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7 AL West Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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As the season draws closer, we’ll be examining several prominent players around the majors who are hoping for bounce-back years. Let’s start with a group of well-known American League West position players whose numbers dipped dramatically in 2019…

Justin Upton, LF, Angels: The 32-year-old Upton has been terrific for the majority of his career (otherwise, the Angels wouldn’t have given him a five-year, $106MM guarantee after 2017), but last season was a nightmare. A foot injury kept Upton out until June, and his season ended prematurely in September on account of a right knee issue. When Upton was healthy enough to take the field, he batted a disappointing .215/.309/.416 with 12 home runs and a career-worst 30.5 percent strikeout rate (5 percent worse than his lifetime mark). Compared to 2018, his fly ball percentage and launch angle went way up, but his average exit velocity dropped almost 4 mph, and his hard-hit rate plummeted. The banged-up Upton was even worse in left field, where he accounted for minus-13 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-5.2 Ultimate Zone Rating. Upton recently told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that he’s healthy and aiming for a rebound. The Angels will likely need one from him if they’re going to break a five-year playoff drought; if they get one, Upton should form a lethal offensive quartet with Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Shohei Ohtani.

Andrelton Simmons, SS, Angels: Like his teammate Upton, Simmons missed a significant number of games last year because of injury issues. Ankle troubles limited Simmons to 103 games, his fewest since 2012, and his effectiveness at the plate waned compared to the prior couple years. While Simmons has never been an offensive force, the defensive maven’s slightly above-average work with the bat from 2017-18 helped him combine for 10.4 fWAR in that span. Simmons only put up a .264/.309/.364 line in 424 PA last year, though he did continue to avoid strikeouts (8.7 percent), and his wizardry in the field helped him to a respectable 1.7 fWAR. However, he still finished near the bottom of the majors in several key offensive Statcast categories. For instance, Simmons’ xwOBA (.265) ranked in the bottom 2 percent of the league and fell 59 points from 2018. The ankle may have been holding Simmons back, but regardless, a return to form in 2020 would aid the Angels and the pending free agent’s bank account.

Khris Davis, DH, Athletics: Yet another injury case from 2019, Davis’ normally elite power was sapped during a season in which he fought hip, oblique and hand problems. After three straight 40-home run seasons (and four in a row in which he hit .247), he finished with a .220/.293/.387 line and 23 HRs over 533 PA. His ISO sunk like a stone, going from .302 in 2018 to .166 last year, and his hard contact went way down in the process. The 32-year-old has already been slowed by a calf injury early in camp, but indications are that it’s minor. Oakland will need that to be the case, especially considering the commitment the low-budget club made to Davis before last season. It still owes him $16.75MM on a two-year, $33.5MM contract that hasn’t worked out for the team so far.

Stephen Piscotty, RF, Athletics: The missed time theme continues. Piscotty’s 2019 ailments ranged from frightening (a melanoma on his right ear) to more conventional (knee and ankle injuries). The 29-year-old made just 93 appearances as a result, and he didn’t produce like the big-hitting, 3.0-fWAR player he was in 2018 when he did play. Piscotty hit .249/.309/.412 with 13 homers and 0.6 fWAR in 393 PA, though his hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity both increased. There may be hope for return to his career-best output, then, but Piscotty will first have to get over yet another health issue. He’s dealing with an oblique/rib cage injury that could jeopardize his status for Opening Day.

Mitch Haniger, RF, Mariners: Haniger was quietly great in 2018, but his playing time and his numbers sagged last season. He sat out 99 games after suffering a ruptured testicle at the beginning of June, didn’t play again after that and still hasn’t returned to health. Haniger just underwent his second surgery in the past few weeks – a microdiscectomy on his back – leaving it up in the air when he’ll debut in 2020. The 29-year-old is the Mariners’ best player, though, and if they can get a healthy version back sometime in 2020, he’s as logical a bounce-back candidate as anyone.

Mallex Smith, OF, Mariners: Smith looked like a quality pickup for the Mariners when they acquired him from the Rays after the 2018 campaign. At that point, the speedster was coming off a 3.5-fWAR, 40-steal showing in Tampa Bay. Smith amassed even more stolen bases in is first year in Seattle (46), but the rest of his stats tanked. The 26-year-old hit a weak .227/.300/.335 in 566 trips to the plate, while his defensive output was similarly poor (minus-12 DRS, minus-9.5 UZR).  The combination of subpar offense and defense led to a replacement-level fWAR for Smith, who also fell victim to a massive decline in batting average on balls in play. He logged an inflated .366 BABIP in ’18 and a .302 mark in that category last season, which partially explains the drastic difference in year-to-year production.

Rougned Odor, 2B, Rangers: If you’re a Rangers fan (or even part of the organization), you may be tired of Odor’s inconsistency. He has been a 2.0-plus-fWAR player three times in his career, most recently in 2018, but a replacement-level or worse performer twice. That includes last season – even though Odor walloped 30 homers, he was only able to slash .205/.283/.439 in 581 tries. Along the way, the left-handed Odor posted his worst strikeout percentage (30.6) and was eaten alive by righty pitchers, who held him to a dismal .190/.260/.417 line. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that Odor was much better in the second half of the season, ending the year with a flourish after general manager Jon Daniels expressed frustration with his production in late August. The Rangers still owe Odor $36MM through 2022, making it all the more important for the club to receive at least passable production from him.

Red Sox Notes: Weber, Verdugo, Moreland, JBJ

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Just what are the Red Sox thinking by tying up a 40-man roster spot on righty Ryan Weber? Chad Jennings of The Athletic explores (subscription link). The club sees Weber as a clear candidate to take the fifth starter’s role or at least to serve as valuable depth. (He can still be optioned.) While his stuff isn’t eye-popping, it seems the org’s talent evaluators were wowed by Weber’s “command and execution.” And new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom evidently hasn’t seen cause yet to disagree. Weber doesn’t throw hard and owns only a 5.04 ERA in 114 1/3 MLB innings over the past five seasons. It’ll be interesting to see whether the Sox can help him find a path to contributing value in 2020.

In other news out of Boston, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com rounds up a series of interesting stories on the Sox. We’ll take a brief look at those of particular hot stove relevance …

  • There’s some good news on the progress of recently acquired outfielder Alex Verdugo, but also some added questions. Bradford writes that the 23-year-old has made major strides just since camp opened — but also that he may miss a month or more of the regular season. “The fact it is taking this long is frustrating,” says Verdugo. “What keeps me positive is that all the players, the staff, the trainers, they all support me. They all want me to wait until I’m fully healthy and get back.” Verdugo spoke about the lingering back and related issues that have plagued him for some time now, saying that he had been on a “regular workout plan” from the Dodgers that (it now seems) may not have been the best approach.
  • Regardless whether this lengthy recovery process could’ve been shortened, it’s certainly disappointing that the Boston organization is dealing with this sort of uncertainty surrounding the key player acquired in exchange for Mookie Betts. And Verdugo’s potential also makes for a key component of the team’s 2020 outlook. Even without Betts, the club is certainly at least a plausible Wild Card contender. Fans feeling down about the situation may at least be buoyed somewhat to learn of Verdugo’s unabashed affinity for legend David Ortiz (Twitter link).
  • Returning veteran first baseman Mitch Moreland spoke of his most recent stint on the open market. While he again ended up inking with the Sox, it wasn’t an obvious outcome for much of the winter. Moreland, a Mississippi native, says he fielded interest from a number of other clubs, including some “really close to home that were enticing.” Ultimately, the Red Sox re-engaged — and Moreland says he was happy to work it out to remain in Boston. The Sox will be pleased if they get a repeat of Moreland’s 2019 output; he slashed .252/.328/.507 (112 wRC+) after putting up only league-average offensive output in his first two years with the club.
  • The free agent process can certainly have its twists and turns, but center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. sees it in a positive light. Bradley, who’ll hit the open market next winter, tells Bradford that he’s looking forward to having the ability “to finally make a choice for yourself.” There are ways in which nearing free agency can be stressful, he acknowledged, but that’s all a matter of perspective. For Bradley, there’s nothing but upside: “Why not be excited about it?” he queried.

Free Agent Market Still Stocked With Well-Known Players

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As we all know, past performance — especially, long-past performance — is no guarantee of more in the future. Teams are looking at more than Baseball-Reference career totals. That said, track record does generally reflect a high degree of skill. And there’s always value in a respected veteran.

Much of the offseason’s work is obviously complete at this point, but the leftover slate of free agents is somewhat more interesting than usual. Whatever one might think about their outlook for the future, there’s no denying the past accomplishments — and sheer name value — of quite a few players that are still available on the open market …

Seriously, the mass of talent would’ve made for an unbelievable roster just a few years back. Just for kicks, and to highlight the point, here’s a 26-man roster of remaining free agents, based upon career accomplishments and star power:

Starting Lineup

  1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF: He hasn’t even been on the field in some time, but let’s not forget that Ells once turned in a 9.5 fWAR season.
  2. Melky Cabrera, LF: In his prime, the Melk Man was one of the game’s best pure average hitters. Heck, he still hit (a rather shallow) .280 in 2019.
  3. Hanley Ramirez, DH: We’ll keep guys in their current positions, so no cheating by plugging HanRam in at short. Dude could rake in his prime.
  4. Mark Reynolds, 1B: We’re going old school with a big ol’ first bagger slugger in the cleanup spot. The twist? It’s a 3-man platoon.
  5. Yasiel Puig, RF: The best present-day talent from this group, the enigmatic outfielder is still waiting for an appealing opportunity to open.
  6. Scooter Gennett, 2B: Though he has had more middling seasons than really good ones, Gennett had a heckuva two-year stretch with the Reds.
  7. Jung Ho Kang, 3B: Another player that had a pretty strong ceiling but couldn’t sustain it. There’s no word yet on Kang’s future plans.
  8. Russell Martin, C: Still a useful part-time catcher in recent years, Martin was long a somewhat underrated workhorse. Perhaps he could still add to a 55 fWAR career.
  9. Tim Beckham, SS: He’s not going to lead this lineup, but the former top overall pick has been good enough for long stretches to serve as a plausible semi-regular shortstop for a contender.

Bench

C – Jesus Sucre

1B/OF (!) – Lucas Duda, Mark Trumbo

INF – Devon Travis, Addison Russell

Rotation

  1. Matt Harvey: It remains hard to believe how far Harvey has fallen.
  2. Clay Buchholz: If only we could presume health.
  3. Andrew Cashner: Never reached his ceiling but has had some strong campaigns out of the rotation.
  4. Marco Estrada: For a stretch, Estrada was a quietly sturdy and useful mid-rotation pitcher.
  5. Jason Vargas: The soft-tossing southpaw is the ultimate #5 starter. He has only once topped 3 fWAR in a season … yet has accumulated more fWAR in his career than any of the guys listed above.

Bullpen

  1. Danny Salazar: I’ve got my eyes on an alternative universe where Salazar stays healthy and dominates for a decade as a Josh Hader-type high-leverage flex reliever.
  2. Aaron Sanchez: Ditto!
  3. Luke Gregerson: Long one of the most reliable late-inning arms in baseball.
  4. Pat Neshek: And another.
  5. Fernando Rodney: Are we getting a whole lot of misadventures or the absurd dominance of 2012? Couldn’t tell ya; finding out is all part of the Experience.
  6. Zach Duke: The re-made reliever version of Duke was a beast in 2014.
  7. Jonny Venters: Ah, what could have been. The Braves rode Venters hard in 2010-11, when he mowed down hitters with both strikeouts and groundballs.

Manager

Ben Zobrist (reportedly set to retire)

Camp Battles: Yankees’ First Base Situation

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The Yankees have gotten more from first baseman Luke Voit than they realistically could have expected when they acquired him from the Cardinals in July 2018. A 22nd-round pick of the Cardinals in 2013, Voit ultimately managed just 137 plate appearances with the team before it sent him to the Yankees in a swap that has worked out well for both sides. Voit has been quite productive as a member of the Yankees, with whom he has hit .280/.384/.517 in 658 trips to the plate, while reliever Giovanny Gallegos emerged as an integral piece of the Cardinals’ bullpen a year ago. However, despite the good numbers Voit has put up with the Bronx Bombers, he doesn’t necessarily have first base on lockdown heading into the new season. Rather, the team’s “open to other options” there, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News writes. Let’s take a look at who’s in the mix…

  • Luke Voit: The 29-year-old slashed a robust .263/.378/.464 with 21 home runs in 510 PA in 2019, his first full campaign as a Yankee, but his production dropped precipitously in the second half. Voit battled sports hernia issues throughout, though he insists those problems are behind him. “I had a bunch of MRIs during the season and I finally saw Dr. Myers, a specialist in Philadelphia, and he told me I tore everything down there,” Voit told Ackert. “I was just like, ‘Wow,’ I didn’t really know it was that bad. I tried to fight through it. I’m a competitor I want to play… the past is the past, but now I’m feeling good and ready to get things rolling.”
  • Mike Ford: Voit’s injury troubles last year helped pave the way for the lefty-hitting Ford’s major league debut, and he took full advantage. The 27-year-old batted .259/.350/.559 with prodigious power numbers (.301 ISO, 12 homers) over 163 plate appearances. And Ford didn’t sell out for more power by racking up a lot of strikeouts, as he fanned just 17.2 percent of the time (compared to a 10.4 percent walk rate). Moreover, his swinging-strike rate (8.1) checked in exactly 3 percent better than average, and he was actually far more effective versus same-handed pitchers than righties (albeit during a limited sample of work). The track record in the bigs is still small – even Ford recently said to Brendan Kuty of NJ.com, “Anyone could be good for 160 at-bats” – but he also held his own in Triple-A, where he owns a .274/.364/.514 mark in almost 900 PA.
  • Miguel Andujar: An AL Rookie of the Year candidate back in 2018, Andujar fell on hard times last season because of shoulder woes that held him to a mere 12 games. Andujar was the Yankees’ starting third baseman in his first year, but Gio Urshela filled that role with aplomb when he was down last season and is in line to enter 2020 as their starter there. Andujar, 24, could therefore pick up time at first base and in the corner outfield if the Yankees want to keep his bat in the lineup.

Fortunately for the Yankees, they’re not at immediate risk of losing any of these players if they don’t earn MLB roster spots to begin the season. All three have two minor league options apiece remaining, so New York could send any of them to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre if it wants. But they’ve all shown well as big league hitters so far, and the Yankees do have the luxury of deploying a DH. So, regardless of position, Voit, Ford and Andujar could each make a notable impact in the majors this season.

Health Notes: Suarez, Piscotty, Archer, Clase/Civale

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Fortunately, there hasn’t been much in the way of negative health news to this point of Spring Training. Let’s check in on a few issues that have arisen …

  • Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez is feeling both excitement and some trepidation as he nears readiness to test his recently tweaked shoulder, as Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. Indication remains that Suarez could conceivably be ready to roll on Opening Day. He says he’s getting his timing down even as he avoids throwing or swinging full-bore. But there are also some nerves as he prepares to ramp up. “Just a little bit because I know I have something there,” Suarez said when asked whether he’s nervous. “I don’t want to get hurt again. I have to be careful. We’ll see what happens.”
  • After a disappointing 2019 season, the last thing Athletics outfielder Stephen Piscotty wants to deal with is another injury issue. Right now, the hope is that his oblique/rib cage problem isn’t going to represent a major limitation, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. But Piscotty might be down for another week and it’s beginning to look like Opening Day readiness could be in doubt. That’d be a disappointment, of course, but it’s surely better than rushing back and ending up with a bigger problem.
  • Neck tightness kept Pirates righty Chris Archer from making a scheduled outing today, as Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic was among those to report on Twitter. There hasn’t been a substantial update just yet, but there’s no reason to believe that this is more than a minor blip.
  • It’s a similar situation in Indians’ camp, where righties Emmanuel Clase and Aaron Civale have been limited. As MLB.com’s Mandy Bell tweets, the former is dealing with lat discomfort and the latter a sore groin. While Clase is going to slow his build-up to let things calm down, Civale is preparing to throw a sim game.

Camp Battles: Twins’ Fifth Starter

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Entering the offseason, the Twins’ rotation consisted of Jose Berrios and, uh … [checks notes] — that’s about it. Minnesota had quite a bit of work to do to fill out the starting staff and immediately received a boost when Jake Odorizzi accepted a $17.8MM qualifying offer. The Twins brought back another piece of their ’19 rotation when they agreed to a two-year, $20MM deal with Michael Pineda, although he’ll miss the first six weeks while serving the remainder of a reduced 60-game PED suspension. The rest of their moves took a bit longer, but by the time the Twins reported to camp in Fort Myers, Fla., they had lockers set up for Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill and Homer Bailey.

Minnesota didn’t get the “impact” pitching they proclaimed to be a priority, instead pivoting to give Josh Donaldson the second-largest deal in franchise history (four years, $92MM) after coming up short in their pursuits of Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu and (reportedly to a lesser extent) Madison Bumgarner. But they’ll break camp with a rotation consisting of Berrios, Odorizzi, Maeda and Bailey, with both Pineda and Hill (coming back from elbow surgery) looming as midseason additions.

As for the fifth spot early in the season? The Twins have a handful of options who’ll be considered over the course of the next month, including a series of optionable 40-man roster members and at least one low-risk non-roster invitee…

  • Randy Dobnak, RHP: It’s hard not to consider Dobnak the front-runner, considering the Twins entrusted him with a postseason start last year after Pineda was suspended. That outing, of course, didn’t go well, but Dobnak’s 2019 season was nonetheless an eye-opener. It took the 25-year-old two years and one week to go from undrafted indie league hurler to the Majors. His rapid ascent in 2019 was in no small part due to the combined 2.07 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 0.40 HR/9 and near-60 percent ground-ball rate he turned in over 135 minor league innings (three levels). Upon reaching the big leagues, Dobnak turned in a 1.59 ERA and 2.90 FIP in 28 1/3 innings. He won’t simply be handed the job, but Dobnak went from an unranked prospect within the Twins’ system to a potential rotation favorite in the span of one year.
  • Devin Smeltzer, LHP: Not to be overshadowed, Smeltzer had an impressive 2019 campaign of his own. Acquired in the trade that sent Brian Dozier to Los Angeles, the 24-year-old turned in a 2.76 ERA with a pristine 104-to-22 K/BB ratio in 104 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. His big league work wasn’t quite as sharp, but in 49 innings, Smeltzer gave the Twins a 3.86 ERA with averages of 7.0 strikeouts, 2.2 walks and 1.47 homers per nine innings pitched. Like Dobnak, he elevated his status within the organization about as much as a prospect can in a year’s time. For what it’s worth, the Twins’ outfield defense is vastly superior to its infield defense, and Smeltzer is a fly-ball pitcher.
  • Lewis Thorpe, LHP: Thorpe, 24, was a notable signing out of Australia back on the 2012-13 international market and twice landed on Baseball Prospectus’ Top 101 prospects list (2014-15). Tommy John surgery in 2015 wound up costing him all of the 2015-16 seasons, though, which significantly delayed his path to the big leagues. Thorpe has shown huge strikeout ability in the minors, and while last year’s 4.58 ERA in Triple-A doesn’t look like much, it was at least a respectable showing in a league that was dominated by hitters. Thorpe averaged better than 11 punchouts per nine frames in Triple-A and struck out 31 hitters in 27 2/3 MLB frames in his debut effort. His bottom-line results in the Majors weren’t great (6.18 ERA), but he’s now fully recovered from Tommy John surgery and misses more bats than any of his competition.
  • Jhoulys Chacin, RHP (non-roster): The primary veteran NRI in Twins camp, Chacin stumbled through the worst season of his career in 2019, recording a 6.01 ERA and serving up an average of 2.2 homers per nine innings pitched. The long ball has never been an Achilles heel for Chacin, though, and he’s only a year removed from a strong showing in Milwaukee (3.50 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 in 192 2/3 innings). In fact, from 2013-18, Chacin notched a 3.96 ERA/4.02 FIP in 804 1/3 innings. It’ll surprise some to learn that Chacin only just turned 32 years old in January — he debuted at 21 back in 2009 — so a rebound is hardly out of the question. It seems likely that Chacin would need to handily outperform the rest of the field, given that he’s not on the 40-man roster, but he’s in the mix even if he’s a long shot.

Whoever wins the competition appears likely to be a stopgap until Pineda returns, but it’s possible that any combination of the candidates will also see action in the bullpen as well. This group will also be the Twins’ first line of defense against potential injuries. However it shakes out, Minnesota seems likely to once again explore the market for higher-end pitching upgrades on the summer trade market. The above-listed candidates, Pineda and Hill give the Twins plenty of depth in the rotation, but expect them to pursue potential playoff-rotation-caliber arms in the weeks leading up to the deadline as well.

Andrew Cashner Being Marketed As Reliever

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The 19 relief appearances that Andrew Cashner made with the Red Sox last year were his first bullpen outings since 2013, but it seems as though more could be in the offing. Cashner has been positioned as a bullpen option in recent conversations with teams, MLBTR has learned.

Shifting Cashner to the ’pen isn’t exactly a new notion. It’s been a widely proposed idea for years, and we even delved into it here last May when Cashner was still enjoying some success in the Baltimore rotation. That he’s now being “pitched” (awful pun intended — sorry) to clubs as a reliever is notable, though. The Athletic’s Dan Connolly noted last summer (subscription required) that Cashner’s preference has generally been to pitch out of the rotation, but it seems he’s now more on board with a ’pen setting — perhaps after enjoying some success in that capacity with Boston last year.

The Red Sox acquired Cashner to plug a hole in their rotation, but he did little to aid the team’s starting staff; over the life of six starts with Boston, Cashner pitched 30 1/3 innings and surrendered 27 earned runs. That pushed him to the bullpen, where he closed out the season with a 3.86 ERA, a 21-to-12 K/BB ratio and one home run allowed in 23 2/3 innings. Cashner averaged 93.6 mph on his fastball as a starter but 95.4 mph as a reliever. His swinging-strike rate saw a similar boost (8.8 percent to 13.1 percent). Taking a broader look, the gap between Cashner’s effectiveness the first and second time through the batting order (.297 wOBA vs. .327) was a fair bit more stark than that of the league-average AL pitcher (.317 vs. .335).

There are clearly some control issues that need to be sorted out, and Cashner’s recent work as a starter has been anything but encouraging. However, Cashner has enough indicators of legitimate interest as a reliever that the shift to the ’pen seems plenty sensible. That’s not to say that teams should be lining up with blank checks, but as a low-cost Spring Training flier for a club seeking bullpen depth, Cashner is one of the more interesting options available in a largely picked-over free agent market.

Rangers’ Brock Burke To Undergo Shoulder Surgery

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The Rangers will be without one of their top pitching prospects for all of the 2020 season, as the organization announced Monday that lefty Brock Burke will undergo arthroscopic surgery to repair fraying and a partial tear in the labrum of his left shoulder this week. He’s not expected to pitch again until 2021.

Burke wasn’t projected to crack the Opening Day roster, but he would’ve functioned as a key depth piece for the club’s reworked rotation. He’s already on the 40-man roster and made his MLB debut last August — shortly after his 23rd birthday. Burke struggled in six big league starts (22 runs in 26 2/3 innings), but he posted a 3.90 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a minuscule 0.4 HR/9 across three minor league levels last year. The Rangers initially acquired him from the Rays in last offseason’s three-team swap that sent Jurickson Profar to Oakland.

Texas’ offseason acquisitions of Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles pushed Burke and fellow left-hander Kolby Allard out of the rotation mix early in the season, but both pitchers were one big league injury away from being summoned from Triple-A Nashville to the newly constructed Globe Life Field in Arlington. Earlier this winter, Baseball America ranked Burke 21st among Rangers prospects — the same slot he occupied on FanGraphs’ most recent ranking of the Texas minor league system. He’s generally regarded as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter who gets by with average across-the-board stuff rather than a particular plus offering.

Burke will likely be placed on the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man roster spot at some point this spring, thus positioning him to accrue a full year of Major League service time while he rehabs from Friday’s upcoming procedure. That’s surely not the way that the Rangers would’ve preferred to open a 40-man spot, but the club does have several non-roster invitees in camp who stand a realistic chance of making the team. Matt Duffy, Greg Bird, Sam Travis, Cody Allen, Blake Swihart, Edinson Volquez, Juan Nicasio and Derek Law are among the notable non-roster players in big league camp with Texas in 2020.

Blue Jays To Sign Marc Rzepczynski

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The Blue Jays have agreed to a minor league deal with veteran left-hander Marc Rzepczynski, manager Charlie Montoyo revealed when meeting with reporters Monday morning (Twitter link via Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling). Rzepczynski still needs to complete his physical, but once he does, the JBA Sports client will head to Major League camp as a non-roster invitee.

Rzepczynski, 34, didn’t pitch in the big leagues in 2019 — the first time since 2008 that he didn’t pitch at least 10 innings in a big league season. Instead, the southpaw spent the year with the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A affiliate, where he pitched to a 5.04 ERA with 36 strikeouts against 28 walks in 44 innings of relief. Suffice it to say, the 2019 campaign wasn’t one of the southpaw’s best.

That said, Rzepczynski has a generally solid track record at the big league level. He’s compiled a 3.89 ERA and near-identical 3.88 FIP in 434 2/3 MLB frames — including a quality run from 2011-17 that saw him log a 3.61 earned run average (3.59 FIP) in 299 1/3 innings. It’s been two years since his last effective campaign at the MLB level, but there’s little harm in taking a speculative spring look to see a rebound appears possible.

Major League Baseball’s recent rule changes — the three-batter minimum for pitches, specifically — won’t do any favors for the man perhaps more commonly known as “Scrabble.” Rzepczynski has generally been used in a specialized left-on-left role throughout his career. Lefty hitters have mustered only a dismal .227/.296/.305 slash against him in 857 trips to the plate, but righties have had far less difficulty, as evidenced by a .280/.385/.437 output in 1035 plate appearances.

Assessing The Brewers’ Rotation

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As seems to be the case every spring, there’s a fair bit of uncertainty surrounding the Brewers’ rotation. Milwaukee eschewed a splashy trade or a potentially cumbersome long-term pact in free agencu, instead opting for lower-cost deals with righty Josh Lindblom (three years, $9.125MM) and Brett Anderson (one year, $5MM) As things currently stand, that duo will likely join holdovers Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser in comprising four of the top five spots.

As for the fifth spot in the rotation, Brewers manager Craig Counsell told reporters yesterday that the competition will likely boil down to left-hander Eric Lauer and right-hander Freddy Peralta (Twitter link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). Righty Corbin Burnes isn’t entirely out of the race, but Counsell did indicate that veteran right-hander Shelby Miller won’t be considered just yet. While Miller was invited to MLB camp and will presumably get some innings there, he’s working to reestablish himself after several lost seasons.

The competition between Lauer and Peralta will be a key one for Brewers fans to follow this spring. The former, a 24-year-old lefty picked up alongside Luis Urias in the trade that sent Zach Davies and Trent Grisham to San Diego, already has nearly two full seasons of MLB experience under his belt despite his relative youth. Lauer started 29 games for the Padres last season, pitching to a 4.45 ERA with 8.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9 and a 39.9 percent ground-ball rate in 149 2/3 innings.

Lauer pitched into the seventh and eighth inning on a few occasions but ultimately averaged about five frames per start — a concept that should be plenty familiar to Brewers fans at this point. Milwaukee regularly limited the aforementioned Davies and right-hander Chase Anderson to two trips through the opponents’ batting order, leveraging a deep bullpen thereafter. If he wins the fifth spot in the rotation, Lauer could be deployed in similar fashion.

Peralta, meanwhile, is still just 23 year of age. Like Lauer, he’s racked up a fair bit of big league experience in his early 20s, pitching to a combined 4.79 ERA in 163 1/3 Major League innings to this point. Peralta spent most of the 2019 season in a multi-inning relief role — showing better in that capacity than he did as a starting pitcher. But Peralta has added a new pitch to his repertoire this winter, as Tom Haudricourt and Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel recently highlighted, which could change his fortunes. A chat with former big league righty and current Brewers special assistant Carlos Villanueva led to Peralta trying out a slider in the Dominican Winter League, and he responded with a 34-to-3 K/BB ratio in 20 innings with los Toros del Este.

The 25-year-old Burnes could be something of a wild card as camp progresses. A consensus top 100 prospect heading into 2018, Burnes debuted in dominant fashion with the ’18 club when he tossed 38 innings of 2.61 ERA ball with a 35-to-11 K/BB ratio. He made 30 total relief appearances, allowing just 27 hits (four homers); of his 11 walks, two were of the intentional variety. Burnes posted elite spin rates on his curve and heater while flashing high-end velocity. He looked like a potential cornerstone for the pitching staff.

The 2019 season was an unmitigated disaster for Burnes, however. The hitter-friendly nature of the 2019 ball likely didn’t help matters, nor did a sky-high .414 average on balls in play. But Burnes’ poor showing can’t be solely blamed on a juiced ball or poor luck; he was absolutely torched for 48 runs in 49 innings of work — yielding a stunning 17 home runs in that time. The right-hander showed a clear knack for missing bats (12.9 K/9, 17.2 percent swinging-strike rate) but struggled with location both in and out of the zone far. Burnes’ walk rate increased, and his inability to command the ball within the zone contributed to that barrage of long balls.

Regardless of how it shakes out, the Milwaukee rotation will enter the season facing its share of scrutiny. That’s been the case in both of the past two seasons, however, and the team reached the postseason in both instances. A year ago. The 2019 season saw Jhoulys Chacin, Chase Anderson, Woodruff, Davies, Houser and Gio Gonzalez make the majority of its starts. A year prior, the Brewers entered the season with Chacin, Anderson, Davies, Junior Guerra, Brent Suter and Wade Miley (then on a minor league reclamation deal) heading up its rotation mix.

There may not be a surefire ace among Milwaukee’s starting staff, but both Woodruff and Houser posted sub-4.00 ERAs with strong peripheral marks in more than 100 innings in 2019. Lindblom is an undeniably interesting flier coming off a dominant run in the Korea Baseball Organization, thanks in part to a new splitter. Brett Anderson has a 4.07 ERA and a 55 percent ground-ball rate over the past two seasons (256 1/3 innings). It’s not the most outwardly impressive group of arms, but the Brewers have begun to make a habit of compiling serviceable staffs that are light on name value. They’ll be looking for more of the same in 2020.

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