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Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

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After earning a third straight playoff berth, the Athletics are in for an offseason of change. Longtime front office head Billy Beane might be on his way out after two-plus decades of success, while the roster could lose a handful of key free agents.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

The A’s have never been known as a high-spending team, but this offseason could be especially difficult in the wake of a pandemic-shortened year. The timing is terrible for an Oakland club that’s loaded with noteworthy free agents, including in its middle infield. Marcus Semien has been the A’s primary shortstop since 2015, while they acquired second baseman Tommy La Stella from the division-rival Angels before the Aug. 31 trade deadline. La Stella made a wonderful impression on the organization during his short time there, but whether the team will make a serious effort to re-sign him is unknown.

With Semien and La Stella potentially on the way out, there’s no greater need for the A’s than in their middle infield. They already opted against giving Semien a one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer off a somewhat disappointing season, leaving him unfettered heading into free agency. The A’s have made it clear that they hope to retain Semien, but it’s hard to imagine them outbidding the rest of the field. If Semien exits, where would that leave Oakland? The club could plug in Chad Pinder, but he has minimal major league experience at shortstop, and it isn’t likely to spend enough to sign Didi Gregorius or Andrelton Simmons in free agency. Similarly, a trade for Francisco Lindor or Trevor Story looks improbable. They might be a suitor for Korea’s Ha-Seong Kim, a 24-year-old who’s a candidate for a reasonably priced contract over the long haul. Otherwise, the A’s may be looking at someone like Freddy Galvis, who would only be a Band-Aid at the position.

The A’s love La Stella at the keystone. Again, though, are they going to spend to sign him? La Stella shouldn’t cost that much (something in the two-year, $14MM range sounds realistic). But if the A’s don’t retain La Stella, they’ll have some other options in free agency, including Galvis, Kolten Wong, Jonathan Schoop, Jason Kipnis, Cesar Hernandez and Marwin Gonzalez. That isn’t the most exciting bunch, but most or all of them should be within the A’s price range, and at least some look like passable starters. Of course, the A’s do have Tony Kemp, Vimael Machin and Sheldon Neuse in the fold if they decide to stick with options who are already under team control.

Aside from potentially the middle infield, the A’s don’t seem as if they’ll be all that busy on the position player front this offseason. The Matts (third baseman Chapman and first baseman Olson) have their spots locked up, as do catcher Sean Murphy and designated hitter Khris Davis. The outfield could lose Robbie Grossman to free agency, but Ramon Laureano, Mark Canha, Stephen Piscotty and Seth Brown are still in place.

Turning to the pitching side, Oakland is going to have to make moves, as it may see a few veteran hurlers depart. The rotation could say goodbye to free agents Mike Fiers and Mike Minor, though four-fifths of it does look set with Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea, Jesus Luzardo and Frankie Montas staying in the mix. That still leaves one open spot, which could go to prized prospect A.J. Puk if he battles back from a couple years of arm problems (including left shoulder surgery in September). Otherwise, Daulton Jefferies and James Kaprielian may be the A’s most realistic picks from within the organization.

Fortunately for Oakland, if it decides to search for a starter from outside, it will have several affordable choices. Free agency is loaded with veterans who should sign short-term deals, including Fiers, Minor, Cole Hamels, Mike Leake, and ex-Athletics Rich Hill, Jon Lester and Brett Anderson. It’s a long list that extends well beyond those names. On the trade front, Lance Lynn (Rangers) and Joe Musgrove (Pirates) are among possibilities the A’s could fit in from a financial standpoint.

While most spots in the A’s rotation are spoken for, the bullpen is facing a great deal of uncertainty at the outset of the offseason. Closer Liam Hendriks was one of the premier relievers in the league from 2019-20, but he’s a free agent. Oakland didn’t issue him a qualifying offer, so he figures to walk away without the team getting any compensation. Yusmeiro Petit, Joakim Soria and T.J. McFarland are alongside Hendriks on the open market. That quartet gave Oakland 90 innings in 2020, and the only member who recorded below-average numbers was McFarland. It’s going to be tough to replace that group, though an A’s bullpen that was elite this past season still has some strong holdovers in Jake Diekman, J.B. Wendelken, Lou Trivino, Jordan Weems and Burch Smith (if Smith recovers from a flexor strain). It’s also not out of the realm of possibility they’ll re-sign any of Petit, Soria or McFarland, who aren’t going to command big deals on the open market, or add at least one of the many available relievers in free agency. Even Puk could slide into a prominent bullpen role next year if he’s healthy and doesn’t secure a rotation spot.

This isn’t going to be the most thrilling offseason for the A’s, whose front office and roster could combine to lose a few important figures. The A’s have consistently been in the hunt in recent years despite their small budget, though, and there is still quite a bit of talent on hand for the reigning AL West champions. However, Beane (if he doesn’t go elsewhere) and general manager David Forst may have to pull off some shrewd moves in the coming months to keep Oakland at the head of its division in 2021.

Seeking Development Help For Contest Leaderboard

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We’ll be taking reader submissions beginning Monday for our MLB Free Agent Prediction Contest.  Once all the entries are in, we like to put up a leaderboard on the site, which gets updated as players sign with teams.

I’m seeking someone to build a leaderboard from scratch, very similar to this one from last year.  On the backend, I’ll need a place to list the 50 contest free agents, update with the correct teams after each one signs, and import around 7,000 contest entries from Google Forms.  The front end will look and function exactly like this.

If you’re interested in tackling this paid project, please send an email to mlbtrhelp@gmail.com explaining your qualifications.

Giants Sign Jason Vosler To Major League Deal

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The Giants agreed to terms with third baseman Jason Vosler on a Major League contract, the team announced. Their 40-man roster now has two open spots.

Vosler spent most of his development years in the Cubs’ farm system after they selected him in the 16th round of the 2014 draft. He spent 2019 with the Padres’ Triple-A affiliate. He joined the Friars in a low-key, but notable deal in November of 2018. The Cubs sent Vosler to San Diego for reliever Rowan Wick, who since became one of the Cubs more reliable bullpen arms. At the time, the 24-year-old Vosler was the Cubs’ #25 prospect per Baseball America, while Wick was a 26-year-old converted catcher with 10 Major League appearances to his name.

The Athletic’s resident soothsayer Grant Brisbee included Vosler among his list of minor league free agents that the Giants might target in his article yesterday. Brisbee wrote that Vosler “hit .291/.367/.523 in 2019 for the El Paso Chihuahuas, which isn’t that impressive for the Pacific Coast League. But that was the third year in a row that he hit at least 20 home runs, which isn’t something that you can say about most minor-league free agents. He’s a lefty bat whose primary position is third base, though he’s also spent time at second and first. In a minor-league free-agent class that’s lacking in power, this is one of the only good options.”

The Padres had no room for Vosler with an infield stocked by regulars Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth, and Eric Hosmer. The Giants can use Vosler to spell Evan Longoria or Donovan Solano against certain right-handers. The Giants ran a right-heavy bench last season, giving Vosler a clear path to a role with the big league club in 2021, depending on other transactions.

Vosler has yet to make his big league debut, though he did join the Padres 60-man player pool last August.

Don Mattingly, Kevin Cash Win Manager Of The Year Awards

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Florida was privileged to see some first-rate managing this season. Don Mattingly of the Marlins and Kevin Cash of the Rays have been named the Manager of the Year in their respective leagues, per the BBWAA NL and AL announcements. The ballots for the 30 participating writers in each league can be seen in full on the announcements page.

Mattingly becomes just the fifth manager to win the award after having won an MVP award as a player, which Mattingly won with the Yankees in 1985. The Marlins’ skipper finished with 20 of 30 first-place votes and 8 second-place votes. He was left off two ballots. He finished with 124 total points, well ahead of the Padres’ Jayce Tingler, who finished second for the award with 71 votes. David Ross of the Cubs finished third with 25 votes. Ross and Tingler each head into just their second years on the bench, while Mattingly will be entering his 6th season as the manager of the Marlins next season.

The award comes in the same season that his former club, the Los Angeles Dodgers, won their first World Series of this century. Mattingly managed Los Angeles from 2011 until 2015, finishing in first place for the final three seasons of his tenure there, which began the Dodgers’ current stretch of 8 consecutive division titles.

This season, Mattingly helped the Marlins to a 31-29 wild card run that ended their playoff drought at 16 years. The Fish enjoyed quite the turnaround after suffering 98 and 105 losses in the two seasons prior. Perhaps a more telling harbinger of the hardware that would be coming Mattingly’s way was the way his club battled throughout the postseason. They swept the NL Central champion Cubs in a three-game series before being swept themselves in a 3-game series by the division rival Braves. The Marlins were without star centerfielder Starling Marte for their NLDS series.

In the American League, Kevin Cash wins a new trophy for his mantle after leading the Tampa Bay Rays to the World Series. He received 22 first-place votes, 5 second-place, and 1 third-place vote to finish with a total of 126 points. He was left off two ballots. Rick Renteria – who has been dismissed by the White Sox – finishes in second place with 61 points. Charlie Montoyo of the Blue Jays finishes in third place with 47 votes. This is Cash’s first time winning the award.

Cash has taken his lumps of late for pulling Blake Snell in Game 6 of the World Series, but he’s more than deserving of this award. He led the small-market Rays to a 40-20 record, the best mark in the American League. They swept the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Round before heading to a decision final game in each of the next two series. They outlasted the Yankees in the divisional round and the Astros in the ALCS to win the pennant. It was just the second time in Tampa’s history making it to the World Series.

Mets President Sandy Alderson On Team Needs

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During Steve Cohen’s introductory press conference with the Mets, team president Sandy Alderson took questions from reporters and said a number of interesting things about the direction of the Mets.

The Mets finished in 4th place in three of the last four years, and they haven’t made the playoffs since 2016 when they lost a one-game playoff. The Mets made some win-now moves in recent years that raised expectations, but they’ve been unable to get over the hump. That said, Alderson likes the way the team has drafted, and he sees some pieces to build around, saying, “From an offensive standpoint, there are definitely some first-division championship pieces.” Speculatively speaking, masher Pete Alonso falls into this category, despite a down sophomore season in 2020. Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano, and Dominic Smith put up strong seasons in 2020 as well. Smith, in particular, will be interesting to follow, because if there isn’t a DH in 2021, he may be out of a starting job.

On the pitching said, Alderson said, “Jacob deGrom is by definition an ace. He’s the definition of of Cy Young, if you will.” deGrom has been the face of the Mets for the past four seasons or so, over which time he won consecutive Cy Young awards, and he’s up for a third in a row this year.

He needs help in the rotation, however, especially with Noah Syndergaard on the mend and Marcus Stroman a free agent. On WFAN later in the day, Alderson fanned some rumor flames by speaking positively about free agent Trevor Bauer: “I actually think Bauer would be a great personality in New York. The kind of guy that fans would endorse. We’re in the entertainment business,” per New York baseball columnist John Harper (via Twitter). While Bauer would certainly fill a need in the organization, Alderson doesn’t go so far as to say he is a person of interest.

But there’s no denying the Mets as a fourth place team. Thus, Alderson covered some of their needs moving into the offseason, saying, “…There are things that we don’t do well. we need to shore up some positions. Our pitching staff is thin. Our depth at Double-A and Triple-A is thin or thinner. The bullpen has been inconsistent. We have needs behind the plate.”

In terms of specific players, he mentioned Brad Hand as someone they would have been interested in claiming on waivers if the timing had been different, per Tim Britton of the Athletic (via Twitter). He noted that the one-year, $10MM deal for Hand might be an overpay, but that sometimes the acquisition is more important than the cost itself, which speaks to his philosophy of roster-building.

Alderson even took some “credit” for the team defense, which he spoke of as an area that needs improvement. During Anderson’s run as GM from 2010 to 2018, an emphasis was put on offense. Moving forward, however, Alderson recognizes the need to address the other side of the ball. Speculatively, that could mean being open to moving one of Smith, Nimmo, or Conforto to find a more defensive-minded centerfielder. They could also start their defensive revamp by focusing on that end with whomever they bring in behind the plate.

All in all, Alderson took a measured approach in discussing the Mets’ future, recognizing some of the failures of the team in recent years. Ultimately, he landed on the side of optimism, saying, “…There is a foundation there, and I think if we can add the right pieces this year – and Steve has indicated that we’ll have the opportunity to do that – we can be pretty good pretty quickly, and that’s my goal for 2021.”

Mets Owner Steve Cohen Holds Introductory Press Conference

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New Mets owner Steve Cohen held an introductory press conference via Zoom today along with team president Sandy Alderson. Cohen recently closed the deal to purchase the Mets for $2.475 billion dollars. Cohen touched on a number of different topics, including the baseball ops hierarchy, payroll, and his hopes for the franchise moving forward.

From a baseball perspective, Cohen spoke about relying on his baseball professionals to make baseball decisions. He brought in Sandy Alderson as team president because he knows the Mets and knows the game of baseball, and while Cohen will be in close conversation with Alderson, he expects to learn a good deal from Alderson on the baseball side. Together, they hopes to put together a perennial championship contender. Per Mike Puma of the New York Post:

“One team wins the World Series every year, so that’s a pretty high bar. But if I don’t win a World Series in the next three to five years – I would like to make it sooner – then obviously I would consider that slightly disappointing. I’m not in this to be mediocre. I want something great.”

As far as how they plan to accomplish that goal, Cohen said this, per MLB.com’s Matt Kelly:

“You build champions, you don’t buy them. We’ve got a great core on this team, and we’re going to get better and I plan to make the investments we need to succeed. We want to win now, but we’re also building for the long term.”

Cohen said all the right things today, much of it the canned baseball rhetoric that one might expect from a new owner. That said, he came across as genuine, eager to grow the franchise, and focused on the fan experience. He did speak to the possibilities for the Mets’ payroll under his leadership. Said Cohen, per Mike Puma of the New York Post:

“What I do believe is this is a major market team and it should have a budget commensurate with that.”

Cohen deferred when asked specifically about spending beyond the luxury tax, but reiterated his plan to spend, saying, per Britton (via Twitter):

“I can promise you we’re going to act like a major-market team. Are we going to act like drunken sailors? No.”

Cohen owns Point72 Asset Management, a hedge fund that he somewhat tongue-in-cheek referred to as his “day job.” If Cohen’s words are to be believed, his priority number one isn’t making money with the Mets, but to bring joy to a cadre of Mets fans that have been largely disappointed in recent years. From how it sounds, Cohen may eventually bring the Mets’ payroll up near the levels one might expect for a team in the New York market. The Mets’ payroll before 2020 was set to be around $160MM, some $40MM+ shy of the luxury tax line, per Cot’s Contracts.

Alderson has charge of baseball ops, but even he is a temporary head – at least in the grand scheme of things. Just as quickly as Cohen put the ball in Alderson’s court when it comes to baseball decisions, Alderson passed it along to his as-of-yet un-hired president of baseball ops, saying “I am not going to make the baseball decisions. I expect a seat at the table, but not the head of the table,” per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). Alderson clearly will help structure the baseball ops department and, along with Cohen, create the philosophy and culture for the new New York Mets. But there’s another key decision-maker yet to join the team. Alderson interviewed his first candidate for that role on Saturday, tweets the Athletic’s Tim Britton.

As for how long the 72-year-old Alderson will stay with the team, Tim Healey of Newsday provides this quote (via Twitter):

“I’ve committed to a couple of years, but it’s open-ended. … I don’t want to die with my boots on. I think this is going to be a great couple of years. We’ll see how it goes. That’s all I can say.”

The next domino to fall in the reshaping of the Mets will be the hiring of their head of baseball ops. Alderson said they’re looking for the “most accomplished baseball person we can find.” They are still putting together their list of interviewees and deciding how many people to bring in.  It’s unclear right now what the timeline is for that hire. As for the structure of the rest of baseball ops, that’s going to be decided once they bring in that hire.

Mac Williamson Sues Giants

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Former Giants outfielder Mac Williamson is suing the team over a 2018 incident that saw Williamson suffer an on-field concussion.  The lingering effects of that concussion “ended my career,” Williamson said, implying that he is done with the sport after eight professional seasons.

On April 24, 2018, Williamson was playing left field at Oracle Park (then known as AT&T Park) in a game between the Giants and Nationals.  While in pursuit of a Bryce Harper fly ball into foul territory in the fifth inning, Williamson tripped over the bullpen mounds set up in foul ground and fell into the wall.  He remained in the game until the ninth but didn’t appear in another game until May 25 after a stint on the concussion-related injured list.

In a Zoom news conference with Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle and other reporters today, Williamson gave a statement saying that the concussion “left me with lifelong injuries that have also taken a significant toll on my personal life.  I suffer nausea, trouble sleeping, mood swings, and other issues.  I wake up every day hoping that today is a better day and that I will get closer to how I felt before the injury.”

The on-field bullpen mounds were a part of Oracle Park since the stadium opened in 2000, but were moved off the field of play and behind the center field fence as part of renovations that took place prior to the 2020 season.

“Everybody’s career ends at some point. But to have it taken from me because the bullpen mounds were unnecessarily placed on the field is very hard to cope with,” Williamson said.  “Although I will never be made whole, my intent on filing the lawsuit is holding park owners accountable for not only taking away my career, but carelessly risking every other great player’s careers by needlessly placing the bullpen mounds on the field.”

A third-round pick for the Giants in the 2012 draft, Williamson was a well-regarded prospect on his way up the minor league ladder before making his MLB debut in 2015.  He hit only .228/.305/.406 in 200 plate appearances in 2016-17, though regular playing time was hard to find, and Williamson was frequently shuttled back and forth between the Giants’ roster and their Triple-A affiliate.  As Schulman noted, Williamson revamped his swing in the 2017-18 offseason and was enjoying a hot start in 2018 before the concussion.

Post-injury, Williamson played in only 23 more games that season for the Giants and then 36 more games at Triple-A before his year was cut short by injury in mid-August.  In 2019, Williamson appeared in 40 MLB games for the Giants and Mariners before heading to South Korea to play 40 games with the KBO League’s Samsung Lions.  He inked a minor league deal with the Nationals during the offseason but was released in May.

The Giants released a statement addressing the lawsuit, saying “MLB and its clubs have a longstanding practice of addressing claims arising from player injuries through the collectively-bargained grievance procedure and the worker’s compensation system.  Williamson’s claims are properly resolved through these processes, not through the courts.”

Blue Jays Interested In Andrelton Simmons

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The Blue Jays looked into acquiring Andrelton Simmons prior to the August 31 trade deadline, and now that the shortstop is a free agent, veteran reporter Bob Elliott tweets that Toronto is again interested in Simmons’ services.

Simmons ended up playing in only 30 games in 2020, as he spent time on the injured list with a sprained ankle and also opted out of the season on September 22.  Over the small sample size of 127 plate appearances, Simmons hit pretty well (.297/.346/.356, 99 wRC+ and 95 OPS+), and the Jays or any team would happily take that sort of league-average offense in combination with Simmons’ usual excellent defense.  It’s worth noting that 2020 was by far the worst defensive season of Simmons’ career, though it’s fair to assume that his bad ankle contributed to his -1 Outs Above Average, -2 Defensive Runs Saved and +4.0 UZR/150.

That said, Simmons was also bothered by ankle problems in 2019, and has played in only 133 of a possible 222 games over the last two seasons.  In ranking Simmons 17th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, MLBTR projected that the 31-year-old Simmons might have to take just a one-year contract this winter, as teams will be wary of making multi-year offers given his recent injury history and any potential questions about his glovework going forward.

A one-year deal would certainly seem to fit the Blue Jays’ plans, as the team still considers Bo Bichette to be its shortstop of the future but a short-term defensive upgrade is still very much a need.  Signing Simmons would indirectly fix the Jays’ need at third base, since Bichette or Cavan Biggio could play the hot corner while the other plays second base.  Simmons doesn’t have the offensive upside of other rumored Jays shortstop targets as Francisco Lindor or Didi Gregorius, but he might have the lowest price tag — Gregorius is surely looking for a multi-year contract after taking a one-year deal with the Phillies last winter, while the Jays would have to pay a hefty trade return to pry Lindor away from the Indians.

Stroman: “No Amount Of Money” Would Convince Him To Play For La Russa

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The White Sox’ decision to hire Tony La Russa as their new skipper was widely panned from the get-go, and last night’s revelation that the team knew he’d been charged with a second DUI prior to making the hire has only enhanced criticism. The La Russa hire, however, is now generating a negative reaction beyond fans and pundits.

After The Athletic’s Keith Law further criticized the White Sox last night on Twitter in light of the newest details, free-agent righty Marcus Stroman replied to call the decision “baffling on all measures.” Asked by a follower what type of contract it would take for Stroman to sign to play under La Russa, the pitcher replied: “No amount of money honestly. Peace of mind is always priority.”

Much has been made of whether La Russa will be able to connect with a younger generation of players, particularly in light of his vocal 2016 stance against Colin Kaepernick’s protests in the National Football League. La Russa seemed to double down on those comments earlier this year, fueling questions about how he’d be received by current White Sox players. Tim Anderson, who sits on the board of the Players Alliance, spoke of keeping an open mind but noted that although more than a week had elapsed since the hiring was announced, La Russa had yet to contact him.

The White Sox surely knew there’d be pushback against the initial La Russa decision — particularly considering they knew about the latest DUI that had yet to become public — but it’s unlikely they’d have anticipated such public rejection from a prominent free agent like Stroman. Still, Stroman didn’t mince his words, and it stands to reason that there are other free agents and other players who hold similar opinions (even if they don’t vocalize them).

A White Sox official told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale last night that La Russa would not lose his job and in fact wasn’t even in line to face any discipline from the organization, although Stroman’s comments only figure to place further pressure for some kind of action on owner Jerry Reinsdorf.

It’s become increasingly clear, after all, that the decision to hire La Russa came solely from Reinsdorf and was not well-received elsewhere in the organization. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this morning that Reinsdorf turned the “La Russa Express into a runaway train,” adding that White Sox executives were “unable to stop their owner from bringing his longtime friend back into the organization.”

Alderson: Luis Rojas “Very Likely” To Manage Mets In 2021

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Now that Steve Cohen has bought the Mets, many changes are expected to be in store (and some have already taken place) for the organization, though the turnover might not extend to the dugout.  During an introductory media event with Cohen and team president Sandy Alderson with MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and other reporters in a Zoom call, Alderson said that manager Luis Rojas was “very likely” to remain in his current role for the coming season.

Rojas was unexpectedly thrust into the manager’s job last January after the Mets and newly-hired manager Carlos Beltran parted ways due to controversy over Beltran’s role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.  Rojas was already on the Mets staff as the quality control coach and had previously interviewed for the managerial position before Beltran was hired.

It was Rojas’ first time as a Major League manager, and he could hardly have been thrust into a more chaotic situation given both the events of the 2020 season and all of the behind-the-scenes tumult with the Mets.  The club posted only a 26-34 record last year, though it is hard to tell how much (if any) Rojas can be faulted for the lack of results, considering the shortened season, multiple injuries to the pitching staff, and perhaps just an overall insufficient roster.

Clearly Alderson and Cohen agree that Rojas should be given a fuller opportunity to manage the team, but with one important caveat.  Alderson said he “left the door slightly ajar” for a managerial change if the team’s incoming new president of baseball operations would prefer to make his own hire.  Considering most executives indeed prefer to have their own personnel in place, this is no small detail about Rojas’ potential future, though the fact that Rojas wasn’t among the first wave of departures from the organization is a sign that Alderson and Cohen don’t feel a change is immediately necessary.

Alderson and Cohen are quite familiar with Rojas, whose long career as a coach and manager in the Mets’ minor league system predates both Cohen becoming a minority owner (in 2012) and Alderson being hired as the GM in 2010.  Rojas’ contract is only guaranteed through the 2021 season, though the Mets have club options on his services for at least 2022 and 2023.

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