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Latest On Frankie Montas

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TODAY: The Yankees, Cardinals, and Blue Jays seem to be the top suitors for Montas, as Jon Morosi of MLB Network writes that the right-hander’s “market is focused on” these three teams.

JULY 30: With Luis Castillo now on his way to Seattle following last night’s trade to the Mariners, Frankie Montas stands out as perhaps the best and likeliest arm left to be traded before Tuesday’s 5pm CT deadline. The majority of teams that held interest in Castillo are involved, to varying extents, in the Montas market, so it’s possible that last night’s deal begins to accelerate the pace of the pitching market overall.

The Yankees, for instance, were known to be Castillo suitors but have now made Montas their top target according to both Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter links). The Cardinals, who never seemed likely to be able to land Castillo from a fellow NL Central club, are continuing their pursuit of Montas, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Their pursuit, however, is complicated a bit by simultaneous interest in Nationals superstar Juan Soto; Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes in his latest column that some of the Cardinals prospects the A’s are targeting in return for Montas are also coveted by the Nationals.

Several other clubs were linked to both Montas and Castillo in the past week, including the Twins, Padres and Blue Jays. There are also surely other clubs on the periphery of the market whose presence isn’t publicly known. Both Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News and Rosenthal have indicated, for instance, that the Rangers had engaged with the Reds in talks regarding Castillo. Whether the A’s would seriously entertain sending Montas to a division rival isn’t clear, but it’s telling that Texas is in the market for arms that can be controlled into 2023.

The Athletics’ asking price on Montas was reportedly quite high even before last night’s trade of Castillo potentially upped Oakland’s leverage in talks. In profiling the Cardinals’ current rotation needs, Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote (prior to the Castillo deal) that Oakland is believed to be seeking a pair of top prospects and “potentially a currently rostered player with substantial team control remaining.” It’s a steep ask, to be sure, though not an unrealistic one given Montas’ trade value.

Brewers, A’s Have Discussed Ramon Laureano

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The Brewers are known to be in the market for outfield help — specifically in center field — and they’ve had recent talks with the Athletics about a potential trade involving Oakland outfielder Ramon Laureano, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes.

The 28-year-old Laureano is just one of several Athletics players who could change hands in the coming days. He missed the first month-plus of the season while finishing out an 80-game PED ban and has turned in a .224/.305/.396 batting line with 10 homers, 14 doubles and nine stolen bases in 285 plate appearances since returning.

Those numbers certainly don’t stand out as overly impressive, but when factoring in Laureano’s cavernous home park, wRC+ pegs his overall offensive output at about five percent above that of a league-average hitter. Laureano has been average or better each season of his career, by measure of wRC+, and carries a lifetime .256/.330/.452 batting line in 1542 trips to the plate.

Cristian Pache’s presence on the A’s roster — at least, prior to his demotion to Triple-A — pushed Laureano from center field to right field upon his return from the restricted list. He’s drawn quality marks for his glovework in right (+4 Defensive Runs Saved, 2.7 Ultimate Zone Rating) but curiously posted dismal numbers through 169 innings in center this season (-7 Defensive Runs Saved, -3 UZR, -3 Outs Above Average).

Laureano has a solid overall track record in center, however, and the Brewers are understandably on the hunt for options there after parting ways with Lorenzo Cain earlier this season. Twenty-eight-year-old Tyrone Taylor has stepped up as a frequent option in center, but his bat has wilted after a hot showing in May. Since June 1, Taylor is hitting just .198/.234/.358 with a 29.7% strikeout rate. Jonathan Davis has also seen time in center, providing good defense and also drawing some walks out of the nine-spot in the order, but he also has just one extra-base hit (a double) in 75 plate appearances.

Circling back to Laureano’s PED suspension, while it understandably will lead to some skepticism regarding Laureano’s prior performance, it should also be noted that the suspension effectively extended the Athletics’ club control over the outfielder. Laureano did not receive pay or service time while on the restricted list and entered the season with three years, 14 days of MLB service time. As such, he needed 158 days of service to reach four years and remain on track for free agency following the 2024 season. By the time Laureano was reinstated from that suspension, however, only 151 days of the current season remained.

As such, Laureano should be controllable for three more years beyond the current season, as opposed to the previously scheduled two. He’ll be eligible for arbitration raises in each of the three coming campaigns, building upon this year’s modest $2MM salary. That’s plenty affordable for any team but may hold particular appeal to a Brewers club with a massive arbitration class (headlined by Josh Hader, Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames).

The extended club control, however, also lessens the Athletics’ urgency to sell Laureano at all — particularly at a time when his offensive production is down a tick from prior seasons. If teams aren’t willing to put forth a compelling offer, the A’s can just hang onto Laureano into the offseason and revisit talks then, when he’d still have three full seasons of club control remaining.

In addition to the Brewers, the Marlins are also known to have interest in Laureano, and the Phillies, too, have been in search of center field upgrades.

A's, Cardinals Have Discussed Frankie Montas

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The Cardinals are “intent on upgrading the rotation, not just spackling it,” Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports in a comprehensive look at the team’s potential deadline trajectories. While past deadline trades have often brought stopgaps options to St. Louis (e.g. Jon Lester and J.A. Happ just last year), the Cardinals could aim a bit higher this time around. Athletics right-hander Frankie Montas and Marlins righty Pablo Lopez are among the starters in whom the Cards have expressed interest, per the report. Goold also lists Angels right-hander Noah Syndergaard as a name of interest, and there are surely others the Cardinals are considering as they look to offset injuries to Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz, Alex Reyes and Dakota Hudson (who has struggled even when healthy this season).

Latest On Trade Markets For Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas

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Reds righty Luis Castillo and A’s righty Frankie Montas are not and never have been teammates, but their trade markets have been near inextricably linked dating back to the offseason. That’s understandable, given the similarities between them. The 29-year-olds are separated by just three months in age, by about $2MM in salary and are both controlled through the end of the 2023 season. Statistically, they’re nearly identical — although Castillo has handled the larger workload in recent years. Both pitch for clubs that were more focused on cutting payroll and stashing prospects than on putting together a 2022 winner. As such, both are obvious trade candidates (and have been since the winter).

The Cardinals, Mariners and Yankees have been the three most aggressive teams on the Montas/Castillo front, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports, with the Twins, Blue Jays and Padres each also in the fold to varying extents. Jon Heyman of the New York Post also hears the Yankees are involved on both hurlers and calls adding a starter “a priority” for New York.

Bolstering the rotation is similarly going to be a key objective for St. Louis. The Cardinals have lost Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz to injury in recent weeks. Flaherty is already on the 60-day injured list and will be out until at least late August due to a shoulder strain. Matz tore the MCL in his left knee over the weekend. John Denton of MLB.com wrote a few days ago that Matz was optimistic about avoiding season-ending surgery, but he’s expected to be sidelined into September even if he can rehab without going under the knife.

The Cardinals also faced a rotation shortage at last summer’s deadline. They addressed that rather modestly, acquiring veterans Jon Lester and J.A. Happ as strike-throwing stabilizers at the back of the rotation. Robert Murray of FanSided reported last night the front office was looking for a higher-impact hurler than a Lester/Happ type this year, and a pursuit of Castillo and/or Montas certainly aligns with that assessment. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, meanwhile, writes that the Cardinals have explored the market for both impending free agents and starters with multiple remaining seasons of club control.

New York, meanwhile, recently lost Luis Severino to the injured list on account of a lat strain. New York welcomed back Domingo Germán to take his rotation spot, but there’s not a ton of proven healthy depth beyond their top five. The Yankees have also seen righty Jameson Taillon scuffle of late, leaving them scouring the market for additional help. Like the Cardinals, they seem to be casting a wide net. In addition to high-impact hurlers in the Castillo/Montas range, they’ve also been linked to Pittsburgh’s José Quintana, who’d be a lower-cost depth pickup at the back end.

As for the Mariners, they have a range of areas they can add over the next six days. The M’s just wrapped up a sweep of the Rangers to pull to 54-45. They’re ten games back of the Astros in the AL West but in possession of the American League’s second Wild Card spot. They’re three games clear of the Guardians, the non-playoff team with the best record in the league.

With a strong opportunity to snap a playoff drought that has lasted more than two decades, the Mariners are in position to seek impact talent. Seattle entered play Wednesday with the sixth-lowest rotation ERA (3.65) in the majors. They’re middle-of-the-pack from a strikeout/walk perspective, however, with both Chris Flexen and Marco Gonzales posting below-average strikeout rates. There are also possible innings concerns for highly-touted rookie George Kirby, who has already tallied 96 frames this season between the minors and big leagues. That’s above the 67 2/3 innings he logged in the upper minors last year, so there’s certainly room for another starter to relieve some of the pressure on Kirby down the stretch and for what the club hopes will be a postseason run.

Twins Rumors: Mahle, Castillo, Marlins, Coulombe, Winder, Catcher

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The Twins currently hold a 2.5-game lead in the American League Central, but another poor performance from a pitching staff that has squandered far too many leads this season cost them a win over the Brewers last night. Upgrading the pitching staff will be a priority for the Twins before next Tuesday’s deadline, and to that end, they’ve been in the market on both Reds ace Luis Castillo and Athletics top starter Frankie Montas, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, however, writes that the Twins are more interested in Castillo’s teammate Tyler Mahle than in Castillo himself. Hayes adds that the Twins have been in talks with the Marlins about pitching help. Minnesota and Miami, it should be noted, have had talks regarding potential swaps sending pitching to Minnesota frequently in offseasons past. The Marlins are reportedly open to offers on Pablo Lopez, and reliever Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro and Steven Okert are a few speculative trade candidates in the Marlins’ bullpen. Generally speaking, the Marlins are deep in pitching options that’ll appeal not only to the Twins but other clubs seeking upgrades.

Whether the preference for Mahle over Castillo — which Hayes also indicated back in the offseason — is a reflection of asking price or of the Twins’ belief that he has the superior raw stuff isn’t clear. But Mahle has flown somewhat under the radar for the past few seasons despite being quite similar, statistically, to both Castillo and Montas since 2020.

It’s hard not to wonder just what Mahle’s performance might look like in another uniform, as his numbers away from the homer-happy Great American Ball Park are tantalizing. Few pitchers have such a dramatic home/road split as Mahle, who since 2020 has pitched to a 2.93 ERA on the road but an ugly 4.89 mark at home. Mahle has allowed 1.75 homers per nine innings pitched in Cincinnati, compared to just 0.52 long balls per nine on the road. He also has a better strikeout rate and opponents’ hard-hit rate than either Castillo or Montas, dating back to 2020 — albeit with the highest walk rate of the three.

Broadly speaking, Mahle is much closer to the Montas/Castillo tier of pitcher than most pundits credit him. And, with a $5.2MM salary compared to Castillo’s $7.35MM mark, he’s a bit more affordable than his teammate and right in line with Montas ($5MM). Like that duo, he’s controlled through the 2023 season.

Mahle got out to an awful start in 2022, pitching to a 6.32 ERA through his first ten appearances. However, most of the damage against him came in two brutal outings — eight runs versus the Cubs on May 24 and seven runs against the Dodgers on April 17 — and he’s been excellent over the past two months. Dating back to May 29, Mahle has a 2.81 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in 51 1/3 innings. Overall, he’s sitting on a 4.48 ERA this season, but marks like xERA (3.30) and FIP (3.78) feel he’s been quite a bit better than that. A minor shoulder strain sent him to the IL earlier this month, but Mahle returned Sunday to fire six quality innings.

Regardless of the specific names they acquire, the Twins seem nearly certain to augment both their rotation and their bullpen in the next six days. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have been their only two consistently reliable arms, and their ’pen depth took a further hit yesterday when left-hander Danny Coulombe was transferred to the 60-day injured list. The Twins announced today that Coulombe required season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left hip, subtracting a quietly useful lefty from the mix.

The 32-year-old Coulombe is a journeyman southpaw who found a home in the Twins organization back in 2020. He only made two appearances with the Twins that season but returned on a minor league deal in 2021 and has been solid overall in the Twins’ relief corps. Dating back to 2020, Coulombe has pitched 49 1/3 innings with aa 2.92 ERA, 22% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate. He’ll get big league service time while finishing out the year on the 60-day IL, but he’ll be a clear non-tender candidate following that surgery.

Meanwhile, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that promising young righty Josh Winder, one of the Twins’ brightest arms and currently the game’s No. 68 prospect at Baseball America, is being shut due to recurring shoulder discomfort. The Twins are still trying to determine the cause of the issue, but the loss of Winder, who’s already given them 45 1/3 Major League innings (3.77 ERA) is a huge hit to the Twins’ rotation and bullpen depth.

For all the focus on the Twins’ pitching staff, it’s not their only area of need. Catcher Ryan Jeffers’ fractured thumb will sideline him for up to eight weeks, which has pushed Gary Sanchez into a starting catcher role with Minnesota. He’d previously been used more evenly between designated hitter and catcher, but Sanchez will now get the lion’s share of playing time behind the plate now. Caleb Hamilton, a 2016 23-round pick who’d never hit much above A-ball prior to this season, is currently serving as his backup.

It’s not terribly surprising, then, that Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North mentions in his latest podcast that the Twins will explore the market for a more veteran backup to Sanchez. Twins fans probably shouldn’t expect to see Willson Contreras riding into town anytime soon, but players like Tucker Barnhart or Pedro Severino jump out as possibly available veteran backups.

Wolfson adds, via Twitter, that outfield prospect Matt Wallner and infield prospect Spencer Steer have been mentioned in trade scenarios the team has had recently —  and understandably so. Wallner, the No. 39 overall pick in 2019, recently jumped to Triple-A after posting a .299/.436/.597 batting line (157 wRC+) and 21 homers in 342 plate appearances with the Twins’ Double-A club. Steer, selected just 51 picks after Wallner, is hitting a combined .274/.359/.549 in 78 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He recently just landed in the No. 99 spot on Baseball America’s latest Top 100 prospect ranking. Certainly, neither Wallner nor Steer would be included in a small trade for a backup catcher, but it’s easy to see both being the type of players coveted by teams peddling controllable help in the rotation and bullpen.

Draft Signings: Padres, A’s, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks

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A few more high draft picks have agreed to terms within the past day. We’ll round up today’s news here:

  • The Padres are in agreement with #15 overall pick Dylan Lesko, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). The right-hander will receive a $3.9MM signing bonus that checks in a bit shy of the selection’s $4.09MM slot value. Lesko, a 6’3″ hurler from a Georgia high school, was rated by Baseball America as the #13 prospect in the class. Widely regarded as the draft’s top pitcher for much of the spring, Lesko required Tommy John surgery in April. That perhaps cost him an opportunity to go in the top ten, but he still went midway through the first round and received a strong bonus to bypass a commitment to Vanderbilt. Aside from the injury and the inherent risk associated with any high school hurler, there’s little in Lesko’s profile to nitpick. Before the surgery, he’d run his fastball into the mid-90s with a changeup that BA calls “one of the best the industry has seen from a high school pitcher,” along with a high-spin curveball. He adds a high-upside arm to the lower levels of the San Diego system, although it remains to be seen how much he’ll be able to pitch before the end of next season.
  • The A’s are in agreement with #19 selection Daniel Susac, Callis reports (on Twitter). The former University of Arizona catcher receives a $3.5312MM bonus that matches the slot value. The righty-hitting backstop, ranked the #11 player in the class by Baseball America, is coming off a massive .366/.430/.582 showing through 312 plate appearances during his second season with the Wildcats. He’s regarded as a bat-first backstop with good pull-side power, but both BA and Callis suggest he’s a good enough receiver to stick behind the plate, where his plus arm strength will be an asset. Susac’s older brother Andrew Susac spent parts of six seasons in the big leagues with the Giants, Brewers, Orioles and Pirates.
  • The Blue Jays have agreed to terms with first-round pick Brandon Barriera, reports Callis (Twitter link). The left-hander out of a Florida high school receives a $3.5975MM bonus that checks in a fair bit north of the $3.08MM slot value associated with the #23 pick. Barriera, who is also foregoing a Vanderbilt commitment, is a 5’11” hurler who can run his fastball into the mid-90s. He was ranked by Baseball America as the #17 player in the class, and both BA and Callis credit him with a possible plus slider and note he was among the top southpaws available.
  • The Diamondbacks have come to terms with right-hander Landon Sims, Callis reports (Twitter link). It’s a $2.34705MM bonus for the Mississippi State product, right around the slot value for the #34 overall pick. Sims was a lights-out closer for the Bulldogs in 2021, tossing 56 1/3 innings of 1.44 ERA ball with an otherworldly 46.9% strikeout rate to help MSU to a national title. The team attempted to transition him to the rotation this spring, but Sims blew out just three starts in and required Tommy John surgery. The injury has kept Sims from establishing any sort of track record as a starter, but both Callis and BA praise his mid-90s fastball and wipeout slider. He was the #35 prospect in the class, according to Baseball America.
  • In addition to Lesko, the Padres are in agreement with their second-highest selection. Callis reports (on Twitter) that #39 pick Robby Snelling has agreed to terms on a $3MM bonus that shatters the $2MM slot value. Snelling was generally seen as a mid-late first round talent, and his bonus is commensurate with that view. A left-handed pitcher from a Nevada high school, he was rated by BA as the #21 prospect in the class. Both Callis and BA credit Snelling with one of the better curveballs in the draft, and the latter outlet suggests he has a chance to develop plus control. Snelling had been committed to LSU.

Athletics’ Sean Murphy Drawing Trade Interest

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The rebuilding A’s are getting plenty of interest in catcher Sean Murphy, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes in his latest notes column. A deal isn’t necessarily likely, given the 27-year-old’s three remaining seasons of club control beyond the current campaign, but Oakland does have a pair of highly touted catchers progressing through the minors in Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom. Langeliers, acquired from the Braves in the offseason Matt Olson trade, is particularly close to the big leagues, having slashed .267/.356/.503 with 17 homers, 14 doubles, a pair of triples and five steals (in five tries) through 77 Triple-A games this season.

Because of that remaining club control, Murphy would make sense for contenders and non-contenders alike (as recently explored by MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald). Postseason hopefuls like the Mets, Rays and Guardians (among others) have received poor production from their backstops this season and, speculatively speaking, would be candidates to improve behind the plate. At the same time, current non-contenders with holes or underwhelming production behind the plate could look to Murphy as a potential key contributor for 2023 and beyond. For instance, the Marlins’ efforts to land their catcher of the future have yet to bear fruit, as Jacob Stallings has struggled mightily in his first season with the Fish. Over in Colorado, the three-year extension given to Elias Diaz looks like a misstep, given his .237/.294/.378 batting line and deteriorated defensive ratings.

Murphy is only arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, so his payroll shouldn’t be much of a consideration for any team looking to acquire him. His exact salary won’t be known until the offseason, but Murphy’s pre-arbitration resume won’t be as decorated as that of fellow trade candidate Willson Contreras, who earned $4.5MM in his first trip through the process. In terms of counting stats, Murphy currently compares favorably to Mitch Garver’s pre-arb platform — Garver earned $1.875MM — but he still has the remainder of the season to add to those totals. Murphy’s 2021 Gold Glove Award will deservedly work in his favor, likely pushing him a ways past that Garver point, but generally speaking, he’s not going to break the bank in terms of salary just yet.

While few teams are going to dramatically alter their valuation based on a couple weeks of playing time, a well-timed hot streak like the one Murphy is currently enjoying can’t hurt the A’s and could give them a slight bit more leverage when negotiating secondary pieces in a potential trade. Murphy has been on fire in July, hitting .333/.395/.515 with a pair of homers and six doubles in 72 trips to the plate. Dating back to June 1, he’s at .291/.354/.454. It’s an arbitrary cutoff, but Murphy’s strong summer reminds that he’s one of the more well-rounded catchers in the game.

Defensively, Murphy is a 2021 Gold Glover who currently boasts a 34% caught-stealing rate and a pair of pickoffs this season. He’s tallied 12 Defensive Runs Saved over the past three seasons, posting perennially strong framing marks along the way. He’s yielded only two passed balls since Opening Day 2021 despite ranking fifth among all Major Leaguers with 1553 innings caught in that time.

It bears repeating that there’s little urgency for Oakland to move Murphy, who’ll be affordable again next season and should command a significant return whether he’s moved in the next week, this offseason, next summer or even in the 2023-24 offseason. At the same time, if a team is prepared to make a substantial offer, there’s little reason for this iteration of the A’s not to consider that offer. The Athletics are extremely unlikely to compete in 2023 after their recent slate of trades (and after the expected trade of Frankie Montas over the next week), and they’re the rare big league team for which catching is a position of organizational strength.

Draft Signings: Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, Astros, A’s, Blue Jays

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We’ll use this post to round up some of the more notable recent draft signings:

  • The Phillies announced they’ve signed #17 overall pick Justin Crawford. Jim Callis of MLB.com reports (Twitter link) that the lefty-hitting outfielder will receive a $3.8948MM signing bonus, a hair above the pick’s slot value. Crawford, the son of four-time All-Star Carl Crawford, was ranked by Baseball America as the #18 prospect in the class. A product of a Nevada high school, Crawford is an excellent runner who’s regarded as a possible plus defender in center field. The 6’3″ outfielder is seen as a hit-over-power offensive player. He’d been committed to LSU.
  • The Red Sox agreed to a deal with #24 selection Mikey Romero, as first reported by Chad Jennings of the Athletic (on Twitter). It’s a $2.3MM deal to convince the infielder to bypass a commitment to LSU. A left-handed hitter from a California high school, Romero was ranked the #54 prospect in the class by BA, explaining why his deal comes in a fair bit shy of the pick’s $2.98MM slot value. BA praises his bat-to-ball skills but notes that his slender frame leads to below-average raw power.
  • The Yankees announced agreement with #25 pick Spencer Jones. Callis reports (Twitter link) that he’ll sign for slot value at $2.8808MM. The class’s #49 prospect according to Baseball America, Jones is a 6’7″ outfielder from Vanderbilt. The left-hander posted a massive .370/.460/.644 showing with 12 home runs and 14 stolen bases through 272 plate appearances during his final season with the Commodores. Jones stuck out at a lofty 23.5% rate, an unsurprising development for a player of his size, but his combination of power and athleticism got him into the late first round.
  • Astros first-round pick Drew Gilbert has signed, according to a club announcement. Callis reports (Twitter link) he’s landed a $2.5MM bonus, a little under the $2.62MM value of the 28th overall pick. A left-handed hitting center fielder from the University of Tennessee, Gilbert was the #24 prospect in the class, per BA. The 5’9″ outfielder has a well-rounded offensive skillset and a good chance to stick in center field, and he’s coming off a .362/.455/.673 showing with more walks than strikeouts in a breakout junior season for the Vols.
  • The A’s are in agreement on an overslot deal with 2nd-round pick Henry Bolte, Callis reports (on Twitter). He’ll receive a $2MM bonus to sway him out of a commitment to Texas. A 6’3″ outfielder from the Bay Area, Bolte entered the draft as the #42 prospect in Baseball America’s estimation. He’s regarded as one of the higher-upside players in the class, showing an enviable combination of power, speed and center defense. However, the right-handed hitter also comes with question marks about the high amount of swing-and-miss in his game.
  • The Blue Jays went overslot with a $2MM bonus for supplemental second-round pick Tucker Toman, Callis reports (on Twitter). That’s more than double the $846,900 slot value associated with the #77 overall selection. That reflects a loftier prospect status, as the 18-year-old infielder from a South Carolina high school had been the #40 player in the class, according to BA. A 6’1″ infielder, Toman is a switch-hitter with a chance for a strong hit/power combination, although it’s questionable whether he can stay on the dirt or will eventually have to move to the corner outfield. Like Crawford and Romero, he’ll forego a commitment to LSU and start his pro career.

This Trade Candidate Is Better Than His ERA

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Going into this offseason, the writing seemed to be on the wall in Oakland. All of the rumors pointed to a big selloff, with any player approaching free agency expected to be traded for prospects. Though the club waited until after the lockout to pull the trigger, they eventually traded Matt Chapman, Matt Olson and Chris Bassitt within a week of the resumption of transactions. Sean Manaea would follow them out the door a couple of weeks later.

There were a few names that were mentioned in rumors who didn’t end up moving, with Frankie Montas being the most obvious trade candidate still wearing green and gold. He seems likely to be traded in the next two weeks, as long as his shoulder cooperates. There was also Ramon Laureano and Sean Murphy, though their extra years of control likely made them less of a priority for the Oakland brass. Plus, Laureano had the remainder of his suspension as a complicating factor.

Then there’s Lou Trivino, who emerged as the club’s closer last year, racking up 22 saves. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after the 2024 season, meaning there was no rush for the A’s to trade him this winter. But given the volatility of relief pitchers, there would have been logic to cutting a deal in the offseason, even though there were a few years of club control remaining. Since a quick drop in performance can cause a reliever’s trade value to plummet in kind, it often makes sense to take the proverbial cash on the barrelhead.

The team has clearly had bigger fish to fry, however, working out those aforementioned trades and surely discussing Montas deals as we speak. But in that space between the offseason and today, Trivino has gone out and demonstrated the capricious nature of bullpen arms by having the worst season of his career, at least in terms of earned runs. The righty had a 3.70 career ERA coming into the season but has a mark almost double that for the year, currently sitting on a 6.59.

Despite that ugly ERA, there are other statistics that would suggest he has actually taken a step forward this season. His ground ball rate was 46.1% coming into the season but is at 49.4% this year. His 28.9% strikeout rate on the year is well above the 23.9% of prior seasons. His walk rate of 9.6% is slightly above league average, but better than his own previous mark of 10.9%.

More grounders, more strikeouts, fewer walks and yet his ERA has jumped by almost three full runs? The answer to the riddle seems to be contact. A look at Trivino’s Statcast page shows a bit of red for things like strikeouts and fastball velocity, but a bit of blue for hard hit percentage (27th percentile) and barrel percentage (33rd percentile). That certainly suggests that, despite the extra Ks, Trivino is getting hit harder when batters do make contact.

However, there’s actually not that much of a difference to previous seasons. His 8.5% barrel percentage on the year is just barely above the 7.8% he had last year and actually below the 10.5% rate of 2020. His 41.5% hard hit percentage is the highest he’s ever had, but not drastically higher than the 35.7% rate of his career overall. His 13.6% HR/FB rate is above the 10.8% rate of prior seasons, but again, by a reasonable margin. A major factor seems to be luck, as Trivino’s batting average on balls in play this year is a whopping .468, well above the league .285 league average for relievers this year and Trivino’s .275 mark coming into the season.

One potential explanation for the sudden burst in BABIP is Trivino’s sinker. Last year, it had an average exit velocity of 88.3 mph and a launch angle of four degrees, fairly expected numbers for a pitch often used to get ground balls. This year, the exit velocity has dropped to 85.3 mph and the launch angle even lower at -5 degrees. However, opponents are hitting .486 on the pitch this year compared to .329 last year.

Regardless of the cause, the advanced metrics all seem to indicate that Trivino has been better than his 6.59 ERA would indicate, much better in fact. He has a 3.01 SIERA on the season, a 3.81 xERA, 3.22 FIP and 2.99 xFIP. All of those numbers suggest that the baseball gods have been staunchly against Trivino this season and that he really has been his old self all along.

Baseball front offices are surely sophisticated enough to appreciate all of this and still see the value in Trivino as a pitcher. He has a very diverse arsenal as a reliever, with a five-pitch mix that allows him to be effective in various different scenarios. He’s making a modest $3MM salary this year and can be controlled for two more seasons beyond that via arbitration. Despite his unsightly ERA on the year, there’s still plenty to like, meaning any acquiring team should be happy to have him.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

A Cheap And Controllable Catcher That Could Be Available At The Deadline

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On MLBTR’s recent list of trade candidates, the top name was a catcher, Willson Contreras. There are lots of reasons to expect he will be moved in the coming weeks, as he’s an impending free agent who is playing well for a bad team. There’s always the chance of the Cubs working out an extension to keep him, but based on the way Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo were all dealt last year, it seems reasonable to expect that Contreras is following them out of town.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at the potential fits, finding the Astros, Mets, Rays and Giants as the most likely, though listing plenty of other teams that make sense to some degree. Only one of them will get Contreras, however, leaving those other teams with issues behind the plate and having to consider other options. The only other catcher to crack MLBTR’s list was down at #41: Sean Murphy of the Athletics.

Though Contreras and Murphy are both catchers, there are many ways in which their situations are different. While Contreras is a rental and earning a $9.625MM salary this year, Murphy has yet to reach arbitration and still has three years of cheap control remaining. Contreras is also considered a bat-first catcher whereas Murphy has generally earned more praise for the defensive side of his game.

There are plenty of reasons for the A’s to hold onto Murphy, which is why he was so much lower on the MLBTR rankings than Contreras. Though the A’s have traded away many core players in the past year, those were guys who had come close to free agency and made themselves more expensive through arbitration. Murphy is still cheap and controllable, not to mention talented. He picked up a Gold Glove award last year for his excellent defense and was considered the third best catcher in the majors by the Fielding Bible Awards voting, behind Jacob Stallings and Austin Hedges. He’s also no slouch at the plate, with a career batting line of .229/.316/.423. That amounts to a wRC+ of 108, or 8% above league average. This year, his line is a smidge below that pace, coming in at .241/.308/.409, but that’s still a wRC+ of 106. His walk rate is a bit below his previous levels, but he’s also striking out less. That above-average batting line, when combined with his excellent defense, has allowed him to produce 2.3 wins above replacement on the year already, according to FanGraphs.

So, why even consider trading him then? For one thing, they could surely ask for a haul in return, given all those aforementioned attributes. There’s also the position of the team, who are currently 32-61, the worst record in the American League and ahead of only the Nationals among all teams in the majors. They’re certainly not competitive now and it’s hard to imagine them completely remaking themselves fast enough to suddenly become competitors again in 2023. Even if they feel 2024 is realistic, Murphy will be in his penultimate year of control by then, the same situation that players like Matt Olson and Matt Chapman were in when they were traded this offseason.

There’s also another factor to consider, which is that the A’s have one of the best catching prospects in baseball knocking on the door of the big leagues. Acquired in the Olson trade, Shea Langeliers is considered the #83 prospect in the sport by Baseball America, #52 by FanGraphs, #81 by ESPN, #80 by The Athletic and #31 by MLB Pipeline. Like Murphy, he is considered a glove-first catcher, but still hits at an above-average rate. This year, in 74 Triple-A games, he’s hit 16 home runs, stolen five bases and walked in 11.8% of his plate appearances. His batting line of .272/.364/.505 amounts to a 115 wRC+, or 15% above league average. He recently represented the American League in the 2022 Futures Game, earning MVP honors after hitting a home run and throwing out an attempted base stealer.

Langeliers is now 24 years old, turning 25 in the offseason. If the A’s were able to find an offer on Murphy that they liked, they could pull the trigger on a deal and let Langeliers have the final two months of the season to get acquainted with the big league pitching staff and life in the big leagues generally, going into the offseason with the torch already passed. The A’s reportedly considered dealing Murphy this past offseason, and that was before Langeliers had been acquired.

The club’s catching depth doesn’t stop there, as they also have Tyler Soderstrom in the system. He also shows up on all five of those aforementioned prospect lists, ahead of Langeliers in each case. However, there are some question marks there, as he is still just 20 years old, playing in High-A and predicted to move out from behind the plate down the line. (He’s played more first base than catcher this year.)

For a team looking to add a catcher, Murphy might be more appealing than Contreras due to his extra control. The Guardians, for instance, have Austin Hedges as their primary catcher right now. He is an impending free agent and is hitting just .172/.227/.270 this year. As a team that’s 2 1/2 games back of the Wild Card, they might not want to give up prospects for a rental like Contreras, and might also balk at his salary given their low-payroll ways. Acquiring Murphy, however, would allow them to upgrade on Hedges for a postseason push this year but also three more seasons. The Marlins recently acquired Jacob Stallings to be their backstop, though he’s having a terrible year at the plate and is turning 33 this winter. They’re 5 1/2 games out of the playoffs right now and would likely not be interested in rentals. The Twins recently put Ryan Jeffers on the IL and aren’t expecting him back for a couple of months. That leaves them with impending free agent Gary Sanchez as their primary catcher. Perhaps they’d consider a Sanchez-Murphy tandem now that leads into a Murphy-Jeffers pairing next year. Christian Vazquez is having a nice season for the Red Sox, but both he and backup Kevin Plawecki are heading into free agency in a few months. Acquiring Murphy could spare them worrying about their catching situation in an offseason when they might also lose J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts and Nathan Eovaldi. They’re also just outside the playoffs right now, two games back, and would surely prefer non-rentals.

Murphy is in a little bit of trade candidate limbo right now, as the same things that make him appealing to other teams will make the A’s want to hang onto him. However, if some team steps up and places a striking offer in front of them, the presence of Langeliers could allow them to stay strong behind the plate while stockpiling talent for other areas of the roster. Given his three remaining years of control, they don’t have to make a trade between now and the August 2 deadline. They could wait until the offseason and take their time looking for the best deal. However, there might be other sellers who join them at that point, such as the Blue Jays, who will have to figure out their logjam of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, Zack Collins and Gabriel Moreno. The emergence of William Contreras gives the Braves a future surplus, as they also have Travis d’Arnaud and Manny Pina under contract for next year. (Pina is out for the rest of this year, meaning it’s not an issue now.) Tom Murphy is also done for the year but has one season of team control remaining. Maybe the M’s consider moving him in the winter, as Cal Raleigh has taken over and is having a breakout campaign. There’s lots of uncertainty in that future, but for the next couple of weeks, the A’s have the best and perhaps only non-rental catcher available. Although they don’t have to make a deal in the coming days, it’s possible that it’s actually the best time.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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