Quick Hits: C. Seager, Cubs, Rangers, Red Sox
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is optimistic shortstop Corey Seager will be able to return for the World Series, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com was among those to report (Twitter link). “Corey doesn’t want to be denied,” Roberts said of Seager, who missed the Dodgers’ five-game National League Championship Series triumph over the Cubs with a lower back sprain. Reserve Charlie Culberson provided surprisingly excellent production at shortstop against the Cubs, hitting .455/.417/.818 in 13 plate appearances, but he’s obviously not in Seager’s stratosphere. Seager has opened his career with two superstar-caliber seasons and is arguably the Dodgers’ top position player.
More from around the game:
- The Cubs’ firing of pitching coach Chris Bosio on Saturday was manager Joe Maddon’s decision, Paul Sullivan and Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune report. Maddon’s relationship with Bosio deteriorated as the season progressed, per Sullivan and Gonzales, who add that Mike Maddux and the previously reported Jim Hickey are candidates to serve as the Cubs’ next pitching coach. Maddux was the Nationals’ pitching coach over the past two years, but his time with the club ended with manager Dusty Baker’s exit. Hickey, meanwhile, is also on the Cardinals’ radar, according to Sullivan and Gonzales.
- Rangers general manager Jon Daniels will enter a contract year in 2018, but he told Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram and other reporters on Friday that he has “no desire to go anywhere.” Daniels’ hope is to land an extension, though neither he nor members of the Rangers’ ownership group commented on whether a new deal is in the works. The 40-year-old has been in his post since October 2005, making him the second-longest tenured GM in the game behind the Yankees’ Brian Cashman, and has helped construct five playoff teams and two pennant winners (2010 and ’11). The 2017 season wasn’t a success for the Daniels-led Rangers, however, as they finished 78-84. Daniels is still optimistic, though, saying: “This was not a fun year, just the variety of things that we dealt with, but what it illuminated was getting back to the things that are fun. Being creative, finding new ways to compete, finding different competitive advantages, circling the wagons and building with our people.”
- The Red Sox are an “obvious” fit for Tony La Russa, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe observes. La Russa, who’s set to exit the Diamondbacks’ front office at the end of the month, has a longstanding relationship with Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, Cafardo points out. La Russa spoke glowingly of Boston’s front office leader, telling Cafardo, “There’s nobody in baseball I respect more than Dave Dombrowski.” Both La Russa’s friendship with Dombrowski and his vast experience in baseball could make him a candidate for an advisory role with the Sox. When asked about the possibility, Dombrowski said, “We’ll see.”
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Otani, Mariners, Jays, Cards, Brewers, Tigers
This week in baseball blogs:
- Hardball Via Hardcore sees Seattle as a logical landing spot for Shohei Otani.
- Jays From the Couch believes Toronto should explore a trade for Cardinals outfielder Randal Grichuk.
- Reviewing The Brew tries to find out what Ryan Braun‘s trade market could look like this offseason.
- Blessyouboys names Tigers who likely won’t be back with the team in 2018.
- Clubhouse Corner shares potential offseason strategies for the Indians and Diamondbacks.
- LegendsOnDeck compares the seasons of AL MVP contenders Jose Altuve and Aaron Judge.
- The Sports Tank expects Jake Arrieta‘s big-game track record to help his cause in free agency.
- Pop Culture Abstract evaluates the Cardinals’ offense.
- MetsMind asks if Matt Harvey‘s fastball command will ever return.
- Motor City Bengals regards the Tigers and Nationals as logical trading partners.
- Pirates Breakdown chats with with one of the Bucs’ top prospects, left-hander Taylor Hearn.
- Sports Talk Philly talks with Hall of Fame voters Jayson Stark, Andrew Baggarly, Kevin Cooney and Danny Knobler about Jimmy Rollins‘ Cooperstown chances.
- Mets Daddy calls the team’s managerial opening “a dead-end job.”
- Boston Sports Extra recaps Drew Pomeranz‘s season.
- Jays Journal lists free agent bullpen targets for Toronto.
- The Point of Pittsburgh examines if Ivan Nova‘s arm slot was the culprit for his second-half decline.
- Call to the Pen (links: 1, 2) analyzes the Phillies’ 40-man roster.
- BP Toronto has a post-mortem on the Blue Jays’ season.
- The Runner Sports (links: 1, 2) previews Game 7 of the ALCS and profiles Astros outfield prospect Juan Ramirez, who was part of the Justin Verlander trade.
- The Loop Sports is optimistic about the White Sox’s future behind the plate.
- Pinstriped Prospects highlights the best hitting performances by Yankees prospects in 2017.
- Everything Bluebirds wonders where Dalton Pompey fits on the Blue Jays.
- Ladodgerreport writes about the club’s NLCS-clinching win over the Cubs.
Please send submissions to ZachBBWI @gmail.com.
NL Notes: Marlins, Stanton, Phillies, Giants, Cubs
If the payroll-cutting Marlins only trade one of center fielder Christian Yelich or left fielder Marcell Ozuna this offseason, it’s more likely to be the former, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. Parting with Yelich instead of Ozuna would save the Marlins less money in the near term, but they value Ozuna’s on- and off-field contributions so much that they’re inclined to keep him, per Cafardo. Ozuna is a Scott Boras client with just two years of control remaining and a projected $10.9MM coming his way in 2018. Yelich, on the other hand, will make $7MM next year – the third season of a long-term deal that looks like one of the most team-friendly contracts in baseball. The soon-to-be 26-year-old is controllable for five more seasons, including a 2022 club option for $15MM, at a combined $58.25MM.
Of course, the highest-profile Marlins outfielder is Giancarlo Stanton, who also has the biggest contract ($295MM through 2028, unless he opts out after 2020). While Stanton will be popular in the rumor mill over the next several months, there was “buzz” late in the season that he’d use his full no-trade clause to reject a deal to the Phillies, who are interested in him and Yelich, Cafardo relays. Stanton has made it clear that he’s tired of losing, something the Phillies have done plenty of in recent years, though they’re seemingly trending upward and figure to return to their high-payroll ways in the near future.
More from the National League:
- The Giants are interested in hiring Jim Hickey as their next pitching coach, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN reports (on Twitter). The position opened up Saturday when San Francisco shifted longtime pitching coach Dave Righetti to its front office. Like Righetti, the well-regarded Hickey brings vast experience working with hurlers, having served as the Rays’ pitching coach from 2006-17.
- Hickey is also drawing serious interest from the Cubs, according to Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic (subscription required and recommended). He’d take over for Chris Bosio, whom the Cubs fired Saturday, and would reunite in Chicago with former Rays manager Joe Maddon. Letting go of Bosio may have been a front office-driven move, posits Sharma, who notes that president of baseball operations Theo Epsein was particularly disappointed in the bullpen’s last-ranked walk rate in 2017. The struggles of midseason acquisition Justin Wilson, who was terrific out of Detroit’s bullpen but undependable as part of Chicago’s, likely helped lead to Bosio’s ouster, Sharma suggests. Across 17 2/3 innings with the Cubs, Wilson walked 19 (compared to 16 in 40 1/3 innings as a Tiger) and logged a 5.09 ERA. Consequently, he appeared in only one of the Cubs’ 10 playoff games.
2017 Opt-Out Clause Update
Our most recent opt-out clause update was over two months ago, and plenty of things have changed since then. With the exception of up to two more potential starts for Yankees right-hander Masahiro Tanaka, all players with opt-out clauses are done playing for the season. Here’s an update on the decisions these eight players are facing within three days of the final game of the World Series…
Will Opt Out
- Greg Holland, Rockies ($15MM player option): Last week, Holland and agent Scott Boras decided that Holland will decline his player option. The news was first reported by Jon Heyman of FanRag, but was already widely expected after a season during which the right-handed closer pitched to a 3.61 ERA with 41 saves for Colorado during the regular season. Holland did fade a bit down the stretch, including a disastrous August during which he posted a 13.50 ERA and allowed a whopping .667 opponent slugging percentage (perhaps due to a drop in velocity). However, Boras blames some of that on fatigue in his first full season back from Tommy John, and there could be some truth to that argument. In any case, he finished strong, posting a strong 1.86 ERA to go along with a 11.17 K/9 in the season’s final month. He’ll likely be issued a $17.4MM qualifying offer, but it’s hard to believe he would accept an amount so close to his player option; it’s a good bet that Holland will reach the open market.
Likely To Opt Out
- Welington Castillo, Orioles ($7MM player option): Back in late September, Castillo declined to comment on the decision ahead of him. But following a fantastic season during which the O’s catcher hit .282/.323/.490, hit 20 homers in just 365 plate appearances, contributed great defense and improved his pitch framing significantly, Castillo seems all but certain to decline his one-year player option. He mentioned to Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun that he enjoys playing in Baltimore, but if he does, expect it to be on a much more lucrative contract.
- Justin Upton, Tigers ($88.5MM from 2018-21): Since our last update, Upton was traded from the Tigers to the Angels and crushed his way through the end of the season with a .253/.350/.578 batting line and 13 home runs between the two clubs. Fielding metrics remain high on him, and he’s still just 30 years old. While an average annual salary of $22MM might already be fairly close to what he’d earn on the open market, it makes plenty of sense to think he could get a contract longer than four years. The Angels have already been engaged in dialogue with Upton, which seems to suggest that they feel the need to convince him to remain in Los Angeles; that alone might imply that they expect him to opt out. It’s worth noting that he could end up on a more complete team than the Angels as well, which might be added incentive for him to test the market for his services.
- Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees ($67MM from 2018-20): Tanaka’s dominant second half (3.77 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 10.73 K/9, 1.65 BB/9) has continued into a dazzling trio of postseason performances through which he’s allowed just two runs over 20 innings while striking out 18 and holding opponents to a .145 batting average. It looked all but certain at the onset of the season that Tanaka would remain on his current deal, but a surge since the All-Star break has helped boost his earning power significantly. Though Tanaka’s 4.74 ERA during the 2017 regular season looks ugly, much of that can be attributed to a monstrous 21.2% homer/fly ball ratio that’s 5 points higher than his career average. Tanaka is only 28 years old, so at this point it looks as though he would be well-served to opt out of the remaining three years on his deal, or at least leverage his opt-out clause into more guaranteed years from the Yankees.
Unlikely To Opt Out
- Wei-Yin Chen, Marlins ($52MM from 2018-20): Although Chen was at least able to take the field again since our last update, it would make no sense for him to walk away from the remaining dollars on his deal. The lefty tossed 33 innings across five starts and four relief appearances in September, pitching to a decent 3.82 ERA, but that small sample certainly won’t be enough to establish the value needed to exceed $52MM in guaranteed money. Questions about the health of his elbow only make things worse.
- Matt Wieters, Nationals ($10.5MM player option): Nothing to see here. Since our last update, Wieters has somehow played even worse. From mid-August through September, Wieters batted .172/.274/.253, good for a wRC+ of just 41. We expect it won’t take long for the Nats backstop to exercise his option.
- Johnny Cueto, Giants ($84MM from 2018-21): Even when healthy, Cueto wasn’t his usual self in 2017. His 4.52 ERA and 3.24 BB/9 were the highest marks he’s posted since his rookie season with the Reds in 2008. His 34.6% hard contact rate was a career high, and he allowed 1.34 HR/9 despite pitching in the pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. He’s on the wrong side of 30, and is now surrounded by questions about the health of his arm. Going into 2017, it seemed as though Cueto would be a good bet to opt out, but now it seems all but certain he’ll remain in San Francisco for the time being. If that wasn’t enough, Cueto addressed his opt-out clause back in late August, stating that “My whole mentality has been for me to stay here,” (hat tip to Andrew Baggarly of the Bay Area News Group).
Will Not Opt Out
- Ian Kennedy, Royals ($49MM from 2018-20): After a season during which he pitched to a 5.38 ERA and was valued below replacement level, Kennedy does not plan to opt out of his current deal. He went as far as to tell Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star that “it would be pretty stupid” if he did. “You don’t go to the free-agent market pitching how I’ve been. No one is going to want that,” Kennedy candidly admitted. The Royals right-hander is 33 years of age and has been bad in his first two years with the Royals, at one point prompting Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron to calculate his negative trade value. During that time, he’s allowed hard contact 38.8% of the time and posted a 5.08 FIP.
NL Notes: Braves, Bosio, Righetti
The Braves are in an unfavorable position headed into the offseason. John Coppolella has already resigned due to a breach of MLB’s rules regarding the international players market, leaving a dark cloud hovering over the organization and rumors swirling as to whether or not John Hart will remain with the organization. Braves beat reporter Mark Bowman of MLB.com writes about some of the inconveniences the organization faces due to this uncertainty. Because the Braves don’t know who will be “steering the ship”, as Bowman puts it, the club cannot yet decide on its direction for the upcoming winter. Decisions such as R.A. Dickey‘s contract option and potential trades to clear a spot for top prospect Ronald Acuna are floating in baseball operations limbo. In the meantime, director of player personnel Perry Minasian and assistant general manager Adam Fisher have scrambled to learn as much as they can about the club’s assets and needs, having been with the organization for just one month. The club will hope for answers on Hart’s future in Atlanta sooner rather than later in order to gain clarity on the club’s direction for the offseason.
More news from around the National League…
- The Cubs have dismissed longtime pitching coach Chris Bosio, according to a tweet from Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Robert Murray of FanRag sports later confirmed the news. Bosio had been the club’s pitching coach since 2012, including earning a World Series ring with the club just last season after guiding the Cubs pitching staff to a 3.15 team ERA. Murray names Jim Hickey as a potential candidate to fill Bosio’s role.
- Earlier today, Nightengale also tweeted that the Giants dismissed pitching coach Dave Righetti, shifting him to a role in the front office. Murray was able to confirm the reassignment of Righetti through his own sources. Righetti had been the pitching coach in San Francisco for 17 years, making him the longest-tenured pitching coach in major league baseball before his reassignment, as well as the longest-tenured pitching coach in all of Giants history. Murray notes that the club’s 4.50 ERA in 2017 can’t all be blamed on Righetti; ace Madison Bumgarner missed a large portion of the season due to a shoulder injury sustained in a dirt bike accident. According to a later tweet by Jon Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, Righetti will serve as a special assistant to GM Bobby Evans. Shea also adds that bullpen coach Mark Gardner will also be shifted to a special assignment role in the front office, while assistant hitting coach Steve Decker will take on a special assistant role in baseball operations.
Minor MLB Transactions: 10/21/17
We’ll track the day’s minor MLB transactions here:
- 70 players have filed for minor league free agency, according to an article by Matt Eddy of Baseball America. The piece is sorted by team, so you can see the latest minor-league transactional details for your favorite ballclub. You can also see which players have been recently released, outrighted and assigned to the Arizona Fall League and various winter leagues. A look at the article is well worth the time for any baseball fan.
Mariners Send Osmy Gregorio To Rays To Complete Ryan Garton Trade
The Seattle Mariners will send shortstop Osmy Gregorio to Tampa Bay, according to a tweet from Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. Gregorio will be the Player to be Named Later in the trade that sent left-hander Anthony Misiewicz and infielder Luis Rengifo to the Rays in exchange for right-hander Ryan Garton and catcher Mike Marjama.
Gregorio has played 101 games over the past two seasons between Seattle’s Rookie and Low-A minor league affiliates. The right-hander hit just .220/.288/.311 across both levels in 2017, but did manage to steal 15 bases. The 19 year-old international signee out of the Dominican Republic stands at 6-2 and weights 175 lbs.
Garton pitched to a 1.54 ERA across 13 appearances with the Mariners, with seven strikeouts and just one walk. However, his 4.07 SIERA and 4.35 xFIP show him to be a bit worse than his ERA suggests. Marjama collected three hits in nine plate appearances, including one home run in Seattle’s final game of the season.
Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
After a somewhat average first half, the Cincinnati Reds collapsed after the All-Star break and ultimately finished last in the NL Central. The result was a second consecutive 68-94 record and a fourth consecutive losing season. The organization will now need to answer some tough questions, including what they’ll do to improve a historically bad pitching staff, and whether or not they ought to try and sell off some established players like Billy Hamilton.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Joey Votto, 1B: $150MM through 2023
- Homer Bailey, SP: $44MM through 2019 ($25MM mutual option for 2020, $5MM buyout)
- Devin Mesoraco, $13.1MM through 2018
- Raisel Iglesias, $16.6MM through 2020 (Can opt into arbitration for next season)
- Tucker Barnhart, $15.5MM through 2021 ($7.5MM option for 2022, $500K buyout)
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)
- Scooter Gennett (4.071) – $6.1MM
- Billy Hamilton (4.028) – $5.0MM
- Anthony DeSclafani (3.062) – $1.1MM
- Eugenio Suarez (3.061) – $4.4MM
- Michael Lorenzen (2.159) – $1.4MM
- Raisel Iglesias (2.154) – $2.8MM if he chooses to opt into arbitration. Otherwise, contract calls for $4.5MM in 2018, $5MM in 2019, and $5MM in 2020.
Free Agents
Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart; Cincinnati Reds Payroll Overview
With about $68.7MM tied up in payroll commitments for the upcoming season, along with $18MM in projected arbitration salaries, the Cincinnati Reds face limited retooling options for their 2018 roster. Unfortunately for Cincinnati fans, it seems as though the small-market Reds have more holes to fill on their roster than space in the budget. Top prospect Nick Senzel is likely to contribute at some point next season (according to comments made by GM Dick Williams), but he’d only fill a hole in the lineup left by Zack Cozart, who will either depart or become expensive to retain. Within a fiercely competitive division that includes four other teams pushing to contend, it’s unlikely that a few cheap patches will vault the Reds into contention within the NL Central.
Williams has stated that the team is interested in discussing a new deal with Cozart, but the Reds won’t be the only team vying for his services. The Rays, Royals, and Padres are all in need of a shortstop for the long-term. The Orioles could take a look as well, considering incumbent Tim Beckham‘s horrid September and relative uncertainty. There are plenty of teams that would be interested in using him at second base as well. His .297/.385/.548 slash line this past season and solid defense made Cozart the fourth-most valuable shortstop in baseball by fWAR. Even if the Reds are willing to shell out the cash needed to keep their All-Star shortstop, there’s still the chance he’d rather play with a more likely contender. If Cozart ends up elsewhere, former top prospect Jose Peraza seems like the best bet to take his place at short.
The first decision the Reds will need to make on Cozart this offseason will be whether or not to issue him a $17.4MM qualifying offer. The rules are different overall this season, but the implications for Cozart and the Reds would likely remain the same. Because the Reds received revenue sharing in 2017, they would gain a compensatory draft pick after the first round of the 2018 draft next June, if Cozart signs a contract with another team worth at least $50MM. The additional pick (and corresponding slot money) would be a great asset to the club’s rebuild. But for the Reds and their limited payroll space, $17.4MM could end up severely handcuffing them in a non-contending season. That salary, along with guaranteed contracts, arbitration projections and league minimum salaries for the rest of the roster, would push their payroll north of $111MM for 2018, which would fall just $4MM short of their 2015 club record payroll. Such a high payroll could hurt the organization’s capacity to fill other holes on the roster through free agency. With Peraza waiting as a shortstop option with some upside, there’s at least a small chance the Reds could decide not to take the risk of giving Cozart a QO.
Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan should be healthy enough in time for spring training to join Luis Castillo and Homer Bailey in a rotation that struggled mightily last year; Reds starters allowed the most homers in baseball and finished with the second-highest ERA and walk rate. Robert Stephenson, Rookie Davis, Cody Reed, Tim Adleman, Amir Garrett and top prospect Tyler Mahle are internal options for the fifth spot in the rotation if the Reds don’t sign anyone. It seems highly unlikely that they’ll be involved in the bidding for a top-tier starter due to their limited payroll space. There’s a chance they could give a three- or four-year contract to a number two or three starter type, but even that seems like a stretch given the risks involved and the fact that they aren’t likely to make the playoffs in the near future. Instead, they might end up exploring veteran options like Jaime Garcia and Andrew Cashner who have some upside and could eat innings for Cincinnati on less expensive contracts.
Outside of Raisel Iglesias, the Reds’ bullpen is still a disaster. After being so bad that they literally set records in 2016, their relievers combined to post the fourth-worst ERA in the majors this past year. 16 relievers pitched at least ten innings for Cincinnati this season, and nobody outside of Iglesias contributed more than 0.50 Win Probability Added (WPA). They’re likely to sign a couple of veterans in free agency, but it’ll be like trying to cover a bullet wound with a band-aid. It’s likely that we’ll see the Reds once again churn through a large number of relievers in hopes that someone will develop into a reliable setup option. Michael Lorenzen will be worth watching; he showed some promise as a multi-inning reliever before collapsing to the tune of a 6.32 ERA in the second half.
Even the lineup isn’t a true strength. Cincinnati finished middle of the pack in most offensive categories, even while playing in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. Most of that lineup will be coming back, but it seems like the Reds will have to hope that high-pedigree hitters Peraza and Jesse Winker can take big steps forward. Even then, it’s not a sure bet that Scooter Gennett and Scott Schebler will be able to replicate their 2017 breakout performances. On-base engine Joey Votto will anchor the lineup, but they’d need a lot to break right around him in order to consistently keep up with the runs their pitching staff is likely to allow.
Should the Reds decide to double down on their rebuild, they do have some assets that could help them further strengthen their farm system. Billy Hamilton and Gennett become free agents after the 2019 season. Neither is likely to play October baseball with the Reds before then; many of Cincinnati’s best prospects are still at least two years away, and the money owed to Bailey won’t make things easy on their payroll during that time. I already wrote about a few potential trade partners for Hamilton. Finding a partner for Gennett wouldn’t be too difficult; he’s capable of playing second, third and left field and is coming off the best offensive season of his career (though his continued struggles against lefties could limit his market).
Iglesias is another piece who could bring back a significant haul… recent deals for high-end relievers like Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman and Ken Giles have all brought back top 100 prospects to the selling teams. Though Iglesias hasn’t yet established himself to the level of Miller or Chapman, it’s easy to see him fetching a return similar to that of Giles.
Breakout infielder Eugenio Suarez could fetch a good return as well. However, since Iglesias and Suarez are both under control for another three seasons, they’re less likely to be traded. Joey Votto could be a trade asset, but his contract has a full no-trade clause, and he’s plainly stated that he doesn’t plan on waiving it.
There’s certainly no guarantee that the Reds will end up trading away Hamilton or Gennett. But if they do, they could look to fill holes in the center and the infield. Phil Ervin and Dilson Herrera are next on the depth chart respectively, but there are some free agent fill-in options as well. Jarrod Dyson, Cameron Maybin and Rajai Davis are examples of free agent center fielders that might get a close look should Hamilton change uniforms. There are a few free agent veterans that could be candidates to fill in as a stopgap at second base until Senzel is ready to take a spot on the big league roster if the team decides to move Gennett, but it seems more likely they would look at internal options or waiver claims.
One big question for the Reds this offseason is whether or not they’ll attempt to unload Bailey’s contract. It’s likely they’d need to eat a significant portion of it even if they do manage to trade him, but it’s possible that a big-budget team might be willing to take a chance on the expensive right-hander. The Phillies, for example, have a lot of payroll space and could afford to take a chance on Bailey rebounding and reestablishing some value. However, it would be difficult to convince any team to take on more than $10MM of his contract. With his value at a low point, the Reds might be best served to open the season with him in the rotation, and hope he can bounce back a bit before the trade deadline. At the very least, he’s better than most of the internal options behind him, and they’d likely spend at least some money on a free agent starter if they traded him, anyway.
It’s difficult to imagine the Reds making any major splashes in free agency. They’ll might sign one or two cheap veteran relievers, but that’s not going to simply fix their bullpen. Perhaps they’ll explore the market for starting pitchers, but unless they manage to retain Cozart, they probably won’t dole out significant money to land a big-name player. Instead, we’ll probably see them make some pitching acquisitions via waiver claim and maybe even the Rule 5 Draft, the latter depending on whether or not they choose to sell off some key pieces.
While the odds are stacked against the Reds posting a winning season in 2018, there are some high-end prospects in their minor league system that are worth being excited about. The next few seasons could prove tough for Cincinnati fans if the Reds choose to have a fire sale, but there’s plenty of upside in the organization, both at the major league level and down on the farm. So, will the Reds tear down their roster even further to supplement that talent? If not, to what extent will they attempt to push through their disadvantages in an effort to win? The Reds’ offseason will be a fun one to track.
AL East Notes: Rays, Jones, Tanaka
In a fascinating article about the potential of a new Rays ballpark in Tampa Bay, Steve Contorno of the Tampa Bay Times gives insight into property trading as a method for acquiring land on which to build a new stadium. The mechanism is fairly simple at its core; Hillsborough County would trade parcels of valuable government-owned land near the downtown area to private property owners in exchange for their land in the Channel District-Ybor City area, where the county would like to build a new stadium. County Attorney Chip Fletcher confirmed with the Tampa Bay Times that the county is looking into these trades as a way to lower the cost of acquiring new property for a ballpark. Contorno’s piece offers a deep look into all the factors the county must consider when deciding whether this method truly makes sense from a business perspective. Rays fans (and Tampa Bay taxpayers) might enjoy learning about the complexities of the situation Hillsborough County faces.
More from around the American League’s Eastern Division…
- While much has been made of stud third baseman Manny Machado‘s potential exit from the Orioles after 2018, Rich Dubroff of PressBoxOnline.com examines the situation of another O’s icon in his final year; center fielder Adam Jones. Jones has manned center for ten consecutive years in Baltimore, thanks to a six-year, $85.5MM extension that made Dan Duquette’s front office look brilliant. Because Jones is a leader in the clubhouse and current franchise icon, Dubroff places a heavy weight on the decision Baltimore faces in whether or not to retain him. Jones has been worth 28.8 fWAR as a member of the Orioles’ organization, compiling 248 home runs and 802 RBI across 6,221 plate appearances while posting a .279/.319/.468 slash line, good for 109 wRC+. As of right now, the only guarantees the Orioles have on the books beyond 2018 are those of Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo and Darren O’Day, the latter two of whom become free agents after the 2019 season.
- Is Masahiro Tanaka pitching his way off the Yankees roster? That’s the question Joel Sherman of the New York Post asked on Friday. Within three days of the conclusion of the World Series, Tanaka can choose to opt out of the final three years and $67MM on his contract. The former Japanese star is strengthening his value with each of his elite postseason starts so far in 2017, but his case for a larger contract goes beyond the postseason alone. While Sherman opines that Tanaka was expected not to opt out before October, that notion seems to entirely ignore the right-hander’s elite second half. After the All-Star break, Tanaka posted a 3.77 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP, with a wicked 10.73 K/9 and 1.65 BB/9. Strong peripheral stats, such as a 2.83 xFIP, point to Tanaka being one of the AL’s best starters during that span. Questions remain about the health of his elbow and his ability to keep the ball in the park, but as things stand right now, it seems likely that Tanaka could earn more than $67MM if he were to opt out and test the open market.
Latest on the Nationals’ Managerial Search
The Nationals announced on Friday that they will not bring back Dusty Baker as manager for the 2018 season, despite praise from his players and rumblings that the two sides had been discussing a reunion in recent days. In fact, the club intends to replace the entire coaching staff. The decision comes in the wake of yet another tough NLDS loss for a club that fought injuries to many key players in order to grab the NL’s second-best regular season record.
A few other clubs began their managerial search well before the Nationals, and at least one option (Ron Gardenhire, now with the Tigers) is off the table. The Red Sox appear to be nearing the end of their search as well. Another factor that could limit the club’s options is the organization’s pattern with the lengths of their managerial contracts. In the past decade, the Nationals have never been willing to guarantee a manager more than two years at a time, a factor that could be a deal breaker to certain candidates also in the mix for jobs with other clubs.
On Saturday, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported on Twitter that the Nationals have requested permission from the Astros to interview Astros bench coach. Some reports from Boston media outlets say that Cora is already tabbed to manage the Red Sox in 2018, and that the club is simply waiting until after the ALCS to announce the news. A source close to Evan Drellich of NBC Boston even told him, “Not a doubt it is [Cora].” But the invitation to interview with the Nationals could certainly throw a wrench into this rumor.
The 42 year-old Cora played mostly in the middle infield throughout his 14-year major league career, including a 2011 stint with the Nationals in his final year before retirement. Many have spoken highly of Cora’s presence in the clubhouse during that time, which would prove valuable on a Washington team with a lot of young talent on the roster.