Juan Soto Discusses Failed Extension With Nationals, Trade To Padres
The Padres have remade their reputation in recent years, changing from a small market team to one of the heavy hitters that is seemingly in on every notable free agent and trade candidate. That included nabbing Juan Soto last year, arguably the highest profile deadline deal in recent baseball history. Players with that much talent, youth and years of control don’t usually become available, which made it a headline-grabbing frenzy when it actually did happen.
Soto recently spoke with Stephanie Apstein of Sports Illustrated and was quite candid about how he actually didn’t enjoy the process as much as he expected. The firestorm kicked off when it was reported in mid-July that Soto had rejected a $440MM extension offer from the Nationals, which is what led to him being available in trades. It seems the outfielder wasn’t happy that those extension talks got leaked. “I wanted to do it with the Nationals, but they just made it public,” he says. “I didn’t like that at all. I hated it. I told them we weren’t speaking anymore, because they just threw everything out there.”
Although a trade seemed inevitable at that time and Soto prepared himself for it, he admitted that it hurt him more than he expected when it finally became real. Nelson Cruz, then his teammate in Washington and now again in San Diego, had to console a tearful Soto and remind him he was going to a better situation. He says that his anxiety finally abated when he returned to Washington and got a standing ovation in Nationals Park. “I really felt relieved,” he says. “I could leave that in the past and focus on Cali.” The Friars ultimately qualified for the postseason, their first playoff appearance in a full season since 2006. They knocked off the Mets and the Dodgers before falling to the Phillies in the NLCS.
Another part of the Padres’ aggressiveness has been extending their incumbent players, with Manny Machado, Yu Darvish, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth and Joe Musgrove all getting notable deals recently. It’s fair to assume they’d like to do the same with Soto, though we might not hear much about it, given his preferences. “If [the Padres can keep negotiations private], I can do it any time. I have no problem with it,” he says.
The news of him leaving nearly half a billion dollars on the table also caused a lot of stress in his inner circle, with Soto saying it put “all the fans, all the Dominicans, even my family against me.” It seemingly crept into the locker room as well. “A lot of teammates were like, ‘We respect your thinking, but that’s a lot of money,’” he says. “I’m like, ‘Guys, I’m trying to do what’s best for me and what’s best for my family.’ And you gotta go out there and perform. And you try to perform for guys that doubt you. And that’s one of the things I hated.”
The concern from those family members and teammates is presumably that Soto is taking a risk by leaving that kind of money on the table. There’s always a risk in any athlete turning down significant money, as an unexpected injury could then diminish their earning power. But Soto still has plenty of things working in his favor to get a huge payday. Since he rocketed to the majors at such a young age, he’s still only 24, younger than many top prospects who have yet to even debut. He’s slated for free agency after 2024, when he will have just turned 26 years old. This past offseason saw superstar players like Aaron Judge and Trea Turner get to $300MM and beyond, even though they were going into their age-31 and age-30 seasons, respectively. Soto is already getting $23MM this year and will get another raise via arbitration for 2024 before hitting the open market at an exceptionally young age. It’s seems well within the realm of possibility that he ends up getting more than what he walked away from.
Some Padre fans have expressed concern that Soto isn’t living up to the hype so far, as his production was a bit diminished after the trade and he’s off to a slow start here in 2023. However, the underlying numbers suggest he’s due for some positive regression. He still walked more than he struck out after coming to San Diego and the same is true again here this year. His Statcast page is still bright red, meaning there’s no reason to suspect his .185 batting average on balls in play so far this year will stay more than 100 points below his career BABIP of .306. Even with that terrible luck so far, his .175/.366/.365 batting line amounts to an above-average 106 wRC+. Once the baseball gods start smiling on him again, he should move closer to his career batting line of .283/.422/.521 and 152 wRC+.
Despite all the attention and the doubters, Soto maintains he’s in a good place. “I feel great right now,” he tells Apstein. “Forget about all this stuff. Now I’m focused on the San Diego Padres.” The club is out to a slow start, currently at 8-11, but once Soto’s fortunes change for the better, that should apply to the club as well.
Turning to other parts of the roster, the club will also be getting a boost to its rotation soon as Joe Musgrove is set to make his season debut on Saturday, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic. The righty suffered a fractured toe in a freak weight room accident back in February and has been working his way back to health since. He’s coming off arguably his best season yet, as he posted a 2.93 ERA over 30 starts last year, as well as a 2.89 ERA in three postseason starts. The club has been employing a six-man rotation recently and will have to decide who gets bumped to make room for Musgrove. Yu Darvish and Blake Snell are locks to stick, with one of Michael Wacha, Ryan Weathers, Seth Lugo or Nick Martinez in line for a move to the bullpen or the farm. Weathers is the only one of that group that can be optioned to the minors, though he also has a 2.81 ERA in the early going while Martinez and Wacha are at 5.60 and 6.06, respectively.
The bullpen could also be in line for a reinforcement in the near future, as lefty Drew Pomeranz started a rehab assignment last night. He tossed one inning for the Single-A Lake Elsinore Storm, getting a flyout, a groundout and a strikeout. Signed to a four-year, $34MM deal going into 2020, he posted a 1.45 ERA in the first year of the deal and a 1.75 in the second, striking out more than a third of batters faced in that time. Unfortunately, he required flexor tendon surgery in August of 2021 and hasn’t been on a big league mound since. Starting a rehab assignment now doesn’t necessarily mean a return is imminent, as he started a similar rehab stint in August of last year but renewed soreness shut him down. A full offseason didn’t even get him to 100%, as he dealt with inflammation during Spring Training and is only now properly ramping up. It’s hard to know what to expect from him at this point, but getting anywhere close to his excellent results from a few years ago would be most welcome.
And turning quickly to ownership, the club’s recent change in organizational attitude coincided with Peter Seidler purchasing a majority stake in the club in late 2020. It seems he plans on sticking around for a long time while continuing to run out a competitive roster. “There will never be another fire sale in San Diego, and I expect my family to own the franchise for another 50, 75 years,” he said at an event yesterday, per Evan Drellich of The Athletic. “Hopefully go for more, I’ll talk from the grave.”
Rockies Activate Daniel Bard
The Rockies have reinstated closer Daniel Bard from the injured list and optioned righty Peter Lambert to Triple-A Albuquerque in a corresponding move, per a team announcement.
Bard hasn’t pitched yet this season, as he opened the year on the injured list due to anxiety issues that have plagued him throughout his career. Bard was candid and forthcoming about his ongoing battle with anxiety, telling Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette back in late March: “It’s a hard thing to admit, but I’ve been through this before. I have enough going on outside the game to realize what’s important … I’m extremely grateful to be in an organization that understands these things and is accepting.”
Anxiety all but ended Bard’s career at one point. From 2013-19, he pitched just one big league inning. His successful age-35 comeback with the Rockies in 2020 following a six-year absence from the Major Leagues was one of the most remarkable returns in recent memory. That he not only made it back to the Majors but returned to his status as an elite reliever in 2022 is all the more incredible.
Bard’s 2022 campaign was nothing short of a triumph; he piled up 60 1/3 innings of 1.79 ERA ball, recording a career-high 34 saves while punching out 28.2% of his opponents against a 10.2% walk rate. Bard, who averaged 97.9 mph on his fastball last year, was dominant to the point that the Rockies opted to sign him to a two-year, $19MM extension just prior to last year’s trade deadline rather than field trade offers. He had otherwise been slated to reach free agency at season’s end.
Bard’s 2023 struggles began in the World Baseball Classic, when he lost command of the strike zone in the United States’ matchup against Venezuela, issuing a pair of walks, throwing a wild pitch and plunking Jose Altuve with a 96 mph sinker that wound up fracturing the second baseman’s thumb. Bard pitched with the Rockies during the Cactus League following that nightmarish WBC outing but ultimately decided it was best for his own health and for the team that he begin the season on the IL.
Though he’s been on the injured list, Bard remained with the team throughout that stint, continued throwing side sessions, and recently embarked on a brief minor league rehab stint. It was just one inning, but Bard allowed only a single to Fernando Tatis Jr. and struck out the other three batters he faced. Seventeen of his 23 pitches were strikes — an encouraging sign for both him and the team.
The Rockies haven’t stated whether Bard will jump right back into the closer’s role or will ease back into that setting. Pierce Johnson leads the team with three saves but has walked six of his 33 opponents while pitching to a 5.40 ERA. He’s also fanned 11 of 33 hitters and allowed just one home run, and the bulk of the damage against Johnson came in one blown save against the Cardinals.
Giants Acquire Cal Stevenson, Designate Sam Long
The Athletics traded outfielder Cal Stevenson to the Giants in exchange for cash, per announcements from both teams. Oakland had designated Stevenson for assignment late last week. San Francisco designated lefty Sam Long for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Stevenson has been optioned to Triple-A Sacramento.
Stevenson, 26, appeared in his first 23 big league games with Oakland last year but managed only a .167/.261/.217 output in 71 plate appearances. Oakland picked him up alongside minor league righty Christian Fernandez in a trade that sent catcher/first baseman Christian Bethancourt back to Tampa Bay. Thus far, that hasn’t panned out in the A’s favor, though Fernandez is out to a nice start in High-A this season.
Stevenson has been an on-base machine in the minors, with more walks (240) than strikeouts (222) through 1471 minor league plate appearances. He’s spent parts of two seasons (2023 included) at the Triple-A level and posted a combined .289/.397/.414 batting line, showing plus plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills but minimal power. He’s never turned in a double-digit home run total in a professional season, though he did pop nine long balls in an injury-shortened 2021 Double-A campaign that saw him tally just 365 plate appearances. He has ample experience in both center field and in left field. Stevenson also has two minor league option years remaining (2023 included).
As for Long, the 27-year-old southpaw has spent parts of the past two seasons in the Giants’ bullpen but opened the 2023 campaign in Sacramento, where he’s gotten out to a rough start. Through 10 Triple-A innings, Long has been tagged for 11 runs on the strength of 14 hits and five walks with just seven punchouts.
Long tallied a career-high 42 1/3 Major League innings last season with San Francisco, pitching to a 3.61 ERA with a sharp 7.7% walk rate but a well below-average 18.2% strikeout rate. He averaged 94.5 mph on his heater but was also exceptionally homer-prone despite a spacious home park, serving up an average of 1.70 big flies per nine innings pitched. Metrics like FIP (5.07) and SIERA (4.31) felt he had some good fortune to keep his ERA so low, which is likely the case to some degree, given a fairly low .248 average on balls in play.
This is Long’s final minor league option year, so he can freely be shuttled between Triple-A and the big leagues for the remainder of the season but not in 2024. The Giants will have a week to trade him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers.
Giants Place Alex Wood On IL, Recall Tristan Beck
The Giants have placed left-hander Alex Wood on the 15-day injured list due to a left hamstring strain, per Evan Webeck of the San Jose Mercury News. Right-hander Tristan Beck has been recalled to take his place on the roster. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle had previously reported that Beck was with the club.
Wood, 32, started last night’s game for the Giants but departed after appearing to injure himself while fielding a bunt. It was later announced as a hamstring strain, per Slusser. It’s an unfortunate development for the Giants, as Wood was out to a nice start here in 2023, currently sporting a 1.80 ERA through three outings. Wood is an obviously talented pitcher, currently owning a 3.67 career ERA in 1,131 innings, but injuries have been a frequent obstacle. Shoulder and back issues have been a frequent culprit, with the southpaw only tossing 48 2/3 total innings over 2019 and 2020. After moving to the Giants for the 2021 season, he’s had some better health but still only got to 26 starts and just over 130 innings in each of the past two campaigns.
With Wood out, it’s possible that Ross Stripling gets another crack at a rotation job. It was reported last week that he would be moved to the bullpen after a rough start to the year, but he pitched well last night, helping the club get through the game after Wood’s departure. He tossed 2 1/3 scoreless innings with three strikeouts, two hits and no walks. He told Slusser this morning that he’s ditching his new changeup for now and focusing on getting his typical repertoire in good shape. Even with last night’s good outing, his ERA is still at 7.30 for the year, but he had a much better 3.01 mark for the Blue Jays last year. That compelled the Giants to give him a two-year, $25MM deal in the winter with an opt-out after 2023. The Giants still have four rotation spots spoken for between Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Anthony DeSclafani and Sean Manaea, with Stripling perhaps taking over that #5 slot. Manager Gabe Kapler tells Slusser that there’s a good chance Stripling does indeed return to the rotation.
It’s unclear how long Wood will be out of action, but his move to the IL opens a spot for Beck, 27 in June, to join the club and perhaps make his major league debut in the near future. A fourth round selection of Atlanta in 2018, he came to the Giants in the 2019 deadline deal that sent Mark Melancon the other way. Injuries have been a running theme of his career so far, as he dealt with back issues in college and then a herniated disc limited him to just 37 1/3 innings in 2021.
Last year, he made three Double-A starts before getting bumped to Triple-A. He posted a 5.64 ERA in 97 1/3 innings for the River Cats, who play in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. His peripherals paint a nicer picture, as he had a 22.7% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate and 42.4% ground ball rate, leading to a 4.28 FIP. He has a 3.38 ERA through three Triple-A starts here in 2023. Since being acquired, he’s been featured on many lists of the top prospects in the system and was added to the 40-man in November to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.
The Opener: Betts, Prospect Debuts, MLBTR Chat
As the 2023 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Mookie to return to the infield?
Dodgers superstar Mookie Betts is set to return from the paternity list today, manager Dave Roberts tells reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic). Of more significance than Betts’s return, however, is where he’ll be playing: Roberts notes that he expects Betts to start “somewhere in the infield” upon his return, with shortstop standing as a distinct possibility. Betts came up through the minors as a second baseman, but moved over to right field upon reaching the majors in Boston to accommodate Dustin Pedroia.
Still, he’s appeared at the keystone in 35 games across six seasons of his career, including at least once during every season he’s spent in LA. Five of those appearances have already come during the young 2023 season. It’s a move that’s understandable for the Dodgers, who have a plethora of potential outfield options on the roster but few infield options outside of their starting unit, particularly with Chris Taylor currently sidelined by a left side injury and Miguel Rojas having exited last night’s game with a hamstring issue.
2. MLB Debuts in Oakland and Cincinnati:
Both the A’s and Reds will turn to one of the top young arms in their farm system to start today’s game. Oakland is calling up flamethrowing righty Mason Miller, while the Reds have already activated righty Levi Stoudt for his own debut.
Miller, 24, was a third-round pick in 2021 who’s turned heads with a triple-digit heater and a dominant 11-strikeout, zero-walk showing in his first start at Triple-A this season. Injuries have limited him to just 45 1/3 innings since being drafted in ’21, but A’s GM David Forst has already indicated that this is more than a spot start; Miller will remain in the rotation moving forward. Time will tell how he acclimates and what type of workload the A’s are comfortable with after he pitched just 31 2/3 innings between the minors and the Arizona Fall League in 2022.
It’s a different story for Stoudt, whose outing has already been confirmed as a spot start by Reds skipper David Bell. Like Miller, Stoudt a former third-round pick (2019). He’ll be the first of the four players Cincinnati acquired from the Mariners in exchange for Luis Castillo to make his Reds debut. He pitched to a tidy 2.63 ERA between Double-A (five innings) and Triple-A (19) following last summer’s trade and has a 4.09 ERA through three Triple-A starts in ’23, albeit with a more concerning 10-to-9 K/BB ratio.
Both Miller and Stoudt are potential long-term rotation options for their respective clubs, providing baseball fans a potential glimpse into each team’s future.
3. MLBTR Chat:
Yesterday, MLBTR’s Steve Adams fielded questions during a live chat (transcript here). If you still have unanswered questions about the beginnings of the 2023 season, you’re in luck, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting another chat today at 5pm CT. You can submit a question in advance here, and you can use the same link to check back in this evening and participate live once the chat begins. In addition, be sure to check out the newest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, which dropped earlier today!
Reds Promote Levi Stoudt
April 19: The Reds announced this morning that Stoudt has been activated from the taxi squad and is now on the active Major League roster to start today’s game. Righty Casey Legumina was optioned to Triple-A Louisville to clear a spot on the 26-man roster.
April 18, 2:10pm: Manager David Bell tells reporters, including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer, that it will just be a spot start for Stoudt. He’ll push the rotation back a day to give Greene an extra day of rest after getting hit on the shin by a comebacker in his most recent start.
1:55pm: The Reds announced that pitching prospect Levi Stoudt has been added to their taxi squad and is scheduled to start tomorrow’s game, which will be his major league debut. Additionally, the club reinstated right-hander Lucas Sims from the injured list and optioned fellow righty Kevin Herget to Triple-A. Stoudt already has a 40-man roster spot but a corresponding move will be required to get him on the active roster.
Stoudt, 25, came over to the Reds in the trade that sent Luis Castillo to the Mariners. He was selected by the latter club in the third round of the 2019 draft, then had Tommy John surgery shortly after, with his rehab coinciding with the minor leagues being canceled by the pandemic in 2020. Despite not yet making his professional debut, Baseball America considered him to be Seattle’s #12 prospect going into 2021. He was able to return to the mound that year, making 15 starts between High-A and Double-A, posting a 3.31 ERA in that time along with a 25.5% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate.
He was bumped up to the #8 spot on BA’s ranking of Mariner prospects for 2022, but that would end up being a tumultuous season for him. He had a 5.28 ERA through 18 Double-A starts. He dropped his walk rate to 5.9% but he also allowed 13 home runs in 87 innings. Nonetheless, the Reds still liked him enough to make him one of the four prospects they acquired in the Castillo deal. He finished strong after the trade, tossing five scoreless innings in a Double-A start before getting bumped to Triple-A for his final six starts, registering a 3.32 ERA in that time. BA ranked him #16 in the Reds’ system coming into 2023.
Stoudt would have been Rule 5 eligible this past December but the Reds added him to their roster to prevent him from being selected. He’s made three more Triple-A starts in the early going here with a 4.09 ERA, though an 18% walk rate, .185 batting average on balls in play and 94.2% strand rate suggest he probably deserved worse. Regardless, it’s a small sample and the club has decided he’s ready to try the big leagues.
It seems like Stoudt will be the replacement for Connor Overton, who was placed on the injured list over the weekend. Stoudt will slot into the club’s rotation alongside Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft and Luis Cessa for now. Luke Weaver has been on a rehab assignment after starting the season on the injured list and seemed in line to jump to the big leagues this week, though it’s unclear why Stoudt is now taking the spot instead.
Reds Sign Hunter Greene To Six-Year Extension
The Reds have committed to a key member of their rotation. Cincinnati announced Tuesday evening they’ve signed Hunter Greene to a six-year deal covering the 2023-28 seasons and containing a club option for 2029. It’s reportedly a $53MM guarantee, including a $2MM buyout on a $21MM option for the ’29 season. The deal also contains various escalators and awards bonuses that could push the total earnings to $96.2MM. Greene is a CAA client.
The salary structure breaks down as follows:
- $2MM signing bonus
- $1MM salary in 2023
- $3MM in 2024
- $6MM in 2025
- $8MM in 2026
- $15MM in 2027
- $16MM in 2028
- $21MM club option with $2MM buyout in 2029
Greene entered this season with exactly one year of major league service after breaking camp with the team last season. The deal buys out his final two pre-arbitration seasons, all three arbitration years and at least one free agent year with an option for a second.
The 23-year-old righty was selected by the Reds with the second overall pick in the 2017 draft. Though he was drafted as a two-way player, he dropped the offensive portion of his game while in the minors and has been entirely focused on pitching. He required Tommy John surgery as a prospect in 2019 but that did little to diminish his tremendous prospect stock. He still had his trademark triple-digit heater and wipeout slider when he returned. The minor leagues were canceled by the pandemic in 2020 but Greene fared well in his return to competitive ball the year after. He posted a 3.30 ERA in 106 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, striking out 31.7% of batters faced while walking 8.9%.
He was selected to the club’s 40-man roster after that season to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, but it wasn’t clear if the club would carry him on their Opening Day roster. In the end, Greene did indeed make the club out of camp, sticking with them all year long apart from an August injured list stint and subsequent rehab assignment. He made 24 starts in the big leagues, logging 125 2/3 innings with a 4.44 ERA. He struck out 30.9% of batters faced, walked 9% of opponents, and got grounders at a 29.3% clip. It wasn’t a completely dominant showing, but it was a solid debut for a 22-year-old getting his first taste of the big leagues.
Greene is off to a similar beginning to the season in 2023. Through four starts and 17 innings, he owns a 4.24 ERA. He’s punched out just under 31% of opponents while generating swinging strikes on a strong 13.5% of his offerings. It’s little surprise Greene has missed plenty of bats with a fastball that averages north of 99 MPH. Home runs were his main concern last year, as his modest ground ball numbers translated into a lofty 1.72 homers allowed per nine innings. To his credit, Greene has allowed just one longball thus far in 2023.
If he can consistently keep the ball in the yard, it’s not hard to envision him sticking at the top of a rotation. Few young pitchers can match Greene’s raw arm strength and he’s long shown solid control for a young flamethrower. Greene has handled left and right-handed batters in his brief big league time as well. Between him and fellow top ten pick Nick Lodolo (plus mid-rotation grounder specialist Graham Ashcraft), the Reds have the nucleus of an excellent rotation they hope to lead them out of their ongoing rebuild.
Greene had been on a trajectory to reach arbitration for the first time after 2024 and reach free agency after 2027. The Reds tack on two years of club control while leaving him an opportunity to hit the open market at a relatively young age. Greene would be on track to hit free agency headed into his age-30 season if the Reds exercise their option. He locks in strong earnings to safeguard against injury or performance risk while retaining the possibility of a significant free agent deal down the line.
The $53MM guarantee is the second-largest for a pitcher with between one and two years of big league service. Spencer Strider set the record last October with a six-year, $75MM deal. Greene falls short of that mark but didn’t have the kind of rookie season the Atlanta hurler put together in 2022, when he worked to a 2.67 ERA with an eye-popping 38.3% strikeout percentage in 131 2/3 innings. Greene’s deal easily checks in second in the service group, with Madison Bumgarner’s decade-old $35MM extension representing the record mark until Strider put pen to paper.
Cincinnati didn’t have a single player under guaranteed contract beyond this season. Option buyouts for the likes of Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Wil Myers and Curt Casali represented the Reds’ only commitments. There’s plenty of breathing room and obvious motivation for the Reds to start committing to core players. Speculatively speaking, players like Lodolo, Ashcraft, Tyler Stephenson and Jonathan India could be next on the front office’s list of extension targets.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Reds and Greene had agreed to a six-year, $53MM extension and reported the option value. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the contract could max out at $96.2MM. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the salary and escalator specifics.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Rob Manfred Expresses Support For Limit On Contract Length; Tony Clark Calls That Non-Starter For MLBPA
Rob Manfred addressed a key point of the league’s economic structure in an appearance at the World Congress of Sports this evening. The MLB commissioner expressed support for a limitation on contract length, calling it a desire of ownership groups around the league (link via Evan Drellich of the Athletic).
“A reform that has been of interest to ownership for a number of years is a limitation of contract length,” Manfred said in response to a question about a potential upper bound on long-term deals. “Obviously players love it, it gives them financial security for a very long period of time. The difficulty — and I think players will come to appreciate this as time goes by — those contracts result in a transfer from the current stars to yesterday’s stars. At some point, that has to be true. And I think it is an issue that is important for us to stay focused on, because it creates inflexibility that affects the quality of the teams that you put on the field.”
The notion of a maximum contract length drew a sharp rebuke from MLBPA executive director Tony Clark. “The public statements from Rob Manfred about the owners’ desire to limit guaranteed contracts is just one more in a series of statements attacking fundamental aspects of baseball’s free market system and the freedom of clubs and players to structure deals in the best interests of all parties,” Clark told Drellich. “The ability of individual clubs to act in their own self-interest in determining how best to put an exciting product on the field for their fans is not something that should be restricted. Anyone who believes that players would ever endorse an assault by management on guaranteed contracts is badly mistaken.”
It’s not shocking to hear of league interest in capping contracts, nor is it a surprise Clark framed that notion as a non-starter. Any kind of contract length cap would have to be collectively bargained. It’s impossible to envision the union entertaining that possibility during the next round of CBA negotiations four years from now.
Debates about contract length have been prevalent since the advent of free agency. Teams’ risk tolerance to commit to players deep into their 30s waned as research mounted about the likelihood of the aging curve sapping production towards the end of a deal. There’s certainly some truth in Manfred’s assertion that the back end of long-term contracts (particularly free agent deals) tend not to offer clubs’ a great return on investment.
However, overpaying for diminished production towards the back of a player’s career is a risk/reward calculation for clubs. Teams are left to weigh long-term downside versus the short-term benefit of adding a player for potential prime seasons during the early portion of a contract. Accepting some potentially unproductive seasons towards the back of a free agent deal is often the tradeoff for upgrading the roster in the short term. A contract length limit would have some element of protecting teams from their own decisions.
The game’s current economic structure is built on the premise that free agency is a right secured by players later in their careers. Pre-arbitration and arbitration salaries are designed to pay players at below-market rates for their first six-plus years. While some players debut young enough to hit free agency right as they’re entering their prime, the majority of first-time free agents get to the open market in the middle or at the tail end of their expected best seasons.
In many cases, teams are disincentivized to extend long-term contracts in recognition of the risk of diminished performance down the line. However, in some instances, the existence of another measure designed to limit spending paradoxically pushes clubs in the direction of longer-term deals.
Teams’ luxury tax calculations are based on the average annual salaries of their contractual commitments. In the past few offseasons, some high-spending franchises have elected to stretch deals over an extra season or two in order to reduce the AAV and associated tax hit. The Phillies’ deals for Bryce Harper (13 years, $330MM) and Trea Turner (11 years, $300MM), Mets’ contract with Brandon Nimmo (eight years, $162MM), and Padres’ agreements with Xander Bogaerts (11 years, $280MM) and Yu Darvish (five years, $90MM) are examples to varying degrees.
MLB was reportedly planning to intervene on contract length at one point last offseason. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman wrote that San Diego was preparing to offer Aaron Judge $400MM over 14 years, a deal that would’ve run through age-44. Judge returned to the Yankees regardless, but Heyman reported that the league would’ve viewed that contract as a circumvention of the luxury tax had it been accepted. How the MLBPA would have responded is unclear.
That intervention would have been specifically about a team going too far (in MLB’s view) to massage its tax bill. It would not have had anything to do with a categorical limit on contract length. San Diego’s 14-year extension with Fernando Tatis Jr. garnered league approval a few years ago, as it “only” ran through Tatis’ age-35 campaign.
A limit on contract length is not without precedent within the North American sports landscape. The collective bargaining agreements for the NBA and NHL each have variable maximum contract lengths based on whether a player previously played for the team signing the deal (and in the NBA’s case, an age-based provision). Those leagues each have salary caps, though, reflecting lesser leverage on the part of their respective Players Associations than the MLBPA has. The MLB players union surely won’t have any interest in entertaining this question so long as they have negotiating leverage.
A’s Notes: Diaz, Miller, Jimenez
The A’s are planning to recall infield prospect Jordan Diaz, as first reported by Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El ExtraBase (Twitter link). The 22-year-old infielder has spent the year on optional assignment to Triple-A Las Vegas.
Díaz debuted in the big leagues late last season. The Colombian-born infielder got into 15 games, hitting .265/.294/.327 through his first 51 plate appearances. He only struck out seven times but walked just twice and has yet to connect on an MLB homer. Díaz had posted excellent numbers between Double-A Midland and Las Vegas prior to his promotion, combining to hit .326/.366/.515 in 120 minor league games.
After 11 more contests in Triple-A, Oakland is bringing Díaz back up the majors. He’ll add a bat-first infielder to a mix that also includes Aledmys Díaz, Jace Peterson, Tony Kemp and Kevin Smith. The #12 prospect in the system according to Baseball America, Díaz will look to hit enough to offset questions about his ideal defensive home.
Díaz isn’t the most notable forthcoming prospect promotion for the A’s. Oakland announced earlier today they were promoting pitching prospect Mason Miller to make his big league debut. General manager David Forst subsequently informed the club’s beat that the A’s were planning to keep Miller in the rotation from here on out (relayed by Martín Gallegos of MLB.com). With the revelation it’s not simply a spot start for the 24-year-old, Oakland will have to either turn to a six-man starting staff or bump someone from the rotation.
None of Oakland’s starters has fared especially well thus far. JP Sears has the lowest ERA in the group at 4.60. Each of Shintaro Fujinami, Ken Waldichuk and James Kaprielian has allowed more than a run per inning. Opening Day starter Kyle Muller sports a 7.23 ERA with a modest 15.1% strikeout rate.
Everyone in the group still has minor league options remaining. That could lead to one of them being demoted to Las Vegas, but it’s also possible the club looks into a bullpen or swing role for a struggling starter. The A’s were dealt a hit to the relief corps this afternoon, as righty Dany Jiménez went on the 15-day injured list with a shoulder strain.
Jiménez operated as the club’s primary closer at points last season. He’s picked up the team’s only save thus far in 2023, though his overall results have been rough. The 29-year-old has walked six with only four strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings. He’s allowed four runs and seen sharp dips in his swinging strikes and velocity. It seems clear he has not been operating at full strength. The team hasn’t provided a return timetable, though a shoulder strain prematurely ended his 2022 campaign in late August.
Mets Place Carlos Carrasco On Injured List
The Mets announced this evening that starter Carlos Carrasco is headed to the 15-day injured list, retroactive to April 16, due to inflammation in his throwing elbow. New York recalled reliever Jeff Brigham from Triple-A Syracuse to take the active roster spot. The club also announced that reliever Dennis Santana cleared waivers and was outrighted to Syracuse after being designated for assignment over the weekend.
Manager Buck Showalter told the team’s beat that Carrasco will head back to New York to undergo imaging (relayed by Tim Healey of Newsday). It’s not yet clear what the issue is or how severe it might be, but it’s a concerning development for a 36-year-old pitcher. Carrasco has spent time on the IL in each of his first three seasons as a Met. He lost a chunk of the first half in 2021 to a hamstring strain and missed a bit of time last year with an oblique issue. He’s generally avoided elbow concerns in recent years, though he did undergo Tommy John surgery over a decade ago while playing for Cleveland.
The start to the season hasn’t gone well for the veteran righty. He’s been tagged for 13 runs in 13 2/3 innings over his first three starts. Carrasco has eight strikeouts and walks apiece and has already surrendered a trio of home runs. He’s also battled a velocity dip. Carrasco’s average fastball speed has checked in at 91.3 MPH; that’s down nearly two ticks from last season’s 93.2 MPH average. He certainly hasn’t appeared to be at full strength and the IL stint reflects that.
Carrasco joins Justin Verlander and José Quintana as expected rotation members on the shelf. Quintana won’t be back until midseason but Verlander should be able to make his team debut before too long. Verlander is tentatively scheduled to throw a live batting practice session on Sunday, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. He’ll be on a five-day throwing program from that point, with a minor league rehab start the anticipated next step. That points towards a potential MLB return in the first week of May if all goes as planned.
In the meantime, the Mets will have to plug another rotation vacancy. Injuries to Verlander and Quintana forced the team to call upon David Peterson and Tylor Megill. The likes of José Butto and Joey Lucchesi project as the next line of defense. Butto was already called up for a spot start against the A’s over the weekend. He was promptly optioned out and has to spend 15 days in the minors unless he’s replacing someone who lands on the IL. Considering he wasn’t the corresponding promotion with Carrasco’s placement, that might point towards Lucchesi getting a call later this week.
Santana lost his roster spot as part of the shuffling to accommodate Butto’s promotion last Saturday. The sinkerballer has bounced around via trade or on waivers since the start of the offseason. He’d made seven appearances for the Mets this year, allowing six runs over 7 2/3 frames. Santana has over three years of major league service time and has the right to refuse an outright assignment. Doing so would require forfeiting his $1MM salary, however, so it’s likely he’ll report to Syracuse and try to pitch his way back onto the MLB radar. He’d reach minor league free agency at season’s end if he’s not first added to the 40-man roster.