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Mets Sign Jay Bruce

By Steve Adams | January 16, 2018 at 7:40pm CDT

Five months after being traded from the Mets to the Indians, Jay Bruce is back in New York. The Mets announced on Tuesday that Bruce has re-signed with the team on a new three-year deal. Bruce, a client of Sosnick, Cobbe & Karon, will reportedly be guaranteed $39MM on the contract and will also pick up a partial no-trade clause that allows him to annually specify five teams to which he cannot be traded. A press conference will be held on Wednesday morning (at which point, presumably, a corresponding 40-man roster move will also be announced).

The three-year deal for Bruce reportedly comes with a $3MM signing bonus that’ll be paid out in $1.5MM installments in 2019 and 2020. He’ll earn $10MM this coming season as well as $13MM in both 2019 and 2020.

“I’m excited to return to the Mets to help finish what we set out to do at the beginning of last season and return to the postseason for the best fans in baseball,” said Bruce in a statement issued via the team’s press release. “We have a terrific group of guys in place and I’m excited to get back to work.”

Bruce has long been a reported target of the Mets, and Mike Puma of the New York Post reported hours before the signing that the two sides had been in contact in the days leading up to the agreement. New York has been seeking an outfielder that can also serve as an insurance policy at first base in the event that young Dominic Smith continues to struggle, and Bruce fits that description to some degree. While Bruce’s experience at first base is limited, he did appear in 12 games at first base with the Mets this past season and worked out there quite a bit before seeing in-game action at the position.

It’s been something of a tumultuous ride for Bruce with the Mets, as he struggled mightily after initially being acquired prior to the non-waiver trade deadline in 2016. Bruce finished that ’16 campaign well but sat through an offseason rife with trade rumors swirling around his name. The Mets reportedly shopped Bruce extensively but weren’t able to drum up much interest. Instead, Bruce returned to Queens and significantly bolstered his stock with a .266/.334/.538 slash in the season’s first half. That production led to a trade to Cleveland, where Bruce continued to hit well down the stretch and in the postseason.

Overall, Bruce turned in a strong .254/.324/.508 slash with a career-best 36 home runs during the regular season. Cleveland’s stay in the postseason was rather abbreviated in nature, but Bruce’s .278/.333/.667 slash and two homers — one of which was a dramatic, game-tying solo shot off David Robertson in the bottom of the eighth inning in Cleveland — certainly helped the Indians push the American League Division Series to five games. Now, Bruce will return to an organization that has come to value his presence not only in the lineup but also in the clubhouse.

“Jay has proven to be a leader both on and off the field while continuing to produce at a high level throughout his major league career,” GM Sandy Alderson said in a statement announcing the deal. “We’re glad to have Jay back in the fold as we continue our pursuit to return to the postseason.”

[Related: Updated New York Mets depth chart and New York Mets payroll]

The Mets have informed Bruce that he’ll likely play some first base this time around, tweets Puma, though it stands to reason that the amount of time he sees at the position will be tied directly to how well the 22-year-old Smith is able to adjust to big league pitching. (Smith hit just .198/.262/.395 through 183 plate appearances as a rookie in 2017.) Of course, Bruce also figures to see plenty of time — if not the majority of his time — in the outfield corners. Currently, the Mets have Yoenis Cespedes, Juan Lagares, Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo in their outfield mix, though Lagares’ name has been mentioned frequently in trade rumors and Conforto is returning from significant shoulder surgery.

Between Conforto’s shoulder injury, Smith’s inexperience and the litany of maladies that prevented Cespedes and Lagares from taking the field with regularity in 2017, it seems likely that new manager Mickey Callaway (who knows Bruce well already from his two months in Cleveland) should have ample opportunity to get Bruce into the lineup.

Remarkably, despite the fact that we’re now into the middle third of January, Bruce’s $39MM guarantee is the second-largest guaranteed sum to which any position player has agreed this winter. (Bruce’s former Indians teammate, Carlos Santana, has the largest agreement at $60MM in Philadelphia.) Of the top 20 players on MLBTR’s top 50 free agent rankings back in November, just seven have found new homes, including Bruce. MLBTR’s projection of a three-year, $39MM pact for Bruce proved to be accurate, albeit with a different team.

ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick first reported the agreement (on Twitter). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweeted the terms of the deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the annual breakdown of the deal (Twitter links). The New York Post’s Ken Davidoff reported the partial no-trade clause (Twitter link).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Blue Jays To Sign Curtis Granderson

By Steve Adams | January 15, 2018 at 7:58pm CDT

The Blue Jays have reached an agreement with free agent outfielder Curtis Granderson on a one-year deal worth $5MM, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The contract, which is pending a physical, includes additional incentives. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith notes that said bonuses are tied to the veteran outfielder’s playing time. Granderson is represented by agent Matt Brown of Pro Prospects, Inc.

The veteran Granderson will turn 37 in March and is coming off a down season at the plate in 2017. Granderson tallied 527 plate appearances and hit .212/.323/.452 with 26 homers in 2017 — the final season of a four-year, $60MM contract signed with the Mets prior to the 2014 season. He floundered following an August trade to the Dodgers, hitting just .161/.288/.366 in L.A. However, he was hitting a more palatable .228/.334/.481 through 395 plate appearances with New York.

While Granderson obviously had some struggles in the batting average department, he posted a strong OBP which was fueled by a career-best 13.5 percent walk rate. He still displayed plenty of pop as well, as his .241 isolated power mark (slugging minus average) was his highest since a 43-homer campaign with the Yankees back in 2012. Granderson belted 24 doubles and three triples in addition to his 26 big flies. Of course, as is typically the case with Granderson, the vast majority of his damage was done against right-handed pitching; Granderson hit .214/.337/.470 with 21 homers while holding the platoon advantage but limped to a bleak .202/.274/.394 slash against left-handed opponents.

As such, it stands to reason that Granderson will be largely platooned in an outfield corner with the Blue Jays in 2018. Kevin Pillar figures to lock down center field on an everyday basis, but Granderson makes a natural platoon partner for Steve Pearce in left field. His left-handed bat will also provide some insurance in the event that young Teoscar Hernandez, a right-handed hitter, struggles early in the ’18 campaign. (The same is true of Anthony Alford, should he make the club out of camp or later down the line in 2018.)

From a defensive standpoint, Granderson’s days as top-notch center fielder are in the past, though he showed in 2017 that he can still handle the position in a pinch, logging 473 innings there — mostly for an injury-ravaged Mets roster. The majority of Granderson’s corner work has come in right field, where he’s routinely posted above-average marks, as was once again the case this past season. Though Granderson logged only 273 innings in right field last year, he turned in an excellent +6 Defensive Runs Saved mark and an equally impressive mark of +5.1, per Ultimate Zone Rating.

Toronto has been tied to various outfielders as of late, though two potential targets — Jay Bruce and Andrew McCutchen — have come off the market in the past week. Both players are limited to the outfield corners, so it’s possible that Toronto viewed Granderson as a fallback and moved quickly once those younger options were off the board.

It remains to be seen if the addition of Granderson halts the Jays’ reported interest in Lorenzo Cain, though there’s certainly room to add him to the roster. An outfield that regularly deployed both Cain and Pillar would be a formidable defensive unit, particularly if Granderson is able to maintain his quality work in the outfield corners. And, Granderson’s left-handed bat could be used to occasionally spell both Pillar and Cain against tough righties while providing a fair bit of insurance against injuries.

Financially speaking, the Blue Jays should still have plenty of room to add Cain and/or a rotation upgrade. Toronto reportedly had about $20MM to spend on 2018 payroll before the agreement with Granderson, and GM Ross Atkins has said that bolstering the outfield and the pitching staff are both priorities with the team’s remaining offseason resources. Granderson is a nice start on that goal, though he’s also the type of player that could be pushed into the role of a high-quality bench bat/reserve player in the event that the team can land an upgrade that is closer to his prime.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Giants Acquire Andrew McCutchen

By Steve Adams | January 15, 2018 at 5:34pm CDT

5:34pm: Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the Pirates are covering $2.5MM of McCutchen’s $14.75MM salary.

5:25pm: It became all the more clear on Monday that Pirates fans are looking at the end of an era, as the team announced that face of the franchise Andrew McCutchen has been traded to the Giants (along with cash considerations) in exchange for young right-hander Kyle Crick, outfield prospect Bryan Reynolds and $500K worth of international bonus pool space.

Outfield help has been a priority for the Giants all offseason after last year’s collective unit combined to bat .253/.311/.374 in more than 2000 plate appearances. Inserting McCutchen into that mix should provide a significant boost on the offensive side of the equation, as the 31-year-old turned in a very strong rebound campaign at the plate in 2017, hitting .279/.363/.486 with 28 homers (his highest total since hitting 31 back in 2012).

Of course, questions about McCutchen’s glovework persisted in 2017 — and it should be noted that the Giants’ outfield defense was the worst in baseball last year. San Francisco outfielders combined to post an MLB-worst -45 mark in Defensive Runs Saved, and they ranked just 28th with a -11.4 Ultimate Zone Rating. The since-traded Denard Span played no small role in those shortcomings, but McCutchen’s marks of -14 and -4.5 in those respective stats don’t exactly stand out as an indicator that an extensive amount of help is on the defensive horizon.

If the Giants were to play McCutchen in an outfield corner, perhaps he could post more meaningful contributions in that regard. At present, he figures to line up in center field, though the Giants could yet play McCutchen in left field and acquire a cost-effective center field option with a stronger defensive reputation (someone in the mold of Jarrod Dyson, speaking from a speculative standpoint).

However, it’s important to note that there may not be room for the Giants to make much of an addition. San Francisco will add more than $9MM to its luxury tax ledger by picking up the final year of McCutchen’s deal, which should place them roughly $7MM from the threshold. San Francisco has reportedly been aiming to remain under the tax cap in order to reset its penalty level.

[Related: Updated San Francisco Giants depth chart & San Francisco Giants payroll]

For the Giants, McCutchen is the second notable veteran bat the team has landed via trade this offseason. San Francisco also picked up Evan Longoria in a trade that sent Christian Arroyo, Span (plus the remaining year of his contract) and a pair of minor league pitchers to the Rays. Depending on their willingness to either shed additional payroll or pivot and exceed the luxury tax for a fifth consecutive season, those two big-name acquisitions could prove to be the Giants’ primary offseason acquisitions.

The McCutchen agreement comes just days after the Pirates shipped right-hander Gerrit Cole to the reigning World Champion Astros, further signaling a transitional period in Pittsburgh, though the pair of trades does not necessarily indicate that a full-scale tear-down is on the horizon for the Bucs. Both Cole (controlled through 2019) and McCutchen (a free agent next winter) were short-term and relatively high-priced assets — especially for a Pirates team that operates on a notoriously thin budget.

McCutchen is slated to earn $14.75MM in the final season of his contract, whereas Cole had settled at $6.75MM in order to avoid arbitration. The Pirates, then, will be saving a combined $21.5MM with this pair of swaps — money that could, in theory, be reinvested into the 2018 roster. The Pirates have, after all, opened each of the past three season with payrolls in excess of $90MM but now project for a payroll of roughly $82MM in 2018. The Bucs could further reduce that 2018 commitment if the team ultimately finds a trade partner for infielder/outfielder Josh Harrison; the versatile veteran is slated to earn $10MM this season and, like Cole and McCutchen before him, has been an oft-mentioned trade candidate this offseason.

[Related: Updated Pittsburgh Pirates depth chart & Pittsburgh Pirates payroll]

The 25-year-old Crick was the 49th overall pick in the 2011 draft and ranked among baseball’s top 100 prospects from 2013-15, per various reports. While his rise through the minors was slowed by control issues, he had a strong year in 2017 after converting to the bullpen on a full-time basis.

In 29 1/3 innings of relief in Triple-A, he posted a 2.76 ERA with 12.0 K/9, 4.0 BB/9 and a 44.3 percent ground-ball rate. That strong run led to Crick’s big league debut with the Giants; in 32 1/3 innings in the Majors, he logged a 3.06 ERA with 7.8 K/9, 4.7 BB/9 and a 37.9 percent ground-ball rate. Crick’s 95.5 mph average fastball velocity and 11 percent swinging-strike rate both pointed to the potential for his big league strikeout rate to catch up to the more impressive level he flashed in Triple-A.

Crick is controllable through the 2023 season, so he’ll join a lengthy list of controllable assets the Bucs received in the Cole trade as a potential long-term piece that can step directly onto the roster.

“Kyle Crick is a physical, Major League-ready right-handed reliever who brings a high-velocity, live fastball complimented by a quality slider to potentially pitch in a late inning role for the Pirates,” said Pirates GM Neal Huntington. “Kyle’s power arsenal has resulted in a high strikeout rate complimented by inducing a lot of weak contact. After his first exposure to the Major League level last season, Kyle appears ready to take the next steps in what should be a productive career as a high leverage Major League relief pitcher.”

Reynolds, 23 later this month, was the Giants’ second-round pick in 2016 and just wrapped up a strong season in Class-A Advanced, where he hit .312/.364/.462 with 10 homers, 26 doubles and nine triples in 540 trips to the plate. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com had him fourth among Giants prospects, while Baseball America ranked him fifth among San Francisco farmhands just a few weeks ago (before the Arroyo trade, meaning he’d now rank fourth on their list as well).

“Bryan is an effective offensive player that also plays quality defense,” said Huntington. “We look forward to working with Bryan to maximize his tools and help him become a quality well-rounded Major League player who can impact a game in many ways beyond his quality bat.”

As for the Pirates’ immediate future in the outfield, it’s not yet entirely clear how they’ll fill the void. Starling Marte seems likely to slide over from the corner outfield to center field, which should be a defensive upgrade over the life of a full season. Top prospect Austin Meadows showed in 2017 that he’s likely not yet ready for the Majors — Meadows hit just .250/.311/.359 in Triple-A — so the Bucs could turn to a platoon of 26-year-old Adam Frazier and veteran utility man Sean Rodriguez in left field for the time being.

Alternatively, Pittsburgh could wait out the free agent market and see if any veterans become available on bargain deals. The corner outfield market has no shortage of experienced options (MLBTR Free Agent Tracker link), and some of those names will undoubtedly have to settle for one-year deals later this winter.

Robert Murray and Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports first reported that talks between the two sides were picking up (Twitter link). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the two sides had reached an agreement (Twitter link). Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area tweeted that Crick was in the deal. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweeted that Reynolds was likely to be a part of the deal, and The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly confirmed as much. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reported that the Pirates would pay some of McCutchen’s salary.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Twins Sign Addison Reed

By Connor Byrne | January 15, 2018 at 4:52pm CDT

The Twins have bolstered their relief corps with the signing of their third free-agent reliever of the offseason, announcing on Monday a two-year deal with righty Addison Reed. The Wasserman client will be guaranteed $16.75MM on the contract, according to the Twins (one of the few teams that disclose financial details in the majority of their transactions).

The fact that the Twins will reel in Reed on such a short-term commitment comes as a surprise. MLBTR had projected a four-year pact for the right-hander, and most pundits had him pegged for at least a three-year commitment prior to the onset of free agency. Reed had three-year offers on the table at times this offseason, but his desire was to join a team in the Midwest, per Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan (Twitter link). The 29-year-old now joins Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke as veteran additions to the Minnesota bullpen. Like Rodney, Reed brings ninth-inning experience, having saved a combined 125 games since debuting in 2011.

[RELATED: Updated Twins Depth Chart]

Pitching has been the main focus this offseason for the Twins, who are coming off their first playoff campaign since 2010. The club’s 85-victory year came in spite of underwhelming pitching, including a relief corps that ranked 22nd in the majors in ERA (4.40) and 29th in strikeout rate (7.66 K/9). Reed’s lifetime output indicates he’ll significantly help the Twins’ cause over the next couple years, as he has pitched to a 3.40 ERA and posted 9.5 strikeouts per nine across a 402 2/3-inning career with the White Sox, Diamondbacks, Mets and Red Sox.

While Reed is coming off a career-low season in terms of velocity, he nonetheless registered an impressive 2.84 ERA across 76 innings between New York and Boston. It was the second straight year with at least 76 frames for Reed, who ranks fifth among relievers in innings since 2016 (153 2/3). His success has come thanks in part to an aversion to doling out free passes, including in 2017, when he issued 1.78 walks per nine. At the same time, he logged a solid K/9 (9.0) and recorded his highest full-season swinging-strike percentage (13.7).

The Reed signing is the first time Minnesota has given a multiyear deal to an outside reliever, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press notes on Twitter. With Reed, Rodney and Duke in the fold, it’s possible Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine are done making notable improvements to the team’s bullpen this offseason. But they’re sure to add starting pitching help between now and the opening of the season, and it’s perhaps worth noting that their top free agent target, righty Yu Darvish, shares an agency with Reed.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the agreement (Twitter link). Jon Heyman of FanRag tweeted the exact terms.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Justin Morneau To Retire, Join Twins As Special Assistant

By Jeff Todd | January 15, 2018 at 1:59pm CDT

JANUARY 15: Morneau will indeed retire, MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger tweets. He’s expected to hold a press conference to announce the move on Wednesday.

JANUARY 9: Long-time Twins star Justin Morneau is slated to join the team as a special assistant, according to Bob Elliott of the Canadian Baseball Network (via Twitter). It would appear that the decision spells the end of his playing days, though there’s no clear word yet of that.

Morneau, 36, told Ben Nicholson-Smith and Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca in late October that he was not ready to retire officially, but also seemingly acknowledged his playing career was likely over. At the time, Morneau said he had hoped to play in 2017 but had not been willing to go down to Triple-A and wait for a phone call. It has never seemed likely that the opportunities would improve over time, particularly now that Morneau did not play in the just-completed season.

Entering the 2017 campaign, Morneau was already expressing some uncertainty about his future, though he also sounded like someone who wanted to carry on. Now, though, indications clearly are he’s moving on to other challenges in the baseball world.

If this is indeed the end of the line, Morneau will end his career as one of the best and most productive players ever to hail from his native Canada. In the aggregate, the first baseman turned in 22.6 fWAR and 27.3 rWAR over his 14 MLB campaigns. He also earned just shy of $100MM, due in large part to a six-year, $80MM extension he struck with Minnesota in 2008.

Of course, it’s hard not to ask what might have been. Morneau won the American League MVP Award in 2006 and went to the All-Star Game in each of the ensuing four seasons. As of mid-2010, he carried a lifetime .286/.358/.511 batting line. And he was then in the midst of his best season, boasting a whopping .345/.437/.618 output with 18 home runs through 81 games.

Things changed suddenly when Morneau took a knee to the head in a collision at second base. The concussion he suffered knocked him out for the rest of the season and limited him to just 69 games in the ensuing campaign. While he was eventually able to return to above-average work at the plate, and even turned in a very strong 2014 season with the Rockies (.319/.364/.496), Morneau never fully regained his standing on the field.

Injuries limited Morneau in 2015 and delayed his start to the 2016 campaign, when he signed a one-year deal with the White Sox after offseason elbow surgery. He ultimately managed only a .261/.303/.429 output for Chicago — respectable work for his age-35 season after so many travails, but not enough to drive interest from other organizations after the end of the season. Morneau also appeared in the World Baseball Classic in 2017, representing his fourth appearance for home country and perhaps his last competitive action on the field.

In addition to the organizations already noted, Morneau spent a brief stretch with the Pirates in 2013, following his mid-season trade from the Twins. Clearly, Morneau will forever be associated with the Minnesota franchise, though, after 11 good years there. He was part of a core group that featured mainstays such as Johan Santana, Torii Hunter, Michael Cuddyer, and Joe Mauer. While the Twins never experienced much postseason success in that era, they did take home six AL Central titles in a nine-year span (2002 through 2010).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Padres Extend Brad Hand

By Kyle Downing | January 15, 2018 at 12:32pm CDT

MONDAY: Heyman has the full breakdown on Twitter. Hand will receive a $1.75MM signing bonus along with salaries of $3.5MM, $6.5MM, and $7MM in the three guaranteed years of the contract.

SUNDAY: The Padres have officially announced the deal.

SATURDAY, 7:15pm: Hand passed his physical, making the deal official, per Heyman. The club option is worth $10MM and comes with a $1MM buyout, Heyman adds (Twitter link).

9:54am: The Padres have agreed to terms on an extension with left-handed reliever Brad Hand, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. It’s a three-year deal that also comes with a club option. Hand, who is represented by Matt Colleran, will be guaranteed $19.75MM, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. The deal is still pending a physical.

At the end of the day yesterday, we noted that Hand’s arbitration case was still unresolved, and obviously we now understand why arbitration filing figures had not been reported. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports notes in his own tweet that both sides had filed at $3.6MM, indicating that extension talks had almost certainly progressed to a point where both sides were quite confident that a deal would get done.

The pact, of course, means that the Padres will not need to worry about the arbitration process with their elite reliever again, as the deal is set to cover his final two arb years while giving the club at least one additional year of team control. The team option will allow the Padres up to four years of team control over the southpaw. As Rosenthal adds, that means he’ll be able to enter free agency prior to his age-32 season — though clearly this deal entailed a significant sacrifice of open-market earning upside in exchange for a life-changing guarantee.

Hand has long been considered a valuable candidate, and his new contract seemingly makes it less likely that he’ll be traded this offseason (though his trade value may have actually increased due to the added team control). A while back, MLBTR profiled his potential trade value, noting that he could warrant a return similar to that which the Yankees received from the Indians for Andrew Miller. Instead, the Padres have found a way to keep him in the fold a bit longer… perhaps even into their next window of contention.

The extension is another indication that a rebuilding Padres club could perhaps be gearing up for a return to contention. Earlier this winter, reports surfaced that the club had already made a seven-year contract offer to Eric Hosmer in the nine-figure range.

Contention window implications aside, keeping Hand in the fold for an extra season or two will help detract from the workload of a fairly young Padres rotation. Last season, their starters averaged 5 1/3 innings per start during the 2017 season, while Hand ranked 6th in the majors with 79 1/3 innings out of the bullpen. Many things could change over the course of the next two seasons, but retaining Hand amidst a bullpen full of question marks will have at least a small benefit to the pitching staff.

The Marlins selected Hand in the second round of the 2008 draft. He came up through their system as a starter, but never gained much traction. Through the end of the 2015 season, he owned a career 4.71 ERA across 288 2/3 innings split between Miami’s rotation and bullpen. His 5.9 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 were also indicative of a below-average pitcher.

After the Padres claimed him off waivers in early April of the following season, they employed him as a reliever full-time and watched him rise to elite status. Over the course of his career in San Diego, Hand has tossed 168 2/3 sterling innings to the tune of a 2.56 ERA with 11.49 K/9 against just 2.99 BB/9. His 6.14 WPA during that time ranks fourth among qualifying relievers in baseball. After the Padres traded Brandon Maurer to the Royals prior to the 2017 trade deadline, the team began to deploy Hand as its closer; he rewarded them by collecting 19 saves across the remaining 2+ months of the season (in addition to the two he’d earned already that year). If he can continue to perform at a similar level, the Padres stand to earn fantastic value from the added year(s) they’ll gain from Hand as a result of this extension.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Astros Acquire Gerrit Cole

By Connor Byrne | January 13, 2018 at 6:05pm CDT

The Astros have acquired right-hander Gerrit Cole from the Pirates for righties Joe Musgrove and Michael Feliz, third baseman Colin Moran and outfielder Jason Martin, according to announcements from both teams.

Houston and Pittsburgh nearly reached an agreement on a Cole trade earlier this week, but reports of a done deal proved premature. The two sides continued to negotiate, however, and have now come together on one of the most noteworthy trades of the offseason. Cole is the second potential front-end starter the Astros have acquired since last August, when they landed longtime Tigers ace Justin Verlander, who ultimately helped pitch them to their first-ever World Series title a couple months later.

With Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton, Lance McCullers and Collin McHugh among their starters on hand, the Astros didn’t exactly have a desperate need for Cole heading into next season. But adding Cole should nonetheless increase their chances to finish atop the major league mountain again in 2018, and with two years of team control remaining, he figures to help their cause through 2019. Neither Keuchel nor Morton is under contract past 2018, which helps explains why the Astros have been in on Cole and other high-end starters this offseason. The Astros’ addition of Cole should affect top free agents like Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, both of whom have been on their radar this winter, as it seems to remove a potential suitor for them.

Cole, who settled on a $6.75MM salary for his penultimate year of arbitration control on Friday, is coming off a somewhat disappointing season. Although the 27-year-old racked up 203 innings and continued to serve as one of the majors’ hardest-throwing starters, a bloated home run-to-fly ball rate (15.9 percent, well above his career figure of 10.0) helped lead to a personal-worst 4.26 ERA/4.08 FIP.

Given his down 2017, the Pirates weren’t in position to sell high on Cole. However, as a Scott Boras client nearing free agency, the low-payroll club knew its chances to extend him weren’t good. Consequently, the Bucs shopped Cole around the league – including to the Yankees, Twins and Cubs – before sending him to the Astros. Cole had been with the Pirates since they selected him first overall in the 2011 draft, and he looked like an ace with them at times after debuting in 2013. All told, Cole registered a 3.50 ERA/3.27 FIP with 8.44 K/9, 2.34 BB/9 and a 47.4 percent groundball rate across 782 1/3 innings in Pittsburgh.

Parting with Cole could begin a rebuild for the Pirates, who finished under .500 for the second straight year in 2017. However, acquiring three major league-ready players for him in Musgrove, Moran and Feliz may also help them compete next season. The headliner is arguably the 25-year-old Musgrove, a former top 100 prospect who has worked as both a starter and reliever since debuting in 2016. While Musgrove scuffled as a starter last season, he was utterly dominant in his first big league action out of the bullpen. Moving to a relief role enabled Musgrove to ramp up his velocity, and it helped lead to a 1.44 ERA with just under nine strikeouts per nine and a paltry 1.44 BB/9 across 31 1/3 innings. It’s unclear whether he’ll be a starter or a reliever going forward, but with five years of control, the Pirates will have time to find an ideal role for him.

Moran was a first-round pick of the Marlins in 2013 who topped out as Baseball America’s 61st-ranked prospect after that season, though he hasn’t seen much action in the majors to this point (37 plate appearances). And with the emergence of third baseman Alex Bregman, there simply wasn’t a path to playing time in Houston. The 25-year-old Moran held his own in 2017 at Triple-A – his second season at that level – with a .308/.373/.543 line in 338 PAs. Moran ranked as the Astros’ fifth-best prospect prior to the trade, according to MLB.com, which lauds “his pure left-handed swing and his ability to barrel balls easily while controlling the strike zone.” Defensively, Moran has the hands and arm to handle third, though he lacks range, per MLB.com.

Feliz, 24, amassed significant experience out of the Astros’ bullpen over the previous two seasons, during which he combined to make 98 appearances and throw 121 innings. While Feliz brought high-90s heat, posted a sky-high 13.14 K/9 and a passable 3.5 BB/9 along the way, he only managed a 4.94 ERA – owing in part to a low groundball percentage (37.1 percent) and a lofty home run-to-fly ball rate (16.5 percent). ERA indicators have been bullish on Feliz, who owns a career 3.67 FIP and 3.17 xFIP. He comes with four years of control, including his final pre-arbitration season in 2018.

Martin, an eighth-round pick in 2013, brings the least fanfare of anyone in this trade, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic noting on Twitter that he may end up as a reserve outfielder down the line. MLB.com agrees that he won’t turn into a regular option in the corner outfield, though it rated Martin 15th in Houston’s system and suggested he has a chance to develop into a starting center fielder. The 22-year-old spent most of last season in Double-A, where he slashed .273/.319/.483 in 320 PAs.

Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports reported the Astros would acquire Cole, and he added that the Pirates would receive Musgrove and Moran. Jon Heyman of FanRag reported the Pirates would get four total players. Rosenthal reported that Feliz and Martin were in the deal (Twitter links). Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cubs Avoid Arbitration With Kris Bryant

By Jeff Todd | January 12, 2018 at 3:09pm CDT

The Cubs have reached a record-setting deal with star third baseman Kris Bryant, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). He will earn $10.85MM, setting a new high-water mark for first-time arb-eligible players.

Previously, Ryan Howard held the record for the biggest arbitration payout to a player entering the process for the first time. His $10MM mark had held sway since 2010. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz broke down Bryant’s case recently, suggesting he felt it somewhat more likely that Bryant would not quite top Howard.

Of course, there could be other factors weighing on the situation, including the controversy over Bryant’s initial promotion timeline and the fact that the Cubs would no doubt like to work out an extension if possible. Paying a bit extra and giving Bryant a record-setting deal may end up working to Chicago’s benefit. And it was no doubt preferable for the club to steer clear of a hearing.

In the spring of 2015, Chicago decided not to take Bryant north with the MLB club when it broke camp, instead waiting a few weeks to bring him up for his first big league action. That delay left the Cubs free to control him through 2021, rather than 2020, but spurred a grievance action and also left Bryant eligible to qualify for arbitration in 2018 — meaning he’ll get four bites at the apple through the arb process.

The Cubs’ approach still clearly favors the organization in the long run. But Bryant nevertheless now stands to take down some massive earnings throughout the arbitration process. He’ll have three more seasons to tack raises on top of his hefty $10.85MM starting point.

Blue Jays, Josh Donaldson Agree To Record Arbitration Deal

By Steve Adams | January 12, 2018 at 10:23am CDT

The Blue Jays and third baseman Josh Donaldson have avoided an arbitration hearing by agreeing to a $23MM salary for the 2018 season, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (via Twitter). That massive payday represents an all-time record payout for an arbitration-eligible player on a one-year contract. Donaldson, a client of MVP Sports Group, is entering his final year of team control and will be a free agent following the season.

Donaldson, 32, recovered from a slow (by his lofty standards) start to the 2017 season and closed out the year on a blistering hot streak, during which he was one of baseball’s best hitters (if not the very best). From Aug. 1 through season’s end, Donaldson batted a ridiculous .302/.410/.698 batting line with 22 homers in 227 plate appearances. That Herculean stretch took his season batting line from .243/.364/.442 on the morning of Aug. 1 all the way to his final slash of .270/.385/.559.

The record payday handily tops the projected arbitration salary from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, whose arbitration projection algorithm had pegged Donaldson at $20.7MM. Recognizing the unique nature of Donaldson’s case, Matt took a lengthier look at the factors that could’ve factored into negotiations in an Arbitration Breakdown piece on Donaldson, explaining the reasoning behind the $20.7MM figure as well as some ways in which the projection could’ve been off target.

That ultimately proved to be the case, as Donaldson now has his name in the arbitration record books. Prince Fielder’s $15.5MM contract was the largest one-year offseason payout for an arbitration-eligible position player, while David Price’s $19.75MM salary in his last year before free agency was the largest one-year, offseason payout on record to date. (The “offseason” distinction is of note, as the Nationals bought out Bryce Harper’s final year of arbitration eligibility for a hefty $21.65MM back in May, though Donaldson’s contract obviously tops that mark as well.)

Over the past three seasons in Toronto, Donaldson has been one of baseball’s elite players, posting a .285/.387/.559 slash (150 OPS+) while playing excellent defense at third base. Though he’ll hit the open market in advance of his age-33 season next winter, the 2015 American League MVP will have a strong case for a nine-figure contract in free agency, assuming good health and a characteristically excellent season in 2018.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Luhnow Refutes Report That Astros Have Deal For Gerrit Cole

By Jeff Todd | January 10, 2018 at 2:44pm CDT

2:44pm: The Astros are still engaged with the Pirates on Cole but are also still looking at alternatives, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).

11:15am: Recent chatter of a possible trade that would send right-hander Gerrit Cole from the Pirates to the Astros intensified early today, with multiple reports indicating the sides were gaining momentum. And Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter) reported that a deal was in place between the organizations that would send Cole to Houston.

Ensuing reports, though, cast doubt and then fully refuted that agreement had been reached. Astros GM Jeff Luhnow said that there was “nothing imminent” in any of the team’s trade talks, per Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). And Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported (Twitter links) first that the deal had not yet fully been completed and ultimately that the apparent news of an accord was simply a “false rumor.”

All told, it seems there’s no reason at this time to believe a deal is particularly close to coming to fruition, beyond the fact that the sides have evidently engaged in serious discussion. Passan says a trade “is not happening” right now, while noting “talks could pick back up quickly.” And Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter) suggests a trade “isn’t necessarily close.” Indeed, he also hears of another suitor being involved beyond the Yankees (the organization that once seemed likely to land Cole before those talks fizzled). With the necessary proviso that the situation can always change, then, it appears we’re mostly back to the status quo ante on Cole’s trade status.

Cole, now 27, remains a top trade candidate. He was the first overall pick in the 2011 draft. He ascended quickly to become Pittsburgh’s top pitcher, though he has not exactly been at his peak of late. In 2017, he worked to a 4.26 ERA in 203 frames. While that represented a promising return to full health after some limitations in 2016, it also was hardly the output that had come to be expected.

In 2015, after all, Cole had fully emerged as a staff ace, turning in 208 frames of 2.60 ERA ball with 8.7 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9. While his velocity and key peripherals have largely held steady, Cole was tagged for 1.37 home runs per nine — over twice the rate he had maintained previously. As Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs explains, Cole’s heater surrendered quite a bit of added pop in 2017, but there’s reason to believe he can refine his offerings to regain his standing. Cole will cost a projected $7.5MM in 2018 with one more season of arbitration control thereafter.

For the ’Stros, we’ve seen clear indication of late that the organization wishes to boost an already-strong rotation unit that was already boosted late last year with the addition of Justin Verlander. With Dallas Keuchel, youngster Lance McCullers, and the increasingly interesting Charlie Morton already on hand, along with breakout righty Brad Peacock, it seems Houston’s interest in starters is a want moreso than a need.

On the Bucs’ side, it’s still hard to know how things will play out this winter. Even if the team deals away Cole and other veteran trade candidates (most notably Andrew McCutchen), it may still have some designs on competing in ’18. But parting with Cole would unquestionably mean delivering a major blow to the team’s expectations for the coming season.

More broadly, questions persist about just when and how the player market will get moving in earnest. A deal involving Cole might have given some clarity to the outlook for free agent starters, while perhaps leaving the Astros free to dedicate financial resources to other needs (most notably, the bullpen). But with this prospective swap not occurring — at least at this time — we’re left with the same overall market landscape.

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