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Padres Considering Marcus Stroman

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Veteran starting pitching will be a focus of the Padres’ offseason, and the team appears prepared to shop in the high end of the free agent market.  Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes that Marcus Stroman has been “mentioned” as part of the Padres’ “preliminary deliberations” about targets this winter.

To be clear, it would be surprising if Stroman wasn’t at least on the radar for any pitching-needy team, and it is too early in the Padres’ offseason to tell if these in-house deliberations will result in concrete interest.  That said, Stroman would be a logical upgrade for a San Diego team looking to bolster its pitching corps.

On paper, the Padres have a full rotation of Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Chris Paddack, and (returning from Tommy John surgery) Mike Clevinger, plus Dinelson Lamet and Ryan Weathers as further depth and Adrian Morejon as a midseason reinforcement once he completes his own TJ rehab.  However, given all the injury concerns and lack of overall performance from this group down the stretch, it isn’t surprising that San Diego’s front office is looking for reinforcements.  Stroman has had his share of injuries, though for the most part has been a durable arm, tossing at least 179 innings in four of his last five seasons.

After opting out of the 2020 season and then accepting the Mets’ qualifying offer for 2021, Stroman delivered one of the best campaigns of his seven-year career.  Stroman posted a 3.02 ERA/3.95 SIERA over 179 IP with a 50.8% grounder rate and a 5.9% walk rate that was both well above league average and Stroman’s best walk rate since his 2014 rookie season.  The right-hander’s 21.7% strikeout rate was a career best, if still a below average figure overall, though a very strong 31.6% chase rate is indication that Stroman left his share of batters guessing.

Stroman turns 31 in May, but between his track record and his 2021 success, it seems quite likely that he’ll land at least a four-year contract this winter, and maybe as many as five years.  (His market is also helped by the fact that he is ineligible for another QO.)  Signing Stroman would represent yet another major contract on the Padres’ books, and between the pre-existing commitments and a big arbitration class, the Padres might not have a ton of room to operate underneath the next Competitive Balance Tax threshold.

Both Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource calculate that the Padres managed to stay under the $210MM luxury tax threshold in 2021, though the margin is close enough that we’ll have to wait for the official league accounting to be certain.  Then again, Padres ownership has indicated a willingness to pay the tax under the right circumstances, and it is possible the current CBT system is overhauled in collective bargaining talks.  The club could also explore moving some other salary to free up payroll and tax space, such as how the Padres has looked into trading the likes of Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers in recent years.

Atlanta GM Alex Anthopoulos Discusses Deadline Moves

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In a chat with Mark Bowman of MLB.com, Atlanta’s general manager Alex Anthopoulos discussed the moves that he and his club made before this year’s trade deadline. In particular, they focus on the Adam Duvall trade and how, although the discussions with the Marlins and general manager Kim Ng had been going on for over a week, the final deal came together in the last 24 hours.

“We had been talking to them about Duvall for at least 10 days and it just wasn’t going anywhere,” Anthopoulos said. “That [late-night] call was a breakthrough conversation, but there would still have to be discussions the next day. Then finally around 12:30 or 1 o’clock, we got that deal done.” Presumably, it was during this late-night call that Anthopoulos put catcher Alex Jackson on the table, as he was the only other player involved in the deal. It is perhaps not a coincidence that, three weeks later, the club and catcher Travis d’Arnaud signed a two-year extension to make up for the subtracted depth at the position.

“After that call, it felt like this was going to happen… We wanted to talk about it internally, and [the Marlins] were going to do the same thing.” Bowman then goes on to detail the acquisitions of Eddie Rosario, Richard Rodriguez and, finally, Jorge Soler. As Bowman writes, “Around 3:30 p.m. ET, assistant general manager Jason Paré suggested the Braves call Kansas City one more time.”

These details give some insight into the collaborative nature of front offices and the different factors at play. As much as Alex Anthopoulos, or other GMs, might occasionally seem like rogue traders, a baseball front office is a multicellular organism that requires good rapport, within itself and to other clubs.

Of course, the other factor that is always present is the budget. Anthopoulos and his team got a midseason boost in that regard, as he told Bowman that Atlanta’s chairman Terry McGuirk offered an increase based on their good early-season revenues. “He basically gave me a large amount of money to work with. I was ecstatic. That’s a credit to those fans who came out and supported this club and put us in this position.”

Due to the ability to take on these contracts, the club upgraded their bullpen and totally remade their outfield, propelling them to a strong finish to the season. On the day of the deadline, July 31st, Atlanta was actually below .500, sitting on a record of 52-54, five games behind the Mets in the NL East. But from August 1st onwards, they went 36-19, leapfrogged the Mets, cruised to a fourth-consecutive division crown and now find themselves preparing for an NLDS matchup with the Brewers that begins on Friday.

Red Sox Outright Jose Iglesias, Yairo Munoz

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The Red Sox have outrighted infielders Jose Iglesias and Yairo Munoz, according to a team announcement. This now leaves their 40-man roster at 39, giving them the opportunity to potentially make an addition before tomorrow’s ALDS kick-off. (Munoz had been on the COVID-19 related injured list since September 1st and thus wasn’t taking up a roster spot.)

Subtracting Iglesias from the roster isn’t terribly surprising, since he is unable to play for the club again this season anyhow on account of being signed after the August 31st deadline. Players joining an organization after that date are ineligible for postseason play with their new club. Iglesias was released by the Angels September 3rd and signed with the Red Sox September 6th. He is also heading into free agency after the postseason, making it a formality to cut him loose a bit early.

The club could now potentially add a player from their minor league system to the 40-man roster for postseason eligibility. Players in the organization but not on the 40-man roster before September 1 can still participate in the playoffs via a petition to the Commissioner’s Office, a fairly common maneuver throughout the league.

Another roster question hanging over the club is whether or not J.D. Martinez will be on it. The slugger hurt his ankle recently and was left off the roster for the Wild Card game. As noted by Jon Morosi of MLB Network, Martinez took the field today and “tested his ankle at low intensity.” When Martinez was asked if he would play tomorrow, he gave the noncommittal answer, “You’ll find out.” Of course, any player that the Red Sox could potentially call up would pale in comparison to a healthy Martinez, who had yet another excellent season at the plate, hitting .286/.349/.518, for a wRC+ of 128.

Rockies Extend Antonio Senzatela

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October 6: According to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, Senzatela can increase his annual salary by meeting thresholds of innings pitched. By reaching 200 innings in 2022, he will add $1MM to his salary in each season from 2024 to 2027, and the same applies for 2023. That means Senzatela has the potential to add $8MM to his payout.

October 5: The Rockies announced this afternoon they’ve agreed to a five-year contract extension with right-hander Antonio Senzatela. He’ll be guaranteed $50.5MM, and the deal also contains a club option for the 2027 season. Senzatela, a client of Republik Sports, was headed into his second trip through the arbitration process and had previously been under club control through the 2023 season.

Antonio Senzatela |Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a rather surprising first move for newly minted general manager Bill Schmidt, who shed the “interim” tag from his title over the weekend. Senzatela has, at times, looked the part of a durable innings eater with a grounder-heavy approach, but he also possesses one of Major League Baseball’s lowest strikeout rates and was only in line for a modest raise on this season’s $3MM salary in arbitration. He’ll now earn $7.25MM in both 2022 and 2023 before taking home $12MM annually from 2024-26. The 2027 option is valued at $14MM.

Senzatela, 26, has been a durable rotation cog for Colorado over the past few seasons, although it’s worth noting that as recently as 2019, he was optioned to Triple-A and finished the season with an ERA just shy of 7.00. The right-hander was hammered for a 10.34 ERA from July through September that season but has enjoyed much more success since returning.

In 40 starts and 230 frames dating back to Opening Day 2020, he’s worked to a combined 4.11 earned run average — albeit with a 15% strikeout rate that ranks 188th of the 198 starting pitchers to have thrown at least 100 innings in that time. Senzatela ranks on the opposite end of the pendulum with the 15th-best walk rate in that time (5.1%) and the 22nd-ranked ground-ball percentage (51.1%).

Clearly, the Rockies are betting that he’ll be able to continue to suppress runs at a roughly average rate, leaning heavily on his blend of strong control and knack for inducing grounders. The challenge for Senzatela will lie partly in his ability to reduce the rate at which he allows hard contact. Of the 98 qualified pitchers in Major League Baseball this season, Senzatela’s 90.6 mph average opponents’ exit velocity was sixth-highest. That’s driven in part by a propensity to allow hard contact on the ground; his exit velocity on ground-balls is fourth-highest in MLB, whereas on balls in the air it’s a slightly less-alarming 27th.

Historically speaking, there’s ample precedent for pitchers in Senzatela’s service bracket — more than four years, less than five — signing a deal in this range. Kyle Hendricks’ 2019 extension with the Cubs, a five-year deal worth a guaranteed $55.5MM, is the most recent and closest parallel.

Notably, Hendricks also largely goes against today’s archetypical strikeout machine. He relies more on weak contact and pinpoint command to offset one of the game’s slowest fastballs, however, whereas Senzatela’s power sinker hovers in the 95 mph range but simply doesn’t miss many bats.

While both pitchers are grounder-heavy command artists, Hendricks had a vastly superior track record that included a prior third-place finish in NL Cy Young balloting. He’d already agreed to a $7.405MM salary for the forthcoming 2019 season, and Senzatela would’ve been hard-pressed to earn a second-time arbitration salary in that range. If Hendricks was indeed cited as a point of comparison in negotiations, it’s a strong deal for Senzatela’s camp to have come close to that same guarantee with a demonstrably worse statistical platform.

That said, while the price point may be a bit of a surprise, the Rockies surely place extra value on pitchers who’ve shown the ability — and the desire or willingness — to pitch effectively at Coors Field. Persuading any free-agent starting pitcher to sign on for multiple years pitching at altitude is a difficult endeavor. Beyond that, the Rockies have a fairly weak farm system, so trading for a controllable pitcher is easier said than done. Senzatela has had his share of success in recent seasons and, if he can continue on the same trajectory he showed from 2020-21, the deal will look reasonable enough.

From a payroll vantage point, the Rox can certainly afford the deal as structured. Colorado had just under $47MM in guaranteed salary on the 2022 books, and Senzatela’s salary bumps them to a bit more than $54MM. Charlie Blackmon will tack on another $21MM when he exercises a player option for the 2022 campaign, but even that subsequent $75-76MM is nowhere near the franchise-record $145MM payroll. Colorado is reported to be in agreement on an extension with first baseman C.J. Cron as well, but that shouldn’t drive up the bottom-line payroll in 2022 by too much.

Moreover, by the time Senzatela’s salary jumps to the $12MM range, the Blackmon contract will be off the books. The Rockies didn’t have a single guaranteed salary on the 2024 payroll prior to this long-term deal, though a $16MM club option on top pitcher German Marquez appears likely to be exercised, barring a significant injury or decline. An annual $12MM salary for an innings eater of Senzatela’s nature isn’t an egregious price to pay, although the downside with him is greater than with other arms who’ve signed in this price range — and it’s a bit surprising to see that price tag agreed upon so far in advance.

At the end of the day, the Senzatela extension serves as another reminder that the Rockies don’t view themselves nearly as far from contending as their 74-win season and -57 run differential would suggest. Colorado bucked conventional wisdom at the deadline when opting to hang onto Trevor Story, Jon Gray, Daniel Bard, Cron and other trade candidates, ultimately only moving Mychal Givens despite being buried in the division and lacking long-term control of those players.

Owner Dick Monfort has repeatedly stated in the past that he believes the current Rockies core is capable of contending, although that core will likely be turning over at least to an extent with the expected departure of Story. Competing in a division with the two best teams of 2021, plus a flawed-but-talented Padres squad in win-now mode would appear a daunting task for most teams, but the Rockies operate on an island and, in many ways, prefer their own unorthodox methodologies to more popular industry trends. The group of Marquez, Senzatela, Kyle Freeland, Gray (if he’s re-signed) and Austin Gomber certainly could form the nucleus of a competitive pitching staff, but the Rox are thin on depth behind that quintet and will need another year of uncanny health in the rotation just to repeat their 2021 output. Some additional roster augmentation will be needed this offseason.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the agreement and the deal’s terms.

MLBTR Poll: NL Wild Card Matchup

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Unlike the American League, where the Wild Card matchup was not known until the final day of the season, the picture in the National League has been clear for some time. The Los Angeles Dodgers are hosting the St. Louis Cardinals.

In one corner, we have the defending World Series champions and the club with 2021’s highest payroll, by a wide margin. The Los Angeles Dodgers are a stacked team that notched 106 victories this season but still couldn’t manage to outflank the Giants in the NL West. Now they find themselves one loss away from an early winter.

In the other corner, we have baseball hottest team. On July 31st, the Cardinals were 52-52, seven games behind the Padres for the second Wild Card spot. But they stormed through the end of the season, going 38-20, including a remarkable 17-game winning streak, and finished seven games ahead of their nearest competitors, the Reds.

On the mound will be two veterans who each already have World Series rings. 37-year-old Max Scherzer will toe the slab for the Dodgers, just over two years after starting 2019’s National League Wild Card game for the Nationals. In that start, Scherzer tossed five innings, allowing four hits, three walks and three earned runs. Although he left the game with his club down 3-1, the Nationals pulled off an incredible comeback and continued on their way to the 2019 World Series crown. Between Washington and Los Angeles this year, Scherzer threw 179 1/3 innings with 236 strikeouts and an ERA of 2.46.

Representing the opposing dugout will be Adam Wainwright, who continues to make mockery of aging curves. The 40-year-old logged 206 1/3 innings this year with 174 strikeouts and an ERA of 3.05. Incredibly, this will be the ninth season of his career where he has made at least one postseason appearance.

Who do you think will emerge victorious? (Poll link for app users.)

Dombrowski: Gregorius Not Guaranteed Phillies’ Starting Shortstop Job In 2022

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The Phillies remained in playoff contention until the final week of the season but ultimately came up short, missing the postseason for the tenth consecutive year. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski conducted his end-of-season press conference this afternoon (video provided by 97.3 FM ESPN) and offered some insight into the front office’s plans for returning to contention next year.

Dombrowski suggested the team was prioritizing lineup help, pointing to their need to complement Bryce Harper in the middle of the order and for more production from the leadoff spot. (Phillies leadoff hitters had a .236/.302/.404 cumulative slash line that ranked third-worst in the league by measure of wRC+). One potential position at which the Phils could look to upgrade is shortstop, where incumbent Didi Gregorius struggled to a .209/.270/.370 line over 408 plate appearances.

When asked whether Gregorius would return as the club’s top shortstop option, Dombrowski was noncommittal. “It very well could be him. But he knows, we’ve had a discussion with him that he needs to be better. And we’re in a position where we also are going to be open-minded to what’s going to take place at shortstop next year. It could be internal, could be him if he comes back. …. Maybe it is him. He’ll come in (next season) in shape, but he’s not guaranteed — and he’s been told — that he’s for sure the shortstop. It doesn’t mean he can’t play other positions for us too, and maybe we’ll have a DH that’ll be a part of our club too.”

Gregorius is guaranteed $14.5MM next season under the terms of last winter’s two-year free agent deal. In addition to his offensive struggles, Gregorius rated as eleven runs below average by measure of Defensive Runs Saved. Dombrowski alluded to the 31-year-old’s issues with the glove, a microcosm of a team-wide issue for the Phils throughout the past few seasons.

Bryson Stott, the Phillies first-round pick out of UNLV in 2019, has spent the bulk of his minor league career at shortstop. The 24-year-old hit a solid .301/.368/.481 with ten home runs over 351 plate appearances at Double-A Reading, earning a late-season bump to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Dombrowski said Stott could factor into the shortstop mix next season, but it’s also easy to connect the Phils to the star-studded upcoming free agent class at the position.

Dombrowski suggested the Phillies didn’t feel adding a star player was inherently necessary, pointing to Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola as among the club’s impact players. That’s indeed an enviable core, but this offseason presents a unique opportunity to land a potential marquee shortstop. The Phillies have made big free agent splashes in each of the past three winters — signing Harper, Wheeler and Realmuto in succession. Those players have hefty contracts on the books through at least 2024, but the Philadelphia organization has long been one of the game’s biggest spenders.

In the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, the Phillies already have north of $142MM in both actual payroll and luxury tax commitments on the books for next season. That’s before accounting for arbitration raises for Hoskins and Zach Eflin that’ll likely tack on another $12-15MM. The Phils entered the 2021 campaign with an estimated payroll just north of $191MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, although they did take on some additional salary midseason by acquiring Kyle Gibson and Ian Kennedy at the trade deadline.

It’s possible the Phils could invest heavily at the top of the shortstop market, although that’d leave them without much more breathing room to address other potential areas of need like center field, third base and the bullpen before approaching this year’s spending level. That’d be less of a concern were owner John Middleton is willing to sign off on further spending, though, and Dombrowski suggested Middleton had expressed openness to exceeding the luxury tax threshold this past trade deadline to accommodate a potential impact addition. Ultimately, the Phils did not surpass the CBT threshold, and next year’s tax threshold remains unknown, subject to the upcoming collective bargaining negotiations.

It remains to be seen in which specific direction the Phils will go, but Dombrowski’s long been known as one of the league’s most aggressive executives. There was never any expectation the club would have any interest in taking a step back, but Dombrowski’s presser only served to confirm the Phillies are again looking to address weak points on the roster and build around their high-end core.

Rangers Claim Edwar Colina From Twins

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5:16 pm: Colina recently underwent another elbow surgery, Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told reporters (including Dan Hayes of the Athletic).

3:08 pm: The Rangers announced they’ve claimed right-hander Edwar Colina off waivers from the Twins. Colina has spent the entire season on Minnesota’s injured list and will immediately land on Texas’ 60-day IL.

Colina made his first big league appearance last season. The right-hander allowed four hits and issued three walks while recording just one out in that game, but he averaged north of 97 MPH on his sinker. Entering this season, Baseball America slotted Colina as the #21 prospect in the Minnesota system, writing that his arm strength and hard-breaking slider gave him a chance to be a middle relief option in spite of below-average control.

Unfortunately, Colina missed the entire 2021 season after undergoing an arthroscopic debridement procedure on his throwing elbow in May. He did pick up a big league salary and MLB service time while on the injured list. The Rangers will take a flier to see if he can translate that big arm speed into major league success. Colina still has all three minor league option years remaining, so Texas can move him back-and-forth between Arlington and Triple-A Round Rock for the next few seasons if he sticks on the 40-man roster.

Indians Part Ways With Hitting Coach Ty Van Burkleo

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The Indians are parting ways with hitting coach Ty Van Burkleo, reports Zack Meisel of the Athletic (Twitter link). Meisel notes he’d been the longest-tenured active hitting coach in MLB. Assistant hitting coaches Victor Rodriguez and Justin Toole are expected to remain on staff, Meisel adds, but the club will pursue a new hitting coach from outside the organization.

The 57-year-old Van Burkleo appeared in the majors from 1993-94. Since retiring as a player, he’d worked in a series of coaching and player development roles, including stints as a hitting coach with the A’s and Astros and a season as the Mariners’ bench coach. Van Burkleo joined Cleveland entering the 2013 campaign, Terry Francona’s first year as Indians manager.

Francona has missed the end of each of the past two seasons because of health issues. He’s expected to return to the dugout in 2022, although he’ll do so without Van Burkleo alongside him for the first time in his Cleveland tenure. Francona and company have had plenty of success in recent years, including a 2016 American League pennant that saw Cleveland come within a game of their first World Series title since 1948.

The Indians had a disappointing 2021 campaign, though, tailing off after a solid start to the year. Cleveland had a below-average offensive unit, slashing just .238/.304/.408 (excluding pitchers). That mark ranked 22nd out of the league’s 30 clubs by measure of wRC+. Of course, some struggles at the plate were to be expected for a team that saw the departures of Francisco Lindor and Carlos Santana last offseason.

Padres Fire Jayce Tingler

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After days of rumors, the Padres have officially parted ways with manager Jayce Tingler.  The former skipper has been offered the chance to stay with the organization in another role.

“Jayce accomplished a great deal in his two seasons with the Padres, leading our team through an unprecedented pandemic and into the postseason for the first time in 15 years,” president of baseball operations A.J. Preller said.  “I have tremendous respect for him as a coach, colleague and friend.  After much thought and consideration over the last several weeks, we felt change was necessary at this time to ultimately reach our championship potential in San Diego.”

Reports surfaced over the weekend that Tingler was going to be replaced, and while the Padres announced in response that “no decision has been made on Jayce’s employment status at this time,” the writing seemed to be on the wall given the rather stunning nature of the team’s collapse.

At the end of June, the Padres were 49-33 for the season and winners of 11 of their last 12 games.  The question at the time seemed to be which of the three NL West powers (the Padres, Dodgers, and Giants) would capture the division title and which two would be destined for a showdown in the wild card game.  Instead, the Padres cratered to a 30-50 mark over their final 80 games, including a nosedive that saw the club win only seven of their final 28 contests.

The result was a 79-83 record and the Padres’ 10th losing record in 11 seasons — a bitter pill to swallow for a club coming off an NLDS appearance in 2020 and with the highest of expectations.  Despite the star-studded nature of the Padres roster, several of the big names were undone either by injury or a lack of performance, with the starting rotation being particularly hampered by injuries down the stretch.

It was clear the late-season struggle was creating friction within the team, as there were reports of clubhouse discord at Tingler’s decision-making and his ties to Preller.  The Padres’ brutal record in September and October might have well been all the evidence necessary for Preller and ownership to decide that Tingler had lost the team, and now a new manager will be needed to get the Padres on track.

Tingler finishes with a 116-106 record in his two years as San Diego’s manager, still a winning mark thanks to his success in 2020, leading the Friars to the playoffs for the first time since 2006.  The Padres’ 37-23 record was the third-best record of any team during the shortened season, and San Diego’s victory over the Cardinals in the wild card series was their first postseason triumph since the 1998 NLCS.

While a manager is usually the first to go when a team doesn’t succeed, there were enough issues with the 2021 Padres that Tingler was hardly the only one at fault.  The Padres’ next manager will be the third Preller has hired to run the club in his seven-plus years in charge of the front office, and though Preller recently signed a contract extension that runs through the 2026 season, there will certainly a lot of extra pressure on the PBO to finally turn the Padres into a consistent winner.

On the more optimistic side, a case can easily be made that the San Diego job is a prime opportunity for any manager.  There is plenty of talent on the roster, and the Padres could certainly find themselves back in contention with better health alone in 2022.  Both Tingler and previous skipper Andy Green were first-time managers, so it will be interesting to see if Preller again looks for a younger voice in the dugout or if he looks to hire a manager with past experience.

MLB To Require Vaccinations For All Minor League Players Prior To 2022 Season

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Major League Baseball is preparing a policy that will require all minor league players to be vaccinated against COVID-19 prior to the start of next season, Yahoo Sports’ Hannah Keyser reports.  The news comes just a few weeks after the league’s requirement that all players participating in the Arizona Fall League be vaccinated.

Because minor leaguers aren’t part of the players union until they have actually played in the big leagues, MLB can issue mandates covering all of minor league baseball even though some players within the farm system have already made appearances in The Show and/or are on 40-man rosters.  The league would need the MLB Players Association to agree to a vaccination policy to cover all union members and MLB players in 2022 and beyond, and it could be that the AFL and minor league edicts are the first steps towards stricter policies the Commissioner’s Office could be planning for the coming season.

Many players have already received the vaccine, of course, and 24 of the 30 teams have already had their in-season COVID-19 protocols relaxed since 85 percent of players, coaches, and medical staff were fully vaccinated.  Getting any of the 30 teams to a 100 percent vaccination rate (or even the six holdout teams to an 85 percent rate) might not be possible, however, without MLB and the MLBPA signing off on a mandate covering all Major League personnel.

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