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Michael Kopech Has Begun Offseason Throwing Program

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January 22: Los Angeles general manager Brandon Gomes downplayed the situation this evening. Gomes said that Kopech is amidst his offseason throwing program and said he “(doesn’t) think there’s anything of concern at this point” with their potential closer (relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register).

January 21: The Dodgers are seemingly on the verge of adding two high-leverage bullpen pieces. After agreeing to terms on a four-year deal with Tanner Scott over the weekend, Los Angeles reportedly has a tentative agreement in place to sign All-Star righty Kirby Yates.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who was first to report that the Dodgers and Yates were closing in on a deal, linked the expected addition to the health status of Michael Kopech. There hadn’t been any prior indication that Kopech was facing a potential injury absence. Nightengale reports that the hard-throwing righty has been battling forearm inflammation. He has not been diagnosed with any structural damage, though Nightengale indicates that the Dodgers will take a cautious approach early in the season.

Fabian Ardaya and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this morning that Kopech pitched through what was seemingly a minor forearm issue during last fall’s World Series run. Acquired from the White Sox in a three-team deadline deal, Kopech had a brilliant first few months in Los Angeles. He fired 24 innings down the stretch and posted a 1.13 earned run average. He struck out 33% of opposing hitters while generating swinging strikes on a fantastic 15.8% of his offerings.

Kopech’s playoff performance was a little more shaky. While he only allowed three runs in nine postseason innings, he issued seven free passes while striking out 10 batters. Kopech didn’t lose any life on his 98-99 MPH fastball, though, so that dip was probably more about small sample variance than a reflection that he was significantly hampered physically. His command has never been pristine.

For now, the forearm inflammation seems to be something worth monitoring rather than a huge concern. Nightengale suggests that Kopech could begin the season on the injured list, but no one from the team has publicly stated that’ll be the case. Even if he does miss a few weeks early in the year, the Dodgers have plenty of talent to weather his absence.

The Dodgers could have four or five potential closers. Scott closed for the Marlins for a few seasons before moving into a setup capacity with the Padres after a deadline trade. Evan Phillips had been L.A.’s primary closer for over a year before the Kopech acquisition. Phillips battled shoulder issues late in the season and wasn’t able to go in the World Series. The Dodgers brought back high-leverage arm Blake Treinen on a two-year contract early in the offseason. If they finalize the Yates deal, he could be the favorite for the ninth after saving 33 games for the Rangers. Skipper Dave Roberts will have plenty of high-octane arms he can juggle even if Kopech begins the year on the shelf.

Cubs, Reese McGuire Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Cubs and catcher Reese McGuire have agreed to a minor league deal, reports Aram Leighton of Just Baseball. The Apex Baseball client will presumably receive an invite to major league spring training as well.

McGuire, 30, has appeared in the past seven big league seasons as a part-time catcher. Spending time with the Blue Jays, White Sox and Red Sox, he has appeared in 355 games and stepped to the plate 1,038 times. He has a .252/.300/.364 batting line in that time, which translates to a wRC+ of 80.

Though that puts him 20% below the league average hitter, it’s actually not terrible production for his position, since catchers usually produce about 10% less than par. Unfortunately, the last two years have seen him slide down a bit. With the Red Sox over 2023 and 2024, he slashed .242/.297/.331 for a wRC+ of 70.

Defensively, he’s generally gotten good marks. Outlets like Baseball Prospectus and Statcast consider him to have been a strong framer, while his blocking and work with the running game have been close to average.

When the offense was a bit stronger, McGuire was a useful player. FanGraphs considered him to have been worth least 1.2 wins above replacement in each full season from 2019 to 2022. But as his bat dropped off over the past two years, his value slid along with it. Boston outrighted him off their roster in August and McGuire became a free agent at season’s end.

The Cubs only have two catchers on their 40-man roster now in Miguel Amaya and Carson Kelly. Prospect Moisés Ballesteros should be pushing his way into the mix eventually but he’s only 21 years old and has only 68 Triple-A games under his belt, so perhaps he’ll spend a bit more time in the minors. McGuire will give the club a bit of extra depth without taking up a roster spot for now. If he gets added at any point, he is out of options but his service clock is just below the five-year line, meaning it’s theoretically possible for him to be retained via arbitration for 2026 if he has a roster spot at season’s end.

Athletics Hire Dave Stewart As Special Assistant

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The Athletics announced that former big leaguer Dave Stewart has been hired as a special assistant to player development for the 2025 season. The announcement didn’t provide much detail on Stewart’s exact role but he’ll reconnect with the franchise he’s been most associated with over the years.

Now 67, Stewart pitched in the big leagues from 1978 to 1995. His best seasons were spent in Oakland. From 1987 to 1992, he made 212 starts for the A’s, allowing 3.56 earned runs per nine. That stretch included a World Series victory for the club in 1989, with Stewart being named MVP of the series. He threw a complete game shutout in game one against the Giants. An earthquake led to a 10-day delay in the series, which allowed Stewart to also start game three, surrendering three earned runs in seven innings. The A’s finished the sweep the next day.

Stewart would go on to join the Blue Jays for the 1993 and 1994 seasons, winning another World Series in the first of those campaigns with Toronto. He returned to the A’s in 1995, in what would eventually turn out to be his final season as a player.

He then moved into his post-playing days with the A’s. He served as assistant to general manager Sandy Alderson in 1996, though he bounced around after that, working in various roles for all kinds of employers. He took front office and/or coaching roles with the Padres, Jays and Brewers. He founded the Sports Management Partners agency. He was hired by the Diamondbacks to be general manager and held that job for about two years, from September of 2014 to October of 2016.

As of a few years ago, Stewart was part of a group that was trying to get an expansion MLB franchise in Nashville. A few months ago, it was reported that he was no longer a part of that group, but that a different group he was leading was trying to buy the White Sox.

It’s unclear what stage those ownerships pursuits are at right now, but it seems Stewart will circle back to the A’s. The franchise is now in an interim period, as they plan to play in West Sacramento for the next three seasons as they build a new stadium in Las Vegas to be their new permanent home. During this period of upheaval for the franchise, as they move on from one fanbase and look to build a new one from scratch, Stewart will come back as a familiar face and presumably impart some wisdom on the club’s younger players.

Poll: Spencer Torkelson’s Future With The Tigers

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When the Tigers took Spencer Torkelson with the first overall pick in 2020, Baseball America described him as “the safest pick at the top of the draft” and a potential “middle-of-the-order force,” à la Pete Alonso. And keep in mind, they weren’t talking about present-day Alonso, who is struggling to find a market in free agency, but rather a younger version who had just set the MLB rookie record with 53 home runs in his debut campaign.

Torkelson tore up the minor leagues in 2021, rising from High-A to Triple-A and mashing at every level. Ahead of his rookie season in 2022, he was a consensus top-10 prospect in the game. Most sources, including Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and The Athletic’s Keith Law placed him in the top five. The only players who ranked ahead of him on every one of those lists were Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt Jr. Suffice it to say, the future was bright for the young first baseman.

Yet, the bright lights of the big leagues proved too much for a 22-year-old Torkelson. He didn’t just fail to reach his sky-high ceiling. Rather, his supposedly sturdy floor completely collapsed. In 110 games, the righty batter barely managed a .200 average and a .600 OPS. He hit just eight home runs, and his .117 isolated power was well below average, especially for a first baseman. While his expected stats were slightly more promising, a 34th-percentile xwOBA could hardly assuage the very real concerns about his lifeless bat. What’s more, a mid-season demotion back to Triple-A did little to help. He was surprisingly ineffective in the minors, too, posting a .738 OPS and 100 wRC+ in 35 games.

Torkelson got off to a similarly poor start in 2023, but he turned things around late in the year. Through the end of July, he had a .707 OPS and 94 wRC+, with 15 home runs in 104 games. Those were better numbers than he posted in 2022 but still disappointing for an MLB first baseman and well below expectations. Then, from August 1 through the end of the season, Torkelson finally seemed to tap into his full potential. He crushed 11 doubles and 16 home runs in 55 games, good for a .282 ISO. His .855 OPS and 133 wRC+ were similarly impressive, and his .364 xwOBA was right in line with his .362 wOBA. The sample size was small, but considering everything Torkelson had done in college and the minors to become a top-10 prospect, it was hard not to think the powerful slugger was finally becoming everything the Tigers hoped he could be.

Then came 2024. Over the first two months of this past season, Torkelson looked like his rookie self again, slashing .201/.266/.330 with a 71 wRC+. That led to another minor league demotion, and things didn’t look much better at Triple-A. The man who terrorized minor league pitchers in 2021 was nowhere to be seen, and he put up a .799 OPS and 108 wRC+ in 58 games. Torkelson looked better upon his return to the Tigers in August, but his late-season performance wasn’t as convincing as it was in 2023. His 125 wRC+ was powered by a high BABIP and a wOBA more than 20 points above his xwOBA. While his 11.3% walk rate was a promising sign, his 32.5% strikeout rate suggested he was still often overmatched against big league pitching. That certainly seemed to be the case in the playoffs, when he went just 4-for-21 with an 82 wRC+ in seven postseason games.

Three seasons into his major league career, Torkelson’s top prospect shine has worn off. In close to 1,500 plate appearances, he has failed to establish himself as an above-average hitter, let alone an everyday first baseman. The Tigers could afford to let him play through his issues during their rebuild, but now that they have eyes on contention, it will be harder to justify giving regular reps to such a mediocre bat. To that point, they seem to have already replaced him on the roster. After signing Gleyber Torres to play second base, Detroit’s president of baseball operations Scott Harris confirmed that Colt Keith will be the team’s primary first baseman in 2025. With Keith at first base and Kerry Carpenter at DH, it’s hard to see how Torkelson fits in. Torkelson was once a more promising prospect than either of them, but Carpenter has mashed at the major league level (career 136 wRC+), and the Tigers showed their faith in Keith with a six-year, $28.6425MM extension before he’d even made his MLB debut. Without a guaranteed contract or much big league success, Torkelson is on the outside looking in.

If Torkelson plays well this spring, the Tigers could still find a way to get him in the lineup. To that point, Harris says he told Torkelson, “If you have a big offseason and a big spring training, there’s a role for you on this team.” At the very least, the righty batter could be the short side of a platoon with the lefty-batting Carpenter. Last year, manager A.J. Hinch tried to shield Carpenter from southpaws, against whom he has a career 69 wRC+. Meanwhile, Torkelson has a 111 wRC+ in 357 career PA against opposite-handed pitching. Keith is a left-handed hitter, too, so Torkelson could also spell him at first base with a tough lefty on the bump. If top prospect Jace Jung struggles (and the Tigers don’t add another third baseman in free agency), the team could be forced to move either Keith or Torres over to third, freeing up playing time for Torkelson at first base. Finally, Detroit could also consider giving Carpenter more run in the outfield if Torkelson is hitting well enough to deserve the reps at DH.

Of course, that all relies on Torkelson doing enough to convince the Tigers to give him another serious chance. An alternative route, and perhaps the best possible outcome for everyone involved, would be trading Torkelson to a team that can offer him a more regular role. Not only might a change of scenery do him some good, but consistent playing time at a consistent position can only help as he tries to figure things out at the plate. One can understand why Detroit might be hesitant to sell low on a former first-overall pick. On the other hand, it will be hard for him to increase his trade value when he isn’t playing every day. If the Tigers trade him now, at least they could guarantee some sort of return. A true rebuilding club like the Marlins could offer Torkelson the most playing time, but other teams that could be looking for an inexpensive right-handed first base/DH bat include the Mariners, Padres, Pirates, and Twins. Torkelson still has an option, so sending him back down to Triple-A Toledo is another possibility.

So, where do MLBTR readers think Spencer Torkelson will be come Opening Day? Share your thoughts by voting in the poll below!

Where Will Spencer Torkelson Be On Opening Day?
Traded to a new organization 34.33% (2,860 votes)
With the Triple-A Toledo Mud Hens 25.92% (2,159 votes)
On the Tigers' bench 22.21% (1,850 votes)
In the Tigers' starting lineup 17.54% (1,461 votes)
Total Votes: 8,330

Guardians Sign Paul Sewald

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The Guardians announced Wednesday that they’ve signed free agent reliever Paul Sewald to a one-year contract with a mutual option for the 2026 season. He’s represented by ISE Baseball. The righty is reportedly guaranteed $7MM on the deal, which will be paid out in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, a $5MM salary, and a $1MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option. Sewald can also earn an extra $100K for reaching each of 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60 relief appearances in 2025, giving him the opportunity to earn a total of $7.5MM on the deal.

Righty Pedro Avila has been designated for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster, per the club announcement. Cleveland also signed right-hander Riley Pint to a minor league deal. The Excel client will be invited him to spring training.

Sewald, 35 in May, is coming off a bit of a frustrating year. He opened the 2024 season on the injured list due to a left oblique strain and missed a bit more than a month, getting reinstated by the Diamondbacks on May 7. Once back on the mound, the results weren’t up to his previous standard, which got him bumped from Arizona’s closing gig in August. He landed back on the IL in September due to neck discomfort and wrapped up the campaign there.

In the end, he tossed 39 2/3 innings on the year, allowing 4.31 earned runs per nine. His 26.1% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate were still good numbers but were worse than his previous form. From 2021 to 2023, between the Mariners and Diamondbacks, he threw 189 1/3 innings with a 2.95 ERA, 33.9% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate.

The Guardians are seemingly making a bet on a bounceback, which there is some justification for. Most of his struggles last year were during a short period of time where he seemed to be a bit unlucky. In the month of July, he allowed 12 earned runs in 10 innings, just before losing the closer’s job. Since he only allowed 19 earned runs all year, that was the majority of them. During that month, he allowed a .469 batting average on balls in play and had a 56.2% strand rate, which are both on the unfortunate side. That’s why his 3.94 SIERA was miles better than his 10.80 ERA that month.

Sewald averaged 91.4 miles per hour on his fastball last year, which was down from being in the 92-93 mph range in the previous three seasons, but it’s possible that his two injuries played a role there. With a bit better health, perhaps the Guards can get more of the 2021-23 Sewald than the ’24 version.

Though betting on Sewald is a perfectly sensible thing to do, it’s a bit of a curious path for the Guards at first glance. Cleveland had the best bullpen in the majors in 2024 and it wasn’t close. Their relief corps had a collective 2.57 ERA in 2024, with the Brewers coming a distant second at 3.11. They traded Nick Sandlin to the Blue Jays as part of the Andrés Giménez deal last month but still have Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin and others.

Given that the team doesn’t usually run huge budgets, the most straightforward way for them to allocate their resources this winter would be to upgrade the offense. The Guards hit .238/.307/.395 as a team last year, which was exactly league average. They are going into 2025 with a fairly similar group of position players. They traded Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks and then signed Carlos Santana, a roughly cash-neutral move since Santana’s salary will be fairly close to Naylor’s this year. They subtracted Giménez, who is more of a glove-first player, but now second base projects to go to a fairly unproven player like Juan Brito or Ángel Martínez.

Perhaps the Guardians will line up a trade with one of their other relievers but it’s also possible that they see the value in leaning into their strength by further upgrading the relief corps. Relievers tend to be the most volatile part of a roster these days, with regression and/or injuries entirely possible, so having another experienced arm in the mixes hedges against that.

Avila, 28, has posted some solid but not outstanding results in his career thus far. Between the Padres and Guardians, he has thrown 146 1/3 innings in his career with a 3.51 ERA, 23.8% strikeout rate, 10.6% walk rate and 49.2% ground ball rate.

He exhausted his final option year with the Friars in 2023, which gave him a tenuous hold on a roster spot. He struggled out of the gate last year, which led to him being flipped to Cleveland. He ultimately finished the year with a 3.81 ERA in 82 2/3 innings.

Despite a solid campaign, Avila’s out-of-options status and a crowded Cleveland bullpen were going to make it hard for him to keep a roster spot all year, so he’s been nudged off today. The Guards will now have a week of DFA limbo to figure out what’s next, whether that’s a trade or a fate on waivers. Since the waiver process takes 48 hours, any trades would have to come together in the next five days.

Any acquiring team would have to deal with the same lack of options, though a team with a less-elite bullpen might be more able to manage that. Avila’s results have been decent and he still has less than two years of service time, meaning he hasn’t yet qualified for arbitration and could be cheaply controlled for as many as five seasons.

Pint, 27, was taken by the Rockies with the fourth overall pick in 2016. He was a top 100 prospect for a while but struggled badly with control in the minors and decided to retire in 2021. At that point, he had thrown 166 2/3 innings on the farm with a 5.56 ERA, 20.5% strikeout rate and 16.8% walk rate.

He un-retired in 2022 and posted decent results that year. He threw 45 2/3 innings across multiple levels with a 4.53 ERA, 56.6% ground ball rate and 29.1% strikeout rate, though the walks were still high at 15.6%. The Rockies were encouraged enough to give him a roster spot to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

He spent most of the past two years as optionable depth for Colorado. He has just 3 2/3 major league innings on his track record, having allowed nine earned runs for an unseemly 22.09 ERA. He has struck out seven opponents but given out eight walks and plunked another two batters. Obviously, the minor league numbers have been better. He had a 3.92 ERA in 41 1/3 innings on the farm last year, striking out 36.3% of batters faced but also giving out walks at a massive 20.7% clip. He was outrighted by the Rockies in August and elected free agency at season’s end.

Pint is obviously still a project but the Guardians have a strong reputation for working with pitchers, so it’s understandable why they’d take a shot on a former top prospect without having to give up a roster spot. If he gets added to the roster at any point, he still has an option remaining and just a few days of service time.

With Sewald now added to the books, RosterResource estimates the club’s total commitments at $96MM for this year. They opened last year at $98MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. After making the postseason last year, perhaps there’s a payroll bump coming. But on the other hand, the club has no broadcast deal for this year. Their deal with Diamond Sports Group, now known as Main Street Sports, expired last year. MLB is going to be handling the broadcasts this year, an arrangement that is sure to lead to less revenue.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported Sewald’s $7MM salary, with Zack Meisel of The Athletic reporting the specific breakdown.

Blue Jays Sign Christian Bethancourt, Richard Lovelady To Minor League Deals

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The Blue Jays announced Wednesday that they’ve signed catcher Christian Bethancourt and left-hander Richard Lovelady to minor league contracts. Both players have been invited to major league camp during spring training.

Bethancourt, 33, had a decent showing at the plate as recently as 2022, when he slashed .252/.283/.409 (99 wRC+) with 11 homers in 101 games between the A’s and Rays. His bat has tanked since that time, with a combined .220/.250/.377 between Tampa Bay, Miami and Chicago (Cubs).

Once one of the game’s top-100 prospects, Bethancourt has never really found his footing as a big league regular. He moved on from catching entirely at one point, attempting to reinvent himself as a reliever, but he’s now spent several years back behind the plate. He’s a lifetime .229/.259/.367 hitter in the big leagues.

While that offense (or lack thereof) leaves plenty to be desired, Bethancourt has controlled the running game quite nicely thanks to a rocket arm that received 80 grades (on the 20-80 scale) during his prospect days. As the average caught-stealing rate has dropped to just 20.3% leaguewide following tweaks to the size of the bases and limits on pickoff attempts, Bethancourt has excelled. He thwarted 30% of stolen base attempts against him last year. Dating back to 2022, Bethancourt boasts a gaudy 29.9% caught-stealing rate. Over the past four seasons, only J.T. Realmuto, Patrick Bailey and Gabriel Moreno have contributed more value with their throwing, among catchers, per Statcast.

Bethancourt won’t be in the mix for the starting job in Toronto. That belongs to Alejandro Kirk. But the Jays’ only other catcher on the 40-man roster right now is journeyman Tyler Heineman, who has a .212/.298/.273 slash in 299 career plate appearances in the majors. Bethancourt could very well be in the mix for that spot, though time will tell if the Jays bring in a more established veteran to solidify that critical role. As it stands, an injury to Kirk would leave Toronto with Heineman and one of Bethancourt or fellow non-roster invitee Ali Sanchez as manager John Schneider’s top options behind the dish.

Lovelady, 29, split the 2024 season between the Cubs and Rays, struggling with the former but pitching pretty well for the latter. The southpaw gave Tampa Bay 28 2/3 innings of 3.77 ERA ball, albeit with a sub-par 16.8% strikeout rate. Lovelady’s 7.6% walk rate and 53.5% ground-ball rate were both strong marks, however, and the lefty has long shown an interesting blend of missed bats and grounders to go along with solid command.

Even with a decent showing for Tampa Bay, Lovelady was cut loose in November. The Rays designated him for assignment to open roster space for outfielder Jake Mangum, whom they wanted to protect from the Rule 5 Draft. Lovelady was non-tendered rather than traded or placed on waivers, immediately making him a free agent.

In 99 1/3 big league innings, Lovelady has a 21.1% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate and 50.9% grounder rate. He’s still been tagged for a 4.98 earned run average, thanks in large part to a 66% strand rate, but metrics like xFIP (4.27) and SIERA (4.02) have been more bullish than ERA. He’ll now try to catch on in Toronto, where the only lefty relievers on the 40-man roster are the inexperienced trio of Brendon Little, Easton Lucas and Josh Walker. Prospect Adam Macko also throws left-handed, but the Jays hope his future is in the rotation.

Pressly, Jansen, Robertson Among Cubs’ Bullpen Targets

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As the Cubs look to strengthen the back end of their bullpen, they’ve considered a lengthy list of names via both the trade market and free agency. Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic report that Chicago has some interest in Astros righty Ryan Pressly and that they’ve looked into a long list of free agents — Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek and Brooks Raley among them.

The Cubs recently finished runner-up to the Dodgers in their quest to sign Tanner Scott, putting forth a reported four-year, $66MM offer that broke all recent precedent for Chicago’s approach to bullpen acquisitions. The Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year guarantee or even an eight-figure salary to any individual reliever since signing Craig Kimbrel in 2019. Signing Scott would’ve marked a major paradigm shift for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer. That’s also true of free agent Carlos Estevez, to whom the Cubs have also been linked. Conversely, the list of considerations highlighted by Mooney and Sharma are more in line with the team’s prior approach to bullpen building.

Pressly stands as the most interesting name in many regards. A trade involving the longtime Houston stopper would have major ramifications for two clubs and ripple effects throughout the rest of the free-agent market. He’s owed $14MM this season in the final year of his contract but also wields a no-trade clause, allowing him to control his own fate.

If Pressly were amenable to a trade that’d send him to Wrigley Field, the Cubs would immediately have a new closer, while the Astros would dip back under the luxury tax threshold. Houston currently sits just $3MM over the line, per RosterResource’s estimate. Trading Pressly would put them $11MM under the threshold, perhaps giving the ’Stros the financial leeway to pursue an outfielder. They’re reportedly interested in Jurickson Profar, for instance.

The 36-year-old Pressly was the primary closer in Houston for four seasons, from 2020-23, before giving way to free-agent signee Josh Hader in 2024. Pressly moved into a setup role this past season and tallied 25 holds in addition to four saves. He pitched 56 2/3 innings with a solid 3.49 ERA, a 23.8% strikeout rate, a 7.4% walk rate, a 48.8% ground-ball rate and just 0.64 homers per nine innings.

All of those rate stats were better than league-average, but many still represent a step in the wrong direction for Pressly. Beginning with his 2018 breakout in Minnesota and stretching through the 2023 season, for instance, Pressly punched out a whopping 32.6% of his opponents with just a 6.4% walk rate. The uptick in walks this past season wasn’t necessarily glaring, but it’s fair to say Pressly isn’t missing bats anywhere close to where he did at his peak. A four-seamer that average 95.3 mph from ’18-’23 checked in at a 93.8 mph average in ’24, and his swinging-strike rate dipped from 16.6% (again, ’18-’23) to a strong but far less remarkable 12.6%. League-average this past season was 11.1%.

Payroll-wise, adding Pressly would bump the Cubs to around $194MM in 2025 payroll with about $212MM worth of luxury considerations. That’d leave them $29MM shy of this year’s $241MM tax threshold. The Cubs and Astros already got together on one blockbuster, sending Kyle Tucker from Houston to Chicago in exchange for infielder Isaac Paredes, righty Hayden Wesneski and top prospect Cam Smith. One would presume that Pressly’s name at least came up in those talks, but a larger and more complex package shipping both Tucker and Pressly to Wrigley Field was obviously never reached.

The free agent candidates laid out by The Athletic all fit the Cubs’ typical preference for short-term acquisitions in the bullpen, but genuine pursuits of Jansen and/or Robertson would still mark a change of note. From 2020-24, the largest guarantee the Cubs gave to a reliever was Hector Neris’ $9MM deal last offseason. Either Jansen or Robertson would likely command an eight-figure guarantee. Jansen saved 27 games and posted a 3.29 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate in 54 2/3 innings with the Red Sox this past season. Robertson notched a 3.00 earned run average in 72 innings with Texas, punching out one-third of opponents against a 9.1% walk rate.

The Cubs are plenty familiar with Robertson, of course. He signed a small one-year deal there prior to the 2022 season and largely revived his career at Wrigley Field. This time around, however, the circumstances would be different. Robertson inked an incentive-laden $3.5MM deal for one year in the 2021-22 offseason, as he’d yet to fully reestablish himself following Tommy John surgery while playing for the Phillies. He’s now coming off a trio of dominant seasons. With recent $10MM guarantees for both Jose Leclerc (A’s) and Andrew Kittredge (O’s), Robertson could well command a salary north of that sum. The Cubs’ offer to Scott and reported interest in Estevez show a willingness to spend that type of money on a reliever, though.

As for the others, they’re likely to come at a lesser rate. The Mets declined a net $7.5MM decision on Maton, opting for a $250K buyout over a $7.75MM option. He’s still coming off a nice year, however, having posted a 3.66 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 46.8% grounder rate in 64 frames. He finished particularly well after being traded from the Rays to the Mets in July. Stanek was another summer trade acquisition for the Mets; he posted a combined 4.88 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between Seattle and Queens. He whiffed 27.8% of opponents but issued walks at a 10.4% clip and was tagged for an average of 1.30 homers per nine innings.

Raley is on the mend from Tommy John surgery that was performed on May 29 of this past season. As such, the 36-year-old southpaw (37 in June) will be a midseason reinforcement wherever he signs — be it in Chicago or elsewhere. Raley was excellent from 2022-24 when healthy, tallying 115 1/3 frames of 2.58 ERA ball with a 27.3% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate.

Angels, Tim Anderson Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Angels and former All-Star shortstop Tim Anderson are in agreement on a minor league contract, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. He’ll be in camp with the Halos as a non-roster invitee this spring.

Anderson, still just 31 years old, experienced a precipitous decline at the plate in 2023. After posting an outstanding .318/.347/.473 batting line in the four prior seasons, the former AL batting champ, two-time All-Star and Silver Slugger winner posted an anemic .245/.286/.296 in a lost season with the the White Sox. That prompted the South Siders to decline what at one point looked to be a no-brainer $14MM club option for the 2024 season.

Anderson signed a one-year, $5MM deal with the Marlins last winter, landing himself a starting job in hopes of a rebound campaign. Instead, his offense declined even further. In 65 games and 241 plate appearances with Miami, Anderson mustered only a .214/.237/.226 batting line while striking out in a career-worst 28.2% of his turns at the plate. Overall, he’s taken 765 plate appearances since Opening Day 2023 and connected on just one homer with a composite .235/.271/.274 output.

Given the suddenness and magnitude of Anderson’s surprising decline, it’s natural that he’s limited to a minor league deal this winter. He was widely considered a bat-first shortstop in his final seasons with the White Sox anyhow, and his decline in the box now mirrors the decline in the field he’d experienced from 2020-23.

With the Angels, Anderson isn’t likely to unseat 24-year-old Zach Neto — the Angels’ quietly emerging everyday shortstop. Neto, the No. 13 overall pick in 2022, has quality defensive tools and turned in a .249/.318/.443 batting line with 23 homers and 30 steals last year during his first full big league season. His breakout didn’t garner as much attention as it deserved, presumably due to a slow start and the Angels’ standing as one of the game’s worst teams last year. However, Neto could miss time early in the year following November shoulder surgery, which could give Anderson an opportunity to win a job in camp.

Elsewhere in the infield, there could be other opportunity. Anthony Rendon has been injured more than he’s been healthy since signing with the Angels. If he heads back to the IL, second baseman Luis Rengifo could slide over to third base and open a spot for Anderson — if he earns that type of consideration with a decent spring training. Anderson himself could also get a look at third base. Kevin Newman and Scott Kingery are both on hand as utility options on the bench, though Kingery has minor league options remaining.

Anderson might face long odds of getting back to the majors and securing an everyday role in Anaheim, but there’s no risk in the Halos bringing him to camp to see if they can catch a glimpse of his prior All-Star form. If Anderson can indeed bounce back, he’ll be a bargain contributor on a team hoping to reverse course and get back into contention after yet another finish well below .500. If he can rebound and the team struggles as it’s tended to do in recent years, Anderson could be a summer trade chip. And, if he simply continues to look overmatched this spring, the Angels can cut him loose and won’t owe him anything.

Dodgers Sign Roki Sasaki

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Jan. 22: The Dodgers have formally announced Sasaki’s signing. Baseball America, unsurprisingly, ranked Sasaki as the new No. 1 prospect in baseball this morning.

Jan. 17: The Dodgers have landed another star out of Japan. Roki Sasaki announced on Friday evening that he’s signing with Los Angeles. The Wasserman client will reportedly receive a $6.5MM signing bonus. The Dodgers have not officially announced the deal, which can be finalized at any point until the evening of January 23.

As an international amateur, Sasaki is limited to a minor league contract with a hard-capped signing bonus. He won’t immediately occupy a 40-man roster spot, though the team will certainly select him onto the MLB roster by Opening Day. In the end, it’s a fairly unsurprising result, though other outcomes seemed somewhat possible at times. The Dodgers have long been seen as the most logical landing spot for Sasaki, and though the Padres and Blue Jays tried to make surprising runs, the most likely outcome has now come to pass.

Sasaki’s free agency has been hotly anticipated for some time. He made his debut in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball in 2021 at the young age of 19 and went on to post outstanding results over the past few years. Thanks to triple-digit velocity on his fastball and a deadly splitter, he has managed to post a 2.10 earned run average in 394 2/3 innings over the past four years. He struck out 32.7% of batters faced and limited walks to a 5.7% clip.

That performance would have made him one of the top free agents of this or any offseason, which normally would have lined him up for a massive payday. However, Sasaki seemed determined to start his major league career as soon as possible, without much regard for money.

If he had waited until he turned 25, he would have been considered a professional under MLB rules, and thus able to sign for any amount the market would bear. That was the route taken by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who secured a $325MM guarantee from the Dodgers last offseason.

But Sasaki is making the move now, having just turned 23 years old, meaning he is considered an amateur and thus subject to MLB’s international bonus pool system. Under that system, each team gets a set amount to spend on international amateurs annually. This year, each team gets between $5-8MM, a paltry amount compared to what Yamamoto secured. That at least made it theoretically possible that any club could sign him, since the big-spending clubs couldn’t outmuscle the smaller clubs like with many other free agents.

However, despite that theoretical even playing field, there were still many good reasons to expect the Dodgers to emerge victorious. Sasaki and his agent Joel Wolfe didn’t reveal much about the player’s preferences, but logically, the Dodgers are an attractive landing spot. They play on the West Coast, which is often appealing for players coming over from Asia simply due to the relative proximity. They have a strong track record of on-field success, having made the playoffs in each year going back to 2013 now and having just won the World Series a few months ago. They also roster a couple of other Japanese stars in Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani.

It wasn’t known how much Sasaki would weigh those factors compared to others. Wolfe pushed back on the notion that Sasaki cared about the presence of other Japanese players. He also suggested last month that Sasaki might prefer a smaller market, on account of some friction with the media during his time in Japan.

There were some arguments to possibly consider scenarios where he would prefer to go elsewhere. The Padres could have offered a smaller market than the Dodgers and it was reported that Sasaki has a strong relationship with current Padre Yu Darvish. The Blue Jays are owned by Rogers Communications, the club’s primary broadcaster, potentially giving them the ability to lower Sasaki’s access to the media. The fact that they are the only MLB team in Canada also theoretically opened up more endorsement opportunities from Japanese companies, as opposed to sharing the L.A. market with Ohtani and Yamamoto. The Jays also had a larger international bonus pool than the Dodgers and added to it by acquiring more pool space from the Guardians in a trade earlier today.

But despite any short-term drama that played out this offseason, the most obvious thing has happened. Sasaki has joined a team that is already loaded with stars like Ohtani, Yamamoto, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. 2005 was the last time the Dodgers won fewer than 80 games and now they are adding another hugely talented player into the mix.

Adding Sasaki’s talent is a huge boost to the roster but it’s also massive from a financial point of view. As an amateur, Sasaki will only be able to make the league minimum this year and until he qualifies for arbitration or signs an extension. That’s a massive thing for a club like the Dodgers, who already owe big sums of money to their aforementioned stars as well as Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Teoscar Hernández and plenty of others.

It also gives them an embarrassment of riches in the rotation, at least in terms of pure talent. Their rotation mix now includes Sasaki, Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Snell, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May. It’s a near inevitability that Clayton Kershaw will eventually re-sign. Even with each of Gavin Stone, Emmet Sheehan, Kyle Hurt and River Ryan set to miss most or all of next season, the Dodgers’ rotation should run eight or nine names deep. Landon Knack, Justin Wrobleski, Nick Frasso and formerly touted rookie Bobby Miller are all on hand as depth starters.

It’s a staggering amount of talent for one team. The Dodgers won the World Series last year in spite of their playoff rotation. This year, the rotation should be a strength going into October. That’s despite the injury risk associated with essentially everyone in the group. Glasnow has never surpassed 134 MLB innings in a season. Yamamoto was limited to 18 starts in his first MLB season by a rotator cuff strain. Snell has only topped 130 frames twice. Kershaw, Gonsolin and May all missed most or all of last season recovering from major surgeries. Ohtani underwent elbow surgery late in 2023 and didn’t pitch last year.

Sasaki comes with plenty of durability questions in his own right. He averaged fewer than 100 innings per season over his four years in NPB. He never reached 130 innings and was limited to 111 frames across 18 appearances a year ago. Sasaki had a pair of injuries in 2024: an oblique tear and shoulder fatigue.

The Dodgers will happily take the tradeoff of some IL stints for rate dominance. Los Angeles doesn’t place much value on bulk innings. They’re content to embrace injury risk as they chase pitchers with top-of-the-rotation upside. That’s enabled in part by their resources, of course, though money isn’t a factor for Sasaki.

Every team would have been thrilled to sign Sasaki for $6.5MM. The Dodgers will also owe a $1.3MM posting fee to the pitcher’s NPB team, the Chiba Lotte Marines. The posting fee is proportional to the size of the player’s signing bonus. As Sasaki’s bonus was capped at a few million dollars, the Marines were limited to 20% of whatever he received.

It comes out to a $7.8MM investment to land Japan’s most talented pitcher. The Dodgers have signed arguably NPB’s best pitcher in consecutive offseasons. They’ll have Sasaki for the standard six-year window of team control associated with the promotion of any prospect. He’ll be slated for salaries around the league minimum for the next three seasons. He’d then go through three years of the arbitration process. MLB rules prohibit the Dodgers and Sasaki from reaching any kind of understanding regarding a contract extension to circumvent the bonus pool limits. While there’s no official cutoff for when the Dodgers could look to extend Sasaki, they cannot have any sort of unofficial long-term deal in the works right now.

The Dodgers opened this signing period tied with the Giants for the lowest bonus pool. They had $5.1462MM to spend on international amateurs on January 15. The Dodgers allowed a few of their verbal agreements with teenage prospects to lapse to keep open funds for Sasaki. They added to their pool by dealing minor league outfielder Dylan Campbell to the Phillies and sending outfield prospect Arnaldo Lantigua to Cincinnati tonight. Their precise bonus allotment isn’t known, but Sasaki will take the vast majority of the pool. That’s a trade every team would happily make for a potential plug-and-play ace.

It’s a brutal blow for fans of the other two finalists. The Padres found out this morning that they were out of the mix. They have multiple holes in their rotation and now face an even tougher challenge in the NL West. The Blue Jays finish as the runner-up on yet another marquee free agent talent. Toronto has lost out on Ohtani, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Sasaki (among others) within the past two offseasons alone.

Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times first reported the signing bonus. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rays, Taylor Walls Avoid Arbitration

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The Rays announced Wednesday that they’ve signed infielder Taylor Walls to a one-year deal with a club option for the 2026 season. In doing so, the two parties avoided an arbitration hearing. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that Walls will earn a $1.4MM guarantee: a $1.35MM salary this coming season with a $50K buyout on a $2.45MM option for the ’26 campaign. The price of that option would be bumped by $50K, to $2.5MM, if Walls tallies 450 plate appearances, Topkin adds. Walls is represented by Vayner Sports.

Walls and Tampa Bay had exchanged figures last week, with the shortstop filing for a $1.575MM salary to the team’s $1.3MM submission. (MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected a $1.3MM salary for Walls.) It’s the first trip through the arbitration process for the infielder, who’s under team control through 2027 regardless of the outcome of that 2026 option.

The 28-year-old Walls had a brutal season at the plate in 2024 but is a talented infield defender capable of handling multiple positions. In 252 plate appearances, he slashed only .183/.282/.248 with one homer, five doubles, three triples and 16 steals (in 20 attempts). Walls did continue to show a disciplined approach, walking in 12.3% of those 252 turns at the plate — right in line with his career 12.1% mark. His contact profile was sub-par, however. Walls averaged only 86.2 mph off the bat with a bleak 24% hard-hit rate, and he punched out in 26.6% of his plate appearances.

Defensive metrics are divided on Walls, who’s primarily been a shortstop (1983 big league innings) but also has ample experience at second base (524 innings) and the hot corner (419 innings). Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating think he’s a flat-out plus with the glove. DRS, in particular, credits Walls with a whopping career mark of +35 at shortstop alone (plus another 15 DRS between second and third). Statcast has generally favored his work at third base but is down on Walls at shortstop, pegging him at two outs below average in each of the past two seasons.

The Rays clearly feel Walls is better than Statcast measures him to be. At least insofar as making the plays he’s supposed to, there’s good evidence to back that up. Walls was charged with only three errors in last year’s 625 innings of defense. He made a combined eight errors across three positions in 792 innings in 2023.

Even if the Rays decline Walls’ option for the 2026 season, he’d be under team control and arb-eligible a second time. They’d likely only do so if they felt Walls comfortably projected for less than the 75% raise his option value represents — although in that scenario, he’d be a potential non-tender candidate as well.

For now, Walls is the favorite to open the 2025 season at shortstop, though he’ll have some competition from fellow middle infielder Jose Caballero. In all likelihood, one will start the year at short and the other will fill a utility role, although Osleivis Basabe could get himself back into the mix if he shows signs of a rebound from a dreadful 2024 season this spring.

The Opening Day assignment doesn’t necessarily carry as much weight as who’ll finish the season at shortstop, though. Walls, Caballero and to a lesser extent Basabe will all be in the mix, but all eyes will be on 2021 first rounder Carson Williams, whom Baseball America just this morning tabbed as MLB’s No. 11 overall prospect. Williams, regarded as a plus defender at short, posted a .256/.352/.469 slash in a pitcher-friendly Double-A setting this past season, putting him about 42% better than average in that league, by measure of wRC+. The 21-year-old (22 in June) is likely ticketed for Triple-A to begin the season and could make his MLB debut at some point this summer, depending on how he fares early on.

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