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Yankees Notes: Shortstop, Judge, Gardner, Coaching Staff

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There are plenty of opportunities available for the Yankees, widely expected to be one of the league’s more active teams this winter. After dipping below the luxury tax threshold to reset their penalties in 2021, it seems the club is poised for a big offseason.

Early comments from general manager Brian Cashman have stoked that fire, with the baseball ops leader telling reporters at last week’s GM Meetings the front office has some financial leeway. Owner Hal Steinbrenner echoed that sentiment, telling David Lennon of Newsday that Cashman’s suggestion is “accurate.” The New York chairman declined to delve into specifics about where the club’s budgetary limit might land, but he didn’t downplay the possibility of some noteworthy moves.

The most straightforward path to a big winter would seem to be dipping into the free agent shortstop market. Not only has Cashman already professed a desire to upgrade the position, he’s confirmed the club has been in contact with the reps for multiple free agents. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network tweeted this week that the Yankees and incumbent Dodgers were among the clubs with interest in Corey Seager, while Yankees’ brass has expressed a willingness to consider Carlos Correa despite his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.

It remains to be seen whether the Yankees will be willing to commit anywhere in the neighborhood of the $300+MM guarantees it could take to land Seager or Correa though. The club has two of the game’s most promising shortstop prospects — Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe — rising up the minor league ranks. Matthew Roberson of the New York Daily News reported yesterday that the Yankees were more likely to pursue a stopgap option than to play at the top of the market at the position based on the belief that Peraza and/or Volpe could take the reins in the not too distant future. If the Yankees were to eschew the star free agents at the top of the market, Andrelton Simmons or Freddy Galvis could profile as short-term options to stabilize the infield defense.

Whether the Yankees should be willing to sit out this offseason’s shortstop class is up for debate, but doing so could allow them to allocate more funds towards locking up star outfielder Aaron Judge on a long-term deal. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Judge to command a salary in the $17.1MM range in 2022, his final season of arbitration eligibility. The three-time All-Star is slated to reach free agency next offseason.

Judge has already expressed openness to an extension. Cashman told reporters (including Bryan Hoch of MLB.com) this evening the club was willing to talk about a long-term deal with Judge’s representatives but hasn’t yet opened talks. Locking up Judge at this stage of his career would no doubt require a massive investment. The 29-year-old has already banked a significant amount during his run through arbitration, and he’s coming off a stellar .287/.373/.544 showing across 633 plate appearances.

A reunion with Brett Gardner would require a far smaller outlay but could eventually be on the to-do list. The Yankees have continued to bring the fourteen-year veteran back in recent seasons, but the 38-year-old is currently a free agent after both sides declined their ends of a 2022 option. The Yankees haven’t discussed a potential reunion with Gardner’s reps in the early stages of the offseason, Cashman said (via Hoch), but the GM said his belief is the career-long Yankee intends to continue playing.

In non-player news, Cashman also expressed a desire to expand the coaching staff. The Yankees are planning to hire three hitting coaches and an additional pitching instructor (Hoch link). That’s become an increasingly common approach, particularly this offseason. We’ve already seen teams like the Brewers and Orioles hire two hitting instructors as co-hitting coaches, with an assistant working underneath that top duo. The Yankees parted ways with previous hitting coach Marcus Thames at the end of the season.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/18/21

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Some recent minor moves from around baseball:

  • The Orioles are re-signing righty Marcos Diplán to a minor league contract, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (Twitter link). He’ll receive an invitation to big league Spring Training. Diplán made his first 23 big league appearances this past season, working 30 frames of relief. The 25-year-old managed a respectable 4.50 ERA, but that came with an unimpressive 19.5% strikeout rate and an elevated 12.2% walk percentage. The O’s outrighted Diplán off the 40-man roster after the season, but he’ll return to the organization and look to pitch his way back onto the big league club next spring.
  • The Reds agreed to a minors pact with righty Connor Overton yesterday, according to a report from Robert Murray of FanSided (on Twitter). The 28-year-old made his MLB debut with the Blue Jays in August, then landed with the Pirates via waivers the following month. Between the two clubs, he tossed 15 1/3 innings of 4.70 ERA ball with roughly league average strikeout and walk numbers. Overton had a great showing with the Jays’ Triple-A affiliate, posting a 2.03 ERA in 57 2/3 frames — working mostly out of the bullpen.
  • The Cubs reached agreement on a minor league deal earlier this week with catcher Tyler Payne, per a report from Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link). Payne made his big league debut on the final day of the regular season, going hitless in two plate appearances. Chicago outrighted him off the 40-man roster after the season but they’ll bring the 29-year-old back to bolster their organizational depth behind the plate. The right-handed hitting Payne posted a .231/.291/.363 line over 234 plate appearances with Double-A Tennessee this year.

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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The Padres went from a veritable playoff lock to a sub-.500 record on the heels of a catastrophic second-half collapse. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller will go back to the drawing board amid greater expectations and even more pressure.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Fernando Tatis Jr., SS: $329MM through 2034
  • Manny Machado, 3B: $210MM through 2028 (Machado can opt out of contract after 2023 season)
  • Eric Hosmer, 1B: $59MM through 2025
  • Yu Darvish, RHP: $37MM through 2023
  • Blake Snell, LHP: $28.5MM through 2023
  • Ha-Seong Kim, INF: $23MM through 2024 (includes $2MM buyout of $8MM mutual option for 2025)
  • Wil Myers, OF: $21MM through 2022 (includes $1MM buyout of $20MM club option for 2023)
  • Drew Pomeranz, LHP: $16MM through 2023
  • Jurickson Profar, INF/OF: $15MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $10MM mutual option for 2024; Profar can opt out of contract after 2022 season)
  • Mike Clevinger, RHP: $6.5MM through 2022
  • Craig Stammen, RHP: $4MM through 2022
  • Pierce Johnson, RHP: $3MM through 2022
  • 2022 commitments: $140.5MM
  • Total long-term commitments: $752MM

Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Strahm, Castillo, Wingenter

Option Decisions

  • Exercised $4MM club option on RHP Craig Stammen
  • Exercised $3MM club option on RHP Pierce Johnson
  • Declined $4MM club option on OF Jake Marisnick
  • Declined $800K club option on RHP Keone Kela (Kela had Tommy John surgery in late May)
  • RHP Mark Melancon declined $5MM mutual option (received $1MM buyout)

Free Agents

On the day of the 2021 trade deadline, the Padres were 61-45 — still third place in a dominant NL West division but only five games out of first and also holding a commanding five-and-a-half-game lead on the NL’s second Wild Card spot. A postseason berth seemed overwhelmingly likely. The Friars appeared poised for another aggressive deadline, reportedly making a push to acquire Max Scherzer from the Nationals while also exploring trades to shed Eric Hosmer’s contract and improve an inconsistent offense.

Instead, the division-rival Dodgers won the Scherzer bidding, and no deals involving Hosmer materialized. The Padres acquired second baseman/outfielder Adam Frazier despite having various options at both positions, and their other big deadline takeaway was reliever Daniel Hudson. That was hardly a pair of inconsequential acquisitions at the time, but Monday morning quarterbacking was in full effect as the Padres almost immediately performed a swan dive in the Wild Card standings. San Diego astonishingly went 18-38 to close out the season — not only losing a playoff spot but falling below .500 on the year.

Amid that catastrophic fall from grace were reports of tensions in the clubhouse. Second-year manager Jayce Tingler reportedly lost the locker room late in the year, and public-facing spats involving star players like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado only fanned the flames on that narrative.

It came as little surprise, then, to see the offseason begin with Tingler’s ousting. (He’s since joined the Twins as their new bench coach.) What was a surprise — to put things mildly — was the sudden hiring of longtime Athletics manager Bob Melvin, who agreed to a three-year deal to take the reins in San Diego. Melvin was under contract with the A’s through the 2022 season, but a cost-cutting A’s club let him interview and sign with the Padres on a reported three-year, $12MM contract — asking for no compensation in return.

It was a legitimate shocker and widely viewed as something of a coup for the Friars. While their 2021 season ended in disaster, the 2021-22 offseason kicked off on an immensely positive note. Those good feelings will only extend so long, however, and Preller & Co. must now look for ways to improve a roster that faceplanted in the season’s second half.

The first question, quite likely, is simply one of where to begin. The Padres have a remarkable 23 players either on guaranteed contracts or eligible for arbitration, presenting them with a nearly full active roster before even making a move. They’ll surely make some subtractions via non-tender and trade in the coming days, and it stands to reason that the team will again revisit some of those deadline-season trade endeavors.

The reported effort to move Hosmer, for instance, was surely fueled by a desire to improve upon his pedestrian offensive performance but was also borne out of a desire to curb a payroll that has increasingly soared to previously unseen levels in San Diego.  Both Hosmer and Wil Myers are slightly above-average hitters with salaries north of $20MM on the books in 2022. The urgency to move Hosmer’s deal is only heightened by the fact that he’d gain 10-and-5 rights (10 years of MLB service, past five with the same team) at the end of the 2022 season — which would give him full veto power over any trade.

The Padres’ 2022 payroll is already projected by Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez at a staggering $192MM — with nearly $209MM of luxury-tax considerations. That $192MM mark is already nearly $20MM higher than the prior franchise-record. While ownership may be comfortable taking the overall budget to new heights — it’s doubtful they’d have signed Tatis and Machado to those mega-deals were that not the case — the budget surely isn’t limitless. And considering the fact that this Padres club ranked 14th in each of total runs scored, combined wRC+, ERA and FIP, it’s obvious that improvements are needed on both ends of the roster.

Looking for creative ways to shed the contracts of Hosmer or Myers figure to again be revisited this winter, and the Padres have no shortage of square pegs currently being asked to fill round holes. Acquiring Adam Frazier was something of a curious fit in the first place, given the presence of Machado, Tatis and All-Star second baseman Jake Cronenworth, but Frazier’s projected $7.2MM salary now looks even more questionable on the Padres’ roster. He’s obviously a fine player based on his track record in Pittsburgh, but perhaps the lack of a defined role in San Diego didn’t agree with him.

That same logic, to some extent, applies to infielder Ha-Seong Kim. The Padres signed the former KBO superstar to a four-year deal despite lacking obvious infield playing time for him, and Kim struggled to find his footing as he adjusted to big league pitching with inconsistent playing time across multiple positions. Kim was viewed as the equivalent of an MLB-ready, top 100 prospect at the time of his signing but hit just .202/.270/.352 while averaging fewer than three plate appearances over his 117 games.

Between Kim, Frazier and Jurickson Profar, whose questionable three-year deal only looks even more dubious now, the Padres are set to pay upwards of $20MM to a trio of players who don’t even have a defined spot in the everyday lineup. Trading any of the three should be firmly on the table, as should the easier-said-than-done possibility of finally finding a partner in a Hosmer or Myers trade. From a purely speculative standpoint, the money remaining on the Hosmer and Aaron Hicks contracts are quite similar, and Hosmer’s contact-oriented lefty bat could be of some appeal to the Yankees if they don’t re-sign Anthony Rizzo.

If the Padres ultimately are able to shed some of the currently questionable fits for their lineup, they’ll look for ways to quickly reallocate any dollars saved and lineup spots that were vacated. With Tommy Pham reaching free agency and Myers standing as a viable trade candidate, a corner outfielder could be a sensible upgrade. The aforementioned Frazier can certainly handle left field, but alternatives on the market include the likes of Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Michael Conforto, Starling Marte, Avisail Garcia and NPB superstar Seiya Suzuki. At first base, the open market has Rizzo, while the trade market will include Matt Olson, Luke Voit and others.

If the designated hitter is indeed added to the National League, as is widely expected, it’s likely Preller will look to old friend Nelson Cruz. Preller has shown a clear affinity for former Rangers players in past iterations of the Padres’ roster, and he even explored the possibility of acquiring Cruz at the trade deadline and playing him at first base. The addition of a DH would also make it easier for San Diego (or any other NL club) to put forth a long-term offer for either of Castellanos or Schwarber, who boast imposing bats but come with sub-par defensive grades.

On the pitching side of things, the Padres have a pretty strong group on paper. The combination of Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Mike Clevinger, Dinelson Lamet and Chris Paddack looks sound. The trio of MacKenzie Gore, Adrian Morejon (who had Tommy John surgery in May) and Ryan Weathers makes for an enticing and upside-laden series of depth options.

That said, the starting rotation was expected to be a strength in 2021 but turned into a glaring liability. Darvish melted down the stretch after a strong first several months, while the opposite was true of Snell. Lamet’s ongoing injury woes limited his innings and placed a large slate of red flags on him for the 2022 season. Clevinger, like Morejon, is coming back from Tommy John surgery and as we know, that’s hardly a lock. (Just look at Noah Syndergaard’s 2021 season.) Paddack, meanwhile, struggled throughout the season and has yet to recapture his brilliant rookie form. Weathers was hit hard after a promising start, and most confounding of all, Gore barely pitched in the minors — instead spending much of the season working through mechanical issues at the Padres’ Arizona facility.

By late in the season, the Padres were giving starts to reclamation projects like Jake Arrieta and Vince Velasquez as they clung to faint postseason hopes. The end result was a rotation that finished 29th in the Majors in innings pitched (741 1/3) and 18th in ERA (4.54).

Further compounding matters for the Friars is that the rotation is a rather expensive group. Darvish, Snell, Musgrove, Clevinger, Paddack and Lamet will earn somewhere in the vicinity of $55MM combined, but only Musgrove showed any real consistency in 2021. San Diego will hope that swapping out former pitching coach Larry Rothschild — who was fired in August — for Ruben Niebla will help to improve the results. That said, if the Padres are again looking for ways to shake up the roster, it’s at least feasible that one of Darvish or Snell could be moved as a means of freeing up payroll and opening a spot for a different acquisition.

The uncertainty surrounding several promising young arms — Weathers, Gore, Morejon, and Lamet — also raises the possibility of moving anyone from that group in a trade of note. Preller is routinely involved in all of the big names on the market, and it’s easy to imagine Oakland’s Olson and perhaps one of their available starters piquing the Padres’ interest. A shot at a high-ceiling wild card like Minnesota’s Byron Buxton, or perhaps an aggressive pursuit of a Cincinnati starter like Sonny Gray or Luis Castillo could seemingly be in the cards, too. It’s easy to write off the Padres as a team that doesn’t definitively “need” another starter, but Preller showed last year in acquiring Darvish, Snell and Musgrove that he’s unafraid to stockpile pieces in areas where the big league roster does not have a dire need. (See also: the signing of Kim and acquisition of Frazier.)

As far as relief pitching is concerned, the Padres generally appear to have a strong group, but that shouldn’t squarely rule them out from making some notable additions. Mark Melancon led baseball in saves this past season and is now a free agent. He came to the Padres on a bargain deal after his market failed to materialize last winter, so it’s unlikely he’d be re-signed at a premium rate. Waiting out the market and pouncing on a veteran arm again this offseason makes sense, though, particularly with standout southpaw Drew Pomeranz on the mend from a torn flexor tendon.

As is the case in the rotation and the lineup, however, the Padres can’t be ruled out if a big-name reliever becomes available via trade. Don’t be surprised to see them linked to Josh Hader or Craig Kimbrel in the weeks and months to come.

More than any team in Major League Baseball, the Padres have proven themselves difficult to predict. Preller’s “Rock Star GM” moniker, given to him by Matt Kemp after a dizzying flurry of transactions in his first offseason on the job, is often used in humorous fashion — but it’s also rooted in some truth. Preller has shown a repeated affinity to grab headlines with fearless trades, free-agent signings and extensions alike, often moving players who seemed unattainable or acquiring players despite a lack of obvious need. He is quite arguably the sport’s most aggressive baseball operations leader, and given the mounting expectations in San Diego and a shocking freefall from 2021 playoff contention, there’s more pressure than ever to find the right pieces.

Braves Select Drew Waters, Three Others

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The Braves announced that they’ve added four prospects — outfielder Drew Waters and right-handed pitchers Freddy Tarnok, Brooks Wilson and William Woods — to their 40-man roster. All four players would have been eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not added to Atlanta’s roster before tomorrow evening’s deadline. The club’s 40-man is now full.

Waters is the highest-profile of the bunch. A second-round pick in 2017, the switch-hitting outfielder emerged as one of the sport’s most promising prospects early in his career. Waters hit very well in the low minors, flashing a strong combination of bat-to-ball skills, athleticism and defensive aptitude in center field. By 2019, he’d made it onto Baseball America’s top 100 overall prospects list. He remained one of the game’s top farmhands over the next few years, topping out at #32 entering this past season.

The 2021 campaign was something of a struggle, though, as the 22-year-old spent the entire year with Triple-A Gwinnett. He hit .240/.329/.381 with 11 homers over 459 plate appearances, striking out at an alarming 30.9% clip. As he’s climbed the minor league ladder, evaluators have increasingly raised questions about his aggressive approach at the plate. Waters’ issues against high minors pitching have dinged his stock a bit, but he still checked as the #6 farmhand in the system this offseason and was always a lock to be protected given his pre-2021 pedigree. Depending on how the Braves address their uncertain outfield mix this winter, Waters could be a big league option fairly early in 2022.

Tarnok, Atlanta’s third-round pick in 2017, has slowly progressed up the minor league ladder. The 22-year-old (23 next week) reached Double-A this season, where he worked to a 2.60 ERA over 45 innings with a fantastic 33.7% strikeout percentage and a manageable 8.3% walk rate. Keith Law of the Athletic wrote in July that Tarnok could be an above-average starter at his peak, praising his 93-96 MPH fastball, athleticism and curveball feel. He’s yet to reach Triple-A, though, so it seems likely the Braves will want Tarnok to get a bit more seasoning in the minors before bringing him up for his big league debut.

Wilson, 25, was a seventh-round pick out of Stetson University in 2018. He’s never appeared on an organizational ranking at either FanGraphs or Baseball America, but he had a very strong season between Double-A Mississippi and Gwinnett in 2021. Over 50 innings of relief, Wilson worked to a combined 2.34 ERA with an astronomical 41.4% strikeout rate and a 9.4% walk percentage. He could be an option for the MLB bullpen as soon as next season.

Woods, 22, was a 23rd-rounder in that 2018 draft out of a Tennessee junior college. Both BA and FanGraphs ranked him the #21 prospect in the Atlanta system entering 2021, praising his mid-high 90’s fastball and promising slider. Both outlets expressed reservations about his control but suggested his velocity could at least make him an effective option out of the bullpen. Injuries limited him to just four appearances at High-A Rome this year.

Mets Name Billy Eppler General Manager

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Nov. 18: The Mets have announced the hiring of Eppler on a four-year deal, as expected.

Nov. 17: The agreement being finalized is a four-year contract, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Newsday’s David Lennon tweets that the hiring will likely become official on Friday.

Nov. 15: After weeks of searching for a new baseball operations leader, the Mets are reportedly finalizing a contract and naming former Angels GM Billy Eppler their new general manager. Eppler’s hiring will give the Mets an experienced baseball operations leader to take over a department that has seen a staggering amount of turnover in the past year.

Billy Eppler

The Mets have effectively been without a general manager for more than a calendar year now, since incoming owner Steve Cohen dismissed former general manager Brodie Van Wagenen the day his sale of the team was finalized. New York sought to hire a high-profile executive to overtake the baseball operations department last year, but after struggling to obtain permission to interview several high-ranking officials with other clubs, Cohen and returning team president Sandy Alderson settled on naming D-backs assistant GM Jared Porter their new general manager.

The Porter hiring proved regrettable almost immediately, as he was fired just six weeks into his tenure following the revelation of repeated sexual harassment of a reporter years prior. Zack Scott, who’d been hired from the Red Sox as an assistant GM, was elevated to the title of “acting GM” and thought to be a candidate for permanent promotion to the GM post before he was arrested on a DWI charge over the summer. He’s since been cut from the organization himself.

Cohen and Alderson opened the 2021-22 offseason with a similar plan to last year, hoping to interview some of the biggest front-office names in the sport. A meeting between Theo Epstein and Cohen, however, ended with both sides reportedly agreeing there was not a fit. The Brewers denied permission to interview David Stearns for a second straight offseason, and longtime A’s baseball operations leader Billy Beane withdrew his name from the running before taking a meeting. Thus began a series of denials for the Mets — some when another team refused to grant permission to interview an executive and some when an executive with another club declined to interview at all.

After a dizzying sequence of candidates had come to light, the Mets turned to the agent world once again. Eppler, two months ago, had accepted a position with William Morris Endeavor — a well-known talent representation company in Hollywood that has recently branched out into baseball representation. Eppler was expected to help head up a fledgling baseball practice with WME, who a year ago landed star shortstop Carlos Correa as its highest-profile client. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that Eppler had inked a five-year deal with WME but will instead quickly return to the other side of the negotiation table.

Eppler is no stranger to New York City after a decade-long run in the Yankees’ front office prior to his run with the Halos. The now-46-year-old broke into baseball as a scout with the Rockies in the early 2000s before joining the Yankees in that same role. He was eventually named the Yankees’ director of scouting and, in 2011, promoted to the title of assistant general manager — a role he’d hold until being hired to lead the Angels’ baseball operations staff following the 2015 season.

The Angels opted to move on from Eppler last offseason despite a year remaining on his contract, as he’d not yet produced a postseason team during that time. Of course, Eppler also inherited a barren farm system a payroll outlook that was bogged down by an ownership-driven signing of Albert Pujols, and a team that was in the “penalty box” in terms of international signing capabilities for the first couple years of his tenure there.

To Eppler’s credit, the Angels wooed Shohei Ohtani under his watch and also worked out a record extension with center fielder Mike Trout, likely keeping him in Anaheim for the duration of his career. It was also under Eppler that the Angels extended Justin Upton on an ill-fated five-year contract and signed Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $245MM that did nothing to address the team’s rotation deficiencies — although as Maria Torres of the L.A. Times explored at the time of that 2019 signing, owner Arte Moreno’s fixation on acquiring Rendon pre-dated Eppler’s hiring as general manager.

Free-agent spending was generally limited for Eppler — not surprising given the mammoth outlays on the books — and often resulted in a series of one-year deals for high-risk players. Signings of Matt Harvey, Julio Teheran, Tim Lincecum, Cody Allen and Trevor Cahill didn’t prove fruitful, nor was a three-year deal for infielder Zack Cozart, which was the only free-agent deal other than Rendon that was priced at even $20MM during Eppler’s tenure. In addition to the struggles in free agency, many of the Angels’ homegrown arms were regularly injured and/or wildly inconsistent.

Free agency is only one piece of the puzzle for any baseball ops leader, though, and it should be noted that Eppler has a pretty solid track record on the trade front. The Angels’ initial acquisition of Upton was shrewd, prior to that regrettable extension, and several other notable trades under his watch panned out quite well for the Angels. Andrelton Simmons, Patrick Sandoval, Max Stassi, Tommy La Stella, Felix Pena and Dylan Bundy (who was excellent for the Halos in 2020) were all acquired at generally minimal cost. Eppler had a knack for finding waiver gems, too, as evidenced by the team’s success with Hansel Robles, Brian Goodwin, Blake Parker and Noe Ramirez.

While it was a rather circuitous route to get here, the Mets’ ultimate GM hire in many ways resembles the candidates they began seeking out of the gate this offseason. Recent Mets targets have generally been the second or third in command of opposing teams’ baseball operations hierarchies, but Eppler is an experienced baseball ops leader who is familiar with big markets and comes with some name recognition. That falls more in line with the Mets’ early pursuits of Epstein, Stearns and Beane than with recent interest in a slew of assistant GMs.

Once Eppler is formally installed and announced as the new general manager, he could get the opportunity to operate with a bit more latitude than was afforded to him under the Halos and Moreno. His first order of business will be to name a manager to replace Luis Rojas, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman suggests that former Angels skipper Brad Ausmus could be high on Eppler’s list. That wouldn’t come as much of a surprise given that Eppler hired Ausmus to lead his staff in Anaheim, but the Mets figure to embark on a full-fledged managerial search and interview a number of candidates before making any final decisions on that front.

SNY’s Andy Martino reported earlier today that Eppler had gained traction as a leading candidate in the Mets’ search. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal first reported that the Mets had made an offer to Eppler (Twitter link). Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported that Eppler and Cohen had met face-to-face over the weekend and that a contract was in the works (Twitter links). MLB Network’s Jon Heyman added that talks were in the final stages.

Carlos Correa Meets With Tigers Manager A.J. Hinch

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Longtime Astros shortstop Carlos Correa — MLBTR’s top-ranked free agent — was spotted having breakfast with Tigers manager A.J. Hinch at a Houston cafe on Thursday morning (photo taken by Astros blogger Zach Hablinski). Hinch was, of course, Correa’s manager in Houston from 2015 to 2019.

It’d be dangerous to read too much into the meeting. Beyond his previous relationship with Hinch, Correa is widely considered the top free agent this winter and is likely to meet with quite a few teams. Still, it’s easy to draw the connection between the two-time All-Star and the club. The Tigers have made it very clear they intend to open their pocketbook this winter, and Correa makes lots of sense for a club with money to spend and a desire to push themselves into a contention window. Indeed, the Tigers, who have already added starter Eduardo Rodriguez (the biggest free agent signing of the winter so far) and catcher Tucker Barnhart, are widely expected to be among the most active teams.

Were Correa to make his way to Detroit, he’d less upgrade than revolutionize the Tigers’ outlook at the position. The position was something of a black hole for the club in 2021; Niko Goodrum, Zack Short, and Harold Castro each saw significant time, but none came particularly close to even league-average production. Each of the three (particularly Goodrum) has enough positional versatility to provide some value, but none are likely to be in the Tigers’ long-term plans. Combined with the acquisitions of Rodriguez and Barnhart, adding Correa wouldn’t necessarily vault the Tigers (who finished eight games below .500 in 2021) into contention, but he’d clearly make a team with a lot of promising young starting pitching better for years to come.

Very much in the prime of his career as he enters his age-27 season, Correa is coming off a platform year that saw him slash .279/.366/.485 (not to mention an astounding 20 Defensive Runs Saved) that more or less matches his career .277/.356/.481 line. Given both his offensive pedigree and his stellar glovework at a premium position he’ll likely be able to play for years to come, Correa is a pretty safe bet to demand a contract that at least approaches the market-setting 10-year, $341MM extension the Mets gave Francisco Lindor just ahead of this year’s Opening Day. MLBTR projects he’ll ultimately sign for $320MM over ten years.

Though any effect it will have on his market will be negligible, whichever team signs Correa will be required to forfeit a draft pick, as he received (and rejected) a qualifying offer from the Astros. Only the handful of teams shopping in free agency’s premium aisle will have a shot at getting his name on the dotted line, but the Tigers will hardly be alone in pursuing his signature. The Yankees — who’ve made clear they intend to replace Gleyber Torres at shortstop — have explicitly put to rest any speculation that they’d avoid Correa due to fan resentment stemming from his role in the 2017 sign-stealing scandal, and will have plenty of money to spend after dipping below the luxury tax threshold in 2021. Beyond the Tigers and Yankees, MLBTR lists the Phillies, Rangers, Angels, Mariners, and Cardinals as potential suitors in the Correa sweepstakes.

Rob Manfred Discusses Possibility Of A Lockout

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The current collective bargaining agreement expires in less than two weeks, with the possibility of an offseason freeze looming. If a new deal isn’t agreed upon when the current one wraps up at 11:59 pm EST on December 1, the general expectation within the industry is that owners will lock the players out — resulting in a ban on transactions until another agreement is reached.

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred addressed the state of the labor situation when speaking with reporters (including Evan Drellich of the Athletic and Jeff Passan of ESPN) this afternoon. The commissioner stopped short of calling a lockout an inevitability, but he certainly seemed to suggest that course of action was on the table. Manfred drew a distinction between the impact a winter transactions freeze would have on the sport versus that of a work stoppage that lingers into next season.

“I can’t believe there’s a single fan in the world who doesn’t understand that an offseason lockout that moves the process forward is different than a labor dispute that costs games,” he said. As to whether the sides still had hope of hammering out a new CBA before December 1, Manfred said the league was “committed to continuing to offer proposals and suggestions in an effort to get to an agreement before” that date, but acknowledged that “time is becoming an issue.”

Technically, the expiration of the CBA wouldn’t necessitate a lockout. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explored in August, the sides continued to conduct offseason business during the last winters (1993-94 and 94-95) that proceeded without a CBA in place. The players went on strike when no agreement was reached during the 1994 season, and that year’s World Series was eventually cancelled.

Manfred implied the league wouldn’t want to run the risk of negotiating without an agreement this time around, pointing to the ’94 strike and trends in other professional sports leagues as justification. “I don’t think ’94 worked out too great for anybody,” Manfred said. “I think when you look at other sports, the pattern has become to control the timing of the labor dispute and try to minimize the prospect of actual disruption of the season. That’s what it’s about: It’s avoiding doing damage to the season.”

The commissioner’s comments come amidst a background of a very slow back-and-forth between the league and Players Association. The MLBPA has made two core economics proposals over the past six months; the league has made just one, although it made an alteration to its August offer last week. It doesn’t seem there’s been much progress on economics issues, with the MLBPA pursuing such goals as raised luxury tax thresholds and earlier arbitration eligibility. The league, meanwhile, has pushed for lowered luxury tax markers and an age-based system for free agency eligibility that could delay the path to the open market for the game’s brightest stars, among other things.

While much of Manfred’s focus was unsurprisingly on the core economic structure of the game, he also touched on a few other topics. The commissioner expressed optimism about the league’s ongoing testing of pre-tacked baseballs, suggesting they hoped to test the prototype in Spring Training 2022. Manfred didn’t rule out the possibility of using a pre-tacked ball in regular season games at some point next season. He also voiced support for the possibility of a pitch clock being implemented in upcoming CBA talks, saying that “owners remain very interested in” introducing a clock at the major league level after testing it in minor league games for years.

Manfred also addressed the respective stadium situations in Tampa Bay and Oakland. He again suggested Las Vegas could be a viable landing spot for the A’s if they’re unable to work out a deal in the Bay Area. Manfred confirmed that the Rays have made a proposal to the league’s executive committee regarding the franchise’s hopes for splitting home games between Tampa and Montreal. (John Romano of The Tampa Bay Times explored the issue at greater length earlier in the week). The executive committee has yet to weigh in on the topic, Manfred said this afternoon.

Finally, the league announced the previously-reported decision to provide housing for minor league players in 2022. Josh Norris of Baseball America shed some light on the details, reporting that teams will now be responsible for leases and utility agreements for players on minor league contracts who make less than $20K per month. Norris adds further details on the base amenities (including utilities, electricity and WiFi) that acceptable residences must include. His full piece is a worthwhile read for those interested in the specifics of the new policy.

Bryce Harper, Shohei Ohtani Win MVP Awards

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Bryce Harper and Shohei Ohtani have been named the respective league Most Valuable Players, according to announcements from the Baseball Writers Association of America. It’s the second MVP of Harper’s career, while Ohtani’s a first-time winner.

Harper led all hitters (minimum 500 plate appearances) by measure of wRC+ this past season. His .309/.429/.615 line checked in 70 percentage points above the league average. The Phillies star ranked sixth in the National League with 35 home runs and paced the league with 42 doubles, leading to an NL-best slugging percentage. Harper also drew plenty of walks, as he does on an annual basis, leading to the second-highest on-base percentage in the Senior Circuit.

The six-time All-Star was especially great down the stretch. Over the season’s second half, Harper mashed at a .338/.476/.713 clip, helping him earn his second career Silver Slugger award as well. Harper didn’t rate particularly well defensively, but that sheer offensive excellence was enough to take the crown. This kind of season is no doubt what the Phils had in mind when signing him to a record-breaking $330MM free agent contract. He’ll remain in Philly through 2031, and the organization and fanbase can hope for a few more seasons of this ilk from the likely future Hall of Famer.

Harper appeared on all 30 ballots, garnering 17 first-place votes. That was enough to edge out the Nationals’ Juan Soto and the Padres’ Fernando Tatís Jr., the other two NL finalists. Soto picked up six first-place votes after posting a .313/.465/.534 line and pacing the league in on-base percentage. Tatís bopped a league-best 42 homers while playing a good chunk of the season at shortstop, a performance that earned him two first-place votes. Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford and Nationals/Dodgers infielder Trea Turner were the other players to receive first-place nods, enough to finish in fourth and fifth place, respectively.

Voting in the American League was far more resounding, as Ohtani claimed the award unanimously. It’s easy to understand why, as he’s coming off a season unlike any we’ve seen in recent memory. As a hitter, the 27-year-old mashed at a .257/.372/.592 clip. He popped 46 home runs, a mark that trailed only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Salvador Pérez in the AL. Only Guerrero had a higher slugging percentage (again minimum 500 PA), while Guerrero, Yuli Gurriel, Yoan Moncada and Aaron Judge were the group to top Ohtani in on-base percentage.

That work at the plate alone would have been enough to get Ohtani on MVP ballots, but his additional contributions on the mound made him an easy choice for voters. After injuries limited his pitching workload over his first two big league seasons, Ohtani stayed mostly healthy in 2021 and logged a career-best 130 1/3 frames. He pitched to a 3.18 ERA that was ninth-lowest among the 64 AL hurlers with 100+ innings. Ohtani’s 29.3% strikeout rate checked in sixth among that same group, while he placed fifth in strikeout/walk rate differential (21 percentage points) and sixth in SIERA (3.61). He’s controllable through 2023 via arbitration, although it stands to reason the Angels would love to work out an extension to keep the two-way star in the fold for the long-term.

While Ohtani’s historic showing took the suspense out of the result, that’s not to say there weren’t worthy challengers. Guerrero led the AL in both on-base and slugging en route to a second-place finish. 29 voters placed Guerrero second on their ballot, with the only other second-place nod going to Pérez. Guerrero’s teammate with the Blue Jays, Marcus Semien, easily finished in third place, followed by Judge and Carlos Correa.

Full balloting results available.

Images courtesy of USA TODAY Sports.

D-backs Hire Brent Strom As Pitching Coach

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Nov. 18: The Diamondbacks have officially announced they’ve hired Strom as their pitching coach.

11:52am: Strom confirms to Mark Berman of FOX 26 in Houston that he has accepted an offer to be the next pitching coach of the Diamondbacks. “It’s an exciting time for me,” says Strom. “It’s a challenging job obviously. They’re much better than what their record showed.”

Strom also confirms the change of scenery to Rosenthal (Twitter links): “Me leaving the Astros had nothing to do with any disagreements or anything like that. Just a gut feeling on my part that eight years was long enough. It’s really in good shape with the people they have now.” He also heaps praise on Astros skipper Dusty Baker, calling him “as good a human being as I’ve ever been around in my life.”

11:43am: The Diamondbacks are set to hire Brent Strom as their new pitching coach, per Ken Rosenthal and Andy McCullough of The Athletic (Twitter link). The hire comes just nine days after Strom announced that he would not return as the Astros’ pitching coach.

Strom didn’t commit to retirement at the time of his departure from the Houston organization, suggesting such a route could be on the table but also squarely leaving the door open for further coaching opportunities in the Majors. As USA Today’s Bob Nightengale points out, Strom resides in Tucson, Ariz., so the move to the D-backs brings him much closer to home.

It’s a notable get for the D-backs, who had one of the worst pitching staffs in Major League Baseball this past season and will soon welcome a bevy of interesting young arms to the big league ranks. Strom spent eight seasons as the pitching coach for the Astros, helping to develop a number of quality young arms and also turn around the careers of some previously unheralded journeymen.  While a pitching coach alone isn’t solely responsible for the successes of a staff — certainly not in the era of advance scouting and mounting data provided from analytics staffs — it’d be foolish not to credit Strom as a significant factor in the success of the Astros’ pitching staff over the years.

Young arms like Corbin Martin, Ryne Nelson, and Bryce Jarvis are all expected to begin next year in Double-A or higher, making them relatively near-term options for the big league club in Arizona. Strom ought to have the opportunity to work with them and with several of the D-backs younger arms in camp this spring, too — a group that includes names like Slade Cecconi and Blake Walston.

Of course, beyond the up-and-coming prospects, the D-backs will look to Strom to help right the ship for a club that posted the second-worst team ERA (5.15) and FIP (4.88) in all of Major League Baseball. Still-developing arms like Zac Gallen, Luke Weaver, Tyler Gilbert and J.B. Bukauskas will hope for better results and/or better health, and even an elder statesman such as Madison Bumgarner will surely welcome new ideas under Strom.

More than ever, it takes a village to field a competitive pitching staff (or, more broadly, a competitive roster), but there are few hires the D-backs could have made who would’ve commanded as much respect from the pitchers he’ll now oversee and from his peers on manager Torey Lovullo’s staff.

Trevor Story Meets With Rangers

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The Rangers hosted longtime Rockies shortstop (and Dallas-area native) Trevor Story on Tuesday, per a report from Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. While virtually every team with money to spend and a need up the middle is likely to at least the kick the tires on Story, the report of an in-person meeting suggests the Rangers may be looking to move early in the scramble for a historic class of high-end shortstops (a list that also includes Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Javier Baez).

Given their stated intention to be aggressive in free agency and their clear need at short, the Rangers are sure to at least check in with other free agent shortstops, but there’s more to recommend Story than his status as native son. MLBTR’s eighth-ranked free agent, Story didn’t have the strongest platform year (.251/.329/.471 in 595 plate appearances), but his career line of .272/.340/.523 stands out at the premium position of shortstop — particularly given Story’s top-notch glovework (69 DRS across six seasons).

Of course, it’s always worth caveating the offensive numbers of any player who’s played half his games a mile above sea level, and Story’s home-road splits are substantial. His career OPS at Coors Field (.972) tells a very different story than his OPS on the road (.752). Story’s OPS+ numbers — 103 in 2021, 112 for his career — adjust for park factors and may give a clearer picture of what teams ought to expect from him at the plate moving forward. He’s also entering his age-29 season (not to mention coming off an elbow injury that sapped his power for much of 2021), so he’s a solid bet to see at least some decline over the course of a long-term deal.

The Rangers have needs all over the diamond, and finding a place for Story would hardly be a challenge. While incumbent Isiah Kiner-Falefa put together a solid season overall (particularly with the glove), neither Brock Holt nor Charlie Culberson (the Ranger’s primary third basemen in 2021, both of whom are free agents) are likely to feature in the club’s long-term (or, frankly, short-term) plans, and it isn’t clear that they view Andy Ibañez or Nick Solak as the long-term solution at second.

Because Story declined a qualifying offer, the team that signs him will have to forfeit a draft pick. As the Rangers neither paid the luxury tax nor received revenue-sharing payments in 2021, the two-time all-star would cost the club its second-highest 2022 draft pick (currently the third pick of the second round) and $500K in international bonus pool money (here is an MLBTR primer on how compensation works). MLBTR predicts he’ll get a six-year, $126MM deal and lists the Rangers as a likely suitor, though they’re hardly alone. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reported Tuesday that at least eight teams have checked in with Story’s representatives.

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