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Mark Payton Signs With NPB’s Seibu Lions

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The White Sox re-signed Mark Payton to a minor league deal earlier this month, but it appears he’ll instead play the 2023 season in Japan, having signed with the Seibu Lions, per an official announcement from the team.

Payton made just eight appearances for the White Sox in 2022, tallying 25 plate appearances and picking up three hits. In a far bigger sample size at Triple-A, Payton hit 25 home runs and put up a .293/.369/.539 line in 539 plate appearances.

The 31-year-old was drafted in the seventh round of the 2014 draft by the Yankees, but never made it to the big leagues with New York. Instead, his first opportunity in the majors would come with Cincinnati in 2020. Over two seasons with the Reds, Payton would hit .175/.250/.200 over 44 plate appearances.

While Payton’s never really had an extended opportunity in the big leagues, he has posted strong numbers in Triple-A, putting up a combined .296/.370/.515 over 1,853 plate appearances in six seasons in the top level of the minors.

Tigers Sign Kervin Castro To Minor League Deal

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The Tigers have added right-handed reliever Kervin Castro on a minor league deal, according to his MLB transaction log.

Castro, 23, split time between the Cubs and Giants in 2022, tossing 12 1/3 innings of 10.22 ERA ball while striking out batters at a 19.3% clip against a 12.3% walk rate. It was a disappointing step back after a promising first stint in the big leagues back in 2021. That year, Castro threw 13 1/3 innings without giving up an earned run and showing above-average strikeout and walk rates.

Originally signed out of Venezuela back in 2015, Castro came through the Giants system putting up solid numbers. In 2019 he made 14 starts and pitched to a 2.66 ERA in Low-A. With no minor league baseball in 2020, Castro went straight to Triple-A in 2021 and began working as a reliever, pitching to a 2.86 ERA in 44 innings and earning a first call-up to the big leagues.

While the results in 2022 weren’t encouraging, Castro’s shown some promise in the past and is young enough that there’s certainly a chance he’ll find some form again. In any case, he’ll provide the Tigers with a bit of minor league pitching depth going into the 2023 season.

Mets Have “Raised Concerns” Over Carlos Correa’s Physical, Deal Still “Likely”

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Dec 26: Heyman reports that a few teams have “checked in” since the Mets showed concern in the physical. A situation akin to what happened in San Francisco just a week ago does not appear nigh though, as Heyman adds that talks between the Mets and Correa’s camp appear to have been more substantive than what occurred with the Giants in the aftermath of Correa’s physical there.

Dec 24, 2:51pm: According to Jesse Rogers of ESPN, a deal with the Mets is still “likely”, although he reports that the contract could be reworked considering the issue. While it’s not known what a reworked contract would look like, it could include altering the duration or financial guarantee of the contract, or rewording it to alter the amount of guaranteed money Correa makes should he miss a period of time due to the specific leg ailment which is causing concern. Rogers adds that there is not a timetable in place to resolve the matter.

10:56am: Carlos Correa’s physical with the Mets has “raised concerns”, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Per the report, the concern centers on Correa’s surgically repaired lower right leg. Correa has agreed to a 12-year, $315MM deal with the Mets just days after a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants fell through over concerns over the physical.

While it’s jarring to hear given the events of the past week, it’s unclear yet what this means for the status of the deal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the two parties are currently trying to work through the issue.

Mets owner Steve Cohen has already addressed the deal, telling Heyman earlier this week that “we needed one more thing, and this is it”. That’s particularly significant as, per The Athletic’s report, addressing the deal on the record could make it trickier to back out of the agreement, although there’s nothing to suggest that’s what the Mets are looking to do.

It’s been a fascinating turn of events in Correa’s free agency over the past week. Generally, reported agreements pending a physical have become official without a hitch, but Correa’s has now hit a snag on two separate occasions in the space of a week. Further, he’s one of the top free agents this winter and had agreed to deals worth in excess of $300MM. Correa had agreed to a long-term contract with the Giants on December 13, but that fell over on Monday after the Giants reportedly asked for more time to look into the medicals after finding something that gave them pause. However, agent Scott Boras quickly pivoted and went to the Mets, who quickly agreed to their own long-term deal for $35MM less than the original Giants agreement.

Boras sought to re-engage with the Twins as well after the Giants deal fell through. Per The Athletic’s report, they’d offered him a ten-year, $285MM deal but would have put a greater emphasis on a physical before that deal than the deal he signed with Minnesota earlier in 2022, given the long-term nature of the proposal. The report also adds that after Correa became available again, the Twins were unwilling to alter their initial proposal, and would have wanted to investigate the issues raised in the player’s physical with the Giants.

The Giants have been quiet on the matter. HIPAA laws restrict them from disclosing clear answers about the precise nature of the injury, but president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi did offer a statement: “While we are prohibited from disclosing confidential medical information, as Scott Boras stated publicly, there was a difference of opinion over the results of Carlos’ physical examination. We wish Carlos the best.”

The Correa camp has denied any cause for concern. Prior to undertaking his physical with the Mets, Boras said “there is nothing with him that is currently any sort of medical issue,” via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. He also added that the Giants were trying to use a “crystal ball” to try and predict Correa’s long term health (via Laura Albanese of Newsday).

Various reports have mentioned Correa’s right leg as the source of concern for both the Giants and Mets. Back in 2014, a teenage Correa fractured his right fibula and sustained minor ligament damage while playing in High-A in the Astros organization. That injury required arthroscopic surgery to repair. Correa has missed time for thumb, back and rib issues in the big leagues, but the right leg has never sent him to the injured list in his eight big league seasons.

It is worth remembering that only a few years ago the Mets did pull out of a deal with a player. In 2021, they drafted Kumar Rocker 10th overall and agreed to a $6MM signing bonus, before abandoning the deal after growing concerned by something they saw in the physical. Of course, backing out of a $6MM deal for draft pick and a $315MM contract for an All-Star are two different things, and Cohen’s comments certainly give confidence that a deal can still go through in some form.

It’s the latest twist in what has been a tumultuous time for Correa on the open market. He was the top free agent after departing the Astros last year, but after the long-term deal he sought didn’t eventuate he took a three-year, opt-out laden, $105.1MM deal with the Twins. After earning $35.1MM last season and putting up another strong season he opted out and hit the open market for the second-straight winter. The long-term mega deal he’d been seeking looked to have finally come to fruition when it was reported the Giants had agreed to a 13-year, $350MM pact. That deal fell through, but Correa was able to quickly land a $300MM+ deal with the Mets. While there’s every chance a deal with New York still goes through, there’s at least some doubt now hanging over it.

The Opener: Correa, SP Market, Rangers

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After an unsurprisingly quiet holiday weekend, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on as the hot stove turns back on around baseball today:

1. What will happen with the Correa-Mets deal followed renewed medical concerns?

News came out over the weekend revealing that the Mets had flagged a right ankle issue in their physical examination of Carlos Correa, which was the final step before the sides finalized a 12-year, $315MM pact. The issue is reportedly the same one that gave the Giants enough pause that their 13-year, $350MM agreement with Correa fell apart, which is what allowed the Mets to land Correa in the first place. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that a deal is still expected to get done, noting that other teams have checked in on Correa over the weekend, but the sides are still committed to working things out. Heyman suggests that language in the contract may be revised to accommodate New York’s concerns, as it was when the Red Sox had post-physical medical concerns while finalizing JD Martinez’s 5-year deal with the club before the 2018 season.

2. Are the last starters going to start coming off the board?

Reports about three of the top starting pitching targets left on the free agent market surfaced over the weekend, with Nathan Eovaldi being connected to the Padres, Angels, and an AL East mystery team, with the Angels also linked to Corey Kluber and the Padres also linked to Johnny Cueto. Both teams certainly make sense as landing spots for any of the aforementioned free agent starters; the Angels have solid options for five slots in their rotation, but have typically gone with a six-man rotation to accommodate their unicorn superstar Shohei Ohtani. The Padres, meanwhile, have a relatively thin rotation even after adding Seth Lugo, especially when compared to their incredibly deep lineup and strong bullpen. One factor that could mix up the starting pitching market, however, is the sudden willingness of the Red Sox to listen to offers on oft-injured ace Chris Sale. Sale was previously among the very best starters in the game, making trips to the All Star game and receiving Cy Young votes in seven straight seasons from 2012-2018. An array of injuries have largely kept Sale off the field from 2020-2022, however, with less than 50 innings pitched in that time. Sale surely offers more tantalizing upside than any other starter available, but if his injury woes continue, an acquiring club could be left on the hook for his hefty salary without much production to show for it.

3. Will the Rangers manage to add the bat they need?

The Rangers were reportedly a finalist for the services of Michael Conforto before he landed in San Francisco on a two-year deal. This leaves Texas in a place they’ve been all offseason: in desperate need of outfield help. Leody Taveras and Adolis Garcia look like they can handle the lion’s share of starts in center field and right field, respectively, headed into the 2023 season. That still leaves left field as largely vacant, however, with Josh Smith and Brad Miller among a list of internal options who do not inspire confidence. Outside of a long shot trade for a big bat like Bryan Reynolds, the club seems likely to add a bat from free agency. The pickings at the position are slim at this point, though, with Jurickson Profar and Trey Mancini looking to be the only clear everyday players left available. Failing the addition of one of those two players, the Rangers could add multiple players in order to mix and match between left and DH, where Mitch Garver primarily played in 2022. Options for such a venture include Rafael Ortega, David Peralta, AJ Pollock, and Andrew McCutchen.

Angels Sign Kevin Padlo To Minor League Contract

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The Angels have added infielder Kevin Padlo on a minor league deal, according to his MLB transaction log.

Padlo, 26, bounced around the waiver wire a bit in 2022, tallying 34 plate appearances between stints with the Giants, Mariners and Pirates. He didn’t hit much, picking up just four hits in that time. He did spend plenty of time at Triple-A, putting together a .255/.331/.438 line with 12 home runs over 344 plate appearances across the three affiliates he played for.

Originally drafted in the fifth round in 2014 by the Rockies, they flipped him to Tampa Bay in a 2016 trade involving Corey Dickerson, German Marquez and Jake McGee. He was called up by the Rays for the first time in 2021 for a brief nine game stint, but was lost on waivers to Seattle later that year. All told, he’s put together a .109/.163/.152 line across 49 big league plate appearances for four teams.

Padlo’s spent the bulk of his time at the corner infield spots, but he did log a few innings at second in the minor leagues as well. He’ll give the Angels a bit of infield depth in the upper minors ahead of the 2023 season.

2022-23 MLB Free Agents

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The following players are currently eligible for free agency. Players’ ages for the 2023 season are listed in parentheses.  Generally, the cutoff for this list is at least 50 plate appearances or 20 innings pitched in 2022.

Updated 3-28-23

Catchers

Robinson Chirinos (38)
Kevin Plawecki (32)
Austin Romine (34)
Gary Sanchez (30)

First Basemen

Franchy Cordero (28)
Miguel Sano (30)

Second Basemen

Robinson Cano (40)
Charlie Culberson (34)
Cesar Hernandez (33)
Andrelton Simmons (33)
Jonathan Villar (32)

Shortstops

Alcides Escobar (36)
Didi Gregorius (33)
Andrelton Simmons (33)
Dee Strange-Gordon (35)
Jonathan Villar (32)

Third Basemen

Charlie Culberson (34)
Phil Gosselin (34)
Jonathan Villar (32)

Left Fielders

Albert Almora (29)
Franchy Cordero (28)

Center Fielders

Albert Almora (29)
Odubel Herrera (31)
Rafael Ortega (32)

Right Fielders

Albert Almora (29)
Luis Barrera (27)
Kole Calhoun (35)
Travis Demeritte (28)
Nomar Mazara (28)

Designated Hitters

Gary Sanchez (30)
Justin Upton (35)

Starting Pitchers

Chris Archer (34)
Dallas Keuchel (35)
Mike Minor (35)
Michael Pineda (34)
Anibal Sanchez (39)

Right-Handed Relievers

Archie Bradley (30)
Jhoulys Chacin (35)
Kyle Crick (30)
Ken Giles (31)
Will Harris (38)
Corey Knebel (30)
Reyes Moronta (30)
Garrett Richards (35)
Hansel Robles (32)
Joe Smith (39)

Left-Handed Relievers

Zack Britton (35)
Ross Detwiler (37)

Marc Narducci: My Hall Of Fame Ballot

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Marc Narducci spent 37 years covering all sports for The Philadelphia Inquirer before recently retiring in July. He covered everything from high school sports to the Phillies winning the World Series and the Eagles winning the Super Bowl. A lifelong Southern NJ resident, he remains a freelance writer and broadcaster. Once again, Marc reached out to see if MLB Trade Rumors would be interested in publishing his Hall of Fame ballot.  I am happy to do it and hope it can be an interesting topic of debate for our readers.  Here’s Marc…

Let’s get it out of the way first.

Last season while writing for MLB Trade Rumors about my Hall of Fame ballot, the case was presented that there was no room for the steroid players.

As anybody can see from the comments, my ears were burning as the overwhelming majority of the readers disagreed.

That’s fine. A little discourse is good, and while Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa and Roger Clemens are off the ballot, and while there are still players on the ballot linked to steroids, the biggest controversy this year centers around Carlos Beltran, albeit, not steroid related.

It was Beltran who MLB said was the mastermind of the Houston Astros cheating scandal in 2017 when they won the World Series. MLB said Houston used an intricate electronic method to steal signs and the only player named as the ringleader was Beltran.

It cost him the job of the New York Mets manager and at least for now, is costing him this vote.

Beltran has a strong resume, a nine-time all-star, three-time Gold Glove winner who, put up a career 279/.350/486 line with 435 home runs and 1,587 RBI.

In 65 postseason games, he hit .307/.412/609 line with 16 home runs and 42 RBI over 256 plate appearance.

Beltran himself said that the Astros World Series title was “stained” by the scandal.

The fact that he was the mastermind, well, that was cheating the game. He was not a slam dunk candidate before this occurred, but he did have a lot in his favor. For now, he will remain off this ballot.

Should all the Astros be punished?

That will be answered later, but for being the mastermind, Beltran pays the price on this ballot.

And for those who don’t think it was a big deal, both the Yankees and Dodgers, who lost to Houston in seven-game series in the ALCS and World Series respectively, didn’t hold back on their criticism of the Astros.

Now back to the ballot, with the players listed in alphabetical order.

Todd Helton

One can talk all they want about the advantage for Colorado Rockies hitters in Coors Field and there is some obvious truth, but it’s also difficult to play on the road after hitting in that altitude.

If a player had a .287/.386/469 line for a career, that would open some eyes. The fact that it was Helton’s road total shows what a good hitter he was. At Coors it was .345/.441/.607.

That gave him a career mark of .316/.414/.539.

He was a first baseman who wasn’t known for his power, but he still hit 369 home runs and had 1,406 RBI, while playing all 17 seasons for the Rockies.

He was a five-time All-Star, a four-time Silver Slugger winner and a three-time Gold Glove recipient.

For those who give all the credit to the hitting atmosphere in Coors Field, he has a 133 career OPS+ and a 132 WRC+.

He also won the batting title in 2000, hitting, .372.

Again, while some suggest batting average is an outdated measure to evaluate players, it should be remembered how difficult it is to hit .300. In 2022, only 11 total players from both leagues hit .300 or better. Helton did it for his career.

This is his fifth season on the ballot and his percentage of votes has increased each year. Last year he received 52% of the vote. It may be too big a jump to make the needed 75% threshold this year, but Helton, a former quarterback with Peyton Manning at Tennessee, appears to one day be headed to Cooperstown.

Jeff Kent

This is Kent’s 10th and final year on the ballot and it doesn’t appear as if he will come close to getting elected by the writers.

Last season he received his highest vote total, 32.7 percent, so unless he has a miracle surge this year, Kent won’t make it.

Still, being the best power hitting second baseman in history is a main reason he made this ballot.

We know Kent was a below average fielder, but nobody hit more home runs as a second baseman in MLB history.

Kent hit 377 home runs, including 351 as a second baseman. The closest second baseman was Rogers Hornsby, who hit 301.

We acknowledge that Hornsby had 325 fewer at-bats than Kent, but the 50- home run difference (as second basemen) is still jaw dropping, especially for a position that isn’t known for power.
While RBI are downgraded by many in the sabermetrics community, most of the top players in the league each season are among the RBI leaders. Kent is third among second basemen in the Hall of Fame with 1,518 RBI.

Only three HOF second basemen have hit more than Kent’s 560 doubles.

Among HOF second basemen, he is second only to Hornsby with a .500 slugging percentage. (Hornsby had an insane .577 slugging percentage).

Kent’s career B-WAR is just 55.4, thanks largely to a -0.1 DWAR.

His .855 OPS is fifth among HOF second basemen.

He not only hit for power, but for average. His had a career line of .290/.356/.500.

Kent was the 2000 MVP, a five-time All-Star, and four-time Silver Slugger recipient.

He was a solid, if not spectacular postseason performer, but qualified for the playoffs seven times with four different teams.

In 49 career postseason games, Kent hit .276/.340/.500 with nine home runs and 23 RBI in 189 plate appearances.

Just a great hitting career, one that was HOF worthy.

Scott Rolen

Scott Rolen continues to make good progress in his attempt to earn a HOF berth. This is his sixth season on the ballot and last year he received 63.2% of the vote.

He is a player who was as great defensively as he was offensively, maybe even better. There have only been 17 third basemen selected to the HOF, the least among all positions, with the exception of relief pitchers.

Rolen is somebody whose offensive stats weren’t overwhelming, but they were more than good enough to complement his outstanding defense.

First off, he accumulated 70.1 B-WAR, 10th best all-time among third basemen. Of the other nine, eight are in the Hall of Fame and Adrian Beltre is expected to earn induction when he becomes eligible next year.

Just eight Hall of Famer third basemen have a higher career OPS than Rolen’s .855. Ten HOF third baseman have a better OPS+ than Rolen’s 122.

Rolen had a .281/361/.490 line with 316 home runs and 1,287 RBI.

He was a seven-time All-Star, the 1997 National League Rookie of the Year and an eight-time Gold Glove winner and earned one Silver Slugger award in 2002.

Rolen played in the postseason five different times and won a World Series in 2006 with the St. Louis Cardinals. He hit .421/.476/.737 in the Cardinals’ World Series win in five games over the Detroit Tigers.

The 6-4, 245-pound Rolen had great defensive range, even more impressive for somebody his size. He also had a great arm.

He has improved his percentage of votes each year and Rolen is considered to have a good chance to be voted in by the writers, whether it is this year or possibly next.

Billy Wagner

Like Kent, Wagner’s time is dwindling. This is his eighth year on the ballot, although he had his best showing last year, earning 51.0% of the vote.

The biggest argument against Wagner is his lack of innings. There are eight relief pitchers in the HOF and all have pitched more than the 903 innings that Wagner threw.

Yet Wagner’s 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings is best in MLB history (minimum of 750 innings pitched).

He actually had more strikeouts (1,196) than the greatest reliever of all time, Mariano Rivera. Rivera struck out 1,173 in 1,282 2/3 innings.

According to MLB.com, Wagner had 422 saves in 476 opportunities (88.6 percent). Only two Hall of Fame relievers have a higher save percentage, Rivera (89.1%) and Trevor Hoffman (88.8%).

Wagner also has a higher strikeout ratio (33.2%) than any reliever in the HOF. The closest is Hoffman (25.8%).

Wagner finished with a 2.37 ERA and a 187 adjusted ERA and Rivera is the only HOF relief pitcher who bettered those totals.

Wagner was a seven-time all-star and besides the lack of innings, his other blemish is his postseason performance.

He qualified for the postseason seven times and had a 10.03 ERA in 14 appearances totaling 11 2/3 innings. His postseason WHIP was 1.971.

Yikes.

Still that is a small sample size even if it is in the most pressurized setting.

Even with the lack of innings and a shaky postseason, Wagner’s dominance in the regular season, puts him on this ballot.

Giants, Ljay Newsome Agree to Minor League Deal

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The Giants have signed reliever Ljay Newsome to a minor league contract, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. The 26-year-old joins the third organization of his professional career.

Newsome entered the pro ranks in 2015, selected by the Mariners in the 26th round out of Chopticon High School in Maryland. He’d spend the next five seasons working his way through Seattle’s system, eventually joining the big league club’s alternate training site during the 2020 season and appearing in five games at the major league level, throwing 15 2/3 innings but giving up 20 hits and nine earned runs.

Nevertheless, the righty broke camp with the club during the 2021 season but would suffer a UCL injury in May, ending his year. The Mariners placed him on waivers following the season and he was subsequently picked up by the Cardinals. Newsome made his return midway through the 2022 season, but struggled across at Single-A and Triple-A levels of minor league ball, pitching to a combined 6 ERA in nine innings while giving up 11 hits, albeit with a solid 8:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Following the 2022 season, Newsome was released but it did not take him long to secure a new home for 2023. Despite a poor cumulative 6.53 ERA in 30 1/3 innings at the major league level, he has shown elite control, walking only four of the 137 MLB hitters he’s faced (2.9%). Additionally, during his last full minor league season, Newsome pitched to a 3.54 ERA in 155 innings across three levels with a sparkling 169:17 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Newsome has flashed elite control and is coming off a season of rehab. He’ll presumably start next year with the Giants’ highest affiliate in Sacramento but could put himself in the mix for an MLB bullpen job at some point. Newsome has three option years remaining, so if he cracks the 40-man roster at any point, the Giants can freely move him between San Francisco and Sacramento.

Red Sox’s Chris Sale Drawing Trade Interest

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Teams are reportedly checking in with the Red Sox on the availability of seven-time All-Star Chris Sale, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. However, Heyman notes that Boston is “not looking to trade any of their starters,” but is “willing to listen and consider.” Sale is currently owed $55MM through the 2024 season. Nevertheless, Sale has full veto power over any potential trade by virtue of his 10-and-5 rights (ten years of Major League service time, including at least the past five with the same team).

Arriving in Boston after the 2016 season, Sale continued to display his superiority on the mound, pitching to sub-3 ERAs in 2017 and 2018 while helping the Red Sox win their fourth World Series Championship since 2000. Following their victory, Boston and Sale soon hammered out a five-year, $145MM extension (with a vesting option for the 2025 season) that many believed to be a bargain at the time for a starting pitcher that had seven consecutive All-Star appearances, six consecutive Top-5 Cy Young finishes, four consecutive seasons of MVP consideration, and boasted a career 2.89 ERA in 1482 1/3 innings with a 30.2 SO%,  5.7% BB, and 42.9% ground ball rate.

However, after signing that extension Sale went on to have arguably the worst full season of his career. In 2019, the southpaw saw his ERA balloon to a career-high 4.40 in 147 1/3 innings while dealing with inflammation in his pitching elbow that forced a premature end to his year.

After rehabilitation and undergoing a platelet-rich plasma injection, expectations were high for the lefty as the extension went into effect for the 2020 season. However, Sale would soon be forced to undergo Tommy John surgery in March 2020, missing the entirety of the truncated season and the first half of the 2021 season. He was then shelved for the beginning of the 2022 season due to a stress reaction in his ribcage, and he suffered a broken pinkie finger upon being hit by a comebacker shortly after returning. Then, shortly before he was scheduled to return to the club, the Red Sox announced in early August that Sale had fractured his wrist in a bicycle accident and would miss the remainder of the season.

Altogether, it’s been a near-nightmarish start to the contract extension for the Red Sox, although this year’s slate of injuries, in particular, seem fluky in nature. To Sale’s credit, in the small amount of time he’s been healthy enough to take the mound during the first three years of the extension, he’s been excellent. In those 48 1/3 innings, Sale owns a 3.17 ERA with a strong 27.4%% strikeout rate against a tidy 6.3% walk rate. Inning-for-inning, that’s largely the type of performance the Sox were hoping for — but Sale’s body has not held up.

The 33-year-old Sale (34 in March) is but one of many question marks for the Boston rotation. Nick Pivetta is the only largely established starting option for the Sox heading into 2023. Top prospect Brayan Bello is tentatively lined up for a turn in the rotation but didn’t quite seize one in this year’s rookie effort (57 1/3 innings, 4.71 ERA — albeit with better secondary marks and sparks of brilliance). Righties Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck have rotation potential but both have thus far been shuttled between the starting staff and the bullpen. Additional righty starters Kutter Crawford, Josh Winckowski, and Connor Seabold were all posted ERAs north of 5.25 as rookies in 2022.

With Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, and Rich Hill departing via free agency and Sale and James Paxton (also returning from injury) wild cards, the Red Sox were expected to target starting pitching this offseason. Nevertheless, the club has yet to add to their staff, instead fortifying their bullpen and adding position players Masataka Yoshida and Justin Turner.

From a financial perspective, if Sale, who is projected to be healthy for Spring Training, can return to even a fraction of his dominant self, the Red Sox will have control of a top-tier starting pitcher who can be considered ’cheap’ when compared to other high-level starters that have recently signed large contracts with AAVs greater than $35MM, such as Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole, and Jacob deGrom. That’s not to say that Sale is currently at the level of those pitchers, but that he has been at similar heights and could reasonably reach a prominent level of production again

Currently, Roster Resource projects Boston’s payroll to be near $177MM, and their competitive balance tax figure to be roughly $203MM. With the base competitive balance tax threshold set at $233MM for the 2023 season, the Red Sox are in no rush to shed salary and may instead hold onto Sale in the hopes that he returns to his pre-Tommy John levels of excellence.

Quick Hits: Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Rangers

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The Diamondbacks have added former pitcher Rolando Valles to their major league coaching staff, per Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic. Valles takes the position vacated by former D-Backs bench coach Luis Urueta, who left the team in November to join the Marlins in the same role. When discussing the hiring, manager Torey Lovullo told reporters that Valles will be part of Arizona’s “run-prevention team.”

Signed by the Astros as an undrafted free agent in 1997, Valles would spend five years in the club’s system, reaching Low-A, before playing another five seasons in independent leagues. He then transitioned to an organizational role, spending two seasons with the Brewers in their player development system helping players with their off-field needs and on-field development before becoming a minor league pitching coach in 2010. Valles joined the Reds in 2019 in an associate coaching role where he engaged in offensive and pitching duties.

Some more notes from around the game…

  • The recent passing of a ’millionaires tax’ in Massachusetts has led to an increase in state income taxes in 2023 from 5% to 9% on annual income over $1MM — potentially impacting Boston’s offseason, per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. Speier reports that agents who have been negotiating with the Red Sox are factoring in the tax when contemplating offers, stating that “it’s potentially millions of dollars in the deal.” Speier adds that Boston is now “lumped in with teams in California and New York in needing to outbid clubs in more favorable tax environments (particularly Texas and Florida, where there’s no state income tax) to present offers of equal value.” Speculatively speaking, this tax may have played a role in the Red S0x’s five-year, $90MM agreement with NPB star Masataka Yoshida, who many around the league predicted would earn significantly less.
  • With the Red Sox witnessing their longtime shortstop Xander Bogarts leave in free agency, the club has been connected with several middle infielders to fill the hole, most recently signing Niko Goodrum to a Minor League deal and discussing Joey Wendle with the Marlins. However, the door for Kike Hernandez to play a key role in the infield has not been completely shut. The super utilityman told reports that he is “preparing to play center field every day … but I haven’t thrown away my infield glove,” adding that he continues to take ground balls. Over nine seasons, the 31-year-old has logged 2,335 innings at short and second base but has primarily patrolled Fenway’s outfield in recent years. From a defensive standpoint, advanced metrics concerning Hernandez’s middle infield production are split. Since 2014 at the shortstop position, the righty is credited with 9 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and a 5.4 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) but a -3 Outs Above Average (OAA). Similarly, since 2014 at second base, Hernandez has amassed 18 DRS but a -6.1 UZR and -5 OAA.
  • Despite missing the entirety of the 2022 season, Michael Conforto and agent Scott Boras were able to secure the outfielder a two-year, $36MM contract with the Giants. Important to the deal, per Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News, was the no-barrier opt out presented to Conforto by San Francisco. Grant adds that while the Rangers offered the left-handed hitter a deal similar to the Giants, Conforto would have to meet certain playing thresholds to execute the opt out.

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