Free Agent Rumblings: Encarnacion, Beltran, Cespedes, Mets, Colon
The Blue Jays are still at the top of the list of free agent slugger Edwin Encarnacion, agent Paul Kinzer said in an appearance on Sportsnet 590 (audio available here). Toronto has made an offer, though it “wasn’t quite where [Encarnacion’s camp] wanted to be,” and it seems that there’s still some hope of a reunion. There are other suitors, but Kinzer notes that Encarnacion will weigh matters beyond the pure contract and that “there’s a short list of where he would go to.” Kinzer noted that the market has thrown some “curves” thus far. The Red Sox have been somewhat less aggressive than had been expected, the agent acknowledged, though he noted that some unexpected teams have been in talks. While it seems there’s a lot of ground still to cover, Kinzer suggested that a signing could come together by the start of the Winter Meetings — and might well take place sooner.
Here are a few more notes on some prominent free agents:
- The Astros have serious interest in free agent outfielder/DH Carlos Beltran, according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. The Rangers still have Beltran on their radar, too, per that report. And the Red Sox remain intrigued by Beltran, but view him as one of many possible candidates, per Rob Bradford of WEEI.com (via Twitter). Boston is still casting a “wide net” in seeking a new DH. All told, it seems that the 39-year-old will have multiple options as he chases an elusive World Series title in what will be his 20th major league season.
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman downplayed any connection between his organization and top free agent slugger Yoenis Cespedes, as Feinsand reports. Cashman acknowledges that there has been some contact, but characterized it as more of a routine opening of a channel to obtain medical information and perhaps pursue dialogue in the future.
- The Mets had “preliminary talks” involving free agents Jose Bautista and Dexter Fowler over the last several days, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). But the team remains focused on trying to engineer the return of Cespedes. GM Sandy Alderson met with his agent yesterday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets. Meanwhile, rival organizations have reached out to New York to ask about the availability of lefty-swinging outfielders Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson, and Jay Bruce, per Marc Carig of Newsday (Twitter links). It’s all supposition at this point, but there does seem to be some sense in the idea of signing a right-handed-hitting outfielder while dealing a lefty. The three possible targets noted above all hit from the right side (with Fowler also switching to the left side to face righties).
- There have been some conflicting signals of late as to how interested the Mets are in bringing back veteran righty Bartolo Colon, but GM Sandy Alderson said today that there’s still interest, as MLB.com’s Barry Bloom reports. Still, it doesn’t seem as if there’s any sense of urgency, with Alderson suggesting the pitching market will have more clarity in a few weeks’ time. If the Mets don’t push to bring back Colon, the division-rival Braves may be there to step in, as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets that Atlanta has ongoing interest. (Of course, the team already landed an over-40 pitcher today.)
Braves Sign R.A. Dickey
The Braves have announced a one-year deal with free agent righty R.A. Dickey. The contract comes with a $8MM guarantee, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). That includes a $500K buyout of a 2018 option, which the team can exercise for $8MM.
Atlanta has long been said to be seeking multiple starters this winter, with the team interested in top-quality arms but also seeking to limit the length of any guarantees. This contract seems to accomplish what Atlanta hoped to do with at least one slot, plugging in a sturdy veteran without committing to a long-term deal.
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted both the match and the guarantee in his ranking of the top fifty free agents. The 42-year-old is a native of Nashville and starred at the University of Tennessee, so the move will allow him to live closer to home.
[RELATED: Updated Braves Depth Chart]
With Atlanta, the veteran knuckleballer will be tasked with providing innings and experience to an otherwise youthful staff. He notched over 200 frames annually from 2011 through 2015, and nearly would have again last year had the Blue Jays not limited his exposure late in the season.
Certainly, the Braves won’t expect the Dickey of yore, but there’s some reason to hope he can still provide quality in addition to length out of the rotation. Dickey won the Cy Young award 37 years of age and worked to a 3.95 ERA over his first three campaigns in Toronto.
Things didn’t quite turn out as hoped last year, though, after the Jays exercised a $12MM option over Dickey. He ended with a 4.46 ERA in 169 2/3 innings, with 6.7 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9. Dickey struggled to limit the long ball, with 1.49 dingers per nine hit against him, and gave up much more hard contact (30%) than had been his norm of late.
Atlanta can cross of one item from its offseason wish list with the signing, but the team has long said it’ll pursue two or three new rotation pieces. Whether or not trade or free agency will provide the remaining desired arms remains to be seen. Presumably, the organization will remain opportunistic while also showing a willingness to be patient as the market takes shape.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Reliever Notes: Chapman, Jansen, Melancon, Giants, Holland, Marlins
The Giants met this week with representatives of top free agent relievers Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon, Bob Nightengale of USA Today (on Twitter) and Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link) report. Finding a solution for the ninth inning is perhaps the top priority for Giants GM Bobby Evans, so it’s not surprising to hear that he’s looking into the three best options on the open market. It’s far from clear at this point whether the Giants are particularly interested in any of these pitchers. It will certainly be interesting to see the strategic approaches of the players and teams in the market for premium closers. There are plenty of suitors circling, but they’ll surely be somewhat cautious in doling out potentially record-setting contracts.
- We took a look yesterday at the latest on Greg Holland, who’s a risky but intriguing alternative to the three major options just noted, but there’s more ground to cover today. The Cubs are among many organizations that have real interest in Holland, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. They certainly aren’t alone, as Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports that clubs including the Rays, Indians, and Mariners — in addition to the many others who were reportedly on hand for his recent showcase — could still be involved.
- While the Marlins‘ priority is in the rotation, the club may consider bolstering its relief corps as an alternative, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports. President of baseball operations Michael Hill suggests that the team will allow the market to “dictate[] the direction” that’s ultimately taken, at least to some extent, and that the Fish will explore all free agent and trade possibilities. But if the price for a worthwhile rotation addition proves too steep, the organization may perhaps pivot a bit. “You see the trends now, and the analytics, and they may say you don’t want to face guys a third time through the lineup,” Hill said. “It puts more of an emphasis to have a stronger bullpen. A lot of our success this year was because of our strong bullpen.” Frisaro notes that the Marlins have long been interested in Chapman, though it would seemingly be a big surprise were the club to enter his market in earnest.
Cardinals Eyeing New Role For Trevor Rosenthal
The Cardinals intend to stretch out former closer Trevor Rosenthal as a starter, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. While it seems he’ll have at least some chance of earning a rotation spot, it may be that a more flexible relief role could be the end result of the experiment.
Rosenthal has long been seen as a candidate to attempt a return to starting, but it has never really been pursued since he held such a critical role in the Cards’ pen. But skyrocketing walk rates and some injuries pushed Rosenthal out of the ninth inning last year, and Seung Hwan Oh has now firmly taken the reins as the closer. Still, St. Louis has a lot riding on Rosenthal, who MLBTR projects to earn $6.3MM in arbitration.
“It terms of role we’re going to see how things go, but we’re open to anything,” GM John Mozeliak says of Rosenthal. “It was something that he has had a desire to do. As we were looking at all the different moving pieces it doesn’t hurt to have an extra arm, and in the past we’ve felt like an extra arm would help. As you start to think about bullpen structure and multiple innings it makes sense to have people prepared to do more than just a one-inning stint.”
Rosenthal certainly has the high-octane stuff to possibly feature in the kind of flexible, sometimes multi-inning role in which Andrew Miller flourished for the Indians. Michael Wacha, too, could evolve into that kind of weapon for the Cards, Goold notes, even if the team hopes he’ll be prepared to take a full starter’s load in 2017. With at least five other viable rotation candidates, though, perhaps a modified role could be a way to receive value from Wacha while allowing him to build his strength and return to his prior form.
It’s notable, too, that the Cards have yet another theoretical option for a multi-inning role that’s more than just long relief. Jaime Garcia had his share of struggles last year, as did Wacha, but has produced top-tier results when healthy in the recent past. Of course, his balky shoulder may make flexible relief usage a dicey proposition. Garcia could still be flipped in a trade, but the team already exercised his option and seems currently slated to utilize him in some kind of relief capacity (assuming, at least, that Lance Lynn returns healthy next spring).
Trade Chatter: Miggy, McCann, Greinke, Third Basemen, M’s, D-Rob
With some buzz arising yesterday about the Astros possibly pursuing Tigers superstar Miguel Cabrera, Houston GM Jeff Luhnow suggested that it was more smoke than fire, as Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle reports. While he wouldn’t comment specifically, and acknowledged that the team discusses “lots of different scenarios” with its rivals, Luhnow largely doused the rumor. “I was asked, ‘Would we consider a trade for a Hall of Fame-caliber first baseman,’ and we’re considering everything,” said Luhnow. “I think the media kind of ran with that.”
- We’ve also heard plenty of discussion of the Yankees possibly dealing catcher Brian McCann, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post has the latest. The Astros, Braves, and Nationals are “believed interested,” says Sherman, though we’ve yet to hear truly clear reporting connecting any single team to the backstop this winter. That’s due in part to the fact that McCann enjoys full no-trade protection. McCann’s agent, B.B. Abbott, did acknowledge that his client might be amenable to a return to Atlanta, where he makes his home, and will otherwise consider opportunities — with factors including location, competitiveness, and playing time — on a case-by-case basis. “He would look hypothetically at [the Braves] very seriously if [Yankees GM Brian Cashman] is able to do it,” said Abbott. “If it is a team a little closer to home that has a chance to contend that fits X, Y and Z, Mac will look at it and determine if it is a fit.” Abbott emphasized that McCann doesn’t have any kind of list of pre-approved teams, preferring instead to allow the organization to present any possible trade to him if it arises, and is hardly demanding that he be sent elsewhere.
- Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen says that he “fully anticipates” that righty Zack Greinke will pitch in Arizona next year, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports on Twitter. That’s not terribly surprising, and is hardly a committing comment, but it certainly suggests that the new D-Backs front office won’t be seeking to shed as much of Greinke’s contract as it can this winter. While the organization would surely need to entertain any serious offers for the veteran, the smarter course at this point may be to allow him to rebuild some value before seeking to unload the huge future commitment.
- The third base market could potentially see a bit of action via trade, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. He says that the Padres are getting bites on Yangervis Solarte and the White Sox are listening on Todd Frazier. Of course, there isn’t an enormous amount of demand around the game, and Justin Turner remains available as a high-quality free agent, though it’s certainly possible to imagine organizations like the Dodgers, Red Sox, Braves, and Brewers pursuing additions at the hot corner. The biggest conceivable trade piece, of course, would be Evan Longoria of the Rays, and Rosenthal says that Tampa Bay will indeed be open to considering offers. But it still remains quite difficult to see a deal coming together on him.
- The Mariners aren’t ruling out pursuit of a shortstop, though they feel comfortable with what they have, GM Jerry Dipoto told reporters including MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. Ketel Marte remains the incumbent regular, and Dipoto also cited Shawn O’Malley and Mike Freeman as internal depth pieces. On the one hand, said the GM, any more would be “more significant than finding somebody who can augment our situation at Triple-A.” On the other, it wouldn’t necessarily be a blockbuster. “If we do something at shortstop, it’s going to be more of a veteran guidance type of player,” said Dipoto. “Maybe the shortstop version of a Carlos Ruiz, but the market is not brimming with that type of player.” Free agent possibilities could in theory include Erick Aybar and Alexei Ramirez, but it seems they don’t hold much appeal for Seattle. Alternatively, the M’s could certainly also re-join their summer efforts to acquire Zack Cozart, or pursue a somewhat lesser-regarded veteran such as Danny Espinosa, though we’ve heard no specific suggestions as yet.
- White Sox GM Rick Hahn discussed the status of reliever David Robertson, who some view as a possible trade piece this winter, as Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago reports. He’s owed $25MM over the next two years and wasn’t quite himself in 2016, but robust demand for closers could make him a rather significant target. Offseason meniscus surgery isn’t expected to limit Robertson in camp, says Hahn. And the veteran reliever will also have a chance to fully recover from glut issues that Hahn says may have contributed to his struggles last year.
Reds Notes: Cozart, Votto, Rotation, Mesoraco
The Reds look to be in for a relatively quiet offseason, writes C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer, though GM Dick Williams did acknowledge that he’ll remain open to trade scenarios involving Zack Cozart at this week’s GM Meetings. “He can be a part of grooming players and he can be a part of a winning clubhouse,” said Williams of his veteran shortstop. “But if there’s something that really puts the franchise in a better position for ’18 and ’19 that works, it’s something we’d have to consider. We’ve shown the willingness to trade guys who have been with us if it helps us get better.” Williams also said that both Jose Peraza and Dilson Herrera will get opportunities next year, though the timing of those opportunities is tied to what the Reds accomplish this offseason. Rosecrans adds that solidifying the bench with a right-handed-hitting outfielder and adding to the team’s bullpen are on the to-do list this winter.
A few more notes on the Reds…
- Cincinnati has “no intention” of trading Joey Votto, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Votto’s name has come up a bit over the past few months due to reports of some prior trade talks with the Blue Jays, but a trade has never seemed especially likely due to the fact that Votto is owed $179MM over the next seven seasons and has full no-trade rights. The star first baseman has previously said he hopes to remain in Cincinnati despite the team’s rebuilding status at the moment, and Nightengale notes that the Reds value his leadership with a wave of young players on the horizon.
- While the Reds’ rotation is largely set for next season — Anthony DeSclafani, Brandon Finnegan, Dan Straily and Homer Bailey are all penciled in at the moment — Williams wouldn’t rule out the possibility of signing a veteran starter this winter, writes MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. The Reds have a number of young options lined up to compete for that fifth spot already, including Cody Reed, Amir Garrett and Robert Stephenson, but Williams sounded open to adding to that mix. “There’s certainly a chance we could sign starting pitchers,” he said. “Whether they’ll be targeted with a Minor League deal to serve as a Triple-A starter or whether we’ll go after a starting pitcher remains to be seen. We have good competition there, but it’s young guys. We have a bunch of young guys for that last spot.”
- Also via Sheldon, Williams said that the team expects Devin Mesoraco to be ready for Opening Day of the 2017 season, but the team is looking at contingency plans this winter after seeing Mesoraco play in just 38 games over the past two seasons. Mesoraco signed a four-year, $28MM contract extension prior to the 2015 campaign, but he’s had two hip surgeries and a shoulder surgery since that time, which has kept him from delivering any on-field value to the Reds over that time. “I think it’s important to prepare a contingency plan,” said Williams. “…We probably have to do some of that now. You can’t wait until after mid-January to come up with a plan. The fact that we’re optimistic that he’ll be back means you’re not going to try to go big on catching. … We’re optimistic he’ll open the season ready for catch, but probably on some sort of schedule.” As Sheldon notes, adding a veteran backstop on a low-cost or minor league deal makes sense for the Reds. Mesoraco will begin catching in mid- or late January, and he’ll share time behind the dish with Tucker Barnhart once again in 2017.
Jeremy Hellickson Leaning Toward Rejecting Qualifying Offer
Agent Scott Boras wouldn’t comment definitively on whether Jeremy Hellickson plans to accept or reject the Phillies’ $17.2MM qualifying offer on Wednesday, writes CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that Hellickson has been advised to do so. Additionally, FanRag’s Jon Heyman reports that Hellickson is leaning toward declining the offer.
It’d come as a shock if Hellickson were to accept the QO, as he’s one of only a select few starters that can reasonably expect to command a strong multi-year deal this winter. Hellickson joins lefty Rich Hill and fellow righty Ivan Nova atop a historically thin market for starting pitching. On the heels of a 3.71 ERA with 7.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 40.7 percent ground-ball rate in 189 innings of work, Hellickson has a strong enough case that we pegged him seventh among free agents this winter and projected a four-year, $60MM contract for the former AL Rookie of the Year. And, as Heyman points out, Hellickson’s quality work dates back to the second half of the 2015 campaign with the D-backs. While that year was a disappointment overall, Hellickson did indeed have a nice run to close out the year, logging a 3.86 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 42.8 percent grounder rate following the All-Star Game — numbers that look quite similar to his 2016 output.
As Salisbury writes, Boras said there’s already been considerable interest in Hellickson, which is to be expected given the dearth of options in free agency. “In this market, he’s probably the foremost young, under-30 pitcher,” said Boras. “You know, he had a 3.71 ERA in Philadelphia, which is an offensive ballpark. … He’s a guy that’s got the highest spin rate on a breaking ball. He has a lot of components that tell you why he’s successful — his command, changeup, breaking ball — and that’s creating a lot of interest for a lot of teams. And in a free-agent marketplace short on starting pitching — it’s very advantageous for him.”
If Hellickson does hit the open market — which seems exceptionally likely — it’s difficult to envision him re-signing with the Phillies. General manager Matt Klentak spoke to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi about Hellickson today at the GM Meetings (video link), telling him: “The fully honest answer is I’m happy and content either way. If we get Jeremy Hellickson back on a one-year deal, that’s great. He’s really good, and having a starting pitcher on a short-term deal is something that I’ll take every time. Conversely, if he ends up testing free agency, I’ll be rooting for him. I hope he gets every penny he’s worth, but we’ll be happy to take the draft pick.”
Hellickson and the other nine players that received qualifying offers from their respective teams have until Monday to determine whether they’ll accept or reject the offer, although any of those free agents can technically sign a deal before that deadline (which would be considered the equivalent of rejecting the QO). That’s a rare outcome, of course, though Michael Cuddyer signed a two-year deal with the Mets two years ago in the week between receiving a QO from the Rockies and the deadline to accept or decline. However, there’s been no indication that any of the free agents to receive a QO are anywhere near a decision.
Latest On Greg Holland
Former Royals closer and current free agent Greg Holland held a showcase for interested teams that was attended by roughly 18 clubs on Monday. Since that time, he’s been an oft-discussed name and has been connected to numerous clubs around the league. There’s yet to be an indication as to when or where the two-time All-Star will sign, but here’s the latest on his market…
- Agent Scott Boras told reporters today that Holland won’t be holding another showcase (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan). While Holland’s velocity wasn’t anywhere near its previous levels, Boras noted that the workout demonstrated that his client is healthy, which is what teams were more interested in. Certainly, given the fact that Holland is just over a year removed from Tommy John surgery, it’s not a surprise that his fastball was topping out in the low 90s as opposed to his previous 96 mph average. It’s reasonable to expect his velocity to continue ramping up as he regains strength and further distances himself from his operation.
- Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star writes that Boras said Holland will be open to pitching in non-closing roles next season, so his market needn’t be limited to teams that have a potential vacancy in the ninth inning. Boras tabbed Holland as a potential “HeLP” pitcher — a “High-Leverage Premium” arm that could be used in a similar capacity to the way in which Kenley Jansen, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman were used during the postseason. The Royals are believed to have interest in a Holland reunion, Dodd adds, although Boras told reporters that more than half of the teams in the league have reached out to him this week.
- The Red Sox are showing “strong” interest in Holland, tweets WEEI’s Rob Bradford, who adds that the right-hander will take about six weeks off following his showcase before he resumes his offseason throwing program. Boston already has a big-name closer in Craig Kimbrel, but they’re losing three setup arms in Brad Ziegler, Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa, so their interest in relief help is plenty logical.
- The Nationals watched Holland on Monday, writes Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post. General manager Mike Rizzo spoke a bit about Holland’s market, implying that an incentivized deal would be his preference in negotiations with Boras. “Those are usually deals that are heavily incentivized because if he pitches like Holland, he should be compensated for it,” said Rizzo. “But you also have to balance it off with the risk that the guy’s coming off Tommy John, didn’t pitch at all last year, and we’ve never seen him throw a pitch in anger since he’s come back. So you’re really going on track record, medical reports and what the doctor said. It’s a risky proposition.” Boras sounded open to a two-year deal that includes incentives when addressing the media following Monday’s showcase. Holland rated 23rd on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent list, with our staff pegging him at two years and $18MM despite the lengthy layoff.
Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
The impossible has happened. The Cubs won the World Series. Millions of Cubs fans are now contemplating something their parents and grandparents never could: a potential dynasty. While Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, and the rest of the Cubs’ front office have a free pass for life in Chicago, they’re already plotting an encore. What’s next for the Cubs?
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jon Lester, SP: $90MM through 2020. Includes $25MM mutual option for 2021 with a $10MM buyout. 2021 option becomes guaranteed with 200 innings in 2020 or 400 innings in 2019-20.
- Jason Heyward, RF: $149MM through 2023. Heyward can opt out of contract after 2018 season or after 2019 season with 550 plate appearances in 2019.
- John Lackey, SP: $12.5MM through 2017.
- Miguel Montero, C: $14MM through 2017.
- Ben Zobrist, OF/2B: $44MM through 2019.
- Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $27MM through 2019. Includes $14.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout for 2020 and an identical club option for 2021. 2019 salaries can increase based on MVP finishes. Rizzo can void 2021 option with top two finish in 2017-19 MVP voting and subsequent trade.
- Jorge Soler, OF: $15MM through 2020. Can opt into arbitration after 2017 season.
Contract Options
- Jason Hammel, SP: Cubs chose $2MM buyout over $12MM club option.
- Dexter Fowler, CF: Fowler declined his part of $9MM mutual option, triggering $5MM buyout.
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)
- Pedro Strop (5.156) – $5.5MM
- Jake Arrieta (5.145) – $16.8MM
- Hector Rondon (4.000) – $5.7MM
- Justin Grimm (3.170) – $1.8MM
- Munenori Kawasaki (3.002) – $800K
- Non-tender candidate: Kawasaki
Free Agents
- Jason Hammel, Dexter Fowler, David Ross, Chris Coghlan, Trevor Cahill, Travis Wood, Aroldis Chapman, Joe Smith
The 2016 Cubs had the best starting rotation in baseball by a long shot, and they had the rare ability to bring back the exact same group for 2017: Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, John Lackey, and Jason Hammel. Instead, Epstein kicked off the offseason with a surprising move that won’t go unnoticed by future free agents. The Cubs declined their option on Hammel, who posted a 3.79 ERA over two seasons for the club. The 34-year-old might have profiled as the best fifth starter in baseball. The Cubs feel they can do better, and didn’t feel the need to exercise the option and trade Hammel, which could have brought a low-level prospect in return. Epstein said in a statement, “Our hope is that by giving a starting opportunity to some younger pitchers under multiple years of club control, we can unearth a starter who will help us not only in 2017 but also in 2018 and beyond.”
One internal possibility is Mike Montgomery, the 27-year-old lefty the Cubs acquired from the Mariners in a July trade. Montgomery pitched well in his five starts for the Cubs, though his control remains an issue. Montgomery also made the short list of Joe Maddon’s trusted relievers as the team continued through the playoffs. Moving him to the rotation is a viable option, though it would open up a hole in the bullpen. Southpaw Rob Zastryzny, the Cubs’ second round draft pick in 2013, is another rotation option. However, with a 4.31 ERA across 23 starts at Double and Triple-A this year, Zastryzny would seem a clear downgrade from Hammel.
The free agent market for starting pitching is historically weak. The only pitcher clearly better than Hammel is former Cub Rich Hill, a brittle lefty who turns 37 in March and would hardly fit Epstein’s search for a younger starter. That brings us to the trade market. Possible candidates include Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray, and Shelby Miller, all of whom are controllable for multiple years. The potential prizes of the market are Sale and Quintana, but the White Sox could be reluctant to send one of their aces across town. The Cubs have plenty of position players they might consider trading, including Jorge Soler on the Major League side and prospects such as Ian Happ, Eloy Jimenez, Jeimer Candelario, and Mark Zagunis. The Cubs already spent a few pieces from their stash this summer, trading Gleyber Torres to get Aroldis Chapman and Dan Vogelbach to get Montgomery.
The Chicago bullpen will require serious work this winter. Though Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop handled the late innings ably for much of the season for the Cubs, Joe Maddon seemed to lose faith in them as the playoffs wore on. With combined arbitration salaries over $11MM, I can see the Cubs trading one of them. Justin Grimm is more affordable, and despite some issues with free passes, he’s worth keeping around. Carl Edwards Jr. is locked in as one of the Cubs’ more trusted relievers. Montgomery will certainly have a spot if he doesn’t land in the rotation. Travis Wood may leave for greener pastures (and a rotation job) as a free agent, while Trevor Cahill and Joe Smith did not make the playoff roster and will likely be allowed to sign elsewhere.
It is difficult to picture a team as stacked with talent and flush with money as the Cubs, coming off a World Championship, not striving for a relief ace. The free agent market happens to offer two of them, Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen. However, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports pointed out recently, signing Chapman or Jansen to a five-year deal in the $80-90MM range doesn’t fit with Epstein’s history. And Cubs GM Jed Hoyer recently expounded on “trying to be creative in finding bullpen pieces,” perhaps discovering the next Andrew Miller or Wade Davis. Andrew Cashner, anyone?
While the Cubs could turn to the trade market for a dominant reliever, options are limited. The Orioles’ Zach Britton or the Royals’ Kelvin Herrera would be excellent two-year additions, but they are not known to be available. Davis, a potential one-year pickup from Kansas City, battled a flexor strain in his elbow this summer. Barring availability of the Indians’ Andrew Miller, I don’t see any other established top relievers the Cubs could pursue. Rather than bring in a lesser closer, they could just try to get Rondon back on track, as he had an excellent season before an August triceps injury. We also must consider Epstein’s ability to think outside the box, as he did in trading for Montgomery. If the Cubs’ front office is big on a Tyler Thornburg, Nate Jones, or Alex Colome, they could use their position player depth to pry one of them loose. Regardless of the closer situation, the Cubs may do well to add another lefty reliever to the mix, with free agent options such as Brett Cecil, Boone Logan, Jerry Blevins, and Mike Dunn.
On the position player side, the Cubs have an embarrassment of riches. Behind the plate, 24-year-old Willson Contreras will be the starter after a strong rookie debut. Given his salary, the Cubs will likely go with Miguel Montero as the backup catcher replacement for the retiring David Ross. However, Maddon and Montero will have to clear the air after the catcher expressed discontent with the manager’s communication about his usage in the playoffs. It’s also not clear whether Montero can fill Ross’ role, particularly in regard to countering the large leadoffs baserunners are able to take on Jon Lester due to the lefty’s inability to make pickoff throws. Since Contreras is only 24, it may be possible for the Cubs to lean on him for 130-140 games while reducing the role of the backup and ending the idea of Lester having a personal catcher.
The infield corners are locked down with one of the best duos in baseball, Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant. Bryant, a third baseman by trade, also logged innings at the outfield corners and first base this year. If the playoffs are any indication, Javier Baez has taken over the Cubs’ regular second base job from Ben Zobrist. Addison Russell is locked in at shortstop.
The Cubs’ outfield machinations will be interesting to watch. Fowler did an excellent job as the Cubs’ center fielder and sparkplug leadoff man over the last two seasons, and the team could easily afford to sign him long-term. But doing so would only exacerbate the outfield logjam, so they may have to let him go. In that case, the Cubs have two options to fill center field. One is Albert Almora, a 22-year-old who was the Cubs’ first-round draft pick in 2012. As a contact hitter who rarely walks and only has a touch of power, Almora would be an offensive downgrade compared to Fowler. On the other hand, he can make up some of that gap with superior glovework. The other center field option is Jason Heyward, who has seven years remaining on his contract. Heyward was slated for center field when the Cubs originally signed him, so it’s a possibility despite his limited exposure at the position. He did just win a Gold Glove as a right fielder. However, after a disastrous year at the plate, Heyward will spent the winter working on his swing, and the Cubs may not want to ask him to change positions as well.
Will Heyward’s massive contract lock him into a starting job for most of 2017, as it did this year? I expect the 27-year-old to break camp as a lineup regular, but Maddon did show a willingness to bench Heyward in the playoffs. Look for a shorter leash in Heyward’s second Cubs season. Zobrist, also signed as a free agent in the 2015-16 offseason, remains slated for regular playing time. He began 2016 as the Cubs’ regular second baseman, but the emergence of Baez has pushed him to left field.
So a Zobrist-Almora-Heyward alignment seems pretty good, right? The “problem” is that the Cubs also have one of the game’s best young hitters, Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber, 24 in March, made a surprisingly fast recovery from his early-season torn ACL and LCL, serving as the Cubs’ designated hitter in the World Series. Can Schwarber catch again, alleviating some of the outfield logjam? Even Hoyer doesn’t seem to have the answer yet, plus there’s just not a big need for him behind the dish. Save for 10 interleague games in American League parks, Schwarber will need to get most of his playing time as the Cubs’ left fielder. The need to get Schwarber into the lineup creates urgency for Heyward to bounce back offensively, as Zobrist could wind up in right field when Schwarber plays.
If the Cubs will have to do some juggling to get Schwarber, Heyward, and Zobrist enough at-bats, they’ll really have a problem finding room for Jorge Soler. Soler, 25 in February, is the Cubs’ most obvious piece of trade bait. The Cubs control Soler for the next four seasons. In 765 career plate-appearances, he’s hitting .258/.328/.434. In 86 games this year, Soler showed increased power and patience at the plate, but he’s still only a slightly above average hitter. He’s also pretty clearly a below-average defender and has been injury-prone in his career. Nonetheless, Soler’s ceiling may still tantalize some teams, as the former top prospect’s bat still has All-Star potential. In potential trades with the Rays, White Sox, Phillies, and others, the Cubs could attempt to acquire a controllable starting pitcher and/or reliever for a package centered around Soler.
Once free agency starts to die down in the new year, the Cubs may want to look into a few contract extension opportunities. Hendricks and Schwarber could be candidates. Bryant and Russell would certainly be of interest, though they’re represented by Scott Boras. There’s also the looming free agency of Arrieta, who turns 31 in March. The 2015 Cy Young winner picked up where he left off in 2016, posting a 1.74 ERA through his first 14 starts. Even in that period, however, his command had begun to falter, and in the 126 2/3 innings that followed (including the playoffs), Arrieta posted a 4.19 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, and 1.14 HR/9. That performance is more in line with a Matt Moore, Ian Kennedy, or Trevor Bauer. Good, but not $30MM per year good. With a potential $105MM owed to Lester through 2021, a mega-deal for Arrieta looks a lot less appealing than it did a year ago. After 2017, Arrieta may be joined in free agency by Yu Darvish, Johnny Cueto, Danny Duffy, Masahiro Tanaka, and others, so it’s quite possible the Cubs explore alternatives.
The Cubs had baseball’s best group of position players in 2016. Even if they subtract Fowler and Soler, full seasons from Schwarber, Baez, and Contreras, plus some level of bounceback from Heyward, might result in an even stronger group in 2017. Likewise, the Cubs are looking to improve upon an already-strong starting rotation. While the bullpen needs significant retooling, the Cubs project to have a good $25MM+ in the war chest to spend on new player salaries for 2017. The team is in an incredible position for years to come, suggesting 2016 was just the beginning.
Pirates, Nationals Discussed Andrew McCutchen Trade In July
The Pirates and Nationals connected on a notable July trade that sent Mark Melancon from Pittsburgh to D.C. in exchange for Felipe Rivero and Taylor Hearn, but Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that a second blockbuster between the two sides was also discussed at length. Pittsburgh and Washington talked about a potential trade that would’ve sent Andrew McCutchen to the Nationals according to Rosenthal, though the deal apparently crumbled because there were too many moving parts at play. He adds that top prospect Victor Robles was one Pirates target in the deal.
It’s unlikely that the talks are picked back up due to the fact that there’s a gap between how the Pirates view McCutchen and how the Nats view him, Rosenthal continues, though serious trade discussions involving the 2013 NL MVP do at least indicate that the Bucs could be open to moving him this winter.
McCutchen turned in what was far and away the worst season of his career in 2016, taking notable steps backwards in terms of his offense, defense and baserunning. The 30-year-old’s .256/.336/.430 batting line still checked in a bit above the league average, per park-adjusted metrics like wRC+ and OPS+, but McCutchen had batted at least .292 with an OBP of at least .400 in each of the four prior seasons. Meanwhile, he stole a career-low six bases and was caught seven times. And in center field, the once premium defender turned in awful Defensive Runs Saved (-28) and Ultimate Zone Rating (-18.7) marks, though Rosenthal hears that the Pirates believe his poor ratings are due to the fact that McCutchen was positioned too shallow for much of the season (a problem that Dexter Fowler recently cited when discussing his own defensive improvements).
It’s not entirely clear if the Pirates will look to move McCutchen this winter or if they’ll just opportunistically listen to offers, though the team does have a near-MLB-ready replacement in the form of top prospect Austin Meadows. But even if they don’t, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports that his defensive shortcomings in 2016 could spell the end of his time in center field (Twitter link). Per Olney, the Bucs are considering a new outfield alignment that would feature Gregory Polanco in left field, Starling Marte in center field and McCutchen in right field.
If the Pirates do look to move McCutchen, though, there are undoubtedly a number of teams that would line up to take a chance on him returning to his previous heights. He’s owed a reasonable $14MM next year and also has a $14.5MM club option on his contract, which comes with a $1MM buyout. Even on the heels of a down season for McCutchen, the opportunity to acquire someone of his ceiling and owe him just a $15MM guarantee over one year (with a reasonably priced option for a second season) is intriguing for any club in need of outfield help. However, the challenge, as is the case when inquiring on any star-level player coming off a down season, will be agreeing on a price point. The Pirates almost certainly would value McCutchen at a very high level, but interested parties may be reluctant to pay a premium price for a 30-year-old that could be entering into a decline phase.
That disparity is highlighted by the package reported by Rosenthal; Robles currently ranks as the No. 10 prospect in all of baseball according to MLB.com, but Rosenthal notes that the Pirates weren’t keen on trading McCutchen for only one outfield prospect that has yet to play above Class-A. That’s certainly understandable, as it’s not uncommon at all for toolsy young outfielders to flame out, and being left with nothing to show for trading the face of the franchise would be a disastrous outcome.