade candidate — particularly if the Cardinals help out financially in any sense. DeJong’s bat has cooled after a torrid start, but his overall batting line is about league average, he’s shown some power and he’s played good defense.
Both Hicks and Stratton are natural trade candidates, too. Hicks is likely more appealing and costlier to acquire, given his youth and triple-digit heater. The 26-year-old is averaging better than 100 mph on his sinker and has a 1.88 ERA dating back to early May, punching out batters at a gaudy 31.4% of his hitters with an 8.5% walk rate and mammoth 66.7% grounder rate. Stratton, 33 next month, has a 4.38 ERA with better peripheral marks (27% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate, 3.01 FIP, 3.37 SIERA).
In any trade, St. Louis is eyeing near-MLB-ready pitching, Passan adds. That, again, is hardly a surprise and has long been speculated upon, given the team’s lack of rotation clarity beyond the current season. Both Montgomery and Flaherty are free agents. Adam Wainwright is retiring. Steven Matz and Matthew Liberatore have struggled.
Many of the names in question wouldn’t fetch a close-to-the-Majors arm in a straight-up swap, but someone like DeJong or Stratton could potentially be packaged with Flaherty or Hicks to improve the Cards’ return. Either Montgomery or certainly Carlson on his own could feasibly fetch immediate but unproven pitching help — Montgomery’s status as a rental notwithstanding. For instance, the Cards themselves traded away a big league-ready arm last summer when they shipped Johan Oviedo to the division-rival Pirates in order to acquire Stratton and Jose Quintana, who was then a rental player. Oviedo has struggled in July but notched a 4.06 ERA through his first 16 starts and is controllable through the 2027 season.
Braves Acquire Pierce Johnson
The Braves announced that they have acquired right-hander Pierce Johnson from the Rockies, sending pitching prospects Victor Vodnik and Tanner Gordon the other way. Left-hander Lucas Luetge was designated for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster for Johnson.
Johnson, 32, signed a one-year, $5MM deal with the Rockies in the offseason. He was coming off a strong three-year stretch with the Padres wherein he made 102 appearances with a 3.39 earned run average and 32.2% strikeout rate. His 11.3% walk rate was on the high side but it was a good performance overall.
When Daniel Bard opened this year on the injured list, that opened the door for Johnson to take the closer’s role in Denver. Unfortunately, he didn’t have ideal results in that role. He had an ERA of 7.50 in early June when the club removed him from the closer position. He’s fared much better since that time, posting a 3.60 ERA in 15 innings, striking out 36.2% of opponents.
Johnson’s ERA for the year is still high at 6.00 and he’s still issuing walks at a high rate. But he’s had improved results recently and has been able to work around those free passes in the past. Pitching for the Rockies might have played a role in his results as well, as his 16.7% rate of fly balls turning into home runs is far higher than any previous season in his career. Perhaps he’ll be able to put his rough patch from earlier this year behind him, something that the decision makers in Atlanta clearly believe is possible.
Atlanta doesn’t explicitly need bullpen upgrades, as their relievers have a collective 3.50 ERA that’s second only to the Yankees among big league clubs. But with a lead of 11.5 games in the National League East, they’re as close to a lock for the postseason as any club in the majors, making it sensible to seek any and all upgrades for the playoffs.
The right-hander signed with the Padres after a stint in Japan with the Hanshin Tigers. Players coming from overseas leagues generally get language in their contracts that allows them to circumvent the normal service time rules. That’s why Johnson was able to become a free agent this past offseason despite having between three and four years of service time. He’ll finish this year with between four and five years of service but will be ticketed for free agency again at season’s end.
The Rockies have generally been one of the most reluctant clubs when it comes to trading away established big league players at the deadline. In recent years, they’ve given extensions to players like Bard and C.J. Cron at times when outside observers expected them to be dealt. Neither Trevor Story nor Jon Gray were moved as impending free agents, leaving the club to settle for a compensatory draft pick after Story rejected a qualifying offer and signed with the Red Sox, while Gray’s departure left them completely empty-handed.
That seems to have been a symptom of the organization having a belief that their true talent has been stronger than the results, but their 39-60 record has them in last place in the National League this year. With the club now poised to finish below .500 for a fifth straight season, it seems they are opening up to do a bit more selling this time around, with manager Bud Black recently hinting as much. That means Johnson could be the first of many similar moves for the club, who could potentially move players like Cron, Randal Grichuk, Jurickson Profar, Brad Hand and others.
For now, they’ve already added a couple of young arms to their system. Vodnik, 23, was selected by Atlanta in the 14th round of the 2018 draft. He split last year between Double-A and Triple-A, posting a combined 2.34 ERA in 34 2/3 relief innings. He struck out 31.5% of batters but walked 12.8%. He’s been back in Double-A this year with a 3.10 ERA, 32.6% strikeout rate and 14.5% walk rate through 40 2/3 innings. He’s currently listed as Atlanta’s #17 prospect at Baseball America.
Gordon, 25, was a sixth-round pick in 2019. He’s been working as a starter in the minors, posting a 4.64 ERA last year, mostly in Double-A. He has a 5.86 ERA this year between Double-A and Triple-A, though a 51.9% strand rate is probably inflating that. He’s struck out 20.5% of opponents while walking just 6.8% and has a 4.25 FIP. Both of these young pitchers will be eligible for selection in the upcoming Rule 5 draft if not added to Colorado’s 40-man roster.
In addition to parting with those prospects, the club is bumping Luetge from the roster. This is the second time he’s been designated for assignment this year, but the first one resulted in the southpaw accepting an outright assignment and getting his contract selected again. He had an awful 10.24 ERA prior to his first DFA but threw two scoreless innings since getting added back to the roster. Nonetheless, he now finds himself in DFA limbo yet again.
Atlanta will now have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers. Since he has more than three years of service time, he could reject another outright assignment and elect free agency. But since he has less than five years of service time, doing so would mean forfeiting what remains of his $1.5MM salary for this year. It’s possible that the same sequence of events happens as after his last DFA, with Luetge clearing waivers and accepting an outright to Triple-A. But perhaps someone takes a chance on his past results, as he had an ERA under 2.75 in each of the two previous seasons with the Yankees.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter links) reported the details before the official announcement.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Reds Reportedly Willing To Trade Jonathan India
The Reds have told other teams that they are willing to trade second baseman Jonathan India, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, in order to obtain young, controllable starting pitching. This marks a shift from a couple of months ago, when the club was reported to be disinclined to trading him.
The change in attitude is surprising, as India was awarded Rookie of the Year honors in the National League less than two years ago, taking that trophy in 2021. But there are also some reasons why it’s a logical pivot for the club. For one thing, the club has vaulted itself into contention this year, ahead of the expectations of just about everyone. They were 26-29 at the time of that report from June 1 that said they were disinclined to move India, but they are now up to 55-46 and just half a game behind the Brewers in the National League Central.
That ascent has been fueled by a parade of infield prospects coming up to the majors and succeeding this year. Spencer Steer made his debut last year and cracked this year’s Opening Day roster. He’s seized an everyday role by hitting .277/.363/.461 for a wRC+ of 118, a breakout that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently looked at in more detail. Elly De La Cruz has cooled off a bit after a scorching hot start but is still a menace on the basepaths. Matt McLain is hitting .305/.371/.528 for a wRC+ of 137 while providing above-average middle infield defense.Christian Encarnacion-Strand was recently promoted after demolishing Triple-A pitching and has held his own in the majors through seven games. In addition to those youngers, veteran Joey Votto has also provided a jolt since returning from the injured list not too long ago.
The combination of those performances is a huge reason why the club is faring so well this year, but also has the side effect of crowding out their position player mix. Steer was playing third earlier in the season but moved to first a bit more when De La Cruz came up. With Votto off the injured list and Encarnacion-Strand in the mix at first as well, Steer has also seen some time in left field, joining an outfield mix that includes TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley, Will Benson and Nick Senzel.
As all of that has been going on, India has cooled off from a hot start. He was hitting .282/.369/.426 through the end of May for a wRC+ of 112, which is when it was reported that the Reds weren’t planning to move him. It seemed like India was bouncing back from an injury-marred 2022 season where he hit .249/.327/.378 for a 95 wRC+, getting closer to his Rookie of the Year form from 2021 where he hit .269/.376/.459 and earned a wRC+ of 120.
But since the calendar flipped to June, he’s posted a diminished line of .214/.299/.393, which translated to an 83 wRC+. That’s brought his season-long line down to .251/.338/.411 and his wRC+ to 99, just a hair below league average for the season as a whole.
Teams generally shouldn’t wildly change their player evaluations based on a couple of months, and some bad luck has probably been impacting India’s results anyhow. He has a .228 batting average on balls in play since the start of June, well below the .329 mark he had at the end of May. But he might still end up the odd man out in Cincinnati given the success of all the aforementioned players. If India were subtracted from the picture, the club could still have an infield of Steer, De La Cruz, McLain and Encarnacion-Strand/Votto from left to right. Senzel and Kevin Newman can serve as the depth pieces, though the latter is currently on the injured list due to gastritis.
India has only played second base in his major league career, generally getting subpar grades at that spot, and brings a bit less versatility than most of the club’s other infield options. But he would still figure to have plenty of trade value based on his track record. His struggles last year coincided with multiple trips to the injured list due to hamstring issues and he seemed to be back on track here in 2023 before his recent dip. He’s also still young and cheap, having exactly two years of major league service time coming into the current campaign. That means he’ll finish this year at the three-year mark and qualify for arbitration for the first time, with free agency not slated until after 2026.
This year’s trade deadline seems like it will be unique, with so many clubs hovering near contention due to the expanded postseason and some weak divisions. That’s led to widespread speculation that there will be more so-called “baseball trades” wherein two contending clubs each trade win-now pieces, subtracting from an area of surplus in order to address an area of need. Perhaps a different season would have seen more trade rumors surrounding a prospect like Noelvi Marte, who is playing well in Triple-A, but the Reds’ theoretical trading partner might prefer an established big leaguer like India.
But the Reds quite clearly need pitching and might have to give up something to get it. Their rotation was supposed to be fronted by Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene but each has been on the injured list for over a month, with returns not likely until August. Other starters like Justin Dunn, Connor Overton and Vladimir Gutierrez are also on the IL, leaving the club with a rotation of Andrew Abbott, Ben Lively, Graham Ashcraft, Brandon Williamson and Luke Weaver. Each of the latter three have an ERA of 4.60 or higher, with Weaver’s all the way up at 7.20 this year. Lively has a 3.88 ERA but hasn’t had a regular role in the majors in years and just recently came off an IL stint due to a pectoral strain. Abbott has been great this year but his career consists of just nine total starts.
There’s plenty of question marks in there so the Reds will be looking to add pitching, with general manager Nick Krall having admitted long ago that arms will be a target for them this summer. The fact that they are willing to consider India in such talks is notable but doesn’t necessarily mean he’s a lock to be moved. They will first have to line up on a deal with a club that needs a second baseman and also has controllable pitching to move.
The Dodgers would be one speculative fit since they have dealt with various challenges in the middle infield. Gavin Lux required knee surgery during the spring and isn’t expected back at all this year. Chris Taylor also missed significant time while Miguel Rojas has hardly hit, which forced the club to move Mookie Betts in from his customary right field position to play both middle infield spots. They have plenty of the young and controllable starters that the Reds seek but are currently using it themselves. With starters like Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May and Noah Syndergaard on the IL, they have rookies Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan and Michael Grove currently in their rotation.
It would be a similar story in trying to line up with other clubs. Most contenders are looking to add pitching at this time of year, not subtract it. Young and controllable pitching is generally the toughest to pry loose. The Yankees traded Jordan Montgomery for Harrison Bader last year, but that was when the lefty had just a year and a half of club control remaining. Even if there is a club willing to deal a controllable pitcher, they would also need to have a bit of a hole at second and believe in India getting past his recent slump. Time will tell whether anything comes together but it’s an interesting turnaround for the Reds given where things were just a few months ago, when the club seemed to be rebuilding and India felt like a core piece.
Nationals, #2 Overall Pick Dylan Crews Agree To Terms
The Nationals have agreed to terms with second overall pick Dylan Crews, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). The Talk Nats blog suggested earlier this week the framework of a deal was in place, pending a physical (on Twitter). The specific signing bonus is unclear, though Heyman indicates it’ll come in around $9MM.
That’s right in line with the selection’s $8.99MM slot value. It’s very likely that’ll go down as the second-highest bonus in this year’s class. Paul Skenes landed a record $9.2MM upon going first overall to the Pirates. The Skenes/Crews duo became the first pair of college teammates to ever go 1-2 in the MLB draft.
Crews, a right-handed hitting outfielder, has been regarded as a top amateur talent going back to high school. He went to LSU after teams declined to meet his bonus demands in the 2020 draft. Crews had a monster career for the Tigers, posting an OPS north of 1.100 in all three seasons while playing in college baseball’s top conference.
Regarded as a potential first overall pick throughout the 2023 season, Crews more than met expectations. He raked a .426/.567/.713 clip over 344 plate appearances as a junior. He connected on 18 home runs, walked at an elite 20.6% clip and kept his strikeouts to a 13.4% rate. Crews won the Golden Spikes Award as college baseball’s top performer and helped LSU to a national championship.
Going into the draft, he was still very much in the running for the first pick. Each of Baseball America, Keith Law of the Athletic, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, and MLB Pipeline rated Crews the #1 or #2 player in the class. He topped the pre-draft rankings at BA and The Athletic. Pittsburgh ultimately elected for the potential top-of-the-rotation starter in Skenes. Washington nabbed Crews at #2.
The 6’1″ outfielder is credited with a potential plus hit/power combination. He’s likely to begin his career in center field. Evaluators suggest he might eventually be bumped to right field but should be an above-average to plus corner outfielder if that happens. It’s difficult to find fault with much in his profile. Crews would likely have gone first overall in most draft classes, but Skenes is widely regarded as the best college pitching prospect in more than a decade.
Baseball America slots Crews as the sport’s #3 overall prospect behind Jackson Holliday and Jackson Chourio. He’s one slot ahead of fellow Washington outfielder James Wood (and two places above Skenes). The Nats will hope for Crews and Wood to anchor their outfields of the future once they pull out of their ongoing rebuild.
Diamondbacks Have Shown Interest In Lucas Giolito
The Diamondbacks are among the teams to have shown interest in White Sox starter Lucas Giolito, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. It’s a sensible match, given that Giolito is one of the top trade candidates this summer and the D’Backs have a need in their rotation.
The White Sox are 41-57, which places them nine games back of the division lead even in the weak American League Central. The playoff odds at FanGraphs have them down to a 1.5% chance of leapfrogging the Tigers, Guardians and Twins in order to take the crown. With just over a week to go until the August 1 deadline, it seems fair to expect them to make a few deals aimed at improving their chances in future seasons. Recent reporting has indicated the club is willing to consider deals on all players except for Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jiménez, Dylan Cease and Andrew Vaughn.
Giolito would be one of their most logical trade chips, given that he is an impending free agent and a potential playoff starter for an acquiring club. MLBTR recently placed him in the #1 slot on a list of top deadline trade candidates, a reflection of both his likelihood to be traded and his appeal to other clubs.
The righty made 72 starts over the 2019 to 2021 seasons, posting a 3.47 earned run average in that time. That figure spiked to 4.90 last year but Giolito has brought it back down 3.96 here in 2023. Across those five seasons, he’s struck out 28.5% of hitters while walking 8.2%. He’s making $10.4MM this year but only about $3.35MM will be left to be paid out at the time of the deadline.
Just about any club in need of starting pitching should have at least some interest in Giolito and he’s already been connected to the Dodgers, while the Reds have reportedly had discussions with the White Sox about their starters, which presumably includes Giolito.
There’s plenty of logic in the Diamondbacks throwing their hat in the ring, given the state of their own rotation. The club has featured a top-heavy rotation this year, with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly doing strong work at the front. Kelly is on the injured list right now due to a calf issue and could return next week, but even if that proves to be the case, that still leaves the D’Backs with plenty of questions behind the Gallen-Kelly duo.
Tommy Henry has a 3.89 ERA but it’s possible he’s lucky to have it, as his .276 batting average on balls in play and 81.1% strand rate are both on the lucky side of average. His 5.07 FIP and 5.23 SIERA suggest some regression may be in store. Ryne Nelson has made 20 starts but with a 4.82 ERA in that time. Zach Davies has a 7.38 ERA for the year and is on the injured list for a second time. Prospect Brandon Pfaadt has been given six starts but has a 9.82 ERA in those.
Despite those rotation issues, the Snakes are 54-43 and currently tied for the top Wild Card spot in the National League, in addition to sitting just two games back of the Dodgers for the division lead. Adding some pitching for the final months of the postseason race would be a logical move, something that general manager Mike Hazen admitted last month.
Although Giolito will be highly in demand, the acquisition cost in terms of the trade return might not be exorbitant since he’s a rental, at least compared to a similar pitcher with multiple years of control. Hazen also recently said that the club will likely be “aggressive” but not “reckless” at the deadline, in terms of which younger players they are willing to give up. Perhaps going after an impending free agent like Giolito would fit that plan.
Whether the Diamondbacks are willing to be aggressive enough to land a pitcher like Giolito remains to be seen. There have already been a few clubs publicly connected to him and there are surely plenty of others who have called the White Sox. For any club that comes up short, some of the other rental starters that could be available include Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Michael Lorenzen and many others.
Blue Jays Acquire Génesis Cabrera From Cardinals
The Blue Jays have acquired left-hander Génesis Cabrera from the Cardinals, reports Katie Woo of The Athletic. The Cards had designated Cabrera for assignment earlier this week. In exchange, the Cards received minor league catcher Sammy Hernandez. The Jays will need to open a spot on their 40-man roster to accommodate Cabrera.
Cabrera, 26, once looked to be establishing himself as an impact relief lefty at the big league level. Across the 2020 and 2021 seasons, he made 90 appearances for the Cards with a 3.41 earned run average. He struck out 27.8% of batters faced and kept the ball on the ground at a 40.4% clip but also allowed walks at a 13.3% rate. Despite the obvious control issues, the punchouts were enough for him to move into a high-leverage role, recording 28 holds in 2021.
Things haven’t gone as smoothly for him since then, however. His strikeout rate dropped to 16.5% last year, helping his ERA climb to 4.63. This year, he’s got those strikeouts back, punching out 26.6% of hitters. But it hasn’t led to improved results, as he has a 5.06 ERA on the year. Home runs have become an increasing issue of late, as he allowed eight in the 2019-2021 period, but then eight more last year alone and another six this year.
The Cardinals are having a disappointing season and seem to be bound for some selling between now and the trade deadline. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has been forthright about the club turning its attentions towards 2024, with various trades possible in the days to come. Cabrera got bounced off the roster ahead of time, likely due to his struggles but also because he apparently expressed some frustration with his role in St. Louis.
Despite his poors results of late, there are some logical reasons for the Jays to be interested in taking a shot. Cabrera is averaging 95.8mph on his fastball, a rare trait for southpaws. Statcast data has him in the top 10 in that category among left-handers with at least 500 pitches thrown this year. It’s also possible he has even more in the tank since he was at 97.6mph back in 2021. He also has an option remaining, which will give the Jays the ability to send him in Triple-A if they so desire.
He also relatively cheap, making $950K this season, which is barely above this year’s $720K minimum salary. He can also be retained for future seasons via arbitration, as he began this year with three years and 11 days of service time. That means he’s not slated for free agency until after 2025, and that could even get pushed back by a year if he spends some time on optional assignment. The Cards already optioned him at the start of the season, though he was quickly recalled on April 8 and stayed on the active roster until his recent DFA. If the Jays can help him get back into the form he showed a few years ago or help him rein in his command, he could be a multi-year asset for them.
The Jays have operated with Tim Mayza as their only left-handed reliever this year. He’s having a great season with a 1.10 ERA in 44 appearances, but Cabrera could give them a second option to call upon. They might make additional acquisitions before the trade deadline but Cabrera’s option means he can be a depth piece in the minors, even if he’s squeezed out of the picture at the big league level. The Jays are clear buyers, given that their 54-43 record has them tied with the Astros for the second Wild Card spot in the American League. The nearest non-playoff team, the Red Sox, are three games back of the Jays and Astros at the moment.
For the Cards, this is likely to be the first of many deals they make in the coming days, given their aforementioned seller position. Despite currently enjoying a six-game win streak, they are 8.5 games out of the playoff picture in the National League. They have various impending free agent pitchers that seem likely to be moved, such as Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton, as well as a position-player logjam that could lead to a trade.
For now, they will add Hernandez, a 19-year-old catcher. He was selected by the Jays in the 14th round of last year’s draft and has been playing in the lower levels of their farm system. He’s hit .213/.287/.367 in 42 games across two different levels this year. He hasn’t generally been considered one of the club’s top 30 prospects.
Astros, Rays Showing Interest In Michael Lorenzen
Michael Lorenzen is one of the top rental starting pitchers who could move between now and the August 1 trade deadline. The Rays and Astros are among the contending clubs that have shown interest in the Tigers’ righty, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link).
It stands to reason Tampa Bay and Houston are just two of a number of teams monitoring the market for the Detroit hurler. Lorenzen is having a strong season, working to a 3.49 ERA through 17 starts. He tossed seven scoreless innings to earn a win over the Royals this afternoon and hasn’t allowed a run in any of his past three appearances.
Lorenzen began the season on the injured list after straining his groin in Spring Training. Since returning in the middle of April, he’s been a quality starter for Detroit. He has allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of his 17 outings. While his 19.1% strikeout rate is a couple points below league average, he has kept his walks to a modest 6.5% clip. Lorenzen has negligible platoon splits and mixes four pitches with regularity.
While it’s not the most overpowering profile, the first-time All-Star looks a solid mid-rotation arm for contenders. Tampa Bay and Houston have both made clear they’re surveying the rotation market. The Rays have limited depth behind the front four of Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin and rookie Taj Bradley. They’ve lost Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs for the season and been without southpaw Josh Fleming for an extended stretch.
Tampa Bay has been tied to a number of rental starters. Lance Lynn, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Marcus Stroman (the latter of whom has a $21MM player option for next season) are all reportedly on Tampa Bay’s radar. The Rays seem to be casting a wide net as they look to solidify their final rotation spot in their battle for the AL East title.
It’s a similar story in Houston. Luis Garcia underwent Tommy John surgery, while Lance McCullers Jr. will miss the whole season after recurring forearm issues. José Urquidy has been out since the end of April with shoulder discomfort, though he’s on a rehab stint and expected back soon.
As with the Rays, the Astros have a quality top of the rotation. Framber Valdez headlines a group that also includes Cristian Javier and rookie Hunter Brown. Javier has scuffled of late, which the team has attributed to some fatigue, while Brown is already at 99 1/3 innings after tossing 130 frames last year between the regular season and playoffs. J.P. France and Ronel Blanco have held down the last two spots. Houston general manager Dana Brown has publicly discussed his desire for another arm. The Astros have also been tied to Stroman.
Lorenzen could fit on virtually any contender. He’s playing this season on an $8.5MM salary. Around $2.79MM will remain to be paid out from the deadline onward. Lorenzen tacked on an extra $250K in incentives by passing the 100-inning mark today and would earn a matching amount at 125, 150, 175, 195 and 205 frames.
If he stays healthy, he’s likely to at least get to the 150-175 inning range. Still, the tab for an acquiring team would only be around $3MM. That’s a reasonable figure for mid-rotation production for the stretch run and into the playoffs.
While that all makes Lorenzen a sensible trade target, it’s not a foregone conclusion Detroit sells. Despite being eight games under .500 with a -77 run differential, the Tigers are only five games back of the division-leading Twins in the AL Central.
It’s tough to see this Detroit club making a playoff push — only Oakland and Kansas City have scored fewer runs on the season — but the bleakness of the division leaves the door slightly ajar. President of baseball operations Scott Harris implied last week the team could play well enough to avoid a deadline sell-off, although they could strike a middle ground by dealing Lorenzen while holding onto players who are controllable beyond 2023.