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Minor MLB Transactions: 3/9/19

By Ty Bradley | March 9, 2019 at 1:58pm CDT

Rounding up the latest in minor moves from around the game…

Per Matt Eddy of Baseball America, the Twins have signed IF/OF Jordany Valdespin to a minor-league deal. Valdespin, 31, had a memorable mid-summer run for the Mets in 2012, smacking a series of late-game, go-ahead homers for the team in his rookie MLB season. Jordany’s career has been in a bit of tailspin since: the Domincan-born utilityman has managed just a .216/.271/.369 (79 wRC+, 0.1 career fWAR) line in 467 career PA over four seasons with New York and Miami. Valdespin spent all of 2017 in the Mexican League before tallying a full-season’s worth of AB’s for Long Island of the independent Atlantic League in 2018. He performed well at both stops, and seemed to again flash the power jolt that had tapered off after his electrifying debut. The lefty’s seen time at five major league positions during his MLB tenure, including a number of starts at both shortstop and center field, so an eventual utility role isn’t completely out of the question.

Nationals Release Sammy Solis

By Ty Bradley | March 9, 2019 at 1:04pm CDT

Per a team release, the Nationals have released LHP Sammy Solis unconditionally.

Solis, 30, had spent the entirety of his 9-year professional career with the organization, appearing in 141 games (all in relief) at the MLB level. In 39 1/3 IP last season, where he was deployed mostly as a lefty specialist, Solis’s ugly 6.41 ERA was at least somewhat offset by an encouraging 10.07 K/9 and 45% grounder rate.

Despite his traditional left-handed role in the Nats’ pen, Solis has actually been more effective against right-handers over the course of his career, notching a combined .306 wOBA against, compared to .329 vs same-side bats. Beset for much of his big-league time by persistent command issues, Solis’s also been a victim of the recent homer surge around the game, with over 17% of his fly balls coming to rest in the seats since the start of 2017.

After avoiding arbitration by signing a one-year, $850K pact with the team in November, Solis was set to compete for the second-lefty role in the Washington pen with longtime teammate Matt Grace. With the release, the Nats owe the lefty just one-sixth of his agreed-upon salary for 2019.

Roster Notes: Padres, Paddack, Rangers, Cubs, Scahill

By TC Zencka | March 9, 2019 at 11:16am CDT

The Padres #5 ranked prospect per MLB.com (#34 overall) is angling to get the nod on Opening Day, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. Chris Paddack threw four scoreless innings, which included a stretch in which he struck out five consecutive Oakland A’s batters in his most recent spring start. Last season, Paddack made seven starts in Double-A after cruising through High-A, where he notched an eye-popping 14.3 K/9 versus 0.7 BB/9 in 52 1/3 innings. Double-A didn’t slow him much, going 3-2 with a 1.91 ERA in 7 starts, 8.8 K/9 to 1.0 BB/9. Still, from Double-A to an Opening Day start would be quite the jump for the 23-year-old, just a year removed from missing all of 2017 to Tommy John surgery. The competition is fairly wide open, however, as the Padres, by design, brought very little in the way of established talent to camp. Since the offseason departures of veterans Clayton Richard (traded to Blue Jays) and Tyson Ross (signed with Tigers), Robbie Erlin boasts the most experience in the group, and he’s not even a lock to make the rotation. Fellow southpaws Joey Lucchesi and Eric Lauer each have a shot to get the Opening Day nod, as well. Let’s check in on the Rangers’ and Cubs’ camps as teams begin to whittle their spring rosters…

The Rangers culled their number of players in camp to 60. Pitchers Taylor Guerrieri, Michael Tonkin, Miguel Del Pozo and Brady Feigl were all assigned to minor league camp, per the Rangers’ executive VP of communications John Blake (via Twitter). Guerrieri, 26, joined the Rangers after making his major league debut last season with the Blue Jays. A former first round pick of the Rays, he was a starter in the minor leagues until missing most of the 2017 season due to injury. Toronto claimed him off waivers before last season, where started 7 games in Triple-A before appearing 9 times out of the Blue Jays pen, pitching to a 5.02 FIP in a small-sample 9 2/3 big league innings. Tonkin, 29, appeared in parts of five seasons for the Twins from 2013 to 2017 with a 4.57 FIP across 141 games. Del Pozo, 26, reached as far as Double-A in the Marlins system before joining the Rangers as a non-roster invitee. While Feigl, 28, is back in the Rangers system where he has pitched for the past two seasons.
The Cubs made a number of roster moves today, with promising righties Adbert Alzolay and Jen-Ho Tseng being optioned to Triple-A, while Justin Steele and Oscar De La Cruz were sent to Double-A, per the Athletic’s Patrick Mooney (Twitter links). Also on the move, Duncan Robinson, Ian Clarkin, Colin Rea, Ian Rice, Charcer Burks and Jacob Hannemann are being moved to minor league camp (Twitter link). Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter) adds Craig Brooks, Alberto Baldonado and Evan Marzilli to the list of players headed to minor league camp. The Cubs spring roster has now been cut to 54.
Rob Scahill, meanwhile, was released outright by the Cubs, per Mooney (via Twitter). Scahill has pitched at the big league level for parts of seven seasons running, topping out at 31 appearances in 2016 spread between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh. In total, the 32-year-old boasts a career 3.95 ERA (4.67 FIP) in 124 games for Rockies, Pirates, Brewers and White Sox.

Athletics’ Chris Herrmann Undergoes Successful Knee Surgery

By Steve Adams and TC Zencka | March 9, 2019 at 10:28am CDT

TODAY: Herrmann’s surgery was a success. Per a team release, “The surgery was performed by Dr. Douglas Freedberg and involved a chondroplasty procedure to Herrmann’s central trochlea of his right knee as well as cleaning up loose bodies in the knee.” He is set to be reevaluated sometime in the coming couple of weeks.

March 6: Athletics catcher Chris Herrmann is headed for arthroscopic surgery on his right knee, manager Bob Melvin and trainer Nick Paparesta revealed to reporters Wednesday (Twitter links via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). There’s no timetable for Herrmann’s return at present, as the extent of the damage won’t be fully clear until doctors are performing the operation. What’s currently known is that Herrmann requires a cartilage cleanup, the removal of some bone spurs and the repair of a fissure in the problematic knee.

The Herrmann injury likely ensures that non-roster invitee Nick Hundley will make the Opening Day roster alongside holdover Josh Phegley. Top prospect Sean Murphy could conceivably have been an option, though Slusser tweets that the organization doesn’t want to rush him at this point. The 24-year-old Murphy has logged just one full season in Double-A and only three games of Triple-A ball to this point in his career, so it’s not a surprise that the organization feels he’s in need of continued development. If the A’s choose to look outside the organization, defensive standout Martin Maldonado remains unsigned and could certainly give the Oakland organization an experienced, glove-first option behind the dish.

Herrmann, 31, signed a one-year, $1MM contract with the Athletics back in early December after being non-tendered by the division-rival Astros, who’d previously claimed him off waivers from the Mariners. Last season was a productive one for Herrmann with Seattle — albeit in a small sample at the MLB level. In 87 trips to the plate as a Mariner, he slashed .237/.322/.421 with two homers, four doubles and a pair of triples. While he’s had some brief flashes of success in the Majors — most notably with the D-backs in 2016 — Herrmann’s career .205/.282/.351 batting line in 898 PAs between Minnesota, Arizona and Seattle doesn’t exactly stand out.

Both Herrmann and Phegley are out of minor league options, so once Herrmann is healthy, the A’s will need to make a decision as to how to proceed with their catching corps, as it’s highly unlikely that Oakland would look to carry that pairing and Hundley for a significant period of time. Beyond that, Murphy may well force his way onto the big league roster in 2019, which will only add another layer to the decision.

Mets Release Infielder T.J. Rivera

By TC Zencka | March 9, 2019 at 10:05am CDT

The Mets released infielder T.J. Rivera, per Newsday’s Tim Healey (via Twitter). Rivera was attempting to work his way back from Tommy John surgery in September of 2017, but was struggling to get back to full strength. He played parts of two seasons with the Mets after making his debut in 2016.

Rivera, 30, hasn’t played in the big leagues since July of 2017 when he was placed on the injured list with a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow. He came back in July of last season for a 6 game rehab stint, collecting three singles and a double in twenty-two at-bats in the minor leagues, but he did not see any game action after that. His release comes after a setback in his elbow recovery, through GM Brodie Van Wagenen also points to the infield depth both at the major and minor league levels as cause for his release, per the New York Post’s Mike Puma (via Twitter).

Across his two seasons with the Mets, Rivera hit .304/.335/.445 in 344 plate appearances. He split his time fairly evenly between second, third and first base, though he also handled a few innings in left. His release doesn’t come as a total surprise, as Van Wagenen is correct in that the Mets are fairly flush with this type of player. Still, with Jed Lowrie and Todd Frazier both getting banged up this spring, and there being at least a modicum of uncertainty around J.D. Davis’ ability to produce consistently at third, it’s a shame to see Rivera unable to get healthy enough to compete for at-bats. As is, Adeiny Hechavarria and Jeff McNeil are both capable of backing up multiple infield positions, while Dilson Herrera, Gavin Cecchini, Arismendy Alcantara, Luis Guillorme and a few others are all competing to crack the Opening Day roster.

Pirates Demote Top Prospect Mitch Keller, 7 Others

By TC Zencka | March 9, 2019 at 9:19am CDT

The Pirates announced a number of roster moves today, optioning pitcher Mitch Keller, JT Brubaker and Luis Escobar to Triple-A Indianapolis. Pitchers Dario Agrazal, Elvis Escobar, Eduardo Vera, Blake Weiman, as well as catcher Jason Delay were re-assigned to minor league camp.

Keller, 23, is the biggest name of the bunch, the Pirates top prospect and the #19 prospect overall according to MLB.com’s rankings. GM Neil Huntington provided commentary on the demoted pitchers to reporters today, including Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. On Keller, he said (via Brink’s Twitter), “He’s not the first or the last guy to have some struggles in spring training, but what’s really encouraging is his attitude about it going out. It’s not what he wanted, it’s not what we expected, but he’s ready to tackle it head-on.” Keller surrendered 10 earned runs in only 4 innings of work this spring, including 3 home runs. He struck out only one batter out of the twenty-five faced.

On Brubaker, 25, Huntington said (Twitter link), “J.T.’s been a guy for about four years now that we’ve liked much more than kind of the external noise is on him.” Brubaker put together a strong showing in Double-A and Triple-A last season, earning an overall 10-6 record with 2.81 ERA in 154 innings.

After this first round of roster moves, the Pirates big-league camp is down to 54 players, including 18 non-roster invites.

Royals Trade Donnie Dewees To Cubs For Stephen Ridings

By TC Zencka | March 9, 2019 at 8:28am CDT

The Royals have acquired right-handed pitcher Stephen Ridings from the Cubs in exchange for Donnie Dewees, the team announced (via Twitter).

Ridings, 23, was an 8th round draft pick of the Cubs in 2016. Last season for the Eugene Emeralds, the Cubs short season A-ball club, he went 3-3 with a 4.15 ERA in 34 2/3 innings across 22 relief appearances. In his short professional career, the 6’8″ product of Haverford College has shown the classic power-pitcher profile, missing bats (11.4 K/9) while struggling with command at times (3.9 BB/9).

The Royals originally acquired Dewees from the Cubs in February of 2017 in exchange for right-hander Alec Mills. Currently competing for a spot in the Cubs bullpen, Mills produced solid small-sample results for the Cubs in a swing role last season, a role he’s angling to reprise in 2019 – though he’s likely ticketed for the Triple-A rotation at least to start the season. In two starts and five relief appearances for the Cubs in 2018, Mills, 27, earned a 4.00 ERA in 18 innings at the big league level.

Dewees returns to for his second stint with the Cubs after struggling to hit for much power in the Royals system. The lefty outfielder hit .258/.310/.383 in Double-A and Triple-A last season. The Cubs selected him in the 2nd round in the 2015 draft, topping out in Single-A with a strong .282/.337/.414 with 15 doubles, 12 triples, and 3 home runs in the season before the Cubs sent him to KC.

He can capably handle all three outfield positions, though without a standout offensive skill, the 25-year-old lefty will probably begin the year in Triple-A. He’ll have a chance to crack the 25-man roster, as the Cubs don’t have a natural 5th outfielder on the roster. They are, however, flush with outfield options, as Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ, Jason Heyward, Albert Almora Jr., Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant, David Bote, and Daniel Descalso have all seen time in the outfield. Johnny Field, Mark Zagunis, Jacob Hannemann, and Jim Adduci fill out the next tier of outfielders that will compete with Dewees in his second stint with the Cubs.

NL East Notes: Kimbrel, Conforto, Braves Pitching

By Jeff Todd | March 9, 2019 at 12:55am CDT

The Nationals and Braves “are not ’in’ on” free agent closer Craig Kimbrel, according to Jim Bowden of The Athletic (via Twitter). Whether that’s a truly definitive statement on those two clubs’ engagement with Kimbrel isn’t clear; each has been linked (his former team in Atlanta, especially) over the course of the winter and would surely be interested at the right price. The arms race in the NL East has continued all offseason long and has not really halted with the start of Spring Training. Financial considerations make several teams in the division conceivable suitors for Kimbrel, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams examined in depth.

Historical Market Price Points For Dallas Keuchel

By Jeff Todd | March 8, 2019 at 11:31pm CDT

By this point, the narrative on Dallas Keuchel is familiar to all: he’s a former Cy Young winner who recently turned 31. He wasn’t at his best last year, but was one of only 13 pitchers to top 200 frames in 2018 and turned in a productive 3.74 ERA. Statcast felt he was actually a bit unlucky, crediting him with a .290 xwOBA-against that lagged the observed .306 wOBA-against.

Keuchel has always thrived on grounders, weak contact, and low walk rates, with middling velocity and generally unexceptional swinging-strike capabilities. At times in the past, Keuchel has been a true groundball monster (he was at a good but not great 53.7% last year) and has generated more strikeouts (up to 23.7% in 2015). While the theory has been proffered recently that Keuchel’s lack of velo is a major factor, it actually seems mostly encouraging that he throws just as hard as ever and that his velocity trended up over the course of the 2018 season. It seems fair to say he’s mostly the same type of pitcher, but not the best version of himself — as you’d probably expect at this age.

We knew all that entering the offseason, of course. It was never questioned that he’d turn down the qualifying offer and not be all that bothered by the draft compensation requirements that attached to his free agency. So how do we explain the apparent value disconnect that has to this point kept Keuchel from signing? Some thought Keuchel’s track record would propel him to a nine-figure contract, perhaps overestimating the allure of his Cy Young past. Reports indicate that agent Scott Boras set out seeking a five or even six-season contract. That level of interest simply hasn’t been there. It’s not altogether surprising. Here at MLBTR, we guessed he’d be capped at a four-year deal — but still anticipated the bidding going over $20MM annually.

Given where things stand, I thought it would be interesting to look at some recent contractual outcomes to see how they relate to Keuchel’s case and the changing free agent market. The takeaway is that Keuchel seems likely to fall somewhere on a spectrum of outcomes that we’ve seen before in generally similar situations.

5+ Year Contracts

If you were making a case for Keuchel to get into that nine-figure range, you wouldn’t start with Patrick Corbin, who did so earlier this winter. The much younger lefty was just in a different situation. But you could look to the not-so-distant past and see Yu Darvish, who got six and $126MM last winter despite being about half a year older than Keuchel is now. The difference? Darvish has long carried premium K/BB numbers and was seen as an elite talent. He was also the best pitcher and arguably the best free agent in his class. His sixth year didn’t add much in the way of guaranteed money, so much as it spread the costs and luxury tax hit.

There’s a history of lengthy deals before that, as well. There was quite a run on starters in the winter of 2015-16 — even at the second tier of the market. Jordan Zimmermann ($110MM), Jeff Samardzija ($90MM), Mike Leake ($80MM), Wei-Yin Chen ($80MM) and Ian Kennedy ($70MM) all got five-year contracts while the three best hurlers took down a combined haul of over half a billion dollars.

Those halcyon days are over, needless to say. It probably doesn’t help that every one of those contracts seems regrettable in retrospect. Getting to that five-year range just never seemed particularly plausible for Keuchel, given his age, unless perhaps he gave away the last season for a low cost that drove down the deal’s AAV.

4-Year Deals

Remember that useful mid-rotation starter contract? You know, the standard mid-rotation jam? Ervin Santana ended up getting the last of these, at $54MM in the ’14-’15 winter, but it was the same essential form as the contracts inked by Brandon McCarthy, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, and Edwin Jackson.

Keuchel seemed another tier up … much like, say, James Shields did when he went for $75MM over four years while entering his age-33 season. That deal is a few years out of date and things have changed. But you’d also expect salaries to rise and for that sort of contract to serve as something of a floor.

And it turns out there is at least one other four-year deal that perhaps provides a ray of hope for Keuchel. Alex Cobb somehow pulled down a $57MM guarantee over four years late last March. Was that a throwback to the aforementioned contract archetype? A reminder that this sort of thing is still possible — that maybe, just maybe, Keuchel can still get a deal of this type (with a boost for his superior track record)? Tough to say for sure, though it’s telling that the O’s have since last winter become the latest team to swap in an analytically driven front office of the kind that seems rather unlikely to swing such a bargain.

3-Year Scenarios

Even analytically informed front offices are willing to plunk down cash on pitchers. It’s just that they tend to like to do so on shorter terms. The Dodgers did the above-cited deal with McCarthy. They’ve otherwise kept it to three years. Clayton Kershaw ($93MM), Rich Hill ($48MM), and Scott Kazmir ($48MM) all were brought aboard with sizable salaries over a three-year term. Kershaw’s track record is obviously far superior, but there are quite a few parallels to Keuchel’s case. The hurlers are the same age and Kershaw’s health problems and velocity declines marred his outlook.

That Kershaw pact seems especially notable when you look at another prominent hurler who recently ended up with a three-year contract. Jake Arrieta was a year older than Keuchel this time last winter. He seemed to have a higher anticipated annual salary after some years of true dominance — we guessed four years and $100MM — but otherwise was in a fairly similar situation to that of Keuchel. Arrieta ended up landing at three years and $75MM in a deal that also includes a voidable opt-out, which could allow Arrieta a chance to return to the open market after the second year of the deal. if the Phillies won’t expand his guaranteed contract. Perhaps a “swell-opt” of this kind could also help facilitate a pact for Keuchel.

Shorter Agreements

There are examples of big-AAV, two-year deals out there, though in most cases they have gone to older pitchers. Call it the John Lackey deal — his second free agent contract, that is, a two-year, $32MM pact with the Cubs. This winter, J.A. Happ ($34MM) and Charlie Morton ($30MM) landed such contracts. It really does seem odd to imagine Keuchel in this grouping, though. Perhaps he’s similarly valuable on an annual basis, but he’s much younger than the type of hurler that has secured this type of deal.

Indeed, there’s an argument to be made that Keuchel would be better off turning up his nose at any two-year offers. Better to take a one-year pillow deal and head back onto the market next winter if you can’t at least get up to a solid three-year pact. After all, that same sort of short-term, high-AAV arrangement should be available at that point — if not something more, if he enters the winter with a lower asking price off the bat.

Would it really be that unimaginable for Keuchel to settle on a pillow deal? In some ways, yeah, it’s tough to see how that could come to pass. But it wouldn’t be without precedent. Ervin Santana ran up a 3.24 ERA in 211 frames in 2014 and entered the ensuing offseason at 31 years of age. He reputedly sought too big a deal early on and then rejected lower-AAV, mid-range deals later in the winter. He ended up securing a one-year, $14.1MM contract — the exact value of the qualifying offer he had previously rejected — when the Braves finally ponied up because their rotation fell apart in camp. That’s the most directly relevant case to Keuchel’s, though others have ended up in similar situations. Jackson, for instance, settled for $11MM with the Nationals in 2011-12. Both Santana and Jackson ended up going back onto the open market in the ensuing winter and securing one of the mid-rotation, four-year deals cited above.

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

By TC Zencka | March 8, 2019 at 9:39pm CDT

This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

After the worst season in franchise history, the Orioles’ only must-have for the winter was new organizational leaders.

Major League Signings

Nate Karns, RHP: One year, $800K, up to $200K more in incentives
Total spend: $800K

Trades and Claims

Selected SS Richie Martin from A’s with 1st overall pick in Rule 5 Draft
Acquired IF Drew Jackson from Phillies for international signing bonus pool money after he was selected from Dodgers with 11th overall pick in Rule 5 Draft
Acquired outfielder Dwight Smith Jr. from Blue Jays for $500K in international signing bonus availability
Selected RHP Taylor Grover from Reds with 1st overall pick of Triple-A phase of Rule 5 Draft
Claimed IF Jack Reinheimer off waivers from Rangers
Claimed 3B Rio Ruiz off waivers from Dodgers
Claimed IF Hanser Alberto off waivers from Giants (first, from the Yankees)
Claimed LHP Josh Osich off waivers from Giants (later designated for assignment)

Notable Minor League Signings

Alcides Escobar, Eric Young Jr., Jesus Sucre, Carlos Perez, Christopher Bostick, Zach Vincej, Omar Bencomo, Gregory Infante, Josh Lucas, Jace Peterson, Bo Schultz

Notable Losses

Adam Jones (still unsigned), Caleb Joseph, Tim Beckham, Lucas Luetge, Pedro Alvarez, Colby Rasmus (still unsigned)

[Baltimore Orioles Depth Chart] [Baltimore Orioles Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

The Orioles as we’ve known them are no longer. General manager Dan Duquette – hired in 2011 to replace Andy McPhail – is gone. Manager Buck Showalter – hired after the All-Star break in 2010 – is gone. Franchise cornerstone Manny Machado – drafted in 2010, in the majors since 2012 – plays in San Diego now. Adam Jones’ tenure was longer than all of those departees; after 11 seasons in Baltimore, he, too, has (likely) played his last game as an Oriole. Four cornerstones from the past eight-or-so seasons, all jettisoned during a four-month period between July 18th and November 3rd – so it’s understandable if those in Baltimore are still feeling a little shell-shocked.

The GM seat remained empty for a curious-long while, but in mid-November Mike Elias finally arrived from Houston. By all accounts, Elias is a good hire, and there’s no reason to think he won’t accomplish at least their infrastructural goals: modernize front office processes, broaden the reach of player acquisition efforts and get the analytics department up to code. Four weeks in, Elias checked the first box of his offseason to-do by hiring Joe Maddon’s bench coach Brandon Hyde as the 20th manager in franchise history. In poaching Elias (from the Astros) and Hyde (from the Cubs), the Orioles now boast a leadership tandem – not coincidentally – from the two most recognizably-successful rebuilding efforts of the last decade.

In terms of player personnel, there really wasn’t much to be done at the outset of Elias’s tenure. With no hope of contending in the near future, filling out roster holes was not a terribly consequential undertaking. The club unsurprisingly pursued a mix of interesting younger players and cheap but solid veteran types to bolster an existing mix that still includes several high-priced holdovers.

If you like underdogs, this shortstop competition is a barnburner: two Rule 5 picks trying to make the jump from Double-A (Richie Martin, Drew Jackson), while minor league signee Alcides Escobar sets the bar. It’s been three years since Escobar produced more than 1 WAR over a season, and he’s never-not-once produced an even league-average wRC+, but he’s a “been-through-the-trenches” guy, he runs the bases well, and he generally won’t fumble the ball when it’s hit right at him. Eric Young Jr. is the best bet of the other minor league signees crack the roster, and he’s off to a good start this spring as he competes for a bench role with Joey Rickard and a slew of IF/OF opportunists like Rio Ruiz, Jackson, Jace Peterson, Steve Wilkerson, Christopher Bostick and Anthony Santander.

On the pitching side, Karns was a nice addition for a rotation lacking depth behind Dylan Bundy, Andrew Cashner, and Alex Cobb. Karns hasn’t pitched in a year-and-a-half, but last we saw him he looked good for the 2017 Royals, striking out 10.13 batter per nine while pitching to a 4.17 ERA (4.48 FIP, 3.71 xFIP). The Orioles get him for $800K this year – the only guaranteed salary the team handed out – and he’s under team control for 2020, making this a pretty good buy for Baltimore.

Questions Remaining

With new leadership in place, the encyclopedic reshaping of the Orioles begins, but there are questions in the short-term that loom even larger (in urgency, if not importance). For instance, how many more chances are they willing to give Chris Davis to get within shouting distance of league-average before donating his roster spot to a youth? Four seasons at $23MM a pop is a lot to eat, but there is a sunk cost threshold, and after a .168/.243/.296 -2.8 rWAR season in 2018, that line can’t be far off.

It seems almost silly at this point to ask whether Davis could regain enough of his former on-field value to allow the team to shed some of his remaining contract. Perhaps that’s still possible, though. And the O’s can hope more realistically that some other players will perform well enough to dump salary during or after the season to come. Bundy, Cashner, and Cobb could all be of mid-season interest. Jonathan Villar and Mark Trumbo might end up holding some appeal. And relievers Mychal Givens and Richard Bleier (if he can get back to health) could be fairly significant assets. There’s not a primo trade piece in the bunch, save maybe Givens, but it’s fair to wonder how long Elias will wait before stripping this team for parts.

Otherwise, the open questions facing this roster are largely those you’d expect from a team in this position. The roster is loaded with players who have yet to establish themselves fully (if at all) in the majors. In most cases, it’s understandable that the organization has decided to allow some space for young players to sink or swim. There’s an argument to be made, though, that more could have been done in the rotation — particularly since Karns has a checkered recent health history.

Mike Wright Jr. looks poised to snag a starting spot, but it’s a little curious the O’s didn’t further explore the bargain bin, especially given their lack of near-term upside arms. David Hess, Yefry Ramirez, John Means, Josh Rogers and Jimmy Yacabonis will happily take the innings, but there’s value even in a rebuild to having vets around. Bounceback candidates such as Drew Pomeranz may have shied away from Camden Yards, but giving a minimal guarantee to someone like Ervin Santana (who settled for a minors deal) might have made sense. Even now, James Shields, Bartolo Colon, former Orioles Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez, and others are all just a phone call away.

It would be hard to blame Elias and his staff for seeking some time to evaluate the in-house goods before running out for upgrades that admittedly wouldn’t move the needle. The longer-term questions are of greater importance, and they relate to roster building strategy. The Orioles’ lack of existing international relationships hampered Elias’ ability to put to use their approximately $6MM in international bonus pool money, which they’ve instead doled out piecemeal through trades with the Twins, Phillies, Rangers, and Blue Jays. The development of those overseas connections will be worth tracking in the long-term, while a push to attain Cuban shortstop Yolbert Sanchez would be a nice short-term success were Elias to get him. An early decision point will come in June, when the Orioles make the first overall selection in the amateur draft. Whether it’s high school shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman or someone else, this is the first major test that Elias and company need to ace.

What to Expect in ’19

On the field, these Orioles aren’t likely to dent the 60+ game gap between themselves and the AL East leaders. Fangraphs projects only the Marlins to finish with a worse record, though they’re not exactly bullish on the Orioles either, pegged for 99 losses and a league-worst run prevention effort. There’s a decent collection of position player prospects who are or soon will be knocking at the MLB door – Yusniel Diaz, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays, Ryan McKenna – but there’s absolutely no rush. In the meantime, Cedric Mullins, Richie Martin, Chance Sisco, Drew Jackson and DJ Stewart should have plenty of leeway to grind through any growing pains. It’ll be a year of tryouts as Hyde hammers the fundamentals and dreams of a future roster filled with athletic, positionally-flexible dirt dogs. Brass tacks: the Orioles are going to lose a lot of baseball games in 2019. Maybe not 115, but the over-under for 2020 draft position should be no higher than 1.5.

How would you grade their offseason? (Link for app users.)

How Would You Grade The Orioles' Offseason?

F 34.16% (1,471 votes)

D 21.48% (925 votes)

C 18.56% (799 votes)

B 15.88% (684 votes)

A 9.92% (427 votes)

Total Votes: 4,306

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