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Anibal Sanchez Not Planning To Pitch In 2021

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Aníbal Sánchez is no longer planning to pitch this season, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). While Sánchez received some major league offers, according to Heyman, none were at his desired level. Specifically, Sánchez was seeking an incentive-laden deal that would’ve increased the contract’s value based on the number of games he started. Apparently, no teams put forth an offer of that kind to his liking.

Sánchez didn’t sign over the winter due to concerns about COVID-19 and accompanying protocols. He conducted a few showcases for teams during the early part of the regular season, but there’d been no word of his plans since late April. It’s now clear he won’t be signing anywhere this year.

There’s no indication Sánchez is contemplating formal retirement at this point, but it’s not out of the question he’s already made his last MLB appearance. Sánchez will be 38 years old by the start of the 2022 season, and it’s difficult to imagine he’ll receive loftier offers next winter after sitting out the year. The veteran righty was a productive member of the Nationals’ 2019 World Series winner, but he’s coming off a difficult 2020 campaign.

Sánchez has appeared in parts of fifteen major league seasons. He’s made 350 appearances (327 starts) and worked to a 4.05 ERA/4.08 SIERA across 1948 1/3 innings. Sánchez’s best season to date came with the Tigers in 2013, when he led the American League in ERA (2.57) and FIP (2.39) en route to a fourth-place finish in AL Cy Young award voting.

Marlins, Starling Marte End Extension Talks; At Least Three Teams Interested In Trades

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Reports from earlier today indicated that Starling Marte rejected the Marlins’ offer of a three-year, $30MM contract extension, making it all the more likely that the outfielder would be dealt prior to the July 30 trade deadline.  Contract negotiations are now over between the two sides, according to The Miami Herald’s Craig Mish (Twitter links), as Marte didn’t want the talks to become a distraction for him as the second half of the season progresses.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) adds the detail that the Marlins’ extension offer was greater than three years and $30MM, but regardless, it now seems that the team will focus on dealing Marte.  As one might expect, Marte is already drawing interest from multiple suitors, as Heyman writes that the Astros, Phillies, and Yankees are three of the teams who have been in touch with the Marlins about the former All-Star.

Marte would be an upgrade for just about any team, considering his impressive .288/.387/.443 slash line, seven home runs over 249 plate appearances this season (though Statcast hints at some regression).  In addition to his bat, the 32-year-old Marte also has 20 steals from 23 chances and he has displayed some impressive glovework in center field.

This is all music to the ears of outfield-needy teams like Houston, Philadelphia, and New York.  The Astros have gotten very solid results both offensively and defensively from Myles Straw and Chas McCormick up the middle, but there is no doubt Marte would represent a big upgrade.  For the Phillies and Yankees, center field has been a revolving door thanks to injuries.

In terms of contract, Marte is owed around $5.1MM of his original $12.5MM salary for the 2021 season.  This adds another wrinkle to the trade market, as Marte’s three known suitors are all very close to exceeding the $210MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold.  Marte alone could conceivably be added with a bit of maneuvering under the tax line, but that would eliminate pretty much all available payroll space for further trade needs like pitching.

Throughout the winter and into the season, the Yankees and Astros have in particular made several moves indicating that staying under the tax line (and avoiding an escalating repeater penalty) is a priority, though both Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner and Astros GM James Click recently stated that they would go over the CBT line in the right circumstance.  The Phils have never exceeded the luxury tax line, but owner John Middleton has said in the past that he would also be willing to make a tax payment for a difference-making addition.

An argument can certainly be made that Marte is such an addition, though it is also possible that he could be acquired in a trade that wouldn’t require any CBT overage.  The Marlins could be more willing to eat most or all of Marte’s salary if they were offered higher-caliber prospects, though then it becomes a question of just how much prospect value any of the three teams would want to surrender for a rental player.  Marte could also be included as part of a larger trade package that might see multiple players swap clubs, with perhaps a larger contract sent back Miami’s way as some kind of salary offset.

Angels Promote Brandon Marsh

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The Angels announced they’re promoting top outfield prospect Brandon Marsh before today’s game against the Mariners. The 23-year-old will get the start in center field this afternoon, making his major league debut in the process. Infielder Kean Wong was optioned to Triple-A Salt Lake to create active roster space. Marsh was already selected to the 40-man roster last winter to keep him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft.

Marsh is a consensus top prospect, checking in among the game’s top 50 farmhands in the estimation of each of Baseball America, Keith Law of the Athletic, and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs entering the season. Longenhagen was the most bullish, slotting him 15th overall (and ninth on FanGraphs’ updated board). He wrote preseason that Marsh possessed All-Star upside thanks to a combination of solid bat-to-ball skills, above-average raw power, and athleticism that enables him to play a quality center field. Those sentiments were echoed by BA and Law, with each outlet lauding his ceiling on both sides of the ball.

Selected by the Angels in the second round of the 2016 draft out of a Georgia high school, Marsh hit very well over his first few seasons in pro ball. He posted strong numbers from 2017-18 before a breakout 2019 campaign. Despite spending that year in a pitcher-friendly Double-A environment, Marsh hit a robust .300/.383/.428 over 412 plate appearances. That vaulted him near the top of prospect lists during the 2019-20 offseason, and he retained that status after spending all of last year at the alternate training site.

Marsh has spent this season with Salt Lake. A month-long injured list stint due to right shoulder inflammation has kept him to 110 plate appearances, over which he’s hit .255/.364/.468 with three homers. That’s less impressive than Marsh’s output at the lower levels — once one adjusts for the hitter-friendly Triple-A setting — but it’s still above-average production for a young player taking his first crack at the level.

The left-handed hitting Marsh has put up better than average numbers at every level of his minor league career, compiling an overall .288/.371/.440 slash line over four professional seasons. He’s demonstrated an advanced feel for the strike zone, walking at a lofty 11.2% clip against a slightly-elevated 24.3% strikeout rate.

Obviously, the center field job will go back to Mike Trout whenever the sport’s best player is ready to return from the injured list. Trout is still yet to embark upon a minor league rehab assignment, though, leaving room for Marsh to handle a regular workload for at least the next couple weeks. With Justin Upton also on the IL and recent free agent signee Adam Eaton in right field, there should be room for Marsh to stick around even after Trout’s return if his performance so merits.

Whether or not Marsh sticks with the big league club for good, his promotion comes late enough in the season to prevent him from accruing a full year of major league service. Marsh won’t reach free agency until after the 2027 season at the earliest. The window for Super Two eligibility has also passed, meaning he won’t be eligible for arbitration until at least 2025. Future optional assignments could push back that service timeline.

Starling Marte Reportedly Rejects Marlins’ $30MM Extension Offer

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The Marlins offered star outfielder Starling Marte a three-year, $30MM contract extension, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Marte rejected the proposal, and Nightengale writes there’s now “a great chance” the impending free agent will be traded in advance of the July 30 deadline.

It’s not especially surprising to hear Marte and his representatives at Rep 1 Baseball passed on a $30MM proposal. Jordan McPherson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reported last month that Marte was seeking a three or four year deal that paid around $50MM.

Given how well Marte has played this year, that $50MM ask certainly doesn’t seem outlandish. He’s scheduled to hit free agency as the top center fielder available (excluding utilityman Chris Taylor) thanks to an impressive .286/.389/.443 line across 240 plate appearances. Marte has always been a productive player, but he’s hitting at a career-best level this year by virtue of a more patient approach. Marte’s chasing pitches outside the strike zone at the lowest rate of his career, enabling a personal-best 12.1% walk percentage. He’s making a strong rate of hard contact and barreling up a career-high 10.2% of batted balls, per Statcast, a mark that places him in the 66th percentile leaguewide.

Marte turns 33 years old in October, which will cap the length of any new deal. Still, he’s not yet shown any ill effects of aging. In addition to his strong offense, Marte’s still running the bases and defending at a high level. His sprint speed is down a bit relative to his physical peak, but he’s still an 85th percentile runner. And advanced defensive metrics have pegged his glovework as above-average to plus, so there wouldn’t seem to be any real concern about his ability to hold up in center field over the next couple seasons.

The Marlins’ books are almost completely empty for 2022 and beyond, so there’s room for the club to up their offer to Marte if they’d like him to stick around. If they’re unwilling to approach Marte’s asking price on a long-term investment, then a trade indeed seems the likeliest course of action. At 40-51, the Fish sit in last place in the NL East and are almost certain to miss the playoffs in 2021. The Marlins could hang onto Marte through the end of the year and make him a qualifying offer, but contending clubs seem likelier to offer a prospect return over the next couple weeks that’s more valuable than the compensatory draft choice Miami would receive if Marte rejected a QO and signed elsewhere.

A handful of contenders have received little to no production from their center fielders this season. The Yankees, Braves, Phillies, Rays, Reds, Blue Jays, Mariners, Brewers and Red Sox have all received below-average production at the position. A few of those teams (including Tampa Bay, Toronto, Milwaukee and Boston) have viable in-house alternatives that could dissuade them pursuing a center field upgrade. It’s not clear whether the Yankees and Mariners are in position to pursue an impending free agent at the deadline. The Braves’ and Phillies’ presence within the division could present an obstacle to a deal.

While there are potential roadblocks to a Marte trade in any specific case, it stands to reason a few of those center field-needy clubs will be in contact with Miami. Teams seeking corner outfield help could certainly look to Marte as well. He has plenty of early-career experience in left field, or an acquiring team could bump their incumbent center fielder to a corner to accommodate a Marte pickup. The reported lack of progress on extension talks will make Marte one of the top position player trade candidates over the next twelve days.

Mets To Place Jacob deGrom On Injured List

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The Mets are placing Jacob deGrom on the injured list, manager Luis Rojas told reporters (including Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News) this morning. He continues to deal with forearm tightness and won’t throw until that subsides.

It’s not an unexpected development after deGrom’s throwing program was halted yesterday. Nevertheless, it’s still a tough blow to a Mets team that holds a meager 2.5 game lead in the National League East. The diagnosis of forearm tightness and seemingly uncertain recovery timeline are even more alarming, given deGrom’s status as the best pitcher in the league. (deGrom underwent a Tommy John surgery as a prospect back in 2010).

deGrom has dealt with a few health issues over the course of the season. He missed a couple weeks with side tightness earlier in the year, and he’s also been forced out of starts early with forearm and shoulder soreness. Neither of the previous arm problems required an IL stint, but his most recent injury will land him on the shelf.

When healthy, deGrom has been truly otherworldly. The two-time Cy Young award winner has worked to a 1.08 ERA across 92 innings. He has struck out an incredible 45.1% of opposing hitters, while walking just 3.4% of batters faced. A healthy second half would make him the prohibitive favorite to land a third Cy Young (and perhaps win the NL MVP award), but it’s now unclear when he’ll again take the mound.

Pirates Sign First Overall Pick Henry Davis

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The Pirates announced this morning they’ve come to an agreement with first overall draft pick  Henry Davis. Davis will receive a $6.5MM signing bonus, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

The #1 overall pick came with an accompanying slot value of $8.4153MM, so Davis’ bonus lands a little less than $2MM under slot. Pittsburgh was surely aware of his willingness to sign for less than slot value before selecting him, with his bonus demands playing a role in their eventual choice.

The Pirates’ collection of picks came with a cumulative bonus pool of $14.394MM, the largest amount in this year’s class. Teams are permitted to exceed their bonus pool by up to five percent without forfeiting future draft choices, giving Pittsburgh around $15.11MM to allot to their draftees among the top ten rounds. With Davis signed, the Pirates still have around $8.61MM to spend on their crop of Day Two selections.

Davis, a 21-year-old catcher out of Louisville, catapulted himself into the mix for the No. 1 overall selection with a massive junior season. The Bedford, N.Y. native raked at a .370/.482/.663 clip and clubbed 15 home runs to go along with nine doubles — all while walking (31 times) more than he struck out (24).

Davis wasn’t the consensus or even the expected top pick in the draft, although the majority of pre-draft rankings listed him as a Top 5 overall talent. He ranked No. 2 at FanGraphs and at The Athletic; No. 4 at Baseball America and ESPN; and No. 5 at MLB.com, for instance. The Pirates’ decision to opt for Davis saved them a little bit of money with respect to the top overall draft slot, but any savings figure to be reallocated to an impressive crop of top-ranked talent they managed to secure at draft slots further down the board.

As Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper highlights, the Pirates’ first four selections — the fourth of which came at No. 72 overall — were all regarded as first-round talents in BA’s rankings. Left-hander Anthony Solometo, outfielder Lonnie White Jr. and right-hander/shortstop Bubba Chandler all ranked within BA’s top 32 players. Not every outlet was quite as bullish on that trio, but all were considered Top 75 talents; Chandler, in particular, was highly regarded. Specific rankings aside, it’s an impressive crop of talent to carry away from a single draft.

The Bucs will need to sign all four, of course, in order for that impressive group to pay dividends, but it appears they have a decent chance at doing so. Chandler, who was Clemson recruit as a quarterback, already told ESPN’s Tom VanHaaren this week that he intends to sign with the Pirates (Twitter link). Pittsburgh likely also saved some money with their picks in the fifth, sixth and ninth rounds by drafting college seniors, who frequently sign well below slot.

The selection of Davis immediately adds one of the game’s most highly regarded catching prospects to a Pirates system that second-year GM Ben Cherington and his front office are rapidly working to rebuild. Davis is lauded for his blend of hit tool, excellent power and plus or plus-plus arm strength. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen calls him a “rare offensive talent for a backstop.” Both Longenhagen and The Athletic’s Keith Law acknowledge some elements of his defensive game that need polish, but Law opines Davis will “outwork everyone to become an above-average defender.” ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel calls him the draft’s “best college hitter by a good margin,” and virtually every report on Davis notes that he has more than enough bat to make it work at another position even if he doesn’t stick behind the dish.

Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette was first to report the sides had reached an agreement.

Mets Place Francisco Lindor On 10-Day Injured List

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4:37PM: Speaking to The Athletic’s Tim Britton and other reporters, Lindor said he has a Grade 2 oblique strain, and indicated that he’ll miss time well beyond the 10-day minimum.  “I would love to say I’m day-to-day but I’m not.  This is more like week-to-week at the beginning and we’ll see how I bounce back,” Lindor said.

3:24PM: Shortstop Francisco Lindor has been placed on the 10-day injured list, the Mets announced.  Lindor has been sidelined due to a right oblique strain, a day after he exited a game because of soreness in his side.  Infielder/outfielder Travis Blankenhorn has been called up from Triple-A to take Lindor’s spot on the active roster.

No announcement has yet been made about the severity of the strain, and given the timing, a more serious oblique issue could threaten the remainder of Lindor’s regular season, and perhaps into the postseason should the Mets reach the playoffs.  This is only the second time Lindor has been placed on the IL during his seven Major League seasons, as the shortstop’s durability has added to his status as one of the game’s better all-around players during that stretch.

Lindor’s first season in New York, however, has come with some difficulties.  After being acquired in a blockbuster trade from the Indians and then signing a whopping ten-year, $341MM contract extension, Lindor has begun his Mets tenure by hitting only .228/.326/.376 in 364 plate appearances.  This modest slash line represents a small step down from Lindor’s average numbers in his final season with the Indians — since the start of the 2020 campaign, Lindor has roughly a full season’s worth of playing time (630 PA, 148 games) and delivered an exactly average 100 wRC+ while hitting .241/.330/.393 with 19 home runs.

With an .821 OPS over his last 130 PA, Lindor was starting to heat up at the plate, which surely makes his injury all the more frustrating.  It also adds another layer of intrigue to the Mets’ trade deadline plans, since shortstop may become a need if Lindor is indeed facing a long absence.  New York was already rumored to be looking at such infielders as Kris Bryant and Asdrubal Cabrera to address a need at third base, and that search could potentially expand to such trade candidates as Trevor Story, Javier Baez, or Andrelton Simmons.  Jonathan Villar and Luis Guillorme are the in-house shortstop option, and Villar has been solid as the Mets’ regular third baseman this year.

Jacob deGrom Halts Throwing Due To Forearm Tightness

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Mets ace Jacob deGrom has been dealing with tightness in his right forearm and has been shut down until the discomfort subsides.  Manager Luis Rojas told Deesha Thosar of The New York Daily News (Twitter links), SNY’s Steve Gelbs, and other reporters that an MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage to deGrom’s forearm.

The problem existed prior the All-Star break, as Rojas said deGrom felt tightness while throwing a bullpen session last weekend.  The forearm tightness continued during a side session on Friday, so the Mets opted to halt deGrom’s throwing so further testing could be done.  No mention was made of the injured list, though an IL stint seems inevitable considering that the Mets will surely take every precaution in making sure deGrom is fully healthy.

DeGrom has already hit the IL once this season, missing two weeks due to tightness in his right side.  Despite that missed time and other nagging injuries, the right-hander is in the midst of his most spectacular season yet, with a record-challenging 1.08 ERA over 92 innings and a wealth of league-leading numbers in most major categories (14.3 K/9, 13.27 K/BB rate, 1.1 BB/9, and an absurd 365 ERA+).

Losing deGrom for any amount of time would be a major blow to a Mets team hanging onto first place in the NL East, and the specter of a long-term forearm injury would be nothing short of devastating.  DeGrom has a Tommy John surgery on his record, as he underwent the procedure just a few months after the Mets selected him in the ninth round of the 2010 draft.  The major surgery and a few other lesser arm problems over the years didn’t stop deGrom from becoming arguably the best pitcher of his generation, winning NL Cy Young Awards in 2018-19 and looking to be on track for a third this season.

There is no way to actually replace deGrom in the event of a longer-term absence, and the task will be even more difficult for a Mets team that was already looking to add some rotation help at the trade deadline.  The trio of deGrom, Marcus Stroman, and Taijuan Walker has been excellent, while the back end of the rotation has been a revolving door thanks to injuries and underperformance.  The team is hopeful that Carlos Carrasco will be able to make his Mets debut soon, and rookie Tylor Megill has started his career off with a 3.50 ERA in 18 innings, perhaps earning a longer look if New York can’t find a more experienced option on the trade market.

White Sox, Lance Lynn Agree To Two-Year, $38MM Extension

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The White Sox and Lance Lynn have agreed to a two-year, $38MM extension with a third-year club option that could keep Lynn in Chicago through the 2024 season, the team announced.

The White Sox’ acquisition of Lynn this past winter has thus far proved worthwhile. As you may recall, last December 8th, Chicago sent right-hander Dane Dunning and lefty Avery Weems to the Rangers in exchange for Lynn, who was scheduled to hit free agency after 2021. Dunning has proved himself a capable rotation arm, and on a strict measure of value, it’s possible to give the “trade win” to Texas. Dunning, after all, has produced 1.1 rWAR, and the Rangers maintain control for another five seasons, not to mention six years of control for Weems, should he reach his potential.

In actuality, the deal speaks to the changing needs of franchises moving in different directions. The White Sox are no doubt thrilled with their return, not only because Lynn has produced 3.4 rWAR while making the second All-Star game of his career, but because of the peripheral benefits that came with upgrading from Dunning to Lynn. Lynn’s track record brought a slimmer margin for error, he brings a veteran presence to the clubhouse, familiarity with manager Tony La Russa, and the fiery, chip-on-the-shoulder quality that’s long been a staple of South Side baseball.

Sure enough, the 34-year-old has found a home in Chicago, where he’ll now stay through at least the 2023 season. After making $9.33MM this year in the final season of the three-year, $30MM deal he signed with Texas prior to 2019, Lynn will make $18.5MM in each of the next two seasons.

The White Sox hold an $18MM option for 2024 that includes a $1MM buyout, per MLB.com’s Scott Merkin (via Twitter). There are bonuses, as well, should Lynn finish in the top-3 for Cy Young voting, adds MLB Networks Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Though Lynn has never been a top-3 finisher for the award, he has finished in the top-6 in each of the past two seasons.

Lynn’s 94 mph heater is where its been the past couple of seasons, though he’s dropped its usage from around 50 percent to 43.1 percent. The cutter has picked up the slack, going from 22.2 percent usage last year to 32.2 percent this season. Interestingly, Lynn sticks almost entirely to the fastball, cutter, sinker mix, only rarely turning to a change-up or more traditional curve/slider like he threw in his youth.

The cutter has taken over as a go-to put away pitch for Lynn. Opponents are hitting just .183 with a .295 xSLG against his 88.5 mph cutter. In terms of the bottom line results, however, Lynn has been just about the same guy in Chicago that he was in Texas: he pounds the zone (44.1 Zone%), plays to contact with a below-average 26.5 CSW%, all while coaxing batters to swing the bat (72.7 Z-Swing%, 49.4 Swing% — both marks being above-average), despite just an average ability to get batters to chase outside the zone (30.9 O-Swing%). All in all, he’s posted a 1.99 ERA/3.20 FIP in 16 starts covering 90 2/3 innings.

Securing Lynn keeps another member of Chicago’s impressive core in place. Carlos Rodon is the only member of the rotation not currently signed through next season. The White Sox control Dallas Keuchel and Lucas Giolito through 2023 and Dylan Cease through 2025. No matter what happens with Rodon now, the White Sox should feel secure about their rotation moving into next season.

The White Sox have been wisely proactive about signing their young core to extensions. Yoan Moncada is under contract through 2024, Eloy Jimenez and Aaron Bummer through 2026, and Luis Robert through 2027. Free agent signings Liam Hendriks and Yasmani Grandal also have contracts that run through 2024 and 2023, respectively. Other young talents like Nick Madrigal, Andrew Vaughn, Michael Kopech and Codi Heuer have yet to even begin the arbitration process.

Securing Lynn, however, was arguably the most important item on GM Rick Hahn’s agenda. Even still, the White Sox should have financial flexibility moving forward. Their luxury tax payroll for 2022 projects to be around $145MM, still well below this season’s $170MM mark. They have just $106MM against the tax on the books for 2023. Those numbers will go up with arbitration raises for Giolito, Evan Marshall and Adam Engel, but not so much as to seriously hinder Chicago’s flexibility, should they want to expand their payroll further while still avoiding the tax.

Those raises, however, will be enough to bring their cash payroll in 2022 already beyond the $133MM they have on the books this season. With Lynn’s extension now in place, the White Sox cash payroll for 2022 sits around $127MM before those arbitration raises. Still, given Chicago’s market and the aggressiveness they’ve shown to build this contender, they should still have room to grow.

Cubs Will Reportedly Try Again On Rizzo, Baez Extensions Before Exploring Trades

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The Cubs have already traded Joc Pederson to the Braves and are expected to continue selling veteran players in the two weeks leading up to the deadline, but they’ll first take one last effort at hammering out contract extensions with shortstop Javier Baez and first baseman Anthony Rizzo, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

Both Rizzo and Baez have been viewed as extension candidates with the Cubs for the past several years, but neither has worked out a deal to remain in Chicago beyond the 2021 campaign. Rizzo is playing out the second of two option seasons that were included on his original  seven-year, $41MM contract with the club.

Chicago unsurprisingly picked up both of those club options, and Rizzo will end up earning a combined $75MM over a nine-year term. The Cubs reportedly offered Rizzo a five-year, $70MM contract extension back in Spring Training — about $60MM less than the Cardinals guaranteed Paul Goldschmidt for the same portion of his career.

As for Baez, he’s playing out his final arbitration year and earning $11.6MM before reaching free agency. The two parties were reported to be progressing in talks on a long-term deal in spring 2020 before the season was shut down.

Neither Rizzo nor Baez is playing at peak levels in 2021, although both have rebounded somewhat from a down year in 2020. Rizzo posted a .222/.342/.412 batting line in 243 plate appearances last year but is up to .247/.342/.429 so far in 2021. His .182 ISO (slugging minus batting average) is his lowest mark since 2012, as is his 9.7 percent walk rate. Rizzo’s production this season is still comfortably above the league average, by measure of wRC+ (111), but it’s a far cry from his 2014-19 levels (.284/.388/.513, 141 wRC+). He’ll  turn 32 next month, however, which surely impacts the team’s comfort level both in terms of contract length and annual value.

For Baez, the 2020 season was nightmarish. He batted just .203/.238/.360 with career-worst walk (3.0) and strikeout (31.9) percentages as his power dipped to its lowest level since 2016. This year, he’s batting .238/.284/.493 with 21 home runs — some of the best power output of his career. However, Baez’s long-troubling strikeout issues have ballooned to new heights in 2021, as he’s fanned in 36.6 percent of his plate appearances. He remains an excellent defender and won’t turn 29 until the offseason, so there are still several years of Baez’s physical prime left.

Both players are somewhat difficult to value from an extension standpoint at the moment. Rizzo hasn’t bounced all the way back from last year’s downturn in production, and any new contract would be buying out his mid-30s. Baez is younger and enjoying a larger bounceback effort, but his glaring swing-and-miss tendencies and bottom-of-the-scale OBP are difficult to overlook.

The Cubs have tried at various points to lock up both players, and it seems it’ll be even more difficult now to hammer out terms in a two-week window leading up to the trade deadline — particularly when the front office is also dedicating so much time to fielding trade interest in other players on the roster. That’s not to say an extension for either player is out of the question, but the timing isn’t exactly working in their favor. The absence of an extension doesn’t make a trade a foregone conclusion, however; either player would be a candidate for a qualifying offer, which would give the Cubs an opportunity to retain them on a high-priced one-year deal or at least gain a compensatory draft pick should they sign elsewhere.

As notable in Heyman’s report on the likelihood of extension talks with Baez and Rizzo is that it appears no such talks are being planned with star third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant. The former NL Rookie of the Year and NL MVP is enjoying a more substantial rebound season than either of his two aforementioned teammates and figures to enter the offseason as one of the top free agents on the open market. He’ll draw interest from a wide number of contenders as they look to bolster their lineup over the next 14 days, and the absence of any last-ditch extension talks would seem to indicate an acknowledgement of that ship having sailed.

Bryant, Craig Kimbrel, Zach Davies, and Andrew Chafin are among the likeliest Cubs to change hands in the coming days, and they’ll surely receive interest in veterans Willson Contreras and Kyle Hendricks as well. Contreras, however, is controlled through 2022 via arbitration. Hendricks is signed affordably through the 2023 campaign with an option for 2024. Given that level of remaining club control, there’s less urgency to make a deal involving either player, though that won’t stop other teams from trying to pry them loose.

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