NL West Notes: Kelly, Pham, Dodgers, Padres, Preller
Merrill Kelly‘s gem of an outing in Game 2 has made him the talk of baseball, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal took a look back at the right-hander’s unique path to the World Series stage. Beginning his career in the Rays’ farm system, Kelly signed with the KBO League’s SK Wyverns and spent four seasons pitching in South Korea, despite feeling an urge to return to North American baseball halfway through that stint. Still, pitching in the KBO League sparked Kelly’s career to the point that Diamondbacks had interest in a free agent deal during the 2018-19 offseason, and Kelly signed a two-year, $5.5MM deal with club options attached for 2021 and 2022.
This was the only multi-year offer Kelly received that winter, so he jumped at the chance at some extra security as he made his MLB debut at age 30. Between that initial contract and a subsequent extension signed prior to the 2022 season, Kelly’s time in Arizona has now included five seasons, at least $32.5MM in guaranteed salary, and now a key role in the postseason. Kelly has a 2.25 ERA over four starts and 24 innings in these playoffs, and holds an interesting distinction as the first pitcher to earn a win in both the Korean Series (helping the Wyverns capture the 2018 title) and the World Series.
Some more from around the NL West….
- Before the Diamondbacks picked up Tommy Pham from the Mets at the trade deadline, the Dodgers were known to be one of several other teams who considered acquiring the veteran outfielder. Pham told Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times that he wanted to join the Dodgers last offseason, but president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman twice turned down overtures from Pham’s agent, as L.A. was focused on adding a left-handed hitting outfielder instead. David Peralta ended up being that lefty swinging outfielder, and while Peralta had a subpar season, Pham hit .256/.328/.446 over 481 combined PA with the Mets and D’Backs this season. Pham has continued to contribute during Arizona’s playoff run, including a four-hit night in Game 2 of the World Series.
- A.J. Preller’s management style as the Padres‘ president of baseball operations has come under increased criticism due to the team’s disappointing 2023 season, as well as the reported discord between Preller and now-former manager Bob Melvin. Preller spoke with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune and other reporters about what he is looking for in hiring the Padres’ next skipper, with Acee adding details and anecdotes within the piece related to Preller’s approach, his (to some, overbearing) attention to detail, and the communication breakdown that occurred between Preller and Melvin over the last year.
James Outman, Breakout Man
As a fan of dad joke-level wordplay, I was tempted to title this post “James Outman Came Outta Nowhere,” except that wasn’t really the case. The Athletic’s Keith Law had Outman on his list (in 89th) of the 100 best prospects in baseball heading into the 2023 season, the outfielder tore up minor league pitching in 2021-22, and Outman even had a 1.409 OPS over the very small sample size of the 16 plate appearances he received with the Dodgers in 2022. That put Outman in good stead to win a spot on Los Angeles’ Opening Day roster, and he indeed secured his place with a big Spring Training.
From there, it isn’t a stretch to call Outman one of the Dodgers’ most valuable players of 2023. In fact, Outman and Will Smith tied for third on the club with 4.4 fWAR, as only NL MVP candidates Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman has more fWAR among all Dodgers position players.
The season had its share of ups and downs for Outman, as his hot start in April was followed up by a .551 OPS over 166 plate appearances in May and June. Just when it looked like Outman might’ve just been a flash in the pan, his bat steadied once more, and he posted an .852 OPS over 292 PA over the remainder of the regular season. It all added up to a .248/.353/.437 slash line and 23 home runs, which translated to a 118 wRC+. Beyond the offense, Outman was also a stellar center field defender in the view of the Outs Above Average metric (+9), and the UZR/150 (+1.8) and Defensive Runs Saved (+1) metrics at least had his glovework slightly above average.
This defensive performance ended up being particularly important given how center field might’ve otherwise been a big problem area for Los Angeles. With Cody Bellinger gone to the Cubs in free agency, the Dodgers went into 2023 prepared to give Trayce Thompson a big chunk of center field time, as Thompson unexpectedly hit very well after coming to L.A. in 2022. Thompson was slated for the majority of playing time up the middle, with a pair of left-handed bats (Outman and veteran minor league signing Jason Heyward) in position as complements for platoon purposes.
Unfortunately for Thompson, everything went downhill after a three-homer performance in his first game of the season. Thompson struggled badly over the first two months and then missed two more months on the 60-day injured list due to an oblique strain before he was included in the trade package that brought Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox prior to the trade deadline. Heyward was having a nice comeback year but had an increased amount of playing time in right field, as Mookie Betts was needed at second base and shortstop due to injuries in the Dodgers’ middle infield.
That left center field for Outman, who rose to the occasion. Heyward, Chris Taylor, Jonny Deluca, and deadline pickup Enrique Hernandez chipped in for playing time, but by and large, Outman was the Dodgers’ everyday center fielder. This looks to be the case heading into 2024 as well, even though the 26-year-old has some flaws to correct in his game.
The .343 BABIP could indicate some natural regression is in order, even if Outman has a lot of speed and can challenge for hits even on weak-ish contact. This baserunning skill came in handy since Outman’s hard-contact numbers were nothing special — a 39.9% total that ranked in the 44th percentile of all hitters, even if his strong barrel and sweet-spot rates generated some power. The bigger issues were a 31.9% strikeout rate that was among the worst in the league, and an overall lack of production against left-handed pitching. Outman had just a .665 OPS over 154 PA against southpaws, compared to an .836 PA against righties.
These splits and the high strikeout totals also troubled Outman in the upper minors, and even Law’s positive scouting report praised Outman’s other tools but noted that “there’s too much swing and miss in the zone here to say he’ll be more than an average hitter.” The obvious volatility within Outman’s numbers might make him a candidate for a sophomore slump, now that opposing teams have more of a book on him and know to keep throwing him breaking balls.
On the other hand, Outman could be partially shielded simply by becoming a bit more of a platoon player. He’d still get the bulk of at-bats as the left-handed side of a center field platoon, but having a righty-swinger to split time would help Outman avoid southpaws. As to who that right-handed center fielder might be, Taylor, Deluca, and Andy Pages are in the mix, even if Deluca might be the only real center field option of that group from a defensive standpoint. Hernandez is a free agent and a candidate to be re-signed. Betts might even factor in for the occasional cameo in center field, even if the Dodgers would ideally like to see Betts mostly back in his normal right field spot, and the middle infield shored up by a healthy Gavin Lux and perhaps a new acquisition to join veteran Miguel Rojas.
The Dodgers have enough pressing offseason needs that a platoon center fielder is relatively down their list of priorities, not to mention the fact that left field is a bigger question mark in the outfield alone. That said, Outman’s emergence provides some major relief for Los Angeles, and gives hope that despite all the middle infield issues, the Dodgers can at least get some strength up the middle with a solid center field option.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s live baseball chat
Managerial/Coaching Notes: Thomson, Counsell, Guardians, Orioles
There haven’t yet been any talks between the Phillies and manager Rob Thomson about a contract extension, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters (including the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Alex Coffey) this week. Thomson was named interim manager during the 2022 season after Joe Girardi was fired, and after the Phillies’ run to the World Series, Thomson was given a new two-year pact as the club’s new full-time skipper. No club options were attached to the deal, so the 60-year-old Thomson is only locked up through the 2024 campaign.
Despite the relative lack of contractual stability, it doesn’t appear as though Thomson is going anywhere, given how successful the Fightins have been under his watch. With still plenty of time left for an extension to be negotiated, it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see a new contract for Thomson announced prior to Opening Day. Though Thomson had been planning to retire from baseball heading into the 2022 season, his first run as a big league manager has re-energized his spirits. “I love this city, this organization, this team. I have never had as much fun in my life as I have the last couple of years. So yeah, I can envision [managing beyond 2024,” Thomson told Coffey and company.
More on other dugout situations around baseball….
- The Guardians are set to interview Craig Counsell after being granted permission by the Brewers earlier this week, creating speculation that the Guards might be able to find another experienced, successful manager to replace Terry Francona. However, a Counsell/Cleveland pairing looks to be “a long shot,” as a source tells Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Pluto feels Counsell will ultimately end up staying in Milwaukee, though he thinks “the Guardians should go hard after Counsell” by giving him a deal akin to Francona’s past status as the highest-paid manager in baseball. Of course, this wouldn’t stop the Brewers from also offering Counsell a raise, or the deep-pocketed Mets (who are also pursuing Counsell) from going overboard in a bidding war.
- The Orioles‘ coaching changes earlier this week could be “akin to the principal becoming the headmaster of a school and a new principal coming in beneath him to handle the day to day,” The Baltimore Banner’s Jon Meoli writes. Chris Holt will remain the club’s director of pitching, even if he will no longer be acting as the Orioles’ pitching coach and quite so intimately involved in game-day operations. Odds are that the Orioles will fill the pitching coach role from within, though Meoli feels an outside hire would represent some alteration in Baltimore’s approach in managing and developing their hurlers.
Rays Notes: Coaching, Glasnow, Catcher
The Rays coaching staff is set to see some changes this offseason, with three departures having been reported previously. Per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, the club’s head of mental performance Justin Su’a is set to shift to a reduced role next season due to family considerations. Su’a has been with the club since 2018, and it’s unclear how the Rays plan on covering his current responsibilities as he steps back into a smaller role.
Topkin also notes that the Rays are making progress in filling the first base coach vacancy created by the departure of Chris Prieto, with interviews scheduled to begin this week. Triple-A manager Michael Johns, Double-A manager Morgan Ensberg, and coaching/player development assistant director Alejandro Freire are among the internal candidates under consideration for the job, though Topkin adds the team figures to interview external candidates as well. Both Ensberg and Freire played in the majors prior to their coaching careers; Ensberg spent eight seasons in the big leagues as an infielder for the Astros, Yankees, and Padres while Freire had a 25-game stint at first base with the Orioles in 2005.
Beyond the coaching changes, Topkin discusses the club’s upcoming offseason decisions. While the Rays have publicly indicated they could be open to an increased payroll next season, RosterResource projects the team for a payroll of $130MM next season, a $51MM increase over the club’s 2023 payroll. Even if the club were willing to substantially ramp up payroll, the club’s near 40% jump in payroll before any external additions leaves the club likely to explore cost-saving moves this offseason. The club’s most obvious route to trimming payroll would be dealing right-hander Tyler Glasnow, who is set to make $25MM next year in his final season before free agency.
That being said, a Glasnow deal would come with plenty of pitfalls, most obvious of which is the concerning state the rotation would be left in for Opening Day 2024. Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale would both figure to be locked into rotation spots entering Spring Training, but things get murkier from there. Shane Baz is expected to return from Tommy John surgery next season, while Zack Littell and Taj Bradley drew starts for the club to mixed results in 2023. Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs could both rejoin the team late in the season after rehabbing surgeries that ended their 2023 campaigns early. With just two clearly proven, healthy starters besides Glasnow entering 2023, it seems that the Rays would need to find a way to add an arm to the rotation if they did part ways with the righty this offseason.
For Topkin’s part, he suggests that the Rays would be better served making a decision on Glasnow as early in the offseason as possible. Topkin notes that any trade of Glasnow (or lack there of) would likely exert significant influence over the club’s overall offseason plan, and the sooner the club makes a decision on Glasnow, the sooner they can begin looking for a free agent starter to replace him in the rotation, or, alternatively, looking for other ways to trim the club’s payroll. Outfielders Manuel Margot and Harold Ramirez (the latter of whom MLBTR recently profiled as a potential trade candidate) both were mentioned as pieces the Rays could potentially part with this offseason, as well as catcher Christian Bethancourt.
Bethancourt, 32, was Tampa’s primary catcher in 2023, though he struggled at the plate with a .225/.254/.381 slash line in 104 games. Late in the season, Bethancourt ceded the everyday job to 26-year-old Rene Pinto, who performed solid as the club’s regular backstop for the final two months of the season. Topkin makes clear that the Rays appear poised to go in a different direction behind the plate, both noting Bethancourt as a potential candidate to depart the team this offseason and highlighting catching help as a key need for the club this offseason as they look for a player to pair with Pinto behind the plate.
One possible solution Topkin floats is a reunion with Alex Jackson, who played 14 games for the club’s Triple-A affiliate this season before going down with injury. Prior to the 2023 campaign, Jackson spent the past four seasons as a depth option for the Braves, Marlins, and Brewers, getting occasional exposure to the big leagues but only getting an extended look in 2021. He’s struggled with the bat at the big league level to this point with a career slash line of .141/.243/.227 in 185 trips to the plate, though at just 27-years-0ld with a career .851 OPS at the Triple-A level it’s at least conceivable he could unlock another level with more consistent major league opportunities. The upcoming free agent class behind the plate features the likes of Gary Sanchez and Victor Caratini as potential regular options.
MLBTR Poll: Cardinals’ Outfield Logjam
The Cardinals have made clear their intention to pursue plenty of pitching help as they attempt to return to contention in 2024. While the deep class of pitchers set to be available provides the club with ample opportunities to dip into free agency, it’s no secret that the Cardinals have an excess of outfield talent. Each of Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Dylan Carlson, and Tyler O’Neill play the outfield exclusively for St. Louis, while multi-positional options Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman saw plenty of time in the outfield as well during the 2023 campaign.
That led the Cardinals to field trade offers on their glut of outfield talent at the trade deadline, though none of their position players ultimately ended up moving besides pending free agent shortstop Paul DeJong. Those talks could begin anew this coming offseason, allowing the Cardinals to explore the trade market for potential pitching additions. Walker and Nootbaar were both regarded as essentially untouchable at the deadline, and it seems likely that they’ll be similarly protected from trade talks this offseason. That being said, each of Carlson, O’Neill, Edman, and Donovan found their names in the rumor mill this past season. Let’s take a look at each of them:
Dylan Carlson (0.2 fWAR in 2023)
Carlson, who celebrated his 25th birthday earlier this week, is coming off a major down season in 2023 where he slashed just .219/.318/.333 in 255 plate appearances. Despite those brutal numbers, Carlson reportedly received interest from multiple clubs at the trade deadline, including the Yankees and Orioles. As a young switch-hitter who was once a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport and is under team control through the 2026 campaign, Carlson could once again be a sought-after change of scenery candidate. That being said, his value is likely at an all time low after undergoing ankle surgery in September (though he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training) and posting the worst offensive season of his career in 2023. Given Carlson’s remaining team control, it’s possible the Cardinals would be better off holding onto their former top prospect in hopes he can rebound in 2024 and improve his stock. On the other hand, another difficult season for Carlson in 2024 could squander whatever remaining interest clubs have in prying him away from St. Louis.
Tyler O’Neill (0.8 fWAR in 2023)
Much like Carlson, O’Neill is also coming off something of a down season, having slashed just .231/.312/.403 in 266 trips to the plate in 2023. As uninspiring as those numbers may be, O’Neill is just two seasons removed from a sensational 2021 campaign that saw him slash .286/.352/.560 with a 143 wRC+ and 5.5 fWAR in 138 games. What’s more, O’Neill posted the lowest strikeout rate of his career in 2023, with a 25.2% strikeout rate. If O’Neill can find a way to balance the power he flashed in 2021 with his improved plate discipline in 2023, he could be an impactful offensive player for just about any club. That being said, with just one year of team control remaining before O’Neill hits free agency, he would likely generate the smallest return package of any of the players listed here. With contention in 2024 uncertain, it’s easy to make the argument that the Cardinals would be wise to deal O’Neill while they still can, though it’s also fair to wonder if they’d be selling too low on a player with an exciting offensive ceiling.
Brendan Donovan (2.1 fWAR in 2023)
Donovan, 26, made good on a strong rookie campaign during his sophomore season, slashing .284/.365/.422 while flashing improved power numbers in 371 trips to the plate. Donovan underwent season-ending surgery on the day of the trade deadline this year after being relegated to DH-only duties for much of the season thanks to a flexor tendon injury. Fortunately, Donovan is expected to be ready Spring Training in 2024 and, when healthy, is a premiere utility option who would be of interest to virtually any club. To this point in his career, Donovan has logged time at all four infield spots and both outfield corners. Between his versatility, solid bat, and the fact that he’s not yet even eligible for arbitration, Donovan is easily the most attractive trade candidate on this list who would deliver the strongest return, though it would be a major loss for the Cardinals offense if the club parted with a player of Donovan’s caliber.
Tommy Edman (2.3 fWAR in 2023)
Perhaps the most surprising candidate to appear on this list, Edman came into the 2023 campaign having spent the overwhelming majority of his career on the infield dirt as a shortstop and second baseman. That changed this season, however, as Edman split his time between second base, shortstop, and center field, taking his role in center quite well. While Edman slashed just .248/.307/.399 (92 wRC+) in 137 games with the club this year, his quality defense at three up the middle positions and roughly league average switch-hitting bat would make him an attractive trade candidate for virtually any team. Edman is controlled through the 2025 campaign, giving him more value on the trade market than a rental bat like O’Neill even as he doesn’t come with the same extensive team control as Carlson or Donovan.
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With the Cardinals looking to completely revamp their pitching staff in 2023, it would be a shock if the club didn’t at least look into dealing from its surplus of outfield depth while they attempt to return to contention following a 91-loss season. If they do move on from one of the aforementioned players, which should they look to deal? O’Neill or Carlson departing likely wouldn’t set the 2024 club back very much on offense, though they presumably wouldn’t garner a very significant return as the club looks to add big league-ready pitching options. On the other hand, the club would be far more likely to land a bona fide rotation-caliber arm if they dealt Donovan or Edman, but the 2024 team’s positional group would take a far more significant step back in losing either player’s versatility.
(poll link for app users)
Which Outfielder Should The Cardinals Move?
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Tyler O'Neill 58% (3,666)
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Dylan Carlson 25% (1,571)
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Tommy Edman 10% (627)
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Brendan Donovan 7% (463)
Total votes: 6,327
AL Notes: Orioles, Astros, Red Sox
The Orioles figure to have something of a logjam in the outfield next year, as established starters Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins, and Austin Hays will be joined by top prospects Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad on the grass in the majors at some point next year. As noted by Roch Kubatko of MASN, that could come as soon as the start of the 2024 season, as GM Mike Elias has indicated that both Cowser and Kjerstad could be in the mix for the Opening Day roster next season. That leaves the Orioles with five starting caliber outfielders headed into the 2024 campaign, and that ignores depth options like Kyle Stowers and Ryan McKenna.
Needless to say, given the club’s logjam, the club figures to field interest on their outfielders this offseason, with Kubatko noting that “industry speculation” suggests the Orioles could look to move one of their five primary outfield options in order to free up playing time. Among them, Kubatko indicates that Santander and Hays have drawn the most interest, while the Orioles are likely to consider Cowser in particular to be untouchable in trade talks. Subtracting either Santander or Hays from the club’s 2024 outfield mix would leave them with a very lefty-heavy outfield, as each of Mullins, Cowser, Kjerstad, and Stowers bat left-handed. Given that, Santander might be the most sensible player for the club to move as a switch-hitter with just one year of control remaining, compared to Hays’s two years of team control and righty bat.
More from the American League…
- Dusty Baker has announced his retirement from managing, prompting the Astros to begin a managerial search. That search, of course, is still in its early stages with Houston having just been eliminated from postseason contention less than a week ago. Houston bench coach Joe Espada and former Angels and Tigers manager Brad Ausmus are both reportedly under consideration for the position, but questions remain as to who exactly will conduct the club’s managerial search. Chandler Rome of The Athletic discussed that uncertainty earlier this week, noting that owner Jim Crane and adviser Jeff Bagwell both wield considerable influence in the front office, even with GM Dana Brown at the helm of the baseball operations department. Rome notes that Bagwell was particularly influential in the club’s 2022-23 offseason following the departure of former GM James Click last November, while Crane was a key engineer of the Justin Verlander trade at the deadline this year. Rome indicates that the duo’s influence over baseball operations will continue with the upcoming managerial search, with each having “immense say” over the next manager alongside Brown.
- The Chaim Bloom era of Red Sox baseball is now officially in the rearview mirror as the club hired former major league pitcher and Cubs executive Craig Breslow as the club’s new chief baseball officer earlier this week. MassLive’s Sean McAdam discussed the importance of Breslow and manager Alex Cora building a strong relationship together in the early stages of their partnership, and in doing so noted that the relationship between Bloom and Cora frayed during the “last year or so” of Bloom’s tenure at the helm. While Cora was frustrated with Bloom’s lack of urgency in returning to contention, McAdam notes that the pair’s relationship was complicated by Cora temporarily departing the club during the 2019-20 offseason, mere months after Bloom was hired to replace Dave Dombrowski. Fortunately for the Red Sox, Breslow and Cora should have no such roadblock as they look to build a strong working relationship going forward.
Naoyuki Uwasawa To Be Posted For MLB Teams This Winter
Japanese right-hander Naoyuki Uwasawa is planning a move to North American baseball, as the Nippon Ham-Fighters starter told reporters (including the Kyodo News) at a press conference. Uwasawa isn’t yet a full agent, so he will be made available to Major League via the posting system. Uwasawa turns 30 in February, and has a 3.19 ERA over 1118 1/3 career innings with the Fighters, along with a 7.5% walk rate and a modest 19.67% strikeout rate.
Making his NPB debut in 2014, Uwasawa is a three-time All-Star (including this season) and has developed into a reliable starter in terms of both results and durability, apart from a freak injury that shortened his 2019 season. Uwasawa had his left knee fractured by a line drive that year, but has returned in good health, tossing 102 innings during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and then throwing at least 152 innings in each of the last three full NPB seasons.
MLBTR’s Dai Takegami Podziewski has regularly featured Uwasawa in his NPB Players To Watch feature, as Uwasawa has made his intentions clear for some time that he wanted to test himself against North American competition. There are some concerns over Uwasawa’s ability to transition to the big leagues, as Dai wrote that “Uwasawa doesn’t have an overpowering arm with his average fastball velocity sitting around 90.8 mph. He also does not boast strikeout stuff, while not having the same command that [Kohei] Arihara had when he was coming to MLB (although Arihara himself was wild during his Rangers tenure).” The mention of Arihara isn’t a promising comp, as Arihara had a 7.57 ERA over 60 2/3 innings with Texas in 2021-22 before returning to Nippon Professional Baseball for the 2023 campaign.
Nonetheless, MLB teams are gauging for themselves how well they think Uwasawa might fare against big league competition. A Sports Hochi report from September indicated that scouts from the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Reds, Royals, Cubs, and Angels all saw Uwasawa in action, so the righty is drawing a fair amount of interest. While Uwasawa doesn’t have the high profile of NPB stars like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga, and others this winter, he does represent an interesting mid-level entry into the pitching market who probably won’t require a particularly large contract.
As a reminder about the MLB/NPB posting system, any players with less than nine full years of experience must first be posted by his Japanese team before negotiating with Major League clubs. Once posted, Uwasawa has 45 days to talk with any MLB team he wishes, and he would return to the Fighters after those 45 days if no contract agreement is reached. The Fighters would receive a posting fee if Uwasawa did sign with a Major League team, with the fee being worth at least 20% of the guaranteed value of Uwasawa’s contract. Should Uwasawa sign for more than $25MM in guaranteed money, the Fighters would receive a higher fee.
MLBTR Poll: Should The Brewers Trade Willy Adames?
The 2023 offseason has long had the look of one that could spell significant change for the Brewers. Between manager Craig Counsell interviewing with other clubs as he prepares to potentially depart from the organization and a the news that right-handed ace Brandon Woodruff will miss the majority of 2024 due to shoulder surgery, the winds of change seem to be blowing through Milwaukee more strongly than ever before.
Woodruff is projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz to make $11.6MM in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames join him as high-dollar arbitration players entering their final season of team control. Burnes is projected for a $15.1MM payday, while Adames projects for a $12.4MM salary in 2024. Taken together, the three players project for a whopping $39.1MM. Those three projected salaries and the $26MM owed to Christian Yelich next season combine to make up more than half of the club’s estimated $126MM payroll (courtesy of RosterResource) in 2023.
Beyond those commitments, the club has a $9.5MM decision to make on Mark Canha‘s club option and arbitration raises for the likes of Adrian Houser and Devin Williams, not to mention smaller guaranteed contracts for the likes of Freddy Peralta and Aaron Ashby. Beyond that, the club will need to add to a rotation that figures to enter the 2024 campaign with only Burnes, Peralta, and Houser locked in as starters, replace Victor Caratini as a complement to William Contreras behind the plate, and find ways to improve an offense that finished the season with a wRC+ of just 92, the seventh worst figure in the majors.
With a laundry list of needs and limited payroll space, it’s long been speculated that Milwaukee could look to deal Burnes ahead of his impending free agency in 2024, allowing them to recoup value for their ace pitcher while also saving $15MM or more to put towards other additions. As sensible as that plan may have been, Woodruff’s injury complicates things for the Brewers. After all, the idea of trading Burnes hinges in part on the fact that Woodruff and Peralta would be a capable front-of-the-rotation duo that could help the club absorb the loss of Burnes. With Woodruff out for at least the first half of 2024 and perhaps even longer, the club’s Opening Day rotation would have only Peralta and Houser penciled into it if Burnes were traded.
Given the importance of Burnes to the club’s competitive hopes for 2024, it’s become more sensible than ever for the Brewers to consider dealing their shortstop as a way to open up budget space while also bringing in pieces who could help fill out the major league club for 2024 and beyond. Adames would surely garner plenty of interest on the trade market. Though the league has seen plenty of quality shortstops hit free agency in recent winters, that’s changing this winter: the class is highlighted by the likes of Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield, and Gio Urshela. Despite the dearth of quality options, plenty of teams could be in the market for infield help such as the Mariners, Marlins, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Blue Jays. Adames’s mix of strong defense and average-or-better offense should make him an attractive trade candidate and perhaps the best player available at his position, even after a down campaign that saw Adames slash just .217/.310/.407 with a career-worst wRC+ of 94.
Of course, there’s potential pitfalls in such an approach as well. The club seems likely to stick with Brice Turang up the middle in 2024, with the likes of Andruw Monasterio, Abraham Toro, Jahmai Jones and Owen Miller as possible depth pieces. That group would surely need at least one additional player to replace Adames. The Brewers could look again to the trade market to replace Adames with a younger infielder, or simply move Turang to shortstop while signing a player like Urshela or Merrifield who could potentially provide the club with an offensive boost.
Given those pitfalls, a trade of Adames would likely require a return package that fills holes in other areas for the Brewers. If Milwaukee were able to land rotation help or a potential infield regular in exchange for Adames, a trade would be an excellent way for the club to extend its competitive window beyond the 2024 season without taking too significant a step back in the short-term. That being said, replacing the production of Adames would require savvy moves from a Brewers front office that has struggled to get offense from the rest of its infield in recent years.
What do MLBTR readers think the best path forward is for the Brewers? Should they retain Adames despite the holes in the roster and his impending free agency after 2024? Or should they risk a significant step back on the infield in 2024 in order to shore up the roster in other areas and improve the club’s standing for 2025 and beyond? Have your say in the poll below:
(poll link for app users)
Should the Brewers trade Willy Adames this offseason?
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Yes, they should move Adames this offseason. 61% (2,786)
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No, they should retain Adames headed into 2024. 39% (1,780)
Total votes: 4,566
Looking For A Match In An Alex Verdugo Trade
Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo saw his name floated around the trade deadline as a potential trade candidate, and though no trade ultimately came together, it’s worth noting that the club did field interest from clubs including both the Yankees and Astros regarding Verdugo at the deadline. With new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow now in place, the club’s focus figures to turn toward the offseason proper, and Verdugo once again makes sense as a trade candidate.
After all, the club has plenty of quality outfield options. Masataka Yoshida is entrenched in left field after a strong first stateside campaign, while the likes of Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela all represent solid young outfield options that the Red Sox have previously expressed belief in. Of that quartet, only Rafaela bats right-handed, so Verdugo’s presence does little to balance out the club’s heavily left-handed outfield mix. With just one year of team control remaining before Verdugo hits free agency, the 27-year-old sticks out as a prime trade candidate for a Boston club looking to pull itself back into contention after back-to-back last place finishes in the AL East.
That’s not to say Verdugo isn’t a quality player in his own right, of course. He’s been a roughly league average bat in each of the past three seasons, slashing .278/.334/.417 with a wRC+ of 102 since the start of the 2021 campaign. He paired that average offensive with above-average defense in right field this year, as he posted a solid +1 Outs Above Average alongside a more impressive +9 Defensive Runs Saved. Only Fernando Tatis Jr. had a higher DRS in right field this year, per Fielding Bible.
The lackluster free agent market for position players further bolsters Verdugo’s potential trade candidacy. While the top of the market features Cody Bellinger, who is coming off his best season since his 2019 MVP campaign, the rest of the market pales in comparison with the likes of Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Pham, and Jorge Soler among the group’s highlights. For teams in need of short-term outfield help, a one-year commitment to Verdugo (who MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects to make $9.2MM in his final trip through arbitration) could make more sense than targeting one of those mid-tier free agents who could potentially be in search of a multi-year deal.
Teams that are unlikely to contend in 2023 are easy to eliminate from this exercise, as they wouldn’t particularly stand to benefit from a one-year deal with Verdugo. That would seem to eliminate the A’s, Nationals, Rockies, Royals, and White Sox from the list of potential teams. Teams without a significant need for a corner outfield bat are also fairly easy to eliminate. The Angels, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Giants, Orioles, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Tigers, and Twins all appear to be fairly set in the outfield corners. That still leaves 12 teams that could potentially have interest in Verdugo’s services, however. Let’s take a look at how they match up…
Best Fits:
- Astros: Houston was one of the teams linked to the Red Sox at the trade deadline, and it’s easy to see why given the club’s desire to acquire a left-handed outfielder to complement Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick, given the uncertain health situation of veteran Michael Brantley at the time. It stands to reason that the club’s interest in Verdugo would continue into this offseason, with Brantley set to hit free agency and leave an opening in the club’s left field mix. Verdugo would provide quality defense in left field and complement the right-handed bats of McCormick and Meyers alongside fellow lefty Kyle Tucker, who figures to play every day in right.
- Braves: The Braves hold a $9MM option on the services of Eddie Rosario for the 2024 season, and while Rosario bounced back from a brutal 2022 campaign to post league average offensive numbers this year, Verdugo would be a more consistent player with stronger defense at roughly the same financial cost. The clear upgrade Verdugo provides for the Braves over their current left field mix makes Atlanta a strong potential landing spot for Verdugo, who would join Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuna Jr. in the outfield while allowing Marcell Ozuna to remain as the club’s regular DH.
- Dodgers: As unusual as it would be for the Dodgers to trade for Verdugo just four seasons after including him in the package that brought Mookie Betts from Boston to LA, Verdugo would be an excellent fit for the Dodgers, who are set to lose lefty corner bats David Peralta and Jason Heyward to free agency this offseason. Though a healthy season from Gavin Lux would allow Betts to patrol right field on a regular basis again in 2024 after spending much of 2023 on the infield dirt, the club still figures to be in need of an outfield regular alongside Betts and James Outman. Additionally, Verdugo’s left-handed bat would complement the right-handed bat of Chris Taylor, who figures to play a utility role in both the infield and outfield next season.
- Mariners: After acquiring a one-year stopgap in right field last offseason when they landed Teoscar Hernandez in a trade with the Blue Jays, Seattle figures to once again be in need of corner outfield help this offseason. While Julio Rodriguez has locked down center field and Jarred Kelenic showed enough positive signs this year to warrant a regular role in left, the Mariners’ options beyond that duo are few and far between, with the likes of Cade Marlowe, Sam Haggerty and Taylor Trammell among their best choices. Verdugo, much like Hernandez this season, would provide the club with a quality regular who can lock down a corner spot and allow the Mariners to focus on other areas this offseason.
- Yankees: As rare as trades between the longtime rivals once were, they’ve become more common in recent years, including a deal that sent Greg Allen to New York earlier this year and a trade that moved Adam Ottavino to Boston back in 2021. While a Verdugo deal would be more significant than either of those two trades, the Yankees are in clear need of both left-handed bats to balance their lineup and could use two outfield bats to pair with Aaron Judge, assuming the club doesn’t want to count on Giancarlo Stanton as an everyday outfielder. Verdugo would fill both of those needs without adding another long-term contract to a payroll in New York that features five guaranteed contracts that extend through 2026 or longer.
Next Tier Down:
- Guardians: The Guardians are well-established as a team in need of outfield help. Though Steven Kwan figures to remain entrenched in left field and Myles Straw is under contract in center long term, Ramon Laureano is a non-tender or trade candidate in right field and Straw could easily be pushed into a fourth outfielder role if Cleveland acquired an outfielder better suited to an everyday role. Verdugo would fit the club’s lineup nicely, taking over for Laureano in right field and offer a reliable bat to an outfield group that posted the second-worst wRC+ in the majors last year, 16% worse than league average. Unfortunately, the fit is less clean than it may appear, as Verdugo would immediately become the third highest-paid player on the club’s roster behind only Jose Ramirez and Shane Bieber. Given the Guardians typically run payrolls at or near the bottom of the league, the club may prefer to look for lower-cost fliers in free agency to boost their outfield production rather than spend both financial and prospect capital to bring in Verdugo.
- Marlins: Miami will see one of its best bats in Jorge Soler depart for free agency this offseason, leaving a clear hole in the lineup. While Soler was primarily used as a DH, the addition of Verdugo in the outfield would allow the club to platoon Bryan De La Cruz and Jesus Sanchez, opening up the DH spot for an additional bat to improve a lackluster Marlins offense. That being said, given the presence of De La Cruz, Sanchez, and Avisail Garcia on the roster, Miami might be better served focusing on upgrading at shortstop, where the club currently projects to utilize Jon Berti as an everyday option.
- Padres: The outfield in San Diego is currently well-stocked, with superstars Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the corners and Trent Grisham getting the lion’s share of playing time in center. With that being said, rumors have already begun to percolate this offseason that the Padres could look to move Soto in trade this offseason in hopes of cutting payroll. If the club does move on from Soto, that would create a hole in left field that Verdugo could slide into nicely. Verdugo projects to make almost $24MM less than Soto in 2024, and while his bat is not nearly as valuable as Soto’s he provides significantly more defensive value and is a clearly capable everyday player in left, which the Padres would lack without Soto on the team. Of course, if the team doesn’t move on from Soto this offseason, San Diego would no longer be a fit for Verdugo’s services.
Longer Shots:
- Blue Jays: With Kevin Kiermaier set to depart for free agency this offseason, the Blue Jays will be in need of an outfield bat to pair with George Springer and Daulton Varsho, even as the likes of Spencer Horwitz and Ernie Clement provide reasonable depth options. While Verdugo could certainly fill that role, Toronto may not want to commit to Varsho as the club’s regular center fielder, seeing as the 26-year-old has never started more than 50 games at the position in a season during his career. What’s more, after a disappointing offensive season from the club, it’s reasonable to think the Blue Jays may prefer to add a bat with a stronger offensive profile than Verdugo, who’s 112 wRC+ in 106 games with the Dodgers during the 2019 season represents his best full season offensively.
- Mets: After parting with Mark Canha and Tommy Pham at the trade deadline, the Mets have a clear opening in left field where Verdugo would represent a clear improvement over the club’s incumbent options. That being said, the rumors have indicated that the club may look to take a bit of a step back in 2024 after a difficult 2023 campaign, and the club has plenty of young players who could feasibly take a step forward with regular playing time in 2024 including Bretty Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Mark Vientos. An opening in the outfield would allow the Mets to provide more playing time to those players, whether by directly playing them in left or by moving multi-positional veteran Jeff McNeil to left, thereby opening up time on the infield dirt.
- Phillies: Whether the Phillies look to add a first baseman or outfielder this offseason could hinge on where Bryce Harper hopes to play in 2024, but in the event Harper spends next season at first base, Verdugo could provide the club with a quality defensive outfielder who would provide more certainty than relying on the likes of Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache to play alongside Brandon Marsh and Nick Castellanos. That being said, Verdugo’s lefty bat makes for an imperfect fit in a Philadelphia lineup that already features Harper, Marsh, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryson Stott, further complicating Verdugo’s fit with the Phillies.
- Pirates: While the Pirates lack an obvious starter in the outfield alongside Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski, the club figures to continue attempting to convert catcher Henry Davis to the outfield in 2024, likely filling the club’s outfield mix at least in the early part of the season. What’s more, the annual low budgets in Pittsburgh make a deal for Verdugo seem even more unlikely, as the club would presumably look to reunite with veteran outfielder and franchise legend Andrew McCutchen, who is set to hit free agency this offseason, if they were to dedicate resources to their outfield mix.