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Reds Likely To Trade From Bullpen Depth

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The Reds are telling teams they plan to trade from their bullpen, report C. Trent Rosecrans and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. That is not yet a signal about their deadline direction, though. According to the report, Cincinnati anticipates having a bullpen surplus as they expect Emilio Pagán and Ian Gibaut to return from the injured list next month.

Cincinnati has somewhat quietly had one of the better bullpens in the league. Reds relievers rank seventh with a 3.52 earned run average and are eighth with a 24.5% strikeout rate. The relief group had been a recurring problem before turning into one of the team’s strengths this year. Swingman Nick Martinez has thrived when working from the ’pen. Fernando Cruz has developed into one of the league’s better strikeout arms, while underrated lefty Sam Moll has continued to excel after coming over from the A’s at last year’s deadline.

The Reds don’t have a ton of maneuverability with their relief group. Cruz and Moll have locked down two spots with their performance. Closer Alexis Díaz has been inconsistent, but Cincinnati isn’t going to send him down. Justin Wilson, Buck Farmer and Lucas Sims all have the requisite service time to decline a minor league assignment. Cincinnati can’t option Tony Santillan back to the minors after selecting his contract two weeks ago.

That leaves one bullpen spot with a five-man rotation. Martinez is currently working from the starting five but could slide back to the ’pen once Carson Spiers returns from the injured list. That’d essentially complete the bullpen without having any obvious candidates to bounce between Great American Ball Park and Triple-A Louisville.

If they needed a fresh arm at that point, the Reds could designate someone for assignment. While Farmer has a 2.80 ERA over 45 innings, his strikeout and walk profile is pedestrian. Santillan had spent virtually the entire season in Triple-A, but The Athletic writes that the Reds view him as a key piece and would not want to put him back on waivers. Cincinnati could get Gibaut, Pagán and lefty Brent Suter back from injury later in the season.

While they’ll likely deal with other injuries along the way, the Reds obviously won’t be able to make any trades after next Tuesday. It seems they’re preemptively trying to get something in return for at least one or two of their relievers rather than lose players via waivers in August. The most obvious candidates for such a move are their impending free agents: Sims, Farmer and Wilson.

None of that trio would bring back a significant return. Sims, who is playing on a $2.85MM arbitration salary, has the highest ceiling of that group. He misses bats and has worked in a high-leverage capacity for the last few seasons, but he issues too many walks to be an in-demand trade chip. Sims is handing out free passes at a 13% clip over 33 frames this year after walking more than 15% of batters faced last season.

Wilson missed virtually all of 2022-23 because of Tommy John surgery and a lat injury. He returned this year with his typical velocity and has fanned more than a quarter of opponents with a 5.2% walk rate. A .365 average on balls in play has led to an unimpressive 4.85 ERA, but the 36-year-old is a fine option for teams seeking another left-hander in middle relief. Wilson is making a $1.5MM base salary.

Martinez is making $14MM this year and has a $12MM player option for next season. He’s pitching well, turning in a 3.88 ERA with excellent control over 72 frames. The fairly lofty salary and ’25 player option could lead teams to look elsewhere, though. It’s also not clear if the Reds want to deal Martinez, whose versatility they could value if they still anticipate making a playoff push.

General manager Nick Krall told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer yesterday that the front office had not decided on their overall deadline outlook. They’re five games under .500 and in last place in the NL Central, yet they’re within 4.5 games of a Wild Card spot in a wide open National League. Cincinnati’s game against the Braves tonight was rained out. They’ll make it up with a doubleheader on Wednesday. They play a weekend set in Tampa Bay and one game against the Cubs before the deadline.

Mariners Designate Ty France For Assignment; Place Julio Rodríguez, J.P. Crawford On Injured List

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The Mariners’ roster got a major shakeup today, with the club announcing a huge slate of moves. First baseman Ty France was designated for assignment while shortstop J.P. Crawford and outfielder Julio Rodríguez each landed on the 10-day injured list. Crawford has a right hand fracture while Rodríguez has a right high ankle sprain. In corresponding moves, the club recalled infielders Tyler Locklear, Leo Rivas and outfielder Cade Marlowe.

The writing seemed to be on the wall for France a few days ago. Seattle placed the 2022 All-Star on outright waivers earlier this week in hopes that another club would claim the remainder of his $6.775MM salary. Earlier today, Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported on X that France had gone unclaimed on waivers.

The Mariners didn’t have to outright France to a minor league affiliate — they could have simply decided to keep him on the roster, as the Blue Jays did with Kevin Kiermaier earlier this month when he also cleared waivers — but it seems they are committed to moving on.

Now that he’s been designated for assignment, he’s off the 40-man roster and they will technically have some time to explore trade scenarios. With France clearing waivers, the M’s at least know that they can’t just get rid of his salary, though they could perhaps eat some of that as a means of facilitating a deal. France has enough service time to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency while retaining the remainder of his salary, so he’ll likely end up released if no trade is worked out in the coming days.

From 2020-22, the thought of placing France on waivers would’ve seemed silly. The former Padres prospect went from San Diego to Seattle as part of the Austin Nola trade at the 2020 deadline and posted a terrific .284/.354/.441 slash (127 wRC+) with 40 homers, 64 doubles and three triples. France had posted strong offense throughout his minor league tenure but drew concern from scouts about his lack of an obvious defensive home. He worked himself into a fine defender at first base though, posting average or better marks there up until an across-the-board decline this season.

France’s glove isn’t the only thing that’s taken a step back. He was barely a league-average hitter in 2023 and has seen his production dwindle further in 2024. Over his past 1005 big league plate appearances, he’s posted a punchless .241/.328/.361 slash. France is still getting on base at a decent clip, but his strikeout rate has spiked from 16.4% (2020-22) to 24.4% in 2024. This year’s 19.7% line-drive rate is a personal low, and France’s 46.3% grounder rate is the second-highest mark of his career. For a player whose average sprint speed ranks in the seventh percentile of MLB hitters (via Statcast), an uptick in grounders is particularly problematic.

Though his recent play hasn’t been up to his prior standards, France has plenty of track record. He’s been a solid right-handed bat who’s primarily played first base in the majors but has dabbled at the opposite infield corner and at second base as well. If he ends up released, a new team could sign France and would only owe him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster, as the Mariners will remain on the hook for the rest of this year’s salary.

France would also be controllable for a new club through the 2025 campaign. He opened the current season with 4.089 years of MLB service and has already added another 117 days. That’ll push him to five-plus years. A new team could go through the arbitration process with him this offseason, or they could push for a more palatable club option to be tacked on, as the Tigers did with Carson Kelly last August following his release with the D-backs.

Crawford was hit by a pitch on the hand in last night’s game and suffered a fracture. Rodríguez collided with the outfield wall on Sunday while attempting to make a catch and was visibly injured, with video relayed on X by Fox Sports MLB.

It’s unclear how long the Mariners expect to be without those two players, but they are notable blows for a club that has already been plummeting of late. Just over a month ago, the club had a ten-game lead in the American League West. But some poor play from Seattle combined with a hot streak from the Astros now have the M’s percentage points behind Houston and also 3.5 games back of a Wild Card spot.

The timing of the injuries is not only unfortunate for that reason but also because Rodríguez was starting to heat up after a rough first half. He was hitting just .247/.297/.327 for a wRC+ of 83 through the end of June but had slashed .375/.434/.688 since the calendar flipped to July. That resurgence will now have to be put on hold for as long as he’s out.

Crawford has been scuffling this year as well, though luck could be a big factor there. He is slashing .204/.299/.347 on the year but his .243 batting average is well below his .293 career rate and the .289 league average in 2024. That has dragged his offense from last year’s 134 wRC+ to 90 this year, though he’s still been able to contribute by stealing five bases and providing above average shortstop defense. Ideally, his luck would have evened out in time but he won’t have that opportunity for as long as he’s on the IL.

The M’s will now have to try to pull themselves out of this tailspin without contributions from France, Crawford or Rodríguez. Locklear is covering first base today and could get some regular run there going forward, with Jason Vosler perhaps factoring in as well. Utility player Dylan Moore is at shortstop in tonight’s lineup and may be the regular there, with Rivas backing him up. Víctor Robles is in center field and figures to be joined in the club’s outfield mix by Canzone, Luke Raley, Mitch Haniger and Jonatan Clase.

With the trade deadline now just a week away, the Mariners figure to be looking for more offense in general and it’s been reported that they will be aggressive in doing so. At this point, there’s nothing to suggest that either Crawford or Rodríguez is facing a significant absence but it nonetheless could heighten the club’s focus on adding a bat or two. The Mariners are hitting a collective .217/.298/.364 this year for a 93 wRC+, which places them 22nd in the league.

Gomes: Dodgers Seek “Impact” Rotation Arm

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Starting pitching is known to be a Dodgers priority heading into next week’s trade deadline, and general manager Brandon Gomes didn’t shy away from that in speaking with the Dodgers’ beat last night. Gomes and manager Dave Roberts publicly discussed the “difficult” decision to designate James Paxton for assignment but acknowledged that with the slate of arms they have returning from the injured list (to say nothing of a potential trade acquisition), “now would be the best time to see if there’s interest” in Paxton before the deadline (link via Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic). The Dodgers hope to trade Paxton, Ardaya reports, pointing out that a new team would only owe the lefty the prorated portion of his $4MM base salary; Paxton’s $3MM signing bonus, $2MM roster bonus and full slate of incentives have already been paid out.

On the team’s search for additional rotation help, Gomes made clear that the Dodgers aren’t prioritizing marginal upgrades or back-end innings eaters to help patch things over for the rest of the regular season. “Targeting starting pitching, but it’s going to be an impact-type arm,” Gomes said of his club’s approach to the trade deadline.

That’s a tall order, of course. The starting pitching market is generally thin. White Sox ace Garrett Crochet and Tigers righty Jack Flaherty are the two most impactful names expected to be widely available. High-profile targets like Detroit’s Tarik Skubal and, to a much lesser degree, the Cubs’ Justin Steele have at least been the subject of some speculation, but neither is expected to be traded by next Tuesday. As a rotation-hungry club with a deep stock of controllable young talent and high-end prospects, the Dodgers could put together a compelling offer to test the Tigers’ conviction on Skubal, but any such deal is a long shot and would face steep competition from the Orioles and other similarly positioned contenders.

[Related: Top 50 trade candidates for the 2024 MLB trade deadline]

ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez recently reported that Crochet sits atop the Dodgers’ deadline wish list. Given the lack of “impact” arms who can be controlled beyond the current season, that’s hardly a surprising development. Any team that acquires Crochet will have some trepidation about his workload — the lefty’s 107 1/3 innings this year exceed his combined career total since being drafted in 2020 — but there’s no denying his dominance. The former No. 11 overall pick sports a 3.02 ERA (2.35 FIP, 2.45 SIERA). His 35.2% strikeout rate is tops among the 164 pitchers who’ve tossed at least 50 innings this season. His 5.4% walk rate ranks 23rd among that same sub-set.

As evidenced by the Paxton DFA, the L.A. rotation is in a state of flux. The Dodgers are welcoming Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw back from the injured list this week. Top prospect River Ryan made his MLB debut yesterday and tossed 5 1/3 shutout frames. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is on the injured list until at least mid-August but is still expected to pitch again this season. There’s hope that recently optioned Bobby Miller can return to form and that former top starter Walker Buehler can come back from the injured list and still contribute late in the season. Other young, less-proven options for the Dodgers include Gavin Stone, Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski. Stone, in particular, has emerged as a key arm with 18 starts of 3.19 ERA ball.

If everyone’s healthy, the Dodgers arguably already have a formidable playoff staff — but that’s a sizable “if.” Crochet would add more of a question mark to the bunch than a definitive ace, given his workload questions, but it’s also possible the Dodgers could utilize him as a multi-inning reliever late in the season or even get him some closing work. That’s speculative, to be clear, but manager Dave Roberts stopped short last night of referring to team saves leader Evan Phillips as his “closer,” Jack Harris of the L.A. Times tweets. Phillips has hit a rough stretch recently, yielding nine runs in his past 7 1/3 innings.

A pitcher like Crochet could be an “impact” arm in either a starting or relief role. He likely holds extra appeal to the Dodgers, given not only his two extra seasons of club control but his bottom-of-the-barrel $800K salary. RosterResource projects that the Dodgers already have $326MM worth of luxury obligations, placing them in the top tier of penalization. As a team paying the tax for a third consecutive season, they’re subject to a 110% overage fee on any new players acquired. Crochet will have about $258K of his salary yet to be paid out come deadline day; he’d only cost the Dodgers (or another maximum-penalty CBT team) about $542K in additional salary.

Hoyer: Cubs Prioritizing “2025 And Beyond” At Deadline

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This morning, The Athletic reported that the Cubs did not anticipate buying at the deadline. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer essentially confirmed as much in a chat with reporters just before tonight’s matchup with the Brewers.

Hoyer said the front office will approach the deadline with an eye toward to the future. “Where we are right now, I would have to say that moves only for 2024 – unless things change over the next week – we probably won’t do a lot of moves that only help us for this year,” Chicago’s baseball ops leader said (link via Jesse Rogers of ESPN). “If moves help us for 2025 and beyond I think we’re exceptionally well positioned.”

While Hoyer left open the slight caveat that the situation could change this week, there’s not much ambiguity in how he expects to handle the deadline. He spoke frankly about the team’s “poor position” with regards to this season. “We simply dug a hole with underperformance for two months. That doesn’t affect how I view the organization or how I view things going forward but it certainly affects 2024,” Hoyer said.

It’s clear the Cubs aren’t going to pursue any impending free agents. Hoyer didn’t term Chicago’s approach as buying or selling. That leaves open the possibility of trying to acquire MLB talent that is under team control beyond this season. While that’s not unprecedented (the Reds’ acquisition of Trevor Bauer and the Mets’ deal for Marcus Stroman in 2019 are examples of teams acquiring controllable players at the deadline despite being out of contention), it’s not common. The Cubs would need to outbid teams that are motivated to land those players for both a potential playoff push this summer and future seasons.

Chicago’s farm system is regarded as one of the strongest in the league. That gives Hoyer and his staff the ammunition to make a deal for a controllable player of note, but the likelier outcome is that the Cubs will just move a few short-term veterans. Hoyer shot down any suggestion of a complete teardown, saying it’s “not going to be an option so (there’s) no point in going through the hypothetical.” That makes it unlikely they’d deal core pieces who are under contract or team control beyond this season (e.g. Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Ian Happ, Michael Busch).

Prioritizing 2025 would ordinarily put a team’s rentals on the table, but the Cubs don’t have much to offer in that regard. Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly (whose deal contains a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option) and recent minor league signee Jorge López are the only true rentals. Hendricks is playing on a $16.5MM salary and has an earned run average pushing 7.00. While he has pitched better lately after a dismal start to the season, there’d be minimal interest. The Cubs could try to pay down almost all of the contract to find a trade partner. Hendricks also has full no-trade rights after reaching 10 years of MLB service (at least the last five of which have been with his current team) earlier this season.

Smyly has a 2.92 ERA across 37 innings in a long relief capacity. That solid run prevention isn’t supported by mediocre strikeout and walk rates (21% and 10.2%, respectively). Between his $8.5MM salary and the aforementioned option buyout, there’s likely to be limited interest in the veteran left-hander.

Cody Bellinger has the ability to opt out of the final two years and $50MM on his contract. He has had a fine but unexceptional season, hitting .269/.331/.410 across 344 plate appearances. That’d be a difficult contract to move even if Bellinger were healthy, and he went on the injured list a couple weeks ago with a broken finger.

If the Cubs wanted to more or less run things back in 2025, they’d be in for a very quiet deadline. Yet even if they’re not likely to move long-term core pieces, Chicago could entertain offers on role players who are controllable beyond this season. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported over the weekend that the Yankees and Red Sox were looking at starter Jameson Taillon, who’ll make $18MM annually between 2025-26. Rogers reports that the Cubs have also gotten interest in third baseman/DH Christopher Morel and relievers Héctor Neris, Mark Leiter Jr. and Tyson Miller.

Morel, 25, is under team control through 2028. He’ll be a borderline candidate for the Super Two cutoff for early arbitration next offseason. The Cubs are certainly under no financial pressure to move him, but it’s possible they’re prepared to move on if another team views Morel as a regular. Morel is a good athlete with big power upside who has never found a defensive home. Chicago has unsuccessfully tried him in second base and throughout the outfield in previous seasons. They’ve given him 562 innings at third base this year, hoping his top-of-the-scale arm strength would work at the position. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have each given him very poor grades for his stint at the hot corner.

This also hasn’t been a great season for Morel at the plate. While he has 18 homers, he’s hitting .202 with a .304 on-base mark. It’s a step down from the .241/.311/.471 career slash line that Morel carried into the season. While that’s clearly not ideal, it belies some intriguing developments from a process perspective. Morel has upped his walk rate by a couple points while dramatically slicing his strikeouts. After fanning in over 30% of his plate appearances for his first two seasons, he’s striking out 23.8% of the time this year. An unsustainably low .221 average on balls in play has kept that from materializing into better results.

Even if the Cubs expect Morel’s offensive performance to normalize with an uptick in his average on balls in play, the lack of a defensive fit makes him a difficult player to value. The Cubs could hope to turn third base over to last year’s first-round pick Matt Shaw as soon as next season. They don’t have much in the way of short-term alternatives. If the Cubs traded Morel, they’d probably rely on Miles Mastrobuoni and Patrick Wisdom to cover the position for the rest of the season.

The Cubs should be open to offers on anyone in their bullpen. Neris has handled the ninth inning since Adbert Alzolay went down with a forearm strain. The offseason signee has been shaky, walking 16.1% of opponents and blowing four saves in 17 attempts. Neris had a 1.71 ERA for the Astros last season, but that’s up two runs this year thanks to his control woes. The 35-year-old righty is playing on a $9MM salary and has a matching option for next year. That’s currently a team option but would convert to a player option if Neris pitches in 24 more games.

Given his inconsistency, the Cubs aren’t likely to want Neris back at that price point. They’d presumably be happy to find a trade partner, but the potential for being saddled with a $9MM player option if Neris hits his vesting marker could make other teams wary. There’s less risk with regards to Leiter and Miller. The former is striking out 34.4% of opponents with a 50.6% grounder rate across 34 innings. He’s playing on a $1.5MM salary and is under arbitration control through 2026. Miller, whom the Cubs acquired from Seattle in May, has broken out with a 2.04 ERA while striking out nearly 26% of opponents across 35 1/3 frames.

Whether the Cubs get compelling enough offers to move anyone from that group remains to be seen. They’re not entirely buried in the Wild Card standings, sitting 3.5 games back of the last playoff spot (currently held by the Mets). With four intervening teams to jump, the front office has decided they’re at best a long shot to make the postseason. How much they’re willing to reshape the roster with the ’25 campaign in mind will be one of the bigger questions of the upcoming week.

Dodgers Designate James Paxton For Assignment

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3:40pm: The Dodgers made it official, announcing that they have selected Ryan and designated Paxton for assignment.

2:42pm: The Dodgers are designating veteran left-hander James Paxton for assignment, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The team has not yet formally announced the move.

Paxton, 35, signed with the Dodgers on a complicated one-year deal that pays him a $3MM signing bonus, a $4MM salary, a $2MM roster bonus for making the Opening Day squad and a series of $600K and $1MM bonuses that unlock periodically based on his number of games started. Paxton has made 18 starts this season, which was the last milestone he needed to max out his contract. He’ll receive the full $13MM possible on the deal but also seems likely to finish out the season with another club, one way or another.

It’ll be a move that catches some off guard. Paxton has a solid enough 4.43 ERA and despite a laundry list of injury troubles in recent years has been the Dodgers’ healthiest starter. He’s tied with Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone for the team lead with 18 starts but sits well below both righties in terms of total innings, as he’s averaged fewer than five frames per start.

Paxton’s earned run average also belies some far less-encouraging numbers. His 16.4% strikeout rate is nearly six percentage points shy of the 22.3% league average, while his 12.3% walk rate is way north of the 8.2% average. He’s benefited from the help of a .267 average on balls in play that stands as the lowest mark of his career despite surrendering a career-high 90.8 mph average exit velocity and a 43.3% hard-hit rate that represents the second-worst mark of his big league tenure. Paxton has been hit particularly hard of late; dating back to June 5, he carries a 6.03 ERA in 37 1/3 innings (eight starts). Stretch that endpoint to mid-May, and Paxton has been torched for a 5.82 ERA in his past 11 starts — all while averaging less than 4 2/3 frames per outing.

The Dodgers are set to welcome both Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw back to their rotation this week. Glasnow has been out since July 9 with lower back tightness and will end up only requiring a minimum 15-day stint on the injured list. Kershaw has yet to pitch this season while rehabbing from last November’s shoulder surgery. That veteran pair will join Gavin Stone, Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski as starting options for manager Dave Roberts, though the Dodgers are also rumored to be promoting top pitching prospect River Ryan for his debut this week. Both Ryan and Kershaw will require the Dodgers to open 40-man spots, and it seems Paxton’s DFA will create one of those two vacancies.

Beyond Kershaw and Glasnow, the Dodgers hope to have Walker Buehler and Yoshinobu Yamamoto back from the injured list at some point next month. Right-hander Bobby Miller was just optioned amid some ongoing struggles but gives the team another rotation option. And, of course, starting pitching is reportedly one of the Dodgers’ top priorities heading into next week’s trade deadline. It’d be a surprise if president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman didn’t augment his rotation in some capacity.

As for Paxton, he’ll now either be released or traded within the next week. The veteran lefty has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and retain his full salary, so the Dodgers likely won’t even try to outright him. It’s easy enough to see a team on the hunt for rotation help show some interest, but at the same time it’ll be tough for any club to surrender much in a trade given Paxton’s recent struggles, his relatively notable salary and the fact that once he’s released, he’d be available for nothing more than the prorated league minimum.

Cubs Don’t Expect To Be Deadline Buyers

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The Cubs’ deadline trajectory has been an oft-discussed topic over the course of the past few weeks, with the team sitting at or near the bottom of the NL Central but also within striking distance of the final NL Wild Card spot. They’ve ostensibly explored possibilities on both ends of the buy/sell spectrum, showing interest in Toronto catcher Danny Jansen while also reportedly talking with both the Yankees and Red Sox about the potential of a Jameson Taillon trade. The Cubs dropped their first two games coming out of the All-Star break to a D-backs team that’s now tied for the final Wild Card spot, though they dodged a sweep in an extra-inning win Sunday.

While the Cubs are 3.5 games out in the Wild Card hunt, the latest report from Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic indicates that the Cubs aren’t planning to be buyers at next week’s trade deadline. That’s not an indication there’ll be any kind of prominent fire sale for the Cubs either, however. Chicago hopes to contend next year and isn’t likely to move players who are under control unless they receive big league-ready talent in return.

As for the Cubs’ slate of rental players, there’s simply not much to peddle to other clubs. Drew Smyly is sitting on an impressive 2.92 ERA in 37 relief innings, but he’s also walked 10.2% of his opponents and is playing on a contract other teams will want to avoid. Smyly is owed the balance of an $8.5MM salary for the current season (about $3.2MM) in addition to a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for the 2025 season.

Righty Kyle Hendricks is a free agent at season’s end but isn’t going to draw any interest with a $16MM salary and a 6.69 ERA (unless the Cubs eat the entirety of his contract, perhaps). Hector Neris has a 3.74 ERA and 24.2% strikeout rate in 33 2/3 innings — but he’s also walked a career-worst 16.1% of opponents. Neris is playing on a $9MM salary, and his $9MM club option will convert to a player option if he appears in 24 more games this season (60 total). That’s going to turn off any potentially interested parties. Cody Bellinger can become a free agent at season’s end, but he’s on the injured list with a fractured finger and the two opt-out provisions on his three-year deal would’ve made trading him extraordinarily difficult anyhow.

The Athletic’s report at least raises the speculative possibility of listening to offers for starter Justin Steele, though with three-plus seasons of club control remaining, the price would presumably be as high or even higher than the asks for crosstown ace Garrett Crochet (two years of club control remaining) and AL Cy Young front-runner Tarik Skubal (the latter of whom is not expected to be traded). There’s no reason to think the Cubs would outwardly shop Steele, but listening to see if someone steps up with a Juan Soto-esque haul for last year’s fifth-place NL Cy Young finisher is sensible enough.

With regard to Taillon, there’d be some sense to moving him even if the team doesn’t envision a broad-reaching sell-off. In signing any free agent to a long-term deal, a team is most interested in the first couple years of said contract. The 2025-26 seasons will be Taillon’s age-33 and age-34 campaigns. He’ll earn $18MM in each season on his slightly backloaded $68MM deal. Moving him would free up some money to potentially spend on a younger pitcher this offseason — or perhaps on another area of need entirely.

The Cubs control Steele, Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski and Jordan Wicks through at least the 2027 season. Prospects Cade Horton and Brandon Birdsell are rising quickly through the system. There’s some depth from which to deal, and a Taillon trade could bring in talent, shed future payroll and reduce future luxury tax obligations. Taillon wouldn’t command nearly the same type of haul as Steele for a number of reasons (age, salary, general talent level), but there aren’t many arms available so the Cubs could conceivably take advantage of that shortage and see what the market bears.

It’s worth emphasizing, too, that most teams’ plans remain pretty fluid this time of year. While teams facing a gaps of eight, nine, ten or more games in their respective postseason pursuits are sure to focus on selling (just as clubs in the opposite position will primarily focus on adding), nearly half the teams in baseball exist in a relative purgatory between those two ends of the spectrum. There’s currently a three-team tie for the third NL Wild Card spot (Mets, D-backs, Padres), and another five teams are within four games of that final spot — the Cubs among them. In the American League, there are four teams within six games of the final Wild Card spot.

For instance, if the Cubs snapped off six or seven straight wins beginning today, they’d presumably be far more open to the idea of adding some pieces. That’s particularly true because their next three games come against the division-leading Brewers. But a win streak of that nature is always a long shot, and it’s plenty notable that for the time being, Chicago isn’t viewing itself as a team that will trade even lower-caliber minor league talent in exchange for some marginal rental upgrades. Time will tell whether the players on the field can push the front office to take a more aggressive stance, but right now it seems likely the Cubs are in for a relatively quiet deadline.

Braves To Sign Whit Merrifield

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The Braves are in agreement with infielder/outfielder Whit Merrifield on a big league deal, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. The Braves’ 40-man roster currently stands at 39 prior to the deal, meaning the club will only need to accommodate Merrifield’s addition to the active roster with a corresponding move.

Merrifield, released by the Phillies earlier this month, figures to help cover second base in place of Ozzie Albies, who suffered a fractured wrist yesterday and is expected to be out of action for approximately eight weeks. Reporting yesterday indicated that the Braves plan to promote top infield prospect Nacho Alvarez to take over for Albies as their regular second baseman, and it appears the addition of Merrifield won’t change that. As noted by the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, Merrifield is currently expected to take a bench role with the Braves, leaving the starting job at second base open for Alvarez.

The 35-year-old veteran is an excellent fit for Atlanta’s roster needs in a bench role, at least on paper. With clear holes at second base and in the outfield, Merrifield’s ability to play both left field and second base makes for a strong fit, allowing him to back up both Alvarez at second base and work into an outfield mix that currently features Adam Duvall, Eddie Rosario, Jarred Kelenic, and Ramon Laureano. That being said, Merrifield’s difficult stint with the Phillies gives some reason for concern about his ability to be an effective major league hitter at this stage of his career. In 174 trips to the plate this season with Philadelphia, Merrifield slashed a paltry .199/.277/.295 with a wRC+ of just 65.

Despite Merrifield’s lackluster performance with the Braves’ chief division rival, there are some reasons for optimism that his performance could improve going forward. While Merrifield is almost certainly not the above-average contributor he was earlier in his career with the Royals, for whom he posted a 111 wRC+ and 13.3 fWAR from 2017 to 2020, he nonetheless had a recent track record of being a serviceable bench bat in more recent years. Merrifield slashed a decent .268/.311/.385, good for a wRC+ of 90, with the Royals and Blue Jays between 2021 and 2023.

That sort of production still seems to be within the realm of possibility for the veteran, particularly looking at his underlying metrics. Merrifield’s 10.9% strikeout rate this year is actually the lowest of his big league career, and his 8.6% walk rate matches his career high from back in 2018. While Merrifield’s .096 ISO this year is the lowest of his career, the larger culprit for his downturn in performance appears to be his shockingly low .206 BABIP. Entering the 2024 campaign, Merrifield owned a healthy .321 BABIP for his career and had never posted a figure lower than .276 in any individual season. Even matching his previous career low set in 2022 would surely provide a noticeable lift in his production and make him a compelling bench piece when combined with his versatility and respectable 11-for-12 showing on the basepaths this year.

In addition to helping Alvarez cover for Albies at second base, the addition of Merrifield alongside Rosario earlier this month is somewhat reminiscent of Atlanta’s quantity-over-quality approach to retooling their outfield at the trade deadline in 2021, when they loaded up on rental outfield pieces in the form of Rosario, Duvall, Joc Pederson, and Jorge Soler in order to help boost the outfield’s production following the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr. to season-ending ACL surgery. With Acuna once again done for the year in 2024, the signing of Merrifield could serve as an indication that the Braves intend to follow a similar path forward this year rather than spend significant prospect capital to land a more significant piece like Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the Marlins or Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox.

Ozzie Albies To Miss Eight Weeks With Wrist Fracture; Braves To Select Nacho Alvarez

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4:58pm: The Braves announced this afternoon that X-Rays on Albies’s wrist revealed a fracture in his left wrist. He’s expected to miss approximately eight weeks. Atlanta is “expected” to select Alvarez’s contract tomorrow to replace Albies on the roster, according to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Bowman suggests that the youngster will play second base despite Alvarez’s lack of experience at the keystone, leaving Arcia as the club’s everyday shortstop.

4:33pm: Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies exited today’s game in the ninth inning due to a left wrist injury. As noted by David O’Brien of The Athletic, Albies’s wrist was bent backwards when he attempted to tag a runner out a second base amid a stolen base attempt. The Braves have not made an official move yet, but manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including O’Brien) after the game that Albies will be placed on the injured list and that while further evaluation necessary, the outlook on the injury is “not good.”

The loss of Albies is another devastating blow to a Braves club that has already seen both reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. and right-handed ace Spencer Strider undergo season-ending surgery. With Albies set to join that duo as well as center fielder Michael Harris II and star lefty Max Fried on the shelf, the Braves will limp towards the trade deadline protecting a four-game lead in the NL Wild Card race without five of their biggest stars. While Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez have stepped up this season as front-of-the-rotation arms and Jarred Kelenic has performed admirably since being thrust into an everyday role as the club’s center fielder in place of Harris, there are no obvious solutions for replacing Albies on the club’s active roster.

Even average offensive production would be an adequate replacement for Albies at the plate, as the 27-year-old has been dealing with a bit of a down season this year. In 89 games this season, the infielder has slashed a roughly league average .255/.308/.403 across 390 trips to the plate. Even so, the club’s dearth of quality infield depth means that the Braves are likely to be scrambling for solutions in Albies’s absence, particularly if it proves to be a lengthy one as Snitker implied.

Earlier this year, infielder Zack Short was tapped to handle third base in place of an injured Austin Riley and rose to the call effectively. While he has experience at second base as well, he’s slumped badly in bench role since Riley’s return to the lineup and sports a slash line of just .077/.250/.077 since the start of June. That could lead the Braves to look toward the minor leagues. The club turned to David Fletcher in a utility role earlier this year, but he is no longer on the 40-man roster and has begun attempting to convert to pitching at the Double-A level, suggesting he’s unlikely to be called up to replace Albies. One option currently on the 40-man would be infielder Luke Williams, although his career .220/.280/.287 slash line in the majors certainly leaves something to be desired.

Perhaps the most exciting moves the Braves could make, barring a trade to improve the club’s overall infield mix, would be the promotion of top infield prospect Nacho Alvarez. Alvarez is ranked as the club’s #5 prospect by MLB Pipeline and has lit up the scoreboards in the minor leagues this year. In 75 games split between the Double- and Triple-A levels this year, the 21-year-old has slashed an eye-opening .295/.398/.420 while going 21-for-24 on the basepaths. One potential hiccup in that plan would be Alvarez’s complete lack of experience at second base, though the club could always plug him in at shortstop and shift veteran Orlando Arcia, who played 50 games for the Braves at the keystone in 2022, over to the right side of the infield alongside first baseman Matt Olson.

It’s possible that a lengthy absence for Albies could prompt the Braves to explore the infield market, particularly if the club feels Alvarez isn’t ready for his big league debut. Pieces such as Amed Rosario of the Rays and Brandon Drury of the Angels are among the veteran rentals who could be made available this summer, although the Rays have gone 6-3 over their last nine games to put themselves back into contention while Drury has suffered through an abysmal season at the plate this year. With clear needs in the starting rotation and outfield as well, it’s possible at Atlanta brass opt instead to rely on their internal options at the keystone while Albies is injured, instead working to add an outfield who can replace Acuna while taking pressure off of Kelenic and Adam Duvall, both of whom have been forced into everyday roles by injuries after starting the season as platoon partners.

Dodgers To Reinstate Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow

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The Dodgers have been scrambling to fill their rotation lately but will get a couple of big reinforcements back in the coming days. Manager Dave Roberts tells reporters that right-hander Tyler Glasnow and left-hander Clayton Kershaw will each come off the injured list to start on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Kershaw is on the 60-day IL and will need a 40-man roster spot to be opened prior to taking the ball. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times was among those to relay the news on X.

It’s a pretty big moment for Kershaw, who is coming back from the most significant absence of his career. The southpaw went under the knife in November to repair the gleno-humeral ligaments and capsule of his left shoulder. Though surgeries for pitchers have become quite commonplace in today’s baseball landscape, this was actually the first one for the veteran.

Kershaw was a workhorse earlier in his career but has had some health issues in recent seasons. From 2010 to 2015, he logged at least 198 innings for six straight years but hasn’t hit that number since. Recent years have seen him miss time here and there, often due to back issues, but the shoulder was the big concern in 2023. He somehow managed to toss 131 2/3 innings with a 2.55 earned run average despite his fastball velocity declining throughout the season but then was torched in his lone playoff start, only recording one out against the Diamondbacks while being charged with six earned runs.

The shoulder issue eventually require the aforementioned surgery in November and then he re-signed with the Dodgers in February. The deal is a two-year pact with the second season being a player option. Kershaw has a base salary of just $5MM in both years of the deal but with the ability to earn far more if he’s healthy. He gets an extra $1MM for getting to six starts, $1.5MM each for his seventh, eighth and ninth starts and then $2MM after his tenth. The Dodgers can’t get around this by using an opener, as a relief outing wherein Kershaw records at least nine outs also counts. At this point in the calendar, it’s still possible for Kershaw to unlock all of those bonuses and there are similar escalators for his 2025 option.

He began a rehab assignment by pitching three innings at the Single-A level on June 19. He was then shut down due to some shoulder soreness but Roberts downplayed the significance and Kershaw restarted his rehab assignment again more recently. He tossed three innings for Triple-A Oklahoma City last Saturday and then four innings on Friday, getting up to 67 pitches in the most recent outing. He’s now set to resume a big league career that already includes 2,712 2/3 innings with a 2.48 ERA.

Glasnow’s absence was far more mild, as he landed on the IL prior to the break due to some low back tightness, but the dual returns are significant for the Dodgers as they have had plenty of rotation challenges. Dustin May and Emmet Sheehan are each done for the year, with Tony Gonsolin likely to be in that camp as well. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a rotator cuff strain that landed him on the 60-day IL, meaning he can’t return before mid-August. Bobby Miller struggled enough to get optioned down to the minors while Walker Buehler was ineffective before landing on the IL with a hip issue.

Amid all of those issues, the Dodgers have been using a rotation of veteran James Paxton, rookies Gavin Stone, Justin Wrobleski and Landon Knack, as well as occasional bullpen games. Getting Glasnow and Kershaw into that mix obviously helps, and the club will be promoting prospect River Ryan soon as well.

Though that group is about to be much stronger than it was heading into the All-Star break, the Dodgers are still expected to pursue rotation upgrades prior to the July 30 deadline. They have been connected to Garrett Crochet of the White Sox for weeks now and Bob Nightengale of USA Today mentions the fit again this morning, also adding that the club has interest in Tarik Skubal of the Tigers.

Though the Dodgers’ interest in Crochet has been known for a while, Nightengale adds that the Dodgers have discussed a blockbuster deal that would see them also acquire outfielder Luis Robert Jr. and maybe even reliever Michael Kopech as well. That’s not necessarily a big surprise, as teams usually discuss all kinds of various trade scenarios, with many of them not coming close to fruition.

But that does align with recent comments from president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, who suggested the Dodgers would be more focused on impact additions as opposed to marginal upgrades. The club has some holes but is understandably shooting for the stars at this point. They have made the playoffs in 11 straight years now and spent wildly in the offseason, adding Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani and others. Making the postseason for a 12th straight year won’t really count as an accomplishment for the club or its fans, so aiming high at the deadline and trying for a World Series seems to be the play.

Crochet would obviously fit the bill since he’s been one of the best pitchers in the league this year with a 3.02 ERA and 35.2% strikeout rate through 20 starts. There are some concerns about his workload since he’s already thrown more innings this year than in his entire professional career prior to this campaign, but he should be able to provide an impact even if moved to some kind of relief role down the stretch.

Robert also has some durability concerns as he’s only tallied 100 games in a season once, but that one occurrence was quite impressive. He got into 145 contests for the Sox last year and hit 38 home runs, stole 20 bases and provided quality defense in center field. Injuries have been a problem before and have cropped up again this year, as he missed two months due to a right hip flexor strain. But he’s been great in his limited time, with 11 homers and 11 steals in just 45 games. His 32.6% strikeout rate is a career high but his 10.2% walk rate is almost twice his career pace.

He could fit into a Dodger outfield that has seen Mookie Betts move to the infield and then head to the injured list. Teoscar Hernández is having a good year but it’s flimsy apart from that. Andy Pages and Miguel Vargas are doing well overall but most of their damage has come against lefties. Ideally, they would be platooned with Jason Heyward, but Heyward is also on the IL. James Outman is hitting just .153/.250/.258 on the year and was optioned to the minors for a while, only getting recalled when Heyward went on the shelf. Utility players Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernández and Cavan Biggio have also struggled.

In addition to their talents, both players would be incredibly attractive due to their financial situations. Crochet is in his first arbitration season but his injury absences have limited him to a salary of $800K this year. He has two arb seasons left after this one and will be in line for a decent raises, but from a very modest base. Robert is making $12.5MM this year, far more than Crochet but still a bargain for a player of his talents. He’ll then make $15MM next year with a pair of $20MM club options after that.

Each player has significant trade value in a vacuum but it would take a massive blockbuster haul for the Dodgers to get both. Their farm system is considered strong but whether a deal can come together or not will depend on what kind of price the Sox are asking for and what other teams are offering. But at 27-73 and with a farm system that isn’t especially well regarded, it makes sense the Sox are considering trading almost anyone and it seems they are doing just that.

Kopech can’t match either Crochet or Robert in terms of huge appeal, but he would have some value in his own right. After some inconsistent results as a starter, the Sox have been using him as their closer this year with some interesting but mixed results. His 5.05 ERA isn’t going to wow anyone and his 12.7% walk rate is concerning, but he has punched out 30.9% of batters faced. He’s only making $3MM this year and can be retained via arbitration for another season after this.

As for Skubal, it’s understandable why the Dodgers or any other club would be interested. He is a Cy Young candidate this year with a 2.41 ERA, 30.8% strikeout rate, 4.6% walk rate and 47.4% ground ball rate. He’s making a modest $2.65MM and has two seasons of club control beyond this one.

But that also makes him plenty appealing to the Tigers and it’s fair to wonder how available he is. The club once seemed buried in the standings but have been hot lately, winning 11 of their last 14 and climbing to within five games of a playoff spot. Getting Skubal away from Detroit was probably going to take a haul even when they were in seller position but it’s probably become more difficult in recent weeks.

Braves Place Max Fried On Injured List

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The Braves announced today that left-hander Max Fried has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to July 18, with left forearm neuritis. Lefty Dylan Dodd was recalled in a corresponding move.

At this point, it’s unclear how significant Fried’s injury is or when it occurred. His most recent outing for Atlanta saw him throw six innings against the Diamondbacks on July 11. He was selected to the National League All-Star team and then tossed a scoreless inning against the American League in that game. Until he was placed on the IL, there had been no public reporting that anything was amiss.

More information will likely be forthcoming but this figures to be a significant development either way. Atlanta came into this season with a front five in their rotation of Fried, Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, Chris Sale and Reynaldo López. Strider required UCL surgery in April and is done for the year.

For as long as Fried is out, the club will be down to a rotation nucleus of Morton, Sale and López, who are each having great years but with some lingering concerns. Sale has been frequently injured in recent seasons and his 110 innings thrown this year are the most for him since 2019. López started earlier in his career but was moved to the bullpen a few years ago. Atlanta has moved him back to the rotation with success but he has also thrown more innings this year than he has since 2019. Morton continues to find success but is now 40 years old and his strikeout rate is down for a third straight year.

Atlanta is currently 54-43 on the year, 7.5 games back of the Phillies in the East division but currently holding the top Wild Card spot. Given their rotation situation, they were probably going to be looking for upgrades before the July 30 deadline but it’s possible that search will now ramp up with this injury to Fried. Some potential trade candidates include Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Garrett Crochet and many more.

In the meantime, they will have to cobble things together behind Morton, Sale and López. They don’t have an off-day between now and the deadline and played a double-header against the Cardinals yesterday. Neither Hurston Waldrep nor Huascar Ynoa will be able to help out, as both of them are currently on the IL. Ynoa started a rehab assignment on July 16 but only tossed two innings and probably needs a few more outings to build up.

Spencer Schwellenbach is having a good start to his career and should stick around, though it’s also only been eight starts so far. Ian Anderson underwent Tommy John surgery last year but has been rehabbing lately, with five starts on the farm in recent weeks. Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, Allan Winans, Darius Vines and Dodd are also on the 40-man and could be in the mix to help out.

For Fried personally, he is headed for free agency at the end of this season and was trending towards a nice payday. He has over 800 innings on his track record with a 3.08 ERA, 23.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 54.1% ground ball rate, with health not being a huge factor for most of the time. From 2019 to 2022, he made at least 28 starts in each full season and also took the ball 11 times in the shortened 2020 campaign. He also added just under 60 playoff innings in that four-year stretch.

He did miss about three months last year due to a left forearm strain, in addition to missing time due to a hamstring strain and a blister. He only made 14 starts last year but had been putting together a nice season in 2024 prior to this injury. He has already thrown 108 innings over 18 starts with a 3.08 ERA. His 21.5% strikeout rate is down a bit but he’s made opponents pound the ball into the ground at a 59% clip.

Fried placed fifth on MLBTR’s recent Free Agent Power Rankings, the #2 pitcher behind Corbin Burnes. He could still maintain that kind of earning power if he returns after a relatively brief absence and continues putting up strong numbers, but a more significant departure would obviously have an impact there as well.

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