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Rays To Sign Zach Eflin To Three-Year Deal

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The Rays are dipping into the free agent pitching market, agreeing to terms with right-hander Zach Eflin on a three-year deal. It’s reportedly a $40MM guarantee for the O’Connell Sports Management client. Eflin will make $11MM in each of the next two seasons, followed by an $18MM salary in 2025. The deal is pending a physical.

Eflin had spent his entire big league career with the Phillies. Originally drafted by the Padres, the Orlando native was dealt to the Dodgers and Phils during his time as a minor leaguer. He reached the majors by the middle of the 2016 campaign, bouncing on and off the MLB roster for the first couple seasons. Eflin struggled during his early big league looks, but he’d settled in as a capable mid-rotation arm by 2018.

That season, he made 24 starts and worked to a 4.36 ERA across 128 innings. That kicked off a remarkably consistent stretch of results. In each of the five seasons between 2018-22, Eflin posted an ERA between 3.97 and 4.36. Aside from a spike in strikeouts during the abbreviated 2020 season, he achieved those 3rd/4th starter results in a similar manner every year. He’s proven an excellent strike-thrower who misses bats at a slightly below-average level but keeps the ball on the ground at a solid clip.

Between 2019-21, Eflin worked to a 4.12 ERA with a slightly below-average 21.4% strikeout rate but a stellar 5.7% walk percentage. He’d been on a similar path to begin this season, posting a 4.37 ERA with a 19.6% strikeout percentage and a 5.3% walk rate through his first 13 starts. At the end of June, he landed on the injured list with a right knee contusion. That cost him over two months. By the time he was ready for reinstatement in early September, the Phils had limited time to build him back to a starter’s workload before year’s end. They expedited his return to the majors by plugging him in short relief. Eflin made seven appearances out of the bullpen during the regular season, then tossed 10 2/3 frames over 10 outings as a high-leverage arm during the Phils’ run to a National League pennant.

While Eflin doesn’t miss many bats, his blend of stellar control and a solid five-pitch mix allowed him to find a fair amount of success in Philadelphia’s hitter-friendly home environment. Against right-handed hitters, he leans primarily on a sinker in the 92-93 MPH range, but he turned to a four-seam fastball more often against lefties. Eflin mixes in a cutter and curveball as his usual secondary offerings, occasionally deploying a slider against righties as well. He rarely turns to a changeup, however, and he’s had his share of issues with left-handed batters. Southpaws have hit Eflin at a .274/.335/.492 clip since the start of 2018, but he’s stifled same-handed hitters to a .255/.291/.398 mark.

Tampa Bay surely has designs on plugging him back into the rotation after a healthy offseason. He’ll step in behind Shane McClanahan and Tyler Glasnow in the pecking order, joining Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs in what looks to be the season-opening starting five. The Rays have one of the sport’s top pitching prospects, Taj Bradley, waiting in the wings after a great season in the upper minors. Shane Baz was expected to seize a rotation job himself, but he’s likely to miss all of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September. Luis Patiño, Yonny Chirinos and Josh Fleming are on hand as rotation or multi-inning relief options for what should again be a strong Tampa Bay pitching staff.

If healthy, Eflin fits nicely into the middle of that group. At the same time, the Rays are placing a bet on a pitcher with a concerning injury history. The knee contusion that cost Eflin a couple months this year was the latest in a line of joint issues that have plagued him since before he began his career. He underwent a pair of surgeries to repair the patellar tendons in both his knees in the summer of 2016. At the time, Eflin acknowledged he’d battled chronic knee pain dating back to adolescence (link via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). He avoided any worrisome injuries for the next few seasons, but he went back under the knife in September 2021 to again repair the patellar tendon in his right knee. That cut his year short, meaning he’s lost chunks of three of the past six seasons to knee issues. There’s real risk in investing in a pitcher who has only once topped 130 MLB innings in a season.

The Rays were willing to look past that to add a pitcher who’s typically effective when healthy. Eflin’s also one of the younger arms available in free agency. He won’t turn 29 until next April, and a pitcher with his age and statistical track record may well have found four years on the open market if not for injury concerns. Tampa Bay wasn’t the only team that valued Eflin in this range, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets the Red Sox had made him the same offer. Eflin elected to join the Rays instead, signing closer to home and avoiding state income tax.

With an $11MM salary for next season, Eflin becomes the highest-paid player on the Tampa Bay roster. He’ll lose that title in 2024, when Glasnow’s salary spikes to $25MM, but he’ll count for a significant portion of a Rays payroll that typically ranks among the league’s lowest. The Rays are now up to around $78MM in projected commitments for 2023, not far off their franchise-record $83MM mark from this past season. The overall $40MM guarantee represents the largest free agent investment in Rays history.

It also easily tops MLBTR’s pre-offseason projection of two years and $22MM for Eflin. The deal narrowly beats the three-year, $39MM guarantee Tyler Anderson received from the Angels last month. Anderson had rejected a qualifying offer and cost the Halos a draft choice. The Phils elected not to qualify Eflin. Philadelphia won’t receive any compensation for his departure, while the Rays won’t lose any picks to add him. To find Eflin’s replacement, Philadelphia can dip into a free agent rotation market that offers a number of options beyond the top trio of Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodón and Justin Verlander. Players like Chris Bassitt, Kodai Senga, Jameson Taillon, Nathan Eovaldi, Noah Syndergaard, Andrew Heaney, Taijuan Walker and Sean Manaea all remain on the market as strong candidates for multi-year deals.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the Rays and Eflin had agreed to a three-year deal. Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the guarantee at $40MM. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported the specific financial breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

NPB’s Hanshin Tigers Post Shintaro Fujinami

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The Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have officially posted right-hander Shintaro Fujinami, according to Yakyu Cosmopolitan.

It was reported back in October that the Tigers planned to post Fujinami. Now that it’s been made official, he and his representatives will have 30 days to secure a major league contract. If a deal is reached, the signing team will also owe money to the Tigers, with that amount being relative to the size of the contract given to Fujinami. Any big league team that signs him would owe the Tigers a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. If he does not reach an agreement with an MLB team, he will return to the Tigers for 2023.

It’s possible that Fujinami will find that there’s a wide variance in the level of interest he gets from major league teams, given the inconsistency he’s shown thus far in his career. He was a highly-touted young arm in his high school days, often compared to Shohei Ohtani as the top names in their draft class. In 2013, he was thrown into the Tigers’ rotation despite being just 19 years old at the time. He ended up throwing 137 2/3 innings with a 2.75 ERA, 126 strikeouts, 44 walks and a couple of hit batters. He continued producing strong results over the next two seasons, tossing 163 innings in 2014 with a 3.53 ERA and then 199 frames in 2015 with a 2.40 ERA.

From that point on, however, control issues put a damper on his performance. He walked 70 batters in 169 innings in 2016 and then gave out 45 free passes in only 57 innings in 2017, getting sent down to the minors. He’s been shuttled between the farm and the big leagues since then, struggling to show enough improved command to keep a regular job. That was still the case in 2022, as he made 25 appearances on the year but only 16 of them were at the NPB’s top level. In those 16 appearances for Hanshin, he logged 66 2/3 innings with a 3.38 ERA, striking out 65 while walking 21 batters. He faced a total of 276 batters, meaning his walk rate was 7.6%, which is actually respectable. For reference, this year’s MLB average was 8.2%. That’s a huge improvement over 2021, where he walked 40 out of 238 batters faced for a rate of 16.8%.

Taking all this into consideration, the 30 MLB clubs will likely be able to reach different conclusions of Fujinami’s value. The most bullish teams can point to his early career success and 101 mph fastball. Despite his long tenure in NPB, he’s just 28 years old, turning 29 in April. He also showed some improved control this season. For those who take the pessimistic side, they could point to the fact that Fujinami hasn’t been able to maintain a consistent level of performance for years.

There’s little doubt that Fujinami has some skills to bring to the table. The question will be how much major league teams believe they can use their tools to harness Fujinami into a useful pitcher in North America. It makes him an intriguing wild card addition to the offseason and we will see how his market plays out over the remainder of the year.

Latest On Yankees’ Offer To Aaron Judge

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The Yankees wasted little time in making a new offer to Aaron Judge following the commencement of the offseason, with general manager Brian Cashman revealing two weeks ago that the team had made an updated offer to the reigning American League MVP. Judge has since met with the Giants, who were also reported to be preparing an offer. The Dodgers are also a reported suitor. Details surrounding Judge’s free agency have been sparse thus far, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the Yankees’ most recent offer was “in the neighborhood of eight years and $300 million.” That’s not a final offer, and the Yankees could increase their numbers if the market necessitates, per the report.

It’s still a ballpark figure, but that general range could potentially give Judge the largest annual value ever secured by a position player. Mike Trout, who inked a 10-year, $360MM extension on top of a standing two-year, $66.5MM commitment with the Angels — currently holds that distinction at $36MM. (Max Scherzer’s $43.3MM AAV is the top mark overall.) Establishing a new AAV record among position players would surely be of interest to Judge, and if the Yankees are truly already in the $300MM ballpark, he’d at least be within striking distance of Bryce Harper’s record for the largest free-agent contract in history ($330MM).

As far as the timing of a potential deal for Judge, it seems as though one could come together in relatively quick fashion. Passan indicates that there’s an expectation a deal could be completed by the end of next week’s Winter Meetings, which take place in San Diego from Dec. 4-7. That meshes with previous reporting from MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, who made similar suggestions on MLB Network when discussing Judge’s meeting with the Giants. SNY’s Andy Martino, meanwhile, writes that it would “be a mild surprise” if Judge doesn’t come away from next week’s meetings with an agreement in hand.

Wherever the present numbers stand, it’s long been clear that Judge’s bold bet on himself this past spring has paid off. Judge declined the Yankees’ best extension offer prior to the season, after which Cashman took the virtually unprecedented step of announcing the terms of the offer: seven years and $213.5MM. That contract would’ve begun with the 2023 season, so Judge appears to have already secured an extra year and upwards of $80-90MM in additional guarantees.

Roster Resource currently projects the Yankees at a bit more than $222MM in luxury obligations. An AAV in the $36-37MM range would bump that number to $258-259MM, setting the stage for a second consecutive season of paying CBT penalties.

As a second-time offender, the Yankees would owe a 30% tax on the first $20MM by which they exceed the first threshold of $233MM, a 42% tax on the next $20MM spent, a 75% tax on the next $20MM and a 90% tax on any dollars spent thereafter. Judge alone would put them into the second tier and come with a penalty of around $8-9MM, and any subsequent moves would be taxed heavily. The Yankees could change that calculus by finding a taker for Josh Donaldson, Aaron Hicks or a member (or members) of their arbitration class, but the team knows full well that the cost of an improved offer to Judge stretches well beyond the bottom-line numbers on the contract itself.

That improved offer, of course, comes on the heels of a historic season that saw Judge seamlessly deal with not only the pressure of the expectations set by rejecting more than $200MM but also the pressure of chasing down Roger Maris’ longstanding mark of 61 home runs. Judge indeed set a new American League and Yankee standard when he belted his 62nd round-tripper of the season on Oct. 4. He finished off his MVP-winning campaign with a stunning .311/.425/.686 batting line — good for a 207 wRC+ that stands as the best offensive season in recent history. Barry Bonds was the last player to match or exceed that level, and prior to him, no qualified hitter had done so since Ted Williams in 1957. MLBTR predicted an eight-year, $332MM contract for Judge when ranking him atop our annual Top 50 free agent list.

Guardians Showing Continued Interest In Sean Murphy

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The Guardians are among the teams in discussions with the A’s about Sean Murphy, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (on Twitter). The backstop is one of the more frequent trade targets of the offseason, and Morosi suggests Oakland could complete a deal by the end of the Winter Meetings next week.

Murphy is of interest to virtually every team seeking catching help. He has been a quality hitter throughout his three-plus seasons in the big leagues, showing solid power and plate discipline with roughly average bat-to-ball skills. Murphy tallied a career-high 612 plate appearances this past season, hitting .250/.332/.426 with 18 home runs and a personal-low 20.3% strikeout rate.

While that may not be an eye-popping slash line at first glance, it marked well above-average production once one accounts for the depressed offensive environment around the game and Oakland’s pitcher-friendly home ballpark. By measure of wRC+, Murphy was 22 percentage points better than the average batter. Those numbers look even better when comparing Murphy to his peers behind the plate. Catchers overall mustered a putrid .228/.295/.368 line in 2022. Murphy ranked seventh at the position (among those with 300+ plate appearances) in on-base percentage and finished tenth in slugging.

In addition to that quality performance at the dish, the Wright State product is regarded as an excellent defensive backstop. Statcast consistently pegs him as an above-average pitch framer. The possibility for an electronic strike zone in 2024 or beyond could take pitch framing out of the sport, but Murphy also possesses an elite arm. He cut down 31.1% of attempted basestealers, well above the 25% league mark. Statcast credited him with a 1.89 second pop time (average time to throw to second base), the fourth-best mark among 72 catchers with 10+ throws. He was only charged with two passed balls despite playing more than 1000 innings behind the dish, a workload that trailed only that of J.T. Realmuto.

Murphy’s well-rounded game makes him one of the sport’s better catchers, and his trade appeal is only enhanced by his affordability. He’s eligible for arbitration for three more seasons, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $3.5MM salary in 2023. The 28-year-old will earn successive boosts over the next couple years, but his arbitration salaries will remain well below his open market value if he continues to perform at his recent level.

That window of affordable control means the A’s aren’t under urgent contractual or financial pressure to move him. However, Oakland also looks at least a year away from being able to contend for a Wild Card spot. The A’s tore down their roster over the 2021-22 offseason to cut costs, and they finished 2022 with an AL-worst 60-102 record. Murphy’s trade value will only dwindle alongside his remaining window of club control, and the A’s could seize the opportunity to move him for a massive return in the coming weeks or months.

Doing so would allow the A’s to give a full season of catching reps to top prospect Shea Langeliers. Acquired from the Braves in the Matt Olson trade last spring, Langeliers hit .283/.366/.510 through 92 games with Triple-A Las Vegas. He showed some power but also concerning strikeout and walk numbers in his first big league look late in the season. The former top ten draftee is regarded as a possible plus defender in his own right, and while the A’s could theoretically have Murphy and Lanegliers split catching and designated hitter duties, doing so would negate the defensive value of one of those players each game.

Cleveland places a premium on catcher defense, having turned primarily to Austin Hedges over the past few seasons. Hedges rivals Murphy defensively but offers virtually nothing with the bat. He’s coming off a .163/.241/.248 line and hit free agency at the end of the season. Cleveland could certainly look to bring him back, but acquiring Murphy would keep the club’s excellent defense intact while adding a possible middle-of-the-order bat. Murphy has even platoon numbers over the course of his career, but his right-handed bat would be an ancillary bonus for a Cleveland lineup that skews left-handed. The Guardians had a .646 OPS against southpaws this past season, a mark that topped only those of the Marlins and A’s.

As things currently stand, the only catchers on Cleveland’s 40-man roster are Bo Naylor and Bryan Lavastida. Each player made his MLB debut in 2022 and they have a combined 11 games of big league experience. Lavastida had a rough offensive showing in the upper minors and could fit better as a depth option.

Naylor, who turns 23 in February, is a more highly-regarded prospect who’s coming off a .257/.366/.514 line in 66 games at Triple-A Columbus. He could be a regular, but prospect evaluators have raised some concerns about his defense. At the very least, adding a veteran complement to that duo will be on the to-do list for president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and his staff. The Guardians could look to experiment with Naylor at other positions if they pull off a Murphy trade, and there’s also the possibility Cleveland includes him as part of the package they’re dangling to the A’s.

Padres, Diamondbacks Among Teams Interested In Xander Bogaerts

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11:40am: The Athletic’s Peter Gammons cites front office officials from three other teams who are of the belief that Bogaerts will not return to Boston (Twitter link). As he did with regard to Bogaerts playing another position, however, Boras outwardly denied the report, telling Alex Speier of the Boston Globe that Bogaerts is “open to any and all voices in the free agent market” and adding that he and Bogaerts “have not closed any doors on anyone.”

10:04am: Next week’s Winter Meetings are generally expected to serve as a catalyst for what’s been a slow-moving free agent market. As the league’s biggest offseason convention approaches, the interest for some of the top players available is beginning to come into focus.

Xander Bogaerts is part of a loaded shortstop class, and a number of teams have checked in with his representatives at the Boras Corporation. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports the Diamondbacks and Cubs have expressed interest, while adding that previously-reported suitors like the Phillies and Dodgers are in the mix. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller recently checked in with Scott Boras about Bogaerts’ willingness to play a position other than shortstop. Boras, however, flatly rejected the possibility; the agent tells Rosenthal “Xander is playing shortstop” and denied that San Diego would prefer to move him off the position.

San Diego’s interest in Bogaerts isn’t a new development. Marino Pepén listed the Padres as a suitor last week, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post has suggested they’re involved in the top of the shortstop market more generally. The Friars are seemingly serious enough in their pursuit to gauge Bogaerts’ amenability to move off the position.

The infield mix at Petco Park is already crowded, although there are a number of multi-positional options who can move around. Manny Machado is locked in at third base, while the rest of the current infield figures to be made up by some combination of Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth. Kim has proven himself an excellent defensive shortstop and earned an everyday role with a .251/.325/.383 showing this past season. Tatis was expected to be the franchise shortstop after a brilliant start to his career earned him a $340MM extension, but he’s now under consideration for a move to second base or the outfield after missing all of 2022 due to injury and a performance-enhancing drug ban. Cronenworth is a quality defender at the keystone, but the Friars have floated the possibility of kicking him over to first base with Josh Bell and Brandon Drury hitting free agency.

Adding a first base/designated hitter type might be the most straightforward path to building out the offense, but there’s no harm for Preller and his staff in considering other avenues. Adding another middle infielder while kicking Cronenworth to first base would give San Diego an elite defensive infield, while Bogaerts is among the top offensive players available regardless of position. He’s long been mentioned as a candidate to move off shortstop towards the end of a free agent deal after years of subpar defensive marks, but he quieted those concerns (at least in the short term) with arguably the best season of his career with the glove. Bogaerts rated as four runs above average in more than 1200 shortstop innings by both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast this past season. He hasn’t played anywhere else since 2014 and while there’s little question he could handle a less demanding position like second or third base, it doesn’t seem he’s willing to do so.

There are a number of other teams with worse internal options than the Padres that’d surely be willing to plug Bogaerts in at his longtime position. The Diamondbacks relied on rookie Geraldo Perdomo this year, and he looked overmatched to the tune of a .195/.285/.262 line in 500 plate appearances. Nick Ahmed is under contract and can play excellent defense, but he’s always been a below-average hitter and lost almost all of this past season to surgery on his throwing shoulder.

Arizona general manager Mike Hazen is plenty familiar with Bogaerts from his previous work in the Red Sox’s front office, so it’s little surprise they’re interested in adding him given the uncertain shortstop outlook. The question is whether a Diamondbacks team that has had a payroll south of $100MM in each of the past two seasons would be willing to commit a deal of that magnitude. MLBTR predicts a seven-year, $189MM contract for Bogaerts. The D-Backs already have roughly $98MM in salary commitments for next season, per Roster Resource, so adding a salary in the realm of $27MM annually would require owner Ken Kendrick signing off on a major spending hike relative to recent levels.

The Cubs have a cleaner long-term payroll outlook that makes them a viable fit for any of the top shortstops. Nico Hoerner is a quality incumbent, but he’s already expressed a willingness to move to second base to accommodate a big-ticket acquisition. Roster Resource projects Chicago’s 2023 commitments around $127MM, and they’ve opened each of the past two seasons with payrolls in the $140MM to $150MM range. Chicago has pushed spending north of $200MM in the past. There’s room for an aggressive offseason, but president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer and his front office have to weigh whether to invest in the middle infield against other weak points on the roster like center field, first base, catcher and the back of the rotation.

Bogaerts rejected a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, so any signing team will have to forfeit draft choice(s) and/or international bonus pool space to sign him. Boston has consistently maintained retaining him is their top priority, though extension talks dating back at least to Spring Training haven’t gotten anywhere. The Phils are widely expected to be in play for a top shortstop, but reports suggest they’re more dialed in on Trea Turner at the moment. The Dodgers could certainly turn to any of the other shortstops if Turner walks, while the Twins reportedly have Bogaerts as their top fallback if they can’t retain Carlos Correa.

Phillies Reportedly Have Trea Turner As Top Priority

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The Phillies have shortstop Trea Turner as their top priority, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network. This lines up with reporting from Buster Olney and Jesse Rogers, both of ESPN, who each relay word from sources that feel the Phillies will sign one of the “Big Four” shortstops, which includes Turner as well as Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.

The Phillies have been looking for a solution at shortstop for a few years now. They signed Didi Gregorius going into 2020, giving him a one-year deal. He performed well enough in the shortened season to stick around on a two-year deal, but that went south almost immediately. After he hit just .209/.270/.370 in 2021, there was some speculation that the Phillies would jump into last year’s big shortstop sweepstakes, featuring Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Baez, Trevor Story and Marcus Semien.

They ultimately stayed on the sidelines, giving Gregorius a chance to redeem himself in the last year of his deal. That didn’t work out, as he hit .210/.263/.304 this year and got released in August. They had to turn to their backup plan, which was prospect Bryson Stott. He had struggled over the first couple of months, hardly surprising given that it was his first major league action, getting optioned to the minors in April but returning after just a couple of weeks.

At the end of May, Stott was sitting on a miserable .123/.179/.151 batting line for a wRC+ of -8. Something seemed to click in June, as he hit .257/.318/.401 for a wRC+ of 102 from that point on, bringing his final line up to .234/.295/.358 and a wRC+ of 83. His glovework at short was considered below average by Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average, while Ultimate Zone Rating had him just a smidge above. That’s hardly a disastrous season for a rookie, but the Phils evidently didn’t see enough to consider Stott their long-term solution at the position and seem to be involved in the shortstop market for a second straight year. The club declined Jean Segura’s option, creating an opening at second base that Stott could theoretically fill. Both DRS and OAA liked his glovework better on that side of the bag, making it a sensible approach for the club.

While any of the four shortstops would be logical for this plan, Turner would certainly be an exciting fit. In his time in the big leagues so far, he’s proven himself to be one of the best all-around players in the game, succeeding in just about every aspect. In 849 career games, he’s hit 124 home runs and stolen 230 bases. His career batting line is .302/.355/.487, leading to a wRC+ of 124. UZR doesn’t like his work at shortstop, but both DRS and OAA have him above average for his career. For a Phillies team that’s full of sluggers like Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Rhys Hoskins, a dynamic player like Turner, who turns 30 in June, would provide an exciting new element.

Of course, given his elite skills, he will have to paid at a high level. MLBTR predicted a contract of $268MM over eight years, an average annual value of $33.5MM. The Phillies currently have about $179MM committed to 2023, per Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax number of $191MM. Last year’s Opening Day payroll was $229MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, meaning they still have plenty of room to work with if they plan on spending at a comparable level this year. They would likely want to keep some powder dry for addressing other needs, such as their pitching staff, but it’s easy to see how they could fit a Turner-sized contract in here. Even adding about $30MM or so to that CBT number doesn’t get them over the lowest threshold for 2023, which will be $233MM. Plus, given their World Series run in 2022, they likely banked some extra revenues that could potentially lead to a bigger budget in 2023.

Turner received and rejected a qualifying offer from the Dodgers, meaning any team that signs him will have to pay a cost beyond just the money. Since the Phillies paid the luxury tax in 2022, they would have to forfeit their second-highest and fifth-highest picks in the next draft, in addition to seeing their international bonus pool dropped by $1MM. If Turner does indeed sign with someone other than the Dodgers, they would receive an extra pick after the fourth round, a diminished return because they also paid the luxury tax this year.

Of course, the Phillies won’t be alone in any pursuit of Turner. Morosi mentions that the Giants are involved, but adds that they will likely want to see how the Aaron Judge situation plays out before pivoting to a shortstop pursuit. Turner’s also been connected in rumors to the Cubs and Mariners, while there are other teams that would make speculative sense. If one of those clubs would eventually edge out the Phillies and acquire Turner, they could pivot to the other big names, having already been connected to Bogaerts.

Blue Jays Hire Don Mattingly As Bench Coach

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Nov. 30: The Blue Jays announced that Mattingly has been hired as their new bench coach. Candaele will return to his prior role managing the Jays’ Triple-A affiliate.

Nov. 29: The Blue Jays are closing in on a deal to bring in Don Mattingly as their bench coach, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman and Jon Heyman first reported earlier this evening that Mattingly and the Jays were in discussions about a coaching position, which Shi Davidi of Sportsnet specified was for the bench coach vacancy.

Assuming the deal is completed, Mattingly will step right back onto an MLB staff. He’s spent the past 12 years managing, leading the Dodgers from 2011-15 and the Marlins from 2016-22. Towards the end of this past season, Miami and Mattingly announced they’d part ways at the end of the year. The 61-year-old suggested he was open to continued coaching, managerial or front office work at the time, and he’ll indeed jump into another key role.

The Marlins only once qualified for the postseason during Mattingly’s seven-year tenure as manager. Miami was rebuilding for the early portion of that stretch, and it looked as if they’d taken a step forward with a 31-29 showing during the shortened 2020 season to secure a Wild Card berth. Their efforts to build around a developing rotation didn’t lead to continued progress, though, and Miami and Mattingly went their separate ways after 2021-22 seasons with 93 and 95 losses, respectively. The Fish subsequently hired Skip Schumaker away from the Cardinals as manager.

Mattingly will bring a wealth of high-level experience to the bench coach position. That’s surely welcome for 42-year-old John Schneider, who was named Toronto’s manager just prior to the start of the offseason. He’d served in that role in an interim capacity for the final couple months, taking over when the Jays dismissed Charlie Montoyo in July. This’ll be his first full season as a big league manager, though, so it’s sensible to bring in a veteran voice like Mattingly to assist in those decisions.

Schneider entered the 2022 season as Toronto’s bench coach under Montoyo. When he vacated the position to take the lead role, the Jays promoted Triple-A manager Casey Candaele to interim bench coach for the second half. It’s not clear whether Candaele will remain on the MLB staff or is set to head back to the minor leagues in 2023.

The forthcoming bench coach hiring is just one part of what could be a very eventful week for Mattingly. He’s one of eight former players under Hall of Fame consideration by the Era Committee. The six-time All-Star will find out on Sunday whether he’ll be enshrined in Cooperstown in 2023.

Nationals Sign Jeimer Candelario To One-Year Contract

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The Nationals announced Tuesday afternoon they’ve signed infielder Jeimer Candelario to a one-year deal. He’ll reportedly receive a $5MM base salary, and the deal also contains an additional $1MM in possible incentives.

Candelario, 29, is a buy-low move for the Nationals that they surely hope will have some upside for them. The switch-hitter seemed to break out over 2020 and 2021 as he hit 23 home runs in that stretch and produced a batting line of .278/.356/.458. That production was 25% better than league average, as evidenced by his 125 wRC+. Advanced defensive metrics disagreed slightly on how to value his glovework, but it was generally viewed as in the vicinity of league average. FanGraphs valued him as being worth 1.9 wins above replacement in the shortened 2020 season and 3.9 in 2021. The combined 5.8 fWAR over those two seasons was good enough for him to rank third in all of baseball among third basemen, trailing only José Ramírez and Manny Machado.

Unfortunately, just about every member of the Tigers endured a nightmare season in 2022, and Candelario was not spared. He produced a batting line of just .217/.272/.361 for a wRC+ of 80. His batting average on balls in play, which was .342 over the previous two seasons, dropped to .257. That means luck could have played a factor but probably doesn’t explain everything, as his hard contract rate and average exit velocity both went in the wrong direction while he hit fewer line drives.

The Tigers could have retained Candelario for one more season via arbitration, with a $7MM salary projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. However, they ultimately decided they’d prefer not to put that kind of money down on the table to bet on a bounceback and opted to non-tender him instead.

Candelario has been a free agent for just over a week but has already found his next employer. The Nationals have been leaning hard into rebuild mode over the past few seasons, trading away players like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Juan Soto, just to name a few. That’s left them with a roster primarily consisting of unproven youngsters who are still looking to establish themselves at the big league level. There are many areas of the squad where it makes sense to supplement those players with fliers on veterans and third base is certainly one of them.

Not so long ago, it was thought that the Nats had their future third baseman in Carter Kieboom, who they selected 28th overall in 2016. He produced impressive batting lines as he moved up the minor league ladder and was ranked among the top 100 prospects in the sport by Baseball America in 2019 and 2020, getting as high as #15 in that latter season. Unfortunately, he didn’t immediately acclimate to the big leagues, hitting .197/.304/.285 for a wRC+ of 63 in 414 plate appearances over the 2019-2021 stretch. In March of 2022, he was diagnosed with a forearm strain and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery in May, leading to him missing the season entirely.

With Kieboom out this year, the Nats used various different players at the hot corner, one of which was veteran Ildemaro Vargas. The 31-year-old was selected to the roster in August and played well down the stretch, getting positive grades from all advanced defensive metrics and hitting .263/.299/.392 for a wRC+ of 92. The Nats were pleased enough to avoid arbitration with him, giving him a salary of $975K.

Vargas and now Candelario give the club some extra veteran insurance on the infield. If Kieboom surges ahead and grabs hold of the job, it shouldn’t be a problem. Vargas can play all over the diamond and Candelario has also spent time at first base in his career, meaning there would still be plenty of space for all of them in the lineup. With Luke Voit having been non-tendered, the first base/designated hitter mix is fairly wide open. Joey Meneses had an incredible breakout as a 30-year-old rookie in 2022 and will likely get a shot to see how much of that he can sustain going forward. But even if all of Kieboom, Candelario, Vargas and Meneses happen to be healthy and playing well at the same time, it should be possible to have two of them at the corners and one at designated hitter, with Vargas playing a super utility role, occasionally stepping in for that trio, as well as shortstop CJ Abrams and second baseman Luis Garcia.

The Nats have finished last in the National East in each of the past two seasons, winning 65 games in 2021 and just 55 in 2022. Their work in rebuilding their farm system is still in its early stages, meaning expectations will be low for 2023. Candelario has proven himself capable of being a valuable major leaguer, but is available due to his slump in 2022. If he is able to turns things around next year, he’ll give a boost to the team and turn himself into a valuable trade chip at the deadline, without really standing in the way of any of the club’s young players.

Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press was first to report Candelario and the Nationals had agreed to a one-year contract. Mike Rodriguez was first to report the financial terms.

Image Courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Pirates To Sign Carlos Santana

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November 29: The Pirates have officially announced the deal.

November 25: The Pirates have agreed to a one-year deal with veteran first-baseman Carlos Santana pending a physical, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. It’ll pay the Octagon client $6.725MM, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. It’s the largest guarantee the Pirates have given to a free agent since inking Daniel Hudson to a two-year, $11MM deal before the 2017 season.

It’s an intriguing move for the Pirates as they look to slowly work their way back to contention after a lengthy rebuild. Santana is the third first-base/DH option they’ve acquired this off-season, following their trade for Ji-Man Choi and claim of Lewin Diaz.

Santana, 36, spent last year with the Royals and Mariners, slashing a joint .202/.316/.376 with 19 home runs over 506 plate appearances for a wRC+ of 102, a couple of ticks above league average. While the numbers certainly don’t leap off the page, Santana did post the lowest BABIP of his career and hasn’t seen much shift in his walk or strikeout rates. Santana could also be one of the biggest benefactors of the shift restrictions that’ll come into play next season, as no one faced a shift more often than he did (98.3% of the time).

It’ll be the fifth major league team Santana has suited up for. He debuted for Cleveland back in 2010, the first of eight seasons he’d initially spend with the franchise. Santana regularly posted 20+ home run totals, combining power with strong on-base skills. His best year was 2013, when Santana finished 15th in AL MVP voting on the back of .268/.377/.455 line.

Santana inked a three-year, $60MM deal with the Phillies prior to the 2018 season, but after just a year Cleveland re-acquired him via a ten-day stint in Seattle. His return to Cleveland proved successful, as Santana hit 34 home runs, won a Silver Slugger and earned his first trip to the All Star game.

That was his last dominant campaign though, and his final year in Cleveland in 2020, and the following seasons in Kansas City and Seattle have brought about wRC+ marks of 99, 82 and 102. While his average has taken a huge dip in recent years, he’s continued to walk at a strong rate and post solid power numbers. His HardHit% and exit velocity remain in line with his peak numbers, so there certainly seems to be enough to suggest Santana could experience a bit of a bounce back in 2023.

That’s certainly what the Bucs will be hoping for, but it won’t take much for them to improve their first-base output in 2023. Pittsburgh first-basemen combined for -3.0 fWAR in 2022, so the addition of Choi and Santana addresses that. Santana was worth three Outs Above Average at first in 2022, with Choi worth two and the pair will likely split time there and at DH in 2023. Choi’s struggles against left-handed pitching could mean he sits in those matchups while Santana mans first and Pittsburgh gives another hitter a game at DH.

Beyond his production at the plate, Santana will be a valuable veteran presence in a young clubhouse. The Pirates have brought through a number of prospects they hope will form the foundation of their next contending team in recent years, including Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz and Roansy Contreras. There’s plenty of young talent there with more expected to crack the big leagues in 2023, so having a veteran mentor in Santana around can only help the Bucs’ young core.

The $6.725MM guarantee is modest by MLB standards, but significant for Pittsburgh. It makes Santana the third highest paid Pirate for 2023, behind Hayes and Bryan Reynolds, and takes their projected 2023 payroll to $54MM, per RosterResource. That falls about $5MM shy of their 2022 mark and it’ll be interesting to see where the final figure lands for next season. A veteran starter on a similar deal to Jose Quintana’s last season seems likely, while the team could do with a low-cost catcher to bridge the gap until top prospects Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis are ready to debut.

Photo credit: USA Today Sports.

Astros Sign José Abreu To Three-Year Contract

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The Astros have found their new first baseman, announcing agreement Monday evening on a three-year deal with José Abreu. He’ll reportedly receive $19.5MM per season, bringing the total to $58.5MM. The salary will be paid out evenly, and the deal also contains various incentives based upon awards voting and All-Star appearances. Abreu is represented by ISE Baseball.

Abreu, 36 in January, has spent his entire big league career with the White Sox thus far, but it seemed likely as the season was winding down that they were ready to let him switch jerseys in 2023. With many other first base/designated hitter candidates on the roster, such as Andrew Vaughn and Eloy Jimenez, the thinking was that they would let Abreu walk and dedicate their resources elsewhere, which now appears to have come to pass.

Though the Sox were apparently willing to let him walk away, he continues to have excellent results at the plate. In 2022, he seemingly gave up a bit of power for a more contact-oriented approach, but still to great effect. His 15 home runs were the lowest of his career but so was his 16.2% strikeout rate. The result was a .304/.378/.446 batting line that was 37% better than league average, as evidenced by his 137 wRC+.

That was his ninth MLB season, with Abreu posting a wRC+ of 114 or higher in each of them. He got as high as 164 in 2020, winning Most Valuable Player in the American League in that shortened season. Despite the downturn in power this year, he’s been one of the best hitters in the league over the past decade or so. Since his debut in 2014, he has a 139 wRC+ for his career, with only 11 hitters posting a higher such number in that timeframe. Given his generally solid work at the plate but relatively older age, MLBTR predicted him to secure a contract of $40MM over two years, or $20MM per season. He was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer since he had already been given one earlier in his career.

The Astros were excellent in 2022, winning 106 regular season games and then storming through the playoffs to their second World Series title. First base was actually one of the few weak spots on the roster, as Yuli Gurriel suffered through a down year at the plate. After hitting .319/.383/.462 in 2021, he slumped down to .242/.288/.360 this year. The club acquired Trey Mancini at the deadline to try to bolster the position but it didn’t really work out as he hit just .176/.258/.364 after the deal. Both players reached free agency at season’s end, leaving a vacancy for Abreu to step into. This signing potentially brings Gurriel’s tenure in Houston to an end after seven seasons, unless he’s willing to return in a lesser role as a pinch hitter and occasional designated hitter.

The Astros recently parted ways with general manager James Click amid reported disagreements between him and owner Jim Crane. It seems Crane is in no rush to replace Click, taking over the baseball decisions and seemingly content to continue doing so into the new year. Despite the unusual front office situation, they’ve continued to be quite active, re-signing reliever Rafael Montero and now adding Abreu, both on three-year deals.

Turning to the financials, the Astros currently have a 2023 payroll around $163MM and a competitive balance tax figure around $178MM, per Roster Resource. Their Opening Day payroll figure was $175MM last year and $188MM in 2021, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Assuming Abreu’s contract is in the predicted range of about $20MM per season, that would push their payroll up above $180MM and their CBT number close to $200MM. Though they’re getting close to their previous highs in spending, it stands to reason that they can push it a little bit this winter on the heels of a Championship run and all the extra revenues that go along with that. As for the CBT, the lowest threshold for 2023 will be $233MM, leaving them with plenty of remaining space even if they plan on avoiding going over.

For the White Sox, this marks the end of an era that lasted almost a decade. Vaughn is a natural first baseman whose attempts to move to the outfield went poorly. He produced -16 Outs Above Average on the grass in 2022, the lowest mark of any outfielder in the league this year. His -10.5 Ultimate Zone Rating was also the lowest for an MLB outfielder on the season while his -14 Defensive Runs Saved was among the bottom five. However, he hit .273/.323/.433, producing a wRC+ of 115 while just 24 years old. The Sox surely hope that he can produce even better results as he continues to acclimate to MLB pitching, especially without having to bother with worrying about his outfield defense in the future. Nonetheless, the club will be looking to improve on an 81-81 season while letting their best hitter depart, which won’t be an easy task.

For the Astros, their lineup was already extremely potent, featuring the likes of Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. They’ve now added one of the best hitters in the league as they look to defend their World Series title in the year to come.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that Abreu and the Astros were finalizing a deal, as well as the three-year term (Twitter links). Jon Heyman of The New York Post first relayed that the salary would be around $20MM per season. Mark Berman of Fox 26 reported that it would actually be $19.5MM per year. Heyman was first with the specific salary structure.

Image courtesy USA Today Sports.

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