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Cubs, Eric Stout Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Cubs have agreed to terms on a minor league contract with reliever Eric Stout, MLBTR has learned. He’ll receive an invitation to big league Spring Training.

It’s the second straight offseason in which the Chicago-area native has landed with the Cubs on a non-roster deal. He spent the first couple months of this past season in Triple-A Iowa, working to a 3.94 ERA in 29 2/3 innings to earn a big league call in mid-June. That marked his first MLB look since a three-game stint with the 2018 Royals, which had been his only work at that level before this year.

Stout, 29, pitched twice for the Cubs, allowing two runs in 3 2/3 innings. He was designated for assignment within a few days, but his quality Triple-A work was enough to catch the attention of the Pirates. Pittsburgh sent cash to their division rivals to bring him in, and Stout spent the remainder of the season bouncing on and off the active roster. The southpaw worked 18 2/3 MLB innings for the Bucs, allowing 13 runs (12 earned). His 20% strikeout rate was a hair below average, while he walked an elevated 15.8% of batters faced.

At season’s end, Pittsburgh outrighted Stout off their 40-man roster. He declined a minor league assignment and hit free agency, positioning him to head back to Chicago for a second stint. Stout’s coming off a combined 2.93 ERA showing in 43 innings of Triple-A work with an excellent 33.7% strikeout percentage but an alarming 15.5% walk rate.

Brandon Hughes is the only left-handed reliever who currently occupies a spot on Chicago’s 40-man roster. Adding some depth is thus a reasonable offseason target for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his group, and they’ll start with another look at Stout. They’ll probably at least bring in another arm or two on a non-roster deal, and it stands to reason they could look into candidates for a big league contract like Andrew Chafin or Matt Moore as well. Stout still has a minor league option year remaining, so if he cracks the 40-man roster at any point, the Cubs can move him between Chicago and Iowa without putting him on waivers.

Mets Sign David Robertson

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DECEMBER 9: New York has officially announced they’ve signed Robertson to a one-year contract.

DECEMBER 8: The Mets and reliever David Robertson are in agreement on a one-year, $10MM deal. There are no options or incentives. Robertson, who is self-represented, has already passed his physical.

Robertson, 38 in April, has a lengthy track record of success as a major league reliever. In nine straight seasons from 2010 to 2018, he threw at least 60 innings while never posting an ERA higher than 3.82. Though his control wasn’t always pinpoint perfect, he never had a strikeout rate lower than 26% in any of those seasons. For reference, this year’s league average for relief pitchers was 23.6%.

Unfortunately, that long stretch of reliability came to an abrupt halt in 2019. After signing a two-year, $23MM deal with the Phillies, he only made seven appearances due to injuries, eventually culminating in Tommy John surgery. That kept him out of action for most of that year and all of 2020. He returned to the mound in 2021, starting with that summer’s Olympics and then joining the Rays for 12 appearances after.

That was enough for the Cubs to take a flier on Robertson for 2022, when he truly got back into form. He tossed 40 1/3 innings for the Cubs with a 2.23 ERA and 30.9% strikeout rate. The walks were on the high side at 11.5%, but they didn’t stop him from being tremendously effective, racking up 14 saves in that time. He was flipped to the Phillies prior to the trade deadline and continued in similar fashion. He threw another 23 1/3 innings for the Phils with a 2.70 ERA and 30.3% strikeout rate. The walks became more of an issue, jumping to a 16.2% rate after the deal, but he still added another six saves and three holds. He was able to add another 7 2/3 innings in the postseason despite straining his calf while celebrating a Bryce Harper home run, posting a 1.17 ERA in that time even though he walked 15.2% of batters faced.

Despite his age and control issues, his season was effective enough that MLBTR predicted he would land a two-year, $16MM deal, or $8MM per season. Instead, Robertson has opted for a slightly higher salary but with the chance to return to free agency again a year from now.

The fact that the Mets were the one to pay him is not a huge surprise. For one thing, they have almost an entire bullpen to rebuild this winter. Edwin Díaz, Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez and Trevor May all reached free agency at the end of the 2022 season, leaving the club with plenty of holes to fill. They have since re-signed Díaz, traded for Brooks Raley and made a few smaller moves, with Robertson now added into the mix as well.

Secondly, it’s also not surprising to see the Mets putting money down on a player they like because they’ve been doing a lot of that. The news of this deal and Brandon Nimmo’s re-signing dropped in quick succession, adding to the club’s already huge financial outlay for 2023. Roster Resource currently pegs their payroll for next season at $322MM with a competitive balance tax figure of $335MM. That’s more than $40MM beyond the fourth and highest tier of luxury tax penalization, which is $293MM.

The CBT has escalating penalties for going over the line in successive seasons and the Mets also paid the tax in 2022, making them second-time payors for 2023. They will pay a 30% tax on spending over the first tier, 42% over the second, 75% over the third and 90% over the fourth. That means that they are currently slated to pay a tax of about $67MM, on top of that $322MM payroll. It’s also possible that they’re not done, as Andy Martino of SNY reports that they could still sign Kodai Senga.

For now, the gas pedal is clearly down to the floor for the Mets, as they have spent aggressively in trying to stay competitive for next year. They won 101 games in 2022 but had a huge free agent class that consisted of Nimmo, Díaz, Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker, Chris Bassitt and the aforementioned batch of relievers. deGrom and Walker have signed elsewhere, but the Mets signed Justin Verlander and José Quintana to replace them, in addition to retaining Díaz and Nimmo, with Robertson now added into the mix as well. He will likely be in line for setup duty with Díaz in the closer role, but it’s possible that the Mets still have plenty of more surprises up their sleeves to be revealed between now and Opening Day.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that Robertson and the Mets were connecting on a one-year, $10MM deal. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported that Robertson had already passed his physical and the lack of options or incentives.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rangers Sign Andrew Heaney To Two-Year Deal

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Dec. 9: The Rangers have officially announced the signing. Levi Weaver of The Athletic provides some specifics on the contract. Heaney will make $12MM plus incentives in 2023 followed by $13MM plus incentives in 2024. If he opts out after the first year, he’ll collect a $500K payout.

Dec. 6, 7:42pm: Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports that Heaney will earn $12.5MM in guaranteed money in 2023, with the ability to earn up to $5MM more in performance bonuses.

4:40pm: The Rangers have an agreement with free agent pitcher Andrew Heaney, pending a physical. It will be a two-year, $25MM deal with incentives that could take it up to $37MM. Heaney will be able to opt out of the deal after the first season. Heaney is represented by Icon Sports Management.

Heaney, 32 in June, has long been an enticing hurler due to his incredible ability to rack up strikeouts. Since the start of the 2016 season, his 27.2% strikeout rate is well above average and ranks 21st among all pitchers in the majors in that stretch, minimum 500 innings pitched.

However, despite banking all those Ks, there have also been concerns around Heaney. One is his tendency to get tattooed by the long ball too often. For his career, 16.1% of his fly balls have left the yard, which is certainly on the high side. League wide averages fluctuate in this department as the ball seems to be changing from year to year, but the average in 2022 was 11.4%. Even in the “juiced ball” season of 2019, the rate only got as high as 15.3%, still below Heaney’s career rate. Those home runs are a big reason why he has a career ERA of 4.56 despite all those punchouts. Another knock on Heaney is health, as he’s only once reached 130 innings in a single season. That’s been due to a number of factors, including Tommy John surgery in 2016 and various bouts of elbow inflammation since then.

For 2022, Heaney seemed to take a step forward performance wise, but without completely eliminating those concerning tendencies. The Dodgers signed him to a one-year, $8.5MM deal and then changed his pitch repertoire. His curveball and sinker were eliminated in favor of a new slider to pair with his four-seamer and the occasional changeup. The results were excellent as Heaney struck out an incredible 35.5% of batters faced, well beyond his own track record and second to only Spencer Strider among pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched on the year.

However, injuries were once again a problem, with Heaney making multiple trips to the IL due to shoulder issues throughout the year. In the end, he made 14 starts and two relief appearances, getting to 72 2/3 innings pitched for the whole season, with three more added in the playoffs. The long ball was still present as well, as he allowed 14 homers in that sample, leading to a HR/FB rate of 17.9%. Despite the massive strikeout rate, those home runs bumped his ERA up to 3.10.

Even with those concerns, MLBTR predicted that Heaney would get enough interest to land a three-year, $42MM deal, or $14MM per season. It’s possible that Heaney got a wide variety of creative contracts to address his high upside potential but also the big question marks. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that Heaney had nine different offers before agreeing to this Rangers deal, and recent reporting indicated he had three-year offers and was trying to get a fourth. The exact details of those other offers aren’t known, but Heaney has taken a deal with a solid $25MM guarantee, $12.5MM per year, but the possibility to earn much more.

For one thing, the opt-out after 2023 will give him the chance to return to the open market a year from now. If Heaney finally stays healthy and produces the elite results he’s clearly capable of, he could opt out and land himself a much larger contract at that point. There’s also the incentives in the deal, with the specifics not yet known, but that’s another avenue for Heaney to end up doing quite well for himself on the deal.

For the Rangers, this is the latest in a series of moves that has completely remade their rotation. Just about a month ago, their on-paper starting group consisted of Jon Gray and a bunch question marks. Since then, they’ve re-signed Martín Pérez, acquired Jake Odorizzi from Atlanta, signed arguably the best pitcher on the planet in Jacob deGrom and have now added Heaney into the mix. In a way, the Heaney deal is an echo of the deGrom deal, as both pitchers have excellent stuff when healthy but have injury concerns. deGrom is in another league compared to Heaney, but they are similar high-risk upside plays for the Rangers.

The collective moves also are something of a mirror to what the club did a year ago. Tired of rebuilding and looking for a return to contention, the Rangers spent aggressively to land two of the top middle infielders in available in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Those two players didn’t immediately turn around the fortunes of the franchise, as the Rangers went 68-94 in 2022. That was largely due to a poor rotation that, as mentioned, they have completely remade in the past month. The club’s starters posted a collective 4.63 ERA that was 25th among the 30 teams in baseball. But with deGrom, Heaney and Odorizzi in the fold, their odds of moving up the list in that category are quite strong.

Financially, this deal pushes the club’s payroll up to $182MM and their competitive balance tax figure up to $204MM, per Roster Resource. The club seems poised to blow well past their previous spending levels, as their highest Opening Day payroll in the past was $165MM back in 2017, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. It’s unclear how much more spending the club plans to do, but they still have almost $30MM of wiggle room before reaching the $233MM luxury tax threshold for 2023.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News first reported the sides were nearing a deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that an agreement was in place, pending a physical. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported the two-year structure with an opt-out. Joel Sherman of the New York Post first had the $25MM guarantee plus incentives. Alden González of ESPN first added the $37MM post-incentives figure.

KBO’s KT Wiz Re-Sign Anthony Alford, Wes Benjamin

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The KT Wiz of the Korea Baseball Organization announced that they have re-signed outfielder Anthony Alford and left-hander Wes Benjamin (hat tip to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net.) Alford will make $1.1MM while Benjamin will make $1.3MM.

Alford, 28, was a highly-touted prospect in the Blue Jays’ system given his five-tool potential but he struggled against major league pitching. He got 240 plate appearances with the Jays and Pirates spread across six seasons from 2017 to 2022, striking out in 37.9% of them and producing a tepid overall batting line of .209/.275/.368.

He signed with the Wiz in May of 2022 and flourished, getting into 80 games and hitting .286/.362/.509. He hit 14 home runs and stole five bases in that brief audition, showing enough potential for the club to effectively double his salary as he was paid $577K for 2022.

Benjamin, 29, also joined the Wiz in May, signing for $331K for what remained of the season at that time. He then made 17 starts for the Wiz the rest of the way with a 2.70 ERA over 96 2/3 innings. As a reward for that solid showing, the club has retained him with a big raise for 2023.

Both players are fairly young and could garner interest from MLB clubs down the road if they continue posting solid results in 2023. But for now, they will be looking to help their club in Korea for the next season while pocketing some decent earnings.

Mets Sign José Quintana To Two-Year Deal

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December 9: The Mets have officially announced the signing.

December 7: The Mets and left-hander José Quintana are in agreement on a two-year, $26MM contract, pending a physical. He will make even salaries of $13MM in each season.

Quintana, 34 in January, was a remarkably steady and consistent member of the White Sox rotation in his first five seasons. He debuted in 2012 with 22 starts, three relief appearances and a 3.76 ERA. For the next four seasons, he made at least 32 starts in each campaign while keeping his ERA between 3.51 and 3.20.

Unfortunately, he hit a few rough patches after that, as his ERA ticked up over 4.00 for three straight campaigns from 2017 to 2019, with Quintana getting traded across town to the Cubs in that time. A thumb injury in 2020 limited him to just 10 innings pitched in the shortened campaign. He signed with the Angels for 2021 but was shelled in nine starts to begin the year and got moved to the bullpen.

Jose Quintana | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY SportsFor 2022, the rebuilding Pirates took a flier on Quintana with a one-year, $2MM deal. The hope was that he would return to form, provide some veteran stability for their young rotation and perhaps turn himself into a trade chip by the deadline. That plan could hardly have gone much better, as the southpaw made 20 starts for the Bucs, posting a 3.50 ERA. His 20.6% strikeout rate was a bit below average, but he paired that with strong walk and ground ball rates of 7.2% and 45%, respectively. He and Chris Stratton were dealt to the Cardinals at the deadline and Quintana continued his strong campaign in St. Louis. He made another 12 starts with a 2.01 ERA, finishing the year with a 2.93 mark across 32 starts and 165 2/3 innings.

Quintana was then able to return to free agency in a much stronger position than his previous trips. In addition to his strong platform season, his midseason trade made him ineligible for a qualifying offer and his age made it unlikely that he would be able to pursue a lengthy contract. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $24MM deal, with Quintana eventually nudging just barely beyond that.

For the Mets, they were facing a great deal of turnover on their pitching staff, with Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker reaching free agency, along with several relievers. deGrom has since joined the Rangers and Walker the Phillies. The Mets effectively replaced deGrom by signing Verlander and have now added Quintana to take a role in the middle or back of the rotation. That gives the Mets a front four of Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and Quintana. They have some internal options to take the fifth spot, such as David Peterson and Tylor Megill, but it’s also possible that they continue to pursue external additions.

This signing brings the club’s payroll to $290MM for next year, according to Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax figure of $301MM. It’s unclear exactly how much they plan on spending by the time the dust has settled, but owner Steve Cohen has previously floated $300MM as a ballpark figure, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. In terms of the luxury tax, they are already beyond the fourth and highest tier of penalization, which will be $293MM next year. As a second-time payor, they are subject to escalating penalties, meaning they will pay a 30% tax on the spending between $233-253MM, 42% between $253-273MM, 75% between $273-293MM and 90% above the top tier.

Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic first reported that Quintana would join the Mets at $26MM over two years. Joel Sherman of The New York Post first added that it would break down into even salaries of $13MM in each year.

Athletics To Sign Jace Peterson

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December 9: Peterson will be paid $9.5MM on the deal, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

December 6: The A’s have agreed to a two-year deal with utilityman Jace Peterson, FanSided’s Robert Murray reports (Twitter link).  The contract will become official when Peterson passes a physical.  Peterson is represented by ISE Baseball.

Except for catcher, the versatile Peterson has played at every position on the diamond during his nine MLB seasons, even tossing four innings of mop-up work in blowout games.  Most of Peterson’s experience has come at second base and third base, and the hot corner was essentially his primary position (86 appearances) with the Brewers in 2022.  It seems quite possible third base could again be Peterson’s main landing spot in Oakland, depending on how much the A’s want to use other options as Vimael Machin or Kevin Smith.  However, Peterson’s multi-positional ability gives manager Mark Kotsay plenty of options in juggling playing time.

Though the two-year contract gives Peterson some extra security, it is probably fair to assume that the rebuilding Athletics will still be open to shopping the veteran prior to the trade deadline.  Still, the two-year commitment indicates the value the A’s see in having a player who can plug so many roster holes, especially since Oakland probably isn’t done shaking up its roster.  The A’s might have had to offer that second guaranteed year to beat the market for Peterson, given how he is the type of valuable bench depth that would fit on many teams, both contenders and non-contenders.

Peterson (who turns 33 in May) showed his worth over three seasons in Milwaukee, helping the Brewers reach the postseason twice.  Not only was Peterson able to step in when Brewers starters were injured, but he also showed some pop at the plate, hitting a respectable .238/.337/.373 (98 wRC+) over 691 plate appearances with the Crew.  Peterson was also a quietly excellent baserunner, stealing 23 bases in 25 tries and rating highly on Fangraphs’ baserunning metrics.

Once Peterson passes his physical, the A’s will officially have a player under contract for the 2023 season.  It speaks to the depths of Oakland’s rebuild that not a single player on their roster is technically guaranteed money, as the roster is comprised of arbitration-eligible players and mostly pre-arb players.  The Athletics are naturally not going to be big spenders in any regard this winter, and it seems likely that any expenditures will be relatively lower-cost veteran additions like Peterson.

Rangers Designate A.J. Alexy For Assignment

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The Rangers announced their signing of left-hander Andrew Heaney, making it official. To make room on their 40-man roster, they designated right-hander A.J. Alexy for assignment. Additionally, the club announced that they have re-signed catcher David Garcia, left-hander Lucas Jacobsen and right-hander Nick Snyder to minor league deals.

Alexy, 25 in April, was a Dodgers draftee who came to the Rangers via the Yu Darvish trade in 2017. He subsequently moved his way up the minor league ranks, but missed much of 2019 due to injury and didn’t pitch at all in 2020 due to the pandemic wiping out the minors that year. Regardless, the Rangers liked him enough to add him to their 40-man roster prior to the Rule 5 draft in late 2020.

He got back on track with a nice season in 2021, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A. Over 65 innings on the farm in 10 starts and six relief appearances, he had a 1.66 ERA, 29.8% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate. That was enough to get him a promotion to the big leagues late in the year. In 2022, Alexy made four MLB appearances but was torched for an ERA of 11.57. He tossed 96 innings in Triple-A but posted a 5.91 ERA with a 23.6% strikeout rate and 12.8% walk rate.

The Rangers have been aggressively upgrading their pitching staff this offseason, re-signing Martin Perez and trading for Jake Odorizzi before signing Jacob deGrom and Heaney. All those additions have pushed their other options down the depth chart and it seems that Alexy has been nudged out of their plans. It’s possible that he could garner interest from other clubs, as he’s still quite young and has shown flashes of quality in the past. He also still has an option remaining so he wouldn’t even require a spot on an active roster. The Rangers will have one week to work out a trade, place him on waivers or release him.

As for the three minor league signees, Garcia was selected to the club’s 40-man roster at the same time as Alexy but has yet to play at even the Triple-A level. Jacobsen has yet to crack a 40-man roster. Snyder has very brief MLB experience, tossing 4 2/3 innings over the past couple of seasons. He tossed 38 Triple-A innings in 2022 with a 4.97 ERA with a 30.9% strikeout rate but a 10.9% walk rate.

Mets Still Interested In Kodai Senga After Recent Signings

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It was reported about three weeks ago that the Mets had a sit-down meeting with Japanese right-hander Kodai Senga. Since then, the club has been very busy, giving $86.66MM to Justin Verlander, $162MM to Brandon Nimmo, $26MM to Jose Quintana and $10MM to David Robertson. Despite all of that, Andy Martino of SNY reports that Senga is still an option for the club.

From a baseball perspective, the club’s continued interest in Senga is quite logical. The Mets saw three pitchers depart their rotation at the end of the 2022 season, as Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker all reached free agency. deGrom and Walker have already found new homes with the Rangers and Phillies, respectively, but the Mets have replaced them with Verlander and Quintana. With those two slotted next to Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco, they have a solid front four, with options for the final slot like David Peterson or Tylor Megill.

However, the Mets seem to have no limits on either their desire to improve nor their ability to spend money to do so. Their 2023 payroll is already up to an incredible $322MM, per Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax figure of $335MM. These are unprecedented levels and it doesn’t seem like we’ve reached their limit.

Senga was predicted by MLBTR to earn a contract of $75MM over five years, or $15MM per season. The market has proven to be incredibly strong compared to expectations this year, so it’s entirely possible he ends up eclipsing those numbers. Still, even if we stick to those projections for a second, the extra cost for the Mets will be significant. Since the Mets also paid the CBT in 2022, they will be second-time payors in 2023, which will come with added taxes. For any spending beyond the top CBT tier of $293MM, they will be paying a 90% tax. They are already well beyond that, so paying Senga even a $15MM salary will also lead to a $13.5MM tax, meaning they’d effectively be paying $28.5MM in order to obtain Senga’s services for this year.

That would certainly be quite a financial commitment to make, though it doesn’t seem the Mets are really bothered about pinching pennies at this point, simply going after whoever they want to go after. Targeting Senga makes sense as he’s perhaps the top free agent starting pitcher remaining outside of Carlos Rodón. Featuring a triple-digit heater and an excellent splitter, Senga posted a a 1.94 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate through 144 innings in the NPB this year. It wasn’t just a one-year fluke either, as he had a 2.39 ERA over his past four seasons combined.

Though the Mets seem plenty willing to spend on their desired players, they will at least have some competition here. The Blue Jays, Red Sox, Padres, Giants, Yankees and Mariners are other teams that have been connected to his market, with plenty of others surely at the table as well. But despite being in uncharted financial waters, there doesn’t seem to be any reason to count out the Mets from another splash.

Angels Pursued Willson Contreras Prior To Cardinals Deal

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In recent days, it was reported that the Cardinals and Astros had each given multi-year offers to catcher Willson Contreras, with the Cardinals eventually winning the bidding by giving him five-year, $87.5MM deal. However, there was one other team apparently at the table, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Angels were one of the teams outbid by the Cards.

The Angels have been fairly active so far this offseason, adding to their pitching staff by signing Tyler Anderson for their rotation and Carlos Estévez for their bullpen, while adding Gio Urshela to their infield and Hunter Renfroe to their outfield. It seems they are still hoping to make further moves, but the fact that they pursued a catcher like Contreras is at least mildly surprising since that doesn’t stand out as the club’s most obvious weak spot.

Max Stassi had a nice breakout for the Halos over 2020 and 2021, getting into 118 games and hitting .250/.333/.452 for a wRC+ of 113, indicating he was 13% better than league average. When combined with his strong glovework, he produced 3.6 wins above replacement over that time, according to FanGraphs. With Stassi set to reach free agency after 2022, the club signed him to an extension that went through 2024 with an club option for 2025. Unfortunately, he had a dismal campaign in 2022, hitting just .180/.267/.303. He probably deserved better than that, however, as his .239 batting average on balls in play was below his .276 career mark and well below his .325 from 2021. With another two guaranteed seasons on his deal, he’s sure to be in the mix somehow with a chance to bounce back.

Then there’s also Logan O’Hoppe, who came over from the Phillies in the deadline deal that sent Brandon Marsh to Philadelphia. Between the two clubs, he annihilated Double-A pitching last year, leading to a batting line of .283/.416/.544 and a wRC+ of 159. He skipped Triple-A to get a five-game cup of coffee in the big leagues as the season was winding down.

Neither Stassi or O’Hoppe are a sure thing, but it would have been reasonable enough to go into the season with the two of them each jockeying for playing time and letting it get sorted as the season went along. However, it seems the club has at least some openness to upgrade, based on their pursuit of Contreras. It’s possible they want to give O’Hoppe more time in the minors or maybe that they would have pursued trades with Stassi if they landed Contreras.

General manager Perry Minasian recently told members of the media that the club could push pay the competitive balance tax in 2023 with no ownership mandate against it. Roster Resource currently pegs their 2023 payroll at $198MM with a CBT figure of $213MM. The first threshold of the luxury tax will be $233MM next year, giving the Angels about $20MM to work with before they have to think about whether they are willing to cross the line or not.

Contreras ended up signing a five-year, $87.5MM deal, with comes to an average annual value of $17.5MM. We don’t know exactly how much the Angels were willing to spend on Contreras, but something in this vicinity would have gotten them close to luxury tax territory. Assuming the Angels still have that money to spend on other players, it’s a good sign for Angel fans. The club could look for another backstop but have also been connected to shortstops and bullpen help. Since Contreras was clearly on a different tier to the other available free agent backstops, it’s possible that the Angels were willing to make an exception for him and won’t necessarily circle down to the other options. However, if they are interested in pursuing help behind the plate, the free agent market has options like Christian Vázquez and Gary Sánchez. The trade market is highlighted by Oakland’s Sean Murphy and Toronto’s Danny Jansen, though the asking prices on from both the A’s and the Jays are reportedly quite high.

Padres Sign Xander Bogaerts To 11-Year Deal

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December 9: The Padres have officially announced the deal. Chris Cotillo of MassLive provides the full contract breakdown. Bogaerts will make a $5MM signing bonus followed by 11 straight seasons with a $25MM salary.

December 8: The Padres closed out the Winter Meetings with a stunner, reportedly agreeing to an 11-year, $280MM contract with Xander Bogaerts. The deal does not contain any options or opt-out provisions, although it does include a full no-trade clause. Bogaerts is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Bogaerts had spent his whole career in Boston, originally joining the organization as an amateur signee from Aruba back in 2009. He quickly developed into one of the sport’s top prospects and was in the majors by August 2013, a few months before his 21st birthday. Bogaerts claimed two Silver Slugger awards within his first four MLB seasons, but his .283/.339/.409 career slash line through 2017 was roughly league average. He took a major step forward in 2018, reaching another level in his age-25 campaign.

He hit .288/.360/.522 with 23 home runs over 136 games that season, helping lead Boston to 108 wins and a World Series title. Bogaerts sustained that new level of excellence, as he’s been a well above-average offensive performer in each of the four years since then. Going back to the start of the 2018 campaign, the righty-hitting infielder owns a .300/.373/.507 line that checks in 34 percentage points above league average by measure of wRC+.

On the heels of that breakout season, the Red Sox inked Bogaerts to a long-term deal. Boston guaranteed him $120MM between 2020-25, allowing him to opt out with half that money remaining after 2022. Bogaerts played well enough to earn MVP votes in each of the four seasons since signing that extension, making it a no-brainer he’d take his opt-out opportunity unless he and the Red Sox could preemptively agree upon a new deal.

Extension talks this spring didn’t come close, as Boston reportedly offered to tack on one additional season at $30MM. Turning that down was an easy call for Bogaerts’ camp, and he solidified his opt-out decision with another excellent year. Through 631 plate appearances, he hit .307/.377/.456. Bogaerts’ 15 home runs marked his lowest full-season total since 2017, but he finished tenth in the majors (minimum 500 plate appearances) in on-base percentage.

A career-best .362 batting average on balls in play propped up those rate stats, and it’s unlikely he’ll manage to sustain quite so lofty a mark in future seasons. He owns a career .336 BABIP, though, so there’s plenty of room to remain a strong hitter even if his batting average comes down slightly. He’s walked at an average or better clip in each of the past five years, and he’s kept his strikeout rate remarkably consistent around 18% six seasons running.

Bogaerts makes contact, draws walks and typically threatens or tops 20 homers per season. He’s one of the more well-rounded offensive players in the game, and he’ll step right into an already loaded San Diego lineup. Bogaerts joins Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the middle of a lineup that should be incredibly difficult for opposing pitchers to navigate. That quintet has 11 combined Silver Slugger awards, and they’ll bring an incredible collection of weapons from both sides of the dish.

Where to pencil everyone in on the diamond is a decision the front office and manager Bob Melvin will work out over the coming months. San Diego’s middle infield was already strong. Tatis, two years removed from inking a $341MM extension to serve as the franchise shortstop, will return from his performance-enhancing drug suspension within the first month of next season. Ha-Seong Kim is a Gold Glove caliber shortstop who had a solid .251/.325/.383 line in his second big league campaign. Jake Cronenworth is an above-average defender at second base and owns a .257/.339/.443 mark through his first three seasons.

At least for the moment, Bogaerts seems likely to step in at shortstop. Scott Boras categorically rejected the possibility of Bogaerts moving off the position earlier this offseason. Perhaps the strength of the Padres’ offer changed that thinking, but it’s also possible the Friars rearrange their infield to accommodate his wishes. San Diego had already been considering the idea of moving Tatis to the outfield after his lost season in deference to Kim. Pushing Tatis into left or center field now seems especially likely. Bogaerts could step in at shortstop, with Kim moving to second base and Cronenworth taking over an uncertain first base position.

Bogaerts’ glove has been the subject of immense attention throughout the free agent process. The 6’2″, 218-pounder has a larger build than many shortstops, and he’s drawn some criticism for lacking prototypical range. Public defensive metrics roundly panned his glove throughout his career, with Defensive Runs Saved pegging him below par every year from 2014-21. Concerns about his long-term defensive outlook seemingly played into Boston’s low extension offer this past spring, but Bogaerts posted the strongest defensive metrics of his career in 2022.

In 1249 2/3 innings this past season, he rated as five runs above average by DRS and four runs better than par, according to Statcast. Concerns about his lateral quickness into his mid-30’s figure to persist, but his strong 2022 campaign at least reduced any urgency to move him off shortstop immediately.

The Padres clearly aren’t much concerned about Bogaerts’ long-term defensive fit. Owner Peter Seidler and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller have been hellbent on adding another star regardless of position. They reportedly made offers well north of $300MM for both Trea Turner and Aaron Judge, but both players declined and signed elsewhere. Those failed pursuits of Turner and Judge made the Padres a fascinating wild card this offseason, and while reports initially suggested they were unlikely to dip back into the shortstop market, they pivoted and made a run at Bogaerts.

An 11-year term will take him through his age-40 campaign. That matches the term Turner received from Philadelphia, but Bogaerts was generally expected to command a lesser deal in light of his long-term defensive concerns. Turner’s $300MM guarantee does beat the one received by Bogaerts, but the $20MM gap was closer than most had envisioned.

The deal shatters MLBTR’s pre-offseason prediction of $189MM over seven seasons. It’s the second-largest free agent deal in franchise history — trailing only Machado’s ten-year, $300MM pact. The $280MM guarantee is the seventh-largest for a free agent in MLB history, with Judge and Turner topping it thus far among this offseason’s free agents.

The cost for the Padres goes well beyond the terms of the offer itself. The specific financial breakdown hasn’t yet been reported, but the contract comes with a $25.45MM average annual value. That’s the relevant consideration for luxury tax purposes, and it sends the Padres well into tax territory. Roster Resource projects the Friars for a tax number around $254MM at present. That’s $21MM north of the $233MM base threshold, and $1MM above the second tier of penalization.

San Diego has paid the luxury tax in each of the last two seasons, and it looks all but certain they’ll do so again. They’re taxed at a 50% rate for every dollar spent between $233MM and $253MM, coming out to $10MM in fees. They’ll be charged 62% on any overages between $253MM and $273MM, and they’d face heightened penalties thereafter. As things currently stand, the Bogaerts deal sets them up for a tax bill around $10.6MM. Further additions or subtractions will alter that number, but it’s virtually certain they’ll be into competitive balance tax territory yet again.

It’s worth noting that at $27.27MM and $25.45MM respectively, both Turner and Bogaerts accepted lower average annual values than expected while also reaching an 11-year term that had only happened once before in free agency when Bryce Harper signed for 13 years.  With infielders Corey Seager, Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor, and Anthony Rendon receiving AAVs ranging from $32.5-35MM dating back to 2019, it may be surprising that Turner and Bogaerts fell well below that range.  It’s all about that CBT – the Phillies and Padres reduce their luxury tax hits and tax bills for taking on the players’ late-30s seasons, which project to have little value.

Bogaerts rejected a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, meaning the Padres will also have to surrender draft choices to add him. As a team that paid the luxury tax in 2022, they’re subject to the highest penalties. San Diego will be stripped of its second and fifth-highest selections in next year’s amateur draft, and they’ll forfeit $1MM in international signing bonus space.

While the Padres load up for another run at the powerhouse Dodgers in the NL West, the Red Sox will have to move on from a homegrown star who’s played a key role with the franchise for nearly a decade. It’s an abrupt about-face for the organization. While it had long looked as if Bogaerts would depart given the lack of progress on an extension in Spring Training, reports Wednesday morning suggested their talks with his camp were gaining momentum.

It seemed as if he might remain in Boston for the entirety of his prime, but the Padres’ offer wound up handily surpassing Boston’s. Pete Abraham and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe report the Red Sox had offered a six-year term worth around $160MM. That was more in line with general pre-offseason expectations and contained a slightly higher annual salary than the deal Boagerts received, but San Diego’s willingness to tack on an extra half-decade in guaranteed money made the gap enormous.  Somehow, the $137.375MM the Red Sox spent on Masataka Yoshida and Kenley Jansen earlier Wednesday almost seems quaint in comparison to the Bogaerts contract.

The Red Sox will receive compensation for Bogaerts’ departure, but it’s at the lowest tier since Boston also paid the competitive balance tax in 2022. They’ll receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft. That’s of small consolation, and the far greater concern is how the club will move forward. Boston signed Trevor Story to a $140MM guarantee last offseason, giving themselves some cover at shortstop. Should they prefer to keep Story at second base, they could check in with the two remaining top free agent shortstops, Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson.  Regardless, Boston is certainly not done after chief baseball office Chaim Bloom said Monday he hopes to add “seven, eight, nine” players to the team this offseason.  Starting pitcher and the catcher position are two items remaining on the shopping list even if shortstop is handled in-house.

Correa and Swanson are sitting pretty with Turner and Bogaerts having exceeded expectations in terms of total dollars.  While the Boras Corporation representing both Bogaerts and Correa could be viewed as a conflict of interest, the agency managed to get Bogaerts signed with a team that hadn’t been expected to sign a shortstop at the outset of the offseason.

It’s a deal of massive proportions, one that could drastically shake up both leagues. After a couple attempts came up empty, the Padres landed their desired superstar. The Red Sox’s optimism of a few hours ago was dashed by a determined organization that now spends like a big-market behemoth. Bogaerts lands one of the largest contracts in MLB history, setting the stage for a fascinating bidding war for the two star shortstops who remain unsigned.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report Bogaerts and the Padres had agreed to an 11-year, $280MM contract. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported the deal did not come with any opt-out provisions and included a full no-trade clause.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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