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Marlins Claim Seth Martinez

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The Marlins announced that they have claimed right-hander Seth Martinez off waivers from the Diamondbacks. The latter club had designated him for assignment earlier this week. To open a roster spot, the Marlins transferred right-hander Eury Pérez to the 60-day injured list. Pérez is recovering from Tommy John surgery and isn’t expected back until around the All-Star break.

It’s the second waiver claim of the offseason for the 30-year-old Martinez. The Astros put him on waivers at the start of November, just as the offseason was getting going. The Snakes claimed him and kept him for a few months, but he got nudged off their roster when they signed Kendall Graveman a few days ago.

His entire big league track record has been with the Astros thus far. That club added him to their roster late in 2021. He got a cup-of-coffee MLB debut that year, then spent the past three seasons as an up-and-down depth arm for Houston. From his initial selection to the 40-man until being put on waivers, the Astros optioned him 12 times.

In between those trips to Sugar Land, he threw 137 1/3 major league innings for the Astros, allowing 3.93 earned runs per nine. He struck out 20.7% of opponents and gave out walks 9.2% of the time, marks just a bit worse than league average.

His minor league numbers have been a bit more intriguing. He logged 105 innings on the farm over the past four years with a 2.66 ERA. His 10% walk rate in that sample was still a tad high but he paired it with a strong 31.5% strikeout rate.

However, he exhausted his final option year in 2024, meaning he could no longer be freely shuttled to Triple-A and back. That’s why he has twice been put on waivers in the past few months and why he has been claimed today.

The Astros and Diamondbacks are clubs with competitive aspirations, so keeping Martinez in a big league spot would be a bit more tricky. The Marlins should find it far easier, however. As part of their rebuild, they have aggressively sent out players with big league experience, with the bullpen being no exception. Tanner Scott, A.J. Puk, Bryan Hoeing, Huascar Brazobán and JT Chargois were traded at last year’s deadline. Anthony Bender is now the only reliever on the roster with even three years of big league experience.

Before this move, Andrew Nardi was the only other guy over the two-year service mark, but Martinez now joins him in that camp. Though he’s out of options, Martinez could hang onto a spot in Miami’s bullpen if he’s pitching semi-effectively, given the lack of proven options. Most of the other guys in the relief mix are optionable. He should get a chance to post numbers more in line with his minor league track record. If he holds a spot all season, he can theoretically be retained via arbitration through 2028.

Poll: Do The Mets Need Another Starter?

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The Mets undeniably made the single biggest splash of the entire winter when they brought superstar slugger Juan Soto into the fold on a record-shattering $765MM deal back in December. Along with the club’s reunion with Pete Alonso and some complementary additions like Jesse Winker and Jose Siri, the Mets’ offense appears to be in a very strong place as they look to build off their NLCS appearance last year.

The same cannot be said for the rotation. Despite rumors that connected the Mets to top starters on the trade market like Garrett Crochet and Dylan Cease (as well as plenty of early speculation about the Mets as potential suitors for Corbin Burnes and Max Fried), the club took a far more measured approach to its starting staff. With Kodai Senga and David Peterson already in the fold, the club reunited with southpaw Sean Manaea in free agency while bringing in Clay Holmes, Frankie Montas, and Griffin Canning to replace Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, and Joey Lucchesi on the depth chart.

It’s an interesting group of names, and it’s not hard to see the potential upside in those moves. Holmes becomes the latest well-regarded reliever to try his hand at starting, and success stories like Crochet, Seth Lugo, and Reynaldo Lopez offer a tantalizing glimpse at what Holmes could provide the Mets with should the move work out. Meanwhile, Montas was a well-regarded No. 2 starter as recently as three years ago, and Canning is just one year removed from being a solid back-of-the-rotation arm for the Angels.

Still, there’s plenty of very real risk involved with each of the club’s additions. Holmes could instead follow in the footsteps of less-successful rotation converts like Jordan Hicks or even A.J. Puk. Montas has struggled to stay healthy in recent years and struggled to remain effective even when he is on the mound, and Canning was arguably the single worst qualified starter in baseball last year. Even Manaea is coming off a career year that he may not be able to repeat in his age-33 season this year.

The question marks in the rotation came to a head earlier this week when it was revealed that Montas is currently suffering from a lat strain that was expected to shut him down for six to eight weeks. The veteran righty has since suggested that he’s set for just four to six weeks of no-throw, but that still suggests he may not have even begun throwing when Opening Day rolls around, at which point he’ll still need to make up for the lost preparation time caused by him missing a full spring training. It’s not at all unreasonable to suggest that the Mets will be without Montas until sometime in May. If they still intend to use a six-man rotation, that would likely mean that Senga, Manaea, Peterson, and Holmes will be joined by Canning and Paul Blackburn.

Naturally, questions have arisen about whether the club should make another addition. (MLBTR’s Steve Adams argued that the Mets hadn’t done enough with the rotation even before news of Montas’ injury.) A number of veteran starters are still available in free agency, including four who made MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list at the outset of the offseason. A recent MLBTR Poll suggested that fans views Quintana as the best of those remaining arms, though the Mets have not been involved in his market despite interest in a reunion from the veteran southpaw’s side.

Even if the Mets aren’t enamored with the possibility of a Quintana reunion, both Andrew Heaney and Spencer Turnbull are still available and could be used either in the rotation or out of the bullpen depending on the club’s needs, affording the Mets flexibility when Montas returns. Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn are among the other veteran arms still available in free agency.

On the other hand, it’s worth noting that the club’s rotation already runs six names deep even without Montas. Neither Canning nor Blackburn can be optioned — both have five-plus years of service — but righties Tylor Megill and Justin Hagenman are both on the 40-man roster and likely ticketed for Triple-A to begin the season. Top prospect Brandon Sproat will likely make his debut at some point in 2025 as well.

If the Mets don’t add anyone right now, they could look for rotation help closer to the trade deadline if it proves necessary. That would allow them to find out more about their offseason rolls of the dice on guys like Montas and Canning before deciding if they need another arm. There will also likely be a larger supply of arms available in July, as the number of sellers will increase relative to spring training, where optimism abounds throughout the league. Perhaps the risk of having to surrender an exciting young piece from their farm system to add an arm this summer makes adding depth now for nothing but money a more attractive option. Each side has its pros and cons.

Where do MLBTR readers stand on the issue? Are the Mets too light on talent in the rotation to compete with the Braves and Phillies for the NL East crown this year without another arm? Or should they stick with their internal options to open the season and reassess their starting depth at the trade deadline this summer? Have your say in the poll below:

Fantasy Baseball: Regression Is A Cruel Mistress

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Hello friends.

The Gauts remain buried in Midwest snow and single-digit temps, but the good news is I've become super proficient in virtual learning/hiding from my kids to sneak away to write fantasy nerd stuff. They always find me, though...Always.

Regardless, let me warm up my fantasy soul with some regression-fueled hate. Wait! Hold on; just wait. I know "regression" can be a dirty word for some, as it's too often used as a crutch to explain both the good and the bad. Its disciples can go too heavy with their reliance while the detractors get set against all things analytical and too often throw out all the good with the bad.

Like most things, an extreme path is rarely best. Regression can be good and regression can be bad; it's all relative, baby. Just like we shouldn't assume that a 3.00 xFIP will translate to a 3.00 ERA in the future, we also shouldn't assume a 4.00 xFIP will equal a 4.00 ERA.

No individual number tells the whole story in baseball, but they can serve as markers, good or bad, pointing out areas that may warrant further examination. And while one bad flag doesn't necessarily mean disaster, worry should pile up as the number of red flags mounts.

Let's look at three starters who were excellent last season but have more red flags than a Turkish semaphore team. That's right -- a flag-signaling joke. Deal with it.

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Red Sox, Matt Moore Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox have agreed to a minor league contract with left-hander Matt Moore, reports Rob Bradford of WEEI. He’ll presumably head to big league camp for the remainder of spring training.

Moore, 36, has spent the bulk of the past two seasons with the Angels. He made a couple of quick pit stops in Cleveland and Miami following the Angels’ Aug. 2023 mass waiver purge, but more than 90% of his appearances since 2023 have come in a Halos uniform.

Once ranked among the game’s top three prospects alongside Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, Moore had a nice start to his career but never got fully back on track following 2014 Tommy John surgery. He got back up 198 innings of 4.08 ERA ball in 2016 but wasn’t the borderline ace-caliber pitcher he looked to be when first breaking into the majors.

Moore struggled with the Giants and Rangers in 2017-18 and then missed nearly all of the 2019 season with the Tigers after suffering a knee injury in just his second start of the season. A nice 2020 run in Japan led to a 2021 deal with the Phillies, but Moore again struggled as a starter and was moved to a swing role.

Returning to the Rangers on a minor league deal in 2022, Moore found new life and a second act in his career upon a full-time shift to short relief. He pitched 74 innings of 1.95 ERA ball that season, parlaying that rebound effort into successive one-year deals in Anaheim.

The first of those two seasons was better than the second. Moore’s 2024 results (5.03 ERA in 48 1/3 innings) are skewed by a pair of disastrous outings; he combined to yield nine runs (one-third of his season-long total) in just one inning of work during those two appearances. Moore also saw a dip in average fastball velocity in 2024, falling from 94 mph to 92.7 mph. That lost velocity and his late struggles with command could be attributable to the forearm strain that ended his season in August, however.

Generally speaking, Moore has been a quality arm for the bulk of the past three seasons. During that time, he’s tossed 175 innings of 2.98 ERA ball and fanned one quarter of his opponents while issuing walks at a 10.8% clip. Moore has worked primarily in high-leverage settings, coming away with 46 holds and six saves. He’s been placed in position to pick up a hold or save 57 times over the past three seasons and succeeded doing so in 52 of those opportunities.

As it stands, the Red Sox project to have two lefties in Alex Cora’s bullpen: Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson. Both signed guaranteed one-year deals in free agency earlier this winter. Lefties Zach Penrod and Brennan Bernardino are both on the 40-man roster as well, but there’s an injury scare with regard to the former at the moment. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo reports that Penrod has been dealing with elbow soreness and is headed for an MRI. There’s some concern, and Cora suggested when talking about Penrod’s outlook that the team was looking at bringing another lefty into the mix. That’ll be Moore.

Moore joins a list of experienced non-roster relievers trying to win a spot in the ’pen. He’s the second notable name to sign such a pact this week. The Sox inked righty Adam Ottavino on Tuesday. Righties Michael Fulmer, Austin Adams, Isaiah Campbell and Wyatt Mills are all non-roster invitees in camp with Boston, as are lefties Sean Newcomb and Jovani Moran.

By definition, Moore is an Article XX(b) free agent — which is to say he has six-plus years of major league service time and finished out the prior season on a major league roster or 60-day injured list. Under the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement, Article XX(b) free agents who sign minor league deals are granted uniform opt-out dates. Those opt-out opportunities will come five days before Opening Day (March 22, in this case) and then on May 1 and June 1. Moore will have the ability to elect free agency on each of those dates if he has not been added to the Red Sox’ 40-man roster.

Blue Jays’ Adam Macko Undergoes Meniscus Surgery

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Feb. 20: Macko underwent arthroscopic knee surgery this morning, manager John Schneider announced to the Jays’ beat (via Shi Davidi of SportsNet). The team is not yet putting forth a formal timetable on his expected recovery.

Feb. 17: Blue Jays pitching prospect Adam Macko is likely headed for surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his left knee, manager John Schneider told reporters (including Hazel Mae). The 24-year-old southpaw came out of a recent bullpen session with knee discomfort.

Macko has been on Toronto’s 40-man roster for the past year. The Jays acquired the former seventh-round pick from the Mariners in the Teoscar Hernández trade. Toronto selected his contract last offseason so as not to lose him in the Rule 5 draft. He spent most of the ’24 season at Double-A New Hampshire. Macko posted a 4.87 ERA across 87 1/3 innings. His 26.4% strikeout rate and tolerable 8.8% walk percentage were more impressive than the run prevention mark.

The Jays promoted Macko to Triple-A at the end of last season. He only pitched three innings there and is likely headed back to begin this season. He should be in the mix for a major league call midseason, though this could set his promotion timetable back. A meniscus repair is unlikely to cost him the whole year but would certainly call for a season-opening injured list stint.

Toronto could eventually place Macko on the 60-day injured list if they want to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Doing so would start his service clock and require paying him a prorated $760K major league minimum salary for however long he was on the IL.

Cubs Designate Alexander Canario For Assignment

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The Cubs are designating outfielder Alexander Canario for assignment in order to open a roster spot for Justin Turner, reports ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. Canario is out of minor league options and would’ve either needed to break camp with the team or else be designated for assignment (and subsequently waived or traded) at the end of spring training.

Canario, 25 in May, came to the Cubs alongside righty Caleb Kilian in the 2021 deadline swap that sent Kris Bryant to San Francisco. At the time, Canario was considered among the Giants’ ten or so top prospects due in large part to his plus raw power. Just 21 years old and in Low-A at the time of the trade, he’d undergone shoulder surgery to repair a labrum tear the year prior. His 2021 season produced sub-par results, but that’s not a surprise for a player trying to get back into the swing of things following a canceled 2020 campaign and a notable surgery.

Subsequent seasons have yielded better results at the plate but ongoing questions about Canario’s hit tool, approach at the plate and ability to stay on the field. He crushed 37 home runs while batting .252/.343/.556 across three minor league levels in 2022. He was limited to 59 games in 2023 — including a brief six-game MLB debut — when an ankle injury and further shoulder troubles slowed him. Canario popped 18 homers in 64 Triple-A games in 2024 and logged a .280/.357/.443 line in 28 big league plate appearances.

Even beyond the durability concerns, Canario’s performance in the upper minors gives reason for pause. His surface-level stats, particularly his power output, look quite appealing. He hit .248/.329/.552 with 24 homers in just 350 Double-A plate appearances and .252/.345/.521 with 32 homers in only 528 Triple-A plate appearances. However, Canario fanned at a 26% clip in Double-A and a 28.9% clip in Triple-A.

Canario’s strikeout troubles have actually risen even as his time in Triple-A has progressed. He fanned at a 25% rate in his first 20 games there back in 2022 but saw that number rise to 28% in 36 games in 2023 and a huge 30.4% in 64 games last year. He’s only taken 45 MLB plate appearances but has punched out in 42.2% of them (19 times). The 63.5% contact rate Canario posted in Triple-A last year would’ve ranked dead-last among qualified big league hitters by a margin of more than two percentage points. In his 45 MLB plate appearances, he’s made contact on only 59.8% of his swings.

Defensively, Canario is limited to a corner and is not regarded as a plus defender — despite having a plus arm. He’s a slightly below-average runner who lacks the range for center field. That profile, paired with his plus raw power and notable platoon splits, has prompted scouting reports at Baseball America, FanGraphs and other outlets to project him on the short side of a right field platoon in the majors.

At this point, Canario had presumably fallen to no better than sixth or seventh on the Cubs’ outfield depth chart. Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker form the starting trio, with Seiya Suzuki slotted for regular DH work and occasional corner duties. Kevin Alcantara is on the cusp of MLB readiness and is younger with better defense, multiple minor league options remaining and a vastly higher ceiling overall. Fellow top prospect Owen Caissie is also on the 40-man roster and had surely leapfrogged Canario as well.

Given his huge raw power, Canario could very well end up with another club by way of a small trade or waiver claim. But Canario’s prodigious swing-and-miss rates, broad-reaching susceptibility to breaking pitches and minimal defensive upside all combine to make him less appealing to big league clubs than some might expect when looking at his surface-level numbers. Former Cardinals outfield prospect Moises Gomez found himself in a similar spot last spring and went unclaimed on waivers.

Canario’s DFA window will last for one week, but if the Cubs are to trade him, they’ll need to do so within five days. Outright waivers are a 48-hour process, so if Canario isn’t traded within five days’ time, he’ll head to the waiver wire.

The Opener: Spring Training, Athletics, Cubs

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As Spring Training continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Spring Training games begin:

Today marks the first Spring Training game of the year, as the Cubs and Dodgers face off at the latter’s spring home of Camelback Ranch. Chicago and L.A. are getting an earlier start than the rest of the league thanks to their early start to the regular season in Tokyo, which is now less than a month away. The Dodgers are sending right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the mound for the spring opener, while the Cubs will counter with righty Cody Poteet. The Dodgers haven’t revealed who else they intend to pitch in the game beyond Yamamoto, but MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian and Sonja Chen report that non-roster veterans Brad Keller and Brooks Kriske will pitch for Chicago today, as well as youngsters Daniel Palencia and Jack Neely.

2. Extensions coming down the pipe for the A’s?

The Athletics are a team without a permanent home for the time being, but that isn’t stopping them from locking up multi-year talent. After adding Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs to the rotation this offseason, the club extended star DH Brent Rooker with a five-year deal. Now that spring training has begun and the club’s roster is mostly set, the A’s have turned their attention to potentially working out extensions with more pieces of their young core. That reportedly includes outfielder Lawrence Butler, but GM David Forst indicated that the club is talking to other young players as well without naming specific names. Closer Mason Miller, outfielder JJ Bleday, and catcher Shea Langeliers are among the club’s other players who could make some sense as extension targets.

3. Cubs roster move expected:

The Cubs are known to be in agreement with veteran infielder/DH Justin Turner on a contract, and the 40-year-old veteran was reportedly in camp with Chicago yesterday getting his spring work started. That surely means that a formal announcement of Turner’s signing with the team is imminent, but one obstacle remains before the deal can be made official. Chicago’s 40-man roster is full, meaning that the Cubs will need to make room for Turner with a corresponding move in order to officially bring him into the fold. The club has no obvious contenders for a trip to the 60-day injured list, so that will mean either designating a player for assignment or perhaps working out a trade that clears a 40-man roster spot.

MLB Mailbag: Devers, Vlad, Rizzo, Mets, Phillies, Sean Murphy

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This week's mailbag covers the Rafael Devers situation, potential Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scenarios, fits for Anthony Rizzo, whether the Braves should've traded Sean Murphy, and questions involving the Mets and Phillies.

Clarke asks:

Devers says 3B is his, Story is at SS, Campbell at 2B and Casas says he's at first and Bregman is at 2B and to heck with the kids. Meanwhile, Yoshida insists he's ready to DH and play outfield. Sounds like an accident waiting to happen. What say you?

Elden asks:

What would be the outcome of a player refusing to accept an assignment decision made by the club management? ex: Devers refusing to give up 3B or Stroman refusing to work out of the bullpen. Would it be grounds to void a contract? suspension? other remedies?

It's a mess, and it's why I didn't think Bregman was a good fit for the Red Sox.  Here's a potential 2025 plan:

I think there's a fair chance Bregman misses 20 or so games due to injury.  Third base would well-covered in that case with Devers, perhaps Campbell in a pinch, and maybe Marcelo Mayer when he's ready.

Story is 32 and hasn't topped 94 games in a season since 2021, so the Red Sox may need to cover 40+ games at shortstop.  He could be backed up by Mayer, Campbell, or even Bregman.

If Campbell falters as a rookie, various options open up for Alex Cora given that the team still has a bunch of other second base possibilities beyond Bregman.

There's a pretty good chance Casas misses 20+ games due to injury.  It makes tons of sense for Devers to work at first base in spring training, as he could get 40+ games as an infield corner backup even if Bregman and Casas are the starters.

A lot of different injury scenarios push Yoshida into more playing time, though Cora will probably want to sit him for Rob Refsnyder against most lefties.  Wilyer Abreu needs a platoon partner as well.

What about a scenario where everyone is healthy and the younger players are hitting to their projections?

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MLBTR Podcast: Alex Bregman, The Padres Add Players, And No Extension For Vlad Jr.

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • The Twins had a quiet offseason but projection systems have them winning the division. Are they the best team in the AL Central? (38:25)
  • Why did the Giants have a quiet offseason apart from Willy Adames and Justin Verlander? Was it ownership reluctance or Buster Posey’s conservative stance? (42:25)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

What Might It Cost To Extend Brenton Doyle?

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Brenton Doyle has been one of the brightest spots amidst a terrible two-year run for the Rockies. The former fourth-round pick has emerged as a quality everyday center fielder. Doyle has won Gold Gloves in each of his first two MLB seasons. The defense was the only value he provided as a rookie, as he was arguably the league's worst regular hitter in 2023. He took a huge step forward in his sophomore season to break out as a quality all-around contributor.

Doyle hit .260/.317/.446 with 23 home runs across 603 plate appearances last season. That's essentially league average offense according to park-adjusted metrics that account for Coors Field. That's a major leap from his .203/.250/.343 showing as a rookie. Doyle would be an All-Star caliber player if he can simply maintain league average production at the plate. He leads all outfielders in Statcast's Outs Above Average since making his debut. Only Daulton Varsho has more Defensive Runs Saved. Doyle is probably a top three defensive outfielder in the game. He went 30-35 on stolen base attempts last year.

Last season's offensive strides came with a real change in process. The right-handed hitter had a markedly improved plate discipline profile. He cut his strikeout rate by almost 10 percentage points. After fanning 35% of the time during his rookie season, he struck out at a 25.4% clip last year. He chased fewer pitches off the plate and increased his walk rate by a couple points. Among players with 400+ plate appearances in each season, only Red Sox's catcher Connor Wong had a bigger improvement in his strikeout rate. No one took a more significant step forward than Doyle in making contact on a per-pitch basis.

That presents an interesting evaluation. The bullish case is that it demonstrates Doyle's capacity to make offensive adjustments, perhaps hinting at an even higher ceiling as he enters his third season against big league pitching. On the other hand, it's fair to wonder if last year's improvement is entirely sustainable. Players don't always progress linearly. Doyle's numbers tailed off in the second half, especially in September. He still made far more contact late last season than he had as a rookie, but his .234/.274/.407 line coming out of the All-Star Break is far below the .276/.343/.471 mark he carried into it.

Even amidst their rebuild, the Rockies have prioritized locking up players they consider key pieces. They've had mixed results on that front. The Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland extensions haven't panned out. Ryan McMahon's production has been up-and-down. Last spring's $63MM investment in Ezequiel Tovar looks like the best of the bunch, as the 23-year-old shortstop had a strong second full season in the majors.

Is Doyle next in line? Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post wrote a couple weeks ago that Colorado has had some internal conversations about the possibility. What kind of prices could the team and Doyle's camp at the Ballengee Group discuss?

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