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Yankees, Aaron Judge Avoid Arbitration

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The Yankees and Aaron Judge have agreed on a $10.175MM contract to avoid arbitration, reports USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link). That falls in line with MLBTR’s projected salary range of $9.2MM — $10.7MM. Judge is a client of PSI Sports Management.

This was Judge’s second of three trips through the arbitration process and marks a slight pay bump from last season’s $8.5MM mark (prior to prorating salaries). The power-hitting outfielder will be eligible for free agency after the 2022 season.

Judge was hampered by calf injuries last year but remained plenty productive when he was able to take the field. He popped nine home runs in just 114 plate appearances en route to a .257/.336/.554 slash line (140 wRC+). The 28-year-old figures to reprise his role as one of the sport’s most fearsome sluggers in 2021.

Dodgers, Cody Bellinger Avoid Arbitration

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The Dodgers and Cody Bellinger agreed to a one-year, $16.1MM contract ahead of today’s arbitration deadline, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Bellinger made $11.5MM last season, a record amount for a player in his first year of arbitration eligibility. Bellinger is represented by Scott Boras. As a Super-Two player, Bellinger has two more years of arbitration eligibility remaining before his potential free agency following the 2023 season.

Bellinger’s record salary last season came on the heels of a National League MVP season in which he produced a .305/.406/.629 slash line and 7.1 bWAR. While his Dodgers got over the hump to win the World Series this season, Bellinger posted a mere mortal .239/.333/.455 line at the plate during the regular season. Despite seeing a year-over-year drop from 162 wRC+ to 114 wRC+ this season, the Dodgers saw fit to reward Bellinger with a sizable raise regardless. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected Bellinger would have received an arbitration award somewhere between $11.5MM and $15.9MM. The model based on 2020’s numbers alone was definitely too conservative, as he was going to get a raise of some sort, but it’s still interesting to see the Dodgers agree to a number beyond even our highest projection.

While Bellinger’s offensive numbers may have been down, he remained as central as ever to the Dodgers’ efforts. The 25-year-old led all of baseball with eight outs above average while manning centerfield for the Dodgers, which the Dodgers certainly could include in their valuation of Bellinger, even if arbitration panels don’t typically overly weigh defensive metrics such as OAA.

Mets, Brad Hand Discussing Deal

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The Mets are working to sign free agent reliever Brad Hand to a two-year contract, per the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter). A contract is not yet signed, however, and the two sides may not be particularly close to resolution, writes MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Rosenthal adds two other sources in concert with Feinsand’s assessment that the two sides are not as close to a deal as it was first reported.

Hand unwittingly became an emblematic figure for this winter’s free agency when the Indians surprisingly chose to waive him rather than bring him back on a one-year, $10MM deal. When none of the other 29 teams claimed Hand, despite the seemingly favorable terms of his one-year pact, the tenor for the winter was set. Interest has picked up in recent weeks for Hand, however, as the Astros, Blue Jays, and Dodgers all expressed at least some degree of interest along with the Mets, obviously, and the Red Sox, we learned today from Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter).

The White Sox have expressed interest in the past, though they would seem to be less likely to win the bidding for Hand after their pricey accord with Liam Hendriks. Hand would be an equally impactful signing for the Mets, should they ultimately get him. The Mets bullpen ranked 21st in the Majors last season with a 5.01 ERA, 16th by fielding independent pitching with a 4.46 FIP. That said, Hand would buoy any bullpen after a 2020 season with a 2.05 ERA/1.37 FIP over 22 innings with a 33.7 percent strikeout rate, 4.7 percent walk rate, and 26.5 percent groundball rate.

Giants Sign Alex Wood

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The Giants have signed left-hander Alex Wood to a one-year contract, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports. It’s a $3MM guarantee that includes up to $3MM more in performance bonuses for the ACES client, per Maria Guardado of MLB.com.

Wood, an ex-Dodger, will now reunite with Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, who was the Los Angeles general manager earlier in the southpaw’s career. Wood had some of his best seasons when Zaidi was in LA’s front office, and the 30-year-old has largely held his own since he broke into the majors with the Braves in 2013. Overall, Wood has logged a strong 3.45 ERA/3.72 SIERA in a combined 851 2/3 innings, though his drop-off over the past couple of years made him a buy-low type this offseason.

LA sent Wood to Cincinnati as part of a blockbuster deal before the 2019 campaign, and the Reds were surely expecting him to give them quality innings that year. However, nagging back issues held him out for most of the season and limited him to just 35 2/3 frames of 5.80 ERA pitching.

The Dodgers brought Wood back in free agency almost exactly one year ago (Jan. 12, 2020) on a $4MM guarantee, but the reunion didn’t go quite as planned. Wood struggled with shoulder problems in the regular season, in which he tossed 12 2/3 innings and yielded nine earned runs (mostly out of the bullpen). But Wood did rebound during the Dodgers’ World Series-winning playoff run with 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball and eight strikeouts against three walks. Four of those innings, all of which were scoreless, came during the Fall Classic against Tampa Bay.

In an ideal world for the Giants, Wood will perform more like he did in last year’s playoffs than in the regular season. Either way, it’s not all that surprising that they’re bringing him into the fold. Not only does Wood have connections to Zaidi and manager Gabe Kapler, another former member of the Dodgers’ front office, but Giants GM Scott Harris made it known earlier this week that acquiring a lefty starter was a priority for the team.

The Giants lost southpaw Drew Smyly to the Braves earlier in free agency after he served as an inexpensive steal for the club in 2020, which temporarily left them with a righty-laden projected rotation. Wood should provide some balance to a Giants starting staff that figures to rely heavily on two of Wood’s former Reds teammates – Kevin Gausman and Anthony DeSclafani – as well as Johnny Cueto and Logan Webb.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLB Names Theo Epstein Consultant To Commissioner’s Office

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Major League Baseball announced today that former Red Sox general manager and Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein has joined the commissioner’s office as a consultant to Rob Manfred. Specifically, Epstein will focus his efforts on “on-field matters,” including (but presumably not limited to) the effects that proposed rule changes would bring about. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score first reported (via Twitter) that Epstein, who stepped down from his post with the Cubs earlier this winter, would be named to the new post. Epstein turned away interest from other clubs who had interest in hiring him for a new baseball operations jobs.

Theo Epstein | Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

“Theo is one of the most accomplished and thoughtful people in our sport,” commissioner Manfred said in a statement announcing the news. “I am grateful that he has accepted our invitation to complement our ongoing efforts and provide his insights on making the best game in the world even better for the next generation of fans.”

From the moment Epstein stepped down from his position with the Cubs, there’s been speculation about him eventually taking a position with the league. Epstein acknowledged at the time that he had played an inadvertent role in damaging the sport’s aesthetic by helping to pioneer an analytics push that has curbed in-game action. He’s also often been an advocate for expanding the reach and appeal of the game. Some have suggested that Epstein himself may even be an eventual successor for Manfred, although Manfred’s current contract runs through the 2024 season.

“It is an honor to assist the efforts by Major League Baseball and the Competition Committee to improve the on-field product, and I appreciate Commissioner Manfred asking me to be a part of these important conversations,” said Epstein in his own prepared statement. “As the game evolves, we all have an interest in ensuring the changes we see on the field make the game as entertaining and action-packed as possible for the fans, while preserving all that makes baseball so special. I look forward to working with interested parties throughout the industry to help us collectively navigate toward the very best version of our game.”

There’s no indication yet as to whether this is a temporary post or a gateway to a more permanent position within the commissioner’s office. Epstein said when he stepped away from the Cubs and rebuffed interest in new baseball ops ventures that he hoped to spend more time with his family. His status as a consultant with the league will keep him involved in the game but afford him more time at home. Presumably, given Epstein’s track record, other clubs will come calling in future offseasons whether he’s under contract or not — but his status as a consultant at least ostensibly leaves the door open for a return to a club’s front office at some point.

Astros To Sign Pedro Baez

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7:22pm: Baez is promised a total of $12.5MM, per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (Twitter links). That includes a $500K signing bonus, successive salaries of $4.5MM and $5.5MM, and with a $2MM buyout of a $7.5MM club option.

The pact also contains some other financial provisions. Baez could add up to $1MM to his 2022 salary depending upon how many innings he throws. He could boost the buyout to $2.5MM and the option price to $8MM through innings-pitched-based escalators.

6:22pm: The deal includes an option for a third year, escalators and a buyout, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, who tweets that the total value could range from $12MM to $14MM. It’s a team option, per Mark Berman of Fox 26.

5:05pm: The Astros have agreed to a two-year contract with free-agent reliever Pedro Baez, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports. Financial details aren’t yet known, and the deal is pending a physical. Baez is a Kelvin Nova client.

The Astros are landing a proven late-game option in the right-handed Baez, who recorded a 3.03 ERA with a 25.3 percent strikeout rate and an 8.2 percent walk rate over 356 innings as a Dodger from 2014-20. Baez put up a 3.18 ERA during his last season with Los Angeles, though he notched a much less encouraging 4.98 SIERA along the way and easily registered career-worst numbers in average fastball velocity (94.4 mph), strikeout rate (18.6) and swinging-strike percentage (12.4). The year before that, Baez managed 96 mph velo, a strikeout percentage of 25.0 and a 15.0 percent swinging-strike rate.

Addressing the relief corps has been a known point of emphasis this offseason for Astros general manager James Click, who signed former Ray and Marlin Ryne Stanek before agreeing to the Baez deal. The club was also in on Liam Hendriks before he agreed to a pact with the White Sox and has been linked to Brad Hand, Trevor Rosenthal and Alex Colome. Any of the latter three would seemingly be more impactful additions than Baez and Stanek, so the Astros may not be done trying to upgrade a bullpen that dealt with significant health issues in 2020 and finished a middle-of-the-pack 15th in the majors in ERA (4.39).

Padres’ GM Met With Tatis Last Week; No Offer Made Yet

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Jan. 12: Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic report that Preller visited Tatis in the Dominican Republic last week. While that might seem to run contrary to yesterday’s report from Nightengale, ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds that Preller and Tatis did indeed meet, but no offer has been made. Passan characterizes things similarly to Nightengale, suggesting that Preller & Co. expect talks to take place and that last week’s meeting could be a precursor to earnest negotiations. The Padres are optimistic about getting something done before Opening Day, per The Athletic.

Jan. 11: Reports of an imminent contract extension for Tatis may be premature. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Tatis and the Padres have yet to begin contract negotiations. Both sides remain amenable to an extension, and they are likely to begin discussions before spring training in mid-February, writes Nightengale. There is no rush for the two sides, however, and it remains wholly possible that Tatis will begin the 2021 season without a long-term extension in place.

Jan. 9: The Padres are in talks with star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. about a massive contract extension, Dominican news outlet Pio Deportes reports (Twitter link).  The deal would keep Tatis in San Diego into the next decade, as the extension is reportedly an 11-year pact worth $320MM.  According to both Pio Deportes and NBC Sports Bay Area’s Jessica Kleinschmidt (Twitter link), talks seem pretty advanced, as a source tells Kleinschmidt there is “ink on paper” but the deal still might not be finalized within the next week.

The $320MM figure would make Tatis’ extension the sixth-richest contract in baseball history, dropping teammate Manny Machado’s ten-year/$300MM pact down into seventh on the all-time list.  Between these two major deals, hefty contracts for Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer, and even the recent trades that brought Yu Darvish and Blake Snell to San Diego, Padres GM A.J. Preller and team ownership are again indicating that the team is prepared to spend at top-tier levels.

Hosmer’s deal runs through at least the 2025 season, Machado is signed through 2028 with an opt-out after the 2023 season, and the discussed terms of Tatis’ deal would lock him up through the 2031 campaign.  It seems quite possible that the Tatis extension will also include at least one opt-out, as since Tatis only just turned 22 years old, he and his agents at the MVP Sports Group might want at least one crack at entering the market (or extracting more years and money in a renegotiation with the Padres) during Tatis’ prime years.

Tatis is controlled through the 2024 season, via one pre-arbitration year and three years of arbitration eligibility.  The Padres famously placed Tatis on the roster for Opening Day 2019, eschewing a chance to keep him the minors long enough for the team to gain an extra year of control over his services — this decision immediately started Tatis’ service clock but gave the Padres more short-term opportunity in terms of getting a star product on the roster to help the big league team.

An extension would essentially make that debate a moot point, and given how Tatis has performed in the majors, one can hardly fault Preller and company for wanting to unleash him on MLB as quickly as possible.  Despite battling hamstring and back problems in his rookie year, Tatis has hit .301/.374/.582 with 39 homers and 27 steals (in 36 chances) over his 629 plate appearances in 2019-20.  This past season, Tatis earned a Silver Slugger Award and finished fourth in NL MVP voting.

There is obvious risk in committing such money to a player who is still so young, and has played the equivalent of essentially only one full season.  That said, it also makes sense for the Padres to take the leap on a player who showed such promise in the minors (much to the chagrin of the White Sox) and has already made a big impact in San Diego’s lineup.

It’s safe to assume that Tatis’ annual salaries throughout what would have been his arb years would be somewhat limited, in order to give the Padres more flexibility in terms of pure dollars while the money owed to Myers, Snell, and Drew Pomeranz gradually come off the books.  If Tatis’ big annual salaries don’t kick in until 2025, that leaves only Machado, Hosmer, and possibly Ha-Seong Kim (at an $11MM mutual option) still remaining on the payroll.

The Competitive Balance Tax is the other interesting wrinkle, as the average annual value of Tatis’ deal (a little over $29.09MM) would be counted against the Padres’ tax bill for all 11 seasons, no matter what Tatis made in terms of actual dollars.  Assuming Tatis’ extension begins in the 2021 season, San Diego would still have some flexibility under the $210MM tax threshold this year, as their current tax estimate is roughly $165.28MM.  Padres ownership also might not mind exceeding the CBT threshold for a season or two if such an expenditure landed the club a “final piece of the puzzle” type of player for a World Series contender.

Rob Manfred Tells Teams To Plan For 162-Game Season

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Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred told teams Monday to expect spring training to begin on time in February and for a 162-game regular season to occur, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.

While plans could change based on the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s nonetheless a major development right now that the league has informed its clubs that it intends to return to a full schedule this year. MLB could only play 60 regular-season games per team in 2020, and there has since been talk about another shortened campaign in 2021.

Less than a month ago, the league seemed as if it was preparing for a delayed spring training and a second consecutive shortened season, though that idea did not go over well with the MLBPA. The union, led by senior director of collective bargaining and legal Bruce Meyer, quickly fired back, saying that “players are planning on showing up for spring training on time for a full 162-game season as set forth in the collective bargaining agreement and the league’s previously issued schedule.”

While the players accepted a truncated season with prorated pay last year, they don’t seem willing to go that route yet again. Plus, as Nightengale notes, the league does not have the right to unilaterally push back the start of the upcoming season. That could help set the stage to a return to a full campaign, though it’s unknown whether fans will be allowed back in the stands this year.

Of course, if MLB does revert to 162 games with full salaries for players, it could lessen tensions between the league and the union as they try to negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement before the current one expires in December. The two sides have been at loggerheads over multiple issues in the past couple of years, and if MLB would have fought for another season of fewer than 162 games, it likely would have made their relationship worse. Still, the league and its players do have other matters to hash out soon, Nightengale writes, with health and safety protocols, the universal DH and expanded playoffs among them.

Nationals Sign Kyle Schwarber

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1:31PM: The signing has been officially announced by the Nationals.  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the deal also contains an $11MM mutual option for the 2022 season.  That option contains a $3MM buyout, so Schwarber’s guaranteed money breaks down as that $3MM plus $7MM in salary.

9:44AM: The Nationals have signed outfielder Kyle Schwarber to a one-year contract, The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty reports (via Twitter).  The deal will be official once Schwarber passes a physical.  Schwarber will earn $10MM from the one-year pact, as per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  Schwarber is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Dougherty reported last month that the Nats were looking into Schwarber after he was non-tendered by the Cubs, with such teams as the Yankees, Angels, Blue Jays, and Twins also linked to the slugger’s market.  It isn’t surprising that Schwarber generated such interest given that he had a 38-homer season in 2019, and hit .234/.337/.492 (with 94 homers) over 1606 PA with Chicago from 2017-19.

Kyle SchwarberWhile those numbers were solid, however, they weren’t quite the elite-level production Chicago hoped to receive from a player drafted fourth overall in 2014.  Schwarber’s gains with his bat were also rather mitigated by a lot of swings-and-misses (512 strikeouts from 2017-20, the 12th-most of any hitter in baseball in that stretch) and average to subpar baserunning and left field defense.

Things went south for Schwarber in 2020, as he hit only .188/.308/.393 with 11 home runs over 224 plate appearances.  Between these lackluster numbers and the Cubs’ desire to cut payroll, Schwarber was non-tendered so Chicago could avoid paying him an arbitration salary projected to fall somewhere between $7.01MM and $9.3MM.

The fact that Schwarber surpassed even the highest arb projection in landing $10MM from Washington is indicative both of how much interest there must have been in his services, and a sign that the Nats are taking more stock in some of Schwarber’s advanced metrics than his bottom-line 2020 numbers.  A look at Statcast indicates a solid case for a bounce-back performance, as Schwarber still made plenty of hard contact (including a 95th-percentile exit velocity of 92.8 mph).  Between a .219 BABIP and a .302 wOBA that fell well beneath his above-average .330 xwOBA, it can also be argued that Schwarber ran into some bad luck over his sample size of 224 PA.

The Nationals are certainly hoping for a return for the 2017-19 version of Schwarber, as his left-handed bat would nicely augment a D.C. lineup that still leaned mostly towards right-handed hitters even after the addition of switch-hitter Josh Bell.  Between Bell and Schwarber, the Nats have now added two sluggers looking for rebound seasons, and a lot of major power potential to a team that finished 21st among all clubs in home runs last year.

Juan Soto looks to be moving to right field to accommodate Schwarber, a position shift that was known to be under consideration depending on what type of corner outfielder the Nationals brought into the mix.  Schwarber will surely get some DH time should the National League again use the designated hitter next season, which might have the benefit of unlocking some additional hitting potential for Schwarber since he could focus solely on hitting for those games.  It also isn’t out of the question that Washington could break Schwarber in as a first baseman, as Anthony Rizzo’s presence at the position forced the Cubs to deploy Schwarber in the outfield once Schwarber was moved from his original catcher spot.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Former Angels Staffer Alleges Widespread Use Of Foreign Substances

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Last March, the Angels dismissed visiting clubhouse manager Brian “Bubba” Harkins amidst allegations he’d been providing opposing teams’ pitchers foreign substances to aid their grip on the baseball. Harkins responded by filing a defamation action against both the organization and Major League Baseball. The Angels and MLB filed a motion to dismiss the lawsuit last November.

Harkins’ opposition to the defendants’ motion for dismissal was filed in Orange County Superior Court yesterday and obtained by Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. Therein, Harkins alleges widespread use of a rosin and pine tar concoction by MLB pitchers to alter the feel of the ball. Harkins’ assertions involve players from the Angels and opposing teams alike, spanning across the past two decades. In his court filing, Harkins names such players as Troy Percvial and Brendan Donnelly, who last played for the Angels in 2004 and 2006, respectively, as alleged users of the rosin/pine tar mix. Additionally, Harkins includes several recent or current Angel pitchers among those he claims have altered the ball.

Harkins further alleges that MLB has evidence of various high-profile pitchers from other teams using foreign substances to affect the baseball. DiGiovanna relays a text allegedly sent by Yankees starter Gerrit Cole (then with the Astros) to Harkins in January 2019 stating “Hey Bubba, it’s Gerrit Cole, I was wondering if you could help me out with this sticky situation. We don’t see you until May, but we have some road games in April that are in cold weather places. The stuff I had last year seizes up when it gets cold.”

It’s worth noting that none of these specific allegations have been substantiated. To this point, these allegations (more of which can be found in DiGiovanna’s full piece) are limited to Harkins’ pre-trial court filings. The case is set for a January 21 hearing on the defendants’ dismissal motion. If the case were to proceed to trial, Harkins’ attorney will seek at least $4MM in damages, notes DiGiovanna.

More generally, MLB pitchers’ supposed usage of ball-altering foreign substances has become a notable issue throughout the sport in recent months. Last February, then-MLB senior vice president Chris Young sent a memo to teams prohibiting club personnel “from providing, applying, creating, concealing or otherwise facilitating the use of foreign substances by players on the field” (relayed by Ben Lindbergh of the Ringer in July). Nevertheless, Lindbergh spoke with several players who estimated that at least 70% of pitchers were using some form of illegal substance. In November, Eno Sarris of the Athletic spoke with nearly twenty MLB players and coaches about ball-doctoring, and the “median answer was more than three-quarters of the league (uses illicit foreign substances).”

Lindbergh and Sarris note the correlation between the usage of a grip-altering foreign substance and higher spin rates for pitchers. (Both pieces are worth a full read for those interested). This figures to remain a topic of discussion for Major League Baseball, whether or not Harkins’ specific allegations are sufficient to warrant the continuation of his lawsuit.

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