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Tigers Still Pursuing Bregman After Flaherty Agreement

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The Tigers made their biggest strike of the offseason last night, agreeing to terms with right-hander Jack Flaherty on a two-year deal that allows him to opt back into free agency at season’s end. He’ll be paid $25MM in 2025 and has a $10MM player option for the 2026 season (that increases to $20MM if he makes 15 starts). Even with that fairly pricey pact in place, the Tigers aren’t closing the door on the other marquee free agent they’ve been chasing. ESPN’s Buster Olney reports that Detroit still in pursuit of third baseman Alex Bregman even after signing Flaherty. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press hears the same, writing that the Tigers have “conducted their offseason moves around their interest in signing Bregman,” ultimately passing on several right-handed bats in whom they also had interest (Christian Walker, switch-hitter Anthony Santander, and Ha-Seong Kim).

With Flaherty on the books, the Tigers’ 2025 payroll projects out to about $142MM, per RosterResource’s estimates. They’re up to $156MM in luxury obligations. That leaves them more than $50MM shy of the franchise-record $200MM player payroll and $85MM shy of the $241MM tax threshold. There’s room to accommodate Bregman, be it on a higher-annual value short-term deal with opt-outs or on the type of long-term, six- or seven-year pact he’s been seeking throughout free agency. The only Tigers guaranteed any salary beyond the 2025 season are Flaherty and infielders Colt Keith and Javier Baez. It’s possible — if not likely — that Flaherty will turn down that player option and head back to the market. Baez owed $25MM in 2025 and $24MM in both 2026-27. Keith is owed just over $24MM total through the 2029 season.

Suffice it to say, there’s ample long-term payroll space available if the Tigers decide that a late agreement with Bregman is the optimal finishing piece to an active winter. Adding Bregman would likely mean optioning top prospect Jace Jung to Triple-A Toledo to begin the season, but he’d be a depth option at either third or second in the event of an injury to Bregman or fellow free agent signee Gleyber Torres. Matt Vierling would presumably spend the bulk of his time in right field, though he could spell Bregman at the hot corner when he needs a breather or perhaps gets a rest day at designated hitter.

Any deal between the Tigers and Bregman would surely be the largest pact ever issued under president of baseball operations Scott Harris. In two-plus years on the job — a portion of it still at least partially in rebuild mode — Harris hasn’t gone beyond a two-year guarantee for a free agent. Flaherty and Kenta Maeda are the only two free agents Detroit has signed for two years under Harris, and no free agent has received more than Flaherty’s $35MM guarantee. The Tigers went six years on their extension with Keith, but he’d yet to even make his MLB debut and received a $28.6425MM guarantee.

Bregman reportedly has multiple six-year offers — one from the Astros (valued at at least $156MM) and one from another interested party that is said to contain an opt-out after year one. The Blue Jays have been suggested as the other team, though it’s not expressly clear that they’ve done so (nor is the value of the other six-year offer known). Beyond the Astros, Tigers and Jays, both the Cubs and Red Sox have been involved in Bregman’s market. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score in Chicago reports that as of yesterday afternoon, the Cubs are still in active talks with Bregman’s camp as well. That’s not really a new development, of course, but it’s further indication that none of the five clubs reported to be in pursuit of Bregman has fully backed down as of yet.

The Opener: Tigers, Pivetta, Arbitration

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With the calendar now flipped to February, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. What’s next for the Tigers?

After catching fire down the stretch in order to win 86 games, make the playoffs, and fight their way to Game 5 of the ALDS against the Guardians, the Tigers have been fairly active this winter as they’ve added Alex Cobb, Gleyber Torres, and Tommy Kahnle. Yesterday they made their biggest splash yet by bringing Jack Flaherty back into the fold on a $35MM guarantee. Flaherty, whom the club traded to the Dodgers ahead of last year’s deadline, will earn $25MM in 2025 and have the opportunity to opt out of one year and $10MM after the season.

With the right-hander rejoining Tarik Skubal at the top of the Tigers’ rotation, is there more in store for Detroit this winter? The Tigers have been one of the teams most frequently connected to third baseman Alex Bregman in free agency this winter, though recent reporting has suggested that talks between the sides are at a “standstill.” Looking beyond Bregman, first baseman Spencer Torkelson appears to be a plausible trade chip given the fact that signing Torres kicked incumbent sec0nd baseman Colt Keith over to first base for the 2025 campaign. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at plausible landing spots for Torkelson, should the Tigers decide to move him, last week.

2. Will Pivetta’s market begin to move?

Right-hander Nick Pivetta declined a qualifying offer from the Red Sox at the outset of the offseason, but since then there’s been little to say about his market. The Blue Jays were connected to him earlier this offseason, and there’s been some reporting that’s suggested the Padres could have interest if they end up trading Dylan Cease and creating additional budget space. The soon-to-be 32-year-old has hardly been a part of the offseason rumor mill despite being one of the best pitchers remaining on the market since the rush of starting pitching signings during the Winter Meetings. Now that Flaherty has signed and Pivetta is the highest-ranked free agent starter still available on MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, could his market begin to show signs of life?

3. More arbitration deals on the horizon?

Johan Oviedo and Dennis Santana of the Pirates, Mickey Moniak of the Angels, and Mark Leiter Jr. of the Yankees are the four players to have already gone to an arbitration hearing against their clubs this winter. Of that quartet, only Moniak has emerged victorious. Five players players are still scheduled to face their team in a hearing over the next two weeks: Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and Andre Pallante of the Cardinals as well as Nathaniel Lowe of the Nationals and Luis Rengifo of the Angels.

It’s possible, however, that some of those players could agree to deals with their clubs in order to avoid the hearing entirely. Kyle Tucker, Michael King, and William Contreras are among the notable players to avoid arbitration with their clubs in recent weeks, all coming to terms on one-year guarantees after initially exchanging figures with their teams. (King and Contreras have a mutual and club option, respectively.) Will the final five players make it to a hearing, or reach an agreement before then?

What Other Competitive Balance Round Draft Picks Could Be Traded This Winter?

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The Competitive Balance Rounds are a pair of bonus rounds within the MLB draft, designed to give an extra pick to the game’s smaller-market teams.  Teams that fall within either the bottom 10 in revenues and market size are eligible, and since 2017, the league determined the eligible teams based on a formula involving market score, revenues, and winning percentage.  The first of the two Competitive Balance Rounds (CBR-A) comes right before the start of the second round, and CBR-B comes right after the second round.  For the 2025 draft, a total of 15 teams will gain an extra pick, and their order within their respective round is determined by their win totals in the 2024 season.

With that explanation out of the way, let’s get to the fun stuff — these picks can be traded.  Specifically, a CBR selection can traded exactly once, and to any team in the league.  Since these are the only MLB draft picks that are eligible to be dealt, it has become increasingly common to see teams move these extra selections as part of larger trade packages for established talent.

Three CBR picks in the 2024 draft changed hands due to trades, most prominently the Orioles’ inclusion of the 34th overall selection as part of the trade package sent to the Brewers for Corbin Burnes.  This offseason has already seen three CBR picks in the 2025 draft dealt, and this post will explore the possibility that some other teams with CBR selections might move these picks to fill a more immediate need.

To cover the broad reason why any of these teams might not make a trade, it’s simply that draft picks are a very valuable asset unto themselves.  Controllable young talent is particularly important for lower-revenue clubs that usually don’t splurge on expensive free agents or trade targets, which is part of the reasons why the Competitive Balance Rounds exist in the first place.  Clubs are naturally pretty reluctant to move these CBR picks unless the right opportunity presents itself on the trade market.

(First, some notes on the draft order.  The first 75 places in the 2025 draft have largely been established, since the remaining free agents who rejected qualifying offers all played for teams who were either luxury-tax payors in 2024, or aren’t revenue-sharing recipients.  That means that if Nick Pivetta signs elsewhere, the Red Sox will get their compensation pick after CBR-B.  If Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman sign elsewhere, the Mets’ and Astros’ compensation picks will fall after the fourth round.  Also, because the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers all exceeded the second luxury-tax tier in 2024, their first-round picks were dropped by 10 spots in the draft order.  This means that these three big spenders are all technically selecting within CBR-A, but obviously these aren’t official CBR picks.  The only potential change would be if a team that signs Alonso, Bregman or Pivetta surrenders its second-round pick to do so.)

Onto the selections….

Brewers (33rd overall, CBR-A): Milwaukee is actually making consecutive picks in the draft, as they received a compensatory pick when Willy Adames rejected the team’s qualifying offer and signed with the Giants.  Owning the 32nd overall pick might make the Brew Crew slightly more opening to trading the 33rd overall pick, perhaps to add pitching or to the infield in the wake of Adames’ departure.  The Brewers could considering adding their CBR pick as a sweetener to try and move Rhys Hoskins’ contract, yet it’s less likely that the team moves a valuable draft selection just as part of a salary dump.

Tigers (34th overall, CBR-A): The Tigers are considered to be one of the top suitors remaining for Alex Bregman, and signing a qualified free agent would cost the Tigers their third-highest pick in the 2025 draft.  Losing the 63rd overall pick means the Tigers almost surely wouldn’t also deal their CBR pick.  If Bregman signed elsewhere, it’s more plausible that Detroit could consider trading its CBR pick for a big right-handed bat, but still probably on the unlikely side.

Mariners (35th overall, CBR-A): It was almost exactly a year ago that the M’s traded their CBR-B pick in the 2024 draft to the White Sox as part of the Gregory Santos deal.  Santos’ injury-plagued first season in Seattle could make the Mariners more hesitant to an even higher CBR selection, yet this tradable pick might an asset the M’s can use within an overall difficult offseason market for the team.  The Mariners are working with limited payroll space and most every team in baseball would prefer win-now help over prospects, seemingly leaving the M’s dealing with a lot of offers for their starting pitchers.  With Seattle so reluctant to deal from its excellent rotation, offering up the 35th overall pick in trade talks might help get things moving.

Twins (36th overall, CBR-A): Speaking of front offices without much financial flexibility, Minnesota has had a very quiet offseason, with most of the headlines focused on a potential sale of the franchise rather than any significant roster moves.  With reportedly around only $5MM or so in payroll space, the Twins might have to make some trades just to free up more money for more trade possibilities.  Moving the CBR-A pick could be added to the Twins’ list of possibilities, but the team has enough potential trade candidates on the active roster that moving a big league-ready player is probably their preference over dealing away a draft pick.

Rays (37th overall, CBR-A): It might not come as much surprise that Tampa is the team that has acquired the most CBR picks over the last seven seasons.  As you’ll see shortly, the Rays added to that total with the 42nd overall pick of the 2025 draft.  Like with the Brewers and the Adames compensatory selection, having an “extra” pick in a sense might make the Rays more open to dealing this pick here, but that hasn’t been Tampa Bay’s style.

Reds (now Dodgers, 41st overall, CBR-A): This pick was already moved, as Cincinnati traded its selection along with outfield prospect Mike Sirota to Los Angeles in exchange for Gavin Lux.

Athletics (now Rays, 42nd overall, CBR-A): Another swapped pick, as the A’s moved the 42nd overall pick to Tampa Bay as part of the Jeffrey Springs trade.  This move in particular highlights the speculative nature of this post, since going into the offseason, the Athletics seemingly wouldn’t have been on the radar as a team likely to trade its CBR pick.

Marlins (43th overall, CBR-A): There’s basically zero chance the Fish move a draft pick in the midst of their extensive rebuild.

Guardians (70th overall, CBR-B): The reigning AL Central champs have generally gone chalk with their CBR selections, not acquiring or trading any picks until this year.  Adding an experienced outfielder or middle infielder for the 70th pick might work on paper, as the Guards are another team with two CBR selections and not much spending capacity to address its roster needs.

Orioles (71st overall, CBR-B): The idea for this post came about after writing another piece yesterday about how the O’s might be well-suited to trade this pick.

Diamondbacks (now Guardians, 72nd overall, CBR-B): Arizona sent the 72nd pick and Slade Cecconi to Cleveland to bring Josh Naylor to the desert.

Royals (73rd overall, CBR-B): Kansas City traded its CBR-A selection just hours before the 2024 draft began, moving the 39th overall pick and third base prospect Cayden Wallace to the Nationals for Hunter Harvey.  While Harvey battled injuries and wasn’t much of a help in the Royals’ run to the ALDS, the fact that the team made such an aggressive midseason deal in pursuit of a playoff spot might hint that the front office is willing to make another bold swap involving this pick.  Outfield help remains the Royals’ biggest need at this point in the winter.

Cardinals (74th overall, CBR-B): Outgoing president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has spoken about wanting to leave a “clean slate” for new PBO Chaim Bloom.  Between that and the Cardinals’ stated goal of refocusing on player development, it seems unlikely St. Louis would look to move its CBR pick.

Pirates (75th overall, CBR-B): The Bucs have had a relatively quiet offseason, with the team’s typical lack of big spending.  In theory, trading a CBR pick might be a helpful way for the Pirates to add talent without breaking the budget, though Ben Cherington has yet to explore this tactic during his time as Pittsburgh’s general manager.

Rockies (76th overall, CBR-B): While the Rockies aren’t technically in an official rebuild, they’re not exactly building up after losing 204 games over the last two seasons.  Using this pick to add another young player to the farm system seems far more likely than the Rox trading the pick away.

Cubs Sign Nicky Lopez To Minor League Contract

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The Cubs have signed infielder Nicky Lopez, according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman.  The deal is a minor league pact, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers (multiple links) reports, and Lopez will make $1.5MM if he cracks the Cubs’ active roster.  Lopez is represented by Octagon.

Lopez heads from one side of the Windy City to the other, as he spent the 2024 season with the White Sox as a regular starter in the middle infield.  Beginning the season as the primary everyday second baseman, Lopez was shifted over into the shortstop role for much of July and August, before playing a little more sparingly down the stretch.  The Sox put Lopez on waivers at the end of August to see if another team would claim him (and the last $700K remaining on his $4.3MM salary) away, but there weren’t any takers.

Heading into his final year of arbitration eligibility, Lopez found himself outrighted off Chicago’s 40-man roster in November, and he chose to become a free agent instead of accepting the assignment.  The move was essentially a non-tender, as Lopez was projected for a $5.1MM salary in 2025 and the Sox obviously didn’t see him as part of their plans (at least at that price).

Lopez’s 2021 campaign with the Royals was the clear high point of his six MLB seasons, as he hit .300/.365/.378 over 565 plate appearances while also playing excellent shortstop defense, resulting in a 5.5 fWAR that ranked 13th among all players in baseball.  That 104 wRC+ (perhaps aided by a .347 BABIP) now looks like an outlier compared to the rest of Lopez’s offensive output, as he has only a 68 wRC+ over 1187 PA in the last three seasons.  That includes a 77 wRC+ from his .241/.312/.294 slash line in 445 PA with the White Sox in 2024.

The glovework has also fallen off since 2021, at least as a shortstop.  Lopez had -9 Defensive Runs Saved and a -5.5 UZR/150 in 344 2/3 innings at short last season, but -1 DRS and a +2.4 UZR/150 in the larger sample size of 640 1/3 innings at second base.  (The Outs Above Average metric liked Lopez’s work at both position, with a +4 as a second baseman and +1 as a shortstop.)

This solid work at the keystone is most pertinent for Lopez’s possible role in Wrigleyville.  Nico Hoerner’s availability for the start of the season is still unclear after the second baseman underwent flexor tendon surgery in October.  As of two weeks ago, Hoerner said he hadn’t yet started any hitting or throwing programs, so it would certainly seem like a season-opening IL stint might be in order for Hoerner to have more time to fully ramp up.

The Cubs already signed utilityman Jon Berti to a guaranteed contract, so Lopez’s addition on a minors deal gives the team more depth in the infield department.  Vidal Brujan (who is out of minor league options) was also acquired in a trade with the Marlins, and Rule 5 pick Gage Workman will have to remain on the active roster lest he be offered back to the Tigers.  Top prospect Matt Shaw is expected to get the first shot at the third base job in his rookie season, and between Shaw’s inexperience and Hoerner’s injury concern, the Cubs are giving themselves plenty of infield coverage to evaluate during Spring Training.

Fay Vincent Passes Away

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Former MLB commissioner Fay Vincent passed away yesterday due to complications of bladder cancer, according to a report from George Vecsey of the New York Times earlier today. He was 86 years old. Commissioner Rob Manfred issued a statement about Vincent’s passing this afternoon in the aftermath of the report.

“Fay Vincent played a vital role in ensuring that the 1989 Bay Area World Series resumed responsibly following the earthquake prior to Game Three, and he oversaw the process that resulted in the 1993 National League expansion to Denver and Miami,” the statement reads. “Mr. Vincent served the game during a time of many challenges, and he remained proud of his association with our National Pastime throughout his life.  On behalf of Major League Baseball, I extend my deepest condolences to Fay’s family and friends.”

Vincent took over as commissioner on September 13, 1989, in the aftermath of former commissioner A. Bartlett Giamatti’s sudden death due to a heart attack. Vincent was deputy commissioner at the time and almost immediately faced a major crisis when, as Manfred’s statement referenced, the 1989 World Series between the Giants and Athletics was forced to halt due to a major earthquake that wreaked havoc on the Bay Area. The World Series was paused for a week while the surrounding area rebuilt, but resumed a week later under the guidance of Vincent.

That was far from the only important moment during Vincent’s brief tenure as commissioner, however. Vincent took over as commissioner ahead of a fractious time for baseball when relations between the Players Association and ownership were more hostile than ever before. Vincent presided over a lockout in 1990 that delayed the start of the season but ultimately did not involve cancelled games, but in avoiding the loss of games Vincent lost the faith of the owners, who viewed him as too pro-player as he tried to mend relations between the league and the players’ union after the collusion scandal of the 1980s. The league’s owners gathered in September of 1992 and gave Vincent an 18-9 vote of no-confidence, and he was fired shortly thereafter before being replaced with then-Brewers owner Bud Selig. Famously, the sport went on to suffer through a protracted players’ strike and cancelled World Series in 1994 amid Selig’s attempts to implement a salary cap.

“I don’t want to work for these guys,” Vincent said of the owners in an interview with Tyler Kepner of The Athletic when reflecting on his time as commissioner in November 2024. “I know that there’s going to be cheating, and I don’t want to be the policeman without community support. I mean, it’s hopeless.”

Aside from labor issues and his handling of the 1989 World Series, Vincent’s tenure included a number of other notable moments. He suspended Yankees owner George Steinbrenner for paying $40K in exchange for damaging information regarding outfielder Dave Winfield, though Steinbrenner was later reinstated in 1993. He also created and served as the chairman for a committee on historical accuracy that more strictly defined no-hitters and removed the asterisk from the AL home run record held by Roger Maris. Notably, Vincent was the one to circulate a 1991 memo reaffirming that players were banned from taking performance-enhancing drugs and other illegal substances. That memo, of course, was not enforced due largely to resistance from the players’ union and the owners’ disinterest in pursuing mandatory drug testing at the time.

Although Vincent’s tenure at the helm of MLB was relatively brief, he made a number of key decisions during that short time and benefited the game by ensuring the continuation of the 1989 World Series and avoiding cancelled games in 1990. MLBTR joins the rest of the baseball world in extending our condolences to Vincent’s friends and loved ones.

Padres Notes: Morejon, Machado, Ownership

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With Spring Training just around the corner, the Padres held their annual FanFest event yesterday and the impending return of baseball was a hot topic. With trade rumors surrounding right-handers Dylan Cease and Michael King while veteran Joe Musgrove figures to miss the entire 2025 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October, the club’s rotation has been under particular scrutiny in recent weeks.

However, the Padres end up filling out their rotation come Opening Day, one potential candidate to start has been eliminated at this point: left-hander Adrian Morejon. According to a report from Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune yesterday, club manager Mike Shildt spoke about Morejon’s place on the roster yesterday and gave the lefty a vote of confidence in a relief role.

“Adrián has found a really nice niche in the bullpen,” Shildt said, as relayed by Sanders. “It’s a spot that we think he’s not only going to do as well as he did last year, but take the next step and he’s excited about remaining in the bullpen and just being a dominant guy in that spot.”

That’s a bit of a reversal from earlier this winter, when Morejon was among a handful of relievers identified by president of baseball operations A.J. Preller as potential rotation converts. Moving players from the bullpen to the rotation has become quite popular around the game in recent years, and Preller’s decision to sign Seth Lugo as part of the club’s rotation mix and Lugo’s subsequent transformation into a bona fide top-of-the-rotation arm was a catalyst for that growing popularity.

Morejon was as sensible a candidate for such a conversion as any given his history as a starting pitcher in the minor leagues, though given that 2024 was Morejon’s first healthy season as a big leaguer it’s understandable that the club has decided to keep him in the bullpen rather than risk more injuries by stretching him out. Stephen Kolek and Bryan Hoeing have also been discussed as potential converts to the rotation, but it remains unclear whether that’s still on the table for them entering camp or if, like Morejon, the Padres plan to keep them in relief roles for 2025. It’s even possible those decisions have not yet been made given the uncertainty surrounding the club’s rotation amid rumors of the club trading Cease or King.

Turning to the positional side of things, veteran third baseman Manny Machado spoke to reporters (including MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell) yesterday about the progress his elbow has made since undergoing offseason surgery last winter. That surgery cost him the final days of the 2023 season and kept him from returning to his typical post as the Padres’ regular third baseman until May, and continued to mix in occasional DH days throughout the first half. Machado noted that he dealt with the “lingering effects” of his surgery throughout the 2024 campaign, but made clear that “everything” has been different for him this offseason as he’s now “back to normal” for the first time post-surgery.

Whether that will be enough to help catapult the 32-year-old back into the .280/.352/.504 (130 wRC+) form he showed during his first four seasons in a Padres uniform remains to be seen, but it’s surely an encouraging sign for Padres fans that Machado is feeling healthier than he was last season, when he posted a 122 wRC+ with 3.6 fWAR. The veteran slugger has nine years left on the 11-year, $350MM deal he signed prior to the 2023 season, so Machado’s ability to maintain star-caliber production into his mid-to-late 30’s will be key to the Padres’ success over the coming decade.

While the Padres have been preparing for the coming season on the field and in the front office, a squabble between ownership stakeholders has been going on in the background. While the Padres announced back in December that Peter Seidler’s brother John Seidler was poised to take over as the franchise control person, that was seemingly put on hold when Peter’s widow, Sheel Seidler, filed a lawsuit against Peter’s other two brothers (and trustees of The Peter Seidler Trust) Matt and Bob Seidler. Matt Seidler subsequently filed a response to that lawsuit last week, and as the legal battle surrounding the role of Padres control person continues plenty of speculation has gone on among fans and media members about the future of the franchise.

As noted in a column by Matt Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times yesterday, however, one thing the Seidler brothers are resolute on is their commitment to owning the Padres. Shaikin notes that the brothers have “no plans to sell the Padres to anyone.” That apparently includes Sheel Seidler, whose legal counsel Dane Butswinkas, Shaikin reports, refused to answer whether or not she is attempting to buy her former brothers-in-law out of the franchise.

“Ideally, we would like to resolve this with the brothers,” Butswinksas said, as relayed by Shaikin. “However, for that to occur, it would take some level of cooperation from them. So far, we have seen no signs of that happening. The current path towards resolution, unfortunately, is through litigation, which we know can drag on for years and would be in no one’s interest.”

The possibility of a sale comes up in Shaikin’s piece, which MLBTR readers are encouraged to read in full, as part of a larger discussion about recent legal disputes between stakeholders within ownership groups in instances of divorce, illness, or death affecting a club’s primary owner. Those disputes, as Shaikin notes, have a history of being resolved through the sale of the team. Former Padres owner John Moores and, more recently, the Angelos family that formerly owned the Orioles are among previous owners who have sold their teams amid legal battles within the team’s ownership structure.

Rays Granted Fourth Option Year On Jonathan Aranda

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The Rays have been granted a fourth option year on infielder Jonathan Aranda, according to a report from Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

Typically, players have three option seasons with one used each season during which the player spends at least 20 days on optional assignment in the minor leagues. A player is considered to be on optional assignment when on a club’s 40-man roster but sent to the minor leagues while not on a rehab assignment. Aranda, 27 in May, was added to the club’s 40-man prior to the 2022 season and has been optioned to the minor leagues in each of the past three campaigns, with at least 20 days in the minors each season. Under normal circumstances, that would leave him out of options headed into the 2025 campaign, meaning the Rays would have to expose him to waivers before attempting to return him to the minor leagues.

Occasionally, however, teams are granted a fourth option year on certain players, typically due to the player missing significant time with injury. MLB.com explains that players with less than five full professional seasons (defined as at least 90 days on a major or minor league active roster) are eligible for a fourth option year. That applies to Aranda, who played full-season ball for the first time during the 2021 season. Fourth option years are typically granted to teams on players who have missed significant time due to injury during their option years, which also applies to Aranda after he spent three months on the IL last year between multiple trips to the injured list.

The fourth option year affords the Rays additional flexibility regarding their positional mix this year as they look to bounce back from a difficult 2024 season. Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Danny Jansen, and Ben Rortvedt are the only players locked into Opening Day roster spots for the Rays who cannot be optioned to the minors, though that group will also include non-roster slugger Eloy Jimenez if he makes the team out of camp. With a number of intriguing youngsters in the upper levels of the minors like infielders Curtis Mead and Osleivis Basabe as well as outfielders Kameron Misner and Jake Magnum, it’s easy to imagine the Rays trying to maximize their roster by shuffling between those youngsters and their optionable major leaguers. Aranda is now included in that group, and with just 333 big league plate appearances under his belt to this point in his career it’s certainly feasible that the Rays utilize that fourth option year in the event he faces the sorts of struggles that many players do early in their big league careers.

That’s not to say Aranda doesn’t figure to be a key part of the club’s lineup, of course. The infielder currently figures to serve as the club’s Opening Day DH given the presence of Diaz and Lowe at first and second base respectively, but his solid .234/.308/.430 slash line (113 wRC+) in 44 games for the Rays last year was promising even for that role. More exciting than Aranda’s slash line was the improvements he made relative to 2023, as he cut his strikeout rate from 30.1% to just 22.4% while also hitting for more power has his barrel rate jumped from 5.3% to a fantastic 16.5%. That massive barrel rate would have been fifth in the majors last year if he had enough plate appearances to qualify and may not be entirely sustainable over a full season, but it’s simultaneously easy to imagine last year’s .264 BABIP coming up significantly given that it was a drop of more than 60 points relative to 2023.

Dylan Cease Discusses Trade Rumors

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For the second consecutive season, right-hander Dylan Cease is the most talked about player in trade rumors as the winter gives way to Spring Training. The then-White Sox hurler was shipped to the Padres in mid-March of last year, just before San Diego started their season in Seoul. It remains to be seen if the club will turn around and deal him during the spring themselves one year later, but AJ Cassavell of MLB.com notes that Cease made clear he isn’t bothered by the rumors swirling around him at yesterday’s FanFest event.

“You just focus on the task at hand,” Cease said, as relayed by Cassavell. “It’s just part of the business, really.”

Cease went on to note how much he loves San Diego and added that he would “definitely” like to stay in town. It certainly remains possible that he’ll be a Padre in 2025 even if it’s difficult to imagine him returning to San Diego upon hitting free agency this offseason. As Cassavell notes, however, a trade might be the most sensible path for the Padres as they navigate a budget crunch with multiple significant holes in their projected 2025 lineup. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Cease bring back the sort of significant return that could address multiple needs for the Padres while also getting his $13.75MM salary off the books to clear the way for further additions.

With that being said, getting the right deal for Cease may be easier said than done. The Cubs, Twins, and Mets are among the teams that have been connected to Cease in recent days, but there have been some indications from both Minnesota and New York that a trade could be difficult to work out. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported earlier this weekend that the Padres are asking for “significant major-league value” in Cease talks, adding that rival executives believe the club is “emboldened” by the exceptional return they received from the Yankees in last winter’s Juan Soto deal. Meanwhile, Hayes reports that the Twins are unwilling to part with top prospects like Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Luke Keaschall at this time and prefer to offer a package of big leaguers who can help address San Diego’s needs in the lineup and rotation.

That might sound like the teams match up well at first glance, but Hayes adds that the specifics of the return package figure to be a sitcking point. He suggests that the Padres are likely to ask for one of Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober as the centerpiece of a deal, which is an ask that it’s hard to imagine Minnesota agreeing to given that both are established, quality mid-rotation arms with three years of team control remaining. Hayes notes that the Twins would prefer to offer a package headlined by a young starter like Zebby Matthews or Simeon Woods Richardson that would also include Trevor Larnach and Willi Castro. Woods Richardson posted solid back-of-the-rotation production for the Twins in his rookie season last year, with a 4.17 ERA in 28 starts, while Matthews struggled in nine starts at the big league level but remains the club’s top pitching prospect and is generally believed to project as a #4 starter in the majors long-term.

The value discrepancy between players of Ryan and Ober’s caliber and the likes of Matthews and Woods Richardson is significant, and the sides would need to move significant off their current stances in order for a deal to come together. It appears to be a similar story with the Mets, as Will Sammon of The Athletic recently described Cease coming to Queens as “unlikely” due to the expected acquisition cost. Whether that’s due to a lack of willingness to part with a high-end package in order to land Cease or if the club simply lacks the pieces necessary to get a deal done is unclear, however, as Sammon goes on to mention the club’s failed pursuit of Garrett Crochet earlier this winter. The Mets were among a number of teams interested in Crochet, but he ultimately was dealt to the Red Sox because, as Sammon writes, Boston was able to offer “higher-quality prospects” than the Mets were.

Sammon goes on to suggests that the Mets could swing a deal if the Padres’ asking price comes down through the spring or revisit talks at the trade deadline, when Cease would be less valuable due to an acquiring club no longer being able to extend him the Qualifying Offer. Of course, a Cease trade may be far less likely by the time the summer rolls around. The Padres will have to fill their vacancies in the lineup one way or another before the season begins, and if they manage to do so without dealing Cease it’s difficult to imagine the club then shifting gears and shipping Cease out in the middle of a pennant race unless they’ve fallen out of contention.

Felix Pena Signs With CPBL’s Uni-Lions

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Right-hander Felix Pena has signed on with the Uni-Lions of Taiwan’s Chinese Professional Baseball League (h/t to CPBL Stats).

Pena, 35 later this month, signed with the Cubs out of the Dominican Republic as an international amateur and made his pro debut all the way back in 2009. He gradually climbed the minor league ladder until he made his MLB debut back in 2016, when he debuted for Chicago and pitched decently in a brief cup of coffee at the big league level. The right-hander posted a 4.00 ERA (108 ERA+) in nine innings that season, striking out 37.1% of opponents in his limited playing time at the major league level en route to a 2.70 FIP. He was used in a similarly minor role with the Cubs in 2017, but that second trip to the majors left something to be desired in terms of results as he posted a lackluster 5.24 ERA (84 ERA+) in 34 1/3 innings of work thanks in part to a bloated 11.6% walk rate.

Those struggles in 2017 led the Cubs to designate Pena for assignment shortly after the 2017 season came to a close. He shipped to the Angels shortly thereafter, and wound up pitching for his new club as a starting pitcher for much of the 2018 season. His results were decent enough, as well: in 92 2/3 innings of work split between 17 starts and two relief outings, Pena surrendered a 4.18 ERA (101 ERA+) with a 4.04 FIP. He struck out a decent 21.9% of opponents and, more importantly, got his walk rate under control and allowed free passes at a 7.2% clip. That appeared to set Pena up for a crack at a full-season rotation job with the Halos in 2019, and he was part of the club’s Opening Day rotation at the beginning of the year.

Unfortunately for Pena, however, his first four starts of the 2019 season left much to be desired. While his 4.15 ERA was decent enough, Pena allowed four homers, surrendered seven walks, and hit three batters in just 17 1/3 innings of work while his strikeout rate dipped to 19.2%. That led the Angels to move him into a bulk role behind an opener, and he initially excelled in the role with a 3.03 ERA and 3.18 FIP over his next seven outings where he struck out 28.5% of opponents in 32 2/3 frames. Things took a turn for the worse during a disastrous month of June, however, as his issues with the long ball resurfaced and he posted a ghastly 7.97 ERA in five appearances totaling 20 1/3 innings. He pitched better (4.15 ERA, 3.48 FIP) once the calendar flipped to July and even played a key role in a combined no-hitter against the Mariners but saw his season cut short by a torn ACL.

By the time baseball resumed in late July of 2020 after the pandemic shutdown, Pena had recovered from his ACL tear and was back on the mound with the Angels. He was confined to a short relief role in 2020 but made the most of the role, posting a 4.05 ERA (113 ERA+) in 26 2/3 innings with excellent peripheral numbers including a 3.00 FIP and a 25.2% strikeout rate against a 7% walk rate. That performance figured to earn Pena another shot with the Angels in 2021, but a hamstring strain delayed his start to the season and he was torched to the tune of seven runs in less than two innings of work upon his return, prompting the Angels to outright him to the minor leagues.

That was Pena’s last time appearing in the majors. After struggling badly at Triple-A through the remainder of the 2021 season, the right-hander began the 2022 season with the Mets on a minor league deal but eventually headed overseas to sign with the KBO’s Hanwha Eagles. He spent parts of three seasons with the Eagles, posting a 3.98 ERA in 54 starts for the club, but struggled to a 6.27 ERA in his final nine KBO starts earlier this year. That prompted Hanwha to release Pena back in May, but now he’ll get a fresh start in Taiwan where he can provide veteran innings to a club that employed former big leaguers Hector Perez and Logan Ondrusek last season.

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