MLB Trade Rumors

The Royals have been looking for outfield upgrades for years and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that they have interest in Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates, though Rosenthal adds that talks haven’t yet gained momentum and Kansas City is also interested in other hitters.

Reynolds, 30, has been one of the faces of the Pirates for years. As the club has struggled to win, he has been one of their few consistently strong performers. Just over two years ago, they signed him to a seven-year, $100MM extension, the largest guarantee the franchise has ever given out.

Despite his status with the club, it appears he is at least somewhat available. The Pirates are 38-50 and nine games out of a playoff spot, putting them clearly in seller position. Recent reporting indicated that they will have very few off-limits players in trade talks this month, with Paul Skenes and Andrew McCutchen reportedly the only players who will be truly off the table.

Willingness to discuss a trade doesn’t mean it will actually happen but picking up the phone suggests a non-zero chance. Reynolds is now into his 30s and his performance has dipped a bit this year. He has a line of .237/.301/.393 on the season, which translates to a wRC+ of 90. He came into this year with a career line of .276/.352/.470 line and a 121 wRC+. He’s never been an especially strong defender, so he needs to hit to provide value.

It’s possible the baseball gods are responsible for the dip. Reynolds came into this year with a career .328 batting average on balls in play but he has just a .295 BABIP this season. That’s despite the fact that his batted-ball metrics have actually improved. His 49.1% hard hit rate, 91.8 mile-per-hour exit velocity and 11.5% barrel rate are all career highs.

It makes for a tricky calculus for the Pirates. As mentioned, Reynolds is an esteemed member of the franchise and has been signed to the largest contract in franchise history. Trading that deal barely two years after it was signed would surely be a bad public relations move at a time when the fan base is already unhappy. From a pure baseball perspective, it would also be tricky. Moving Reynolds now could be a bit of a sell-low move since his surface-level stats are down but the numbers under the hood look fine.

On the other hand, the Pirates always have a tight budget and the Reynolds deal still has five years and $76MM remaining after this year, including the buyout on a 2031 club option. There will be about $4MM left of this year’s $12MM salary at the end of July, meaning there would be about $80MM in total left to be paid out at the deadline. With a lack of sellers this year, perhaps the Bucs are dreaming about moving on from a big chunk of change owed to an aging player while they have the chance, perhaps getting something useful back in return.

But of course, that would require some club to have faith in Reynolds bouncing back from this year’s swoon. It’s possible clubs have some skepticism around that. If Reynolds were declared a free agent today, he probably wouldn’t get an $80MM deal, which arguably makes the deal underwater. The Pirates could eat some money in the deal to improve the return but that could exacerbate the P.R. issue. Not only would they be trading away the largest deal in franchise history after a short amount of time, but they would be paying Reynolds to play elsewhere.

For the Royals, as mentioned, their outfield has been an ongoing problem. Kyle Isbel and Drew Waters lead the team in plate appearances from the outfield spots this year but each has a wRC+ of 66. A two-year deal for Hunter Renfroe was a dud and he has been released. Jac Caglianone is getting his first taste of major league playing time but hasn’t got into a groove yet. The MJ Melendez experiment went on for years before he got sent to the minors.

That’s been a big part of the club’s top-heavy offense. Last year, they were able to succeed thanks to an outstanding season from Bobby Witt Jr., along with some decent contributions from Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino, but the lineup was otherwise lackluster. This year, Witt is still quite good but not quite at last year’s pace. Perez has fallen off more significantly. A big surge from Maikel Garcia has compensated for those dips somewhat, but it’s still a lineup with a number of holes.

The club has a collective .243/.298/.364 line and 81 wRC+, production that is worse than every big league club apart from the White Sox and Rockies. They have still managed to hang in contention thanks to their pitching but are 5.5 games out of a playoff spot at the moment. Providing a jolt to the lineup would surely improve their chances of making gains in the race.

Though the Royals spend a bit more money than the Pirates, they’re not exactly top dogs in that department. Witt’s extension is the only deal in their franchise history larger than the $100MM that the Pirates gave to Reynolds. Taking on $80MM as part of a midseason deal would be no small matter.

Perhaps they view that as an opportunity that is normally not available to them. As Rosenthal points out, they were connected to Anthony Santander this winter, but he ultimately signed with the Blue Jays. That was technically a five-year, $92.5MM deal but it’s actually worth about $70MM when factoring in deferrals. The Royals also had reported interest in Jurickson Profar, who signed with Atlanta on a three-year, $42MM deal. Perhaps it’s a coincidence, but those two and Reynolds are all switch-hitters.

After struggling to find free agents willing to take their money, perhaps they view this as a chance to get around that problem. Reynolds doesn’t have a full no-trade clause but does have the ability to block trades to six teams. It’s unknown if the Royals are one of the six on his list. But as mentioned, the $80MM has to be a factor. That’s more than what Profar and Santander got, when considering the deferrals. If the Royals didn’t have the money to finish those kinds of deals in the winter, do they have it now?

Turning back to Pittsburgh, it’s not as though they are so overflowing with bats that they can flippantly discard them. The main reason they are in seller position this year is because of their tepid offense, as their pitching is actually quite good. That largely seems to be the case going forward as well, since they have an enviable collection of young arms but a lack of impact bats. They don’t have a qualified hitter with a wRC+ above 112 this year. 38-year-old McCutchen is the only one with a wRC+ higher than 102. Reynolds is scuffling a bit this year but he’s still one of the better bats in the lineup and trading him would deal a huge blow to their future offense.

It’s a very interesting fit in many ways. The Royals have clearly tried to get a player like Reynolds for years, so it’s understandable they would have interest. But would they be able to make it work financially? The Pirates naturally have to consider ways to make the most of this lost season. But the front office in Pittsburgh would have to also consider the P.R. hit and the downgrade to next year’s offense. They surely want to contend in 2026 and their pitching makes that possible, but the lineup is already bad and would get worse without Reynolds in it.

Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images