AL East Notes: Rays, Jones, Tanaka
In a fascinating article about the potential of a new Rays ballpark in Tampa Bay, Steve Contorno of the Tampa Bay Times gives insight into property trading as a method for acquiring land on which to build a new stadium. The mechanism is fairly simple at its core; Hillsborough County would trade parcels of valuable government-owned land near the downtown area to private property owners in exchange for their land in the Channel District-Ybor City area, where the county would like to build a new stadium. County Attorney Chip Fletcher confirmed with the Tampa Bay Times that the county is looking into these trades as a way to lower the cost of acquiring new property for a ballpark. Contorno’s piece offers a deep look into all the factors the county must consider when deciding whether this method truly makes sense from a business perspective. Rays fans (and Tampa Bay taxpayers) might enjoy learning about the complexities of the situation Hillsborough County faces.
More from around the American League’s Eastern Division…
- While much has been made of stud third baseman Manny Machado‘s potential exit from the Orioles after 2018, Rich Dubroff of PressBoxOnline.com examines the situation of another O’s icon in his final year; center fielder Adam Jones. Jones has manned center for ten consecutive years in Baltimore, thanks to a six-year, $85.5MM extension that made Dan Duquette’s front office look brilliant. Because Jones is a leader in the clubhouse and current franchise icon, Dubroff places a heavy weight on the decision Baltimore faces in whether or not to retain him. Jones has been worth 28.8 fWAR as a member of the Orioles’ organization, compiling 248 home runs and 802 RBI across 6,221 plate appearances while posting a .279/.319/.468 slash line, good for 109 wRC+. As of right now, the only guarantees the Orioles have on the books beyond 2018 are those of Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo and Darren O’Day, the latter two of whom become free agents after the 2019 season.
- Is Masahiro Tanaka pitching his way off the Yankees roster? That’s the question Joel Sherman of the New York Post asked on Friday. Within three days of the conclusion of the World Series, Tanaka can choose to opt out of the final three years and $67MM on his contract. The former Japanese star is strengthening his value with each of his elite postseason starts so far in 2017, but his case for a larger contract goes beyond the postseason alone. While Sherman opines that Tanaka was expected not to opt out before October, that notion seems to entirely ignore the right-hander’s elite second half. After the All-Star break, Tanaka posted a 3.77 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP, with a wicked 10.73 K/9 and 1.65 BB/9. Strong peripheral stats, such as a 2.83 xFIP, point to Tanaka being one of the AL’s best starters during that span. Questions remain about the health of his elbow and his ability to keep the ball in the park, but as things stand right now, it seems likely that Tanaka could earn more than $67MM if he were to opt out and test the open market.
Latest on the Nationals’ Managerial Search
The Nationals announced on Friday that they will not bring back Dusty Baker as manager for the 2018 season, despite praise from his players and rumblings that the two sides had been discussing a reunion in recent days. In fact, the club intends to replace the entire coaching staff. The decision comes in the wake of yet another tough NLDS loss for a club that fought injuries to many key players in order to grab the NL’s second-best regular season record.
A few other clubs began their managerial search well before the Nationals, and at least one option (Ron Gardenhire, now with the Tigers) is off the table. The Red Sox appear to be nearing the end of their search as well. Another factor that could limit the club’s options is the organization’s pattern with the lengths of their managerial contracts. In the past decade, the Nationals have never been willing to guarantee a manager more than two years at a time, a factor that could be a deal breaker to certain candidates also in the mix for jobs with other clubs.
On Saturday, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported on Twitter that the Nationals have requested permission from the Astros to interview Astros bench coach. Some reports from Boston media outlets say that Cora is already tabbed to manage the Red Sox in 2018, and that the club is simply waiting until after the ALCS to announce the news. A source close to Evan Drellich of NBC Boston even told him, “Not a doubt it is [Cora].” But the invitation to interview with the Nationals could certainly throw a wrench into this rumor.
The 42 year-old Cora played mostly in the middle infield throughout his 14-year major league career, including a 2011 stint with the Nationals in his final year before retirement. Many have spoken highly of Cora’s presence in the clubhouse during that time, which would prove valuable on a Washington team with a lot of young talent on the roster.
Theo Epstein Discusses Cubs’ Offseason Plans
Putting a wrap on the 2017 season, Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein spoke with the media today (as covered by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times and Patrick Mooney of NBC Sports Chicago, among others).
While the Cubs did not quite live up to expectations — the team won *only* 92 games and did not return to the World Series — Epstein suggests that any failure is only relative to the lofty standards the organization now carries. The team’s competitive window is still fully open, he argues, saying that the Cubs are “really well positioned for the future.”
That said, it’s tough to deny that the roster showed more weak points than had been anticipated — a subject also addressed today by Dave Cameron of Fangraphs. With several key pitchers heading to free agency, some bullpen failings, and questions in the outfield, it seems there could be an opening for relatively significant change this offseason.
Epstein hardly promised a shake-up, but did suggest a willingness to consider trading from a stock of players that may have been seen as mostly off-limits in the not-so-distant past:
“Sooner or later you reach a point where you have to strongly consider sacrificing some of that depth to address needs elsewhere on the club. We’re entering a phase where we have to be really open-minded to that if it makes the overall outlook of the team and organization better.”
That said, the approach doesn’t seem to be one where the Cubs will select a particular player and shop them around. Rather, Epstein suggested, the organization intends to take in a wide array of possibilities — “pursue all avenues to get better” — and consider each opportunity on its own merit. Generally, he said, the team is “prepared to make some tough choices” and is interested in exploring ways to address “obvious deficits” from those areas of “real surplus.”
It’s not to difficult to guess at some of the broad strokes here. Beyond the untouchable superstars, the team has a variety of talented young position players — Albert Almora, Ian Happ, Javier Baez, Addison Russell, and Kyle Schwarber, most prominently — that overlap to some degree with other members of the roster. And the Cubs believe they have more starting-caliber players than can receive regular time on one roster. Given the need to replace starters Jake Arrieta and John Lackey, as well as to find a new closer and add some “pure strike throwers” in the bullpen (as Epstein put it), the stage could be set for some interesting trade chatter over the winter.
NL Notes: Baker, Kelley, Lynn, Bell
The Nationals sparked some backlash today with the surprising decision not to retain manager Dusty Baker. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was particularly incensed, slamming the organization not only for the substance of the move, but also for leaving Baker dangling in the wind for the past week-and-a-half. Baker tells Nightengale that he’s “surprised and disappointed” after leading the team to two-straight NL East titles but also failing to advance past the NLDS. It’s worth keeping some perspective here: after all, Baker is a highly-compensated professional and this is a results-oriented business. But the move does seem somewhat confusing from the outside and certainly fits the ever-growing record of questionable interactions between ownership and managers in D.C. Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post also examined the risk the club is taking with the switch.
More from the National League:
- Nationals reliever Shawn Kelley has received a stem-cell injection in his troublesome right elbow, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post tweets. The hope is that the treatment, combined with a full offseason of rest, will allow Kelley to return at full health next year. He is not expected to require any surgery at this time. Kelley, who is slated to earn another $5.5MM in the final season of his contract, somehow allowed a dozen home runs in just 26 innings in 2017 while also maintaining a 13.5% swinging-strike rate. Given his history of quality relief work, perhaps there’s still hope that he can contribute once again in 2018.
- Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tackled a host of interesting Cardinals questions in his latest chat, some highlights of which are available here. Of particular note, he says it’s no secret that righty Lance Lynn is going to seek a big contract — something on the order of Jordan Zimmermann‘s $110MM guarantee — in free agency. While St. Louis has interest in retaining Lynn, there doesn’t seem to be much chance of it entering that stratosphere to do so. (Whether any other teams will do so seems questionable, too.)
- Meanwhile, the Cardinals have lost bench coach David Bell to the Giants, where he’ll serve as the VP of player development. That could kick off some other changes for these two organizations, both of which are looking to bounce back from postseason misses in 2017 (and a much more serious collapse in the case of San Francisco). Bell had worked in the St. Louis dugout since 2014. The twelve-year MLB veteran spent time with both organizations during his playing career.
Jake Petricka Undergoes Elbow Surgery
White Sox righty Jake Petricka underwent a nerve transposition and flexor tendon debridement in his right elbow, Chris Kuc of the Chicago Tribune writes. He’ll require about three to four months of rest and rehab before he’ll be able to resume throwing.
Petricka, 29, compiled 26 strikeouts against just six walks in his 25 2/3 innings of action this year, though he also coughed up twenty earned runs on 39 hits while battling through elbow issues. That wasn’t quite the year he hoped for after missing much of 2016 following hip surgery.
The South Siders paid Petricka $900K in 2017 and project to owe him about $1.1MM for the season to come. That’s not a lot of scratch for a pitcher that turned in 144 1/3 frames of 3.24 ERA ball through his first three seasons in the majors, though it remains to be seen whether the Sox will want to promise a 40-man spot to Petricka — particularly if there’s any concern as to how he’ll bounce back from the surgery.
Whether or not Petricka is retained, the organization will be in need of quite a lot of bullpen depth after dealing away multiple veterans over the course of the 2017 campaign. Just how much payroll the organization intends to commit in what’s sure to be a losing season isn’t yet known, but it’s a good bet that the team will bring in a handful or two of experienced hurlers to battle for roster spots in camp — while also keeping an eye out for waiver claim and Rule 5 opportunities.
Agency Changes: Chad Green, Dinelson Lamet
As always, we track agency changes here at MLBTR in our Agency Database. Here are the latest notable changes in player representation, both courtesy of ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter links):
- Yankees righty Chad Green is moving his business to Frontline, per the report, joining a pitching-heavy client list led by Dallas Keuchel and Andrew Miller. Though he showed promise with intriguing strikeout and walk numbers in 2016, Green’s 2017 campaign came as an eye opener. In 69 frames over 40 appearances, he punched out 13.4 batters per nine while walking just 2.2 and carrying a sterling 1.83 ERA. Green sat at about 96 mph with his average heater and racked up a strong 15.0% swinging-strike rate.
- Meanwhile, intriguing young Padres righty Dinelson Lamet has hired Magnus Sports, an agency known for its long list of clients from Latin America. Among the outfit’s most recognizable players is a trio of notable Yankees (Aroldis Chapman, Gary Sanchez, and Starlin Castro). Lamet exhibited some walk and home run difficulties in his debut season, but also racked up 10.9 K/9 and produced a 4.57 ERA in 114 1/3 innings. If he can build upon that opening work, Lamet could become a key part of a hopeful new rotation core in San Diego.
Official Super Two Cutoff
Super Two status allows certain players to reach arbitration — significantly boosting their earnings — before they achieve three full years of MLB service. Whether or not a player qualifies, which is determined by ascertaining the top 22 percent of MLB players with between two and three years of service time — makes a huge difference in their salary not only for the coming season, but also the ensuing years of arbitration.
This year, the service-time cutoff will land at two years and 123 days, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports on Twitter. Players that have accumulated at least that much service time will therefore be eligible for salary arbitration, so long as they spent at least 86 days on the active roster in 2017.
You can find MLBTR’s arbitration projections for the coming offseason right here. Among the players listed there, the Twins’ Eddie Rosario will instead have to settle for the league minimum (with a raise, if any, given at the sole discretion of his team).
Here’s how this year’s cutoff compares to recent years:
- 2016: 2.131
- 2015: 2.130
- 2014: 2.133
- 2013: 2.122
- 2012: 2.140
- 2011: 2.146
- 2010: 2.122
- 2009: 2.139
It’s easy to see the impact of Super Two status with a few examples. Sam Dyson put up some middling numbers in 2017, but still projects to take home $4.6MM because of his lofty salary starting point. George Springer is expected to earn $8.9MM in his 3+ service-class year because of last year’s Super Two salary (and his outstanding intervening campaign).
The aforementioned Rosario, meanwhile, projected at $3.5MM but will instead likely not even earn one-fifth of that amount for the 2018 season (depending upon the generosity of his employer) since he landed under the line. Meanwhile, players such as Corey Knebel, Maikel Franco, and Felipe Rivero project to top $3MM in earnings. As for 2016 NL MVP Kris Bryant, the Cubs’ controversial decision to keep him off the Opening Day roster in 2015 will still leave the team with an added year of control, but he is projected to bring home a monster $8.9MM salary as a Super Two, perhaps setting the stage for a record-setting run through the arb process.
Daniel Murphy Undergoes Knee Surgery
The Nationals announced today that second baseman Daniel Murphy underwent successful surgery on his right knee. A debridement and microfracture procedure was performed.
It’s not known at this point just how long of a rehabilitation Murphy will require. The team did say that his “rehab will begin immediately and will progress throughout the offseason.”
Obviously, details are not clear at this point; indeed, there was no prior indication that this course of treatment would be required. But Murphy will have at least four months or so to heal before the start of spring camp. For one point of reference, Justin Turner underwent a microfracture procedure at the end of the 2015 campaign and was ready to go for Opening Day the following year.
Murphy, 32, wasn’t quite as outstanding this year as in his first campaign in D.C. But he was plenty effective, posting a .322/.384/.543 slash with 23 home runs over 593 plate appearances. If he can maintain anything approaching those numbers in 2018, Murphy will once again easily be worth much more than his salary — though it’s worth noting that his rate of pay jumps to $17.5MM in the final season of the deal.
Tigers Inform Anibal Sanchez His Option Will Be Declined
In a widely expected move, the Tigers will decline their $16MM option on right-hander Anibal Sanchez in favor of a $5MM buyout, general manager Al Avila told reporters today (Twitter link via Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press). Sanchez will become a free agent once the option is formally bought out following the World Series.
The 33-year-old Sanchez signed a five-year, $80MM contract with the Tigers that spanned the 2013-17 seasons and turned in a sensational campaign in the first year of that deal. In 182 innings that year, Sanchez captured the American League ERA title with a mark of 2.57, averaging 10.0 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 along the way. He finished fourth in the AL Cy Young voting and was worth roughly six wins above replacement per both fWAR and rWAR. Though he was limited to 126 innings in 2014, Sanchez was again quite good, logging a 3.43 ERA with improved control but diminished strikeouts.
Since contributing about nine wins’ worth of value in those first two seasons, though, the Sanchez contract has been regrettable for the Tigers. He’s logged a total of 415 2/3 innings in that time and surrendered 262 earned runs (5.67 ERA) on the strength of 462 hits (85 homers) and 131 walks. Sanchez still shows a penchant for missing bats (8.2 K/9 over the final three years of the deal, 8.9 K/9 in 2017), but his ground-ball rate has eroded and he’s become stunningly homer prone.
[Detroit Tigers Depth Chart | Detroit Tigers Payroll Outlook]
The rebuilding Tigers, who introduced Ron Gardenhire as their new manager earlier today, will happily shed that $16MM annual commitment from their books and turn to younger rotation options. In 2018, they’ll likely lean on Michael Fulmer, Daniel Norris, Matthew Boyd and veteran Jordan Zimmermann (who is on an undesirable contract himself) in the first four spots of their rotation. While the Tigers have several in-house options for that fifth spot, they’re also in a nice position to take a flyer on a veteran reclamation project in hopes of flipping him for some value at next year’s trade deadline, as I examined in their installment of MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series.
With Sanchez off the books, the Tigers still have $97MM owed to four current players (Miguel Cabrera, Zimmermann, Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler) and two former players (Prince Fielder, Justin Verlander). The Tigers also have another $25MM worth of projected arbitration salaries, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. An offseason trade of Kinsler and/or the non-tendering or trades of an arbitration-eligible player or two would obviously alter that payroll projection.
As for Sanchez, he’ll hit the open market in search of a spot to restore his value — very likely on a one-year deal with a low base salary or on a minor league pact. While he struggled as both a starter and reliever this season, Sanchez did post very solid K/BB numbers throughout the year — particularly upon returning from a month-long stint in Triple-A. He enjoyed solid eight-start run upon his return from the minors (4.37 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 37-to-10 K/BB ratio in 45 1/3 innings) and finished out the year with 23 innings of 2.70 ERA ball and a 31-to-7 K/BB ratio.
Suffice it to say, Sanchez was the picture of inconsistency in 2017 — often showing glimpses of his former excellence but also too frequently giving the Tigers little chance to compete. He yielded four or more earned runs in eight of his 17 starts and five or more earned runs on five occasions. Sanchez also posted the worst HR/9 mark of any pitcher with 100 or more innings in 2017 (2.22), and no starter with at least 400 innings has been as homer-prone as Sanchez (1.84 HR/9) dating back to the 2015 season.
Dusty Baker Will Not Return As Nationals’ Manager In 2018
12:05pm: General manager Mike Rizzo tells reporters that the decision had nothing to do with contractual negotiations (Twitter links via Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post). In fact, there were never any actual negotiations, and no contract was offered to Baker. “Winning a lot of regular season games and winning divisions is not enough,” said Rizzo.
11:11am: The Nationals announced on Friday that Dusty Baker will not return as the team’s manager for the 2018 season. Baker’s contract only ran through the 2017 season, but the two sides had reportedly been discussing the possibility of a reunion prior to today’s announcement. The Nats offered the following statement in their release:
“The Lerner family, on behalf of the entire organization, would like to thank Baker for his two years in the dugout. He led the team to the first back-to-back division titles in our history and represented our club with class on and off the field. We wish him the best going forward.
The contracts for the Major League coaching staff have also expired. The Nationals’ search for a new manager will begin immediately, and we will work with that person to build his coaching staff.”
Baker, 68, won 95 games in his debut season with the Nationals last year and followed that up with a 97-win campaign in 2017 despite myriad injuries to key players (e.g. Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper) and an early-season bullpen mess. Rumblings about his lack of a contract for the 2018 season began to surface this summer, but the general consensus while the Nationals were winning during the regular season was that the two sides would eventually work out an agreement to extend their relationship.
That calculus may have changed with yet another Division Series exit for the Nationals, who despite winning the division four times in the past six years, have never advanced to the National League Championship Series. Baker’s Nats fought the Cubs tooth and nail, hanging on until the final out of what proved to be a 9-8 loss in Game 5. Certainly, it’s easy to second-guess any number of managerial decisions with the benefit of hindsight following a postseason exit, though the placement of Jayson Werth in the second spot of the batting order over NL MVP candidate Anthony Rendon (who hit sixth) was panned throughout the Division Series. The communication mishap surrounding Stephen Strasburg’s Game 4 start also appeared to reflect poorly.
That said, it’s difficult to place the blame for another early exit on Baker’s shoulders — particularly after a 97-win season. Baker’s players often voiced admiration and praise as his contract situation lingered in an unresolved state, but the Nats will now be looking for their fourth permanent manager since the 2011 season. Since the franchise moved from Montreal to Washington, D.C. in 2005, the Nationals have had six permanent managers (plus interim skipper John McLaren) in 13 years. No manager has lasted more than three seasons at the team’s helm.
For Baker, the lack of a contract extension is undoubtedly disheartening. He’s voiced on multiple occasions in recent months that he still has a desire to manage and will depart a team that remains stacked with talent and looks very much like a the NL East favorite once again in 2018. There are, of course, other managerial vacancies which Baker can pursue should he choose. While the Tigers formally named Ron Gardenhire their new manager on Friday, the Mets, Phillies and Red Sox are all still without skippers for the 2018 season.
All of those teams are quite a ways into their managerial searches, though, with the Red Sox reported to be particularly close to the end. Baker could also take a year off and once again pursue managerial opportunities that arise following the 2018 campaign, though it’d hardly be a surprise to see his name connected to any of those searches.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.