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Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks overcame a midseason slump to play their way into the National League’s final playoff spot. They followed up an 84-78 regular season showing with a surprising run. That ended in disappointing fashion, as the Snakes dropped a five-game World Series to the Rangers. They’re now on to the offseason as they take their first steps in trying to get back to the Fall Classic.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Corbin Carroll, LF: $105MM through 2030 (including buyout of ’31 club option)
  • Ketel Marte, 2B: $62MM through 2027 (including buyout of ’28 club option)
  • Merrill Kelly, RHP: $9MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 club option)
  • Miguel Castro, RHP: $5MM through 2024*
  • Scott McGough, RHP: $3.75MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 mutual option)
  • Jace Peterson, 3B: $3MM through 2024 (A’s paying down $2MM of Peterson’s $5MM salary)

* Castro’s vesting option is conditional on passing end-of-season physical

Option Decisions

  • Team and RHP Mark Melancon hold $5MM mutual option ($2MM buyout)

Additional Financial Commitments

2024 financial commitments: $51.3MM
Total future commitments: $204.05MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Adams, Lewis, Mantiply

Free Agents

Arizona faces a couple immediate questions with the turnaround to the offseason. They’ll make the easy decision to buy out their end of a $5MM mutual option on Mark Melancon, who missed the entire season after a Spring Training shoulder strain. He’ll collect a $2MM buyout to conclude a free agent deal that didn’t work out.

There’s another question the front office will need to decide as it sets its offseason agenda: whether they’ll try to retain Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on a multi-year contract. The righty-hitting left fielder had a strong season in the desert. The third piece in the Daulton Varsho/Gabriel Moreno trade, Gurriel turned in a .261/.309/.463 batting line with a career-high 24 home runs over 592 plate appearances. He paired that with an elite +14 Defensive Runs Saved in 778 left field innings, although Statcast’s defensive metric pegged him closer to league average.

Baseball Reference pegged his contributions around three wins above replacement, while he typically falls in the 2-3 WAR range. He’s a solid everyday left fielder and could find a three- or four-year deal. The D-Backs opened the 2023 campaign with a player payroll around $116MM — the #21 figure in the majors, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. If they don’t want to meet Gurriel’s asking price, they’ll likely look for external corner outfield help. Deadline acquisition Tommy Pham is also headed to free agency.

Arizona likely has two outfield spots secured. Corbin Carroll turned in a Rookie of the Year season in the first year of his eight-year extension. He’s a true franchise building block. Alek Thomas had a mediocre regular season offensively, reaching base at a meager .273 clip. He hit well in October and brings plus center field defense (error in last night’s game notwithstanding) and baserunning to the table. Between his secondary skills and strong prospect reputation, he’ll probably get the first look in center field.

The rest of the outfield is uncertain. Jake McCarthy had a disappointing follow-up to his surprisingly strong rookie year. While Dominic Fletcher hit well in a limited sample, he’s a 26-year-old with 28 major league games under his belt. Neither former 7th overall pick Pavin Smith nor 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis made much of an impact. They could each be let go. Jorge Barrosa is on the 40-man roster but has yet to make his MLB debut.

Arizona isn’t going to be in the Cody Bellinger mix. Any other free agent outfielder could fit within their payroll window. Including projected salaries for their group of arbitration-eligible players, the Snakes have around $86MM in commitments for next year. That leaves around $30MM before reaching this past season’s Opening Day mark. They’re around $50MM shy of the franchise’s approximate $131MM record. While they’re six years removed from that level, it stands to reason they could push near or past those heights after hosting seven playoff games and with a goal of backing up this year’s success.

Aside from Bellinger, the top free agent outfielder is Teoscar Hernández. He could require draft pick forfeiture as a potential qualifying offer recipient and might land a four-year deal. Gurriel, Jorge Soler and KBO star Jung Hoo Lee are among the next tier down. On the trade front, players like Alex Verdugo (projected $9.2MM salary), Max Kepler ($10MM) and Anthony Santander (projected at $12.7MM) may be available as rental options.

Arizona has a strong infield in place. Christian Walker is an underrated contributor at first base. A $12.7MM projection for his final year of arbitration isn’t insignificant, but there’s enough payroll room that the D-Backs can accommodate it to retain a Gold Glove defender with 35-homer potential. Ketel Marte had another great season at second base.

The left side of the infield is a little less settled, though it’s not for lack of options. Arizona released longtime shortstop Nick Ahmed in September, a move made in tandem with the promotion of top prospect Jordan Lawlar. The latter didn’t get much action in the postseason, with Arizona relying on a collection of Geraldo Perdomo, Emmanuel Rivera and Evan Longoria between shortstop and third base.

Perdomo’s offense fell off in the second half, but he had an All-Star first couple months and a strong postseason. Neither Rivera nor Jace Peterson offer much offensively. Longoria is a free agent, while Lawlar only has 32 games above Double-A.

There’s enough uncertainty at third base that the front office could add a veteran. Perhaps that’s a reunion with Longoria should he continue playing. Justin Turner is likely to decline a player option with the Red Sox. While he’s not an everyday third baseman at this stage of his career, he could see some action there while logging the bulk of the designated hitter reps.

If Lawlar takes the third base job (or plays shortstop, pushing Perdomo to the hot corner), a Longoria or Turner type could move fully to DH. Old friend J.D. Martinez obviously isn’t an option at third base, but he’s a possibility if the Snakes are content to bring in a DH-only bat to replace the offense with Gurriel, Longoria and Pham hitting free agency.

Arizona has one of the best young catchers in the game with Moreno under club control through 2028. Bringing in a low-cost backup who pushes José Herrera down the depth chart is a possibility. Tucker Barnhart, Martín Maldonado and Eric Haase are free agents.

While there are a few questions on the position player side, the biggest issue for the front office is filling the back of the rotation. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly make for a strong top two. Brandon Pfaadt had a tough regular season as a rookie before an impressive run in the playoffs. Neither Ryne Nelson nor Tommy Henry (the latter of whom missed the second half with an elbow injury) has established himself as more than a depth starter. Slade Cecconi has made only four MLB starts.

Adding one or two pitchers to fill out the rotation should be the top priority for GM Mike Hazen and his staff. The D-Backs aren’t likely to meet a potential $200MM+ asking price on Blake Snell or NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. There’s enough spending room they could be a factor on anyone else in the class, although a run at Aaron Nola or Jordan Montgomery would require easily their biggest investment since their surprising $206.5MM strike for Zack Greinke eight years ago.

Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez could be available for similar outlays to the $85MM guarantee the Snakes awarded Madison Bumgarner in 2019. Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Mike Clevinger and Michael Lorenzen (a reported deadline target of Arizona’s this past summer) are among the middle tier veterans. Lucas Giolito is a volatile option after a rough second half, while Frankie Montas and Luis Severino are pure rebound candidates.

On the trade front, Shane Bieber, Nick Pivetta and Adrian Houser could be on the move as they’re a year from free agency. Cal Quantrill, José Urquidy (with whom pitching coach Brent Strom is familiar from his time with the Astros) and Spencer Turnbull are multi-year trade possibilities.

In recent offseasons, the bullpen has been a focus for Arizona. While that might not be as strong a priority after the deadline acquisition of Paul Sewald, there’s still room to deepen the setup corps. Kevin Ginkel has emerged as a quality eighth inning arm. Andrew Saalfrank flashed impressive stuff as a rookie. Miguel Castro, Scott McGough and Kyle Nelson have middle relief spots but are coming off middling seasons. That’s also true of 2022 All-Star Joe Mantiply, who dropped behind Saalfrank as the top lefty option in the playoffs.

It’s hard to envision Arizona making a serious push for Josh Hader given their needs on the rotation front. Reynaldo López and Jordan Hicks are free agent setup types who’ll command multi-year deals. If the D-Backs want to bring in a left-hander, Matt Moore and Wandy Peralta are among the options.

Aside from supplementary acquisitions, the D-Backs could devote some of their long-term payroll room to extension negotiations. Arizona holds two more seasons of arbitration control on Gallen, who is on track to hit free agency before his age-30 campaign. He’d surely beat the five years and $64.5MM that Kyle Freeland received in the same service class. Logan Webb landed a five-year, $90MM guarantee in an extension with the Giants that went into effect beginning in his 4-5 service year, setting a potential benchmark for Gallen’s camp.

Moreno is the other top extension possibility. He has more MLB success than Keibert Ruiz did when he inked an eight-year, $50MM deal with the Nationals in the same service bracket. It’s possible a guarantee in that range that only buys out two or three free agent years — as opposed to the potential five seasons covered by the Ruiz extension — is mutually agreeable.

While it remains to be seen if the Snakes can get a long-term deal done with any of their players, one extension seems quite likely to be hammered out. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote last month the D-Backs were likely to award an extension to manager Torey Lovullo. Arizona already signed Hazen through 2028. A similar term for the seventh-year skipper — who is currently under contract through next season — could be on the docket.

This year didn’t conclude with the championship that everyone in the Chase Field offices was seeking. Their relatively surprising playoff performance reinforced that they’ve moved into a win-now window. They’ll face challenges from their bigger-spending competitors in the NL West. The D-Backs are no longer upstarts. Beginning today, they set out to prove they have staying power.

Note: The original version of this post listed Lourdes Gurriel as a qualifying offer candidate. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that Gurriel is ineligible to receive the QO under the terms of his contract.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Diamondbacks-specific chat on 11-2-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Braves Sign Joe Jiménez To Three-Year Deal

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The Braves announced today that they have signed right-hander Joe Jiménez to a three-year, $26MM deal. The righty was about to become a free agent but will stick with Atlanta instead. The client of ISE Baseball will make $8MM in 2024 and then $9MM in each of the two subsequent seasons.

Jiménez, 29 in January, spent his entire career with the Tigers until he was traded to Atlanta coming into the 2023 season. He ended up having a strong campaign, making 59 appearances with an earned run average of 3.04. He struck out 30.7% of batters faced while issuing walks at just a 5.9% clip. He wasn’t used in the most high-leverage spots, earning just 13 holds and no saves on the year. He also appeared in just one of Atlanta’s postseason contests, but the results for the year were impressive nonetheless.

The decision makers in Atlanta are clearly enamored with Jiménez, having parted with prospects Justyn-Henry Malloy and Jake Higginbotham in order to get him from Detroit last offseason. That was on the heels of a strong 2022 season wherein he made 62 appearances with a 3.49 ERA, 33.3% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate. When combined with his one season in Atlanta, he has a 3.27 ERA over 121 appearances in the past two years, striking out 32% of opponents in the process. He’s now been able to parlay that two-year run of strong results into a solid three-year deal.

The contract is generally in line with those for other non-closer relievers in recent years. Rafael Montero got three years and $34.5MM from the Astros, Taylor Rogers three years and $33MM from the Giants, while Kendall Graveman got three years and $24MM from the White Sox.

Atlanta was set to lose a decent chunk of its bullpen to free agency, with Jiménez, Pierce Johnson and Jesse Chavez slated to hit the open market this winter. Collin McHugh, Brad Hand and Kirby Yates could join them depending on how their contract options play out. But Johnson and the club reached a two-year extension last week and now Jiménez is staying as well, allowing them to stick with incumbents like Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter and Tyler Matzek.

For other clubs who may have been in the market for a reliever like Jiménez, they will now have one less option available to them on the open market. Josh Hader is clearly the top relief arm available, but the tier below him also has intriguing options such as Jordan Hicks, Reynaldo López and Robert Stephenson. It’s possible Chad Green could join them, depending on how his convoluted contract plays out in the coming days, while Yuki Matsui is looking to make the move from Japan.

Roster Resource currently pegs Atlanta’s 2024 payroll at $174MM with a competitive balance tax number of $205MM. This deal will add $8MM to the payroll and $8.67MM to the CBT number, since the latter is based on the average annual value of the entire contract. They have until Monday to decide on options for players like Charlie Morton, Eddie Rosario, McHugh, Hand and Yates. Triggering any of those would put some extra money onto the books but turning them down will leave them with extra items on the winter to-do list. The base threshold for the luxury tax will be $237MM in 2024.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

The Opener: Rangers, Diamondbacks, Offseason

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With the World Series now over, here are three things we’re keeping an eye on around baseball today…

1. Rangers win it all:

The Rangers finally have their first World Series title, defeating the Diamondbacks last night. Now it’s time to celebrate, with a parade already planned for Friday. After that, the attention will turn to the offseason. After being extremely aggressive in recent years, will they take their foot off the gas or continue pressing forward?

2. Diamondbacks Outlook and chat:

It was a great season for the Diamondbacks, who made it all the way to the final showdown on the heels of three straight losing campaigns. How can they build on this year and reload for 2024? MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series will head to Arizona later today, with a chat to follow at 2:00 pm Central. Click here to ask a question in advance.

3. The offseason begins:

With the 2023 season now in the can, it’s time for the 2023-24 offseason! There will be plenty of rumors, signings and trades, with much attention focused on the most unique free agent of all time. Eligible players can become free agents today but won’t be able to sign with a new club for five days. They can sign with their 2023 club, however, as Joe Jiménez has already done. There’s also a five-day window for decisions on contract options, opt-outs and qualifying offers. Keep checking MLBTR for all the latest!

Rangers Win World Series

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With a 5-0 victory over the Diamondbacks on Wednesday night, the Rangers claimed their first World Series championship in franchise history. They took the series four games to one, splitting the first two contests at Globe Life Field in Texas before winning all three at Chase Field in Arizona.

The franchise was established in 1961 as the Washington Senators, before moving to Arlington in 1972. The Rangers won back-to-back AL pennants in 2010 and ’11 but lost in the World Series both years. They held the second-longest championship drought in baseball, a title that now falls to the Brewers, who have not won a World Series in their 55-year history. The Guardians, having last won a World Series in 1948, still hold the longest championship drought in the game at 75 years and counting.

Including Milwaukee, there are now just five franchises that have yet to win a World Series: the Brewers, Padres, Mariners, Rockies, and Rays.

The Rangers took fate into their own hands over the past two seasons, signing stars like Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jacob deGrom, and Nathan Eovaldi to large contracts to accelerate their competitive window. They burst out of the gate in 2023, going 17-11 (.607) in April and 52-39 (.571) in the first half. General Manager Chris Young remained aggressive at the trade deadline, adding Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery to replenish a depleted rotation. The moves paid off, and the Rangers finished 90-72 with a +165 run differential. Although they lost the division crown on a tiebreaker, they swept their way to the ALCS and dethroned the Astros in a thrilling seven-game series. Just two years removed from a 102-loss season, the Rangers are World Series champions.

Seager was named World Series MVP for his dominant offensive performance against Arizona. In five games, he smacked three home runs, driving in six. The star shortstop led all players in the World Series in Win Probability Added (WPA), scoring a run in all four Texas victories. Overall, he hit .318 with a 1.133 OPS in the postseason. It is his second time winning World Series MVP honors, after previously taking home the award in 2020 with the Dodgers.

Additional hitters from the championship team who merit special recognition for their postseason performance include Adolis García and Evan Carter. On the pitching side, Montgomery and Eovaldi offered particularly praiseworthy performances, as did Josh Sborz and José Leclerc. García led the team with eight home runs and a whopping 22 RBI throughout the playoffs, taking home ALCS MVP honors. Unfortunately, his postseason ended early after an oblique strain in Game 3. Carter, the rookie phenom, was an integral part of the team’s offense despite making his MLB debut this past September. He is only 21 years old.

Eovaldi made six starts across the four series, going 5-0 with a 2.95 ERA. Montgomery was similarly dominant, appearing in six games (five starts) and posting a 2.90 ERA of his own. Meanwhile, Leclerc and Sborz were a lethal combination out of the bullpen. Leclerc, the longest-tenured player on the roster, was reliable as ever, pitching in 13 contests and putting up a 3.29 ERA. Sborz, for his part, showed up seemingly out of nowhere, tossing 12 innings and giving up just one run, good for a 0.75 ERA. Over the past three years with Texas, he has a 4.98 ERA. However, his underlying numbers have long suggested he is better than his ERA, and with his performance this postseason, he proved that to be true.

Manager Bruce Bochy collects his fourth World Series title, having won with the Giants in 2010, 2012, and 2014. Funnily enough, his Giants beat the Rangers to win it all in 2010. The long-time manager came out of retirement to join the Rangers in 2023, a surprising move at the time, but clearly a shrewd decision.

With the World Series wrapped up, it’s time for the offseason to officially begin. Teams can start making trades on Thursday, and they will be able to sign free agents on Monday. That’s also the deadline for teams to make option decisions, to issue qualifying offers, and to add players from the 60-day injured list back to the 40-man roster. The non-tender deadline is November 17.

Giants Outright Mark Mathias

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The Giants have sent Mark Mathias outright to Triple-A, according to his player page on MLB.com. Having been outrighted previously in his career, he is eligible to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, and at this point in the year, it’s hard to see why he wouldn’t do so. There was no previous announcement that Mathias had been designated for assignment or placed on outright waivers. He was on the 60-day injured list for the final six weeks of the season, so the move doesn’t free up a 40-man roster spot for San Francisco.

The 29-year-old spent the first three months of the year with the Pirates, bouncing back and forth between the majors and Triple-A. He was designated for assignment in late June and scooped up by the Mariners in early July, who stashed him at Triple-A for a month before trading him to the Giants at the deadline, along with AJ Pollock. Mathias played just five games for San Francisco, after which the utility player landed on the IL with a right shoulder strain. He would not play for the remainder of the season.

Overall, Mathias hit .226 with a .591 OPS in 27 games with the Pirates and Giants. In other words, he was unable to rediscover the success from his brief stint with the Rangers last season, when he hit five home runs in 24 games down the stretch, driving in 16 and posting an impressive 159 wRC+. Nevertheless, his strong performance at Triple-A for a second consecutive season (.813 OPS in 51 games) should earn him a minor league contract with a new club this winter, barring another setback with his shoulder.

Coaching Notes: Mallee, Rays, Giants, Cora

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The Cubs are promoting John Mallee back to the big league staff, as reported by Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. It’s currently unclear what role the long-time coach will serve. He was the team’s hitting coach from 2015-17, but that job is currently held down by Dustin Kelly, who helped several players thrive in his first year with the big league squad. 

According to Sharma and Mooney, the Cubs will “incorporate Mallee’s experience and expertise” in a new role, rather than replace anyone currently on the coaching staff. He was the hitting coach at Triple-A Iowa in 2023, and he earned “rave reviews” for his work at the minor league level. Evidently, the Cubs have decided he can have a greater impact with the MLB club, even in a less defined role.

In other coaching news from around the league…

  • In addition to hiring a new first base coach, the Rays could look to hire a couple of additional coaches to replace Jonathan Erlichman, the former process and analytics coach, and Dan DeMent, the former assistant hitting coach (per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Erlichman has taken on a new role with the team, while DeMent has parted ways with the organization after 13 years as a minor league coach and two with the big league club. The Rays have another assistant hitting coach, Brady North, and with Erlichman remaining in the organization, they don’t necessarily need to hire a direct replacement for either Erlichman or DeMent. As Topkin notes, the Rays could look to add a couple of coaches in new roles instead.
  • On Monday, Susan Slusser of the San Franciso Chronicle discussed the Giants’ director of pitching role, which has been vacant since the White Sox hired away Brian Bannister to be their senior pitching advisor. She suggests Bryan Price, a long-time pitching coach and former Reds manager, to fill the role. Price is currently employed as a senior advisor to the coaching staff in San Diego, but it’s not out of the question he could come over to San Francisco alongside Bob Melvin, Matt Williams, and Ryan Christenson. Price spent 14 years as a pitching coach for the Mariners, Diamondbacks, Reds, and Phillies. He announced his retirement as a pitching coach after the 2020 season, but a director of pitching job could represent an intriguing new opportunity for the veteran coach.
  • Joey Cora, the Mets’ third base coach in 2022 and ’23, has drawn interest for several coaching positions around the league, per Andy Martino of SNY. Cora, the elder brother of Red Sox manager Alex Cora, has been coaching since 2004. His contract with the Mets expired at the end of October. In further Mets news, Martino notes that first base coach Wayne Kirby’s contract has also expired. Evidently, the team saw no reason to retain all of their coaches without a new manager in place.

Latest On Astros’ Managerial Search

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After four seasons under veteran manager Dusty Baker, in which the Astros won three division titles, two AL pennants, and one World Series, the team is on the hunt for a new skipper. Baker, who had been managing on and off since 1993, announced his retirement following Houston’s loss in Game 7 of the ALCS. Presumably, the Astros always knew this was a possibility – Baker’s contract was up at the end of the season – but the manager didn’t tell the team his decision until last week. Thus, it comes as little surprise that general manager Dana Brown will take his time searching for a replacement.

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday (including Brian McTaggart of MLB.com), Brown revealed the team has no timeframe to hire a manager. In fact, they have not yet begun to interview candidates. “We’re not going to rush through this,” he explained.

Brown’s comments conflict with a statement owner and chairman Jim Crane made a few days ago, when he said, “We’ll work on [hiring a new manager] quickly… We’ll have a fluid search and work as fast as we can to get somebody in place” (per Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle).

Nevertheless, it makes sense why the Astros aren’t hurrying this decision. Baker, 74, won’t be easy to replace. While his choices didn’t always sit well with more analytically inclined fans, he brought decades of experience to the table. He earned his first managerial gig before most of today’s active managers had even begun their playing careers. Moreover, he is widely respected and beloved around the game for his people skills and unique style of leadership.

As Brown said, “I’m looking for someone with some leadership ability, someone that could run the clubhouse, of course, looking for someone with great feel for players and managing players.” In other words, he’s looking for another Dusty Baker.

A long and drawn-out hiring process isn’t out of character for the Astros, who waited until January last offseason to hire Brown as their new GM. Crane played an unusually influential role in the team’s decision-making over the first two and a half months of the offseason, as did front office adviser Jeff Bagwell. In the same vein, Crane and Bagwell will reportedly have an “immense say” in choosing the next manager of the Astros, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic.

While Brown insisted that he has no timeline, he thinks it’s possible he could set up interviews during the general manager’s meetings, which begin November 7. The team is clearly in the preliminary stages of the hiring process, but they are widely expected to consider bench coach Joe Espada and former Tigers and Angels manager Brad Ausmus. More recently, they were linked to former Brewers manager Craig Counsell, whose contract with Milwaukee officially expired on Tuesday. McTaggart notes that third base coach Omar López could be another contender.

Padres Took Out A $50MM Loan In September To Cover Payroll

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As reported by Evan Drellich, Dennis Lin, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Padres took out a $50MM loan in September to address “short-term cash flow issues” and cover their player payroll, among other expenses. That $50MM figure is particularly interesting, considering a previous report from Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune that the team is hoping to reduce payroll by about $50MM in 2024. 

The Padres ran a top-five payroll in the sport for a second straight season in 2023, yet they failed to make the playoffs, finishing two games back of a Wild Card berth. Evidently, strong ticket sales (only the Dodgers had higher attendance) weren’t enough to convince ownership to double down in hopes of better results next year. The fact that the team needed to take out a sizeable loan – and that they missed out on postseason revenue – might explain why.

Ultimately, however, it’s hard to say whether this news is an indication of trouble for the Padres or simply a standard practice of running a baseball team. The reporters from The Athletic note that MLB teams “commonly” take out lines of credit, and it could be seen as a good sign that the Padres were deemed suitable for such a sizeable loan in the first place. To that point, the lender was reportedly willing to provide as much as $100MM.

Then again, it’s concerning that the team needed such a large sum of money so late in the season; it’s hard not to read into that as a sign of poor financial planning. Indeed, the news of the loan is said to have taken some MLB officials by surprise.

For what it’s worth, it was the league’s head office that prevented the Padres from taking all $100MM they were offered by their lender. That could be a sign that the team is in real financial trouble – the commissioner doesn’t generally allow teams to take on more debt than they can afford – but it could also be a broader indication that other owners simply don’t approve of San Diego running such a high payroll. After all, the Padres took many by surprise with their aggressive spending over the past few years, showing that a so-called “smaller market” team can indeed compete with the financial giants from New York and L.A. As the reporters from The Athletic point out, some owners consider the Padres’ spending to be reckless – and commissioner Rob Manfred has implied he feels the same way.

Nonetheless, several team officials repeated the idea that this loan was nothing more than business as usual, whether speaking on behalf of the team or not. Padres CEO Erik Greupner said in a statement that the team “established a capital plan for 2023” and that they operated “in accordance with that plan.” On a similar note, an anonymous team official told Drellich, Lin, and Rosenthal, “We anticipated we may need [the loan] at some point this year. We’re not in crisis.”

Another anonymous official told The Athletic, “The levels of payroll that we’ve been at have probably reasonably been in excess of what we could have supported, but it was part of the larger plan.”

Still, the Padres’ financial situation is something to monitor going forward. If temporarily spending more than they could afford on player payroll was always part of the team’s master plan, then it remains to be seen how the rest of the plan will play out. This past season certainly didn’t go as expected, and several of the team’s top contributors could become free agents in the coming days. It will be challenging to fill those holes while significantly reducing payroll.

In other words, it’s hard to imagine the on-field product improving next season without suitable replacements for Blake Snell, Josh Hader, and Seth Lugo (pending his opt-out decision) – and even more so if the team trades Juan Soto. Unfortunately, that might be the only way they can reduce payroll by such a large amount. Per roster resource, the team already has an estimated 2024 payroll of $190MM and an estimated luxury tax payroll of $242.9MM. Soto alone is projected to make $33MM in arbitration, per MLBTR’s Matt Swartz.

Orioles Claim Sam Hilliard From Braves

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The Orioles announced today that the club has claimed outfielder Sam Hilliard off waivers from the Braves. In a corresponding move, right-hander Joey Krehbiel has been designated for assignment. Meanwhile, the Braves announced that they’ve assigned infielder Andrew Velazquez and right-hander Ben Heller outright to the minors. Both Velazquez and Heller figure to reach minor league free agency later this month, though Heller has the requisite service time to elect free agency early, should he so choose.

The Braves picked up Hilliard last offseason in a trade with the Rockies, sending right-hander Dylan Spain to Colorado in exchange for the outfielder. Hilliard played for the Rockies in parts of four seasons, from 2019-22. The lefty-batter showed off plus power, but otherwise, his offensive skills were lacking. He played capable defense in all three outfield spots, although his glove was most valuable in left.

In 40 games for Atlanta this past season, his bat was the best it’s been since his rookie campaign, although his numbers were slightly inflated by an unsustainable .389 batting average on balls in play. Still, Hilliard was a serviceable fifth outfielder through the first half of the year, posting a .725 OPS with a perfect 1.000 fielding percentage. Unfortunately, he landed on the IL with a right heel contusion in mid-July, an injury that ultimately ended his season. In 2024, he will look to pick up where he left off with his new team.

The Orioles have no shortage of outfield options on the 40-man roster, including veterans Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins, and Austin Hays, as well as rookies Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad. However, neither Cowser nor Kjerstad has proven himself at the major league level just yet, and it’s possible that one or both could open the 2024 campaign in Triple-A, instead of sitting on the big league bench. Alternatively, the Orioles could be planning to trade from a position of strength, perhaps to acquire more pitching this winter. That would make room for a backup outfielder like Hilliard on the roster, although he will still have to compete with Ryan McKenna, Terrin Vavra, and Kyle Stowers for playing time.

Krehbiel, 30, finally surpassed rookie limitations in 2022 after 11 years of professional baseball. The righty was successful as a low-leverage reliever for the Orioles, pitching 57 2/3 innings with a 3.90 ERA. However, he struggled in higher-leverage spots and posted large platoon splits, struggling to retire left-handed batters. He spent most of the 2023 campaign at Triple-A, unable to earn a spot in Baltimore’s talented bullpen. Should Krehbiel clear waivers, he will be eligible to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency.

The Braves claimed Velazquez off waivers from the Angels in September to serve as middle infield depth, although he never saw time with the big league club. The 29-year-old shortstop will be out of options in 2024, so it’s not too surprising that Atlanta decided to clear him from the 40-man roster. In 54 games for the Angels this year, he hit .173 with a 52 wRC+ and -0.1 FanGraphs WAR.

Heller came over to the Braves in a midseason trade with the Rays, and Atlanta gave him his first chance to pitch in a big league game since 2020. The righty was a capable low-leverage reliever over the final months of the season, pitching to a 3.86 ERA in 19 appearances. However, he, too, will be out of minor league options next year. Both Heller and Velazquez had been non-tender candidates ahead of their first years of arbitration eligibility.

Mets Interview Carlos Mendoza, Andy Green In Managerial Search

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The Mets have interviewed Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza for their managerial vacancy, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. SNY’s Andy Martino indicates that Mendoza is actually in the midst of a second-round interview today after interviewing for the first time last week and receiving a callback. Sherman also reports that the club has interviewed Cubs bench coach Andy Green, though it’s unclear if that’s a first or second interview.

Mendoza, 43, spent 13 seasons as a minor league player before joining the Yankees’ minor league coaching staff in 2009. He joined the big league coaching staff as an infield coach in 2017 before being promoted to bench coach following the 2019 season. Green, on the other hand, participated in parts of four big league seasons during his playing career, including the 2009 season as a member of the Mets. Since retiring, Green served briefly as third base coach of the Diamondbacks before being hired to manage the Padres prior to the 2016 season. Green managed in San Diego for four seasons before joining the Cubs’ coaching staff as bench coach prior to the 2020 campaign.

The pair have drawn interest from other clubs for managerial vacancies, as well. After drawing occasional managerial interest in recent years, Mendoza was among the likeliest candidates to take over for Gabe Kapler as manager of the Giants prior to the club securing permission to interview Bob Melvin. In addition, both coaches have been interviewed by the Guardians. If hired in Cleveland, either coach would step into the shoes of longtime manager Terry Francona following his recent retirement.

Should Mendoza depart the Bronx for another club this offseason, Martino notes that the Yankees could look to promote third base coach Luis Rojas, himself a former Mets manager, to the position. Though Rojas’s contract with the Yankees is up this offseason, Martino makes clear the the club has interest in retaining him, either as bench coach or in his current role as third base coach. It’s not yet clear what direction the Cubs could go in if they wind up needing to replace Green. Chicago already lost a key member of the club’s staff this offseason when Craig Breslow departed the Cubs’ front office to take the vacant GM role in Boston.

That the Mets are moving on to a second interview with Mendoza suggests that the club’s interest in his services next year is strong, though Sherman still refers to Brewers manager Craig Counsell as the “favorite” for the Mets job. Of course, Counsell has plenty of options beyond New York that could complicate the club’s pursuit of his services; Counsell has received interest from the Astros, the Brewers hope to retain him in Milwaukee on a new contract, and he’s already interviewed with the Guardians. Curiously, while MLB Network’s Jon Morosi has indicated that Counsell and the Mets have discussed the club’s managerial vacancy, Martino makes clear that Counsell has not had a formal interview with Mets brass to this point.

With the Mets apparently advancing to a second round of interviews for other candidates before sitting down with Counsell for a first interview it’s possible, speculatively speaking, that the club hopes to move through the interview process with other candidates so that they can act quickly upon Counsell’s decision regarding where he will manage in 2024. If that’s the case, it’s unclear what other candidates could be in the mix beyond Mendoza and Green, as details regarding the managerial search in New York have been few and far between this offseason. While Rangers associate manager Will Venable reportedly declined to interview for the position last month, Mendoza, Green, and Counsell are the only publicly known candidates for the position at this point.

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