Angels Notes: Wantz, Stephenson, Suarez
The Angels are stretching reliever Andrew Wantz out as a starter this spring, manager Ron Washington revealed today in chatting with the team’s beat writers (X link via The Athletic’s Sam Blum). The 28-year-old righty has worked almost exclusively as a reliever dating back to the 2021 season, but the Halos feel they need more rotation depth than they have at present, per Washington.
Wantz has been a frequent contributor in the Anaheim bullpen in each of the past three seasons, posting particularly solid results in 2022-23. Over the last two big league campaigns, he’s totaled 89 1/3 frames and worked to a 3.51 ERA, albeit with more dubious underlying numbers.
Wantz sports a roughly average 23.4% strikeout rate in that time but has walked just under 10% of his opponents and averaged 1.2 big flies per nine frames. He’s had some good fortune on balls in play (.232 BABIP), although as an extreme fly-ball pitcher, he’s more apt to carry a lower-than-average mark in that regard. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (4.32) and SIERA (4.17) feel he’s been solid but perhaps not quite to the extent his ERA would suggest.
While Wantz is no stranger to working multiple innings — he had 11 appearances lasting two innings in 2023 — he’s never pitched more than 2 1/3 innings in a single big league outing. The transition won’t be entirely foreign to him, given he made 18 minor league starts during the 2019 season, but it’s been a good while since he’s been tasked with working in longer stints.
Of course, if the Angels are truly concerned about their rotation depth, there are some rather straightforward ways to address that need. The free agent market is still rife with options, including top names like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, in addition to solid mid-rotation/back-end arms like Mike Clevinger and Michael Lorenzen. There are a handful of rebound candidates who could likely be had on low-cost one-year or even minor league deals, including Eric Lauer, Jake Odorizzi and Johnny Cueto (among others).
From a payroll vantage point, the Angels should be able to accommodate just about anyone — even Snell or Montgomery. After opening the 2023 season with a payroll north of $212MM, they’re projected for a $173.4MM mark, per RosterResource. The Angels are also nearly $50MM shy of the first tier of luxury penalization, so they could accommodate either a long-term deal or a short-term, high-AAV deal with multiple opt-out opportunities, depending on the preferences of Snell/Montgomery. Moving further down the free agent pecking order, someone like Lorenzen or Clevinger could be signed without pushing payroll anywhere close to record levels.
Historically speaking, however, Angels owner Arte Moreno has steadfastly refused to commit long-term deals to pitchers. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, last year’s three-year, $39MM deal with Tyler Anderson was the first time the Halos inked a free agent pitcher to a multi-year deal since Joe Blanton‘s two-year deal in 2012. You’d have to go way back to C.J. Wilson in 2011 to find the last time the Halos went more than three years on a pitcher.
The Angels haven’t eschewed spending entirely, but they’ve once again focused their free agent efforts on the bullpen. That’s been a familiar trend for the Angels in recent years. Already this offseason, they’ve committed a combined a combined $50.6MM to Robert Stephenson, Matt Moore, Adam Cimber, Luis Garcia, Jose Cisnero and Adam Kolarek. Dating back to the 2021-22 offseason, the Angels have given out 13 big league deals to free-agent relievers — including five multi-year pacts (topped by Raisel Iglesias‘ four-year, $58MM deal).
It’s been a questionable strategy for them, given the team’s results over the years. And this year’s group is already off to a somewhat dubious start. As Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports, Stephenson — who signed a three-year, $33MM deal this winter — is dealing with shoulder soreness and is behind schedule in camp. The right-hander believes he’ll be able to pitch at some point this spring but might not be ready for Opening Day.
It’s a suboptimal start to his Angels tenure after the team made a weighty three-year investment on the heels of Stephenson’s four-month breakout with the Rays. The hard-throwing righty was long viewed as an interesting prospect and has had flashes of excellence in his big league career. He’d never put together any kind of run like he did with Tampa Bay last year, though.
After being acquired from the Pirates in a trade sending infielder Alika Williams to Pittsburgh, Stephenson snapped off 38 1/3 innings of 2.35 ERA ball with a gaudy 42.9% strikeout rate against just a 5.7% walk rate. Beyond the eye-popping strikeout rate, Stephenson posted a superhuman 28.9% swinging-strike rate (nearly triple the 11.1% league average) and induced chases on pitches off the plate at a stunning 47.2% clip that topped the league-average 31.9% rate by nearly 16 percentage points.
The Angels are surely envisioning Stephenson as a critical part of their high-leverage relief corps, but word of an early shoulder issue that’s slowed his progression is obviously somewhat ominous. To this point, there’s no indication of a serious issue, but given the magnitude of the team’s investment in the righty, it’s understandable if the Halos want to proceed with caution. Stephenson played catch yesterday and felt good after throwing, Fletcher notes.
Stephenson isn’t the only pitcher in camp who’s a bit banged up. Washington also revealed today (via Fletcher) that lefty Jose Suarez hasn’t pitched yet due to a “dead arm” following winter ball. He’s expected to get on the mound at some point this spring and could yet be ready for Opening Day, but that’s not a given.
It’s a tough way to start a pivotal spring for the 26-year-old Suarez. As recently as 2021-22, he looked the part of a controllable fourth starter who could hold a rotation spot in Anaheim for several years. The 2023 season was an unmitigated disaster for the southpaw, however. Shoulder trouble limited him to just 33 2/3 big league innings (plus another 3 1/3 frames of rehab work), and he was shelled for an 8.29 ERA in that time. Suarez served up a massive ten home runs in that small sample (2.67 HR/9), saw his strikeout rate plummet from 22.3% to 17%, and watched his walk rate spike from 7.1% to 12.1%.
A 2024 rebound for Suarez is particularly critical, given that he’s now out of minor league options. If he opens the season on the injured list, that’d actually give the Angels a few weeks to take a look at Suarez in the minors on a rehab assignment, but whenever he’s healthy, he’ll either need to be on the big league roster or else be traded to a team who’ll carry him or exposed to outright waivers.
Tigers Claim Buddy Kennedy, Designate Andre Lipcius
The Tigers have claimed infielder Buddy Kennedy off waivers from the Cardinals, per announcements from both clubs. The Cards had designated him for assignment earlier this week. The Tigers designated infielder Andre Lipcius for assignment in a corresponding move.
Kennedy, 25, has 40 games of major league experience, all with the Diamondbacks. He has hit a mere .206/.293/.299 in his 123 major league plate appearances thus far, though that’s obviously a small sample size. But in Triple-A last year, his work was much more impressive. He walked more than he struck out, 16.8% walk rate versus a 16.3% strikeout rate, and slashed .318/.444/.481. That production was in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League but nonetheless translated to a 133 wRC+, indicating he was 33% better than league average.
The Snakes designated him for assignment in September and he has bounced to a few rosters since then. He was claimed off waivers by the Athletics towards the end of last season, then was claimed again by the Cardinals in October. That makes today his third waiver claim in the past six months.
The Tigers are likely intrigued by that minor league offense, as well as Kennedy’s positional versatility. He has played all three non-shortstop infield positions as well as a brief look in left field. He also has an option remaining, so they can keep him in Triple-A as depth if he doesn’t earn a spot on the active roster.
The Detroit infield is likely to be Gio Urshela, Javier Báez, Colt Keith and Spencer Torkelson from left to right. There’s a bit of uncertainty there as Keith has yet to make his major league debut, Urshela missed the second half of 2023 due to a pelvic fracture and Báez is coming off the worst full season of his career. Their depth/bench options include Zach McKinstry, Matt Vierling, Andy Ibañez, Ryan Kreidler, Eddys Leonard and Wenceel Pérez. Many of those guys also play the outfield so the depth chart will likely be affected by overall health of the position player mix in Detroit. Kennedy will try to earn his way up the ladder, as long as he continues to hang onto a 40-man spot.
Lipcius, 26 in May, would have been in that mix as well but he has been bounced off the roster for now. He made his major league debut last year and put up a solid line of .286/.342/.400 but in just 38 plate appearances. His 419 Triple-A appearances finished with a walk 12.4% of the time and he produced a line of .272/.363/.419, though that only translated to a 99 wRC+ in last year’s robo-ump-aided environment.
It seems the Tigers preferred Kennedy to Lipcius, so they will now have one week to work something out with the latter, either a trade or passing him through waivers. Lipcius has always drawn plenty of walks in the minors and can also line up defensively all over the diamond. He hasn’t played shortstop since 2019 but played the other three infield spots last year and the outfield corners as well. That versatility and his keen eye at the plate could garner some interest around the league, especially with a couple of option years remaining. If he were to pass through unclaimed, he would stick with the Tigers in a non-roster capacity.
Rays Notes: Lowe, Chang, Littell
The Rays are shutting down outfielder Josh Lowe from all baseball activity for the next six days due to inflammation in his left hip, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Lowe could be out of games for up to 15 days while he lets the issue calm down, but manager Kevin Cash tells Topkin that the team is “not overly concerned” and doesn’t think Lowe is in jeopardy of missing Opening Day.
The 26-year-old Lowe had a breakout 2023 season, slashing .292/.335/.500 with 20 homers, 32 stolen bases and quality defense across all three outfield spots (primarily right field). The majority of his playing time came against right-handed pitching, though Lowe wasn’t completely overmatched even in 67 left-on-left matchups (.238/.284/.429). He’s expected to be in the lineup on a near-everyday basis in 2024, so while the team and player are both projecting confidence he’ll be ready for the start of the season, his progression from the current hip issue is worth watching with a careful eye. If Lowe were to wind up missing time, Jonny DeLuca and Richie Palacios would be among the options to step up.
Also ailing is non-roster invitee Yu Chang, who’ll be down at least two weeks with an oblique injury, per the Times’ Kristie Ackert (X link). If testing reveals a strain of any note, there’s a chance Chang could miss the remainder of camp, as even Grade 1 oblique strains regularly shelve players for a month or more. Cash seems to be anticipating an absence of some note, calling the injury “unfortunate” and noting that Chang will likely “miss some time” (via Topkin’s column).
The slick-fielding Chang went 1-for-3 with a homer to begin his spring tenure with the Rays as he competes for what would be his second MLB stint with the team. As a career .204/.269/.359 hitter in 650 big league plate appearances, Chang would seem unlikely to provide the Rays with much at the plate — should be make the team. However, he’s a strong and versatile defender, with at least 300 innings and quality defensive ratings at all four infield spots.
Like Chang, right-hander Zack Littell is no stranger to coming to big league camp and fighting for a job. This spring is different for the 28-year-old, however, as he’s locked into a rotation spot for the first time in his career. He spoke with MLB.com’s Adam Berry about the freedom that gives him to experiment with tweaks to his pitches, mechanics, etc. without fearing poor results will cost him a job.
“It’s nice to have a true six weeks where … you can go out there and you can really play with this stuff and find what works, and either run with it or say, ‘Hey, we’re going the wrong direction,'” Littell said.
Though he was a starter in the upper minors and a well-regarded prospect with the Mariners, Yankees and Twins, Littell quickly settled into a relief role in the majors and has since begun to bounce around the league via a series of DFAs and waiver claims. The Rays claimed him from the Red Sox last May, initially deploying him in his familiar bullpen role, but stretched Littell back out closer to the trade deadline as injuries on the pitching staff mounted.
Few could’ve predicted just how well what looked like a desperation move wound up panning out. Over a span of 11 starts, Littell posted a 3.38 ERA in 65 innings of work. That mark was propped up by a .262 average on balls in play and 77% strand rate; paired with a sub-par strikeout rate, it led metrics like FIP (4.04) and SIERA (4.26) to take a bit more of a bearish outlook on Littell’s contributions. It’s also worth wondering whether he can sustain the sensational 1.9% walk rate — more than six percentage points south of his career mark — he turned in during that time.
Regardless, Littell pitched his way into an opportunity to show he can sustain success out of a big league rotation. Cash made perfectly clear that he’ll be given every chance to do so, telling Berry that Littell is currently in line to start the team’s second or third game of the season.
If the Rays have pulled yet another rabbit out of their hat on the starting pitching front and can successfully keep Littell productive in his new role, it’ll prove to be an affordable, multi-year solution. As a player with 4.043 years of MLB service, Littell is under club control through 2025. And with his limited big league track record to date, this year’s arbitration salary clocked in at a modest $1.85MM. If he can indeed sustain some of last year’s rotation success, he could hold a spot in the rotation into next season, when he’d likely still cost the club under $5MM.
Matt Brash Could Face Lengthy Absence
Feb. 29: The Mariners are hoping to have a formal update on Brash’s status tomorrow, manager Scott Servais said Thursday (X link via Divish).
Feb. 28: Mariners setup men Matt Brash and Gregory Santos were both shut down last week due to arm troubles, and while it appears there’s good news on one, the outlook on the other is ominous. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports that Santos played catch yesterday and is beginning a throwing progression, but Brash is potentially facing an “extensive” absence. There’s some concern that Brash’s entire 2024 season may be in jeopardy, per Divish.
An absence of even moderate length for Brash would be a critical blow for the Mariners, who acquired the hard-throwing righty in a heist of a trade with the Padres and have since watched him blossom into a top prospect and potentially elite reliever. Brash’s 3.06 ERA in 70 2/3 innings last season is an impressive mark on its own, but that number doesn’t appropriately highlight some off-the-charts secondary metrics and a sensational four-month finish to close out the 2023 season.
Even as Brash posted a pedestrian 4.28 ERA through the season’s first two months, he was striking out a staggering 39.8% of his opponents against a respectable 8.9% walk rate. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (1.92) and SIERA (2.34) were far, far more bullish on his work than his more rudimentary ERA.
Those numbers indeed proved a portent for a breakout. From Memorial Day weekend through season’s end, Brash turned in a sensational 2.36 ERA. His strikeout rate in that time clocked in at 32.4% against a 9.7% walk rate. Brash averaged a blistering 98.2 mph on his heater, generated swinging strikes at a hefty 15.4% clip and induced chases off the plate at a 33.6% rate — all while keeping the ball on the ground at a solid 44.4% clip. He finished the season with four saves and another 24 holds. Skeptics may want to see him sustain that over a full season or two, but that overpowering stretch had all the characteristics of one of MLB’s best relievers.
Unfortunately, it seems Brash might not get the opportunity to prove he can sustain that breakout for some time. Neither the team nor the player himself has provided any specifics as to the nature of the arm injury with which he’s dealing. Brash downplayed the issue last week, telling Divish and others that he’s simply “banged up,” while GM Justin Hollander merely stated that the hope was for Brash to return to a throwing program sooner than later. The lack of any real detail on the injury seemed foreboding at the time.
If the 25-year-old Brash is indeed going to be sidelined for a substantial portion — or, far worse, the entirety — of the 2024 campaign, a strong Mariners bullpen will take an unequivocal hit. Seattle relievers were fourth in the Majors with a 3.48 ERA last season and led the big leagues with a 3.64 SIERA. Brash played a major part, as did the since-traded Justin Topa, who went to the Twins as part of the Jorge Polanco deal.
The surprise acquisition of Santos late in the offseason helped to compensate for Topa’s departure, but a major injury for Brash would be difficult to overcome. His production throughout the summer and down the stretch in 2023 simply isn’t the type of performance that can be readily replaced.
The Mariners would still have one of the game’s best relievers, Andres Munoz, closing out games. Santos would headline a setup corps also featuring Gabe Speier, Trent Thornton and Tayler Saucedo — all of whom posted solid numbers in 2023 but have minimal big league track records.
There’s also still at least one notable reliever in free agency (Ryne Stanek), and the Mariners have had perhaps more success than any team in MLB at converting unheralded waiver pickups and minor league signees into impact relievers in recent years. Flamethrower Carlos Vargas, acquired in the Eugenio Suarez trade, is one power-armed candidate for such a breakout in Seattle. None of that takes away from the magnitude of a notable Brash injury, and at this stage of the offseason, the options to make a move to counteract such a significant loss are limited.
Rays Re-Sign Francisco Mejia To Minor League Deal
10:40am: The deal is now official. The Rays announced Mejia has been signed to a minor league pact and invited to spring training.
10:00am: The Rays are finalizing a deal to bring free agent catcher Francisco Mejia back to the organization, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. It’ll be a minor league contract with an invite to spring training for the ISE client. Mejia was granted his release from a minor league deal with the Angels last month.
Tampa Bay currently plans to deploy defensive standout Rene Pinto as its starting catcher, and non-roster invitee Alex Jackson has been expected to serve as his backup. Topkin adds that those plans remain unchanged even with Mejia on the brink of returning to the organization he played for from 2021-23. Mejia will give the Rays a depth option behind that unproven tandem for the time being. Injuries or poor performances — either in spring training or early in the season — can always change that equation, of course.
The 28-year-old Mejia was once considered one of baseball’s top all-around prospects, but he’s yet to hit at the big league level despite a strong .306/.350/.519 track record at the Triple-A level (633 plate appearances). In 1098 plate appearances in the majors, Mejia owns a tepid .239/.284/.394 slash between three organizations (Cleveland, San Diego, Tampa Bay). The switch-hitter has been twice traded in the past, going from Cleveland to San Diego in 2018’s Brad Hand trade and from San Diego to Tampa Bay in 2020’s Blake Snell trade.
Mejia’s first season with the Rays showed some promise. He hit .260/.322/.416 with six homers and a hefty 22 doubles in just 299 trips to the plate. Things have gone south since that encouraging Rays debut, however, as his bat has faded while his defensive grades have dropped off precipitously. Mejia has long graded as a below-average framer, and in 2023 he threw out just four of 42 runners attempting to steal against him. Statcast also ranks him as one of the least-effective catchers in the game when it comes to blocking pitches in the dirt.
Those shortcomings notwithstanding, Mejia is a switch-hitter with an excellent offensive track record in the upper minors, and the Rays are thinner at catcher than the majority of teams in the sport. Pinto, Jackson and 34-year-old non-roster invitee Rob Brantly are the only catchers in the organization with MLB experience. Brantly has 456 big league plate appearances across parts of eight seasons. Neither Pinto nor Jackson has recorded even 200 MLB plate appearances.
Improvements To Our MLB Contract Tracker
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Giants’ Tristan Beck Diagnosed With Aneurysm In Upper Arm
Feb. 29: The Giants announced this morning that Beck has been diagnosed with an aneurysm in his upper arm. He’s currently weighing his treatment options. The team will likely have more information in the coming days.
There’s no firm timetable on how long Beck might be sidelined, but manager Bob Melvin told reporters that he won’t be on the Opening Day roster (X link via Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle). The Giants appear to be anticipating a fairly lengthy absence, though Melvin did not rule out the possibility that Beck could pitch for them at some point this season.
Feb. 27: Giants right-hander Tristan Beck has left the team’s spring complex and is traveling back to San Francisco to undergo testing after experiencing discomfort in his right hand, the team announced to reporters (X link via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). The team will provide further updates in the coming days.
Beck, 27, becomes the second Giants starter to incur an injury of some sort in camp. Fellow righty Keaton Winn has been slowed by a nerve issue in his pitching elbow. He resumed throwing Sunday but is at least a week behind the rest of the group. That’s good news, but early injury troubles for the Giants’ presumptive fourth and fifth starters is nevertheless unsettling — particularly given the patchwork nature of the starting staff behind ace Logan Webb.
The Giants are relying on Winn, Beck, top prospect Kyle Harrison and reliever-turned-starter Jordan Hicks to shoulder the bulk of the workload in the rotation. In terms of proven big league starters, it’s among the thinnest rotations in the game. Veterans Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray will eventually join that group, but both will very likely open the season on the injured list. Ray will be sidelined into the season’s second half as he recovers from last May’s Tommy John surgery. Cobb is on the mend from October hip surgery. A precise return date isn’t clear, but Pavlovic suggested a couple weeks back that Cobb was hoping to be cleared to face hitters by the end of spring training. That trajectory would likely sideline him into May, at the very least.
Beck came to the Giants by way of the 2019 trade that shipped former closer Mark Melancon to Atlanta. The former fourth-round pick made his MLB debut in 2023, pitching 85 innings of 3.92 ERA ball with a below-average 19.2% strikeout rate but a strong 5.9% walk rate. Most of that work came as a multi-inning reliever, however. Beck appeared in 33 games for San Francisco but made just three starts. He completed five innings only three times all season — twice in long relief and once in a start that marked his final appearance of the year.
Another injury scare for a Giants starter will only further spark speculation about the possibility of the Giants adding to the rotation. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has downplayed the potential for any notable acquisitions following the team’s signing of Jorge Soler, but the Giants remain one of the most obvious fits for high-profile free agents like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery — both in terms of actual roster need and from a payroll vantage point. The team’s projected $164MM Opening Day payroll (via Roster Resource) is more than $36MM south of the franchise-record $200.5MM mark set back in 2018, and the Giants are also about $24MM shy of the luxury-tax threshold.
If the Giants are strictly averse to shelling out the requisite years and dollars needed to bring in Snell or Montgomery, there are still alternatives on the free agent market. Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger remain unsigned, as do rebound candidates like Eric Lauer, Jake Odorizzi and Noah Syndergaard (to name a few).
The Opener: Skenes, Holliday, Muncy, Stanek
With the final day of February upon us, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Skenes vs. Holliday:
Prospect lovers won’t want to miss today’s game between the Pirates and Orioles, where the first-overall picks of the past two seasons are set to clash. Right-hander Paul Skenes, the No. 1 pick of the 2023 draft and a consensus top-10 prospect in the game, is poised to face shortstop Jackson Holliday, the top pick of the 2022 draft and the consensus top prospect in the entire sport. Fans interested in seeing the matchup won’t have to wait very long, as Holliday told reporters this morning (including MLB.com’s Jake Rill) that he’s set to open the top of the first inning today as Baltimore’s lead off hitter, leaving him to be the very first batter Skenes faces today. If that matchup isn’t enticing enough for you, Skenes will be taking the mound opposite newly-minted Orioles ace Corbin Burnes. First pitch is scheduled for 12:05pm CT this afternoon.
2. Muncy to undergo testing:
Dodgers infielder Max Muncy was struck in the hand by a pitch from Rangers left-hander Cody Bradford during yesterday’s game, with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale relaying that the slugger has been diagnosed with a contusion, according to manager Dave Roberts. The Dodgers’ skipper added that Muncy is set to undergo “precautionary” x-rays today. A mainstay of the L.A. lineup since he broke out with the club during the 2018 season, Muncy has slashed .230/.356/.486 in 751 games while clubbing 175 homers in a Dodgers uniform. That includes last year’s .212/.333/.475 slash line, which was good for a wRC+ of 118. Should Muncy miss time due to the injury, the club would likely be left to turn to youngster Miguel Vargas at the hot corner to open the season.
3. Where will Stanek land?
While most discussion of the free agent market has been focused on the “Boras Four” in recent weeks, right-hander Ryne Stanek stands out as the clear best reliever remaining on the open market. While his 4.09 ERA and 4.60 FIP last year were both rather pedestrian, he’s just one season removed from dominating to a 1.15 ERA and 3.05 FIP in 54 2/3 innings of work and sports a strong 27.8% strikeout rate for his career. Those numbers would make him at least a solid middle reliever for any bullpen in the majors. The righty has been connected to the Cubs, Red Sox, and Mets so far this winter, though other clubs are surely also in the mix.
Stanek’s market has been quiet since the calendar flipped to February. Chicago has seemingly backed off its pursuit despite mutual interest, while the Mets added a different high-octane bullpen arm to their mix in Shintaro Fujinami. It’s possible that injuries around the game could spur a club to shore up their bullpen mix with Stanek as Spring Training continues; yesterday alone saw injury scares for the Guardians and Mariners (Trevor Stephan and Matt Brash, respectively). Will the veteran righty’s market begin to pick up as the calendar flips to March?
MLBTR Podcast: How Cody Bellinger’s Deal Affects The Other Free Agents And Why The Offseason Played Out Like This
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Cubs re-signing Cody Bellinger (1:40)
- How did he end up with a short-term deal? (3:35)
- Why would he not take a deal of around six years, $150MM? (5:00)
- Was this about Bellinger’s Statcast metrics? (8:00)
- Would Bellinger have gotten a megadeal in a different winter? (11:15)
- Is there a gulf widening between what superstars can make and what mid-market players can make? (15:55)
- How does the Bellinger deal affect expectations for the other Boras guys? (19:35)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- We have some brand-name starting pitchers who will be signing contracts after Spring Training games have begun. Historically, how have previous late signings fared after starting their seasons so late? (27:00)
- Does the Aaron Nola deal look terrible in hindsight? In my opinion, he’s not as good as Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery and Nola got more than every pitcher except for the Dodgers’ guys. Do the Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodríguez deals look smarter than Nola’s too? (30:30)
- What is the feeling around Juan Soto and where he might be in 2025? I feel like he’s gonna stick with the Yankees but everyone seems to think it’s a one-year location for him. (34:10)
Check out our past episodes!
- Finding Fits For The “Boras Four,” Which Teams Could Still Spend? And Rob Manfred In His Last Term – listen here
- Jorge Soler, Veteran Catcher Signings and the Padres’ Payroll Crunch – listen here
- The Sale of the Orioles, Corbin Burnes Traded and Bobby Witt Jr. Extended – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
The Cubs’ Third Base Possibilities
Few teams have been linked more prominently to Matt Chapman this offseason than the Cubs. Chicago’s recent move to re-sign Cody Bellinger on an $80MM guarantee makes that decidedly less likely. Chapman remains on the open market but the Bellinger deal pushed the Cubs to the edge of the luxury tax threshold.
There aren’t many other external options. Maybe there’s a trickle-down effect once Chapman does sign — the Giants may be the favorite for his services and could market J.D. Davis if they landed him — but the Cubs seem likelier to stick with their in-house candidates. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested at the Bellinger press conference that Chicago feels good about the roster as it stands, although he said the front office would consider opportunities that might present themselves.
Let’s run through the current options to take the hot corner:
While Madrigal doesn’t look the part of a third baseman, he narrowly led the team in playing time there last season. Previously a career-long second baseman, Madrigal handled himself well defensively. Statcast credited him with 10 runs above average in only 560 1/3 innings. The range he’d shown in the middle infield remained on display. Before he moved across the diamond, there was concern about his arm strength. That wasn’t much of an issue. Madrigal doesn’t have a great arm, but it’s not poor enough to prevent him from making most plays.
The bigger question is whether he hits enough to profile as a regular anywhere on the diamond. Madrigal’s very slight frame leads to minimal power projection. He has preternatural bat-to-ball skills but needs to hit a lot of singles to compensate for the lack of power and very low walk rates. Last season’s .263/.311/.352 batting line in 294 plate appearances more closely resembled utility production.
Wisdom has the polar opposite profile from Madrigal. He has massive raw power and has topped 20 homers in three straight seasons. He connected on 23 longballs in only 302 plate appearances a year ago. While Madrigal has perhaps the best pure contact ability of anyone in the majors, Wisdom swings and misses as much as any regular. He fanned in nearly 37% of his plate appearances last season, a rate he has matched over three-plus years in Chicago.
The end result was a .205/.289/.500 slash. Chicago valued his power production enough to keep him around on a $2.725MM arbitration contract. That’s not an exorbitant cost for a right-handed bench bat, a role that probably suits Wisdom better than playing regularly at third base. He has an above-average arm but limited range, leading to subpar defensive grades in each of the last two years.
Morel, 24, might have the best physical tools for the job. He has big power, blasting 26 homers in 107 games a year ago. Morel has hit 42 longballs over his first 854 MLB plate appearances. That comes with a lot of strikeouts, albeit not quite at Wisdom levels. He punched out 31% of the time last season, hitting .247/.313/.508 in 429 trips.
Even with a lot of whiffs, Morel is a valuable hitter. He has had a much harder time on the other side of the ball. Despite being a good athlete with top-of-the-scale arm strength, Morel has rated poorly in the outfield and in a very limited sample of third base work. Hoyer suggested early in the offseason the Cubs felt he’s best suited at second base, but Nico Hoerner has that position secure in Chicago.
That makes third base the logical choice. Manager Craig Counsell told reporters that they’ll play Morel primarily at the hot corner this spring (link via Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). It’d be a major boost for the Cubs if he’s capable of handling the position. If he doesn’t show the necessary hands or instincts to play there regularly, they’d be left looking for ways to shoehorn his bat into the lineup.
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The job is likely to fall to someone from that trio early on, with Madrigal and Morel standing as the likeliest options. Miles Mastrobuoni picked up 24 starts there last season. He remains on the 40-man roster but projects for a depth role after hitting .241/.308/.301 through 145 plate appearances.
Trade acquisition Michael Busch logged a bit of third base action as the Dodgers experimented with ways to get him into the lineup. He’s not a particularly good defender anywhere, the biggest reason he never forced his way into everyday reps in Los Angeles. The Cubs are planning to give him more regular run at first base, although he could theoretically move across the diamond from time to time if Chicago moved Bellinger to first base to plug Pete Crow-Armstrong into center field.
The Cubs entered the 2023 season with a similar group as they have now. They addressed the position at the deadline with the Jeimer Candelario trade. That could be the path again — Davis and Brandon Drury are among the players who could move this summer — but there’s also a chance that last year’s first-round pick forces his way to Wrigley Field midseason.
Matt Shaw is already viewed as one of the sport’s most promising minor league hitters. The Maryland product shredded pro pitching at a .357/.400/.618 clip after the draft. He only has 15 games of Double-A experience, so he won’t be an option on Opening Day. As an advanced college bat, he could get to the big leagues by the end of his first full professional season. Shaw was a middle infielder with the Terps, but third base is the clearest path to an MLB debut in 2024.