Dodgers Re-Sign Blake Treinen
The Dodgers have re-signed right-handed reliever Blake Treinen to a two-year, $17.5MM guarantee that includes an $8MM club option or a $1.5MM buyout for 2023, Bob Nightengale of USA Today was among those to report. Treinen is a client of Apex Baseball. MLBTR predicted he would land a two-year, $14.5MM guarantee at the beginning of the offseason.
Treinen was something of a buy-low pickup for the Dodgers last winter, though they did have to guarantee the former Athletics standout $10MM. While he was then coming off a disappointing season in Oakland, the move paid off handsomely for the World Series-winning Dodgers, who got 25 2/3 innings of 3.86 ERA ball with a 20.6 percent strikeout rate, 7.5 percent walk rate, and a tremendous 64 percent groundball rate from Treinen. The 32-year-old continued to average upward of 97 mph on his fastball along the way.
Putting aside his issues in 2019, Treinen has been one of the game’s most productive relievers throughout his career. In all, Treinen has pitched to a 3.02 ERA with a 23.3 strikeout percentage and a 9.4 percent walk rate in 425 2/3 major league innings. At his best, Treinen – also a former National – gave the A’s 80 1/3 frames of 0.78 ERA ball in 2018. While Treinen does have 72 saves on his resume, he has so far served as a setup man for the Dodgers, who continue to rely on Kenley Jansen as their game-ending answer.
Treinen should keep working as a bridge to Jansen in 2021, and the Dodgers will continue to feature a formidable bullpen even beyond those two. The Dodgers’ relief corps finished the 2020 campaign with a National League-best 2.74 ERA, and though Jake McGee turned in an excellent year and is now a free agent, they did add former All-Star Corey Knebel earlier this offseason.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
2021 Season Expected To Start On Time
In the time of COVID-19, no schedule is complete without caveats to consult and confirm with health officials. Cases of coronavirus may surge further, breakouts and hot spots remain possible even as vaccines begin to make their way into circulation. And despite ubiquitous uncertainty, as well as owners advocating for delay, it appears the 2021 season will start on time, per The Athletic’s Evan Drellich. MLB and the MLBPA have each announced their intentions to stick to the CBA and provide regularly-scheduled kick-offs for spring training and opening day.
The presumption has been that any potential delay would come from the urging of the league office, but Drellich provides this statement from MLB, “We have announced the dates for the start of Spring Training and the Championship Season. As we get closer we will, in consultation with public health authorities, our medical experts, and the Players Association, determine whether any modifications should be considered in light of the current surge in COVID-19 cases and the challenges we faced in 2020 completing a 60-game season in a sport that plays every day.”
Owners would prefer to delay the start of the season in order to get more people vaccinated and generally provide a safer playing environment. But they also want to limit the number of games played without fans in attendance. With the CBA in place, however, MLB has little recourse but to start the season on time. Considering the success of the NFL and NBA to operate under the present circumstances, it would likely take a significant degradation of our present circumstances to seriously derail the season.
This is good news for the players, who have continually advocated for a full 162-game season. The logistics of said season remain as complicated as ever, and the schedule itself is likely to be a dynamic document. Still, it does seem likelier than ever that there will be a full season in 2021.
Phil Hughes Announces Retirement
Phil Hughes officially announced his retirement from baseball today via Twitter. Hughes last pitched in the Majors in 2018 as a member of the San Diego Padres. While his final 16 appearances came out of the Padres bullpen, the No. 23 overall pick of the 2004 draft spent most of his 12-year career split between the Yankees and Twins.
In his own words, Hughes begins his announcement by saying, “While it’s been fairly apparent to most over these last couple years, I’d like to officially announce my retirement from baseball. Through many ups and downs over 12 years, I look back and am incredibly proud of what I was able to accomplish.”
Hughes took some time finding his way, and he ultimately leaves the game as an underrated hurler. After debuting in pinstripes during the 2007 season, he became linked in many minds to Joba Chamberlain as a pair of promising arms that didn’t pan out quite as intended for the Yankees. That said, Hughes has plenty to be proud of after carving out a successful big league career.
He was prematurely crowned a future ace for the Yankees, but he nevertheless developed as a significant contributor setting up games for Mariano Rivera during New York’s 2009 title run. Hughes posted a 3.03 ERA/3.22 FIP over 86 innings that season, including nine appearances in the postseason.
Hughes would settle in as a starter during a four-year run from 2012 to 2015. His best year came in 2014, his first with the Twins in which he logged 209 2/3 frames with a 3.52 ERA/2.65 FIP and an ML-leading 11.63 K/BB rate and a 7th-place Cy Young finish. Injuries and circumstances may have altered Hughes’ ultimate trajectory, but his emergence in Minnesota became a feel-good story for as long as his health allowed.
In total, the 34-year-ol Hughes retires with 11.2 bWAR, but 17.7 fWAR, indicating his ultimate work level might have been underappreciated at the time. He spent seven seasons with the Yankees and five with the Twins, with one All-Star appearances in 2010. Congrats to Hughes on a long and successful career.
Trevor Bauer Had Meeting With Blue Jays
In the latest chapter of Trevor Bauer‘s unconventional trip through free agency, the right-hander revealed in a video that he had a call set to talk with the Blue Jays — specifically mentioning that he planned to talk with their pitching coach (Pete Walker) and high performance coach (presumably VP of high performance Angus Mugford).
While many fans have had some fun with the fact that the Blue Jays have been linked to virtually every free agent on the market this winter, Bauer’s meeting with them is still plenty notable. Few clubs are expected to be major spenders this winter, but Toronto is among the likeliest teams to sign a major free agent. The Blue Jays’ current $84MM projected payroll (via FanGraphs/Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez) is about half the franchise-record $163MM, set back in 2017.
Beyond that flexibility, the Toronto front office — headed up by president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins — is quite familiar with Bauer. Both Atkins and Shapiro were in the Indians organization when Cleveland originally acquired Bauer from the Diamondbacks; Shapiro was the team’s president at that point and Atkins the director of player development.
Among top-tier free agents, the Blue Jays have been most prominently linked to outfielder George Springer in recent weeks. The Jays reported to be one of two finalists to sign Springer. The Mets, the other apparent Springer finalist, have been tied to Bauer in their own right, although Springer is said to be New York’s priority at this time.
Toronto’s current rotation features Hyun Jin Ryu, Robbie Ray, Tanner Roark, Ross Stripling and highly touted 24-year-old Nate Pearson. Penciling Bauer into that mix alongside Ryu would give them a formidable one-two punch atop the rotation with plenty of upside behind them. Ryu is coming off consecutive Top 3 finishes in Cy Young voting, while Bauer of course won the National League Cy Young Award in 2020.
Padres Sign Ha-Seong Kim
DEC. 31, 6:06pm: The Padres have announced Kim’s signing. His deal includes a mutual option for 2025. The option could increase the value to $39MM, Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News reports. Yoo adds that the Heroes will receive $5.25MM as the posting fee.
5:21pm:Kim’s actually guaranteed $28MM, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. He could earn a maximum of $32MM based on incentives for plate appearances.
DEC. 28: The Padres have reached an agreement to sign free-agent infielder Ha-Seong Kim, reports Dennis Lin of The Athletic (Twitter link). Kim, a client of ISE Baseball, will receive a four-year, $25MM contract according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Kim, 25, became available to MLB clubs earlier this month when his KBO team, the Kiwoom Heroes, posted him for bidding.
Kim debuted as a teenager in the KBO, allowing him to push for his team to post him at a much earlier age than most stars in South Korea and Japan. Because of his youth and excellent track record, Kim was among the more desirable free agents on the market this winter, landing seventh on MLBTR’s Top 50 list back in November.
Throughout his career to date, Kim has been an above-average player in Korea, but his game soared to new heights in 2019 even as the KBO altered the composition of its ball in order to cut back on the league’s hitter-friendly environment. Since 2019, Kim has batted .307/.393/.500 with 49 home runs, 62 doubles, three triples and a 56-for-62 showing in stolen base attempts. He’s been 42 percent better than a league-average hitter there over the past two seasons, by measure of wRC+. Back in May, Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser wrote that signing Kim would be akin to inking a Top 100 prospect. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen have expressed similar sentiments, calling Kim a potential regular at second base, shortstop or third base in MLB.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that San Diego’s plan is to play Kim at second base and move 2020 Rookie of the Year runner-up Jake Cronenworth to left field. Of course, at this point it’s not wise to make any assumptions about just how the Padres’ roster will take shape. General manager A.J. Preller agreed to acquire Blake Snell from the Rays just last night and is simultaneously “deep” into talks to acquire Yu Darvish and perhaps some catching help — either Willson Contreras or Victor Caratini — from the Cubs. Until we know the players headed back to Chicago in that potential swap, it’s hard to gauge exactly how things will look.
At this point, however, it should be expected that Kim will be utilized on a near-everyday basis — be it as the primary second baseman or as an oft-used super-utility player. Kim is an above-average defender at shortstop, per Longenhagen, who cites “expansive” lateral range and a plus-plus throwing arm as the primary factors working in his favor. Generally speaking, most players capable of playing a strong shortstop are well-equipped to provide good defense at either second or third base, so Kim has the potential to impact the Friars on both sides of the ball.
There figures to be an adjustment period at the plate, given the gap between KBO pitching and MLB pitching, but Kim struck out at just a 10.9 percent clip in 2020. Even with inevitable regression as he gets used to better velocity, those bat-to-ball skills should give him a chance to hold his own right out of the gate.
Whether it’s Darvish or someone else, other moves figure to follow now that agreements to bring Kim and Snell to San Diego are in place. Preller has shown in the past that his additions come in rapid succession, and his activity over the past 24 hours seems to suggest that we’re in the midst of another deluge of Padres moves.
Latest On George Springer’s Asking Price
9:20pm: Springer has offers in hand north of $100MM, according to a tweet from Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Those bids nevertheless remain well shy of the veteran’s asking price, per the report.
3:47pm: The Mets and Blue Jays have been known to be the strongest suitors for free agent slugger George Springer for weeks, but Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News takes that notion a bit further, reporting that the Mets and Jays are the two “final clubs” bidding on Springer in free agency.
That, however, doesn’t necessarily mean a decision from Springer is nigh. Springer isn’t expected to sign until January, Thosar writes. While that technically could mean as soon as Friday, SNY’s Andy Martino writes that many involved in the bidding expect that Springer’s free agency could drag “well” into next month. Per Martino, the Mets and Springer aren’t yet close to a deal, and Springer’s camp is still seeking more than $150MM in guaranteed money.
In all likelihood, a $150MM+ contract would make Springer the top paid position player of the winter — possibly the top paid free agent overall. Such a contract could take multiple shapes; clubs more concerned about maintaining year-over-year flexibility could opt for a six-year pact in the $25MM-per-year range, or a team less concerned about approaching the luxury threshold could up the annual rate to around $30MM per year on a five-year term. Given the Blue Jays’ affordable young core, they seem less likely to be concerned with the luxury barrier than the Mets, who have several expensive stars already scattered about the roster.
Notably, Martino suggests that the Mets “might be willing to approach” the $150MM mark to secure Springer, although it’s likely telling to some extent that the two sides aren’t yet close to a deal in spite of that willingness. The Mets and the Blue Jays are considered to be two of the market’s most aggressive buyers this winter, and their reported interests carry some overlap beyond Springer; both have been linked to DJ LeMahieu, and both were tied to J.T. Realmuto — although the Mets are obviously out of that market now after signing James McCann to a four-year, $40.6MM contract.
Reports surrounding the two clubs seem to paint the Mets as the aggressor in the Springer market. New York is said to be focused on the longtime Astros center fielder as its top target, while the Jays remain linked to a bevy of top-tier free agents, including Springer, LeMahieu, Realmuto and Trevor Bauer. Both the Mets and the Blue Jays have also been rumored as possible landing spots when Francisco Lindor is ultimately traded.
Springer has raked at career-high rates over the past two seasons, posting a combined .284/.376/.576 batting line with 53 home runs, 26 doubles and five triples in 173 games and 778 plate appearances. Both Toronto and New York have somewhat crowded outfield pictures as it is, but either could move some pieces around to accommodate an impact bat of Springer’s caliber. Since Opening Day 2019, Springer has been 53 percent better than a league-average bat, by measure of wRC+. Only six players in that time top his mark of 153: Mike Trout, Nelson Cruz, Alex Bregman, Christian Yelich, Juan Soto and Anthony Rendon.
Phillies Acquire Jose Alvarado In Three-Team Trade With Rays, Dodgers
The Rays, Phillies, and Dodgers are in combination on a three-team deal, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links). As part of the swap, left-hander Jose Alvarado will go from the Rays to the Phillies, and minor league first baseman Dillon Paulson and a player to be named later or cash considerations will go from the Dodgers to Tampa Bay. The Phils announced that left-hander Garrett Cleavinger has been sent to Los Angeles to complete the Dodgers’ end of the trade.
Alvarado is the most well-known name involved, and the southpaw will join a Philadelphia bullpen that posted dire numbers in 2020. At his best during four seasons in Tampa, Alvarado was a major weapon for the Rays, most notably during a 2018 season that saw him post a 2.39 ERA and 11.3 K/9 over 64 relief innings and 70 games.
Injuries limited Alvarado in both 2019 and 2020, however, as he managed only a 5.08 ERA, 1.58 K/BB rate and 39 innings. While Alvarado still missed a lot of bats to the tune of a 12.0 K/9, a lack of control (7.6 BB/9) counter-acted those punchouts. Shoulder inflammation limited Alvarado to only nine regular-season innings in 2020, but he was able to return for the ALCS and toss 1 2/3 scoreless innings to contribute to the Rays’ victory over the Astros.
Alvarado is still only 25 years old and is controllable for three seasons via the arbitration process, so the Phillies are hoping there’s plenty of upside left. Beyond a general need for any sort of bullpen help, Philadelphia was also particularly short on left-handers, so Alvarado immediately becomes the club’s top southpaw option. Alvarado has been just about equally good against left-handed (career .600 OPS) and right-handed (.622 OPS) batters during his four MLB seasons.
In moving Alvarado, the Rays open up a 40-man roster spot that was needed for the completion of the Blake Snell trade with the Padres, so that deal could be officially announced soon. There is also a financial element to the swap from Tampa Bay’s end, as Alvarado was projected to earn roughly $1.05MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility.
Cleavinger made his MLB debut in 2020, tossing two-thirds of an inning in a single appearances for Philadelphia. A third-round pick for the Orioles in the 2015 draft, Cleavinger was dealt to the Phillies as part of the Jeremy Hellickson trade in July 2017. Working exclusively as a reliever throughout his pro career, Cleavinger has a 4.08 ERA, 2.26 K/BB rate, and 12.0 K/9 over 220 1/3 innings in the Baltimore and Philadelphia farm system, though he has never pitched at the Triple-A level.
Paulson was a 13th-round pick for the Dodgers in the 2018 draft, and the USC product has hit .253/.373/.464 over 778 plate appearances during his brief pro career, reaching the high-A level in 2019.
Padres Acquire Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini
DEC. 29, 10:07pm: Both teams have announced the trade. The Cubs will pay $3MM of Darvish’s remaining money, per Jordan Bastian of MLB.com and Heyman. Darvish has $62MM left on his contract – not the previously reported $59MM – because of the incentives he reached for finishing second in 2020 NL Cy Young voting, Bastian notes.
DEC. 28: The Cubs and Padres have agreed to a deal that will send right-hander Yu Darvish and catcher Victor Caratini from Chicago to San Diego, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports. The Cubs will receive righty Zach Davies, shortstops Reginald Preciado and Yeison Santana, and outfielders Owen Caissie and Ismael Mena in return. The trade is done pending medical records, and the sides could finalize it Tuesday, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Chicago will pick up “a minor portion” of Darvish’s remaining money, Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds.
This deal does not come as a surprise, as the two sides had been in deep discussions about Darvish throughout the day. It’s the latest bold strike for the Padres, who are coming off their first playoff season since 2006 and clearly plan to vie for their first-ever World Series title next year. Even before landing Darvish, they made a huge addition to their rotation Sunday by agreeing to pick up left-hander Blake Snell from the Rays. They also agreed to sign Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim on Monday, making for an epic 24-hour period of dealmaking for GM A.J. Preller.
The Cubs, meanwhile, are losing perhaps their best starter in Darvish – a 2020 National League Cy Young finalist – as well as a quality catcher in Caratini. Although the Cubs are just a couple months removed from their fifth playoff berth in six years, ownership entered the offseason unlikely to spend after a pandemic-shortened campaign. Indeed, the Cubs previously saved money by saying goodbye to Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora at the non-tender deadline, while pricey third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant has been the subject of trade speculation. It’s unclear whether the Padres will take on all of Darvish’s remaining contract, but if they do, that’ll be $59MM on their books over the next three years. Caratini’s much more affordable, as he will earn a projected $1.2MM to $1.6MM in 2021. Caratini isn’t on track for free agency until after 2023.
In heading to San Diego, Darvish will reunite with Preller, who was part of the Rangers’ front office when they signed Darvish out of Japan before the 2012 season. Darvish, now 34, has since enjoyed a terrific career divided among the Rangers, Dodgers and Cubs, and last season was likely his best yet. He ended up with 76 innings of 2.01 ERA/2.23 FIP ball, posted 11.01 K/9 against 1.66 BB/9, and averaged a personal-high 95.5 mph on his fastball. He’ll now slot in near the top of a rotation that lost Mike Clevinger to Tommy John surgery but will still feature Snell, Dinelson Lamet and Chris Paddack as locks for rotation jobs (barring other aggressive moves). The Padres also boast multiple high-end pitching prospects, including MacKenzie Gore.
Caratini, 27, was Darvish’s personal catcher in Chicago, but he was a reserve behind No. 1 backstop Willson Contreras. Caratini debuted with the Cubs in 2017 and has since offered passable offense relative to his position, having batted .250/.327/.372 in 677 plate appearances. Caratini was also a well-regarded defender in Chicago, including when he ranked in Statcast’s 98th percentile in the pitch-framing department last season. He’ll join Austin Nola and Luis Campusano as catchers on the Padres’ 40-man roster.
For the Cubs, this deal represents their first blockbuster trade under new president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, their former GM who earned a promotion after Theo Epstein stepped down in November. Losing Darvish and Caratini may not go over well for their fan base, but the Cubs are banking on Davies helping replace Darvish in 2021 and the young talent they received emerging as cornerstones.
Davies was somewhat quietly a top-tier starter in 2020, his only year as a Padre, as he recorded 69 1/3 frames of 2.73 ERA/3.88 FIP ball with 8.18 K/9 and 2.47 BB/9. He should look good alongside Kyle Hendricks as the Cubs’ one-two in 2021, though the 27-year-old Davies isn’t controllable beyond then. He’ll earn a projected $6.3MM to $10.6MM via arbitration next season.
The rest of the Cubs’ return doesn’t consist of any elite farmhands, but Kyle Glaser of Baseball America notes that BA was planning to rank Preciado (No. 15), Mena (17), Santana (18) and Caissie (20) among the Padres’ 20 best prospects in its upcoming Prospect Handbook.
Just 17 years old, BA rated Preciado 23rd in the Padres’ farm system midway through last season, writing that the 6-foot-4 switch hitter’s “frame provides hope he can grow into 20-plus home run power as he matures physically.”
Mena, 18, signed an expensive $2.2MM bonus with the Padres out of the Dominican Republic during the 2019-20 international signing period. BA lauded Mena’s speed, range and potential 15- to 20-home run power earlier this year.
The 20-year-old Santana put up impressive production in rookie ball from 2018-19, when he combined for a .306/.418/.425 line in 365 plate appearances. The Canadian-born Caissie, 18, was a second-round pick (No. 45) of the Padres last summer. BA wrote before the draft that Caissie possesses “exciting upside,” though there are “some significant swing-and-miss concerns” in his game.
All things considered, this looks like a trade between two NL playoff teams going in different directions. The Padres appear to be all in on playing for a championship in 2021. It’s hard to say the same for the Cubs, who seem to be a club in retooling mode.
Twins Sign Hansel Robles
The Twins have signed right-hander Hansel Robles, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports (Twitter link). The deal has been officially announced by the team. Robles will earn $2MM on the one-year contract, as per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links). He could make up to $500K more in incentives, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News tweets.
Robles was non-tendered by the Angels on December 2, as the team chose to cut Robles loose rather than pay him a projected arbitration salary in the $4MM range. The decision wasn’t entirely surprising in the wake of a pretty disastrous 2020 season for the 30-year-old, as Robles posted a 10.26 ERA over 16 2/3 innings for the Halos, in large part due to a 2.2 HR/9.
Though Robles has been somewhat susceptible to the long ball throughout his career, he still posted some solid numbers for the Mets from 2015-18, and it seemed like Robles had turned a corner after the Angels claimed him off waivers in June 2018. Robles had a 2.97 ERA in 36 1/3 frames for Anaheim during the remainder of the 2018 campaign, and then seemed to fully break out during a 2019 season that saw him emerge as the Angels’ closer.
Robles had a 2.48 ERA, 4.69 K/BB rate, and 9.3 K/9 over 72 2/3 innings for Los Angeles in 2019, and he racked up 23 saves. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed back in April, Robles thrived after greatly increasingly the use of his changeup, and altering his approach when challenging right-handed batters with his fastball. According to Statcast, Robles’ change was still an effective pitch in 2020, but batters absolutely teed off on his four-seamer to the tune of a .447 xwOBA.
Minnesota certainly hopes its coaching staff can get Robles back on track next season, as the Twins bullpen has some holes to fill. The Twins have already lost a couple of notable names in Trevor May and Matt Wisler, and Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard are still free agents. It has been a pretty quiet offseason overall for the reigning AL Central champions, perhaps due to the ongoing uncertainty around whether or not Nelson Cruz could re-sign with the Twins, a situation that may not be resolved until it is known if the DH will be used in the National League next season.
Padres Acquire Blake Snell From Rays
TODAY: The Padres have officially announced the trade.
DECEMBER 28: The Padres have an agreement in place to acquire Blake Snell from the Rays, report Dennis Lin, Josh Tolentino and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). Luis Patiño, Francisco Mejía and prospects Blake Hunt and Cole Wilcox are headed back to Tampa Bay. The deal is pending review of medicals. R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports had first reported the two sides were in discussions about a potential Snell trade.
It’s a shocking, out-of-the-blue acquisition for San Diego. The Rays were known to be open to offers on Snell, but there had been no indication prior to tonight any deal was particularly close. Snell, 28, is one of the sport’s best pitchers. The 2018 American League Cy Young winner, he has posted a 2.85 ERA across 337.2 innings over the past three seasons. Along the way, he’s struck out 32.1% of opposing hitters, holding them to a .206/.279/.350 slash line. This past season, Snell worked to a 3.24 ERA/4.35 FIP with his typical strikeout and walk numbers.
Snell becomes the second big-ticket starting pitcher acquired by the Padres within the past six months. San Diego picked up Mike Clevinger from the Indians prior to the August 31 trade deadline. Clevinger, though, required Tommy John surgery after the season, leaving the Padres looking to add to their rotation. They’ve done so with a bang, picking up perhaps the top starter available on the trade market. Snell will join Dinelson Lamet, who’s coming off a Cy Young caliber 2020, at the top of a rotation that also features Zach Davies and Chris Paddack and should soon welcome top prospect MacKenzie Gore, to say nothing of fellow prized prospect Adrián Morejón.
The Padres are clearly aiming to push the reigning World Series champion Dodgers in the NL West in both 2021 and beyond. In addition to that high-end rotation, San Diego boasts an enviable position player core including Fernando Tatís Jr., Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, Trent Grisham and a resurgent Eric Hosmer. It’s a win-now strike, but it’s not solely a move for next year. Snell comes with three seasons of remaining control under the terms of the extension he signed with Tampa Bay in March 2019. He’ll make a bargain $10.5MM salary next season, with respective salaries of $12.5MM and $16MM the following two years (his 2023 figure has potential escalators based on future Cy Young finishes).
Snell’s combination of high-end talent and cheap, long-term control meant the Padres had no choice but to offer an elite package to pry him from Tampa. All four players headed back to the Rays are highly-regarded youngsters, headlined by the 21-year-old Patiño. A 2016 international signee out of Colombia, the extremely athletic right-hander quickly emerged as one of the game’s best prospects. Each of Baseball America, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen placed him among the top twenty farmhands in the sport entering 2020. He draws praise for a mid-high 90’s fastball and plus slider and shows the makings of a plus changeup and above-average control, per Baseball America.
Patiño made his MLB debut, mostly working out of the bullpen, in 2020. His first 17.1 MLB innings didn’t go well, as he struggled to throw strikes and only managed a 5.19 ERA. But Patiño had only thrown 7.2 innings above A-ball entering the season and surely would’ve been given more minor-league time in 2020 had there been a season. He was nothing short of dominant in the low minors from 2018-19 and is a high-upside arm who could contribute for Tampa Bay in the near future. Patiño has yet to accrue a full year of service and comes with six seasons of team control. If he were to stick in the majors for good, he’d be controllable through 2026.
Hunt, too, has emerged as a top 100 caliber prospect, tweets Longenhagen. The 22-year-old catcher has “been hitting to all fields with power” and shown high-end arm strength in recent workouts, he adds. Hunt placed just 20th among Padre farmhands in Baseball America’s midseason system rankings but seems to have turned a corner in recent months. In 2019, he slashed .255/.331/.381 over 376 plate appearances in Low-A.
While Hunt may have the brighter long-term future behind the plate, Mejía isn’t far removed from being seen as an elite catching talent himself. The 25-year-old ranked among Baseball America’s top 35 overall prospects every year between 2017 and 2019 and headlined the Padres-Indians 2018 Brad Hand blockbuster. He comes with question marks about his aptitude behind the dish and has compiled just a .225/.282/.386 slash line in 362 career plate appearances over the past four seasons.
As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined, though, it’s easy to understand the appeal he holds to Tampa Bay. Mejía’s a switch-hitter who demonstrated elite bat-to-ball skills in the minors and has a top-of-the-scale arm. Given his lack of MLB track record, there’s more risk in his profile than there may have been at the peak of his prospect status, but Mejía carries some long-term intrigue and can immediately step into the Rays’ catching mix with Mike Zunino. Mejía has two-plus years of service and can be controlled through the 2024 season. He’ll be eligible for arbitration for the first time next winter.
Rounding out the return is Wilcox, a 2020 draftee out of the University of Georgia. Selected in the third round, Wilcox was generally seen as a first-round talent who fell because of a high bonus demand as a draft-eligible sophomore. The Padres signed the 21-year-old for an overslot $3.3MM signing bonus. The right-hander has a high-90’s fastball with a pair of promising secondaries in his slider and changeup, Baseball America noted in their pre-draft scouting report. Wilcox was ranked twelfth among San Diego farmhands by BA.
From a broader perspective, the trade is symbolic of the respective team-building approaches of the two organizations. Padres GM A.J. Preller has shown a willingness to make bold acquisitions both through trade and free agency, leveraging the treasure trove of prospects the club accrued throughout their rebuild to support an emergent core of homegrown talent. The Padres still boast plenty of talent in the system they could leverage for future additions to the MLB roster, with the bullpen standing out as a potential target area.
Altogether, the addition of Snell cements the Friars alongside the Dodgers and Braves as the top three teams in the National League. The Snell acquisition brings the San Diego payroll to a projected $141MM after factoring in arbitration raises, per Roster Resource. That leaves a little bit of wiggle room under last year’s season-opening payroll of $157MM (before prorating) if ownership is willing to repeat that level of spending.
The Rays, meanwhile, continue to operate without regard to name recognition, showing a willingness to move anyone if they can recoup what they deem sufficient value. Tampa Bay continuously churns the major league roster while prioritizing long-term control and cost certainty. That’s helped them compile a farm system that was generally regarded as the league’s strongest even before today’s haul of prospects.
Between Snell and Charlie Morton, however, the reigning American League champs have moved on from two of their top three starters this winter. Tampa Bay now figures to add pitching this offseason as they look to compete with the Yankees and hold off the Blue Jays at the top of the AL East. With Snell’s contract off the books, the Rays’ payroll is down to a projected $57MM, per Roster Resource, $17MM shy of last season’s opening payroll of $74MM (before prorating).
This post was originally published on December 27th.