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Nationals, Tanner Rainey Avoid Arbitration

By Darragh McDonald | December 20, 2022 at 3:47pm CDT

3:47pm: Rainey’s deal is worth $1.5MM, per Andrew Golden of The Washington Post.

3:45pm: The Nationals announced that they have agreed to terms on a one-year major league contract with right-hander Tanner Rainey, avoiding arbitration. The financial elements of the deal have not been reported yet.

Rainey, who turns 30 this weekend, was acquired from the Reds prior to the 2019 season and has since established himself as one of the club’s better relievers. Over the past four seasons, he’s made 139 appearances with a 4.42 ERA, though that number is inflated by a ghastly 7.39 showing in 2021. He’s kept his ERA under 4.00 in the other three seasons of that timeframe. He has walked 14.6% of batters faced over those four seasons, which is certainly quite high, but he’s also struck out an excellent 32.4% of them.

Rainey was showing positive signs in the control department in 2022, as his walk rate was down to 10.2%, his lowest such mark in a full season. Unfortunately, his progress was halted by a UCL sprain this summer, which led to Tommy John surgery in August. He will therefore miss most or perhaps even all of the 2023 season while rehabbing.

Rainey first reached arbitration eligibility one year ago as a Super Two player. He and the Nats agreed to a salary of $860K for 2022. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a raise to $1.5MM in his second of four arbitration years. Though it’s possible he’ll miss the majority of the next season, the Nats will be able to retain him via arbitration for two seasons after that.

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Nationals Sign Erasmo Ramirez To One-Year Deal

By Steve Adams | December 20, 2022 at 3:46pm CDT

December 20: The Nats have made it official, announcing the deal today. Ramirez will earn a base salary of $1MM, reports Andrew Golden of The Washington Post, though there are a further $1MM in incentives available.

December 15: The Nationals and free-agent righty Erasmo Ramirez are working to finalize a one-year, Major League contract, tweets Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the talks and indicated that Ramirez’s contract will contain bonuses that can push his salary north of $2MM, suggesting that the base salary is a ways south of that sum. Ramirez is represented by Mato Sports Management.

The well-traveled Ramirez has bounced around the league in journeyman fashion over the past half decade but will now spend consecutive seasons with the same team for the first time since 2017-18. Ramirez originally joined the Nationals, his fifth team in five years, on a minor league deal last March but quickly emerged as an important long reliever just a few weeks into the season. The veteran righty appeared in 60 games for Washington, tallying 86 1/3 innings of 2.92 ERA ball. His outings were regularly in low-leverage, long relief situations — often with the games already out of hand — but Ramirez’s results were still strong.

Last year’s 93.9 mph average fastball was a career-best mark for the 32-year-old Ramirez, as was his minimal 4.0% walk rate. The increased velocity and improve command still only resulted in a below-average 17.6% strikeout rate, but Ramirez kept the ball in the yard for the most part (1.15 HR/9) and did a decent job avoiding hard contact (88.7 mph exit velocity, 4.9% barrel rate, 35.7% hard-hit rate). For a journeyman addition on a minor league contract, the Ramirez deal worked out about as well as the Nationals could’ve realistically hoped.

He’ll now return to a bullpen that was quietly a solid group for Washington in 2022, ranking 15th in the Majors with a 3.84 ERA. Ramirez won’t supplant any of Kyle Finnegan, Carl Edwards Jr., Hunter Harvey or top Rule 5 Draft pick Thad Ward in Dave Martinez’s bullpen, but there are enough journeymen and unproven options that it shouldn’t be that difficult to clear out a spot in the ’pen. The Nats will have to make a corresponding 40-man move to accommodate Ramirez’s return.

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Nationals Designate Gerardo Carrillo, Outright Lucius Fox

By Darragh McDonald | December 20, 2022 at 3:25pm CDT

The Nationals have made their signing of right-hander Erasmo Ramirez official, announcing the move today. In a corresponding move, fellow righty Gerardo Carrillo was designated for assignment. Additionally, infielder Lucius Fox cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A.

Carrillo, 24, began his professional career with the Dodgers but went to the Nats as part of the blockbuster deal that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers at the trade deadline in 2021. Prior to the deal, he had been placed at the back end of Baseball America’s list of top 30 Dodger prospects for three straight years beginning in 2019. He had showed enough promise that the Dodgers added him to their 40-man roster after the 2020 season.

The major knock on Carrillo has been his lack of control and that has continued to be true after moving to his new organization. He has yet to reach Triple-A but has double-digit walk rates at High-A and Double-A. In 2022, he made a few appearances in April but went on the injured list and didn’t return until July. That limited him to just 21 appearances on the season as a whole, including a rehab assignment, with Carrillo posting a 6.94 ERA in that time. He struck out a solid 24.3% of batters faced but walked 11.3% of them. The Nats will now have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers.

As for Fox, 25, he was once a well-regarded glove-first prospect with the Giants but his power hasn’t developed as hoped. He was traded to the Rays and Royals, subsequently going to the Orioles and Nationals on waiver claims. He made his MLB debut in 2022 but hit just .080/.115/.080 in 28 trips to the plate. In 216 minor league plate appearances for the year, he hit .241/.321/.352 for a wRC+ of 81. He was designated for assignment last week but will now stick with the organization without occupying a roster spot.

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Transactions Washington Nationals Erasmo Ramirez Gerardo Carrillo Lucius Fox

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Pirates Sign Austin Hedges

By Mark Polishuk | December 20, 2022 at 2:05pm CDT

December 20: The Pirates have officially announced the signing.

December 17: The Pirates have agreed to a one-year deal with free agent catcher Austin Hedges, according to The New York Post’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  Hedges, a client of the Boras Corporation, will receive $5MM.

Catcher was a position of need for the Bucs this winter, and they’ve now reinforced things behind the plate in re-signing Tyler Heineman to a minors deal yesterday, and now landing Hedges for what will likely be the bulk of the playing time.  Jason Delay or possibly Endy Rodriguez (the only other catcher on Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster) could also compete with Heineman for the backup job, and it’s possible former first overall pick Henry Davis might get his first taste of the majors in 2023.  Davis made his Double-A debut with 31 games last season and will move onto Triple-A this coming year, but the Pirates are naturally not going to do anything to rush one of their top prospects.

Last offseason, the Pirates signed Roberto Perez to a one-year, $5MM deal, only to have Perez’s season ended by hamstring surgery after only 21 games.  Now, the Bucs have signed Perez’s former Cleveland teammate Hedges to another $5MM pact in order to again add some veteran stability to the catching position.

Hedges came to the Guardians as part of the big nine-player swap between Cleveland and San Diego at the 2020 trade deadline, and immediately joined forces with Perez as the team’s regular catching tandem.  The Guardians have long focused on defense over offense from the catcher’s spot, with Hedges in particular reflecting that tactic.  Since Hedges debuted in the majors in 2015, his 54 wRC+ is the lowest of any player in baseball (minimum 2000 plate appearances).

With the glove, however, Hedges is one of baseball’s best.  He rates a +75 from the Defensive Runs Saved metric, and both Fangraphs and Statcast have considered him an elite-level pitch-framer as recently as 2019, though his framing numbers are more above-average over the last three seasons than at the very top of the class.  Hedges has thrown out 102 of the 338 (30.18%) baserunners who have attempted to steal on him during his career.

Hedges will look to continue this work with a Pirates rotation that is still relatively short on MLB experience, though Pittsburgh just added a more veteran arm in Vince Velasquez.  The Pirates have been actively picking up lower-cost veteran talent this offseason, signing Hedges, Velasquez, Carlos Santana, and Jarlin Garcia to one-year deals in free agency, while also picking up Ji-Man Choi in a trade from the Rays.

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Padres Sign Matt Carpenter

By Steve Adams | December 20, 2022 at 2:00pm CDT

2:00pm: The Padres have officially announced the signing.

12:52pm: The Padres added some punch to their lineup Tuesday, reportedly agreeing to a two-year, $12MM contract with veteran infielder/outfielder Matt Carpenter. Carpenter, a client of SSG Baseball, can opt out of the contract after the 2023 season by declining a 2024 player option. The contract pays Carpenter a $3MM signing bonus and $3.5MM salary for the 2023 campaign, and he’ll have to decide on a $5.5MM player option next winter. He can also reportedly earn $500K bonuses for reaching each of 300, 350, 400, 450, 500 and 550 plate appearances in both seasons of the contract.

Carpenter, who turned 37 years old last month, enjoyed one of the more remarkable rebound campaigns in recent memory this past season. A three-time All-Star with the Cardinals, Carpenter looked to be on the downswing when he posted a combined .176/.313/.291 batting line in 418 plate appearances with St. Louis from 2020-21.

Last offseason, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic detailed the manner in which Carpenter reinvented himself, taking a data-driven approach to hitting and enlisting feedback from the likes of Joey Votto, Matt Holliday and a private hitting coach as he revamped his swing and his entire approach at the plate. The Rangers were intrigued enough to sign him to a minor league contract.

We often see stories of veterans making changes late in their careers, but few have found the level of success enjoyed by Carpenter. After hitting .275/.379/.613 in 21 games with the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate, Carpenter was released by Texas (oops) and signed a Major League deal with the Yankees, for whom he posted a borderline comical .305/.412/.727 slash. Carpenter mashed 15 home runs in just 154 plate appearances, and while he was surely aided to an extent by the dimensions of Yankee Stadium, he still popped six of those round-trippers and batted .253/.333/.506 on the road.

Simply put — and in rather stunning fashion — Carpenter was baseball’s best hitter on a rate basis in 2022 (min. 100 plate appearances). He led all of baseball in slugging percentage, isolated power (slugging minus batting average) and wRC+ (217), ranked second to only Aaron Judge in terms of on-base percentage, and posted the 12th-best batting average of any player in the game. Carpenter’s rate of “barreled” balls (as defined by Statcast) was elite, and his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate both clocked in comfortably north of the league average. There’s no realistic way to expect him to sustain that pace, but Carpenter has clearly put himself back on the map as a viable big league slugger.

Unfortunately for both team and player, the revitalized Carpenter fouled a ball into his foot in early August, resulting in a fracture that wiped out the remainder of his regular season. A predictably rusty Carpenter jumped directly back onto the Yankees’ playoff roster but went just 1-for-12 with an alarming nine strikeouts between the ALDS and the ALCS.

With the Padres, Carpenter becomes the favorite for DH work, though the Yankees played him at both corner infield slots and in both corner outfield positions in 2022. He’s also logged more than 1900 innings at second base in his career, though defensive metrics on his limited work there in 2021 were unsightly, to say the least. Still, he could potentially serve as an option there in an emergency.

The agreement with Carpenter pushes the Padres to more than $246MM in actual cash payroll for the 2023 season and bumps their luxury-tax ledger to nearly $267MM, as projected by Roster Resource. The Padres are already well into the second tier of penalization and, given that they’re entering their third straight season over the luxury line, are being taxed at a 62% rate on every dollar in the second bracket ($253MM to $273MM). As such, Carpenter will cost them an additional $3.72MM in taxes for the 2023 campaign.

AJ Cassavell of MLB.com first reported the two sides had agreed to a deal with a 2024 player option. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the terms and financial details (Twitter links).

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Tigers Sign Michael Lorenzen

By Anthony Franco | December 20, 2022 at 1:30pm CDT

December 20: The Tigers have officially announced the signing.

December 14: The Tigers are reportedly in agreement with free agent starter Michael Lorenzen. It’s a one-year, $8.5MM guarantee for the CAA Sports client. The deal, which is pending a physical, also contains $1.5MM in possible incentives.

Lorenzen spent one season in Orange County. Primarily a reliever over seven years with the Reds, he hit the open market for the first time last offseason in search of a rotation opportunity. Lorenzen inked a one-year, $6.75MM pact with the Halos. It was a homecoming for the Anaheim native and Cal State Fullerton product. The season didn’t go entirely as planned, though, as he lost a couple months after suffering a shoulder strain in early July.

The right-hander returned late in the season, making five starts to close out the year. He worked five-plus innings while allowing three or fewer runs in each, finishing his year on a high note despite the Angels being well out of contention. On the season, Lorenzen made 18 starts and tallied 97 2/3 innings — a bit more than 5 1/3 frames per appearance. He pitched to a decent 4.24 ERA while inducing grounders on just over half the batted balls he allowed.

It was a fairly encouraging showing, although Lorenzen’s strikeout and walk marks were a bit worse than average. His 20.7% strikeout rate was a touch below the 21.6% league mark for starters. More concerning was a 10.7% walk percentage that was more than three points higher than average. Of the 153 starters with 70+ innings pitched, only six doled out free passes more frequently than Lorenzen.

Despite his inconsistent strike-throwing, Lorenzen showed enough to intrigue the Tigers to give him a second rotation shot. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that Detroit plans to use him as a starter. He becomes the second roll of the dice for first-year president of baseball operations Scott Harris and his front office. The Tigers reunited with lefty Matt Boyd on a $10MM guarantee this month, giving him a chance to right the ship after losing much of the 2022 campaign to recovery from flexor surgery.

There are certainly reasons for optimism the 30-year-old Lorenzen (31 next month) could offer solid production out of the rotation. He has a deep arsenal, relying on each of his four-seam, sinker, changeup and slider more than 20% of the time and turning to a cutter for around 10% of his offerings in 2022. His changeup generated plenty of swinging strikes and his sinker was effective both as a swing-and-miss and ground-ball offering.

Lorenzen’s well-rounded arsenal helped him limit opponents to a meager .181/.272/.278 line during their third time through the order this past season, albeit with a fairly modest 17.3% strikeout rate. From a platoon perspective, Lorenzen had similar strikeout rates and plus ground-ball numbers against hitters of either handedness. He nibbled around the strike zone far too often against southpaws, however, walking 14.4% of the left-handed batters he faced.

Boyd and Lorenzen join Eduardo Rodríguez, Matt Manning and Spencer Turnbull in the anticipated season-opening rotation. Tarik Skubal will join the group once healthy, though he’s expected to miss some time after undergoing flexor surgery in August. Joey Wentz, Beau Brieske and Alex Faedo are on hand to compete for depth roles behind that group, while Casey Mize is expected to miss most or all of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last summer.

There’s substantial upside but also plenty of risk. Turnbull missed all of 2022 recovering from his own TJ procedure. Lorenzen, Boyd, Manning and Rodríguez lost huge stretches of the year, and Lorenzen hasn’t topped 20 starts since his 2015 rookie campaign in Cincinnati. It’s possible the Tigers look for another arm to add some stable innings to the mix, but the acquisitions of Boyd and Lorenzen suggest Harris’ staff prioritized upside over floor in their rotation pickups. That’s a sensible approach, as Detroit faces an uphill path to contention in 2023. If Boyd and/or Lorenzen can stay healthy and pitch well in the season’s first half, they’d likely be more desirable trade targets to a contender than a lower-upside innings eater would be.

With Lorenzen on the books, Detroit’s 2023 projected player payroll now sits around $124MM at Roster Resource. That’s still below this past season’s $135MM Opening Day mark, so the front office should have the freedom to identify a few more lower-cost targets of interest. Adding at catcher, third base and in the corner outfield could all be under consideration after the Tigers hit a woeful .231/.286/.346 this year.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Tigers were in agreement with Lorenzen. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic was first to report it was a one-year, $8.5MM guarantee with $1.5MM in performance incentives.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Detroit Tigers Newsstand Transactions Michael Lorenzen

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Twins Designate Mark Contreras For Assignment

By Darragh McDonald | December 20, 2022 at 1:10pm CDT

The Twins have made their signing of outfielder Joey Gallo official, announcing the move today. To make room for him on the 40-man roster, outfielder Mark Contreras was designated for assignment.

Contreras, 28 in January, has been with the Twins for his entire career so far, having been selected by them in the ninth round of the 2017 draft. He didn’t hit too much in the lower levels but he pushed himself up the ladder with his ability to play all three outfield positions and steal some bases.

Offensively, he seemed to take a step forward when reaching the upper levels, after the minors were cancelled by the pandemic in 2020. Splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A in 2021, he hit 20 home runs in 114 games and produced a batting line of .251/.338/.485 for a wRC+ of 117. His 29.6% strikeout rate was certainly on the high side but he also walked in 9.1% of his plate appearances.

In 2022, the Twins dealt with a large number of injuries and had to lean hard on their depth. Contreras got selected to the club’s roster in May and was frequently optioned and recalled throughout the year. He generally seemed overmatched in his first chances against MLB pitching, slashing .121/.148/.293 in 61 plate appearances. In 102 Triple-A games on the year, he hit .237/.317/.418 for a wRC+ of 94. He hit 15 home runs and stole 23 bases but also struck out in 29.6% of his trips to the plate.

Contreras certainly has concerns on his track record, especially with the strikeouts, having never posted a rate lower than 23.7% at any stop in the professional ranks. However, there are reasons to think he could garner interest from other clubs around the league. For one thing, he still has a couple of option years, meaning he can be stashed in the minors as depth. He also has some intriguing tools, especially outside of the batter’s box. All three of Outs Above Average, Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating gave him a positive grade for his outfield work this year. Statcast also ranks him in the 90th percentile in terms of arm strength and the 80th in terms of sprint speed.

In terms of his work at the plate, while he didn’t connect much, he did do some noticeable damage when he did. Statcast ranked him in the 56th percentile in terms of maximum exit velocity and he somehow tops the leaderboard in terms of barrels per plate appearance, minimum of 25 batted ball events, just ahead of Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez and Mike Trout. That’s a tiny sample but an interesting one nonetheless. With so many teams looking for left-handed hitting outfielders, he’s sure to draw some interest, just based on his speed and defense alone. If there’s some sneaky power in there as well, that’ll only make him more attractive. The Twins will now have one week to trade him or pass him through waivers.

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Minnesota Twins Transactions Joey Gallo Mark Contreras

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MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Steve Adams | December 20, 2022 at 1:01pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.

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MLBTR Chats

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Twins Sign Joey Gallo To One-Year Deal

By Darragh McDonald | December 20, 2022 at 12:30pm CDT

December 20: The Twins have officially announced Gallo’s signing.

December 16: The Twins are reportedly in agreement with outfielder Joey Gallo on a one-year deal that will pay him $11MM. The two-time All-Star is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Gallo, 29, has occasionally been one of the most fearsome sluggers in the league but is coming off a rough stretch. With the Rangers from 2017 to 2019, he was the poster boy for the three true outcomes: home run, strikeout and walk. In that three-year stretch, he struck out in 36.8% of his plate appearances while the league averages in that time hovered around 22%. His 14.3% walk rate was well beyond the 8.5% league average in that time. He also launched 103 home runs over that stretch, leading to a batting line of .217/.336/.533. Despite the huge punch-out totals, that production was 20% above league average, as evidenced by his 120 wRC+.

The seasons since haven’t been quite as smooth, however. In the shortened 2020 season, Gallo hit .181/.301/.378 for a wRC+ of 86. He seemed to bounce back in the first half of 2021, as he was sitting on a line of .223/.379/.490 for a wRC+ of 138 when the Rangers traded him to the Yankees. Unfortunately, he swooned in the Bronx, hitting .160/.303/.404 after the deal, 95 wRC+. He couldn’t quite correct course this year, as his first 82 games led to a .159/.282/.339 line and 82 wRC+ before the Yanks flipped him to the Dodgers at the deadline. The move to Hollywood didn’t change much, as he hit .162/.277/.393 as a Dodger for a wRC+ of 91.

Though those sub-Mendoza batting averages are certainly unpleasant to the eye, there’s plenty of reason to think he could get the train back on the tracks. For one thing, he’s still young, having just turned 29 last month. He also still knocks the snot out of the ball, as his hard hit percentage was in the 94th percentile in 2022, his barrel rate in the 98th and his max exit velocity 89th. The upcoming rules banning defensive shifts are likely to help him out as well, since he bats from the left side. According to Statcast, Gallo is shifted in 90% of his plate appearances, one of the 20 highest such rates in the league.

Even if he can’t bounce back at the plate, he can still be a valuable player due to his strong defense. He’s been given a positive grade in the outfield by Defensive Runs Saved in each season of his career, while Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average only gave him a negative number in 2022. For his outfield work as a whole, he has 43 DRS, 19 UZR and 7 OAA. Even though his bat was subpar all year in 2022, he was still worth 0.6 wins above replacement, in the eyes of FanGraphs. In 2021, when he was good at the plate with Texas but bad with the Yanks, he was worth 4.2 fWAR.

For the Twins, Gallo should slot into one of the outfield corners, with Byron Buxton in center. This only adds to a cluttered outfield mix, as the club has many options on its roster. It was reported last week that the club is getting trade interest in Max Kepler, as they also have Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Garlick, Gilberto Celestino, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner and Mark Contreras in their outfield mix. Some of those players can also play the infield, but it’s quite the crowded dance floor. With Gallo now added into the mix, it would seem to make a trade of Kepler or someone else more likely.

The Twins should still have payroll space available, as most of their offseason has been geared around a pursuit of Carlos Correa. The club reportedly made him an offer of $285MM over 10 years, or $28.5MM per season, though he instead signed with the Giants for $350MM over 13 years. The Twins have now given $11MM to Gallo instead, taking a chance that he can rediscover some of his previous form in a new environment. This move brings the club’s payroll up to $118MM, per Roster Resource. The club’s franchise record for an Opening Day payroll was the $134MM figure they ran out in 2022, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Assuming they’re willing to spend at similar levels this year, they still have about $16MM to work with, though Kepler will have an $8.5MM salary in 2023 as well as a $1MM buyout on a $10MM club option. Moving him could create some extra payroll space unless they also take on some salary in the trade.

Despite unexpectedly landing a star like Correa for 2022, the Twins disappointed by finishing 78-84, 14 games back of the Guardians in the American League Central. They will now have to try to figure out how to be better without Correa in 2023. Better health would be one way, as they suffered an incredible number of injuries in 2022. Another path might be to reallocate his $35.1MM salary into multiple players and hope for surplus value, with Gallo now one of them.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported that Gallo and the Twins agreed at $11MM. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the one-year agreement.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Latest On Michael Conforto’s Market

By Steve Adams | December 20, 2022 at 9:55am CDT

The Rangers made Michael Conforto an offer over the summer and have maintained interest in the free-agent outfielder throughout the offseason, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. That interest has led to recent talks with agent Scott Boras, who said earlier in the offseason that Conforto was eyeing a two-year contract with an opt-out opportunity after the first season.

Texas isn’t alone in courting Conforto. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that both the Blue Jays and Mets are still showing interest as well. (The Mets, of course, are the only team for which Conforto has ever played.) Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post adds (via Twitter) that the Rockies checked in but are not seen as a likely landing spot. Saunders lists the Cubs, Marlins and Rangers as teams more prominently involved in the Conforto bidding. Seattle and Houston were linked to Conforto earlier in the offseason, though the Astros’ reunion with Michael Brantley seemingly takes them out of the Conforto mix.

The Rangers are the most commonly cited suitor for Conforto, though that hardly ensures that he’ll be suiting up at Globe Life Field in 2023. Still, Texas has had a clear need for at least one outfielder all season but has thus far focused its free-agent and trade pursuits on pitchers. Conforto, 30 in March, would be a risky investment on a multi-year deal but would come with substantial upside; the former first-round pick posted a combined .265/.369/.495 batting line with 97 home runs, 86 doubles, three triples, a 12.7% walk rate and 24.4% strikeout rate in 1959 plate appearances from 2017-20.

Conforto’s platform year before reaching free agency, however, was disappointing. He followed that strong four-year run with a more pedestrian .232/.344/.384 batting line in his age-28 season in 2021. Conforto still rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, banking on a team being willing to forfeit a draft pick based on the strength of his overall track record. That didn’t happen prior to last winter’s lockout, though, and Conforto went on to suffer an offseason shoulder injury that required surgery in the spring. Despite interest from the Astros and the apparent offer from the Rangers, Conforto did not sign over the summer, instead ostensibly preferring to wait for an offseason deal and a fully healthy return to baseball. (Had he played last summer, it’s believed he’d have been limited to designated hitter duties.)

Rosenthal suggests that some teams are concerned about Conforto’s throwing in the wake of that surgery, though he’s currently throwing from a distance of 150 feet. For the Rangers, Conforto could potentially slot into left field, given Adolis Garcia’s presence in right field. That might help to mitigate some concerns about his arm strength — if Texas even has any at the moment. Rangers left fielders were far and away the worst in MLB last season, batting a combined .186/.253/.255. Every one of those rate stats ranked dead-last in the Majors, as did the resulting 47 wRC+. Texas, incredibly, gave 13 different players a look in left field last season.

While the Rangers stand as an obvious and perhaps the best fit for Conforto, his other reported suitors are all sensible landing spots, to varying degrees. The Blue Jays have a nearly all-right-handed lineup and have seen Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s offensive contributions wane in recent seasons; Gurriel still hit for a strong .291 average in 2022, but his power vanished and his defensive grades have never been particularly strong. GM Ross Atkins said just yesterday that his focus was shifting to upgrading the offense — ideally by adding a lefty bat who could slot into the outfield. Conforto checks a lot of boxes for them. As with the Rangers, Conforto could likely slot into left field with Toronto, lessening potential concerns about his throwing arm.

The Mets, meanwhile, already have a crowded roster and a bloated payroll, but owner Steve Cohen and GM Billy Eppler seem undeterred by either of those factors. Conforto could factor into Buck Showalter’s lineup as a left fielder and designated hitter, perhaps pushing Daniel Vogelbach into more of a bench role than the platoon DH role for which he’s currently set. It might not be an especially clean fit, but the Mets perhaps feel they’d be a deeper and better team by adding Conforto, which could well bump Darin Ruf (who struggled following his acquisition over the summer) or high-priced catcher James McCann from the roster.

The Cubs’ outfield is largely set, with Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki lined up from left to right, but there’s plenty of opportunity for Conforto to join the mix and rotate through the outfield corners and designated hitter. Neither the Rockies nor Marlins are ideal fits, but it’s nevertheless notable that both have looked into a potential match with Conforto. Both teams need center fielders more than a corner outfielder, however. Colorado could push Randal Grichuk to center, but he’s generally graded out as a better defender in right field. Miami, meanwhile, already has a pair of corner outfielders — Avisail Garcia, Jorge Soler — in search of a rebound, though the latter figures to spend the bulk of his time at designated hitter in 2023.

Between a fair number of teams with interest and this offseason’s rash of free-agent deals that allow players to opt back into the market as early as next offseason, Conforto’s chances of reaching that goal of a multi-year deal with an opt-out seems attainable.

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Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies Miami Marlins New York Mets Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Michael Conforto

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