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Past, Present & Future: American League Closer Turnover

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By the end of the 2017 season, the list of pitchers closing out games for their respective teams included Matt Belisle, Alex Claudio, Juan Minaya and Mike Minor. Three of them were without a career save coming into the season—Belisle had five in 13 MLB seasons—and none had been expected to fill a significant late-inning bullpen role. By way of injuries, trades or ineffectiveness from those ahead of them on the depth chart, they were given a chance to record the final out in a close win and proved themselves capable.

Things haven’t changed much this year. Raise your hand if you thought Wily Peralta would have one save in 2018. He has 13! Of the 15 American League teams, only four currently have a closer situation that mirrors what they had on Opening Day. When it comes to closers, uncertainty is the only certainty. And that’s why Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman are Hall of Famers and the relief pitchers who will join them in Cooperstown in the future are few and far between.

Here’s a look back at each American League team’s closer situation on Opening Day versus where they are now and where they will be as they head into the offseason. (Click HERE to view the National League.)

[Related: MLB closer depth chart at Roster Resource]

Baltimore Orioles | Orioles Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Committee — Brad Brach, Darren O’Day, Mychal Givens
September 2018: Mychal Givens

Future Outlook: Brach got the majority of the committee’s save chances prior to Zach Britton reclaiming the job shortly after returning from the disabled list in late June. Soon after, Givens was the last man standing following a series of July trades (Brach to the Braves; Britton to the Yankees). O’Day, meanwhile, suffered a season-ending hamstring surgery and was later traded to Atlanta in a separate deal.

A valuable setup man for most of the past three seasons, Givens has done a fine job since taking over ninth-inning duties. In his last 19 appearances, he has a 2.18 ERA and eight saves in 10 chances. With so many holes to fill on the roster, upgrading at the closer position is probably low on the Orioles’ priority list. Givens, therefore, likely enters 2019 with the job — if he isn’t traded himself this offseason as the O’s continue their rebuilding efforts.

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Boston Red Sox | Red Sox Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Craig Kimbrel
September 2018: Craig Kimbrel

Future Outlook: Kimbrel, who recently became the fourth pitcher in MLB history to record at least 40 saves in five different seasons, has been a huge part of Boston’s historic season. As a free agent following the 2018 campaign, the 30-year-old will command a contract that rivals the highest-paid relievers in the game. Can the Red Sox afford to let him walk? Just in case he does, they’ll have to plan accordingly.

With Joe Kelly also set to become a free agent, Matt Barnes is the logical choice to inherit the closer’s gig. He’s earned the opportunity with a 3.28 ERA and 25 holds while serving as the primary setup man on the best team in baseball. The 28-year-old also has an impressive 13.9 K/9 in 60.1 innings of work, an increase from 10.7 K/9 in ’17 and 9.6 K/9 in ’16. The only question is whether a team capable of winning over 100 games will entrust the role to someone with two career saves. If Kimbrel signs elsewhere, it seems likely that the Sox would pursue alternatives in free agency and/or trades.

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Chicago White Sox | White Sox Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Joakim Soria
September 2018: Committee — Nate Jones, Jace Fry, Minaya, etc.

Future Outlook: Soria was as good as he’d been in years, posting a 2.56 ERA with 16 saves and 11.4 K/9 in 40 appearances. The White Sox cashed in by sending him to the Brewers for two pitching prospects in late July. Since then, they’ve handed off the closer’s job to a committee that included just about any relief pitcher on their active roster—seven different pitchers have recorded saves since the Soria trade.

The next step for the rebuilding White Sox is to put together a roster that can, at the very least, be a .500 team and potential playoff contender. Having a reliable closer would be an important part of that plan. Jones looks the part, but he’s missed most of the last two seasons recovering from elbow surgery and still might not be ready to take on the workload of a primary closer. A healthy Zack Burdi, the team’s first-round draft pick in 2016 and one time “closer of the future,” could also be in the mix at some point, though he spent 2018 recovering from Tommy John surgery. They’ll likely play it safe, however, and add at least one veteran with closing experience this offseason.

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Cleveland Indians | Indians Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Cody Allen
September 2018: Co-Closers – Allen and Brad Hand

Future Outlook: Allen has a lot of mileage on his arm, averaging 71 relief appearances per season since 2013, and it’s showed at times during the current season. With Andrew Miller on the disabled list and Allen’s ERA creeping up near 5.00, the Indians’ acquisition of Brad Hand from the Padres on July 19th was a no-brainer.

Not only has it helped them down the stretch—Hand has a 2.45 ERA and eight saves while Allen has 10 consecutive scoreless appearances—it also gives the Indians a very good closer option for 2019. Allen and Miller are both headed for free agency while the 28-year-old Hand is under contract through 2021. The job should be his moving forward.

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Detroit Tigers | Tigers Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Shane Greene
September 2018: Shane Greene

Future Outlook: With a 5.20 ERA and six blown saves in 37 chances, Greene is probably lucky to have held on to the job for the entire season. But on a rebuilding Tigers team, who is going to close out games for them is the least of their worries. With that said, Greene probably fits best as a setup man. Even if they don’t upgrade this offseason, All-Star Joe Jimenez (11.2 K/9, 22 holds, 3 saves, 2.88 FIP) could supplant Greene in 2019.

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Houston Astros | Astros Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Co-Closers – Chris Devenski and Ken Giles
September 2018: Roberto Osuna

Future Outlook: Despite a drop in strikeout rate—8.0 K/9 in ’18; 11.7 K/9 in ’17—Osuna has continued to perform at a high level amid abuse allegations that led to a 75-game suspension under MLB’s domestic abuse policy. The Astros still decided to acquire him in a trade with the Jays despite the ongoing investigation.

Barring any struggles during the team’s playoff run — he’s postseason eligible in spite of that suspension — or any further off-the-field troubles, the 23-year-old Osuna seems likely to enter 2019 as the Astros’ closer. He’s under club control through the 2020 season.

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Kansas City Royals | Royals Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Kelvin Herrera
September 2018: Wily Peralta

Future Outlook: Soon after Herrera was traded to Washington in mid-June, Peralta emerged from the closer committee to become one of the unlikeliest ninth-inning success stories of 2018. It hasn’t always been pretty, but the 29-year-old has 13 saves in 13 chances and a 9.5 K/9 rate.

After getting booted from the Brewers’ rotation last May, he had a disastrous 11-appearance stint as a relief pitcher (17 1/3 innings, 23 ER, 28 H, 15 BB) before getting designated for assignment in late July. He signed a Major League deal with Kansas City this offseason, only to be designated for assignment again and outrighted to Triple-A. He returned to the Majors one day before the Herrera trade and picked up his first MLB save eight days later.

Peralta has a $3MM club option in 2019, which could very well be exercised. Even if it’s not, he’s remain under team control for one more season via arbitration. While he’s been better than anyone could’ve anticipated in his current role, his 22 walks in 31 1/3 innings serve as a red flag that will likely keep the Royals from locking him into the job next season without some form of competition.

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Los Angeles Angels | Angels Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Keynan Middleton
September 2018: Ty Buttrey

Future Outlook: Blake Parker, who finished 2017 as the closer, picked up the team’s first save of 2018 after finishing last season in the role. But it was Middleton who got the call for the next six save chances, all successful, making it clear that he was manager Mike Scioscia’s preferred choice in the ninth inning. A few weeks later, however, Middleton had undergone season-ending Tommy John surgery and it was back to the drawing board for the Angels.

Parker got the majority of save chances with Middleton out. And as was the case in 2017, he got the job done with a 3.21 ERA and 13 saves in 16 chances from May 14th—the day after Middleton’s last game— through September 3rd. But Buttrey, acquired from the Red Sox in the July deal for Ian Kinsler, is getting a chance to show what he can do as of late. In six appearances from September 7th through September 18th, the 25-year-old tossed seven scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts and four saves. He has failed to convert his last two save chances, though.

Regardless, there probably wasn’t enough time for Buttrey to seal the job for 2019. He will be a candidate alongside Parker, though, unless the Angels acquire a closer this offseason.

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Minnesota Twins | Twins Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Fernando Rodney
September 2018: Trevor Hildenberger

Future Outlook: After saving 25 games and solidifying the ninth inning for Minnesota over the first four months of the season, Rodney was traded to Oakland in August. Ryan Pressly, who would’ve been the logical choice to succeed him, was traded to Houston in late July. A closer committee appeared likely, but Hildenberger has been the go-to guy with seven saves in eight chances since Rodney’s departure. Taylor Rogers, while serving mostly in a setup role, has not allowed a run over his last 23 2/3 innings while logging two saves and 11 holds over that span.

Between Hildenberger, Rogers, Addison Reed and Trevor May, who has five walks and 31 strikeouts in 23 innings in his first season since Tommy John surgery, the Twins have some decent late-inning options for 2019. It’s probably not enough to keep them away from the offseason closer’s market, though.

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New York Yankees | Yankees Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Aroldis Chapman
September 2018: Co-Closers – Zach Britton and Dellin Betances

Future Outlook: Chapman might not have enough time to reclaim the closer’s job before the end of the regular season—he returned from the disabled list last Wednesday—or even the playoffs for that matter. But there’s no reason to think a change is on the horizon in 2019. The 30-year-old lefty, who is 31-for-33 in save opportunities and is striking out 16.1 batters per nine innings, will be entering year three of a five-year, $85MM contract.

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Oakland Athletics | Athletics Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Blake Treinen
September 2018: Blake Treinen

Future Outlook: Treinen has been one of the breakout stars in 2018, saving 37 games while posting an 0.80 ERA and striking out 11.1 batters per nine innings for a playoff-bound A’s team. The 30-year-old is still under team control for two more seasons, although he’s in line for a significant raise from the $2.15MM he made in ’18. Barring injury, there’s no doubt that he’ll retain the job in 2019.

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Seattle Mariners | Mariners Depth Chart 

Opening Day 2018: Edwin Diaz 
September 2018: Edwin Diaz

Future Outlook: No other closer, arguably, has contributed more to his team’s success than the 24-year-old Diaz, who has 14 more saves (56) than any other pitcher in baseball and 13 more save chances (60). The Mariners play a lot of close ballgames—they are 36-21 in one-run games—and Diaz rarely gives his opponent a chance in the ninth inning. He has held his opponent scoreless in 59 of his 71 appearances and hitless in 44. He also has 41 multi-strikeout games.

The 24-year-old is going to get paid once he reaches arbitration, although he could fall just short during the upcoming offseason. The Super Two cutoff has not fallen under 2.122 (two years, 122 days) since 2009. Diaz will be one day shy of that total.

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Tampa Bay Rays | Rays Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Alex Colome
September 2018: Co-Closers – Sergio Romo/Jose Alvarado

Future Outlook: When Colome was traded to Seattle on May 25th, the Rays were two games under .500 and 10 games out in the division. It’s not clear whether they were throwing in the towel or whether they just had enough confidence in Romo, who had 84 career saves coming into the season, and the remaining group of young arms. In any case, it’s worked out just fine.

Since the trade, the Rays are 64-44 with Romo as the primary closer (3.38 ERA, 23-for-28  in save chances) and Alvarado, a 23-year-old lefty, also playing an integral role (1.98 ERA, 7 saves). Not that you can count on the Rays to do anything conventional like name a closer prior to the season or at any point during the regular season, but Alvarez and the hard-throwing Diego Castillo would be the leading in-house candidates if they did. Tampa Bay could also look to bring Romo back into the fold.

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Texas Rangers | Rangers Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Keone Kela
September 2018: Jose Leclerc

Future Outlook: No relief pitcher has boosted their value more in the second half of the season than Leclerc, who spent the first four months in a setup role. Once Kela was traded to the Pirates on July 31st, it was the 24-year-old Leclerc’s chance to shine. It’s hard to imagine a more convincing way to show that he wouldn’t be relinquishing the job anytime soon.

Aside from converting each of his 11 save opportunities, Leclerc has allowed just two hits and six walks over 17 scoreless innings while striking out 28. The Rangers will look to bolster their bullpen this offseason, but finding a new closer isn’t likely to be on the agenda. Leclerc is controlled through 2022.

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Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Roberto Osuna
September 2018: Ken Giles

Future Outlook: Despite being the primary closer on the World Champion Astros, it was clear  that Giles was not trusted with the game on the line. The trade to Toronto in late July gave the 28-year-old a chance to re-establish himself, out of the spotlight, as a reliable late-inning reliever. So far, so good.

After a few shaky appearances to begin his Blue Jays tenure, Giles has settled into the closer’s role with 1.29 ERA over his past 15 appearances with 12 saves in 12 chances. It might not be enough to prevent the Jays from pursuing another option this winter, but Giles should at least be in the mix.

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POTENTIAL FREE-AGENT CLOSER OPTIONS
Nate Jones (if $4.65MM club option is declined)
Joe Kelly
Craig Kimbrel
Ryan Madson
Andrew Miller
Fernando Rodney (if $4.25MM club option is declined)
Sergio Romo
Joakim Soria (if $10MM mutual option is declined)

Phillies Notes: Santana, Franco, Hoskins, Eickhoff

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The Phillies have started Carlos Santana at third base 10 times down the stretch and received a total of 70 innings of play from him there, and Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia explores the possibility of Santana shifting to the hot corner on a full-time basis in 2019. Doing so would allow the Phils to move Rhys Hoskins from left field back to first base, dramatically improving the outfield defense. Santana, 32, tells Salisbury that he’s open to the idea, while manager Gabe Kapler adds that it’s something the Phils will evaluate after the season. Philadelphia’s expected run at Manny Machado figures to have an impact on their left-side infield alignment, and Salisbury speculates that the team could again explore the trade market for Maikel Franco this offseason.

Defensive metrics have actually given a favorable review to Santana’s minuscule sample of innings, but it still seems unlikely that he’d turn in quality results over a full season. I’d add, however, that he’d be replacing another below-average defender in Franco; if the Phillies believe the difference between Franco and Santana at third base is more or less negligible, then they could overwhelmingly bolster the rest of their defense by moving Hoskins to first base in favor of an average or better defender in left.

More out of Philly…

  • Speaking of Hoskins, the 25-year-old chatted with The Athletic’s Matt Gelb about his recent decision to hire agent Scott Boras (subscription required). Part of the thinking, per Hoskins, was actually about his desire to improve his defense in the outfield. Gelb notes that Boras has 10 trainers and a pair of fitness facilities, which appealed to Hoskins as he seeks to improve his performance in the outfield. “There’s only so many different drills you can do,” said Hoskins. “Jump rope, ladder, whatever. But some guys just have a different way of communicating that or they focus on different things within the movement.” He added that he heard “nothing but good things” from the players he spoke to about using Boras’ trainers. Gelb writes that Boras has expressed an openness to discussing a contract extension for Hoskins this offseason, though historically his clients have typically not gone that route.
  • It’s been an injury-ruined season for Jerad Eickhoff, but Kapler told reporters that he’s a candidate to start one of the final games of the season after rejoining the team as a reliever earlier this month (link via Matt Breen the Philadelphia Daily News). Eickhoff met with numerous specialists to evaluate nerve damage that was leading to numbness in his hands this summer and, at one point when doctors were having a difficult time making a diagnosis, wondered whether his career could be in jeopardy. “I don’t know if there’s a guy that the clubhouse pulls more for than Jerad Eickhoff,” said Kapler. “I think he’s pretty deeply cared for and he worked his butt off to get back to this position.”

Mike Scioscia “Would Like To” Keep Managing Beyond 2018

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In an interview with Terry Smith of KLAA, Angels manager Mike Scioscia stated that he would “like to” continue managing beyond 2018 (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Maria Guardado). As the Angels’ season comes to a close, Scioscia said that he will consult with Angels owner Arte Moreno and general manager Billy Eppler to make a determination on his future:

“I’d like to. We’ll continue to evaluate things this week and I’ll speak with Arte and speak with Billy and kind of come to a decision, but I think that if you love something, you want to continue to keep doing it, and if you can, great, and if it doesn’t happen, so be it. But I love the dugout.”

Scioscia’s status for 2019 has been unclear since reports surfaced earlier in the season that he would not remain with the Angels past this season. Scioscia, however, refuted those reports, calling them “poppycock.” Scioscia has now doubled down on his comments, reiterating that he would prefer to continue in a managerial role with Los Angeles after 2018.

Scioscia, 59, has managed 19 seasons in the Major Leagues, all of them with the Angels. Currently in the final season of a 10-year, $50MM contract signed in 2009, Scioscia’s deal is set to expire at season’s end. However, Scioscia’s comments make it clear that he would be willing to accept an offer from the Angels. While the interest must be mutual if his Angels career is to continue, Moreno has been loyal to Scioscia, who has been the Angels’ only manager since Moreno purchased the team in 2003.

Scioscia has managed to a career record of 1645-1427, a .535 winning percentage. In 2002, his third season with the Angels, Scioscia led the team to a World Series title, the first in franchise history. His teams have reached the postseason seven times, most recently in 2014. A two-time American League Manager of the Year, Scioscia is the winningest manager in Angels history.

Amid the Angels’ recent struggles, having missed out on postseason play in each of the last four seasons, rumors surfaced that Scioscia was expected to step down as the Angels manager after the expiration of his contract. Reports suggested that it was unknown whether Scioscia was interested in managing for a new team if he were to step down. Any uncertainty regarding his motivations has vanished, though, as Scioscia’s most recent comments confirm that he intends to remain in Los Angeles, if possible.

Giants Remove Bobby Evans From GM Role

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7:50pm: Baer said in a conference call tonight that the Giants will search for a new head of baseball operations, meaning Sabean will not be in charge of such decisions moving forward, either (Twitter link via Pavlovic). Baer also stated that the team expects Bochy to return as the manager in 2019 (Twitter link via Schulman).

6:50pm: The Giants announced the move and added that Evans will be “reassigned” to a new role with responsibilities that have yet to be determined. Giants CEO Larry Baer offered the following statement:

“I want to thank Bobby for his tireless work on behalf of the Giants. He played an important role in our team’s success throughout his tenure, which includes three World Series championships, four NL pennants and eight playoff appearances. We look forward to new leadership to continue our historic record of success.”

Sabean will not simply be reprising his role atop the team’s operations hierarchy, it seems, as the press release indicates that he’ll work with Baer to find a replacement for Evans.

“I take great pride in the longstanding continuity of our baseball department,” Sabean said in his own statement. “I want to express my thanks to Bobby for all he has given to the Giants over the past 25 years and for his countless contributions.”

6:15pm: Bobby Evans has been removed from his post as the Giants’ general manager, reports Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. It’s not clear if Evans will remain with the organization in another capacity or look for an opportunity in a new organization, though Schulman adds that he’s expected to be offered another role within the Giants. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area writes that the move is likely to be the first of many in a major front-office shakeup, though Schulman notes that executive vice president Brian Sabean and manager Bruce Bochy are likely to be retained.

Evans has spent more than two decades with the Giants and played an instrumental role in helping to construct the three rosters that won the 2010, 2012 and 2014 World Series during San Francisco’s “even-year” dynasty. At the time, Evans was the assistant general manager to then-GM Sabean, but in 2015 the organization promoted Sabean to executive vice president and bumped Evans up the chain of command another peg.

Things haven’t gone well since, as San Francisco has been burned by big-money free agent signings (Jeff Samardzija, Johnny Cueto, Mark Melancon) while struggling through a pair of losing seasons. The Giants won only 64 games last season but loaded up on veteran additions in the offseason with an eye toward contending in 2018. Trade acquisitions Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria didn’t help the offense in the manner that Evans & Co. had hoped, however. This year’s club did manage to hang around the periphery of contention longer than the 2017 iteration of the Giants — despite myriad injury issues, it should be noted — but ultimately plummeted out of the division race in catastrophic fashion by losing 11 consecutive games.

While the past couple seasons for the Giants have been miserable, Evans should have no trouble finding another opportunity with a different organization if he decides to move on from the Giants. He’s among the game’s most respected executives and would bring a wealth of experience to a new club. It’s worth noting that there is at least one other GM opening that’ll need to be filled, as the Mets are searching for a new head of baseball operations following Sandy Alderson’s departure from the team earlier this summer.

Astros Activate Lance McCullers Jr.

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The Astros announced that right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. has been reinstated from the disabled list. He’d been sidelined since Aug. 5 due to a right elbow injury, but he’ll be active for the season’s final handful of games and for the postseason. Houston also recalled lefty reliever Reymin Guduan for the final stretch of play.

[Related: Houston Astros depth chart]

McCullers, 24, was cruising to arguably the best season of his big league career but hit a rough patch in mid July that saw him surrender 14 runs on 18 hits and a dozen walks in a span of 17 2/3 innings before landing on the disabled list. He’s currently sporting a 3.93 ERA with 9.9 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 through 126 innings. That’s the largest regular-season workload McCullers has tallied at the MLB level to this point in his career, though he tossed 137 innings last year when including his postseason work and a brief minor league rehab assignment. He also logged 155 2/3 innings between the Astros and Triple-A back in 2015.

McCullers will be available for the ’Stros in relief for the time being — a role in which he shined while closing out the final game of last season’s American League Championship Series. If McCullers is to remain in the ’pen for the Astros’ postseason endeavors, Houston can still lean on Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton as rotation options.

As for the 26-year-old Guduan, he’ll give manager A.J. Hinch another southpaw option in matchup situations. He’s yet to find much in the way of big league success, but Guduan did notch a 3.74 ERA and average 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings pitched in 55 1/3 Triple-A frames this year — albeit against an unpalatable average of 5.2 walks per nine innings.

Orioles Select John Means

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The Orioles announced Monday that they’ve selected the contract of left-hander John Means from Triple-A Norfolk. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, Baltimore recalled outfielder Austin Hays and placed him on the Major League 60-day disabled list. Hays underwent ankle surgery earlier this month.

Means, 25, split the 2018 season between Double-A (46 innings) and Triple-A (111 1/3 innings), working to a combined 3.72 ERA with with 7.4 K/9 against just 1.8 BB/9. He’s not considered to be among the organization’s top prospects, but he’d have been Rule 5 eligible this offseason after a solid season in the upper minors. Given the thin state of the team’s pitching depth, the Orioles likely would’ve added him to the 40-man roster this winter anyhow.

[Related: Baltimore Orioles depth chart]

Means has worked almost exclusively as a starter throughout his career since being selected in the 11th round of the 2014 draft, and he’ll quite likely be in the mix for a spot on the big league roster next spring. At present, Dylan Bundy, Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner are the three locks for rotation spots in 2018, health permitting, with Means, Josh Rogers, Luis Ortiz, David Hess, Jimmy Yacabonis and Yefry Ramirez among the names who’ll vie for additional opportunities. It’s also possible that Means could eventually be looked at as a potential bullpen piece; he held left-handed opponents to an awful .209/.246/.312 line in 2018 but yielded a .295/.331/.423 slash to opposing righties.

A Layman Attempts To Calculate WAR: Batting Runs

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As I explained in my August introduction post, I’m going to attempt to calculate FanGraphs WAR accurately for Chris Taylor’s 2017 season, in my own spreadsheet.  To do this, I expect to make heavy use of FanGraphs’ documentation.  I also have to give a big thanks to FanGraphs owner Dave Appelman as well as my sabermetric sage Matt Swartz.  Here’s FanGraphs’ overview of WAR For Position Players.  The basic formula is this:

WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs + Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment + Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win)

This doesn’t look too daunting.  Add up the three different ways a position player can create value, make adjustments for position and league, and put it on the correct scale.  OK, let’s calculate batting runs!

Show of hands, who knows anything about batting runs?  Offhand, I couldn’t tell you how batting runs are tabulated, or what benchmarks for success are.  So batting runs is a stat unto itself that requires a full exploration.  Here’s the batting runs formula:

Batting Runs = wRAA + (lgR/PA – (PF*lgR/PA))*PA + (lgR/PA – (AL or NL non-pitcher wRC/PA))*PA

Huh.  OK, when I look at that formula, the only acronym I’m familiar with is PA, which is plate appearances.  We can all agree that we know what a plate appearance is.

I do not, however, know what wRAA is.  FanGraphs says it stands for Weighted Runs Above Average.  And, well, it has its own formula:

wRAA = ((wOBA – lgwOBA)/wOBA Scale) * PA

It seems that to calculate wRAA, we first need to calculate wOBA.  Now, before I lose you in this sea of acronyms, wOBA is actually useful and fairly easy to understand.  It stands for weighted on-base average.  According to FanGraphs, wOBA “is a rate statistic that attempts to credit a hitter for the value of each outcome (single, double, etc) rather than treating all hits or times on base equally.”  Intuitively, I find wOBA to be a simple and useful offensive statistic.  At MLBTR, we often cite a batter’s “triple slash” line.  Chris Taylor’s triple slash in 2017 was .288 (batting average)/.354 (on-base percentage)/.496 (slugging percentage).  These days, people worry a lot less about batting average, since OBP counts a player’s hits, walks, and hit-by-pitches.  But OBP fails to give a complete picture, since a walk is valued the same as a home run.  That’s why we have slugging percentage, right?  SLG is just total bases divided by at-bats, but it wrongly suggests a home run is worth four times as much as a single or twice as much as a double.

The purpose of that aside was to illustrate that wOBA is indeed a strong foundation for the batting runs component of WAR.  Here’s the wOBA formula for 2017:

wOBA = (0.693×uBB + 0.723×HBP + 0.877×1B + 1.232×2B + 1.552×3B +
1.980×HR) / (AB + BB – IBB + SF + HBP)

In this formula, there are six things a batter can do to create value: draw an unintentional walk, get hit by a pitch, or hit a single, double, triple, or home run.  As I learned from Appelman, and by just playing around with some example numbers, the batter also gets credit for intentional walks, by virtue of those being subtracted in the denominator.

You can see there is a weight assigned to each possibility, like 0.877 for a single or 1.980 for a home run.  These weights change a little bit each year, and can be found here at FanGraphs.  The concept of linear weights is explained well in this FanGraphs article.  There are 24 different base-out states, such as “runner on second with one out” or “bases loaded, nobody out.”  FanGraphs explains, “In order to calculate the run expectancy for that base-out state, we need to find all instances of that base-out state from the entire season (or set of seasons) and find the total number of runs scored from the time that base-out state occurred until the end of the innings in which they occurred. Then we divide by the total number of instances to get the average.”  So if you know that the bases are loaded with nobody out in the year 2017, you should expect 2.32 runs to score.  50 years prior, you would have expected 2.13 runs to score in that situation.

We have 24 different run expectancy numbers, and each plate appearance moves the team from one box to another.  The difference between the two is the run expectancy for that plate appearance.  With this information, we can get the linear weights for each of the six batting outcomes.  This concept dates back well before FanGraphs and is worth exploring.

One thing to note, from Neil Weinberg of FanGraphs: “the inventors of wOBA decided that it would probably be best to scale it to something familiar to make it easier to understand,” so they made the “aesthetic choice” to scale wOBA to on-base percentage.  As we’ll see later in the wRAA calculation, this scaling choice has to be undone to get us back on a run scale.  That seems needlessly convoluted, but I’m probably the only one trying to do this by hand.

In theory, one could create a version of wOBA that doesn’t just include these six positive batting outcomes, but rather every batting outcome.  To quote Weinberg, “If you wanted to, you could build wOBA with more nuanced stats like fly ball outs, ground outs, strikeouts, etc; it would just get more complicated without much added value.”  Well, hold up.  First off, we shouldn’t care about making wOBA more complicated, since (this exercise aside), no one is computing it by hand.  In fact, in a different FanGraphs wOBA explainer, the author says, “OBP or SLG might be easier to calculate with pencil and paper, but wOBA is extremely easy to find and use on our site, meaning any computational costs of moving to wOBA are minuscule.” I agree with that point, and since WAR is already a very complicated stat, why not incorporate the nuances of all batting events into it by using the most advanced wOBA possible?  For example, take two players who have the exact same number of unintentional walks, HBPs, singles, doubles, triples, and home runs.  Say those players each also made 400 outs in a season, but one player made every out by strikeout and the other made every out by flyball.  Wouldn’t the flyball guy be a more valuable hitter?

In response to that question, Dave Appelman pointed me to this link, a seven-year-old Hardball Times article in which JT Jordan re-calculated wOBA with strikeouts included for batters.  Jordan concluded, “The difference is incredibly small. So really, it’s not a big deal to ignore strikeouts when using a context-neutral method like linear weights and wOBA. But it can be done. When all is said and done, we’re talking about a run or two of difference.”  Swartz remarked, “I have never gotten a beat on when sabermetricians deem it okay to call something ’close enough.'”  Bottom line: wOBA could be made a tiny bit more accurate, but the keepers of the stat must feel that there is little added value in incorporating other batting outcomes.

Ultimately, a batter’s wOBA is a strong foundation for calculating his offensive value.  Let’s calculate that number for Chris Taylor.  If we want to cheat, we can just pull up his FanGraphs page to see that his wOBA was .361 in 2017.  We don’t want to cheat, though.

wOBA = (0.693×50 + 0.723×3 + 0.877×88 + 1.232×34 + 1.552×5 + 1.980×21) / (514 + 50 – 0 + 1 + 3)

wOBA = 0.3613

Now, we need to turn wOBA into wRAA.  wRAA is a counting stat that “measures the number of offensive runs a player contributes to their team compared to the average player.”  Here’s the formula again:

wRAA = ((wOBA – lgwOBA)/wOBA Scale) * PA

I feel pretty good about my understanding of wOBA, which required only the number of unintentional walks, hit-by-pitches, singles, doubles, triples, and home runs Taylor hit, as well as the linear weights of each of those events in 2017.  I can understand the league average wOBA as well, which FanGraphs shows was .321 in 2017.  Keep in mind that lgwOBA does not refer to the National and American Leagues; it refers to all of MLB for that year.

Our next step, wRAA, isn’t that hard to comprehend either.  It uses the aforementioned linear weights but presents its results in a cumulative manner, unlike wOBA.  wRAA is also scaled such that zero is the league average, so it can be compared across different seasons.  Finally, wRAA uses a number called the “wOBA scale” to undo the “scale to OBP” choice that is baked into wOBA.  I know from Taylor’s player page that his wRAA in 2017 was 19.3.

wRAA = ((0.3613 – .321)/1.185) * 568

wRAA = 19.317

So far, we’ve found our way to the correct “weighted runs above average” amount for Chris Taylor.  It’s worth pausing to appreciate that nothing overly complicated or debatable has been done so far: Taylor received the correct amount of credit (linear weights) for each of the positive batting outcomes (single, double, etc.) and that was scaled against the league’s offensive production since the value of a home run was very different in 2017 vs. 1917.  We are most of the way to Batting Runs, which along with fielding and baserunning is one of the three pillars of WAR.  What we need to do next is adjust these batting runs for Taylor’s ballpark and league.  Here’s the batting runs formula again:

Batting Runs = wRAA + (lgR/PA – (PF*lgR/PA))*PA + (lgR/PA – (AL or NL non-pitcher wRC/PA))*PA

I believe the number we’re aiming for, based on Taylor’s FanGraphs player page, is 18.7, which suggests minimal adjustments were needed to his 19.3 wRAA.

  • wRAA = 19.317
  • lgR = all the runs scored in all of baseball in 2017 = 22,582
  • PA = all the plate appearances in all of baseball in 2017 = 185,295
  • lgR/PA = 0.1219

At this point, we need to pause and talk about park factors.  Neil Weinberg wrote an informative beginner’s guide to park factors here.  Intuitively, it’s logical to make an adjustment for the player’s home stadium.  In the case of Taylor, Dodger Stadium suppressed overall run scoring by about 8% from 2013-17, so we apply half of that under the assumption that he played half his games at home.  Taylor actually did play half of his games at home in 2017, but even if he didn’t, the park factor would be applied as if he did.  Additionally, as Weinberg explains in his article, “parks don’t affect every player evenly and our park factors sort of assume that they do.”  If for some reason Dodger Stadium actually improves Taylor’s hitting (due to handedness, batted ball profile, weather, or any number of things) he’d still get a boost in this WAR calculation to account for Dodger Stadium suppressing offense on average.  An assumption is also being made that the player played his road games in “a pretty average setting,” which is not necessarily true.

Weinberg wrote his park factor article in January 2015, noting, “We want to know how parks influence each moment of the game, but we simply don’t have granular enough data to really get there. A ball hit at 15 degrees directly over the shortstop while traveling at 93 miles per hour will travel how far and land where? That’s basically what we want to know for every possible angle and velocity, but we just don’t have the data and we don’t have it for every type of weather in every park.”  In 2018, we do have most of that data, due to Statcast.  I asked Appelman about potential efforts to reboot the park factor component in WAR using Statcast data, and he replied, “I have not personally done much work on park factors. They are in my opinion, very annoying. I just don’t really like dealing with them and they make everything much more complicated. However, they’re obviously good to have.”  Swartz was of the same mind, explaining that park factors are “very noisy” and while you could possibly improve them with Statcast or weather data, the precision gained would be minimal.  Imperfect as park factors are, Swartz told me it would be “disastrous” to leave them out.

  • PF = 2013-17 park factor for Dodgers Stadium = 0.955055 (Good luck finding a park factor this precise.  FanGraphs’ Guts page just gives you .96 for the Dodgers.  Were I not able to speak directly to Appelman, I wouldn’t know how to get the more precise figure, nor would I know that 2013-17 is the current time period used on the listed five-year park factor).

In this example we added a significant amount of batting runs to account for Taylor playing half his games in Dodgers Stadium – about 3, to the 19 we started with.

Now, we need to talk about one more mini-calculation, for which a custom FanGraphs league-level, non-pitcher leaderboard is needed.

  • NL non-pitcher wRC = 11,282
  • NL non-pitcher plate appearances = 87,753

Batting Runs = 19.317 + (.1219 – 11.64)*568 + (.1219 – .1286)*568

Batting Runs = 19.317 + 3.111 + (-3.803) = 18.625

That last part of the formula, where we ended up subtracting 3.8 batting runs?  That comes from this part:

(lgR/PA – (AL or NL non-pitcher wRC/PA))*PA

I asked Swartz exactly what is being adjusted there, and why it exists.  He answered, “What it appears to be doing is some sort of league adjustment (AL vs. NL), but I’m not sure it really makes sense.”  He added, “It’s really a very specific approach, so I have to imagine whoever put that together had something in mind. And it needs to be some sort of league adjustment, even if the adjustment is only about the run environment of the league.”  I’m left without a clear understanding of the purpose of this part of the batting runs formula.

In the end, I didn’t quite arrive at the 18.7 listed under the Batting section on Taylor’s FanGraphs page.  While I used unrounded numbers wherever possible, I believe rounding is the reason I’m slightly off.  Getting this close to the correct batting runs number was arduous.  Perhaps that’s because WAR isn’t meant to be calculated by hand, but attempting to do so increased by understanding of batting runs well beyond just looking at the formula.  It’s easy to read an explanation and think you understand, even when you don’t.  I hope MLBTR readers will learn and ask questions along with me.  We’ll tackle the baserunning component of FanGraphs WAR next time.

AL West Notes: Rangers, Felix, Cruz

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Let’s check in on the latest out of the American League West …

  • As the Rangers prepare to find a new manager, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News explores the case for simply keeping interim skipper Don Wakamatsu. It’ll obviously be hard for Wakamatsu to move the needle on the team’s bottom line over his brief tenure, but he is in some respects in the midst of a live audition for the job. As Grant notes, the former Mariners manager not only “has a long history with the Rangers and, in particular, [GM Jon] Daniels,” but also arguably offers the right blend of “continuity” and change. Wakamatsu certainly has a broad array of experiences in different dugouts, as is well documented in the piece.
  • Longtime Mariners ace Felix Hernandez is slated to return from a hamstring injury to make one last start in the 2018 season, as MLB.com’s Greg Johns reports. The veteran hurler, who has fallen on hard times on the mound of late, says he “just want[s] to finish strong and show them I can still pitch.” From the club’s perspective, skipper Scott Servais says, they hope to send Hernandez “into the offseason with peace of mind” to he can know how best to “get ready for next year.” Of course, there’s also a line of thinking that both player and team could be best served by a clean break at the end of this season — as Bob Dutton recently discussed (but did not specifically advocate).
  • Meanwhile, Dutton tackles the case of veteran Mariners slugger Nelson Cruz in another post on the KLAY 1180 AM blog. Both sides are saying they are hopeful of a reunion, but they have yet to hold contract talks. It’s an interesting dynamic, as Dutton explains, because there’s an argument to be made that Seattle ought to utilize its resources in a different manner — particularly with Robinson Cano on hand as a potential part-time DH. Of course, as Dutton also rightly notes, there is still plenty of time left to chat before Cruz formally returns to the open market — and, of course, he could still return thereafter. It’ll be interesting to see how things pan out.

5 Middle Infielders That Posted Surprisingly Strong 2018 Seasons

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It’s an exceedingly quiet day on the transactional front, which affords an opportunity to look at some higher-level developments around the game as the 2018 season comes to an end. My perusal of the stat pages revealed that there are several interesting middle infielders — by trade, if not always by use this year — who have posted surprisingly strong campaigns.

There are obviously other shortstops and second basemen who have likewise excelled beyond expectations — e.g. Scooter Gennett and Trevor Story — but it feels as if they’ve received proper recognition and examination already. It’s worth taking a closer look at this handful of players:

  • Jurickson Profar, Rangers: Yes, folks, the former top overall prospect in baseball has finally arrived … at the ripe old age of, um, 25. Through 567 plate appearances this season, Profar has produced a .255/.337/.457 slash with 18 home runs and ten steals. He has gone down on strikes just 79 times while drawing 52 walks. While the defensive work hasn’t been valued as highly — whether due to frequent position shifts, Profar’s shoulder issues, short-sample blips, or otherwise — he has made up for that with highly valued work on the bases. All said, it’s the sort of campaign that was once envisioned for a player who debuted at 19 years of age. He’ll remain arbitration eligible for two more campaigns and could step in at third base if Adrian Beltre departs, though Profar’s capabilities in the middle infield still help buttress the Rangers’ options (including in potential trade scenarios).
  • Johan Camargo Braves: While Camargo has been handling third base this year, and doing so with aplomb, he spent most of his time in the minors at short and could still factor there in the future, so he gets a spot on this list. Interesting young infielders abound in Atlanta, but this one has come from way off the radar to turn in a season every bit as impressive (if not moreso) than those of his more celebrated brethren. If his 2017 results suggested some likelihood of regression, Camargo’s 2018 follow-up indicates that he has made serious strides. Through 499 plate appearances, he owns a .273/.353/.457 slash with 18 home runs. He’s drawing free passes in ten percent of his trips to the dish (double his rookie rate) while strikeout out twenty percent of the time. Only a surprisingly poor baserunning grade (-3.4 BsR) has held him to an even 3.0 fWAR on the season.
  • Joey Wendle, Rays: Entering his age-28 season, Wendle had appeared in just 36 MLB contests. Thus far in 2018, he has contributed 521 plate appearances of .301/.356/.439 hitting with seven long balls and 15 steals. Wendle may struggle to sustain those numbers, given that he’s relying upon a hefty .355 BABIP and isn’t quite supported by Statcast (.341 wOBA vs. .320 xwOBA). Still, he offers value in the other facets of the game and at worst seems to be quite a useful, affordable asset for the surprising Rays. It’s all the better for Tampa Bay given that Wendle was acquired out of DFA limbo over the winter.
  • Marcus Semien, Athletics: We can probably stop waiting for Semien to break out at the plate. He’s yet again firmly ensconced between the 90 and 100 wRC+ range — smack dab in the middle, in fact, at 95. He might finish with only about half the dingers he smacked in 2016 (27), but is reaching base at a palatable enough clip. So … his inclusion on this list is almost entirely dependent upon what one thinks of his glovework. Semien is humming along at +8 DRS and +7.8 UZR after mostly posting poor metrics in past seasons. He hasn’t entirely eliminated the errors that once plagued him, though with twenty this year he’s still well shy of the 35 he recorded in 2015. What he is doing is earning big marks for ranging to balls and converting them into outs. The result? 3.6 fWAR and 4.0 rWAR.
  • Jose Peraza, Reds: There isn’t a ton to get excited about with Peraza, who has posted solidly average marks in most regards while providing an extra boost on the bases. Still, that makes him a potential regular player — much more than he seemed capable of after his first full MLB run in 2017. At 24 years of age, he’s youthful and controllable. Peraza has made clear strides in the power department, where he has socked nearly as many dingers (13) as he had at all levels in the prior three seasons combined (14). He’s also converting his frequent contact into a high-enough batting average (.290) to support a reasonable on-base percentage (.328) despite a piddling (albeit still-improving) 4.4% walk rate. Though the defensive metrics aren’t in love with the glove, it’s good enough to hold down the position. The overall package is sufficient to induce the Reds to pencil in Peraza at short for some time, giving top prospect Nick Senzel a look in the corner outfield this fall rather than exploring other potential infield configurations.

Silver Linings: American League East

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In our Silver Linings series, we’re checking in on the most promising developments for non-contending teams during an otherwise disappointing 2018 season. Today, we’re checking in on the American League East. It has been a runaway all year long for the Red Sox and Yankees, but that doesn’t mean the other three organizations in the division haven’t had promising developments of their own.

[Previous “Silver Linings” Posts: AL Central, NL Central, NL East]

Here are the silver linings from the AL East …

Rays: Sustained Winning

There was plenty of hand-wringing over the 2017-18 offseason as the Rays continued to move established-but-controllable major leaguers — and, with them, salary obligations. Perhaps, then, we might have expected a mid-summer trade of Chris Archer to trigger yet more alarm bells over the perpetually tight-fisted Tampa Bay organization.

By that point, however, the Rays were drawing at least some begrudging respect for wrapping up the month of July one game over .500 despite a piddling payroll and exceedingly youthful roster. Since? Well, they’ve won 33 of their past 48 ballgames, giving the Rays the same 87-68 record as the powerhouse Indians.

Unfortunately, owing to the two division pillars and the yet-more-meteoric rise of the Athletics, the Tampa Bay organization hasn’t really been in contention at all despite its startling success. But in this case, at least, winning is its own reward — particularly in a year in which the club announced new plans for a long-anticipated ballpark.

That’s enough to constitute a true silver lining. But this one is particularly sparkly — diamond-studded, even — because of what it means for the future. Virtually all of the improvement has been driven by young, cheap, controllable players. There are too many interesting developments to single out, in fact, making the Rays a fascinating team to watch going forward.

Young lefty Blake Snell is the most obvious standout, but he’s hardly the lone reason for excitement. Breakout performances from Joey Wendle, Mallex Smith, and Daniel Robertson are nearly as exciting. The return of Matt Duffy, arrival of Jake Bauers and Willy Adames, emergence of slugging duo C.J. Cron and Ji-Man Choi, and stable of young hybrid hurlers leave room for plenty of optimism — particularly if relative veterans Kevin Kiermaier and Tommy Pham can play to their established ceilings and the club can put some of its open payroll space to good use.

Blue Jays: Superstars-in-Waiting

For a team with a hefty payroll and a variety of established veterans, there’s no sugarcoating the disappointing course of the 2018 season. And there really haven’t been many bright spots on the MLB roster.

Rather remarkably, in fact, the Jays do not have a single player on their roster that has reached 2.0 fWAR on the season. Lefty J.A. Happ did exceed that tally before being traded. The club’s current leader in pitching fWAR is Ryan Borucki, who’s at 1.9 fWAR. A nice showing, to be sure, though his success has been predicated on home run suppression that may not be sustainable. On the position-player side, the solid efforts of Justin Smoak, Randal Grichuk, Kevin Pillar, and Aledmys Diaz have put them between 1.6 and 1.8 fWAR to this point in 2018.

That’s not to say that there aren’t some areas of interest on the MLB roster. Catcher Danny Jansen, in particular, could be a foundational piece. Billy McKinney, Dwight Smith Jr., and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have shown promise in their early exposure to the majors. On the pitching staff, Sam Gaviglio has posted better peripherals than results, perhaps leaving some room for optimism. Relievers Ryan Tepera and Tim Mayza have been solid and remain controllable.

But the bottom line remains that, for the Toronto faithful, the true excitement is on the horizon. MLBTR’s recent roundup of the 20 top minor-league performers of 2018 houses the very best developments for the organization this season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. seems ready to join Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto as immensely productive young big league sluggers. Shortstop Bo Bichette could be an up-the-middle powerhouse for years to come. A third youngster with big league bloodlines, Cavan Biggio, also turned in a big campaign, as did fellow infielder Kevin Smith.

Orioles: Amateur Outlook

This is, simply put, the worst team in baseball. That undesirable title was up for grabs as of the middle of the season, but the O’s are now running away with the race to the bottom. The club sits at present on a 45-110 record, fully 8.5 games back of the next-worst team in baseball.

So … where do you really go for hope? There’s no uber prospect waiting in the wings, as is the case in Toronto. That’s not to say that the O’s lack promising youngsters, but none truly stand out in anything approaching the manner of Guerrero and Bichette. One young hurler, Dean Kremer, did land on our top-20 list. He, along with top Baltimore prospect Yusniel Diaz, came t the organization in the Manny Machado deal. Another mid-season trade brought in Jonathan Villar, who has thus far been in bounceback form in Baltimore.

Truly, though, the chief silver lining of this abysmal campaign is the team’s outlook for acquiring top-quality amateur players. That’s not quite what you’d hope for, and perhaps portends a lengthy rebuilding process, but it’s hard to deny. In particular, the 2019 draft will afford an opportunity to land one or more premium talents, as the O’s will have the top overall pick. Beyond that, too, the organization seems finally to have turned the corner on its philosophy regarding the spending of international money. With plenty of cash to invest, the organization is slated to pursue the top-available talents and ought to come away with some intriguing new talent to bolster the farm.

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