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Nationals Sign Jeimer Candelario To One-Year Contract

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The Nationals announced Tuesday afternoon they’ve signed infielder Jeimer Candelario to a one-year deal. He’ll reportedly receive a $5MM base salary, and the deal also contains an additional $1MM in possible incentives.

Candelario, 29, is a buy-low move for the Nationals that they surely hope will have some upside for them. The switch-hitter seemed to break out over 2020 and 2021 as he hit 23 home runs in that stretch and produced a batting line of .278/.356/.458. That production was 25% better than league average, as evidenced by his 125 wRC+. Advanced defensive metrics disagreed slightly on how to value his glovework, but it was generally viewed as in the vicinity of league average. FanGraphs valued him as being worth 1.9 wins above replacement in the shortened 2020 season and 3.9 in 2021. The combined 5.8 fWAR over those two seasons was good enough for him to rank third in all of baseball among third basemen, trailing only José Ramírez and Manny Machado.

Unfortunately, just about every member of the Tigers endured a nightmare season in 2022, and Candelario was not spared. He produced a batting line of just .217/.272/.361 for a wRC+ of 80. His batting average on balls in play, which was .342 over the previous two seasons, dropped to .257. That means luck could have played a factor but probably doesn’t explain everything, as his hard contract rate and average exit velocity both went in the wrong direction while he hit fewer line drives.

The Tigers could have retained Candelario for one more season via arbitration, with a $7MM salary projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. However, they ultimately decided they’d prefer not to put that kind of money down on the table to bet on a bounceback and opted to non-tender him instead.

Candelario has been a free agent for just over a week but has already found his next employer. The Nationals have been leaning hard into rebuild mode over the past few seasons, trading away players like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Juan Soto, just to name a few. That’s left them with a roster primarily consisting of unproven youngsters who are still looking to establish themselves at the big league level. There are many areas of the squad where it makes sense to supplement those players with fliers on veterans and third base is certainly one of them.

Not so long ago, it was thought that the Nats had their future third baseman in Carter Kieboom, who they selected 28th overall in 2016. He produced impressive batting lines as he moved up the minor league ladder and was ranked among the top 100 prospects in the sport by Baseball America in 2019 and 2020, getting as high as #15 in that latter season. Unfortunately, he didn’t immediately acclimate to the big leagues, hitting .197/.304/.285 for a wRC+ of 63 in 414 plate appearances over the 2019-2021 stretch. In March of 2022, he was diagnosed with a forearm strain and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery in May, leading to him missing the season entirely.

With Kieboom out this year, the Nats used various different players at the hot corner, one of which was veteran Ildemaro Vargas. The 31-year-old was selected to the roster in August and played well down the stretch, getting positive grades from all advanced defensive metrics and hitting .263/.299/.392 for a wRC+ of 92. The Nats were pleased enough to avoid arbitration with him, giving him a salary of $975K.

Vargas and now Candelario give the club some extra veteran insurance on the infield. If Kieboom surges ahead and grabs hold of the job, it shouldn’t be a problem. Vargas can play all over the diamond and Candelario has also spent time at first base in his career, meaning there would still be plenty of space for all of them in the lineup. With Luke Voit having been non-tendered, the first base/designated hitter mix is fairly wide open. Joey Meneses had an incredible breakout as a 30-year-old rookie in 2022 and will likely get a shot to see how much of that he can sustain going forward. But even if all of Kieboom, Candelario, Vargas and Meneses happen to be healthy and playing well at the same time, it should be possible to have two of them at the corners and one at designated hitter, with Vargas playing a super utility role, occasionally stepping in for that trio, as well as shortstop CJ Abrams and second baseman Luis Garcia.

The Nats have finished last in the National East in each of the past two seasons, winning 65 games in 2021 and just 55 in 2022. Their work in rebuilding their farm system is still in its early stages, meaning expectations will be low for 2023. Candelario has proven himself capable of being a valuable major leaguer, but is available due to his slump in 2022. If he is able to turns things around next year, he’ll give a boost to the team and turn himself into a valuable trade chip at the deadline, without really standing in the way of any of the club’s young players.

Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press was first to report Candelario and the Nationals had agreed to a one-year contract. Mike Rodriguez was first to report the financial terms.

Image Courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Pirates To Sign Carlos Santana

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November 29: The Pirates have officially announced the deal.

November 25: The Pirates have agreed to a one-year deal with veteran first-baseman Carlos Santana pending a physical, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. It’ll pay the Octagon client $6.725MM, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. It’s the largest guarantee the Pirates have given to a free agent since inking Daniel Hudson to a two-year, $11MM deal before the 2017 season.

It’s an intriguing move for the Pirates as they look to slowly work their way back to contention after a lengthy rebuild. Santana is the third first-base/DH option they’ve acquired this off-season, following their trade for Ji-Man Choi and claim of Lewin Diaz.

Santana, 36, spent last year with the Royals and Mariners, slashing a joint .202/.316/.376 with 19 home runs over 506 plate appearances for a wRC+ of 102, a couple of ticks above league average. While the numbers certainly don’t leap off the page, Santana did post the lowest BABIP of his career and hasn’t seen much shift in his walk or strikeout rates. Santana could also be one of the biggest benefactors of the shift restrictions that’ll come into play next season, as no one faced a shift more often than he did (98.3% of the time).

It’ll be the fifth major league team Santana has suited up for. He debuted for Cleveland back in 2010, the first of eight seasons he’d initially spend with the franchise. Santana regularly posted 20+ home run totals, combining power with strong on-base skills. His best year was 2013, when Santana finished 15th in AL MVP voting on the back of .268/.377/.455 line.

Santana inked a three-year, $60MM deal with the Phillies prior to the 2018 season, but after just a year Cleveland re-acquired him via a ten-day stint in Seattle. His return to Cleveland proved successful, as Santana hit 34 home runs, won a Silver Slugger and earned his first trip to the All Star game.

That was his last dominant campaign though, and his final year in Cleveland in 2020, and the following seasons in Kansas City and Seattle have brought about wRC+ marks of 99, 82 and 102. While his average has taken a huge dip in recent years, he’s continued to walk at a strong rate and post solid power numbers. His HardHit% and exit velocity remain in line with his peak numbers, so there certainly seems to be enough to suggest Santana could experience a bit of a bounce back in 2023.

That’s certainly what the Bucs will be hoping for, but it won’t take much for them to improve their first-base output in 2023. Pittsburgh first-basemen combined for -3.0 fWAR in 2022, so the addition of Choi and Santana addresses that. Santana was worth three Outs Above Average at first in 2022, with Choi worth two and the pair will likely split time there and at DH in 2023. Choi’s struggles against left-handed pitching could mean he sits in those matchups while Santana mans first and Pittsburgh gives another hitter a game at DH.

Beyond his production at the plate, Santana will be a valuable veteran presence in a young clubhouse. The Pirates have brought through a number of prospects they hope will form the foundation of their next contending team in recent years, including Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz and Roansy Contreras. There’s plenty of young talent there with more expected to crack the big leagues in 2023, so having a veteran mentor in Santana around can only help the Bucs’ young core.

The $6.725MM guarantee is modest by MLB standards, but significant for Pittsburgh. It makes Santana the third highest paid Pirate for 2023, behind Hayes and Bryan Reynolds, and takes their projected 2023 payroll to $54MM, per RosterResource. That falls about $5MM shy of their 2022 mark and it’ll be interesting to see where the final figure lands for next season. A veteran starter on a similar deal to Jose Quintana’s last season seems likely, while the team could do with a low-cost catcher to bridge the gap until top prospects Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis are ready to debut.

Photo credit: USA Today Sports.

Astros Sign José Abreu To Three-Year Contract

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The Astros have found their new first baseman, announcing agreement Monday evening on a three-year deal with José Abreu. He’ll reportedly receive $19.5MM per season, bringing the total to $58.5MM. The salary will be paid out evenly, and the deal also contains various incentives based upon awards voting and All-Star appearances. Abreu is represented by ISE Baseball.

Abreu, 36 in January, has spent his entire big league career with the White Sox thus far, but it seemed likely as the season was winding down that they were ready to let him switch jerseys in 2023. With many other first base/designated hitter candidates on the roster, such as Andrew Vaughn and Eloy Jimenez, the thinking was that they would let Abreu walk and dedicate their resources elsewhere, which now appears to have come to pass.

Though the Sox were apparently willing to let him walk away, he continues to have excellent results at the plate. In 2022, he seemingly gave up a bit of power for a more contact-oriented approach, but still to great effect. His 15 home runs were the lowest of his career but so was his 16.2% strikeout rate. The result was a .304/.378/.446 batting line that was 37% better than league average, as evidenced by his 137 wRC+.

That was his ninth MLB season, with Abreu posting a wRC+ of 114 or higher in each of them. He got as high as 164 in 2020, winning Most Valuable Player in the American League in that shortened season. Despite the downturn in power this year, he’s been one of the best hitters in the league over the past decade or so. Since his debut in 2014, he has a 139 wRC+ for his career, with only 11 hitters posting a higher such number in that timeframe. Given his generally solid work at the plate but relatively older age, MLBTR predicted him to secure a contract of $40MM over two years, or $20MM per season. He was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer since he had already been given one earlier in his career.

The Astros were excellent in 2022, winning 106 regular season games and then storming through the playoffs to their second World Series title. First base was actually one of the few weak spots on the roster, as Yuli Gurriel suffered through a down year at the plate. After hitting .319/.383/.462 in 2021, he slumped down to .242/.288/.360 this year. The club acquired Trey Mancini at the deadline to try to bolster the position but it didn’t really work out as he hit just .176/.258/.364 after the deal. Both players reached free agency at season’s end, leaving a vacancy for Abreu to step into. This signing potentially brings Gurriel’s tenure in Houston to an end after seven seasons, unless he’s willing to return in a lesser role as a pinch hitter and occasional designated hitter.

The Astros recently parted ways with general manager James Click amid reported disagreements between him and owner Jim Crane. It seems Crane is in no rush to replace Click, taking over the baseball decisions and seemingly content to continue doing so into the new year. Despite the unusual front office situation, they’ve continued to be quite active, re-signing reliever Rafael Montero and now adding Abreu, both on three-year deals.

Turning to the financials, the Astros currently have a 2023 payroll around $163MM and a competitive balance tax figure around $178MM, per Roster Resource. Their Opening Day payroll figure was $175MM last year and $188MM in 2021, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Assuming Abreu’s contract is in the predicted range of about $20MM per season, that would push their payroll up above $180MM and their CBT number close to $200MM. Though they’re getting close to their previous highs in spending, it stands to reason that they can push it a little bit this winter on the heels of a Championship run and all the extra revenues that go along with that. As for the CBT, the lowest threshold for 2023 will be $233MM, leaving them with plenty of remaining space even if they plan on avoiding going over.

For the White Sox, this marks the end of an era that lasted almost a decade. Vaughn is a natural first baseman whose attempts to move to the outfield went poorly. He produced -16 Outs Above Average on the grass in 2022, the lowest mark of any outfielder in the league this year. His -10.5 Ultimate Zone Rating was also the lowest for an MLB outfielder on the season while his -14 Defensive Runs Saved was among the bottom five. However, he hit .273/.323/.433, producing a wRC+ of 115 while just 24 years old. The Sox surely hope that he can produce even better results as he continues to acclimate to MLB pitching, especially without having to bother with worrying about his outfield defense in the future. Nonetheless, the club will be looking to improve on an 81-81 season while letting their best hitter depart, which won’t be an easy task.

For the Astros, their lineup was already extremely potent, featuring the likes of Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. They’ve now added one of the best hitters in the league as they look to defend their World Series title in the year to come.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that Abreu and the Astros were finalizing a deal, as well as the three-year term (Twitter links). Jon Heyman of The New York Post first relayed that the salary would be around $20MM per season. Mark Berman of Fox 26 reported that it would actually be $19.5MM per year. Heyman was first with the specific salary structure.

Image courtesy USA Today Sports.

Twins Have Reportedly Made Multiple Offers To Carlos Correa

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Arguably the biggest question for the Twins this offseason is how they’ll address shortstop. Minnesota’s shocking Spring Training signing of Carlos Correa solved the position for the 2022 campaign, but it’s again up in the air after the two-time All-Star opted out of the final two years on his contract.

That Correa’s now back on the open market puts Minnesota in competition with the league for his services. Twins ownership and the front office has spoken about their desire to bring him back, although they’re up against traditionally bigger spenders. Unlike last offseason, when the former first overall pick settled for a three-year guarantee to secure the highest per-year salary for a free agent position player in MLB history, he’s expected to command a long-term deal this winter.

During a recent appearance on the Talk North podcast, LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune suggested the Twins have put forth contract offers of varying lengths to Correa. Neal indicates Minnesota’s proposals range from six to ten years with differing average salaries in each. The shorter-term offers would surely feature higher annual payouts, with the comparatively lesser length reducing the team’s longer-term risk.

Financial terms of the proposals aren’t clear, but it’s notable Minnesota is ostensibly willing to make a long-term commitment to play at the top of the market. The Twins signed Joe Mauer to an eight-year, $184MM extension in March 2010 but have otherwise only reached or narrowly exceeded a nine-figure guarantee twice ($105.3MM for Correa and $100MM for Byron Buxton, both last offseason). A Correa deal of six-plus years would almost certainly set a new high-water mark for the organization, even if the contract contained one or more opt-out chances.

Correa is the #2 free agent of this winter in MLBTR’s estimation, predicted for a nine-year deal worth $288MM. Headed into his age-28 campaign, he’s still the youngest of the four top open market options at the position. Dansby Swanson is going into his age-29 season, while Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts will each spend most of next season at 30 years old. Correa narrowly led that group with a .467 slugging mark this past season, while Bogaerts finished first with a .377 on-base percentage. On a rate basis, Correa was the top offensive player by measure of wRC+, although a pair of minimal injured list stints for a finger contusion and a battle with COVID-19 kept him to 590 plate appearances.

While retaining Correa figures to be the Twins’ ideal course of action, Neal relays that Bogaerts would be Minnesota’s secondary target. Dan Hayes of the Athletic similarly suggested earlier this month the Twins were likely to pivot to the longtime Red Sox star if Correa were to land elsewhere. Boston has consistently maintained a desire to keep Bogaerts, while he’s also drawn some reported interest from the Phillies.

The Twins acquired Kyle Farmer from the Reds last week, at least mitigating the need to dip into the lower tiers of free agency if they come up empty on their pursuit of the top four shortstops. Farmer’s a competent defender coming off a .255/.315/.386 showing during his final season in Cincinnati. His presence raises the floor at the position, but he’s certainly capable of assuming a utility role off the bench if the Twins make an impact move.

Minnesota presently projects for a 2023 payroll around $98MM, per Roster Resource. They have just over $19MM in guaranteed commitments by 2024. Minnesota opened this past season with player spending a bit above $134MM, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. There’s pretty clear flexibility to make a significant investment at the shortstop position, although the front office will have to weigh that course of action against their desire to upgrade in the bullpen, behind the dish and in the corner outfield/designated hitter mix.

Bryce Harper Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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4:50pm: The Phillies announced the surgery and provided this update about his timeline: “The prognosis is for Bryce to be returning as the designated hitter by the All-Star break of 2023 with a possible return to play right field towards the end of the regular season.”

4:10pm: Phillies outfielder/designated hitter Bryce Harper underwent Tommy John surgery today, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Salisbury adds that it went “very well” and that Harper could be back into a competitive setting by mid-May.

Harper was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament back in May, which prevented him from throwing. However, he was still able to hit and served as the Phillies’ designated hitter for the rest of the season, delaying treatment until the offseason. The UCL injury didn’t slow him down at all, as he finished the year with a batting line of .286/.364/.514 for a wRC+ of 138. He then went bonkers in the playoffs, hitting .349/.414/.746 for a wRC+ of 217 and helping the Phillies get to the World Series.

It was reported last week that Harper would undergo a surgery of some kind, though the extent of it wouldn’t be known until he was actually under the knife. One option would have been an internal brace procedure, which generally requires less recovery time than a full Tommy John procedure. However, the ligament damage was apparently significant enough that a full TJS was eventually required.

Of the two possible outcomes, this is certainly bad news for the Phillies. However, it’s not as dire as it would be for a pitcher. TJS usually requires a pitcher to miss about 12-18 months while recovering and regaining strength, but position players can return much quicker. For example, Shohei Ohtani underwent TJS in October of 2018 but was serving as the Angels’ designated hitter by early May of 2019.

Each player and each injury are unique, so it can’t just be assumed Harper will follow the same timeline. But it does illustrate that Harper’s 2023 isn’t doomed. As Salisbury mentions, it’s possible that Harper is playing in competitive games by mid-May, presumably on some sort of rehab assignment that will see him rejoin the team after that. The next question will be when Harper will be able to retake the field, which is also something that could happen in 2023. Didi Gregorius underwent TJS in October of 2018 and was playing shortstop by June of 2019, some eight months later.

The ongoing fallout from Harper’s injury has been and will continue to be mitigated by the designated hitter. The National League didn’t adopt the DH on a permanent basis until the 2022 season, which was good timing for the Phils since it allowed Harper to stay in the lineup for most of 2022 and will allow him to return quicker next year.

While Harper is out of action at the beginning of the season, that will open up the DH spot for some of the club’s lesser defenders, such as Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. Though the DH allowed the club to hang onto Harper’s bat, it also meant that Scharber and Castellanos had to play the field much more than they originally envisioned. For at least part of 2023, they will have more ability to use the DH slot for those guys. The club’s regular outfield mix is slated to consist of those two along with Brandon Marsh in center. If one of the corner outfielders is in the DH slot, it opens playing time for guys like Matt Vierling or Dalton Guthrie. Then again, the club could also use the DH slot to get Darick Hall into the lineup more, as the first baseman is currently block by Rhys Hoskins there.

Aaron Judge Meets With Giants

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November 23: Jon Morosi of MLB Network says that the meeting went well and that the Giants are expected to make an offer to Judge soon.

November 21: The Giants are planning to sit down with the market’s top free agent this week, as Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets they’re expected to meet with Aaron Judge. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports the parties have a sit-down scheduled for tomorrow (on Twitter).

It’s notable but entirely unsurprising to see the Giants in the market for Judge. They’ve long been speculated as perhaps the top threat to the Yankees for the reigning AL MVP’s services. That’s both a reflection of the slugger’s ties to Northern California and, more importantly, to the abundance of financial breathing room at the Giants’ disposal. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored this afternoon, the Giants are as well-positioned as any team to make a major splash on the open market.

San Francisco’s 2023 payroll commitments are presently estimated around $133MM, per Roster Resource. They’ve opened seasons with player spending upwards of $200MM in previous seasons, and while those heights were reached before the pandemic, they’re still well shy of last year’s $155MM Opening Day figure. The long-term books are almost bare, with just over $20MM in guaranteed commitments for 2024. By 2025, the club has only a $3.5MM player option for Wilmer Flores on the ledger. In that context, it’s easy to understand president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi declaring at the GM Meetings earlier this month that “from a financial standpoint, there would be nobody that would be out of our capability.”

That includes Judge, who’s expected to land the largest deal of the offseason. He set the AL home run record with 62 home runs and hit .311/.425/.686 through 157 games. It’d have been nearly impossible to draw up a better platform season, and while Judge certainly can’t be expected to replicate that kind of production, he’s now a career .284/.394/.583 hitter in over 3000 MLB plate appearances. Few players are more imposing offensive forces. Judge also typically rates as an above-average defensive right fielder and played reasonably well over 632 2/3 innings of center field work for the Yankees this past season. He’d probably be a better fit for the corner in spacious Oracle Park, but his play in right field would upgrade an outfield defense that was among the league’s worst this year.

MLBTR predicts Judge to land an eight-year deal worth $332MM; the $41.5MM average annual value would rank second all-time, while it’d be the largest overall guarantee for a free agent in history. While the Yankees and Giants are generally perceived as the favorites in the bidding, he’s also been linked to the Dodgers. Feinsand first reported last month that L.A. was considering the possibility of jumping into the Judge market while contemplating kicking Mookie Betts into second base. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reiterated the Dodgers’ interest last week.

Of course, there are myriad possibilities for the Giants (and other big-spending teams) beyond Judge. San Francisco has also been connected to the top free agent shortstops available — Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts — as well as center fielder Brandon Nimmo. San Francisco also has needs in the bullpen and could look to make a splash at the top of the rotation. There are a number of avenues for Zaidi and his front office to explore, starting at the very top of free agency.

Red Sox Sign Joely Rodriguez

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11:49am: Rodriguez will earn a $500K bonus for reaching each of 30, 60, 90 and 120 days on the active roster in 2023, MLBTR has learned.

10:28am: The Red Sox have signed left-handed reliever Joely Rodriguez to a one-year deal with a club option for the 2024 season, per a team announcement. Rodriguez, a client of L.A. Sports Management, will be guaranteed $2MM in the form of a $1.5MM salary in 2023 and a $500K buyout on a $4.25MM club option for the 2024 campaign, Chad Jennings of The Athletic reports (via Twitter).

MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo tweets that Rodriguez can earn up to $2MM of bonuses based on time spent on the active roster in 2023, plus $250K in each season of the deal based on games pitched. In all, it can max out at $8.25MM over a two-year term. Boston’s 40-man roster is now up to 39 players.

Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Pirates as a teenager back in 2009, Rodriguez bounced to four different organizations before signing with the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball prior to the 2018 season. A strong two-year run with the Dragons (1.85 ERA in 87 2/3 innings) landed Rodriguez a big league deal to return to the Rangers.

Twice traded since that time, the now-31-year-old Rodriguez has spent a season with Texas and both New York clubs, pitching to a combined 4.28 ERA but more encouraging secondary marks. He’s averaged 94 mph on his heater, punched out an above-average 25.5% of his opponents and logged a huge 55.7% ground-ball rate. Despite a higher-than-average 10.3% walk rate, fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.14) and SIERA (3.51) all feel that Rodriguez has pitched a fair bit better than his more rudimentary ERA would otherwise indicate.

In particular, Rodriguez has excelled at limiting hard contact. Last year’s paltry 85.3 mph average exit velocity, 3.8% barrel rate and 31.8% hard-hit rate were all among the lowest marks in the league. Statcast ranked each in the 91st percentile or better among big league pitchers. Rodriguez carried a notable platoon split with the Yankees in 2021 but, upon ramping up his usage of a sinker/changeup combination (at the expense of most of his four-seamers and sliders) was generally tough on lefties and righties alike in 2022. Left-handers hit .233/.320/.326 against him, while righties were actually even worse, at .220/.325/.300.

If Rodriguez can sustain those gains against right-handed opponents and simultaneously rein in his command a bit — he walked 12% of hitters in 2022 but just 8.7% in 2021 — there’s potential for him to elevate his profile and prove to be a quality bargain on this relatively modest deal.

Rodriguez will step into a Boston bullpen that had otherwise been slated to include just one lefty: Josh Taylor. It’s possible that Darwinzon Hernandez or one of recently selected Chris Murphy and Brandon Walter could eventually work their way into the mix, but left-handed bullpen help was a fairly clear area of need for the Sox. They’ve now made at least one move to address that — though others could certainly transpire — and done so in affordable fashion. With Rodriguez on the books, Boston’s payroll sits at a projected $133.8MM, while their luxury-tax ledger is just north of $153MM.

Angels Acquire Hunter Renfroe From Brewers

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The Angels’ early-offseason aggressiveness continues. The Halos announced the acquisition of outfielder Hunter Renfroe from the Brewers on Tuesday night. Pitchers Janson Junk, Elvis Peguero and Adam Seminaris head to Milwaukee in return.

It’s the third early strike of the offseason for the Halos, who’ve already signed starter Tyler Anderson to a three-year free agent deal and acquired infielder Gio Urshela in a trade with the Twins. Now, they take a step towards fixing an outfield that had a major question mark alongside Mike Trout and Taylor Ward.

Renfroe should solidify the corner outfield spot opposite Ward. He’s been an above-average hitter in each of the past two seasons, with strikingly similar production for the Red Sox in 2021 and Brewers this year. The former first-rounder has combined for 60 home runs over the last two seasons, following up a 31-homer showing with the Sox with 29 more in Milwaukee. He had an identical .315 on-base percentage in each year but more than offset that modest number with big power production.

The right-handed hitter has hit between .255 and .260 in each of the last two years while slugging around .500 both seasons. He has a cumulative .257/.315/.496 line in just under 1100 plate appearances going back to the start of 2021. His 22.9% strikeout rate is right around average, while he’s walked at a slightly below-average 7.6% clip. He’s a lower-OBP slugger who has particularly decimated left-handed opposition. Renfroe carries a .269/.357/.508 line over that stretch while holding the platoon advantage. He’s had starker on-base concerns but hit for enough power to remain a decent option against right-handed pitching (.252/.292/.491).

That power production is Renfroe’s calling card, but he’s also a viable defender. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him right around league average in right field in each of the last three seasons. Statcast’s range-based metric has Renfroe a few runs below average annually, but he compensates for his fringy athleticism with top-tier arm strength. He’s picked up double-digit assists in each of the last two years, and he leads all MLB outfielders with 27 baserunners cut down in that time.

Renfroe’s excellent arm strength has kept him primarily in right field over the past few years, although he did log a number of innings in left earlier in his career. If he steps into right field at Angel Stadium, that’d push Ward over to left field. Former top prospect Jo Adell now looks as if he’ll be relegated to fourth outfield/bench duty after beginning his career with a .215/.259/.356 showing in roughly one full season’s worth of games. Adell is still just 23 years old and coming off a solid year in Triple-A Salt Lake, but the Angels don’t appear prepared to count on him for a regular role as they look to vault their way into the playoff picture in 2023.

As with last week’s Urshela trade, the Renfroe acquisition is about deepening the lineup with a productive but not elite veteran for a season. Renfroe turns 31 in January and is in his final season of club control. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an $11.2MM salary, and he’ll be a free agent at the end of the year. That’s a reasonable sum for a player of this caliber, but one moderately expensive season of arbitration control over a lower-OBP corner slugger isn’t teeming with trade value. Renfroe is the second player of that ilk dealt in as many weeks.

The Blue Jays sent Teoscar Hernández to the Mariners for reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko. That trade came as a surprise to a number of Toronto fans, but each of Swanson and Macko are arguably more appealing players than any of the trio of pitchers Milwaukee received in this swap. Hernández is a better hitter than Renfroe is, but the gap between the former’s .282/.332/.508 line over the past two seasons and the latter’s production isn’t all that dramatic. Nevertheless, Renfroe has had a hard time sticking in any one spot as his price tag has escalated throughout his arbitration seasons. The Halos will be his fifth team in as many years, as he’s successively played for the Padres, Rays, Red Sox and Brewers going back to 2019.

Adding his projected arbitration salary pushes the Halos’ estimated 2023 payroll up to around $192MM, per Roster Resource. That’d be the highest mark in franchise history, narrowly topping their approximate $189MM figure from this past season. They’re up to roughly $206MM in luxury tax commitments, around $27MM shy of the $233MM base threshold. The franchise’s spending capacity this winter has been in question with owner Arte Moreno exploring a sale of the franchise. There’s still no indication the club is willing to approach luxury tax territory, but the acquisitions of Anderson, Urshela and Renfroe have tacked on an estimated $31.9MM in 2023 spending. The latter two players represent one-year investments, but it seems Moreno is affording general manager Perry Minasian and his group some leeway to add to the roster in advance of the club’s final season of control over defending AL MVP runner-up Shohei Ohtani.

The Brewers add a trio of pitchers, two of whom already have big league experience. Junk is a former 22nd-round pick of the Yankees. He went to the Halos in the 2021 deadline deal that sent southpaw Andrew Heaney to the Bronx. The right-hander has pitched in seven MLB games over the past two seasons, starting six. He’s allowed a 4.74 ERA through 24 2/3 innings, striking out a below-average 19.4% of opponents but posting a sterling 4.4% walk rate.

Junk, 27 in January, leans primarily on a low-80s slider which prospect evaluators suggest could be an above-average pitch. He has decent spin on his 92-93 MPH four-seam but hasn’t cemented himself on a big league staff to this point. He spent most of this year on optional assignment to Salt Lake, where he posted a 4.64 ERA through 73 2/3 innings as a starter in a hitter-friendly environment. His 22.1% strikeout percentage was a touch below average, but he only walked 5.8% of opponents. The Seattle University product still has a pair of minor league option years remaining and can bounce between Milwaukee and Triple-A Nashville as rotation or middle relief depth.

Peguero, on the other hand, is a pure reliever. The righty debuted with three appearances as a COVID replacement late in the 2021 season. He earned a permanent 40-man roster spot last offseason and appeared in 13 games this year. Tasked with low-leverage innings, Peguero put up a 7.27 ERA across 17 1/3 innings. He only struck out 15.6% of opponents but got swinging strikes on a more impressive 12% of his total pitches. The Dominican Republic native induced grounders on roughly half the batted balls he surrendered in the majors.

He also had an excellent year in Salt Lake, where he tossed 44 1/3 frames of 2.84 ERA ball. Peguero fanned 27.5% of batters faced against a quality 7.1% walk rate and racked up grounders at a huge 57.5% clip. Like Junk, Peguero leaned primarily on a slider during his MLB look, although he throws much harder. Peguero’s slider checked in at 91 MPH on average while his fastball sat just north of 96. He turns 26 in March and also has two options remaining, so the Brewers can deploy him as an up-and-down middle reliever while hoping he can translate his Triple-A success against big league opponents.

Seminaris went in the fifth round in the 2020 draft out of Long Beach State. A 6’0″ southpaw, he wasn’t ranked among the top 30 prospects in the Anaheim system at Baseball America. He traversed three minor league levels this year, showing well at High-A against younger competition but struggling as he climbed the minor league ladder. Altogether, he worked 101 2/3 frames of 3.54 ERA ball with a 22.1% strikeout rate and an 8.7% walk percentage. He’s not on the 40-man roster but will have to be added by the end of the 2023 season or be exposed in the Rule 5 draft.

While Milwaukee clearly likes all three mid-20’s hurlers, they’re each flexible depth options. Surely, a key motivator in the deal was reallocating Renfroe’s hefty arbitration projection. Slashing payroll wasn’t the sole impetus for the trade — the Brewers could’ve simply non-tendered Renfroe last week if they were committed to getting his money off the books — but GM Matt Arnold and his staff elected to clear some payroll room while bringing in a few depth arms of note.

The Brewers are projected for a salary around $115MM at Roster Resource thanks largely to an arbitration class that still includes Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Willy Adames, among others. That’s about $17MM shy of this year’s Opening Day mark, and more roster shuffling figures to be on the horizon. Dealing a complementary player like Renfroe doesn’t suggest the Brewers are about to flip any of Burnes, Woodruff or Adames, but Milwaukee could consider moving second baseman Kolten Wong or a depth starter like Adrian Houser or Eric Lauer. They’ve already drawn some interest from the Mariners on Wong and are sure to contemplate a number of ways to try to balance the present and the future.

Milwaukee could now dip into the lower tiers of the free agent corner outfield market to backfill for Renfroe’s absence, with Tyrone Taylor standing as the current favorite for playing time alongside Christian Yelich and Garrett Mitchell in the outfield. Highly-touted young players like Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer could play their way into the mix midseason, but it’d be a surprise if the Brewers didn’t add at least one veteran outfielder before Opening Day.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Phillies Extend Dave Dombrowski Through 2027

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The Phillies have agreed to a three-year contract extension with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, reports Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (Twitter links). He was already signed through 2024, meaning Dombrowski will now run baseball operations in Philadelphia through the 2027 season. The team announced the extension shortly after Salisbury’s report.

Hired as the first person to ever hold the “president of baseball operations” title for the Phillies back in 2020, Dombrowski is now set to be entrenched atop the Phillies’ baseball operations hierarchy for another half decade.

It’s been a short but thus-far successful run for Dombrowski, even if a majority of the Phillies’ 2022 World Series roster — including Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura and Seranthony Dominguez — was inherited from the prior regime. Dombrowski was running the ship when the team agreed to re-sign catcher J.T. Realmuto to a five-year contract, and the first year of his four-year investment in Kyle Schwarber has paid considerable dividends. Trades made to acquire Jose Alvarado, David Robertson, Kyle Gibson, Garrett Stubbs, Noah Syndergaard and Edmundo Sosa have all worked out well thus far.

Beyond the players on the field, Dombrowski deserves credit for the leadership placed around them. The decision to fire veteran manager Joe Girardi, who was hired as skipper before Dombrowski joined the organization, and replace him with bench coach Rob Thomson was likely not one that was made lightly. Dombrowski also brought hitting coach Kevin Long into the fold in the 2021-22 offseason and has already extended him through the 2025 season.

As with any baseball operations leader, Dombrowski’s tenure in Philadelphia contains its share of both hits and misses. A two-year deal to re-sign Didi Gregorius proved regrettable, and the free-agent moves made to address the bullpen (Jeurys Familia, Brad Hand, Archie Bradley, Corey Knebel) haven’t panned out as hoped.

Looking specifically at the past year, the Phils entered the 2021-22 offseason with glaring holes both at shortstop and in center field, and neither was addressed heading into the 2022 season. Rather than addressing those areas and looking to improve a team known as one of the worst defensive clubs in the league over the past ten years or so, the Dombrowski-led Phillies instead inked Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to long-term contracts, committing to playing one in the field full-time in the process. Now, with Harper set for elbow surgery and likely in need of increased DH time in 2023, both Castellanos and Schwarber will again be thrust into regular defensive work. Castellanos’ first year with the Phils was a disappointment, and he’ll be looking for a rebound effort in 2023.

At shortstop, Dombrowski bucked the “farm system destroyer” narrative and held onto top prospect Bryson Stott, giving him a chance at the everyday job even in spite of a stacked free-agent class of shortstops last winter. Stott didn’t hit much and looked better at second base than at shortstop, though, and the Phillies now seem poised to be players in what is again a deep collection of shortstops.

Still, the decision to hang onto Stott and top pitching prospects Andrew Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry runs somewhat counter to Dombrowski’s prior penchant for aggressive trades that thin out the top end of a farm system in the name of win-now moves. The only truly high-end prospect he’s traded away is catcher Logan O’Hoppe, who was facing a Realmuto-sized roadblock to playing time in Philadelphia. That swap brough Brandon Marsh to the Phils, and the early returns during the regular season were strong: Marsh slashed .288/.319/.455 with the Phillies, and the hope is that he can hold down the fort in center field on a long-term basis.

Setting aside the dissection of Dombrowski’s transactions in a still relatively limited tenure with the organization, it’s clear that owner John Middleton is comfortable working with Dombrowski and believes he and GM Sam Fuld are the right pairing to continue guiding the Phillies’ World Series aspirations. Dombrowski has won World Series titles with two different organizations and has now overseen World Series berths with a whopping four organizations. That type of success across multiple franchises is generally unparalleled, and Dombrowski now potentially has five more opportunities to secure his third World Series ring with his third different organization.

Dodgers Non-Tender Cody Bellinger

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The Dodgers will not tender a contract to Cody Bellinger for his final year of arbitration eligibility, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected the 2019 NL MVP for a salary around $18.1MM. Bellinger will be a free agent once the team officially announces the decision.

It’s not a surprising move at this point, but it’s one nobody would’ve foreseen when Bellinger was collecting his MVP trophy three years ago. He blasted 47 home runs that season and posted an overall .305/.406/.629 line across 661 plate appearances. The left-handed hitter looked to have cemented himself as one of the sport’s preeminent sluggers, and he carried a career .278/.368/.559 mark in over 1800 plate appearances heading into 2020. At age 24, Bellinger seemed a budding superstar.

Unfortunately, things have gone south over the past few seasons. He stumbled a bit during the abbreviated 2020 campaign, putting up a .239/.333/.455 line in 56 games. That was still above-average production but a notable step back from the numbers of his first few seasons. A putrid .245 batting average on balls in play seemed to be a major cause of that, and one could certainly point to the anomalous circumstances that year in anticipating a bounceback.

That’s not how things have played out, seemingly in part due to an ill-advised celebration that postseason. Bellinger dislocated his right shoulder celebrating a crucial home run in Game 7 of the 2020 NLCS. While he played out the postseason, he underwent surgery in mid-November. Bellinger was healthy enough to open the 2021 campaign on the roster, but he battled a series of unrelated leg and rib issues. In between, his slash line plummeted to a meager .165/.240/.302 in 95 games.

L.A. brought him back last winter, avoiding arbitration on a $17MM salary. Their hoped-for bounceback season didn’t really materialize, though. Bellinger’s 2022 numbers were improved from the prior year but nowhere near those of previous seasons. In 550 trips to the plate, he put up a .210/.265/.389 mark. That brings him to exactly 900 plate appearances over the past two years, in which he’s hit .193/.256/.355. His on-base percentage is lowest among the 151 hitters with 900+ trips to the dish, while his batting average bests only that of Joey Gallo. He’s sixth from the bottom in slugging.

Bellinger’s batted ball metrics and power output have taken a step back, which could indicate he’s never quite regained the explosiveness in his swing after the shoulder surgery. Yet he’s also seen a marked uptick in strikeouts, fanning 27.1% of the time after cutting his strikeout rate below 18% in 2019-20. His walk percentage fell to a below-average 7.7%, and manager Dave Roberts has increasingly dropped him further in the batting order.

With two full seasons of huge offensive struggles under his belt, the Dodgers have elected to move on rather than pay the two-time All-Star in the neighborhood of $18MM. That always looked to be more than even the high-spending franchise would be willing to pay, and it stands to reason no other club was willing to offer that kind of salary either. The Dodgers have presumably spent the past few weeks gauging the trade market for Bellinger, and that he’ll be cut loose for no return indicates there wasn’t much interest at that price point.

That said, there’s no question he’ll be of interest to teams as a bounceback target at a lower cost. Bellinger, to his credit, hasn’t allowed his offensive struggles to affect his work in the field. He’s an elite runner who has moved full-time to center field after coming up as a first baseman and corner outfielder. Defensive Runs Saved has rated him as a roughly average center fielder the last two years, but Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast have pegged him above par. Statcast has been most bullish, rating him as seven runs above average in just under 1900 innings of center field work since the start of the 2021 campaign.

Slightly above-average center field defense and plus baserunning gives Bellinger a decent floor even if he’s not hitting well, although he’s obviously quite a bit more of an upside play than a traditional glove-only outfielder. He’ll look for a complete reset offensively but heading into his age-27 campaign, he could certainly still rediscover some of his old form at the plate.

Non-tendered players aren’t subject to waivers, so Bellinger will be a free agent. He and his representatives at the Boras Corporation will have the opportunity to gauge interest from other teams, and they’ll benefit from a lack of supply in center field. Excepting Aaron Judge, former Met Brandon Nimmo is the top center fielder available in free agency. Bellinger arguably becomes the next-best option in a class that also includes Kevin Kiermaier, Adam Duvall and Jackie Bradley Jr.

The Mets, Blue Jays, Marlins, Rangers, Rays, Rockies, Astros, Padres and Giants (a team run by former L.A. executive Farhan Zaidi) could all look externally for center help. They’re speculative fits for Bellinger, and the Dodgers themselves could remain in contact about a reunion at a lower price point.

Los Angeles could give Mookie Betts, Chris Taylor or Trayce Thompson increased center field run, but it stands to reason they’ll also scour the market for help outside the organization. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (on Twitter) they’re taking a look at Kiermaier as part of that search.

Subtracting Bellinger’s arbitration projection leaves L.A. with around $152MM in projected 2023 payroll, per Roster Resource, pending additional arbitration decisions. They’re estimated around $169MM in luxury tax obligations, leaving them well shy of next year’s $233MM base tax threshold. That doesn’t include an approximate $20MM salary for Clayton Kershaw, who’s reportedly nearing a deal to re-sign. Still, the Dodgers should have plenty of financial breathing room to address shortstop, center field, third base and rotation depth that look like the team’s biggest question marks early in the offseason.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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