Angels Acquire Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez
The Angels are pushing the chips in. The Halos swung a late-night trade for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López from the White Sox, the teams announced. Prospects Edgar Quero and Ky Bush are going back to Chicago.
Los Angeles declared themselves buyers this evening when they formally took Shohei Ohtani off the trade market. Once they committed to making a push in Ohtani’s final season of club control, there was little reason not to act boldly. They’ve done just that, surrendering two of their top prospects for the top rental starter available and a relief upgrade.
Ironically, Giolito and López both landed with the White Sox in the same trade nearly seven years ago. Both had debuted with the Nationals in 2016 before being included in the Adam Eaton package during that year’s Winter Meetings. They’ve spent the past six-plus seasons on Chicago’s South Side.
Giolito has developed into the more valuable of the duo. After a disastrous 2018 season, the Southern California native blossomed into an upper mid-rotation starter. He has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in four of the past five years, including a 3.79 mark through 121 frames this season.
He has backed up that solid run prevention with above-average peripherals. Giolito is striking out 25.8% of opponents against an 8.3% walk rate. He’s generating swinging strikes on 11.9% of his offerings. It’s a third consecutive season in which he’s been above-average across the board.
Giolito hasn’t quite developed into the ace it seemed he might become when he finished in the top 10 in Cy Young balloting in 2019-20. His average fastball speed is down a tick from those peak seasons, and he’s lost a few whiffs on each of his offerings. Still, the 29-year-old is a clear playoff caliber starter. He averages just under six innings per start while holding opponents to a .232/.301/.430 batting line. Giolito is effective against hitters of either handedness and has essentially avoided any major injuries in his MLB career.
That kind of durability and effectiveness should be a major boost to a Halos’ rotation that entered play Wednesday ranked 20th in the majors in ERA. Ohtani is the one pitcher allowing fewer than four earned runs per nine on the season. Reid Detmers has a 4.38 ERA but a strikeout rate north of 29% that suggests he fits well in the middle of a rotation. Patrick Sandoval and Griffin Canning have been fine back-end arms. Tyler Anderson has underperformed in the first season of a three-year deal, working to a 5.18 ERA. He slots sixth in the Halos’ six-man starting staff, while Giolito’s addition should firmly push Jaime Barria into long relief if the rest of the group stays healthy.
Barria has been more effective out of the bullpen than when pressed into rotation work. Giolito’s acquisition indirectly upgrades the relief corps in that regard, while the addition of López helps the bullpen in a more straightforward way.
The 29-year-old righty moved to relief for good by the start of the 2022 season. He was excellent in that role last year, pitching to a 2.76 ERA across 65 1/3 frames. It has been more of a mixed bag in 2023. López carries a 4.29 ERA in 42 innings. His walks have jumped from a minuscule 4.3% clip last year to a concerning 12.4% rate.
However, the uptick in free passes has been paired with a jump in whiffs. López has punched out a career-best 29.2% of batters faced. He’s picking up swinging strikes on 13.4% of his offerings while averaging 98.3 MPH on his heater and 87.9 MPH on the slider. López is a high-octane arm to pair with Matt Moore as setup options in front of closer Carlos Estévez. The Halos could look for additional ways of bolstering the middle innings mix between now and the August 1 trade deadline.
Both Giolito and López are firmly win-now pieces. Each is an impending free agent. Giolito is arguably the top non-Ohtani starter who’ll hit the open market. He’s on his way to exceeding nine figures. That always made it likely the White Sox — whose franchise-record expenditure is the $75MM Andrew Benintendi pact — would not re-sign him.
A midseason deal, while not unexpected, is a nice boost to Giolito’s eventual earning power. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a qualifying offer. Giolito would obviously have received one had the Sox retained him past the deadline, but he’ll now hit the open market without a signing team needing to forfeit draft capital.
The more immediate benefit, of course, is that both pitchers will get a chance to compete for a postseason spot. The Halos are four games out in the Wild Card race and seven back in the AL West. They’re clearly pushing the chips in for this season and figure to continue to be aggressive in the next few days. Adding corner infield help with Anthony Rendon and Brandon Drury on the shelf and Jared Walsh struggling enough to be optioned to Triple-A makes plenty of sense; to that end, the Halos have reportedly been in touch with the Nationals regarding third baseman Jeimer Candelario.
As part of that all-in mentality, the Angels relinquished a pair of their most talented prospects. Quero is one of the game’s top minor league backstops. The switch-hitter reached Double-A by his 20th birthday and is holding his own in a pitcher-friendly setting. Over 317 plate appearances, Quero owns a .245/.385/.332 batting line. He’s only hit three home runs but is walking at a massive 17% clip while striking out just 16.7% of the time.
That kind of plate discipline is exceptionally rare for a hitter so young. The Cuban-born backstop is the sport’s #61 overall prospect at FanGraphs and 85th at Baseball America. Scouting reports predictably rave about his advanced offensive skills and suggest he has a good chance to be a regular in the long term.
The Halos already have a potential catcher of the future in Logan O’Hoppe. Acquired from the Phillies last summer, O’Hoppe has been limited to 21 big league contests because of a labrum tear in his shoulder. He’s controllable for five seasons beyond this one, though, perhaps making Quero a little more expendable to the organization.
Chicago had no such long-term answer behind the dish. Yasmani Grandal is headed to free agency on the heels of a fine but unexceptional year. It’s probably unreasonable to expect Quero to immediately succeed Grandal as the #1 backstop next season, but it doesn’t seem out of the question he could reach the majors at some point in 2024. That upper minors proximity is surely appealing to a Chicago team reloading for next year.
Bush, a 23-year-old southpaw, was also at Double-A. A second-round pick out of St. Mary’s in 2021, he ranked ninth among Angels’ prospects in Eric Longenhagen’s recent organizational rankings at FanGraphs. Both Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (on Twitter) suggest the 6’6″ hurler has a chance to stick as a starter and praise his slider, though Longenhagen raises concerns about his low-90s fastball. Bush has been a little homer-prone in his first six Double-A starts but is striking out nearly 30% of opponents there.
It’s a strong return for a pair of impending free agents, with Quero the clear headliner. Yet it’s understandable the Angels would part with those players (particularly with O’Hoppe in the fold) to make a push this season. Their aggressiveness extends beyond the prospect capital, as the trade officially pushed them into luxury tax territory.
The Halos were right around the $233MM competitive balance tax threshold before the move. They’re taking on what remains of the respective $10.4MM and $3.625MM arbitration salaries for Giolito and López. That’s around $3.75MM on Giolito and $1.31MM on López. That’ll push their estimated CBT figure to around $238MM pending future additions.
It’s clear owner Arte Moreno will sign off on paying the tax for the first time. The financial penalties of doing so are rather minimal. As a first-time payor, they’ll pay a 20% tax on expenditures between $233MM and $253MM. The tax money they’re taking on with today’s trade is just over $1MM, a marginal amount in comparison to the team’s overall spending.
More notably, surpassing the CBT reduces the draft compensation they’d receive if they lose a qualified free agent. Teams that pay the luxury tax receive a compensation pick after the fourth round if a player rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere. Clubs that stay below the threshold get a compensatory choice between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round.
Ohtani will obviously reject a QO. If the Angels don’t re-sign him, going past the CBT means they’re moving the draft compensation back a couple rounds. That’s a risk worth taking to maximize the chances of getting to the playoffs in Ohtani’s final season of arbitration. The Angels are all-in, and while this’ll probably be their biggest move of deadline season, there’s no reason to think it’s their last.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Angels and White Sox were finalizing a trade of Giolito and López for Quero and Bush.
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Angels, Nationals Have Discussed Jeimer Candelario Trade
The Angels have had talks with the Nationals about third baseman Jeimer Candelario, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). The Halos just pulled off the biggest trade of deadline season thus far and continue to look for ways to upgrade the roster. It’s unclear whether a deal between the clubs is likely to come together.
Candelario, 29, spent several years as the Tigers’ primary third baseman before struggling through a career-worst season in 2022, when he hit just .217/.272/.361 in 124 games. Detroit non-tendered him rather than giving him a raise in what would’ve been his final year of arbitration eligibility, and the Nationals scooped him up on a one-year, $5MM deal in free agency. The gambit could scarcely have worked out better for the Nats.
In 94 games and 398 plate appearances, Candelario has rebounded with a .257/.338/.486 batting line, swatting 16 homers in addition to 29 doubles and a pair of triples. He’s already swiped five bases, a career-high, and should surpass his career-best mark of 19 home runs before long. The switch-hitting Candelario has never been known for his glovework, but he’s posted positive marks at third base in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved (1), Ultimate Zone Rating (2.0) and especially Statcast’s Outs Above Average (6) so far in 2023.
The Halos certainly didn’t foresee themselves in position to be poking around the third base market at any trade deadlines in the near future three years ago, when they signed Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $245MM contract. At the time, they hoped to be adding a perennial MVP candidate into a lineup that already featured MVP-caliber talents Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Rendon garnered MVP votes each season from 2017-19, including a third-place finish in his final season with the Nats before he became a free agent.
Although he was excellent for the Halos in the shortened 2020 season, things haven’t gone well since. Rendon has played in just 148 games since Opening Day 2021, hitting .235/.338/.364 while battling myriad injuries along the way. He’s currently on the shelf with a shin injury. The Angels have already acquired third base options Mike Moustakas and Eduardo Escobar in earlier summer trades, to say nothing of their signing of Brandon Drury as a free agent this past offseason. They’re not necessarily lacking in options at the hot corner, but Candelario would nonetheless provide an affordable, high-quality bat to slot into the lineup. If Rendon were to come back from the injured list and reclaim the third base job, Candelario could certainly fit into the mix at first base; he’s logged 518 career innings at the position.
The Angels sudden, blockbuster acquisition of Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez from the White Sox has already pushed them north of the luxury tax line, so the remaining $1.8MM that Candelario would add to their luxury ledger isn’t likely to be a major deterrent. They’ve already taken Ohtani off the trade market, and the Giolito/Lopez trade — for their two top prospects — only underscores the notion that owner Arte Moreno and GM Perry Minasian are going for broke in Ohtani’s final year of club control. Whether or not a deal involving Candelario comes together, it seems quite likely that the Angels will be in the market for further upgrades in the lineup. At this point, there’s no sense in holding anything back. They’ve committed to pushing in for a 2023 postseason bid, and there’s no turning back.
Angels Take Shohei Ohtani Off Trade Market
10:14pm: An Angels’ official confirmed the team’s plans to retain Ohtani and add to the roster when speaking with Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. “Arte is committed to making a run this season, along with having Angels fans see Ohtani through September and hopefully into October,” the person told Fletcher. “The best way to try to make the postseason is through addition, not subtraction.”
8:53pm: The Angels have decided to take Shohei Ohtani off the trade market, reports Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated. According to Verducci, the Halos determined on Wednesday afternoon they were committed to buying in advance of next Tuesday’s deadline.
Earlier this evening, Robert Murray of FanSided reported the Angels were engaging other teams about adding MLB talent. That’d certainly suggest they were trending towards buying, though Verducci’s report indicates far more definitively that’ll be the case. Verducci writes that adding a starting pitcher and bullpen help are the priorities for the Halos over the next six days.
A slump early in the month — coinciding with a number of injuries, none more notable than the hamate fracture suffered by Mike Trout — led the Halos to at least consider other teams’ overtures on the two-way star. According to Verducci, preliminary talks didn’t result in any momentum towards a deal.
Ohtani briefly appeared in trade rumors at last summer’s deadline as well. Halos’ owner Arte Moreno quickly stepped in to quash that possibility. It stands to reason Moreno was involved in the decision to pull Ohtani from the market this time around, though it’s also worth noting a recent run of strong play has pulled the club back into contention and makes that course of action justifiable from a pure baseball perspective.
Los Angeles has taken seven of their last 10 games, pulling three games above .500. They’re four games out in the Wild Card race (with the Red Sox and Yankees also between them and the final playoff spot, currently held by Toronto). Los Angeles is 6.5 games back of Texas in the AL West.
Barring injury, the 2021 AL MVP should shatter the record for largest contract in MLB history when he hits free agency next winter. Ohtani is amidst one of the best seasons ever, hitting .299/.398/.668 with a league-best 36 home runs while pitching 111 2/3 innings of 3.71 ERA ball.
It is generally expected the eventual free agent megadeal will come from another organization, though the Halos will obviously attempt to make a run at re-signing the game’s best player. If he departs in free agency, they’d recoup a draft choice as compensation. If the Halos don’t exceed the luxury tax this year, that pick would come between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round in the 2024 draft. If the Angels do go past the $233MM tax marker, the compensation pick would fall after the fourth round. Roster Resource presently calculates the club’s CBT figure right at that threshold.
Clearly, the Angels could do far better than that in a prospect return this summer. Yet doing so would’ve more or less waved the white flag on the team’s efforts to snap an eight-year postseason drought. With the playoffs still within reach, it seems the focus is on loading up for a run in what could be Ohtani’s final season in Orange County.
Turning to the Halos’ target areas, bolstering the pitching staff is logical. Their rotation ranks just 20th in ERA, allowing 4.62 earned runs per nine innings. Ohtani is the club’s only starter with an ERA below 4.00. Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval and Griffin Canning have all been fine, with the former’s 29.4% strikeout rate suggesting he has probably deserved better than a 4.38 ERA. The Angels prefer a six-man staff to keep Ohtani’s workload in check and the final two spots haven’t been as effective as anticipated.
Offseason signee Tyler Anderson carries a 5.18 ERA in his first 17 starts as an Angel. José Suarez had a disastrous first month and has been out for a couple months with a shoulder strain. Jaime Barria has been more effective as a multi-inning reliever than when pressed into rotation duty.
The bullpen also ranks 20th in run prevention, sporting a 4.18 ERA. Free agent signings of Carlos Estévez and Matt Moore have worked out brilliantly thus far. That duo and Barria are the only relievers with 10+ frames and an ERA below 3.00, however. José Soriano and Jacob Webb have missed a decent amount of bats (Soriano in particular) but haven’t thrown strikes consistently.
Specific targets for the Halos aren’t clear, though potential trade candidates on the pitching staff have been covered extensively. Jordan Montgomery, Lucas Giolito, Jack Flaherty, Lance Lynn and old friend Michael Lorenzen all look likely to move. Marcus Stroman and Eduardo Rodriguez could be dealt. On the relief front, Scott Barlow, David Robertson, Joe Kelly, Kyle Finnegan and Chris Stratton are among a host of names who could change teams.
Speculatively, the Angels could also use some offensive help. They’ve patched over some infield injuries with early acquisitions of Mike Moustakas and Eduardo Escobar, but first base has been a revolving door all season. Brandon Drury could fit there once he returns from a shoulder contusion, but he’s better suited for a multi-positional infield role. Trout’s injury has pushed Mickey Moniak into unexpected center field work. The former first overall pick has hit exceptionally well to cover for that loss, though, and Verducci writes the Angels expect Trout back by the middle of August.
Until 5:00 pm CST on August 1 passes, other clubs and their fanbases might hold out a small amount of hope about the Halos having a change of heart. Perhaps losing four or all five of their remaining games before the deadline might affect the organization’s thinking. Yet it seems they’re fully committed to buying right now, and Ohtani’s impending free agency means there should be urgency for the front office to strike boldly for upgrades to help that playoff push.
Dodgers Have Shown Interest In Joe Kelly
The Dodgers are among the clubs to express interest in White Sox reliever Joe Kelly, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Unsurprisingly, Murray notes that multiple teams are in the market for the hard-throwing righty.
Kelly is one of the likeliest players to change teams within the next five-plus days. The Sox are a clear seller and will move a few impending free agents by August 1. Kelly isn’t technically a rental, as the Sox hold a $9.5MM option on his services. They’re trending towards a $1MM buyout, though, so a trade to recoup some future value seems almost inevitable.
At first glance, the 35-year-old might not seem an especially appealing trade candidate. He’s sitting on a 4.66 ERA over 30 appearances and has allowed 5.45 earned runs per nine over parts of two seasons in Chicago. There’s a fair bit of intrigue in this year’s underlying marks, though.
Kelly has struck out nearly a third of opposing hitters, while he’s inducing grounders on a massive 56.2% of batted balls. An abnormally low 57.9% left on base rate has propped up his earned run totals, but few pitchers match that combination of punchouts and grounders. While his control has been erratic throughout his career, this season’s 9.4% walk percentage is manageable. An injured list stint earlier in the month for elbow inflammation temporarily threatened his trade candidacy but he was reinstated over the weekend.
As a likely impending free agent reliever, Kelly isn’t going to bring back a franchise-altering return. Yet the Sox shouldn’t have trouble finding a trade partner, offloading some of the $9MM he’s making (around $3.24MM of which is yet to be paid out, not including the option buyout) while bringing back controllable talent.
Kelly is no stranger to the Dodgers, of course. He pitched with L.A. from 2019-21, winning the World Series in the second of those years. The 12-year veteran posted a 3.59 ERA over 105 1/3 regular season innings in Dodger blue and appeared in all three of their postseason runs during that stretch.
The Dodger bullpen ranks 18th in the majors with a 4.13 ERA entering play Wednesday. They’re 11th in strikeout percentage (24.4%) and ground-ball rate (44.7%). Los Angeles is also known to be targeting starting pitching, and they’re one of the teams reportedly in talks with the Sox regarding right-handers Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito. There’s nothing to suggest L.A. is the perceived favorite on any of Kelly, Lynn or Giolito, but it stands to reason the clubs have had at least some dialogue about a potential package deal.
Dodgers, Guardians Swap Amed Rosario For Noah Syndergaard
The Dodgers and Guardians swapped veterans at positions of need. Los Angeles announced they’ve traded starter Noah Syndergaard and cash considerations to Cleveland for infielder/outfielder Amed Rosario. It’s reportedly a cash-neutral transaction, indicating L.A. is sending roughly $1.9MM to cover the difference of what remains on the players’ respective $13MM and $7.8MM salaries.
Essentially, it’s a change of scenery trade between two clubs hoping to balance their rosters for the stretch run. Each of Rosario and Syndergaard will be free agents at season’s end. Neither player was a candidate to receive a qualifying offer — Syndergaard is ineligible for the QO having previously received one in his career, while Rosario simply wasn’t playing well enough.
Rosario’s time in Cleveland wraps up after two and a half seasons. Cleveland acquired the former top prospect from the Mets in the Francisco Lindor blockbuster going into the 2021 campaign. Andrés Giménez has been the best part of that deal for Cleveland, but Rosario has capably held down shortstop for a couple seasons.
The right-handed hitter posted average offensive numbers in each of his first two seasons with the Guardians. He connected on 11 home runs in both years while hitting around .280, though meager walk totals kept his on-base percentage right around league average. Over the two-year stretch, he combined for a .282/.316/.406 line in over 1200 trips to the plate.
Rosario’s third season with the Guardians hasn’t been as productive. In 94 games, he’s hitting .265/.306/.369. That’s largely attributable to a frigid start, as he put up a .233/.280/.327 slash through the end of May. Since the calendar flipped to June, he owns a much more impressive .301/.335/.415 line.
By and large, Rosario’s underlying marks align with his career trajectory. His 5.3% walk rate and 18.7% strikeout percentage are right in line with his career averages. His 42.1% hard contact rate and 88.6 MPH average exit velocity are at the higher end of his overall marks. Middling start aside, Rosario seems mostly the same offensive player he’s been throughout his time in Cleveland — a high-contact hitter with an aggressive approach and fringe power.
That hasn’t been the case on the other side of the ball. Rosario’s defensive ratings have cratered this year. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast have rated him as the worst shortstop in the majors, pegging him somewhere between 12 and 15 runs below average. He has committed the sixth-most errors (11) at the position.
Public defensive metrics have generally pegged Rosario as a below-average defender throughout his career. This year’s marks are a personal-worst, though, and it seems likely the Dodgers will bounce him around the diamond. Rosario has brief experience in the outfield. He’s never played an infield position aside from shortstop, but the majority of shortstop-capable players can kick over to second or third base without issue.
As with Enrique Hernández, whom the Dodgers acquired from the Red Sox last night, Rosario adds a flexible right-handed bat to Dave Roberts’ roster. He has an excellent .304/.346/.475 slash in 463 plate appearances against left-handed pitching dating back to the start of 2021. The Dodgers have been clear about their desire to add some balance to a lineup in which incumbent righty-swinging middle infielders Miguel Rojas and Miguel Vargas have underperformed offensively.
Vargas’ struggles pushed him back to Triple-A. Rojas remains the favorite for shortstop playing time on the strength of his glove. Rosario offers a bat-first alternative at the position who could cut into the playing time for utility types like Chris Taylor and Yonny Hernández. Adding a couple righty-swinging infielders also enables the Dodgers to use Mookie Betts more frequently in the outfield than at second base against lefty pitching, further limiting David Peralta’s and James Outman’s exposure to same-handed arms.
Cleveland figures to turn shortstop over to one of a number of younger players in the upper levels of the organization. Tyler Freeman, Gabriel Arias and Brayan Rocchio are all fairly recent highly-regarded prospects who have reached the big leagues. Freeman, who is currently on the MLB roster, might be the first choice thanks to an excellent .329/.468/.482 showing in Triple-A. He’s a stellar contact hitter who has experience throughout the infield. He’s perhaps better suited for second base, but Giménez could kick across to the left side of the infield.
Arias is also currently on the big league club. He’s viewed as a plus defensive option at shortstop but hasn’t produced much offense in a multi-positional role. In 162 trips to the plate, the right-handed hitter owns a .179/.290/.300 line while striking out more than 32% of the time. Rocchio is in Triple-A, where he has a solid .295/.385/.419 slash over 83 games.
The Guardians are comfortable enough with that group of youngsters to relinquish Rosario in exchange for a buy-low roll of the dice on Syndergaard. The right-hander hasn’t managed to recapture his All-Star form since undergoing Tommy John surgery in advance of the 2020 season. He missed almost all of 2020-21, then returned with a fine but unexceptional 3.94 ERA in 25 appearances between the Angels and Phillies last year.
Los Angeles took a shot on a rebound in free agency. The Dodgers inked Syndergaard to a one-year, $13MM guarantee and installed him into the season-opening rotation. The move didn’t pan out, as he had a rather forgettable 12-start stint in Dodger blue. Through 55 1/3 innings, he posted a 7.16 ERA. A blister on his right index finger sent him to the injured list on June 8 and marked the end of his L.A. tenure.
Syndergaard began a minor league rehab stint two weeks ago. He’s made a couple Triple-A appearances, reaching 77 pitches in a start last Friday. It stands to reason he’ll be able to make a return to a big league rotation in the near future.
A few months ago, the notion of the Guardians trading for a short-term rotation upgrade would’ve seemed far-fetched. Cleveland has been hit hard by injuries, though, losing each of Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill to extended issues. That leaves Aaron Civale and the rookie trio of Gavin Williams, Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee starting games for now.
The Guardians become the latest team hoping to get Syndergaard back on track. He still boasts excellent control, walking fewer than 4% of opposing hitters. Yet the high-octane arsenal that earned him the ‘Thor’ moniker at his peak has dwindled. Syndergaard’s fastball is averaging 92.6 MPH this season, nowhere near the upper-90s of his pre-surgery days. His cutter isn’t missing bats the way his slider once had. Syndergaard has punched out only 15.4% of opposing hitters, a career-low mark that’s more than six percentage points below league average for starters.
The Dodgers hold a 3 1/2 game lead over the Giants in the NL West. Cleveland sits two games behind the Twins in the AL Central. There are presumably more moves on the horizon for both, but they’ll each roll the dice on a veteran having a down year in hopes of getting a spark for the final couple months.
Jeff Passan and Jesse Rogers of ESPN first reported the Dodgers were nearing a deal for Rosario. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic confirmed a Rosario trade was in place, pending medical reviews. Pat Ragazzo of Sports Illustrated reported the Guardians were receiving Syndergaard in return. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report the Dodgers were including cash, which Zack Meisel of the Athletic specified made the deal a wash financially.
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Twins, Marlins Swap Jorge López, Dylan Floro
The Marlins and Twins have swapped right-handed relievers, with Dylan Floro heading to the Twins and Jorge López going to the Marlins, per an announcement from the Twins. Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reported the deal prior to the official announcement.
This appears to be something of a “change of scenery” deal on each end, as both pitchers are having poor results this year compared to their previous bodies of work. López, 30, had been a fairly mediocre starter for many years but thrived in a move to the bullpen with the Orioles last year. He tossed 48 1/3 innings with a 1.68 earned run average, striking out 27.6% of opponents while walking 8.7% and getting grounders on 60% of balls in play.
The O’s still had two and a half years of club control over López at last year’s deadline but decided to sell high, flipping him to the Twins for four young pitchers. That was a questionable move at the time from Baltimore’s perspective since they were above .500 and flirting with contention, yet traded away one of their most effective relievers. But in retrospect, it looks like a big win for the Orioles since one of the four pitchers they got back was Yennier Cano, who’s having a breakout season with a 1.82 ERA through 44 appearances this year.
López, meanwhile, has not been able to maintain his own Baltimore breakout. After the deal last year, he had a 4.37 ERA for the Twins, with all of his peripherals moving in the wrong direction. Things have gotten even worse here in 2023, as has a 5.09 ERA through 35 1/3 innings. His 7.1% walk rate is fine and his 48.6% grounder rate is still solid, but he’s only getting strikeouts at a 17.4% rate. The long ball has also become a problem, as he’s let seven go over the fence already this season after just four last year.
He can still be retained via arbitration for another season but it seems the Twins didn’t have much faith in getting him back on track, as they’ve now swapped him for another struggling reliever, but one who is an impending free agent.
Floro, 32, had a 3.15 career ERA coming into this year, working exclusively as a reliever for the Rays, Cubs, Reds, Dodgers and Marlins. In 277 1/3 innings prior to this year, he struck out 21.2% of opponents, walked 7.5% and kept the ball on the ground at a 51.1% clip. That even included some high-leverage work, as he notched double-digit saves with the Fish in each of the past two seasons.
The results haven’t been as good here in 2023, as his ERA has jumped up to 4.54. It’s possible there’s some bad luck to blame, as his peripherals are actually better than his career marks. He’s striking out 24% of hitters, walking just 6.4% and keeping the ball in the dirt 55.1% of the time. His 2.78 FIP and 3.15 SIERA suggest he’s actually been pretty close to the pitcher he’s always been, with a .397 batting average on balls in play and 62.9% strand rate pushing some extra runs across this year.
Both clubs are contenders this year. The Twins 54-50 and currently hold a two-game lead over the Guardians in the AL Central. The Marlins, meanwhile, are 55-48 and half a game back in the NL Wild Card race. It seems each club feels they can get more out of their new pitcher than they were getting from the old one.
Financially, there’s not a huge difference between the two, though López has an extra year of control. Floro is making $3.9MM this year and is slated for the open market in a few months. López is making $3.525MM and can be retained via arbitration for next year.
It’s been speculated by many observers that this year’s trade deadline might be unique, with the expanded playoffs and some tight divisional races making few clearcut sellers. It’s been suggested that this summer might see more “baseball trades” wherein two contenders swap win-now pieces. This appears to be one such example, with each club relinquishing a struggling reliever in order to take a shot on a different one.
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Astros Activate Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve
The Astros announced Wednesday that outfielder/DH Yordan Alvarez and second baseman Jose Altuve have been reinstated from the injured list. First baseman/outfielder Bligh Madris and infielder David Hensley were optioned to Triple-A in a corresponding pair of moves.
Alvarez, who just turned 26 last month, has cemented himself as one of the sport’s best young hitters in recent seasons. He boasts a .277/.388/.589 slash and 17 homers in just 232 plate appearances this season but has missed more than six weeks due to an oblique strain.
The Astros have posted a solid .252/.323/.433 line as a team even since Alvarez’s injury, but it’s still difficult to overstate just how big a boost his return will provide. Houston general manager Dana Brown has been quite candid about his desire to add a left-handed bat prior to next week’s trade deadline, but Alvarez’s return will at least lessen some of the urgency for such an acquisition.
Altuve has also been on the shelf with an oblique strain, though his wasn’t as severe as the one sustained by Alvarez. He hit the IL nearly a month after his teammate, on July 4, but will nonetheless return on the same day — just three weeks after landing on the shelf.
It’s been an even more frustrating season for Altuve than for Alvarez, from a health standpoint. He missed nearly two months early in the season after suffering a broken thumb during the World Baseball Classic and has only managed to get into the lineup for 32 of the Astros’ games this year. He’s been characteristically excellent when on the field, batting .264/.371/.479 with a career-best 14% walk rate in 143 trips to the plate.
It’s a major pair of returns for Houston that’ll augment the lineup more than any trade might have, but the ‘Stros still figure to be active between now and next Tuesday. In addition to Brown’s stated desire to add a left-handed bat with some defensive versatility, he’s also been open about his hopes to add a starting pitcher and a reliever while trades are still permitted.
MLB Owners Vote To Extend Commissioner Rob Manfred
Major League Baseball’s owners have voted to extend the contract of commissioner Rob Manfred through the 2028 season, reports Evan Drellich of The Athletic. The four-year extension will run through Jan. 25, 2029. The league has since announced the extension via press release.
“It is an honor to serve the best game in the world and to continue the pursuit of strengthening our sport on and off the field,” Manfred said within today’s press release. “This season our players are displaying the most vibrant version of our game, and sports fans are responding in a manner that is great for Major League Baseball’s future. Together, all of us in the game will work toward presenting our sport at its finest and broadening its reach and impact for our loyal fans.”
A new contract for Manfred was seen as a foregone conclusion. Manfred was unanimously approved for a five-year extension when his contract was last up for vote, and he needed only a simple majority to be extended once again. He’s been the commissioner since 2014, when he succeeded the retiring Bud Selig.
“At a critical moment in the history of our game, Commissioner Manfred has listened to our fans and worked closely with our players to improve America’s pastime,” said Mariners chairman John Stanton, who also served as the chair for the meeting in which the vote was held. “Under his leadership, we have been responsive to the fans’ desire for more action and better pace, continued the game’s spirit of innovation, expanded MLB’s role in youth baseball and softball, and beyond. The significant momentum that MLB has built reflects his ongoing initiatives that are advancing the game.”
While Manfred is unpopular with a notable portion of the fanbase — many bristle at recent rule changes, expansion of the playoff format, the commissioner’s past comments calling the World Series trophy a “piece of metal,” etc. — the owners have good reason to extend his contract. Manfred has helmed negotiations of lucrative national television contracts with FOX, Turner Sports and ESPN, in addition to brokering highly profitable streaming deals with Apple and NBC Universal (Peacock). Heading into the 2022 season, Forbes reported that each MLB team was set to receive a hefty $65MM from those national television and streaming deals alone — before even considering gate revenue, local television deals, etc.
Manfred also navigated two of the most challenging period in recent MLB history, representing the owners’ interest along the way during return-to-play negotiations during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and during the recent wave of collective bargaining with the MLB Players Association.
The league implemented what ended up being a 99-day lockout following the 2021 season, but after months of negotiation with the MLBPA, the two sides wound up reaching an agreement on a new collective bargaining agreement spanning the 2022-26 seasons. The eleventh-hour deal was reached in time for a full slate of 162 games to be played last year — this time with a newly expanded 12-team postseason format.
Broadly speaking, the business of baseball is as profitable as ever. Manfred told Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times last year that league revenues were approaching a record $11 billion for the 2022 season. It likely wasn’t coincidental that MLB took the time this morning to highlight how last night’s average MLB attendance was its best non-holiday performance on a Tuesday since 2015 and second-best since 2008. As the sport moves further and further from that shortened 2020 season that was played in the absence of fan attendance, ownership is clearly confident in Manfred’s ability to bring about further revenue growth.
White Sox Discussing Lance Lynn With Rays, Dodgers
11:53am: The Sox and Rays are indeed discussing Lynn, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets, but a deal between the two parties is not yet seen as imminent. The Rays have interest in a number of starters and are in active talks on multiple starting pitchers.
Likewise, the White Sox aren’t locked in on the Rays alone as a potential trade partner for Lynn. Nightengale follows up by tweeting that the Dodgers remain interested in both Lynn and right-hander Lucas Giolito and continue to discuss both with the ChiSox.
With Dustin May out for the season and each of Clayton Kershaw, Ryan Pepiot, Noah Syndergaard and Walker Buehler on the injured list, the Dodgers have a trio of rookies (Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove) behind Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin in the rotation at the moment. All of the Dodgers’ Opening Day rotation members have been on the injured list at some point this season, so it’s only natural for them to explore upgrades — particularly as their collection of young starters continues to push their workloads to previously unreached levels.
9:49am: The White Sox and Rays are in active discussions on a trade regarding right-hander Lance Lynn, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The two teams have been exchanging names of potential minor leaguers in the swap.
Tampa Bay is one of the 10 teams on Lynn’s no-trade list, but talks have apparently advanced to the point where the White Sox have already approached him about the possibility of approving the deal. Nightengale adds that Lynn has informed the team he would waive that no-trade protection for a chance to pitch for a contending Rays club.
Lynn, 36, is in the second season of a two-year, $38MM extension he signed with the White Sox two years ago. The veteran right-hander was a durable an excellent pitcher for the Rangers and ChiSox from 2019-22, pitching to a combined 3.42 ERA with plus strikeout and walk rates in 571 innings during that time, but the 2023 season has been a struggle.
While Lynn is still missing bats at a high level (27.3% strikeout rate, 14% swinging-strike rate), he’s been more homer-prone this season that any point in his lengthy Major League career. The 6’5″ righty has yielded an average of 2.19 homers per nine innings pitched, which has contributed to what would be a career-worst 6.18 ERA on the season.
That mark is unsightly, of course, but Lynn has seen what’s surely an anomalous 21.5% of his fly-balls turn into home runs. That’s more than double his 10.1% career mark and nearly nine percentage points higher than the league average of 12.4%. Homer-to-flyball rate tends to stabilize over larger samples, and any team acquiring Lynn would surely be hoping there’s regression in that regard. That seems inevitable; Lynn’s current 21.5% homer-to-flyball rate would be the fourth-highest mark of any pitcher in the past decade. Furthermore, one can imagine that getting out of the homer-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field would help to alleviate those home run woes.
The Rays didn’t look like a team that’d need to acquire outside help for the rotation early in the year. Tampa Bay began the season in dominant fashion, but the Rays have seen Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery) and Drew Rasmussen (flexor surgery) go down with season-ending injuries. Depth starter Josh Fleming is on the 60-day IL due to an elbow issue.
At present, the Rays are running out a strong quartet of Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin and top prospect Taj Bradley. Lynn would slot into that group and give the Rays an upside play for the final spot in the rotation. At worst, he’d be a durable innings eater who could spare the bullpen and round out the rotation. At best, he could become the Rays’ latest pitching reclamation. Tampa Bay has a reputation for getting the best out of its pitchers — thanks to a combination of its renowned analytics department, advance scouting, coaching and player development — and if the Rays can get Lynn back into his 2019-22 form, he’d be a bona fide playoff-caliber starter.
Lynn’s contract contains an $18MM option for the 2024 season. There’s a $1MM buyout on that provision, making it a net $17MM decision. As it stands, he’s clearly trending toward a buyout, but with a big finish to the season it’s conceivable he could yet play his way into having that option picked up.
That’d be a steep price for the Rays of all teams, but Tampa Bay has shown increased willingness to spend in recent years. The Rays made a legitimate run at signing Freddie Freeman in free agency, reportedly putting forth a six-year offer in the $150MM range. They also extended Glasnow on a deal that’ll pay him $25MM next year and signed shortstop Wander Franco to an 11-year, $182MM deal. Even this past offseason’s signing of Eflin at three years and $40MM was a notable departure from the team’s typical stinginess on the open market.
Lynn is owed about $6.8MM of this year’s $18.5MM salary between now and the end of the season, plus at least that $1MM buyout on the option. Between that salary and his struggles with home runs, his trade value certainly isn’t close to where it might’ve been entering the season, but the Sox could sweeten their return by offering to pay down some or all of the remaining money he’s guaranteed in 2023.
Giants To Promote Marco Luciano
The Giants are planning promote top infield prospect Marco Luciano prior to tonight’s game against the A’s, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. Luciano is already on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding move will only be needed to add him to the club’s active roster.
Luciano, 21, has long been considered one of the game’s top prospects. He was a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport as recently as last year, and is currently considered a consensus top-50 prospect across most services. Scouts are enamored with Luciano’s power potential and bat speed, but have long questioned his hit tool due to an elevated strikeout rate throughout his minor league career. While Luciano’s defense previously raised questions regarding his ability to stick in the infield long-term, with many projecting a move to the outfield in his future, a strong 2023 campaign on that side of the ball has largely alleviated those concerns, indicating he should at least be able to stick at third base if not his native position of shortstop.
Luciano has struggled to stay on the field in recent years due to back troubles, missing ten weeks in 2022 due to the issue and another month this year. When healthy, however, he’s produced at the plate with a .263/.339/.549 slash line with a 121 wRC+ in 57 games at the High-A level last season and a Double-A slash line of .228/.339/.450, good for a wRC+ of 114 in 56 games this year. Luciano’s strikeout rate rose more than 7 points this season, nearly reaching 30% at Double-A, though the youngster managed to mostly make up for the additional whiffs with a massive 14.9% walk rate.
Luciano’s performance at Double-A recently earned him a promotion to the Triple-A level, where he’s slashed an excellent .292/.370/.625 that’s good for a wRC+ of 130 even in the inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League. The Giants, who have struggled to a 9-11 record in July and just snapped a six-game losing streak last night, seemingly view Luciano as a potential spark who can help cover for the injured Thairo Estrada and Brandon Crawford up the middle, roles that currently fall to struggling youngsters Casey Schmitt and Brett Wisely.