Extension Candidate: Teoscar Hernandez
To some extent, Teoscar Hernandez has been a bit of an overlooked figure on the Blue Jays roster. He wasn’t part of the homegrown core of young talent, he isn’t exactly young himself since he turns 29 in October, and he wasn’t one of the major free agent signings that have played such key roles for the Jays in 2021 and (the team hopes) into the future. Hernandez did get a turn in the spotlight when he was voted into the American League’s starting All-Star lineup this past July, marking some overdue recognition of a player who has quietly been one of baseball’s best hitters over the last 26 months.
If “26 months” seems like something of an arbitrary timeline, it is because Hernandez has a pretty clear line of demarcation at almost the exact midpoint of his career. Prior to July 16, 2019, it wasn’t like Hernandez was a bad player, as he even hit 22 home runs for Toronto during the 2018 season. However, power was much pretty much all Hernandez had to offer over the first 971 plate appearances of his MLB career, as he swatted 42 home runs but batted only .231/.292/.447. This led to a 96 wRC+, and between that below-average offensive production and a very subpar outfield glove, there was some question about whether or not Hernandez could develop into anything more than a part-time player.
Needless to say, those questions have been answered. Hernandez hit a home run against the Red Sox in that July 16 game and then hit two more homers the next day, essentially heralding his arrival as a first-rate hitter. Over Hernandez’s last 916 plate appearances, he has hit 59 home runs and slashed .285/.343/.548 slash line. His 136 wRC+ since July 16, 2019 has been topped by only 12 qualified hitters in all of baseball, and he is also tied for eighth in slugging percentage in that timeframe.
Hernandez made some mechanical changes to his swing during a minor league demotion earlier in 2019, though there isn’t really a simple “lightbulb switched on” reason why Hernandez was suddenly much more productive. Looking at his numbers pre- and post-July 16, 2019, Hernandez’s walk rates have actually declined in the last 26 months, while his strikeout rates have gone from being almost league-worst to merely bad.
Hernandez always made plenty of hard contract, and with a .350 BABIP during the productive half of his career (and a .296 BABIP beforehand), there is some level of good fortune involved in Hernandez’s rise. That said, Hernandez has helped himself by making more contact in general and hitting more line drives, with his above-average baserunning allowing him to translate that hard contact into hits.
Turning to the defensive side, Hernandez has worked to become a respectable outfielder after struggling so badly in the field earlier in his career. Over 926 innings (707 in right field, 212 in left) this season, Hernandez has a +0.1 UZR/150 and +1 Outs Above Average, while the Defensive Runs Saved metric still gives him a -2 score. While a Gold Glove probably isn’t in Hernandez’s future, he has at least proven that he isn’t a DH-only player — which could prove important to his future earning potential.
Hernandez was arbitration-eligible for the first time this season, and avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $4.325MM salary. He’ll get a sizable raise coming this winter, and then another in the 2022-23 offseason before becoming eligible for free agency following the 2023 campaign. Should Hernandez keep up his level of offense next year, he should earn somewhere in the neighborhood of $17MM in 2022-23 before hitting the open market prior to his age-31 season.
That is, unless the Blue Jays keep him off the open market by working out a contract extension. With two-plus years remaining of control over Hernandez, the Jays aren’t in any immediate rush to make a decision one way or the other, and naturally quite a few other matters will need to be addressed in the interim. Re-signing impending free agents Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray seem to be a priority for the club, and one would imagine the Jays will make a hard push to extend Jose Berrios (a free agent after 2022) given how they surrendered such a notable prospect package to acquire him from the Twins at the trade deadline. Elsewhere on the extension front, Toronto might also look to land some long-term cost certainty over cornerstones Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, even though both are already controlled through the 2025 season.
In short, Hernandez might find himself somewhat overlooked again, if the Jays are content to go year-by-year. However, there is some logic in the team exploring a longer deal with the slugger right now. While the Blue Jays are one of the league’s best offensive teams, the lineup will take a big hit if Semien leaves, and the future depth has been a bit depleted — Cavan Biggio has struggled through an injury-plagued year, Rowdy Tellez was traded to the Brewers, and top prospect Austin Martin was dealt in the Berrios swap.
Speaking of the prospect ranks, the Toronto farm system has plenty of intriguing infielders and pitchers, but the Jays are short on young outfielders ready to make an impact at the big league level. While that could change in the two years before Hernandez hits free agency, the lack of young outfield depth was one reason the Jays felt compelled to sign George Springer this past offseason. There isn’t anyone immediately coming to push for Hernandez’s role, and in any case, Hernandez would seem to have a lot more job security than the much more inconsistent Randal Grichuk and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Grichuk is signed through 2023 but has provided below-average offense in Toronto, while Gurriel is controlled through 2024 but has been part of trade rumors in the past.
Only Hernandez himself (and maybe his agents at Republik Sports) would know the answer to this subject, but the outfielder also might be eager to lock in the first big payday of his professional career. Hernandez made more in 2021 than he did in the rest of his career combined, as he received only a $20K bonus when first signing with the Astros back in 2011. While $7MM+ in arb earnings is lined up for 2022, Hernandez might not want to run the risk of injury or a downturn in performance next season, so he could be open to a deal of fewer additional years, but maybe a higher average annual value in 2024 or 2025.
Grichuk’s four-year/$47MM deal in April 2019 is the only major multi-year extension of the Ross Atkins era, so there isn’t much of a hint about how this front office might approach a Hernandez extension, or if such a deal is even truly on their radar. The trade that brought Hernandez to Toronto is already one of the canniest moves of Atkins’ tenure as GM, and that trade will only look better if a deal can be worked out so Hernandez can continue to be a big part of the Blue Jays lineup for years to come.
Minor MLB Transactions: 9/7/21
The latest minor league moves from around the baseball world…
- The Twins outrighted Derek Law to Triple-A, after the right-hander cleared waivers. Law was designated for assignment earlier this week, and this is the second time he has been outrighted — Law had the option of choosing free agency after this second outright, though he opted to remain in the Minnesota organization. Law has a 4.20 ERA over 15 innings this season, spending much of the year at Triple-A St. Paul and also spending over a month on the injured list due to a right shoulder impingement. Best known for his three seasons in the Giants bullpen from 2016-18, Law is in his first season with the Twins after signing a minor league deal last winter.
COVID Notes: 9/7/21
The latest on coronavirus-related situations around baseball…
- The Tigers placed right-hander Joe Jimenez on the COVID-related injury list yesterday due to a positive test. First base coach George Lombard also tested positive, while pitching coach Chris Fetter, quality control coach Josh Paul and bullpen catcher Jeremy Carroll are away from the team due to contact tracing procedures. Jimenez and Lombard were fully vaccinated but are both experiencing symptoms, manager A.J. Hinch told The Detroit News’ Chris McCosky and other reporters. Jimenez has struggled to a 6.15 ERA over 41 innings out of the Tigers bullpen this season, largely due to control problems. After posting an 8.3% walk rate over his first four MLB seasons, Jimenez’s total has ballooned to 16.7% this season.
Braves Extend Charlie Morton
The Braves announced Monday that they’ve signed right-hander Charlie Morton to a one-year contract worth $20MM. (The Braves are one of the few teams who formally disclose the terms of their player contracts themselves.) The Jet Sports client also has a $20MM club option for the 2023 season that does not have a buyout.
Morton had somewhat of a slow start in his return to the Braves organization, pitching to a 5.08 ERA through his first eight starts of the season. He’s been lights-out ever since, however, working to a combined 2.95 ERA with a terrific 29.9 percent strikeout rate and a strong 7.4 percent walk rate over his past 20 starts — a total of 119 innings pitched. Overall, Morton has a 3.47 ERA in 158 frames with the Braves thus far in 2021.
This is the second go-around in Atlanta for Morton, whom the Braves selected with their third-round pick nearly two decades ago in 2002. He made his big league debut as a Brave in 2008 but was traded to the Pirates in the June 2009 swap that brought outfielder Nate McLouth to Atlanta. Morton would settle in as a mid-rotation starter in Pittsburgh, but a velocity spike in a very brief four-game stint with the Phillies — he missed the rest of the year with a torn hamstring — set the stage for him to land in Houston. With the Astros, Morton maintained that velocity bump and leaned more heavily into his four-seamer and curveball, at the expense of his sinker.
Morton broke out as one of the game’s best starters with the Astros, parlaying a brilliant two-year stint there into a two-year, $30MM contract with the Rays. He’d finish third in American League Cy Young voting and play a major role in the Rays’ postseason bid that year before some arm trouble brought about a slow start in 2020. Morton righted the ship in the season’s final couple weeks, however, and looked to be back to his dominant ways for much of the Rays’ 2020 run to the World Series.
Morton was a coveted free agent this offseason but had a small selection of teams he was willing to consider. Playing with the Rays afforded him the opportunity to live in his Bradenton, Fla. home, and Morton was reportedly very intent on remaining in the southeast to be near his family. His one-year deal with the Braves underscored that preference, as does today’s decision to forgo the open market entirely in favor of another one-year pact in a setting where he’s obviously quite comfortable.
With this deal in place, the Braves have now extended a pair of veterans in advance of free agency. Catcher Travis d’Arnaud inked a two-year, $16MM contract a couple weeks back, giving the club some stability behind the dish (as well as a potential bridge to William Contreras and/or Shea Langeliers).
Having Morton and d’Arnaud locked up for 2022 gives the Braves a total of $77MM committed to six players next season, although the status of Marcell Ozuna and his $16MM salary remain to be determined. The Braves also have option buyouts to pay to Joc Pederson, Adam Duvall, Josh Tomlin and the already-released Ender Inciarte.
The Braves opened the 2021 season with a payroll of $131MM, so there’s plenty of room for them to further add to that $77MM in guarantees this coming winter. Presumably, some of those funds are earmarked for what the team and its fanbase hope will be a long-term extension for franchise cornerstone Freddie Freeman. That they’ve been able to secure new deals with d’Arnaud and Morton shows the Braves are more than comfortable having these discussions not only in-season but in the midst of a playoff race, so perhaps they’ll yet aim to strike up a new deal with Freeman before he ever formally reaches the market.
For now, the certainty with Morton means they’ll be able to count on the return of a veteran who has blossomed into one of the game’s most steadily productive arms late in his career. Morton can be penciled into the 2022 rotation alongside lefty Max Fried, right-hander Ian Anderson and, hopefully, oft-injured righty Mike Soroka. Still just 24 years old, Soroka broke out as one of the game’s most talented young starters in 2019 but has only pitched 13 2/3 innings since that time after tearing his Achilles tendon on two occasions. Soroka isn’t expected to be ready for the beginning of the 2022 campaign, however, so it stands to reason that the Braves could look for some additional rotation help this winter even with Morton now locked into a return.
Willie Calhoun Begins Rehab Assignment
Rangers corner outfielder/designated hitter Willie Calhoun began a minor league rehab assignment this evening, the team announced. He has been assigned to the club’s Arizona Complex League affiliate.
Calhoun hasn’t played since June 26, when he suffered a forearm fracture after being hit by a Kris Bubic pitch. The injury ultimately required surgical repair, which looked at the time as if it could threaten the remainder of his season. It now seems Calhoun is likely to make it back for the season’s final couple weeks. Position players can spend up to twenty days on a rehab assignment.
The forearm fracture was only the latest in a long line of health woes for Calhoun, who was also hit in the face with a pitch during Spring Training in 2020 and has dealt with a few leg issues. The injuries have perhaps impacted Calhoun’s productivity, as the former top prospect has underperformed over the last two seasons. After a 2019 season in which he hit .269/.323/.524 and looked to be emerging as one of the game’s better young bats, the lefty-hitting Calhoun has stumbled to a .233/.293/.344 mark in 334 plate appearances going back to the beginning of 2020.
The 48-88 Rangers have long been simply playing out the stretch, so the season’s final few weeks aren’t of much importance from a team perspective. But getting back onto the field and logging some at-bats could be meaningful for Calhoun as he looks to put his past couple years behind him. The 26-year-old is eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason, and he remains under team control through the end of 2024.
In other injury news, Levi Weaver of the Athletic reports (Twitter link) that reliever Matt Bush has begun throwing at the Rangers’ complex in Arizona. It seems unlikely he’ll have sufficient time to build his way back up to big league readiness before the end of the season, but Weaver adds that the hope is for Bush to log some minor league action over the next few weeks.
The 35-year-old Bush made just three appearances in the first week of April before landing on the injured list with elbow inflammation and a flexor strain. That came after the righty missed all of the 2019 and 2020 seasons with elbow injuries that eventually culminated in a Tommy John surgery. Even getting into a few minor league games before the end of the year would be a positive development if Bush is looking to make another run in 2022.
Texas could bring Bush back next season via arbitration for very little financial cost, although doing so would require keeping him on the 40-man roster all offseason. After three consecutive lost years, he seems likelier to be non-tendered and potentially brought back on a minor league deal.
The Giants’ Breakout Young Starter
Much has been made of the uncertainty in the Giants’ rotation beyond this season. Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Johnny Cueto (whose club option is likely to be bought out) are all in line to hit free agency. The San Francisco front office will have their work cut out for them in reconstructing a starting staff, but they do have one long-term building block under control: Logan Webb.
Webb hasn’t gotten as much fanfare as he deserves, probably a byproduct of the numerous bounce-back and breakout seasons up and down the San Francisco roster. His volume has been held in check by a couple of mid-season stints on the injured list due to shoulder troubles. But when Webb has been healthy enough to take the ball — as he is at the moment — he’s been incredible.
The right-hander has been one of the league’s most successful at keeping runs off the board. Webb owns a 2.56 ERA over 112 1/3 frames, the eighth-lowest mark among pitchers with 100+ innings pitched. And he’s unanimously posted strong peripherals. Webb has struck out 27% of batters faced, a mark that’s more than four percentage points better than the 22.7% average for starters. That’s backed up by strong rates of swinging strikes (12.3%) and called strikes (18.8%), both of which are more than a point above average. Webb has always had solid control, and his 6.7% walk percentage this season is lower than the league-wide mark.
While Webb has been at least solid across the board, he’s been truly excellent at keeping the ball on the ground. His 60.8% grounder rate is second-highest (trailing only Framber Valdez) among that same group of starters. Webb has leaned more heavily on his sinker, one of the lower-spinning fastballs in the game, this season. Unlike with four-seamers, the lack of spin is a feature for the sinker. Lower spin makes it less resistant to gravity, generally enabling pitchers to get more downhill action on the offering. Unsurprisingly, his sinker has been one of the best ground-ball pitches in the game.
Webb’s wide array of abilities makes for a rare skillset. Only 17 of the 103 pitchers with 100+ innings have posted better than average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. That’s not a unanimously great group — Adbert Alzolay and JT Brubaker haven’t had much success, for instance — but it’s certainly a positive indicator. 13 of those 17 hurlers have an ERA of 3.76 or lower, with five posting a sub-3.00 mark.
Webb has been good since the start of the season, but he’s really turned things on of late. Going back to the All-Star Break, he has an MLB-best 1.64 ERA in ten starts with high-end strikeout and walk rates. He’s benefitted from some batted ball and strand luck, but fielding independent pitching metrics still suggest Webb has been highly impressive. Only Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer have a SIERA better than Webb’s 3.00 since the Break, and his full-season mark of 3.18 is among the league’s ten best.
While the Giants’ front office will have plenty of decisions to make this offseason, they can at least pencil Webb in at or near the top of the 2022 rotation. The 24-year-old still has four more seasons of team control, and he won’t reach arbitration eligibility until the conclusion of next season. They could contemplate a long-term extension, but there’s still not yet a ton of urgency on that front.
One more pressing call that could be on the table is whether Webb’s breakout season has vaulted him to the top of this year’s rotation. San Francisco holds a one-game lead over the Dodgers in the NL West race after taking two of three from Los Angeles over the weekend. While they’re obviously hoping to hang onto that lead and avoid the Wild Card Game, there’s still a real chance they wind up in a one-game playoff next month.
If that ultimately turns out to be the case, Giants’ brass would face a tough choice deciding to whom to give the ball. Opening Day starter Gausman has been excellent going back two years and might be the top starting pitcher to hit the free agent market this offseason. But Webb has arguably been even better than Gausman this year. They’re essentially tied in ERA. Gausman has a slight edge in punchouts but Webb’s been much better at racking up grounders. Webb has the edge in SIERA and the two have nearly identical marks in FIP (2.89 for Gausman, 2.90 for Webb).
That would be a moot point if the Giants hold onto the division. Even if they do wind up in the Wild Card, having to make that kind of difficult decision is a good “problem” to have. That’s a testimony to Webb’s fantastic campaign, one which makes him the long-term anchor of a Giants’ rotation that could see plenty of upheaval elsewhere a few months from now.
Blue Jays Outright A.J. Cole
The Blue Jays announced this afternoon they’ve passed reliever A.J. Cole through waivers and assigned him outright to Triple-A Buffalo. Cole has previously been outrighted in his career, so he’ll have the right to elect free agency.
Cole logged 23 1/3 innings for the Jays last season, posting a 3.09 ERA but shakier peripherals. He was non-tendered over the winter but returned to the organization on a minor league deal. Selected to the big league roster in early May, Cole worked eight innings of one-run ball with seven strikeouts and just one walk. He landed on the 10-day injured list with neck tightness in early June, then suffered a left oblique strain that caused him to be shifted to the 60-day IL.
Nearing a return from those injuries, Cole began a minor league rehab assignment on August 11. Pitchers are allotted thirty days on rehab, and with Cole’s window dwindling, the Jays had to decide whether to bring him back. Rather than reinstall Cole to the active and 40-man rosters, Toronto elected to place him on waivers.
Cole has also appeared with the Nationals, Yankees and Indians over parts of seven big league seasons. Overall, the 29-year-old owns a 4.51 ERA/4.25 SIERA in 205 1/3 innings. Even if Cole accepts this outright assignment, he’d qualify for minor league free agency this winter if the Jays don’t add him back to the 40-man roster by the end of the season.
Dodgers Select Neftali Feliz
The Dodgers have selected the contract of right-hander Neftali Feliz and optioned southpaw Andrew Vasquez to Triple-A Oklahoma City, per a club announcement.
Feliz, 33, was with the Dodgers for a scoreless inning earlier this season but was designated for assignment and outrighted to Oklahoma City after clearing waivers. The 2010 American League Rookie of the Year made his first MLB appearance since 2017 earlier this season with the Phillies but was hit hard in three innings before being cut loose.
While he’s struggled in limited big league action this season, Feliz has been nothing short of dominant in a hitter-friendly Triple-A setting. He’s logged a combined 38 innings between the top affiliates for the Phillies and the Dodgers, pitching to an overall 2.13 ERA with a massive 40.1 percent strikeout rate, a 9.2 percent walk rate and just 25 hits allowed (albeit five home runs).
There’s no guarantee this will be anything other than another very brief look for Feliz, even with his dominance in Triple-A. The L.A. bullpen has been overpowering over the past month, collectively pitching to an MLB-best 1.99 earned run average in that time. Six different relievers — Blake Treinen, Kenley Jansen, Phil Bickford, Alex Vesia, Brusdar Graterol and Justin Bruihl — have pitched at least 10 innings with an ERA of 2.63 or better over the past month. In the past 30 days, the “worst” ERA for any Dodgers reliever who has appeared in multiple games is Joe Kelly‘s 4.15. With such a strong showing from the relief corps as a whole, Feliz may have a hard time sticking around, though the expansion of rosters from 26 to 28 players helps his cause.
Marlins Claim Taylor Williams Off Waivers From Padres
The Marlins announced they’ve claimed reliever Taylor Williams off waivers from the Padres. In a corresponding move, Miami designated infielder Deven Marrero for assignment.
Williams has pitched in the majors in each of the past five seasons. The right-hander broke in with the Brewers in 2017 and landed with the Mariners last year after three seasons with Milwaukee. San Diego acquired Williams late last season but he made just one appearance down the stretch. The 30-year-old pitched in five games with the Padres this April, working 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts and three walks. He landed on the injured list with right knee inflammation midway through the season’s first month, though, and he remained on the IL until September 1.
The Friars designated Williams just a couple days after reinstating him from the IL. He’s out of minor league option years, meaning San Diego had to expose him to waivers in order to remove him from the active roster. The Marlins stepped in to add Williams for almost no cost, but they’ll too now have to keep him in the majors of risk losing him on waivers themselves.
Over the course of his career, Williams has a 5.17 ERA in 92 1/3 innings of relief. His strikeout and walk rates (24.3% and 10.5%) are right around league average for bullpen arms, and he’s induced whiffs on a solid 12.9% of his career offerings. Those peripherals suggest Williams could yet settle in as a decent middle relief option, at the very least. If the Fish keep him on the roster, he can be controlled through 2024 via arbitration.
Miami has now designated Marrero five times this year. The Marlins have selected him to the 40-man roster whenever the club finds itself in need of additional infield depth, but he hasn’t stuck on the big league roster for long. Marrero cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Jacksonville each of the previous four times, so it seems likely he’ll stick around in the high minors yet again.
Pirates Claim Connor Overton
The Pirates claimed right-hander Connor Overton off waivers from the Blue Jays on Monday, according to a club announcement from Pittsburgh. To make room on the 40-man roster, righty Duane Underwood Jr. was transferred from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list.
Overton, 28, was designated for assignment by the Jays last week to make roster space for their waiver claim of veteran infielder Jake Lamb. Overton’s initial call the Majors this season was his first, and he responded by tossing 6 2/3 innings of scoreless ball with four strikeouts and a pair of walks. It was the continuation of a strong season in Triple-A, where he’d logged a 2.03 ERA with a below-average 21.6 percent strikeout rate but an excellent 4.3 percent walk rate and an above-average 47.9 percent ground-ball rate.
The bulk of Overton’s career has been spent in the Giants organization, although he was originally a 15th-round pick of the Marlins back in 2014. He’s been a minor league free agent on three occasions, going first to the Nationals, then to the Giants and lastly to the Blue Jays. Along the way, Overton has battled multiple injuries, including Tommy John surgery, and played for a pair of teams on the independent circuit: the Atlantic League’s Lancaster Barnstormers and the American Association’s Sioux City Explorers.
It hasn’t been the most straightforward path to the big leagues for Overton, but he’ll get another opportunity to add to an impressive start now that he’s headed to the Pirates. Overton has all of his minor league options remaining, so he could be a flexible depth option for the Bucs next season if they’re willing to keep him on the 40-man roster all winter. In parts of three Triple-A seasons, Overton has a 2.39 ERA with a 22.4 percent strikeout rate, a 5.4 percent walk rate and a 46.9 percent ground-ball rate.