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A’s Notes: Pinder, Brown, Laureano

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With Stephen Vogt’s retirement announcement last week, the A’s only have one impending free agent who plans to continue playing in 2023. Chad Pinder is set to hit the open market for the first time, but the career-long Athletic tells Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle he’d welcome a return to Oakland.

“I don’t know what their plans are — I’m not sure they know,” Pinder said of the A’s front office. “I know they’re doing a good job right now of trying to find the pieces of the puzzle, young guys to be the core next year. And for me, honestly, that’s been fun to watch. Because I remember being part of that at one point. But yeah, I would never discount coming back here. It’s a place that’s special to me.”

A third-round draftee in 2013, Pinder debuted three years later and has been a frequently-utilized utilityman. The 2022 campaign is the fourth in which he’s partaken in more than half the A’s games, and he’s likely to set a new career mark in plate appearances. Pinder has tallied 362 trips to the plate this year, just eight shy of 2019’s figure with a bit more than a week to play. While manager Mark Kotsay has pencilled him into the lineup fairly frequently, Pinder has struggled through a down year. He owns a .230/.258/.384 line with a personal-worst 31.5% strikeout rate and a minuscule 3.9% walk rate.

Despite his disappointing numbers at the dish, Kotsay tells Kawahara he’d “love to have Pinder back here.” The 30-year-old has drawn praise from both Kotsay and former Oakland skipper Bob Melvin for his clubhouse presence, and he’s been a decent platoon bat over the course of his career. The right-handed hitter owns a .263/.322/.459 career line against left-handed pitching, although he’s just a .224/.271/.387 hitter versus same-handed opponents.

Pinder has mostly been limited to corner outfield work this season, but he has a fair bit of infield experience as well. He’s split time with lefty-swinging Tony Kemp and Conner Capel in the corners over the past couple weeks, while Kotsay has somewhat surprisingly turned to Seth Brown in center field. Brown had started just two MLB games in center field coming into this season, but he’s picked up ten starts there this year. In a separate piece, Kawahara writes the A’s are getting a look there to gauge whether Brown could be a candidate for more center field work next season.

It seems unlikely the A’s would want to count on the 30-year-old for anything more than emergency work up the middle. Brown has played almost exclusively first base or the corner outfield in his MLB career, and public defensive metrics were down on his work in the corners this year. It’s hard to envision him playing anything more than a fringy center field. The A’s are nevertheless giving him run at the position over Cristian Pache, who came over from the Braves in the Matt Olson blockbuster. Pache is on the active roster and is an excellent defensive center fielder, but he’s looked overmatched at the plate at both the MLB and Triple-A levels.

Brown, on the other hand, has had a quietly strong season at the plate. The left-handed hitter owns a .233/.306/.458 line with a team-leading 25 home runs across 517 trips. That’s been driven by an excellent second half of the season. Brown is hitting .261/.358/.554 with 15 longballs since the All-Star Break. Brown is tied for third in the majors in homers since the Break, topped only by Aaron Judge and Manny Machado. That’ll certainly earn him everyday run next year, even if he seems likelier to return to a corner position. Brown won’t reach arbitration eligibility until after next season and is controllable through 2026.

Another corner outfield spot could belong to Ramón Laureano, who played primarily right field this year after rating poorly in center. Laureano looked like a potential trade candidate, but he had a rough 2022 campaign. Delayed to start the year after a positive performance-enhancing drug test last sumner, he hit only .211/.287/.376 over 383 plate appearances. Laureano landed on the injured list a couple weeks ago with a right hamstring strain, and head trainer Nick Paparesta informed reporters over the weekend that he’s not expected to return this season (via Martín Gallegos of MLB.com). The 28-year-old recently received a platelet-rich plasma injection to address a separate issue in his right hip.

Laureano’s path to free agency was delayed by a year, since he unable to collect MLB service while serving his suspension. He’s now arbitration-eligible through 2025 and will be due a modest raise on this season’s $2.45MM salary. The retooling A’s will probably be open to trade offers this winter, but it’s hard to envision another club meeting Oakland’s asking price after Laureano’s rough season.

The Cardinals’ Second-Half Breakout Outfielder

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The Cardinals have been among the sport’s most consistently successfully clubs in recent years, finishing above .500 each season since 2008. Among the reasons for those perennially strong results: the team’s knack for developing players from the middle tier of the farm system into successful major leaguers.

That ability to churn out productive hitters is a key factor in the club closing in on an NL Central title. Plenty of attention has been devoted to the MVP-caliber contributions of corner infielders Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt and the incredible turnaround for Albert Pujols, who collected his 700th career homer last Friday. That’s well-deserved, but it shouldn’t obscure from the production the club has gotten outside the middle of the lineup.

There are a few players who’ve been instrumental pieces of Oliver Marmol’s lineup. Tommy Edman has played Gold Glove caliber defense at both middle infield positions and stolen 31 bases. Even with roughly league average hitting, he’s been worth between five and six wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. Brendan Donovan will probably get some third-place votes in NL Rookie of the Year balloting thanks to an excellent .279/.389/.377 line across 436 plate appearances. Yet neither player has been as impactful for St. Louis in the second half as second-year outfielder Lars Nootbaar.

Like Edman and Donovan, Nootbaar was a mid-round draftee. An eighth-round pick out of USC in 2018, he didn’t appear on an organizational prospect ranking at Baseball America before making his MLB debut last June. The left-handed hitter posted a league average .239/.317/.422 showing in 58 games as a rookie, but he didn’t have a place in a season-opening outfield of Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader and Dylan Carlson. Nootbaar saw a fair bit of pinch hit work early in the season, tallying 101 plate appearances in 40 games through the All-Star Break. St. Louis optioned him to Triple-A on three separate occasions, including a nearly month-long stint between April and May.

Nootbaar wasn’t especially productive during that early-season work. A plantar fasciitis diagnosis for Bader pushed Carlson from right field to center in late June, opening up the former position. St. Louis then dealt the injured Bader to the Yankees at the August 2 trade deadline, subtracting from the big league outfield to address their rotation needs by bringing in Jordan Montgomery. That marked a show of faith in both Carlson to handle the increased defensive demands up the middle, and in Nootbaar to hold his own with regular playing time in right field.

St. Louis brass has to be pleased with the way Nootbaar has taken to the opportunity. Since deadline day, he’s hitting .228/.362/.497 with nine home runs and seven doubles over 185 plate appearances. While the batting average isn’t eye-catching, he ranks 37th in on-base percentage and 30th in slugging among 149 qualified hitters over that stretch. Overall, Nootbaar’s season line is up to .229/.345/.458 in 316 plate appearances, offense that checks in 29 points above league average by measure of wRC+.

The results are strong as is, but the more impressive aspect is that Nootbaar has found success with dismal ball in play results. He owns a .221 BABIP since deadline day, the sixth-lowest mark among qualifiers. That’s not entirely attributable to poor fortune; Nootbaar hasn’t hit many line drives over this stretch. Yet he’s both hitting the ball hard and showing a strong awareness for the strike zone. His 17.3% walk rate since the deadline is topped only by Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, and he’s one of eight qualified batters with more free passes than punchouts. His 91.6 MPH average exit velocity and 47.5% hard contact rate, meanwhile, are each decidedly better than average.

Nootbaar’s production has tailed off in September following a scorching August, largely thanks to a woeful .146 BABIP this month. The power, plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills have largely remained intact, however. He has a 10:13 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 68 September plate appearances, and he’s connected on six extra-base hits (including four longballs).

During his first extended action as an everyday major league player, Nootbaar has shown plus power potential, an extremely discerning eye and decent bat-to-ball skills. Even if his line drive rate stays down, he’s shown the ability to be productive despite a subpar batting average. If Nootbaar can improve upon his bat control even slightly, he has a chance to be a well above-average offensive player.

He’ll certainly need more than two months of solid production to cement himself as a core piece of the organization’s future, but he’s played his way into an everyday outfield job heading into the playoffs. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak, GM Michael Girsch and the rest of the front office took a risk in dealing from their outfield in the middle of a contested division race. Nootbaar has, thus far, rewarded their faith by effectively stepping into that vacancy.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mariners Expect To Activate Eugenio Suarez On Tuesday

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The Mariners are likely to reinstate Eugenio Suárez from the injured list tomorrow, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times and Curtis Crabtree of Fox 13). He’ll be deployed as a designated hitter initially, as the fracture in his right index finger is still inhibiting him defensively.

In even better news for the M’s, Dipoto said star center fielder Julio Rodríguez “looks great” as he rehabs from the lower back strain that sent him to the injured list last week. Dipoto indicated the club anticipates he’ll be ready for reinstatement when first eligible next Monday.

Getting both players back after brief absences is critical for a Mariners team trying to secure its first playoff berth in over two decades. The M’s enter play Monday with an 83-69 record that has them in possession of the American League’s final Wild Card spot. They’re four games clear of the Orioles, and they’re within 2 1/2 games of both the Blue Jays and Rays as they jockey for Wild Card position.

Assuming the Mariners hold onto a playoff spot in some capacity, they look likely to enter the postseason with both Suárez and Rodríguez on the roster. That duo has arguably been Seattle’s top two position players this year. Rodríguez has emerged as the face of the franchise with an incredible rookie season, hitting .280/.342/.502 with 27 home runs and 25 stolen bases across 549 plate appearances. Suárez, meanwhile, leads the team with 31 homers and has a .235/.335/.470 line. It has been a surprising bounceback after a .198/.286/.428 showing his final year with the Reds.

The Mariners have turned to Ty France and Abraham Toro at third base in Suárez’s absence. They’ll presumably continue to split the hot corner until he’s ready to return to action defensively, while Jesse Winker will probably get more action in left field after serving as the DH of late. That’d come at the expense of playing time for Sam Haggerty and Taylor Trammell. Center field, meanwhile, has been the purview of Jarred Kelenic since Rodríguez went down.

Mariners Sign Luis Castillo To Extension

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SEPTEMBER 26: Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports the financial breakdown. Castillo receives a $7MM signing bonus and a $10MM salary for next season, followed by successive $22.75MM salaries between 2024-27. The ’28 options vests if Castillo throws 180 innings in 2027 and receives confirmation from an independent physician after the season that he hasn’t suffered an injury that’d require him to begin the following year on the injured list. The deal also contains a $1MM assignment bonus that’d kick in if he were traded at any point between 2025-27.

SEPTEMBER 24: Luis Castillo has gone from trade deadline prize to franchise cornerstone, as the right-hander has signed a five-year, $108MM extension with the Mariners. The deal could be worth up to $133MM based on a vesting option for the 2028 season, and that option vests if Castillo throws at least 180 innings in 2027. The Mariners can also receive a $5MM club option Castillo’s services for 2028 should he miss more than 130 days in 2025-27 due to a UCL repair procedure. Castillo will also receive a full no-trade clause for the extension’s first three seasons.

Castillo was slated to become a free agent after the 2023 season, but the Republik Sports client will instead stick with the Mariners for at least four years beyond that original date. The Mariners’ official announcement of the extension included statements from both Castillo and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto.

“Luis has been one of the top pitchers in MLB over the past six seasons,” Dipoto said. “He is a dynamic power pitcher in the prime of his career with a track record of consistency. Bringing him to Seattle represented a key moment in our ongoing efforts to build a championship roster. Similarly, this deal illustrates our continued commitment to both the present and future of this team.”

“I feel great,” Castillo said. “Every baseball player wants to have a dream like this become a reality. I’m happy I was able to accomplish this with the Mariners and I want to thank everybody in the organization for treating me so well.”

Castillo, 29, began his major league career with the Reds, establishing himself as an excellent starting pitcher. From his 2017 debut through 2021, he made 123 starts and pitched to an ERA of 3.72. That mark is all the more impressive given the hitter-friendly nature of Great American Ball Park, with both Statcast and ESPN ranking it second behind Coors Field in that department. He was able to attain that level of success by getting ground balls on 53.9% of batted balls while striking out 26.2% of hitters faced, both of those numbers being much better than league average. He also displayed adequate control, walking 8.8% of hitters who came to the plate, a mark that’s roughly league average. He produced 14.5 wins above replacement in that time, according to FanGraphs, a mark that ranks among the top 20 among all pitchers in the league.

The most recent offseason got off to an ominous start for the Reds, as general manager Nick Krall said that the club “must align our payroll to our resources and continue focusing on scouting and developing young talent from within our system” in the wake of Tucker Barnhart’s trade to the Tigers. Trade rumors immediately began swirling around Castillo, along with his rotation mates Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle. Gray would be dealt to Minnesota in March but the Reds hung onto Mahle and Castillo to start the year. Castillo was slowed by some shoulder soreness early in camp but returned to the mound in May and didn’t show any rust when retaking the hill. Through 14 starts with Cincy, he had an ERA of 2.86 along with a 47.1% ground ball rate, 25.8% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate.

Despite Castillo’s contributions, the Reds unsurprisingly got poor results overall with their ongoing selloff. Castillo was once again the focus of trade rumors as the deadline approached, with the Padres, Twins, Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Cardinals and Astros among those showing interest. Ultimately, the Mariners won the bidding by sending prospects Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo, Levi Stoudt and Andrew Moore to Cincinnati. Since the trade, Castillo has continued his excellent season by making another nine starts with a 2.83 ERA, 29.1% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate. It seems the M’s got exactly what they wanted out of Castillo and locked him up long-term.

The price point is something of a surprise, given the most recent comparison is probably José Berríos. After being acquired by Blue Jays last year, Berríos was heading into his final year before free agency but agreed to a seven-year, $131MM extension. Berríos is having a terrible year here in 2022 but was actually on pretty similar footing to Castillo when he signed that deal. From 2017 to 2021, Berríos produced 15.2 fWAR, the same stretch that saw Castillo produce 14.5. Castillo has agreed to delay his free agency in exchange for less money and fewer years, though a higher average annual value. Berríos’ deal comes with an AAV of $18.7 whereas Castillo’s is $21.6MM, though if he vests the option it would take it up to $22.17MM.

For the Mariners, it’s still a significant investment in a starting pitcher, their second in the past year. They signed Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115MM deal back in November. Those two will now continue forming a core in the rotation for at least the next four seasons after this one. Logan Gilbert, whom the club drafted and developed, isn’t slated to reach free agency until after the 2027 season. George Kirby is one year behind Gilbert and should be around through the 2028 campaign, giving the M’s a core four that can anchor the rotation for quite some time. There’s also Marco Gonzales, whose contract runs through 2024 with a club option for 2025. The club is so awash in starting pitching that Chris Flexen, who triggered a vesting option for 2023, has been bumped to bullpen duty despite a 3.69 ERA on the season.

The Mariners haven’t made the postseason since 2001, the largest active playoff drought in the majors. They are well-positioned to snap that streak here in 2022, currently holding down the final American League Wild Card spot with a three-game cushion over the Orioles. With their rotation seemingly set for years to come and a position player core that includes Julio Rodriguez, J.P. Crawford, Eugenio Suarez and others, they should continue competing into the future as well.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter links) was the first to report about Castillo’s extension, and the clause related to the UCL injury. Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reported the 180-inning threshold for the vesting option, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported the details of Castillo’s no-trade protection.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Brewers Outright Jonathan Davis

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The Brewers have sent Jonathan Davis outright to the Triple-A Nashville Sounds, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. There had not been any public indication that Davis had been designated for assignment but the club evidently quietly slipped him through waivers in recent days.

Davis, 30, was originally drafted by the Blue Jays in 2013 and stayed in that organization through August of 2021, before going to the Yankees on a waiver claim. He made his MLB debut in 2018 and spent the next few years oscillating between the minors and the majors, getting into 134 total games by the end of 2021. Davis has got the life of a speedy outfielder with strong defense but never provided much with the bat in the big leagues. He went from the Jays to the Yankees on a waiver claim before being outrighted, electing free agency and signing a minor league deal with the Brewers for 2022.

He was selected to Milwaukee’s 40-man roster in June and got into 37 games this year. He stole seven bases and was worth four Outs Above Average in center field in that short time, but hit just .224/.344/.237 for a wRC+ of 77. That’s a bit better than his career line of .185/.291/.245 but still below league-average.

Davis was placed on the injured list in late August due to a right elbow effusion and began a rehab assignment on September 9. It seems the club didn’t want Davis to retake his roster spot and outrighted him rather than putting him back in the majors. As a player who has previously been outrighted in his career, Davis can reject the assignment and elect free agency. It’s not clear if he has done so, though even if he accepts, he would have that right again at the end of the season.

Diamondbacks Option Alek Thomas

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The Diamondbacks announced that outfielder Jake McCarthy was reinstated from the bereavement list. In a corresponding move, fellow outfielder Alek Thomas was optioned to Triple-A Reno.

Thomas, 22, was initially promoted to the big leagues in May while considered one of the top prospects in the sport at the time. Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs all had him in the top 40 on their respective lists of the best youngsters around the league. Unfortunately, he hasn’t hit the ground running in his first shot at the big leagues, producing a batting line of .231/.275/.344 through his first 113 games for a wRC+ of 71, or 29% below league average.

He’s managed to keep the strikeouts down to a rate of 18%, which is a few ticks below the 22.3% league average this year. However, he’s also walked at a below-average 5.4% rate and isn’t doing much damage when he makes contact. His .263 batting average on balls in play could involve some bad luck, but he’s also in just the 21st percentile in terms of hard hit percentage, the 12th percentile for barrel rate and 20th in average exit velocity. He is in the 75th percentile in terms of max exit velocity, which suggests he can do damage when he does square the ball up. He’s just not doing it very often so far.

It’s not all doom and gloom, as Thomas has a solid floor because of his speed and defense. He has 94th percentile sprint speed and is in the 92nd percentile in terms of Outs Above Average. If the bat can take a step forward and start to resemble his production in the minor leagues, he would become an incredibly valuable and well-rounded player.

The Diamondbacks are flush with outfielders, which is seemingly what has nudged Thomas out of the picture for now. Daulton Varsho has seemingly made a permanent move from catching to the outfield, according to reporting from earlier this month. He joins an outfield mix that includes Thomas, McCarthy, Stone Garrett, Jordan Luplow and Corbin Carroll. Like Thomas, Carroll was a highly-touted prospect who made his debut this year, but with much more success. Through 24 games, Carroll is hitting .256/.318/.474 for a wRC+ of 119. With Varsho, Garrett and McCarthy all also hitting well, the club has a bevy of outfield options at its disposal at the moment.

The Diamondbacks are well out of contention with just over a week left in the regular season, meaning the remaining games will primarily be for evaluating players and gathering information for the future. In that context, it’s noteworthy that Thomas has been squeezed out here. During the offseason, there figures to be plenty of speculation about the club using its strong outfield depth to upgrade other parts of the roster, with varying opinions about who is most likely to be moved. This demotion certainly doesn’t mean Thomas has been erased from the team’s plans, as he’s still only 22 years old and prospects don’t always develop in a linear fashion. Though it does perhaps indicate that some less-hyped outfielders like McCarthy and Garrett have played well enough to earn longer looks and complicate the picture. McCarthy is hitting .288/.352/.446 this year for a 124 wRC+ in 91 games. Garrett has gotten into just 22 games but has hit .318/.352/.621 in that time for a wRC+ of 165.

From a service time perspective, this won’t have an immediate impact on Thomas. He was promoted a month after Opening Day and was always going to come up short of one year of service time in 2022. This demotion, assuming he doesn’t return, will only cost him about ten days from his tally. (Optional assignments for position players come with a ten-day minimum but an exception is made if another player is going on the injured list.) Though if Thomas continues to be outside the team’s immediate outfield plans, future optional assignments could push back his free agency or arbitration eligibility.

Pirates Designate Michael Chavis, Greg Allen For Assignment

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The Pirates have announced a handful of roster moves prior to tonight’s game, with infielder/outfielder Miguel Andujar, who was claimed off waivers from the Yankees yesterday, reporting to the team to take his place on the active roster. Additionally, catcher Jose Godoy has had his contract selected. In corresponding moves, infielder Michael Chavis and outfielder Greg Allen have been designated for assignment.

Chavis, 27, was drafted by the Red Sox and spent the first few years of his MLB career there as a highly-touted prospect, cracking Baseball America’s top 100 in 2018. After a tepid showing in his first tastes of the majors, he came to Pittsburgh in a July 2021 trade that sent Austin Davis the other way. Chavis’s tenure in Pittsburgh got off to a good start as he hit .357/.357/.500 after the trade last year, though an elbow strain limited him to just 12 games. He’s had a much larger sample here in 2022, making 426 plate appearances over 129 games, but hasn’t been able to do much with it. Despite launching 14 long balls on the year, he’s struck out in 29.6% of his plate appearances while walking in only 4.5% of them. On the whole, his batting line for the year is .229/.265/.389, production that’s 21% below league average according to wRC+.

Despite that lackluster output at the plate, Chavis has at least provided defensive versatility, spending time at first, second and third base this year. He passed three years of MLB service time this year and was going to be eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason. It seems the Bucs weren’t planning on keeping him around with a higher salary next year and have effectively given him an early non-tender. With the trade deadline long gone, the Bucs will have no options except to put Chavis on outright waivers or release waivers. If any team believed Chavis could take his bat to another level, they could put in a claim. As mentioned, Chavis would be due an arbitration raise for next year if he finds another roster spot, though he also has an option year remaining.

Allen, 29, is in his sixth MLB season, having donned a few jerseys in that time. He began his career with Cleveland before bouncing to the Padres and Yankees. The Pirates claimed him off waivers from the Yanks in November but placed Allen on the 60-day injured list on Opening Day with a left hamstring injury. He was activated in July but has hit just .186/.260/.271 in 46 games since, striking out in 31.3% of his plate appearances. Like Chavis, he crossed three years of MLB service time this year and was headed into the arbitration process for the first time. He’ll be placed on waivers in the coming days to see if any team is intrigued enough to give him a roster spot and pay bump. Despite the poor showing at the plate this year, he stole eight bases and provided above-average outfield defense. Neither player would be eligible for postseason play with a new club, as players must be in a team’s system prior to September 1 in order to qualify.

Godoy, 27, began the year with the Mariners before going to the Giants, Twins and Pirates on a series of waiver claims. He’s a well-regarded defender behind the plate but hasn’t shown much with the bat at the major league level. His career batting line is .128/.212/.149, though in a small sample of just 52 plate appearances. The Bucs have been using Jason Delay as their primary catcher with Zack Collins as the backup, though Collins has also been spending some time at first base. Godoy’s promotion will give them a more traditional backup catcher for the final stretch of the schedule.

Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported the moves before the official announcement.

Read The Transcript Of Today’s Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson

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Brad Johnson has been writing about fantasy baseball for more than a decade and has considerable experience in Roto, H2H, dynasty, DFS, and experimental formats. As an expert in the field, Brad participates in the Tout Wars Draft and Hold format and was crowned the league’s winner in 2020. Brad’s writing experience includes RotoGraphs, NBC SportsEDGE, and right here at MLB Trade Rumors. He’s also presented at the First Pitch Arizona fantasy baseball conference.

We’ll be hosting fantasy baseball-focused chats with Brad regularly, and feel free to drop him some questions on Twitter @BaseballATeam as well.

Click here to read the transcript/a>.

Poll: National League Rookie Of The Year

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This year’s National League Rookie of the Year voting will be a particularly fun one because the two front-runners happen to be teammates. Braves right-hander Spencer Strider and center fielder Michael Harris II both burst onto the scene in 2022 and both cemented themselves as building blocks in Atlanta. Wins above replacement is far, far from the be-all and end-all in ascertaining player value, but it’s still telling that Strider and Harris are both north of four WAR on the season (per both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs), while no other NL rookie has even three wins above replacement per either version of the metric.

Harris and Strider have both played at an All-Star level this season, though neither actually made the All-Star team this summer. That’s due largely to the fact that Strider began the season in the bullpen and Harris didn’t make his debut until late May. Given their play in 2022, that could change as early as next summer.

There’s still a bit of time for the bottom line to change, although with Strider on the 15-day injured list due to an oblique strain, his regular season is likely over. Harris will have another nine games to build his case, pending any off-days or an untimely injury of his own. Let’s take a quick look at each player’s candidacy.

A Quick Case for Strider

Dominant this season as both a reliever (2.22 ERA in 24 1/3 innings) and a starter (2.77 ERA, 107 1/3 innings), Strider leads all National League rookies with 131 2/3 innings pitched. Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene, a popular ROY pick prior to the season, is a distant second place at 113 2/3 innings. Strider’s gaudy 38.3% strikeout rate isn’t just the best among rookie pitchers in 2022 — it’s the best among all Major League pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings. Shane McClanahan is the only pitcher in Major League Baseball (again, min. 100 innings pitched) who has induced swinging strikes at a higher clip than Strider’s 15.5%.

Strider’s overall numbers — 131 2/3 innings, 2.67 ERA, 38.3% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate — are so dominant that if he had a few more innings on his resume, he’d be in the mix for some down-ballot Cy Young votes. (He may still get a handful, but he’s not going to stack up alongside the current leaders.)

A common argument against Strider is that he shouldn’t be favored because he plays less often than an everyday player (e.g. Harris). Firstly, unlike most of even the fringe ROY candidates, Strider broke camp with the Braves this year. He’s been on the roster since Opening Day, which Harris and others can’t claim.

Secondly, Strider has faced 528 batters this season and, were it not for the oblique injury, would’ve pushed that number close to 600. Even that 528 mark is greater than the total number of plate appearances for any National League rookie hitter. Strider (and pitchers in general) may appear in a fewer number of their team’s overall games, but as a pitcher, he has more direct influence on the outcome of every single plate appearance than any of the defenders behind him. On average, he faced 21.7 hitters per start. That’s nearly a week’s worth of plate appearances for a position player.

Put more succinctly, the counter-argument to that common knock on Strider is that hitters play a smaller role in determining the outcome of a large number of their team’s games; pitchers play a larger role in determining the outcome of a small number of their team’s games.

A Quick Case for Harris

In terms of wins above replacement, Harris trails only Julio Rodriguez for the rookie lead, per FanGraphs (4.8), and only Rodriguez and Cleveland’ Steven Kwan, per Baseball-Reference (5.1). He’s a dynamic player in all facets of the game, hitting .305/.346/.535 with 19 home runs and 19 steals apiece. Harris doesn’t walk much (4.7%) and strikes out a bit more than average (23.8%), but that hasn’t stopped him from being 43% better than the average hitter, by measure of wRC+ (or 42%, per OPS+).

Defensively, Harris looks like a future Gold Glover. He might not win one this season, as his cumulative defensive contributions are impacted by the fact that he spent nearly two months in the minors, but every publicly available metric is in agreement that he’s a plus, if not elite defender. In 949 innings of center field work, Harris has received standout marks from Defensive Runs Saved (7), Ultimate Zone Rating (3.9) and Statcast (6 Outs Above Average, 5 Runs Above Average), to name a few. Harris ranks in the 92nd percentile of Statcast’s Outs Above Average, the 87th percentile for his jumps on balls hit to the outfield, and in 94th percentile for pure sprint speed.

It’s true that Strider has more batters faced than Harris has plate appearances, but Harris has fielded far more balls in play in center field than Strider has on the mound. His value as a defensive player is far superior, particularly given his elite results in 2022. Harris also provides baserunning value that Strider doesn’t have the ability (or even the opportunity) to match. Despite appearing in just 106 games so far, Harris ranks 17th among all big leaguers in baserunning runs above average, per FanGraphs’ — a cumulative stat that incorporates more than just his impressive 19-for-21 showing in stolen bases.

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There’s really no wrong answer; both players have had sensational starts to their career and both have been absolutely vital pieces of a Braves team that trails the Mets by 1.5 games for the National League East lead. Still, only one of the two is going to take home Rookie of the Year honors in November. Who should it be?

Who should win National League Rookie of the Year honors?
Spencer Strider 50.34% (4,563 votes)
Michael Harris II 43.62% (3,954 votes)
Someone else (specify in comments) 6.03% (547 votes)
Total Votes: 9,064

Outrighted: Herget, Neuse, Sanchez

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A few updates on some recently DFA’ed players who passed through waivers, per the league’s transactions log at MLB.com…

  • Righty Kevin Herget, designated for for assignment Friday by the Rays, went unclaimed on waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Durham. Herget made his big league debut as a 31-year-old rookie this season after grinding through the minor leagues and independent baseball for more than nine years. He tossed just 2 2/3 frames and yielded a pair of runs in that time but also recorded his first big league strikeout. Even if Herget doesn’t get another look with the Rays in 2022, his excellent work in Triple-A this year should generate interest in minor  league free agency this winter. In 93 2/3 frames, he’s pitched to a 2.98 ERA with a strong 24.9% strikeout rate and an outstanding 3.9% walk rate.
  • Athletics infielder Sheldon Neuse cleared outright waivers and has been assigned to Triple-A Las Vegas. The 27-year-old logged a career-high 293 plate appearances in 2022 but recorded just a .214/.273/.288 slash with four homers, four doubles and a pair of triples in that time. Neuse has consistently produced at the Triple-A level, where he’s slashed .299/.353/.471 in 1559 plate appearances, but he’s only managed a .212/.262/.296 slash in 420 Major League trips to the plate. Neuse has spent the bulk of his pro career playing third base, but he does have just over 750 innings of experience at second base and at shortstop — in addition to brief cameos at first base and in the outfield corners.
  • Veteran right-hander Aaron Sanchez, whom the Twins designated for assignment Friday, remains in the organization after clearing waivers and being assigned outright to Triple-A St. Paul. Injuries, most notably shoulder surgery, have blown up the once-promising career of Sanchez, formerly the No. 34 overall draft pick by the Blue Jays and the 2016 American League ERA leader. Since tossing 192 innings with a flat 3.00 ERA in ’16, Sanchez has thrown just 524 1/3 Major League innings (plus another 103 minor league innings) in a span of six seasons. Still just 30, Sanchez has pitched decently in Minnesota this season, tossing 27 innings with a 4.00 ERA, 25-to-7 K/BB ratio and 53.8% ground-ball rate.

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