Heyman’s Latest: Ohtani, Machado, Cards, Pads, Hosmer, Ellsbury
It’s possible that Shohei Ohtani could make his decision on where to sign “by early next week,” according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). That gives us an idea of a potential timeline, though there’s still plenty of wiggle room.
Here’s more from Heyman on a variety of subjects:
- The Orioles have been receiving calls on third baseman Manny Machado, writes Heyman. While the O’s aren’t shopping Machado and don’t wish to move him, Heyman notes that Baltimore is also willing to at least entertain offers on any of its players, even Machado. Presumably, it’d take a staggeringly high offer to convince the O’s to part with Machado even in spite of the fact that he’s just a year removed from free agency. The Orioles have reportedly been pursuing upgrades in their rotation all winter as they seek to bolster their club for one more run with Machado, closer Zach Britton and center fielder Adam Jones at the forefront of their roster. Heyman notes that the O’s are also having internal discussions about whether to try for a Machado extension, though doing so would likely require a precedent-setting deal for the 25-year-old superstar, as Machado currently projects to hit free agency at the abnormally young age of 26.
- Sticking with the Orioles, Heyman says in his weekly notes post that the Rockies (previously reported) and Cardinals are among the teams that have shown some interest in Britton. It seems reasonable to suspect that Britton is more readily available than is Machado, given that Baltimore went well down the line on a possible deadline deal for the lefty. But that doesn’t mean the team will simply accept the top bid; in all likelihood, prying him loose will mean meeting the O’s asking price.
- Some around the game believe the Cardinals could at least consider trading outfielder Dexter Fowler, Heyman adds. St. Louis would only do so, he suggests, if they were able to move most of the salary. That seems mostly reasonable to expect, given that Fowler posted a sturdy .264/.363/.488 slash with a career-high 18 long balls in his first season with the Cards. As for whether a trade is likely, that seems dubious. Fowler has a no-trade clause and sounds like he is settling in nicely in St. Louis. And president of baseball operations John Mozeliak kicked off the offseason by telling Fowler he wasn’t planning on trading him.
- There’s more indication that the Padres are fairly serious about going after Eric Hosmer, says Heyman. He also reported yesterday that first baseman Wil Myers would be amenable to moving to the outfield to make way for Hosmer to play at first. Of course, whether the Pads are really willing to hand out a big enough contract to get a deal done remains to be seen.
- At shortstop, the Padres have taken a look at Phillies veteran Freddy Galvis, says Heyman. The team is also weighing free agent Alcides Escobar. Either would seemingly make sense as a stop-gap option for the rebuilding club.
- The Angels are looking harder at second basemen and first basemen than they are at the hot corner, says Heyman. It seems, then, that the club feels fairly content with Luis Valbuena taking the bulk of the time at third, though perhaps that could change depending upon what opportunities arise over the winter — and whether or not the team lands Ohtani. At second, the Halos have at last “looked at” Neil Walker, who’s said to be asking for three or four years.
- The Mets have taken looks at free agent first basemen Mitch Moreland and Adam Lind, relays Heyman. With 22-year-old Dominic Smith in place, Heyman suggests the Mets may opt for a short-term first base option with outfield experience. Both Moreland and Lind check those boxes, though Heyman notes that the Mets are unlikely to sign the former.
- Yankees center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury is slated to serve as a reserve yet again next season, but he’d like to remain with the club, per Heyman. Ellsbury’s full no-trade clause and the nearly $70MM left on his contract (including a $5MM buyout in 2021) figure to make dealing the 34-year-old a rather tall order for the Yanks.
Cubs Sign Tyler Chatwood
6:35pm: Jon Heyman of FanRag passes along further details on Chatwood’s deal (Twitter links). He’ll earn $12.5MM apiece in each of the first two years and $13MM in the third.
By operation of an escalator provision, that $13MM salary for 2020 will climb to $15MM if he earns an All-Star nod in each of the next two seasons or receives one Cy Young vote in either of those years. A single Cy Young vote in each of those two seasons would mean a $17MM salary for 2020. And Chatwood will also receive a $500K bonus if he’s traded.
12:29pm: The exact number on the deal is a $38MM guarantee, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports (Twitter link).
12:20pm: The Cubs announced on Thursday that they’ve agreed to a three-year contract with free agent right-hander Tyler Chatwood. The 27-year-old Chatwood, a client of Excel Sports Management, will receive “around $40MM” on the contract, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link).
Chatwood, who’ll turn 28 in a couple of weeks, was one of the youngest free agents on the market. It’s a significant payday for a player that has yet to experience sustained success at the big league level, but the right-hander was a popular free agent target due to a number of appealing secondary metrics including his velocity, ground-ball rate and spin rate. Chatwood posted a 4.69 ERA with 7.3 K/9 against 4.7 BB/9 in 147 2/3 innings with the Rockies this past season, though in addition to his age and promising peripherals, he’s long performed considerably better away from the hitters’ haven of Coors Field.
In the past two years since returning from a second career Tommy John surgery, Chatwood has started 52 games (in addition to eight relief appearances) and totaled 305 2/3 innings with a 4.27 ERA. Those numbers don’t exactly leap out, but they also feature a dramatic home/road split: a 6.07 ERA and 21 homers allowed at Coors Field and a 2.57 ERA with 14 homers allowed on the road.
As I noted when sorting through some free-agent starters by individual skill set, Chatwood represents the hardest-throwing starter on the market and also boasts the best ground-ball rate and one of the lowest hard-contact rates in free agency. He also posted the 29th-highest spin rate on his four-seam fastball and the fifth-best spin rate on his curveball, per Statcast (min. 100 of each pitch type).
That said, the near-$13MM average annual value of the deal comes in well north of the three-year deal projected by MLBTR when ranking Chatwood 29th on our Top 50 list of the available free agents. The contract serves as a reminder that now, more than ever, teams are willing to look beyond traditional metrics like earned run average and beyond a player’s past performance and instead pay for projected output in the coming years.
The Cubs have a clear need in the rotation with both Jake Arrieta and John Lackey departing via free agency. He’ll slot into the fourth spot in the rotation behind Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Jose Quintana at present, though it still seems likely that Chicago will add another arm to help round out the starting five. As a finalist for Nippon Professional Baseball star Shohei Ohtani, the Cubs could find out in the very near future if he’ll be the final piece to that puzzle. If not, they’ll presumably hit the trade market and explore further free agent additions at next week’s Winter Meetings in Orlando.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Athletics Designate Joey Wendle For Assignment
The Athletics have designated infielder Joey Wendle for assignment, according to an announcement from the team. Oakland jettisoned Wendle to make room on its 40-man roster for newly signed reliever Yusmeiro Petit, whose deal with the club is now official.
Now 27, Wendle has been a member of the Oakland organization since December 2014, when it acquired him from the Indians for slugger Brandon Moss. Wendle has spent the vast majority of his A’s tenure with their Triple-A affiliate and slashed .285/.325/.441 across 1,654 plate appearances at that level. He made his big league debut in 2016 during a 104-PA showing and added another 14 plate trips last season. All told, Wendle has hit a less-than-stellar .266/.305/.339 as a member of the A’s, with whom he has lined up solely at second base.
Royals Sign Scott Barlow To MLB Deal
The Royals announced today that they have signed righty Scott Barlow to a MLB contract. It’s a split deal that would pay Barlow $650K in the majors and $225K in the minors, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets.
Barlow, who’ll soon turn 25, has yet to reach the majors. He became a minor-league free agent at the end of the season, wrapping up a six-year run in the Dodgers organization that began when he was taken in the sixth round of the 2011 draft.
It seems the Royals are optimistic that Barlow can contribute at the game’s highest level. He has functioned mostly as a starter in the minors, with mixed results as he has climbed the latter. In 107 1/3 Double-A frames in 2017, Barlow ran up a 2.10 ERA with 10.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. But he was not nearly as good in his 32 1/3 Triple-A innings, coughing up 7.24 earned per nine with 10.0 K/9 and an ugly 6.4 BB/9.
Mariners Acquire Dee Gordon
The Mariners have officially struck a deal with the Marlins to acquire second baseman Dee Gordon. Seattle will also pick up $1MM in international spending capacity. Righty Nick Neidert is going back to Miami along with fellow prospects Christopher Torres and Robert Dugger.
It’s a rather stunning move that was not at all anticipated for a Seattle organization that has highly-paid star Robinson Cano at Gordon’s accustomed position of second base. But the M’s have a plan, it seems: Gordon will move to center field, according to Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio (Twitter link) and as Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto confirms (via Divish, on Twitter).
The Marlins have been working hard to pare salary this winter, and that meant finding a taker for the 29-year-old Gordon’s contract. He’s promised another $38MM through the 2020 season, including a buyout on a $14MM option for 2021, all of which will be assumed by the Mariners. Other players are sure to follow Gordon out of Miami.
As for the Mariners, adding Gordon will account for the loss of Jarrod Dyson to free agency. Gordon certainly has the speed for the outfield, though it remains to be seen how his glove will translate after a ten professional seasons spent exclusively in the middle infield. Range surely won’t be a problem, as Gordon has led the National League in stolen bases in three of the past four seasons.
Wheels, of course, are also Gordon’s calling card on offense, where he’s among the game’s most valuable baserunners. So long as he can maintain something like his 2017 slash line — .308/.341/.375 — Gordon ought to be a solid enough performer with the bat to be a net positive in terms of creating runs. That’s shy of the .333/.359/.418 output Gordon posted in his breakout 2015 season, but approximately league-average hitting with a bit more upside is plenty given Gordon’s other attributes.
[RELATED: Updated Mariners & Marlins Depth Charts]
Gordon has been a quality regular for three of the past four years. But that other season — an unfortunate 2016 campaign — is cause for some concern. Gordon’s tepid offensive work (.268/.305/.335 in 346 plate appearances) is worth noting, but his 80-game PED suspension is yet more troubling. It’s at least promising that he was able to bounce back on the field in the ensuing year.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the M’s are gaining an additional $1MM in international bonus capacity. That, no doubt, will go to the team’s efforts to land Japanese star Shohei Ohtani. Seattle now has just over $3.5MM in pool space — and just slightly more than any other Ohtani pursuer.
For the Marlins, clearing the salary was the top priority. But they won’t come away empty handed. A second-round pick in 2015, Neidert dominated in 19 High-A starts last year, posting a 2.76 ERA with 9.4 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 over 104 1/3 innings. But he fell flat upon a promotion to Double-A, surrendering 17 earned runs on 33 hits and recording just 13 strikeouts against five walks in his 23 1/3 innings there. And Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweets that scouts have not been all that high on Neidert’s future prospects in the majors.
Neidert rated among the best prospects in a generally lightly regarded Seattle farm, while Torres also cracks the top ten on MLB.com’s most recent list. He’s a speedy, young, switch-hitting shortstop who has quite a lot of development but also real promise. The 22-year-old Duggar, meanwhile, is a recent collegiate product who carried a 2.00 ERA in 72 Class A frames split between the rotation and the pen in 2017. Though his results weren’t as impressive after a mid-season promotion, he managed 9.3 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 along with a 3.94 ERA in his 45 2/3 frames at High-A.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the deal (Twitter link). Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio tweeted Neidert’s inclusion, while Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweeted the other prospects. Tim Healey of the Sun Sentinel reported that the Mariners would assume Gordon’s full contract, while Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted the inclusion of the bonus pool money.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Wilin Rosario To Sign With NPB’s Hanshin Tigers
1:37pm: Rosario is set to sign with the Hanshin Tigers, Crasnick now tweets, confirming several reports out of Japan.
10:39am: Former big league catcher Wilin Rosario, who has starred in the Korea Baseball Organization for the past two seasons and drew some interest from MLB clubs in free agency this offseason, is nearing a deal with a yet-unidentified team in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter).
The near deal with an NPB club seems to close the book on a potential MLB return for Rosario at present. It’s not clear which teams were interested in him, or to what extent he was pursued, but it’s not uncommon for former big leaguers to land lucrative deals in Japan.
Rosario’s glovework as a catcher was widely panned during his MLB tenure, leading to increased time at first base in near the end of his run in the Majors. He’s played first base in Korea as well and had plenty of success at the plate there, batting a combined .330/.390/.625 with 70 home runs in 1042 plate appearances with the Hanwha Eagles from 2016-17. Rosario batted .282/.314/.507 with 49 homers with the Rockies from 2012-13 but saw that production dip to a more pedestrian .268/.301/.427 in 2014-15 — his final two seasons playing with the Rox.
Mariners Notes: Rotation, Gamel, Iwakuma, Moll
The Mariners feel they need to bolster their rotation and are likely to increase their efforts to add a starter on the trade and free-agent markets if they miss out on right-hander Shohei Ohtani, Bob Dutton reports (Twitter links). If the Mariners are successful in luring Ohtani to Seattle, however, they’ll likely focus more on beefing up the bullpen and adding an outfielder to the mix. Certainly, the Mariners are doing everything in their power to be able to make the best offer possible to Ohtani, as they’ve now traded prospects Thyago Vieira (to the White Sox) and David Banuelos (to the Twins) to add an additional $1.5MM worth of international bonus allotments.
A few more notes out of Seattle…
- General manager Jerry Dipoto has spoken recently about his team’s desire for versatility on the roster, and to that end, the Mariners are asking Ben Gamel to work out at first base this offseason and in Spring Training, tweets Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Gamel, 25, turned in a solid .275/.322/.413 batting line with 11 homers last year and is capable of handling all three outfield spots already. Seattle picked up Ryon Healy to serve as its primary first baseman in 2018 and beyond, though certainly the ability to give Gamel some reps at first would give manager Scott Servais additional flexibility when filling out the lineup card.
- Dipoto joined Aaron Goldsmith on the third installment of the Mariners’ new “Wheelhouse” podcast and, as he has in the previous two episodes, discussed a host of topics that Mariners fans will want to hear. Notably, Dipoto tells Goldsmith that Hisashi Iwakuma (who recently signed a minor league deal with the Mariners) will be in Spring Training on a throwing program and, if all goes well, will be ready to pitch by mid-May. Dipoto gushes about Iwakuma’s work ethic and ability to sequence pitches to deceive hitters and says that he hopes the remainder of Iwakuma’s days as a player are spent in a Mariners uniform.
- Also of note, Dipoto explains that the Mariners are going to try to convert waiver claim Sam Moll from a reliever back into a starter. Dipoto notes that Moll has a solid riding fastball in the 90-94 mph range and a changeup that helps him generate grounders, as well as a breaking pitch that trails behind his other two offerings somewhat in quality. Moll has only started six games as a professional but was a starter in college and intrigues the Mariners in that role. At minimum, Dipoto says the Mariners view Moll as a multi-inning relief candidate with a pair of minor league options, giving them some nice flexibility next year.
Mariners, Casey Lawrence Agree To Minor League Deal
The Mariners have agreed to bring back right-hander Casey Lawrence on a minor league contract, per Baseball America’s Matt Eddy. He’d previously been outrighted off the 40-man roster and become a free agent. Presumably, he’ll be in Major League camp this coming spring.
The 30-year-old Lawrence proved to be an oft-used depth piece for an injury-plagued Mariners staff in 2017. After being claimed off outright waivers (out of the Blue Jays’ system) in early May, Lawrence was recalled to the Majors on four separate occasions by the Mariners through season’s end.
All told, Lawrence tossed 42 innings for the M’s, and while his 5.57 ERA wasn’t pretty, he did average 9.6 K/9 against a respectable 3.0 BB/9 mark in his 23 appearances. Home runs proved to be a significant problem for the rookie, though, as he also averaged 1.93 big flies per nine innings pitched in Seattle. Metrics like xFIP (3.87) and SIERA (3.68) reviewed Lawrence’s work far more favorably than his ERA (due largely to those K/BB numbers), but he’ll need to rein in the home runs if he’s to have any sort of chance at success in the Majors.
Orioles Notes: Gonzalez, Goins, Santander, Tejada
The Orioles are interested in a reunion with free-agenty righty Miguel Gonzalez and are one of at least three clubs to show interest in the 33-year-old thus far in the offseason, reports Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. Gonzalez, who’ll turn 34 next May, made 27 starts between the White Sox and Rangers last year, logging a rather pedestrian 4.62 ERA with 5.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 36.7 percent ground-ball rate over the life of 156 innings. Gonzalez spent the first four seasons of his career, 2012-15, as a member of the Orioles’ rotation and has enjoyed the most success of his career wearing an O’s uniform. He’s hardly a high-upside option, but the O’s are looking to add as many as three starters to the rotation this offseason, and Gonzalez could likely be had on a one-year deal, so he could conceivably step into the fifth slot in the Baltimore rotation next year.
A bit more on the O’s…
- The latest column from Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com runs down a number of Orioles topics, including whether left-hander Chris Lee should be viewed as a starter or reliever heading into 2018 and how much time Mark Trumbo should be expected to see in right field (as opposed to at designated hitter). On the topic of the team’s utility infielder, Kubatko cites recently non-tendered Ryan Goins as an option in Baltimore. The Orioles have seen Goins up close with the Blue Jays for years, and while he’s just a career .228/.275/.335 hitter in nearly 1400 plate appearances, he comes with a sterling defensive reputation (despite a season of abnormally poor marks at shortstop in 2017).
- Kubatko also examines whether the Orioles will carry switch-hitting outfielder Anthony Santander on their roster to open the season. The 23-year-old Santander was Baltimore’s pick in the 2016 Rule 5 Draft, but a forearm injury kept him on the disabled list for most of the 2017 campaign. Santander was activated in mid August but still needs another 44 days on the active roster before his Rule 5 status expires, per Kubatko, who notes that the Indians would take Santander back if offered the opportunity. Baltimore plucked Santander out of the Cleveland system despite the fact that he’d never played above Class-A Advanced, but he tore through a 15-game rehab assignment in Double-A last year (.380/.458/.780 with five homers) and is considered one of the better prospects in the Orioles’ system. It seems likely that the O’s will want to hang onto him, and in a worst-case scenario they could simply option him to the minors after the season’s first 44 days, should he prove in need of more development.
- Following the Orioles’ announcement of a new minor league deal with Ruben Tejada, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reported (on Twitter) that the infielder’s deal comes with a $1.35MM base salary and another $600K of available incentives if he makes the Major League roster. Tejada, who turned 28 in October, will be in camp vying for a bench spot after hitting .230/.293/.283 in 124 PAs with the Orioles and .280/.357/.440 in 197 PAs at the Triple-A level in 2017. Luis Sardinas and Steve Wilkerson could be his primary competition right now, though as Kubatko suggests, the O’s could very well add further infield depth in the months to come.
Shohei Ohtani Rumors: Wednesday
Shohei Ohtani has completed meetings with the seven finalists for his services, reportedly going through an exhaustive set of seven face-to-face meetings in Los Angeles over a 48-hour period. Now that he’s met with each of the Mariners, Padres, Cubs, Angels, Rangers, Dodgers and Giants, Ohtani will spend anywhere from the next few days to the next two weeks deciding on where he’ll sign his first pro contract in the United States. He has until Dec. 22 to make that call, though the expeditious manner in which he met with the finalists lends some speculative optimism that he could reach a conclusion well before that deadline.
Here’s the latest on Ohtani…
- Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription required & recommended) that there are those in the game who wonder if Ohtani’s decision has already been made. The expedited manner in which Ohtani eliminated 23 teams and then met with seven finalists has been a point of frustration for some clubs, Rosenthal writes, noting that execs from some East coast teams have privately wondered why they were asked to put so much time into their presentations for Ohtani when he ultimately eliminated the East coast in one swoop.
Earlier Updates
- Giants GM Bobby Evans tells John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle that in addition to manager Bruce Bochy and several front office executives, the Giants brought Buster Posey to their meeting with Ohtani and his representatives. Ohtani’s translator said at the meeting that the 23-year-old was impressed by Posey’s “great aura, and Evans tells Shea that Ohtani has watched and admired Posey’s play in the World Series and other settings. The Giants envision Ohtani starting once per week, and Evans wouldn’t even rule out the possibility of him playing some center field. “Some scouts see him being able to play all three [outfield positions] very capably,” says Evans. “It’s a matter of what’s best for him.”
- In an excellent column at MLB.com, Mike Petriello utilizes Statcast to break down Ohtani’s skills and generate comps based on current big league stars. MLB.com obtained Trackman data on Ohtani’s 2017 season, giving them 231 plate appearances and six starts to dive into, and while the sample is small, it’s certainly enough to see some trends in terms of velocity, spin rate and average exit velocity. Per Petriello, Ohtani’s average 97.5 mph fastball would’ve ranked second among MLB starters, and his max velocity of 101.6 mph would rank among the hardest pitches thrown by any starter in the Statcast era. The velocity and spin rate on Ohtani’s fastball are strikingly similar to Luis Severino, Petriello points out (though spin rate may not be a direct comp due to the different balls used between MLB and NPB). On the offensive side of the coin, Ohtani’s max 111.1 mph exit velocity was greater than the hardest-hit ball of more than 70 percent of MLB players in ’17. His exit velo on fly-balls and liners ranks alongside several of the game’s top overall sluggers. The fascinating column only further builds intrigue around what Ohtani can do in a Major League setting.
- Fangraphs’ Travis Sawchik, meanwhile, notes that the Cubs can offer a unique benefit that no other suitor can: (relatively) limited travel time. While all Major League players spend an obscene amount of time flying from destination to destination, the Cubs’ setting in the Midwest means they travel as many as 10,000 miles less per season than the Rangers and upwards of 23,000 fewer miles than the Angels and Mariners in a given season (based on Chris Ford’s mileage estimates for the 2017 campaign). It may be a minor benefit, but as Sawchik notes, for a player whose recovery time will be monitored closely than just about any in baseball as he attempts the rigors of two-way play (at least to some extent), there’s some degree of appeal.