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Latest On Starling Marte’s Market

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We’ve seen an unusual number of high-profile free agents come off the board in the first few weeks of November, though they’ve all been pitchers to this point. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman suggests, however, that the market for Starling Marte is strong enough that he could also sign this month, prior to the Dec. 1 expiration of the collective bargaining agreement.

That the 33-year-old Marte would command robust interest is only logical, given his longstanding track record and a brilliant 2021 campaign. While he’s a older than your typical free agent thanks to the club-friendly contract he inked early in his career, Marte has shown no signs of slowing down. To the contrary, his 2021 season was arguably his best yet. In 526 plate appearances between the Marlins and A’s, Marte turned in a .308/.381/.456 with a dozen home runs, 27 doubles and three triples — all while going 47-for-52 in stolen base attempts. He’s also perhaps the lone everyday center field option on the market.

Even if conventional wisdom suggests that the fleet-footed Marte will eventually slow down and move to a corner in a few years’ time, he still grades out as a plus runner and a respectable defensive option in center for the time being. Both Outs Above Average (2) and Ultimate Zone Rating (1.0) graded Marte as slightly above average, whereas Defensive Runs Saved was a bit below-average at minus-4. Make what you will of defensive metrics, which can of course be spotty on a year-to-year basis, but Marte has generally been passable in center and plus in left field. He also still ranks in the 83rd percentile of MLB players in terms of average sprint speed (28.4 ft/sec).

Given the scarcity of Marte’s skill set, the number of teams looking for help in the outfield (center field, in particular) and the lack of qualifying offer attached to him (he was ineligible by virtue of being traded), it’s no wonder that his market has quickly picked up steam. Prior reports have linked the Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Yankees and Giants to Marte, and Heyman tweeted this week that the Rangers — whom most expect to be quite aggressive in free agency — have also been weighing a run at Marte. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds this morning that the Astros, fresh off re-signing Justin Verlander, are being aggressive in their own efforts to sign Marte.

As we noted when ranking Marte 13th on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 free agent rankings, the list of teams with interest in bringing Marte aboard will be quite long. He’s been widely expected to command at least a three-year deal in free agency — the Marlins offered a lowball, three-year deal in the $30-39MM range prior to trading him — and with a number of recent free agents commanding premium salaries through age-36, we pegged him for a four-year deal at a total of $80MM.

Reds Rumors: Castillo, Bullpen, Garrett

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It was only natural that after waiving Wade Miley and trading Tucker Barnhart within hours of the offseason opening, rumblings of the Reds being open to further cost-saving moves would emerge. However, despite early reports that Cincinnati will at least listen to offers on righty Luis Castillo, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that it’s “doubtful” the 28-year-old (29 next month) will ultimately change hands.

This marks the second straight offseason that Castillo’s name has surfaced in trade rumblings, which only makes sense given that it’s also the second straight winter punctuated by cost-cutting measures in Cincinnati. General manager Nick Krall has already stated that the Reds “must align our payroll to our resources.” While no specific number was provided, that certainly doesn’t bode well for Reds fans — particularly when taken in conjunction with the aforementioned Miley and Barnhart transactions.

Rosenthal’s report is likely reflective of what is surely a sky-high asking price for the talented Castillo, who racked up the eighth-most innings of any pitcher in MLB last season (187 2/3). While Castillo’s 3.98 ERA looks more solid than dominant, it’s skewed a bit by a rough start to the season from which he recovered rather emphatically.

Sporting an alarming and uncharacteristic 7.22 ERA through the end of May, Castillo looked on his way to a lost season. From June 1 through season’s end, however, Castillo rebounded with a masterful 2.73 ERA with a strong 26% strikeout rate, a 9.4% walk rate and a massive 59.9% ground-ball rate. That recovery salvaged Castillo’s 2021 season and brought his ERA over the past three campaigns to a sharp 3.61 mark through 448 1/3 frames.

Controlled through 2023 via arbitration, Castillo is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $7.6MM in 2022. He’d be due one more raise for the 2023 campaign, likely taking his salary into at least the $11-12MM range — still an eminently reasonable price to pay for a pitcher of this caliber.

The Reds and other clubs likely view Castillo as a pitcher capable of taking his game to yet another level. While his results over the past three seasons are quite strong already, the makings of a top-of-the-rotation starter are seemingly present. Castillo’s 97.3 mph average fastball trailed only Sandy Alcantara and Gerrit Cole among qualified starters this past season, while his 13.1% swinging-strike rate (a down mark, by his standards) ranked 10th. Castillo also sports an elite ground-ball rate, a well above-average strikeout rate and typically limits hard contact at a high level.

The extent to which owner Bob Castellini is seeking to reduce payroll will determine the urgency when it comes to moving Castillo, but even if Krall and his staff feel compelled to move him eventually, the return would be considerable. (As a loose comparison, recall that the Blue Jays traded 2020 No. 5 overall pick Austin Martin and well-regarded pitching prospect Simeon Woods Richardson to acquire what was then 1.5 seasons of Jose Berrios back at the trade deadline.) Even if teams feel it’s “doubtful” the Reds actually trade Castillo, they’ll surely still try to pry him away — just as they’ll likely do with righties Sonny Gray (guaranteed $10MM in 2022) and Tyler Mahle (like Castillo, controlled via arbitration through 2023).

Krall, however, didn’t focus on subtracting from the roster in his most recent public comments. To the contrary, the GM spoke with Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer this week about a need to “rebuild some of the bullpen” after seeing Mychal Givens and Michael Lorenzen reach free agency and losing Tejay Antone (Tommy John surgery) for the 2022 season.

Heading into the 2022 campaign, the most experienced arms in the Reds’ bullpen group will be Lucas Sims, Amir Garrett, Luis Cessa and lefty Justin Wilson, who exercised a $2.3MM player option at season’s end. Righty Art Warren, he of a 1.29 ERA and 34-to-8 K/BB ratio in 21 innings after being claimed from the Mariners, should have a spot locked down as well. Krall offered plenty of praise for Sims and Warren, also adding that righty Tony Santillan may be stretched out as a rotation candidate in Spring Training but could yet end up in the ’pen.

Perhaps most interestingly among Krall’s comments — which Cincinnati fans, in particular, will want to read in full — was his rather noncommittal stance on Garrett. The 29-year-old southpaw was one of the Reds’ best relievers from 2019-20, pitching to a 3.03 ERA with a 33.3% strikeout rate (albeit against a 13.3% walk rate).

Garrett, however, was clobbered for a 6.04 ERA this past season as his strikeout and walk rates went in the wrong direction. Projected for a $2.2MM salary in 2022, Garrett looked like a possible non-tender candidate in the first place, and Krall’s assessment that he’s “in our bullpen at this point” wasn’t exactly an emphatic vote of confidence. The GM did go on to eventually call Garrett a “quality member of the bullpen that should be able to help,” but between his struggles and projected salary, Garrett doesn’t feel like a lock to return.

Lower-cost paths to improving the depth — Krall specifically mentioned waiver claims — seem a likely path for the Reds moving forward. It’s certainly possible they’ll add a veteran reliever on a big league deal if the asking price isn’t too lofty, and any additional trades could bring back some MLB-ready bullpen help as part of the return. At the very least, the Reds seem likely to bring in a couple of new arms to compete for bullpen jobs, but Krall’s offseason comments and actions to date don’t portend significant spending.

Brewers Sign Three To Minor League Deals

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The Brewers have signed outfielder Jonathan Davis and right-handers Trevor Kelley and Jason Alexander to minor league contracts with invitations to Major League Spring Training, tweets Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.

Davis, 29, has spent parts of four years in the big leagues — all with the Blue Jays except for a brief 12-game stint with the Yankees late in the 2021 season. He’s never received regular playing time in the big leagues, as evidenced by the fact that last year’s 64 games played and 103 plate appearances were both career-high marks. Davis, often used as a late-inning pinch runner and defensive replacement by the Jays over the years, is 11-for-13 in stolen bases attempts at the MLB level but just a .171/.272/.248 hitter in 259 plate appearances. He’s been better in Triple-A, where he’s a .249/.356/.416 hitter in 640 trips to the plate.

The 28-year-old Kelley also comes to the Brewers organization with some big league experience, albeit a good bit less. He tallied 11 2/3 innings between the Red Sox and Phillies in 2019-20 but was tattooed for a dozen runs on 17 hits (four homers) and six walks with 11 punchouts. It’s not a great big league track record, but Kelley also posted a microscopic 1.52 ERA in 41 1/3 frames with the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate last season and carries a lifetime 1.66 ERA in 130 innings at that level. Kelley has fanned 24.8% of his opponents in Triple-A and posted a 9.1% walk rate.

Alexander joins the Brewers after parts of four pro seasons split between the Angels and Marlins organizations. An undrafted free agent out of Cal State Long Beach, the now-28-year-old righty has a pedestrian 4.87 ERA in 281 minor league innings but much more encouraging rate stats. While Alexander’s 20.6% strikeout rate is below average, he’s walked only 6.1% of his career opponents and tallied a huge 56.2% ground-ball rate since turning pro. Alexander didn’t pitch much with the Marlins organization last year, but in 19 2/3 frames across three levels (including 14 2/3 innings in Triple-A), he logged a 1.37 ERA with a 22-to-3 K/BB ratio and an enormous 67.3% grounder rate.

Astros To Re-Sign Justin Verlander

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The Astros have kicked off their offseason with a bold strike, agreeing to re-sign ace Justin Verlander. It’s reportedly a two-year, $50MM guarantee that contains even $25MM salaries over the next two seasons and allows Verlander to opt out after 2022.

The sides came to terms less than an hour after the ISE Baseball client had rejected the team’s one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer. That proved to be a wise decision, as Verlander will handily top that salary next season and pick up some financial security in the form of his 2023 player option.

Verlander has only made one appearance in the past two years because of an elbow injury that required a September 2020 Tommy John surgery. When last we saw him at full strength, the 2011 AL MVP was as good as ever. He tossed 223 innings of 2.58 ERA ball in 2019, winning his second career Cy Young award and helping lead Houston to a pennant.

That kind of top-of-the-rotation production is nothing new for Verlander, an eight-time All-Star and future Hall of Famer. He’d posted a 2.52 ERA across 214 frames the year prior, and he has an incredible nine seasons of 200+ innings with an ERA below 3.50 on his resume. Simply put, few pitchers can match the combination of workload and productivity Verlander has put together year in and year out for the bulk of his career.

Of course, there’s real risk Verlander doesn’t regain his peak form coming off two lost seasons. He’ll turn 39 years old in February, so there’d be fairly significant downside even if he weren’t coming off a major arm procedure. The ceiling when investing in a player of this caliber is immense, though, a fact that’s reflected in the seemingly robust interest he generated during his brief stay on the open market. Not only were a few of the game’s top spenders rumored to be involved, Verlander’s deal fairly handily tops the two-year, $40MM figure MLBTR projected entering the offseason — particularly once one factors in the player-friendly opt-out provision.

The Astros determined that to be a risk worth taking, a justifiable stance given that they’re squarely amidst a win-now window. Even facing Verlander’s potential departure, starting pitching wasn’t exactly a need. Despite Verlander missing all of 2021, the Astros’ starting staff ranked fifth in ERA (3.60), albeit with middle-of-the-road strikeout and walk numbers. Zack Greinke looks likely to sign elsewhere this offseason, and the team could look into trades involving Jake Odorizzi. Even still, Houston would bring back Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, Luis García, José Urquidy and Cristian Javier — one of the stronger rotation cores around the league.

A healthy Verlander is the kind of player teams will find room for even in the absence of an ostensible positional need though. Not only should he help the team manage the workloads of the younger arms, the front office is no doubt envisioning the possibility of rolling him back out as a Game One playoff starter. They’re as familiar as anyone regarding Verlander’s recovery process, current form, and work habits. They clearly feel strongly about his ability to bounce back.

In doing so, the Astros will indirectly forfeit a draft pick. While they won’t be stripped of a pick for signing one of their incumbent free agents, they’ll lose the right to collect a compensatory pick in the 70-75 overall range — which they would’ve received had Verlander signed elsewhere after rejecting Houston’s qualifying offer. That’s a small price to pay, even for a team whose farm system has been hit hard by the punishment from the 2017 sign-stealing scandal, given their current competitive window.

The Astros would stand to add a compensation pick in the event Carlos Correa departs. Like Verlander, Correa also rejected a QO, and the star shortstop is in position for a mega-deal as the top player on the market. The Astros’ previous efforts to re-sign Correa haven’t come particularly close to getting anything done, and Verlander’s return would seem to make the chances of Correa coming back even more remote.

Houston’s 2022 commitments now sit around $162MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s after accounting for estimated salaries for arbitration-eligible players but before considering the possibility of a Correa contract. Signing Correa would no doubt push the 2022 tab well above this past season’s $188MM franchise-record player expenditure (via Cot’s Baseball Contracts). Houston was prepared to enter the 2020 season with a payroll above $200MM before the pandemic necessitated a shortened season with prorated salaries. If owner Jim Crane is willing to go to that level again, then there might be room in the budget for a more earnest Correa pursuit, but it remains to be seen if that kind of spending is on the table.

Regardless of where the Astros go from here, re-signing Verlander serves as a reminder that Correa’s free agency doesn’t mark the end of the club’s competitive window. In addition to a rotation that has as much upside as any in the league, the Astros will roll into 2022 with a lineup that includes Alex Bregman, José Altuve, Yordan Álvarez, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker. They’ll look to hold off the Mariners, Angels and Rangers — all of whom have already been or are expected to be very aggressive this offseason — at the top of the AL West. The A’s look likelier to go in the opposite direction, but Oakland’s current core has been strong enough to compete over the past couple seasons, and it remains to be seen whether they’ll tear the roster down to its studs. All in all, it should be one of the game’s more entertaining and competitive divisions in 2022.

The Verlander signing also paints a picture of what has been a strong rotation market in the early going. The Angels took a similar short-term, high-salary upside flier on Noah Syndergaard yesterday — one day after the Tigers went to five years with an opt-out to land Eduardo Rodríguez. Teams like the Angels, Braves, Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox and White Sox were all linked to Verlander in recent days, and it stands to reason those clubs remain motivated to add rotation upside via free agency or trade. Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, Robbie Ray, Marcus Stroman and Carlos Rodón are among the numerous starting pitchers still on the free agent market who have recently posted top-of-the-rotation type of production.

Ben Verlander of Fox Sports first reported Justin Verlander’s agreement with the Astros. Mark Berman of Fox 26 reported that Verlander’s 2022 salary would be $25MM and reported the presence of the 2023 player option. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported that the option was also valued at $25MM.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien

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The deadline for players issued qualifying offers to decide on whether or not to accept has now passed, with Brandon Belt of the Giants being the only one out of the group of 14 to accept and return to his previous team. That means the 13 players who turned down the $18.4MM offer are now attached to draft pick forfeiture, including Carlos Correa. Of course, a player of Correa’s skill level won’t see his market greatly affected by a detail like that. In fact, MLBTR recently placed the star shortstop at the top of this year’s list of free agents and projected that he would land a contract of $320MM over ten years, despite the qualifying offer.

Another thing that apparently won’t stand in his way is any lingering resentment out of the Yankee organization in regard to the 2017 Astros sign-stealing scandal. It has been speculated by some people that the Yankees may not want to make a high profile acquisition of Correa, given he was a member of that now-infamous team, which defeated the Yankees in the ALCS before going on to beat the Dodgers in the World Series. But the Yankees decision makers have made comments that seem to suggest it won’t be an issue for them.

When asked if the scandal would play a role in how the team views Correa, Boone said “No,” per Dan Martin of the New York Post, but did acknowledge that the players would have to feel the same way. “Anytime we’re involved in a free agent that’s of large significance and will attract a lot of years and dollars, we’re all gonna feel really good about it.” The article also relays a statement general manager Brian Cashman made last week, saying, “Things like [fan or player sentiment are] not part of that process.”

Hal Steinbrenner evidently feels similar, as Jeff Passan of ESPN relays a quote from the team’s managing partner. “I think most people have moved on from that,” he said. “I mean, I think it’s only healthy to move on from things like that instead of stewing on it year after year. But, you know, people have the opinion that they want to have about that particular player. But, in general, we’re going to look at every single option. It’s the same thing we do every year.”

That’s surely good news for Correa, as he and his representatives will want as many teams in the bidding as possible, especially historically big spenders such as the Yankees. The club is certainly a fit for a shortstop, since moving Gleyber Torres to second base in September. However, they may opt not to make a long commitment to Correa, or any of the other highly-touted free agent shortstops, on account of prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe. “No question that factors in because we do feel in Peraza and Volpe we do have two long-time impact big-league players,’’ said Boone. “We’re excited about those players and believe they are real. That factors into any decisions the organization and [Cashman] make.”

Volpe is generally regarded above Peraza by prospect evaluators, as he is ranked the 18th prospect in all of baseball by FanGraphs, 22nd by Baseball America and 15th by MLB Pipeline, whereas Pereza comes in 48th for FanGraphs and 58th for both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. However, Volpe has only climbed as far as High-A in the Yankees’ system, meaning he’s unlikely to be an option for the big league club in the short term. Peraza, on the other hand, played most of 2021 at Double-A and finished the season with eight games at Triple-A, making it at least feasible that the club decides to forego a big expenditure at the position, although it’s also possible that’s just posturing for negotiating purposes.

Elsewhere around the league, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times doesn’t see the Mariners as a fit for Correa, based on the contract length. He reports that it’s believed Correa is trying to get within range of Francisco Lindor’s $341MM ten-year extension or “at least an 8- to 9-year deal with an average of $30 million per season and an opt-out clause.” Divish opines that Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto may not want to sign a contract of quite that length, based on his personal experiences trying to work around contracts like that, citing the Albert Pujols contract from Dipoto’s time in Anaheim as well as the Robinson Cano contract that was already on the books when he came to Seattle.

Marcus Semien, however, could be a better fit for the Mariners. He’s almost exactly four years older than Correa – 31 and 27, respectively – meaning he won’t be able to demand a contract of quite the same length. MLBTR predicted he could garner a contract of $138MM over six years, an average annual value of $23MM. But Divish has a different framing on the situation, saying, “The thinking is that the Mariners might have to offer him a five-year, $140-$150 million contract to keep him from going to San Francisco or New York on a four-year deal.”

$150MM over five years would be $30MM per season and make Semien one of the highest-paid players in the game by average annual value, which would be an incredible feat considering that he had to settle for a one-year, $18MM contract with the Blue Jays when he was a free agent a year ago. Like Correa, he also turned down a qualifying offer this week and will now be tied to draft pick forfeiture.

Robbie Ray, Corbin Burnes Win Cy Young Awards

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The Baseball Writers Association of America revealed the results of Cy Young award balloting this evening. Robbie Ray of the Blue Jays (now a free agent) and Corbin Burnes of the Brewers were named the American League and National League winners, respectively.

Ray claimed the AL award in resounding fashion, an achievement made all the more remarkable by his 2020 struggles. The southpaw dealt with significant control problems during the shortened campaign, leading the D-Backs to trade him to Toronto for essentially no return. After the end of the year, the Jays jumped the market to bring Ray back, buying low on the talented hurler with a one-year, $8MM pact.

That move will go down as one of the best of general manager Ross Atkins’ tenure in Toronto. Not only did Ray get back to heights that saw him make an All-Star team and garner some Cy Young support in 2017, he posted the best showing of his eight-year career. Ray worked 193 1/3 innings of 2.84 ERA ball, striking out an elite 32.1% of batters faced. That swing-and-miss stuff was nothing new, but the 29-year-old also cut his walk rate by almost two thirds. Just one year after walking 17.9% of opponents, Ray doled out free passes at just a 6.9% clip in 2021.

64 American League pitchers tallied 100+ innings this past season. Among that group, Ray ranked 3rd in ERA, strikeout percentage, strikeout/walk rate differential (25.2 percentage points) and SIERA (3.22). He led all AL hurlers in both innings pitched and swinging strike rate (15.5%). That stellar showing earns Ray his first Cy Young award and positions him as one of the top pitchers on this offseason’s free agent market.

As mentioned, the voting tilted quite strongly in Ray’s favor. He appeared on all 30 ballots, receiving 29 first-place votes and one second-place tally. The Yankees’ Gerrit Cole (who received the lone first-place nod that didn’t go to Ray) was the clear second-place finisher, with Lance Lynn of the White Sox coming in third. Nathan Eovaldi, Carlos Rodón, Frankie Montas, Lance McCullers Jr., Liam Hendriks, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Lucas Giolito and Raisel Iglesias also received down ballot support.

Voting in the National League was far more contentious, with very little separation between Burnes and the Phillies’ Zack Wheeler at the top. Both players received twelve first-place votes and appeared on all 30 ballots in some capacity, but Burnes’ 14-9 edge in second-place finishes wound up making the difference. The other six first-place votes went to eventual third-place finisher Max Scherzer, who split the season between the Nationals and Dodgers.

To some extent, the battle between Burnes and Wheeler came down to weighing volume versus rate effectiveness. Wheeler tossed an MLB-best 213 1/3 innings, while Burnes worked 167 frames. That’s a rather significant nod in Wheeler’s favor, but Burnes’ per-inning accomplishments were incredible. The Milwaukee righty ranked second among the 62 NL hurlers with 100+ innings in ERA (2.43) while pacing the league in SIERA (2.61), strikeout percentage (35.6%), strikeout/walk rate differential (30.4 percentage points) and swinging strike rate (16.6%).

That’s not to imply Wheeler was ineffective. The Phils’ righty was among the top ten in the league in most rate categories as well. But voters ultimately gave an ever so slight edge to Burnes’ utter domination of opponents, even if that came with a lighter workload than the one Wheeler shouldered.

Like Ray, Burnes takes home his first Cy Young award. He’d finished sixth in last year’s balloting and now looks like one of the game’s top handful of hurlers moving forward. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Brewers, who control Burnes via arbitration through the end of 2024, try to open extension talks with his representatives at CAA Sports over this offseason.

In addition to the three finalists, Walker Buehler, Brandon Woodruff, Kevin Gausman, Adam Wainwright, Julio Urías and Jacob deGrom picked up some down ballot support. Buehler was the only non-finalist to garner any second-place votes, with two runner-up nods.

See full balloting results.

Images courtesy of USA TODAY Sports.

Cleveland Guardians Name To Become Official On Friday

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The Cleveland Indians will officially become the Guardians starting on Friday, November 19, according to a press release from the team. Per the announcement, the team store at Progressive Field will open that morning with all the gear featuring the new moniker and logo. The change will also be reflected in the digital realm, as their website and social media handles will also be altered to usher in the new era for the franchise.

The club announced in July of 2020 that a name change was under consideration. Then the franchise finally announced in December of 2020 that a name change was forthcoming. In July of this year, it was revealed that the Indians would become the Cleveland Guardians after the 2021 campaign.  The club had been known as the Indians for more than 100 years.

This follows similar name changes for other sports teams, both amateur and professional. Many high school and college teams throughout North America have pivoted away from similar iconography in recent years, which was followed by decisions from pro sports franchises such as the NFL franchise now known as the Washington Football Team.

Latest On Seiya Suzuki

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Nov. 17: Suzuki is going to be posted next week, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. That would give him approximately one week to negotiate with MLB teams before the CBA expires on December 1.

Nov. 16: It had already been reported that the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball were planning on posting outfielder Seiya Suzuki for Major League teams this winter, and now the team has confirmed those reports. After the team made the announcement earlier today, Suzuki spoke to the media about his planned transition, as relayed by Nikkan Sports and Yahoo Japan. (Both links in Japanese.)

Although the club confirmed that Suzuki will soon be posted, it doesn’t seem as though the posting has been made official just yet. This is potentially an important detail because once the posting is made official, it starts a 30-day window for MLB teams to negotiate with Suzuki and his representatives. If that clock runs out without Suzuki having signed an MLB deal, he will return to the Carp.

This year, that has the potential to coincide with the December 1 expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, which could reportedly lead to a transaction freeze. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic addressed this issue, reporting that “MLB and NPB were close to an agreement in which that clock would be stopped in the event of an industry lockout.” The wording is vague there, making it unclear if the agreement is actually in place or not, but that would be another noteworthy detail in this saga. Hypothetically, even if Suzuki were posted tomorrow, just two weeks would transpire before December 1 and the expiring of the CBA. If a transaction freeze were then implemented, Suzuki’s 30-day clock would be paused, leaving him with more than two weeks of negotiating time after a new CBA is implemented and transactions are resumed. Of course, all of that is contingent on that MLB-NPB agreement having been finalized.

Suzuki, 27, has been one of the best players in NPB in recent years and figures to have a robust market once the posting is made official. MLBTR recently ranked him 20th on the annual list of top free agents, noting that he has the potential to be a middle-of-the-order bat with competent defense, and projecting he could land a contract of $55MM over five years. Since rumors of his posting emerged, he’s already been connected to the Giants, Rangers and Red Sox. Any big league team that signs Suzuki would owe the Carp a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. For example, if Suzuki were signed for $55MM as MLBTR predicted, the signing team would have to pay the Carp $10.125MM, bringing the total bill to $65.125MM.

Final Qualifying Offer Decisions

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Giants first baseman Brandon Belt was the only one of the fourteen players tagged with the one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer this offseason to accept the deal, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). That means players like Justin Verlander, Freddie Freeman and Robbie Ray have all declined the offers, as had been anticipated.

Verlander was the only one of the aforementioned trio who ever looked like a realistic possibility to accept the QO, as he’s coming off a season lost to Tommy John surgery recovery and turns 39 years old in February. Astros owner Jim Crane told reporters last month that Verlander was looking for a contract “of some length,” though. He and his representatives found that multi-year pact on the open market, as Verlander quickly re-signed with Houston on a two-year guarantee with an opt-out possibility after 2022.

Freeman and Ray, meanwhile, made the very easy call to turn the QO. They’re among the top handful of players in this year’s class, with each likely to land a five or six-year deal that pushes well north of $100MM. There was no incentive for either player to entertain the possibility of taking a QO, since declining has no impact on their ability to continue to negotiate a longer-term arrangement with their incumbent clubs, as Verlander did with the Astros.

Here’s a full rundown of the players who rejected the qualifying offer (all other decisions had been previously reported):

Brandon Belt Accepts Qualifying Offer With Giants

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Brandon Belt is staying in San Francisco, as the MLB Players Association announced this evening that he has chosen to accept the Giants’ qualifying offer. He’ll play next season on an $18.4MM salary.

Belt has spent his entire career in black and orange, first joining the organization when they selected him in the 2009 draft. The left-handed hitter was in the big leagues by 2011, and he’s spent the past decade as the Giants’ primary first baseman. He signed a long-term extension in April 2016 to guarantee he’d spend at least his first eleven major league seasons in the Bay Area, and he’s now set to return for a twelfth.

This offseason would’ve been presented Belt with his first opportunity to test free agency. After ten days for he and his representatives at Excel Sports Management to explore the market, he’s decided to forego that possibility. Instead, he’ll return to a franchise and city with which he’s clearly comfortable on a strong one-year pact. The current collective bargaining agreement prohibits teams from tagging a player with a QO more than once in his career. Assuming no changes to that provision in the next CBA, Belt is on track to hit free agency next winter without draft pick compensation attached.

That’d only be necessary, of course, if Belt and the Giants don’t agree on another long-term deal within the next twelve months. Players and teams are free to negotiate an extension even after a player accepts the QO. That’s not common, but it’s also not unheard of. Over the 2019-20 offseason, the White Sox and José Abreu lined up on a three-year deal just eight days after Abreu had accepted Chicago’s qualifying offer. Belt’s reps have recently discussed the possibility of a multi-year pact, and today’s development wouldn’t foreclose them continuing to do so.

Regardless of whether a long-term deal gets done, the Giants are surely thrilled to welcome Belt back in 2022. Not only is he a respected member of the organization, he’s coming off perhaps the best two-year stretch of his career. Going back to the start of 2020, the 33-year-old owns a .285/.393/.595 line with 38 home runs across 560 trips to the plate. Among those with 500+ plate appearances, only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper have topped Belt’s offensive output, by measure of wRC+.

As he has throughout his career, Belt has backed up that bottom line production with elite batted ball metrics. He’s been in the top six percent of the league in each of the past two seasons in Statcast’s barrel rate — essentially how often he makes hard contact at the optimal angle for extra-base impact. His overall hard contact rate and average exit velocity are also above par. And Belt gets to that authoritative contact without selling out for power. His 24.8% strikeout rate over the past two seasons is only a tick higher than the league average, while he’s drawn walks in a fantastic 13.9% of his appearances in the batter’s box.

While there’s little question about Belt’s status as an impact middle-of-the-order presence, his profile isn’t without red flags. Because he signed a mid-career extension, his first trip to the open market was set to come in advance of his age-34 campaign. Teams have become increasingly reluctant to dole out lofty multi-year deals for players through their mid-30’s, and that’s especially true of defensively-limited boppers. And while Belt has been great when healthy, he’s also been dinged up fairly frequently throughout his career.

Since emerging as a regular in 2012, Belt has only topped 500 plate appearances in four seasons. He’s dealt with repeated concussion issues in the past, and he’s gone on the injured list four times within the last two years alone. None of those issues resulted in long-term absences during the season, but Belt underwent right heel surgery last offseason and wasn’t able to partake in the Giants’ NL Division Series in 2021 after fracturing his left thumb on a hit-by-pitch in late September.

Between his age, position and injury history, Belt apparently wasn’t generating such interest over the past ten days that he felt compelled to pass up on a strong one-year offer. He’ll return to the middle of the order on a Giants team that’ll enter the season with astronomical expectations after winning a franchise-record 107 games. He’ll be joined by fellow franchise mainstay Brandon Crawford, but the club will have their work cut out for them in replacing the production and presence of Buster Posey, after the likely future Hall of Famer announced his retirement two weeks ago.

Belt’s return adds $18.4MM to the 2022 books, but that’s well within their range of comfortability. The front office was content with the possibility of Belt returning at that price when they made the QO, with good reason. Even after factoring in Belt’s return, San Francisco has just $97MM in estimated commitments, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s well shy of the franchise’s $200MM heights, leaving plenty of room for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and his staff to add to a roster that’s facing the potential departure of four-fifths of its 2021 starting rotation.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the news.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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