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The Changing Landscape Of The AL Cy Young Race

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Two weeks ago, the Cy Young race in the American League looked like a two-horse race, with both Houston’s Justin Verlander and Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan hovering at or below the 2.00 ERA mark and racking up innings atop their teams’ respective rotations. McClanahan has the larger strikeout percentage and subsequently superior marks from fielding-independent metrics that some voters increasingly weigh. Verlander was averaging one extra out recorded per start prior to being lifted early his last time out, and his 16-3 win-loss record might hold some sway with traditionalist voters.

Or, all of that could be rendered moot.

Both Verlander and McClanahan are on the 15-day injured list, and Verlander, who had been improbably leading the Majors in ERA as a 39-year-old in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, sounds as though he’ll miss several weeks rather than just the 15-day minimum. McClanahan, a late scratch from his last start, is already throwing and seems likelier to make a quick return. However, the Rays could very well take a cautious approach and limit his innings after a two-week absence due to a shoulder impingement.

At the very least, the door is now open for further competition in Cy Young voting, ostensibly setting the stage for the closest AL vote we’ve seen since 2019, when Verlander and then-teammate Gerrit Cole finished in the top two positions on the ballot. Last year’s NL Cy Young voting sparked plenty of controversy and debate as well, and as things currently stand, we could get an encore of that scene in the AL this year.

If not Verlander or McClanahan, who are the top names to consider? Let’s dive in.

Dylan Cease, RHP, White Sox

Cease, following a near-no-hitter against the Twins that saw him go 8 2/3 before Luis Arraez cracked a ninth-inning single, may have leapfrogged both Verlander and McClanahan as the odds-on favorite in the American League. He’s sitting on MLB’s third-lowest ERA — sandwiched right between Verlander and McClanahan, no less — and that 2.13 mark is complemented by a 31.4% strikeout rate that ranks as the fourth-highest of any qualified starting pitcher in baseball.

At 5.5 wins above replacement (per Baseball Reference), Cease already leads American League pitchers — even over Verlander and McClanahan. That’d due largely to the fact that Cease is putting up these numbers in front of one of the game’s bottom-10 defenses.

It’s not all roses, as Cease has a 10.4% walk rate that sits dead last among qualified starters. He hasn’t been terribly efficient, either; where both Verlander and McClanahan have averaged comfortably more than six innings per start, Cease has averaged 5.77 innings per appearance this year.

Still, Chicagoans can no doubt see the parallels between Cease’s 2022 showing and the 2016 performance of another Chicago hurler — crosstown righty Jake Arrieta, when he rode a historic summer surge to Cy Young honors. Over his past 15 starts, Cease has tallied 93 innings of 1.45 ERA ball and held opponents to one or zero runs on a dozen occasions. Cease isn’t quite in Arrieta territory (0.86 ERA in his final 147 innings), but he’s not terribly far off, either. If he can sustain anything close to this pace, Cease will finish the season at or near the top of the AL in terms of innings pitched, ERA, total strikeouts and strikeout rate.

Alek Manoah, RHP, Blue Jays

Manoah looked borderline unhittable for the season’s first two months, carrying a 1.67 ERA in that time and allowing just 55 hits and a 0.59 HR/9 mark through June 13 (75 2/3 innings). He had a solid but closer-to-average run for much of the summer but has now yielded just three runs in his past 28 1/3 innings.

At 171 innings of 2.42 ERA ball on the year, the 24-year-old is on the periphery of the race at present. He ranks fourth in American League ERA but trails McClanahan, Cease and especially Verlander in that department. He lacks the gaudy strikeout ratios boasted by both Cease and McClanahan but limits hard contact better than any non-McClanahan pitcher in the AL, evidenced by a 31.3% hard-hit rate. (McClanahan leads qualified AL starters at 30.1%.)

However, Manoah’s 171 are second-most in the American League, and if he continues this hot streak, there’s a chance he could wind up among the league leaders in ERA, innings pitched and other key categories. In terms of wins and losses, everyone’s trailing Verlander’s 16 victories, but Manoah’s 14 are tied with Framber Valdez for second in the league. Speaking of which…

Framber Valdez, LHP, Astros

It’s easy to be overshadowed by the season Verlander is enjoying, but we should all probably be discussing Valdez’s outstanding year more than we are. The 28-year-old southpaw is just one-third of an inning behind Manoah at 170 2/3, and he also sits sixth in ERA (2.64) and ninth in bWAR (3.4).

Valdez has emerged as baseball’s preeminent ground-ball starting pitcher, and it’s not close; he leads all qualified pitchers in ground-ball rate at 66.7%, and Logan Webb’s 57.5% rate is second-best. Even dropping the minimum to 50 innings as a starter, he still leads Alex Cobb (61.9%) and Andre Pallante (61.4%) by a wide margin.

In an age where starters are yanked from the game earlier than ever before, Valdez is a throwback. He’s worked at least six innings in every one of his starts since April 25, completing seven or more innings on 11 occasions and twice going the distance with a complete game. Over his past five starts, Valdez has 35 2/3 innings of 1.77 ERA ball. It’ll be a challenge for him to drop his ERA into the low 2.00s, and he can’t match Cease or McClanahan in terms of strikeouts, but Valdez will likely be the American League innings leader and finish with a mid-2.00s ERA and MLB-leading ground-ball rate.

Shohei Ohtani, RHP, Angels

When Ohtani pitched to a 3.99 ERA through the first six weeks of the season, it looked as if we were in for an (almost) mortal season out of the two-way phenom. He averaged just over five innings per start, and while the strikeouts were still there in droves, he was also unusually homer-prone. A Cy Young pursuit did not appear to be on the horizon.

In 88 2/3 innings since that time? Ohtani has a 1.83 ERA with fewer homers allowed (six) than in his first 47 1/3 innings (seven). He at one point rattled off six consecutive starts with double-digit strikeout totals, and opponents have batted .199/.249/.301 against him during this stretch.

Ohtani’s 33% strikeout rate on the season leads qualified starting pitchers (though would trail Braves phenom Spencer Strider by a good margin if Strider had a few more innings), and while many fans and Ohtani detractors bristle at the notion, it’s hard not to consider that he does all this while also serving as a middle-of-the-order slugger who ranks among the league’s top power threats.

Ultimately, with just 136 innings pitched this season, it’s hard to imagine that Ohtani will actually garner many (if any) first-place Cy Young votes. Yes, he’s sporting a 2.58 ERA, leading the league with a 33% strikeout rate and sitting second among AL starters with 4.7 bWAR. But Ohtani is ultimately going to be up against multiple starters with better bottom-line run prevention numbers and as many as 40 to 50 additional innings pitched. Corbin Burnes won an NL Cy Young last year with just 167 frames, but the top names in the American League this year have had better seasons.

Kevin Gausman, RHP, Blue Jays

Gausman will be the analytic darling in this year’s field. I debated whether to mention him at all for this breakdown, as he’d need a pretty dominant finish to push his way in among the leaders in more traditional categories, but the right-hander is second in the American League at FanGraphs with 5.2 wins above replacement. fWAR is based on fielding-independent pitching rather than actual runs allowed, and Gausman has been quite good this season — 3.12 ERA in 147 innings — despite being one of the game’s least-fortunate pitchers in terms of balls in play. He’s lugging around an MLB-worst .368 BABIP, and the next-highest mark (Jordan Lyles at .323) isn’t even close.

There’s perhaps some temptation to think that Gausman is then yielding far too much hard contact, but that’s not necessarily the case. He’s not managing contact as well as any of the others profiled here, but his 89 mph average exit velocity and 39% hard-hit rate are barely north of the respective 88.6 mph and 38.3% league averages in those regards.

Gausman has the game’s third-best walk rate (3.8%), the tenth-best strikeout rate (27.9%) and is sixth-best in the differential between those two (24.1 K-BB%). He’s averaging just 5 2/3 innings per start, however, and isn’t particularly helping his cause down the stretch (3.99 ERA over his past five outings… again, with a .370 BABIP).

—

A lot can (and will) change between now and season’s end, but since this is all just for debate anyhow, I’ll include a poll to close this out:

Who will win the American League Cy Young Award?
Justin Verlander 36.10% (657 votes)
Dylan Cease 25.93% (472 votes)
Alek Manoah 13.74% (250 votes)
Shane McClanahan 9.73% (177 votes)
Shohei Ohtani 9.34% (170 votes)
Framber Valdez 2.53% (46 votes)
Other (specify in comments) 1.70% (31 votes)
Kevin Gausman 0.93% (17 votes)
Total Votes: 1,820

Competition Committee To Vote On Several Rule Changes For 2023 Season

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The competition committee is set to vote on various proposed rule changes for the 2023 season, report Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. A pitch clock, limitations on defensive shifting, pickoff limits and enlarged bases are all set to be formally voted upon tomorrow at 11:00 am CST.

As Drellich and Rosenthal note, it seems a mere formality that all the proposed changes will pass. The competition committee was established by mutual agreement between the league and Players Association during the most recent round of collective bargaining. It’s an 11-person panel designed to vote upon potential changes to the on-field playing rules. That committee is comprised of six league appointees, four MLB players and an umpire. Andy Martino of SNY reported in June that the league would be represented by Dick Monfort, John Stanton, Greg Johnson, Tom Werner, Mark Shapiro and Bill DeWitt for this round of voting. The players on the panel are expected to be Jack Flaherty, Tyler Glasnow, Whit Merrifield and Austin Slater (with Ian Happ and Walker Buehler as alternates), while Bill Miller will represent the umpires.

With MLB appointing a majority of the committee, it’s generally expected the league will be able to push through its desired changes with relative ease. (MLB had a unilateral right to change playing rules under the prior CBA, although it had been required to wait a full year after formally proposing it to the MLBPA in the event the union refused to sign off on earlier implementation). Under the current CBA, the committee can implement rules changes 45 days after making a recommendation to the union. That grace period won’t be relevant for this set of proposals, all of which are focused on 2023 and beyond.

The timing of the vote had been unclear, but it has seemed a formality for months that each of the pitch clock, a shift limitation and larger bases would be implemented by the start of next season. MLB had pushed for all three of those provisions at one point during CBA negotiations this past offseason. The parties eventually agreed to temporarily shelve any changes to the on-field product and focus on larger economic issues, but it has seemed inevitable since March that these three factors would be on the agenda (and would very likely be approved) for the 2023 campaign.

Drellich and Rosenthal report the specifics on the proposed alterations. Pitchers would have 15 seconds to begin their delivery with no one on base, while they’d have 20 seconds to start their motion with runners aboard. The countdown begins when the pitcher has the ball, the batter and catcher are in the vicinity of home plate, and all baserunners are in an appropriate position. Catchers must be in position with no more than nine seconds remaining on the clock. If either the pitcher or catcher violates the provision, an automatic ball is called.

Batters also have a time limit. They’re required to be in the box and “alert to the pitcher” with no more than eight seconds remaining on the clock. If he’s not prepared, an automatic strike will be assessed. (The league also has the authority to impose additional discipline on players and/or staff circumventing the clock). There are 30 seconds allotted between batters and 135 seconds between innings and for pitching changes.

The pickoff limit is also a pace-of-play measure. Pitchers are freely allowed to disengage from the rubber twice per plate appearance — whether to throw a pickoff or for any other reason. Doing so resets the clock for that pitch. A pitcher can disengage for a third time, but an automatic balk is assessed if the baserunner is not thrown out. Essentially, the disengagement rule limits pitchers to two “free” pickoff attempts per batter. After two unsuccessful step-offs, the pitcher can again attempt a pickoff but the baserunner would be awarded an automatic base if he’s not thrown out. If the runner advances without a ball put in play — via balk, stolen base, wild pitch, etc. — the pitcher’s disengagement limit resets.

The pickoff limit figures to incentivize more aggressive baserunning, at least among faster runners. Particularly once a pitcher uses his first two step-offs, a baserunner can theoretically extend his lead. The third disengagement means the runner won’t have free rein, but there’ll be more flexibility to push the leadoff knowing that another unsuccessful pickoff attempt is treated as a balk.

Turning to the shift restrictions, teams would be required to deploy four players (not including the pitcher and catcher) on the infield. All infielders have to have both feet on the dirt, and two players must be completely on either side of the second base bag. A shift violation results in an automatic ball, unless it occurs on a ball in play or hit batsman. If the baserunner reaches anyway, the play stands. If there’s an out recorded, the batting team’s manager decides whether to let the play stand. In most instances, they obviously wouldn’t do so, although there are certain situations (i.e. a sacrifice fly) where teams may be content to accept the out for the advancement of other baserunners. Whether a team violated the shift ban is subject to replay review, while possible pitch clock offenses are not.

The league has experimented with the possibility of restricting shifts for quite some time in an effort to increase the batting average on balls in play. That has included some rather complex and extreme tests in the minor leagues. Jayson Stark of the Athletic reported in July that MLB was introducing a “pie-slice” restriction on shifting at the Low-A level. Not only did that require two infielders on either side of second base, it carved out a restricted area around the bag to prevent middle infielders from playing deep and just to their side of second base to take away would-be hits up the middle. That is not in the proposed rules changes for MLB in 2023, to be clear, but it illustrates the league might experiment with further defensive restrictions down the line if the initial shift ban doesn’t produce a desired uptick in base knocks.

The bases, meanwhile, would be enlarged from their current 15 inches square to 18 inches square. That’s a small change designed to facilitate more aggressive baserunning and minimize the chance of collisions on bang-bang plays at first.

Drellich and Rosenthal report a host of other timing restrictions (on mound visits, in-stadium music, defensive timeouts, etc.) that would also go into effect if approved. The Athletic’s post is worth a full read for those interested in all the changes that seem likely to come to the majors next season.

Yankees Place DJ LeMahieu On Injured List

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The Yankees announced that infielder DJ LeMahieu is headed to the 10-day injured list, retroactive to September 5, with toe inflammation on his right foot. Miguel Andújar has been recalled from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to take his spot on the active roster. New York also reinstated starter Nestor Cortes from the IL after optioning out Deivi García following last night’s ballgame.

LeMahieu has been out of action since Sunday dealing with the toe discomfort. He’s battled the issue off and on for a few weeks, and he’ll need at least another week off to recover. It certainly appears as if the discomfort has had an effect on LeMahieu’s performance, as he’s struggled mightily of late. Going back to the start of August 1, he’s hitting .187/.254/.243 through 119 trips to the plate. That’s obviously nowhere close to the .285/.389/.424 line he carried through the end of July. Precisely when LeMahieu started hurting isn’t clear, but he’s seemingly been operating at less than full strength.

The organization hasn’t provided a specific timetable for his return, although the fact that they’ve waited a few days to put him on the IL could suggest they don’t anticipate it being a long-term absence. New York also just lost Anthony Rizzo to the IL, though, leaving them particularly short-handed on the infield. They called up former Ranger first baseman Ronald Guzmán this week, and he started one of the club’s games in their doubleheader against the Twins yesterday. Utilityman Marwin González got the nod there in the nightcap, and he’s back in the lineup at first tonight. Gleyber Torres, Josh Donaldson (who’s currently on paternity leave), Isiah Kiner-Falefa, rookie Oswald Peraza and Andújar round out the healthy infield mix at the moment.

The silver lining of today’s news is that the Yankees welcome Cortes back from his own IL stint. He only missed a bit more than two weeks with a groin issue. The southpaw owns a 2.68 ERA through 131 innings on the season. He’ll make his 24th start of the year tonight against Minnesota.

The Yankees enter play Thursday holding a five-game lead over the Rays in the AL East. They’re five games back of the Astros for the top record in the Junior Circuit, seemingly setting themselves up to secure the #2 seed in the postseason. A second-half swoon has knocked the club off its once-historic pace, but they’ve still got a strong chance of securing a first-round bye.

Two Minor Leaguers File Lawsuit Against Angels In Dominican Court

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A pair of minor league players have filed suit against the Angels for allegedly reneging on verbal agreements made back in 2019, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. Outfielder Willy Fañas, now with the Mets, and infielder Keiderson Pavon, now with the Rangers, claim that the Angels verbally agreed to respective signing bonuses of $1.8MM and $425K in 2019. The Dominican Prospect League shared a video of former Angels director of international scouting Carlos Gomez (not the former player) informing Pavon the team plans to sign him, at which point a then 15-year-old Pavon breaks down in tears of joy (YouTube link).

Fañas and Pavon allege that those agreements, which came more than a year in advance of the players’ eligibility to sign under Major League Baseball’s rules — international amateurs can sign beginning on their 16th birthdays — were withdrawn in 2020, less than one month before the international signing period was set to commence. Fañas had been 14 at the time of his agreement; Pavon was 15. As Passan points out, the Covid-19 pandemic pushed the July 2, 2020 signing eligibility date back to January of 2021, and by that point, the Halos had fired then-GM Billy Eppler and replaced him with current GM Perry Minasian. With that change came alterations in the international scouting department; Minasian hired Brian Parker to oversee the team’s international operations.

Both players have since signed with new clubs, though Fañas waited until the following signing period to put pen to paper on a contract with a new team. Because early deals just such as these are so common throughout the industry, neither player was able to find a team able to immediately commit a substantial bonus; like the Angels, other teams had already verbally committed the majority of resources in their hard-capped signing pools to other amateurs well in advance of those teenage prospects reaching actual signing eligibility. Fañas, perhaps unsurprisingly, ultimately inked a $1.5MM bonus with the Mets, where Eppler is now GM. Pavon signed for $150K with the Rangers.

While both players eventually found organizations with which to sign, albeit at reduced rates, they’re still seeking damages from the Angels. Fañas is seeking $17MM, while Pavon seeks $4.25MM.

Those figures represent roughly ten times what the Angels had initially promised, though the representatives for Fañas and Pavon could cite multiple factors in seeking such weighty sums. It’s common for players, upon reaching a verbal agreement with a team, to take out loans with exorbitant interest rates, with the intent that the eventual signing bonus will allow those players to pay back that loan. The team withdrawing an offer obviously creates complications in such instances. Speculatively, it’s also plausible that the Fañas and Pavon camps could claim the players’ delayed paths to potential arbitration and free-agent paydays were delayed by the alleged Angels actions. There’s no guarantee they’d ever reach those milestones, of course, and quantifying the exact amount that delay cost either player is impossible.

Whether the suit is successful carries long-term ramifications with regard to the broader international market. Because the league and players association were unable to come to terms on an agreement regarding an international draft, the status quo system that permits this level of largely unregulated advance agreements is likely to remain in place until 2026, when the current collective bargaining agreement expires. If Fañas and Pavon are successful in demonstrating that there are repercussions for teams pursuing premature verbal agreements that flout the rules put into place by MLB, it stands to reason that they may be more reluctant to barter such deals.

The sword cuts both ways, it should be noted. It’s also not uncommon for a player and his trainer and representation to back out of an agreement with a team if he elevates his profile considerably between the time that agreement is reached and the time he’s actually eligible to sign. The rampant disregard for rules prompted agent Ulises Cabrera, who helped establish the Dominican Prospect League and who works with dozens of Latin American players, to refer to the entire system as “the wild, wild West” when speaking to ESPN.

Although the suit was initially filed in May, any ruling on the litigation will wait until months down the road. Passan adds that a Dominican judge recently moved to postpone the appearance of witnesses until late November. And while many American fans may wonder whether there’s any real chance that a court of law would agree to uphold a verbal agreement as a binding contract, Passan quotes several Dominican lawyers and legal professionals who emphasize that the Dominican justice system places greater emphasis on verbal declarations than the United States court system does. The report features lengthy quotes from Cabrera, from the lawyers representing Fañas and Pavon, from third-party legal professionals in the Dominican and from the plaintiffs themselves, so those with interest will want to check it out in its entirety to grasp the full scope of the controversy.

The Dodgers’ Latest Free Agent Breakout

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Each offseason, the Dodgers are mentioned as at least a speculative favorite for seemingly every top-tier free agent. They’re willing to pursue elite players even in the absence of a true positional need, and they annually sport one of the league’s highest payrolls. This winter should be no exception, with headlines eventually linking the Dodgers to the best free agent shortstops, including their own impending free agent Trea Turner, and top-of-the-market starting pitching.

Los Angeles doesn’t just pursue established superstars in the Freddie Freeman mold, though. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, general manager Brandon Gomes and the rest of the front office also leverage their payroll flexibility in another way. While it’s not as visible or exciting, the Dodgers roll the dice on plenty of mid-tier free agents. They signed nine players to major league deals last offseason alone, seven of whom inked a one-year guarantee. It was a blend of high-upside players who carried injury or performance risks with more stable, lower-variance veterans to round out the roster.

Tyler Anderson seemed to fall into the latter bucket. He’s been a durable back-of-the-rotation arm for much of his career. Anderson lost chunks of the 2017 and ’19 seasons with left knee issues, but he started a full slate of 32 games in 2018 and hasn’t gone on the injured list at any point in the past three years. That kind of reliability appealed to a Dodgers team that opened the season with Dustin May on the IL, Clayton Kershaw coming off a season-ending arm issue and Andrew Heaney (another lower-tier free agent pickup) seeking a rebound after a dismal 2021 campaign.

Reliable as he was in taking the ball every fifth day, Anderson didn’t look like a potential impact arm. He’d only once posted an ERA below 4.00 in a season, and that was in his 2016 rookie campaign. The southpaw had the tough task of pitching his home games at Coors Field for his first four years, but he also had mixed results in a 2021 season split between two more pitcher-friendly settings. Anderson played the year with the Pirates and Mariners, combining for a 4.53 ERA over 167 innings. A nine-run clunker during his third-to-last start of the season inflated that number, but he carried an ERA hovering around 4.00 for much of the season.

Featuring a fastball that averages under 91 MPH, Anderson looked the part of a back-end arm who throws strikes and keeps teams in a ballgame for five innings. That netted him an $8MM guarantee from L.A. in Spring Training. That would’ve been a generally worthwhile investment if Anderson had merely replicated his 2021 numbers over another full season. Instead, he’s posted easily the best showing of his career to date.

Through 26 appearances, the former first-round pick has worked 154 2/3 innings of 2.73 ERA ball. He’s neither striking batters out nor generating ground-balls at a particularly robust clip, with his respective 19% and 39.7% rates each checking in below the league averages. Yet Anderson has improved upon the aspect of his game in which he’d already been most effective: getting opponents to offer at pitcher’s pitches.

Despite not having eye-popping raw stuff, Anderson has always been adept at inducing chases on pitches outside the strike zone. Opponents went after 37.2% of offerings he threw outside the zone last season, well above the 31.5% league average for starters. He’s pushed that already impressive rate further, getting hitters to chase a personal-high 38.9% of pitches this year.

That ability to get hitters to swing at bad pitches drives two key aspects of Anderson’s success. It’s helped him avoid free passes, with this season’s 4.9% walk rate among the best in the game. Anderson has always been adept at pounding the strike zone, and his combination of plenty of pitches within the zone and ability to get hitters to swing at would-be balls keeps him frequently in advantageous counts. It’s also worked to avoid especially damaging contact, with opponents having a hard time squaring him up. Anderson ranks among the league’s top starters in suppressing hard contact, thus far allowing him to avoid home run issues that have plagued him in the past.

The Dodgers have already received more than they could’ve expected from a reasonably low-cost acquisition. He could have a hard time cracking a playoff rotation that’ll certainly feature Julio Urías, Kershaw, May and (if healthy) Tony Gonsolin, but he’s likely to be on the mound for some high-leverage innings this October in some capacity. Anderson also looks to have set himself up for a better payday on his return trip to the open market, although how robust the interest will be depends on how much teams buy into his ability to sustain this year’s elite results.

His lack of premium velocity or swing-and-miss stuff gives him a thin margin for error. Even modest regression in his ability to induce bad swing decisions could lead to results more akin to a back-of-the-rotation arm than this year’s All-Star form. After all, it’s not as if Anderson’s success has come completely out of the blue. He’d already been above-average at getting batters to chase and make weak contact in seasons where his overall output was roughly league average.

The 32-year-old has made tweaks to his repertoire this year that probably helped push his game forward. He’s taken some speed off his changeup, which is getting more downward depth. Batters are swinging through it more often as a result, and given the alterations to his changeup, it’s probably not a coincidence he’s faring better than ever against right-handed batters. That’s a promising improvement, but like the other gains he’s made this season, it’s a rather subtle one.

Put all the changes together, and Anderson looks as if he’s better now than he has been. Is he a true talent 2.73 ERA pitcher who’ll be an annual All-Star? Probably not. His future level likely falls somewhere in between this year’s outstanding numbers and the pedestrian 4.49 mark he posted from 2020-21. Yet even if Anderson allows around three and a half to four earned runs per nine innings moving forward, he’s a valuable pitcher — particularly if he can continue to stay healthy and take the ball every fifth day.

As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk noted last month, the Dodgers will have to at least consider the possibility of tagging Anderson with a qualifying offer this offseason. It still seems they’d opt against making an offer that, in recent seasons, has sat in the $18-19MM range, but that it’s even a worthwhile consideration is a testament to his strong year. At the very least, Anderson looks to have pitched his way into the first multi-year contract of his career when he returns to free agency.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Reds Release Colin Moran

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Sept. 8: Cincinnati announced today that Moran has been released. He’s a free agent who can now sign with any team. If he lands with another club and is added back to the Major League roster, he’d technically be under club control for another season, as he’ll finish the year with five-plus years of service, though this year’s struggles may render that a moot point.

Sept. 6: The Reds announced that they have reinstated outfielder Albert Almora Jr. from the injured list, with infielder Colin Moran getting designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Moran, 29, is in his seventh MLB season. He spent the 2018-2021 stretch with the Pirates, hitting .272/.330/.428 over the first three years of that time. That production was exactly league average, as evidenced by his 100 wRC+. He took a bit of a downturn last year, slashing just .258/.334/.390 for a wRC+ of 97. Moran was making $2.8MM last year and headed for a raise through arbitration, but the club decided to move on, designating him for assignment in November.

He ended up landing with the Reds on a $1MM deal but hasn’t fared much better this year. Moran hit .211/.305/.376 across 42 MLB games, getting optioned multiple times and outrighted in June. He slashed .249/.310/.415 in 53 Triple-A games and was selected back to the 40-man roster just over a week ago when Mike Moustakas landed on the IL, but he’s now lost his spot yet again.

The Reds recently promoted corner infield prospect Spencer Steer, whom they acquired in the Tyler Mahle trade a few weeks ago, likely playing a part in nudging Moran out of their plans. They can use the final weeks of the season to evaluate Steer and see if he fares well enough to secure himself a job on next year’s team.

The D-backs’ Promising Outfield Gives Them Plenty Of Offseason Flexibility

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Diamondbacks catcher/outfielder Daulton Varsho has impressed so much in the outfield this season that his days behind the plate could be drawing to a close, writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Varsho tells Piecoro that he’s even surprised himself with how well he’s taken to the outfield.

A former top-100 prospect, the 26-year-old former top prospect has drawn immaculate grades for his outfield defense in 2022, tallying 14 Defensive Runs Saved and, according to Statcast, 13 Outs Above Average and 12 Runs Above Average. Those are cumulative totals, so it’s worth noting that Varsho has also spent 175 innings behind the plate this year; had he been a full-time outfielder, those defensive marks would’ve likely been even more eye-catching.

Varsho, who says it’s a personal goal of his to win a Gold Glove, added that he’s not content with his current level of outfield play, citing a few near-catches he missed (on what would’ve been highlight-reel efforts). Varsho labeled himself a perfectionist and spoke of small, incremental gains he could still make in his defensive game — “…[I]f I can add an extra inch by not having to look at the wall and understanding what I can do to get better…” — as part of his hopeful evolution.

Of course, Varsho is far more than just a strong glove in the outfield. He’s built on a solid showing at the plate last summer and turned in a .243/.311/.457 batting line this season, swatting 23 home runs, 20 doubles and three triples while chipping in eight stolen bases (albeit in 14 attempts). It’s a solid, well-round skill set that could leave him as a fixture in center or right field, depending on how the remainder of the Diamondbacks’ young outfield pans out.

Corbin Carroll, regarded as one of the sport’s top prospects — if not the top prospect — prior to his promotion earlier this month, gives Arizona a potential high-impact talent to pair with Varsho in the long term. He’s followed up a combined .307/.425/.611 batting line in the minors this year with a .281/.324/.469 showing through his first eight big league games and now has 24 home runs and 31 steals between the minors and big leagues combined.

Add in the likes of Alek Thomas, himself a top-100 prospect prior to this season’s debut, and 25-year-old Jake McCarthy, who has surpassed all expectations with a strong debut campaign of his own, and the outfield group in Phoenix looks particularly promising. The 22-year-old Thomas has cooled after a solid start and is batting .249/.295/.373 on the season but has turned in plus defensive marks in center. McCarthy, meanwhile, is batting .288/.348/.455 with seven homers, 14 doubles, two triples and a 15-for-16 showing in stolen bases.

It’s a talented, albeit entirely left-handed, group of outfielders around which to build. That there are four players for three spots might make it tempting to continue deploying Varsho behind the dish at times, but his elite play in the outfield would be lost in that scenario. Manager Torey Lovullo told Piecoro that there are no plans for Varsho to start behind the plate for the remainder of the season, further pointing to a long-term move away from the position.

It’s a bit early to label the quartet of lefty-hitting outfielders a true “surplus.” Thomas’ offense has been below average, and it’s fair to wonder whether McCarthy can sustain production that’s been bolstered by a .347 average on balls in play — particularly when he’s making hard contact at a below-average clip. Statcast pegs his “expected” batting average and slugging percentage at .259 and .367 — both well shy of his current marks. Carroll is a top-five prospect in baseball, but he also just turned 22 in late August, so it’s not a given that he’ll immediately break out into stardom.

Still, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wonders about the possibility of the Diamondbacks utilizing this group of outfielders to bolster the rotation over the winter. There are plenty of teams with outfield needs who’d love to acquire a controllable long-term player to step right onto the 2023 roster.  Varsho is controlled through 2026, McCarthy through 2027 and both Thomas and Carroll through at least 2028. Speculating a bit, the Marlins are known to still be looking for their center fielder of the future and have plenty of pitching to dangle in talks with the D-backs. Arizona and Miami previously lined up on a Zac Gallen-for-Jazz Chisholm swap that has benefited both clubs, though the Marlins’ front office has turned over a good bit since that time.

Trading from that quartet of outfielders would thin out the Diamondbacks’ outfield depth, quite likely in a significant way, but they do have some other options on the 40-man roster, including the right-handed-hitting Stone Garrett, who’s out to a blistering MLB debut himself after a nice showing in Triple-A. The free-agent market would also present several affordable, short-term options to plug into the outfield mix, and finding a useful complementary outfielder on the open market is quite a bit easier than finding the type of potentially impact arm that a trade of someone like Thomas could bring.

However general manager Mike Hazen and his staff choose to proceed this winter, the play of the team’s young outfielders will give them plenty of options. And with a lot clicking elsewhere on the roster — Arizona is 26-19 since the All-Star break, a .578 winning percentage — the D-backs could be a shrewd offseason move or two away from reasserting themselves in the National League West more quickly than most would anticipate.

The Braves’ Star Rookie Starter

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With just a month remaining in the 2022 regular season, some of the awards races are coming into view. The National League Rookie of the Year balloting will be a two-man show, with Braves teammates Spencer Strider and Michael Harris II battling one another for the hardware. Neither player entered the season as a favorite, but they’ve pulled away from the field with spectacular performances.

Harris didn’t even reach the majors until a few days before June, but he’s started his career on a .309/.352/.538 tear. That’s elite offensive output, and while it’ll probably be difficult to keep hitting at that level while swinging and missing as often as he does, there’s far more to his game. Harris has rated as a plus defensive center fielder, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he eventually takes home a Gold Glove Award. He’s also a plus baserunner who has gone 16 of 17 as a base-stealer. The Braves cemented Harris as a key piece of the core by signing him to an eight-year extension last month.

Great as Harris has been, he may be trending towards a runner-up finish in the ROY race. That’s a testament to how dominant his teammate has been on the mound. Unlike Harris, Strider got his feet wet in the big leagues last season. Atlanta called him up in October, and he came out of the bullpen twice during the final week of the regular season. The call-up was seemingly geared towards gauging whether Strider would be a playoff option, but the Braves left him off the postseason roster. After winning the World Series, they’re certainly not quibbling about that decision, but there’s no question he’ll be a major factor in the playoffs this time around.

Strider didn’t open the season in the rotation. Atlanta initially turned to a primary five of Max Fried, Charlie Morton, Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright and Huascar Ynoa, with Strider on hand as a multi-inning relief option. The 23-year-old thrived in that capacity, pitching to a 2.22 ERA while holding opponents to a pitiful .167/.263/.214 line through 24 1/3 frames. It may have been tempting to keep him in that role, particularly since many scouting reports on Strider had suggested a bullpen future may be his best fit.

Through two months, however, the Braves weren’t getting great results from the bulk of the rotation. Fried was excellent, as was Wright. Yet Morton and Anderson had some early-season struggles, and the fifth spot proved a revolving door between Ynoa, Bryce Elder and Tucker Davidson. On May 30, the Braves turned to Strider to make the first start of his big league career. He struggled, allowing five runs in 4 1/3 innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks. The Braves stuck with him, and he reeled off three solid starts in a row. Strider then took a six-run drubbing at the hands of the Giants on June 21, but he’s been arguably the best pitcher in the game since that point.

Strider twirled six scoreless innings against the Dodgers his next time out, kicking off an ongoing stretch of 10 of 12 starts in which he’s allowed two or fewer runs. Over that time, Strider has a 2.15 ERA and surrendered only a .176/.233/.258 slash line. He’s struck out nearly 40% of batters faced while only walking 6.1% of opponents. The righty has eclipsed double digit punchouts on four occasions, including a masterful 16-strikeout gem against the Rockies last week.

While Strider’s late entrance to the rotation has kept him from accruing as many innings as the game’s top arms, he’s been among the league’s best hurlers on a rate basis. No other starting pitcher with 90+ innings has a strikeout rate anywhere near his 37.8% mark since he moved to the rotation. The next closest pitcher, Shohei Ohtani, checks at 33%. Strider’s among the top 20 starters in ERA (2.79), has allowed the fourth-lowest opponents’ on-base percentage (.249) and the lowest slugging percentage allowed (.276). Only Shane McClanahan, Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman and Ohtani are generating swinging strikes at a better clip than Strider, who’s gotten a whiff on 15.2% of his total pitches out of the rotation.

Strider’s approach is a bit atypical for a starting pitcher, a big reason evaluators questioned whether he could stick in a rotation. He leans extremely heavily on his fastball, turning to the four-seam more than two-thirds of the time. Strider pairs that with a slider and barely turns to a third offering, rarely deploying his changeup. It can be tough to navigate big league lineups with only two pitches, but the fastball-slider pairing has been dominant. Strider is averaging an absurd 98.2 MPH on his heater, while hitters have come up empty more than half the time they’ve swung at his mid-80’s slider. The shallower repertoire has neither inhibited Strider from handling left-handed opponents (who have a .200/.256/.284 line against him this season), nor from maintaining his effectiveness multiple times through a lineup.

It’s probably too soon to call Strider a true ace. A 2020 draftee, he’s still only in his second full professional season. This year’s 114 2/3 innings are already a personal-high, and it remains to be seen whether he can maintain this kind of form through a 162-game schedule and into the postseason. On an inning-for-inning basis, though, Strider has performed right alongside the game’s best. He’s already been far better than the Braves could’ve reasonably anticipated, and he has certainly secured a spot in the playoff rotation alongside Fried and at least one of Morton or Wright.

The addition of Harris and Strider to a core that is coming off a championship gives them one of the league’s more complete rosters. Atlanta is playing at a 101-win pace, and they’ve pulled within half a game of the much improved Mets for first place in a top-heavy NL East. Which team will secure the division title and accompanying first-round bye will be one of the most intriguing storylines of the season’s final couple weeks. Strider will play a big role in those efforts and in whatever postseason run the Braves can mount to follow.

Note: All stats through play Tuesday.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Matt Wisler Elects Free Agency

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Reliever Matt Wisler has gone unclaimed on outright waivers after being designated for assignment by the Rays this week, reports Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (on Twitter). He’s electing minor league free agency in lieu of an outright assignment, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link).

It’s a bit of a surprise to see Wisler go unclaimed, as he’s currently amidst a decent campaign. He owns a 2.25 ERA across 44 innings over 39 appearances. Wisler has only struck out 19.9% of opponents, but he’s shown strong control. While he’s not missed many bats this year, Wisler has induced swinging strikes at an above-average rate in each of the prior three seasons. In both 2020-21, the Ohio native paired those whiffs with decent overall run prevention.

Still, clubs are apparently apprehensive by Wisler’s dip in velocity. He’s averaging a career-low 89.7 MPH on his four-seam fastball this year. More important, his slider is down to 79.8 MPH after sitting at 81.5 MPH last year. Wisler leans almost exclusively on that breaker, turning to it on a staggering 91.5% of his offerings. He’s used the slider as his primary pitch four years running, but he’s continued to push his approach to greater extremes with each season. Despite turning almost exclusively to the slider, Wisler hasn’t encountered any sort of platoon issues. He’s actually fared better against opposite-handed hitters than righties over the past few seasons, including holding southpaws to a .186/.240/.314 line in 75 plate appearances in 2022.

Now that he’s on the open market, Wisler will have the right to explore opportunities elsewhere. Players who join an organization after August 31 aren’t eligible for postseason play, however, so any signing team would only be able to install him in the bullpen for the final few weeks of the regular season. Wisler has surpassed his sixth year of major league service this season, so he’d be eligible for free agency again at the end of the year even if he signs for the stretch run.

It’s possible Wisler just turns his attention to 2023 at this stage on the calendar, but there’d be no financial downside for another team adding him for the final few weeks if he’s searching for a more immediate opportunity. The Rays are responsible for what remains of his $2.16MM salary, while another team would only owe him the prorated portion of the $700K minimum if he finds another MLB job (which would be subtracted from Tampa Bay’s obligations).

Starling Marte Diagnosed With Non-Displaced Finger Fracture

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Mets outfielder Starling Marte has been diagnosed with a partial non-displaced fracture of the middle finger on his right hand, the team informed reporters (including Steve Gelbs of SNY). The club currently considers him day-to-day, although it remains to be seen if he’ll eventually require a stint on the injured list.

Marte suffered the injury last night, when he was hit on the hand by a 96 MPH fastball from Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller. He came out of the game a couple innings later, and he sat out today’s doubleheader. The Mets haven’t provided a timetable as to when they expect Marte to be ready for game action, although it’s seemingly encouraging they’re not immediately placing him on the injured list. The expansion of active rosters in September from 26 to 28 players gives the Mets a bit more leeway to give Marte a few days, particularly with an off day tomorrow to reassess his condition.

Signed to a four-year, $78MM deal over the winter, Marte has had an All-Star first season in Queens. He’s hitting .292/.347/.468 through 505 trips to the plate, on par with the best offensive seasons of his career. The star outfielder has connected on 16 homers, 24 doubles and five triples. He’s chipped in 18 stolen bases (albeit with nine caught stealings) and served as the club’s primary right fielder and #2 hitter.

The Mets turned to Tyler Naquin in right field today, and he’d presumably pick up the majority of playing time if Marte’s forced out of action. The lefty-hitting Naquin can split time with the right-handed Darin Ruf in the corner opposite Mark Canha, with Brandon Nimmo continuing to man center field.

New York has been hit with a couple notable injury situations in recent days. They placed Max Scherzer on the 15-day injured list with side fatigue this morning. At 87-51, the Mets are a lock to make the playoffs, but they’re in a tight NL East battle with the defending World Series champions. New York holds a half-game lead on the Braves in a race for the division title and accompanying first-round bye.

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