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Explaining The Qualifying Offer System

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The qualifying offer system has been around since the 2012-13 offseason, but it remains a complicated and sometimes misunderstood process. Teams will be making their decisions in short order, so it’s a good time for a quick refresher on how things work.

Here are the key components of the system:

  • The value of the qualifying offer, which is determined annually by averaging the top 125 player salaries from the previous year, will be worth $15.8MM this offseason. All qualifying offers are for the same duration (one year) and the same amount (i.e., $15.8MM for 2015-16).
  • Teams have until five days after the World Series to make qualifying offers. At that point the players have seven days to accept.
  • Once a team makes a qualifying offer, the player has two choices: he can accept the one-year deal or decline in search of other offers. If he declines the offer and signs elsewhere, his new team will have to surrender a top draft pick (see more on this below).
  • No player has ever taken a qualifying offer, but if one does, he cannot be traded (absent consent) until June 15 of the following season (i.e., 2016), as Steve Kinsella of Sports Talk Florida recently noted and MLBTR has confirmed. Even if a player grants such consent, only $50K in cash can be exchanged as part of the trade.
  • Teams that sign free agents who turned down qualifying offers will surrender their first unprotected draft pick in the following year’s draft. The first ten selections in the draft are protected. This year, the Phillies, Reds, Braves, Rockies, Brewers, Athletics, Marlins, Padres, Tigers, and White Sox have protected choices. Those clubs would surrender their second-highest selections if they reach terms with a QO-declining free agent.
  • Forfeited picks don’t go to other MLB teams (as they used to under the old Type A/B system). Instead, they disappear and the first round is condensed. In turn, teams that lose a player who declined a qualifying offer are awarded a compensatory pick at the end of the first round, before the competitive balance choices.  Such compensation picks are awarded in the inverse order of record. As a result of these rules, the draft order is constantly fluctuating over the offseason. Click here for last year’s ultimate draft order to see how it can end up looking.
  • When a team re-signs a player that has previously declined a qualifying offer from that team, no draft forfeiture or compensation takes place.
  • Only players who have been with their clubs for the entire previous season are eligible for compensation. Thus, players traded mid-season — e.g., Johnny Cueto, Ben Zobrist, Yoenis Cespedes, and David Price — are not eligible to receive a qualifying offer.
  • Qualifying offers operate independently of options. Hence, a player can receive a qualifying offer even if their option is declined (whether by team or player) or if they opt out of a deal. Hence, Zack Greinke is eligible for a qualifying offer if he opts out of his contract, as expected.

If you’re interested in learning more about the qualifying offer system’s function in practice, check out these prior posts from MLBTR: Avoiding The Qualifying Offer; Contextualizing The Qualifying Offer System; Assessing The Qualifying Offer System & Its Purposes. Also, MLBTR has run polls on some of the many players who appear to be debatable qualifying offer candidates this season. You can read more on their situations, and see the poll results, at the following links: Marco Estrada (Blue Jays); Matt Wieters (Orioles); Denard Span (Nationals); Daniel Murphy (Mets).

This post is adapted, in part, from this 2012 post from former MLBTR scribe Ben Nicholson-Smith.

Marlins In “Serious Talks” With Don Mattingly

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The Marlins are in “serious talks” with Don Mattingly regarding the club’s open managerial position, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. Both sides expect to reach agreement, per the report.

All indications have been that the former Dodgers skipper was the focus of Miami’s managerial search. MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro said yesterday that an interview on Monday went well, with the sides seemingly set to talk about contract terms. And today’s report suggests that negotiations are progressing in earnest.

Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria, a noted Yankees afficionado, is said to be a huge fan of Mattingly. Miami put a hold on its nascent managerial search to see how things would shake out with Los Angeles, and move quickly on Mattingly after he agreed to part ways with the team.

Though he was unable to guide the Dodgers deep into the post-season, he was seemingly successful at managing the club’s big contracts and big personalities. Under Mattingly’s leadership, the club carried a .551 overall regular season winning percentage.

The Marlins present something of a different challenge, of course. There’s much less media attention and a much lower payroll, though keeping a dugout job for a Loria-owned team has not proven easy over the years. In recent years, the organization has churned through Ozzie Guillen, Mike Redmond, and past (and future?) GM Dan Jennings.

As Heyman notes, the Dodgers remain on the hook for the remaining $1.6MM owed Mattingly under his prior contract. A new deal with Miami would be expected to “easily top” that amount in annual value, per the report.

It’s worth bearing in mind that a deal may well not be announced until after the conclusion of the World Series, even if it’s reached before that point. Frisaro tweets that the club likely will indeed hold off on officially naming a new skipper until that point.

List Of 2016 Super Two Qualifiers

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Presented below is the list of players who have qualified for Super Two status for arbitration purposes this year. (Service time in parentheses.) As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently tweeted, the service time cutoff is 2.130. You can find arbitration salary projections for these players right here.

Click here to read more about how the Super Two concept works. Note that, as the link shows, the originally projected service time cutoff moved down as things played out over the course of the season. That brought some notable names into early arbitration qualification — namely, Calhoun and Rendon — which could have a big impact on their earning power in potential extension scenarios.

It’s also important to bear in mind that several of the players listed above have already agreed to long-term extensions: Gyorko, Lagares, and Archer. Notably, the size of the guarantee provided by Archer’s contract is dependent upon his Super Two status. By reaching it (as had been expected), he keeps a $25.5MM overall guarantee. That total would have been reduced to $20MM otherwise.

That contract structure reflects the importance of reaching Super Two status. Doing so not only bumps a player’s salary a year early, but sets a higher floor for future paydays.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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With several key players hitting the free agent market and areas of need all over the diamond, the Orioles’ roster could look significantly different come Opening Day.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Adam Jones, OF: $49MM through 2018
  • J.J. Hardy, SS: $28.5MM through 2017 (includes $2MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2018; option vests based on plate appearances)
  • Ubaldo Jimenez, SP: $26.5MM through 2017

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

The Orioles have one of the most distinguished free agent classes of any team, and yet even with all of these notables hitting the open market, Adam Jones sees it as an opportunity.  “It’s going to be exciting to see what goes on this offseason because I know when you have a lot of free agents that means you have a lot of money to spend,” Jones told the Baltimore Sun’s Dan Connolly in a late-season interview.  “And so, hopefully, I can influence some officials to spend a little bit of that money.”

Since Dan Duquette took over as executive VP of baseball operations in late 2011, the Orioles have indeed shown an increased willingness to spend, going from an $84MM Opening Day payroll in 2012 to just under the $119MM mark for last season’s opener.  A nice chunk of that increase has gone to Jones himself via his six-year, $85.5MM extension, which is still the largest contract in O’s franchise history.  The Orioles may well have to break that record in order to re-sign some of their own top free agents or add major talents to replace those departing stars, which also means overcoming a well-documented wariness to long-term free agent deals.

First, the good news for the Orioles and their fans.  Manny Machado was healthy and had a superstar year, Jones continued to produce, Jonathan Schoop broke out as an everyday second baseman, Ubaldo Jimenez had a solid bounce-back campaign and Zach Britton cemented himself as a reliable closer while headlining one of the game’s better bullpens last season.  Combine these with former fourth overall pick Kevin Gausman, who is now established as a full-time starter, and there are worse building blocks to have in place for a team looking to reload as an AL East contender.

The problem, however, is that these are also pretty much the only areas of relative certainty amidst a very unsettled Orioles roster.  It’s possible that the O’s will have openings at first base (Chris Davis), setup man (Darren O’Day), right field (Gerardo Parra), catcher (Matt Wieters) and at the front of the rotation (Wei-Yin Chen).

Let’s begin with the rotation, as it stands out as an area of need even if Chen returns  — a seemingly unlikely scenario, according to several pundits.  Beyond Jimenez and Gausman, Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez are likely to be back despite rough seasons that saw their ERAs catch up to their generally unimpressive career advanced metrics.  It was poor timing for the arb-eligible pitchers, who failed to maximize their earning power. Assuming the Orioles bring them back, a total of $11.1MM in combined arbitration earnings is a very good price for two innings-eaters (though obviously Baltimore hopes the two can deliver more than just innings next year).  If not, Tillman and Gonzalez could both potentially be non-tender candidates come next winter as their price tags keep rising.

A more aggressive move would be for the Orioles to non-tender Gonzalez (the less established of the two) this winter and replace him with one of Tyler Wilson or Mike Wright.  This frees up more money to pursue a true top-of-the-rotation starter, and there’s no shortage of big-name aces on the market this winter.  Baltimore could also tender Tillman and Gonzalez and then trade one or both to open a rotation spot, though they’d certainly be selling low on either pitcher.

Of course, the O’s have been particularly hesitant to spend big on pitching.  Jimenez’s four-year, $50MM deal is the largest contract the team has ever given to a pitcher, and that’s probably one Duquette would like to have back given Jimenez’s up-and-down performance through two seasons.  It’s probably safe to assume that David Price and Zack Greinke are out of Baltimore’s price range.  Jordan Zimmermann or Johnny Cueto would command a deal worth at least twice Jimenez’s price tag, and any of the names in the second and third tiers of the free agent pitching market (Chen himself, Mike Leake, Jeff Samardzija, Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy) are all good bets to exceed Jimenez’s number.

Could the Orioles deal for an ace?  They may not have the trade chips available given their thin farm system, which could be even more lacking given Dylan Bundy’s ongoing shoulder problems.  The former top prospect is out of options, so while he could still emerge as a secret weapon if healthy, he’ll have only a short window in the Arizona Fall League and Spring Training to prove he’s fit.

Expect the O’s to look at Scott Kazmir, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ or any other quality starters who posted Chen-like numbers in 2015 but could be signed on shorter-term deals than the four or even five years that Chen could command.  Simply replacing Chen, of course, doesn’t solve Baltimore’s overall pitching issues.  Either owner Peter Angelos shows a greater willingness to spend on free agent arms or else the Orioles will again be relying on a lot of things to go right for their incumbent starters.

The same question of spending also applies to Davis, who is projected by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes to land a six-year, $144MM contract this offseason.  Unlike the free agent pitching market, this winter’s list of available first basemen isn’t star-studded, so there’s no easy way to make up Davis’ 47 home runs.  Someone like Adam Lind (if the Brewers either don’t pick up his option or look to trade him) could be at least a passable replacement; while Lind isn’t an everyday option since he can’t hit left-handed pitching, he could be platooned with prospect Christian Walker, a right-handed bat.  The Orioles could also look to trade for a similar left-handed first baseman like Ryan Howard or Adam LaRoche, or sign a potential non-tender candidate such as Pedro Alvarez or Logan Morrison. The soon-to-be-posted Byung-ho Park could also be a consideration. After all, Baltimore has dabbled in the Korean market in recent years (e.g., Suk-min Yoon) and successfully nabbed Chen from Taiwan.

Filling that gap at first base would open the door for the Orioles to replace Davis’ power with a big corner outfield bat, though names like Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward would again require huge financial commitments.  Baltimore’s only current corner outfield options are David Lough, Nolan Reimold and Junior Lake, so it’s probably no surprise that the team is interested in bringing Parra back to bolster either left or right field.

In late August, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd projected that Parra could earn a 3-4 year deal with an average annual value in the $10-$15MM range, though that was before Parra suffered through a miserable September and finished with only a .625 OPS in his 238 PA as an Oriole.  Even if Parra’s poor finish lowered his price into the three-year/$24MM range, in my opinion Parra may not be worth such a commitment and the O’s could instead use that money on a more consistent free agent bat.

Given the question marks in the corner outfield spots and at first base, re-signing Steve Pearce could be a sneaky-important move for the Orioles given his versatility.  Pearce battled some injuries last season and regressed after his big 2014 campaign, though he still hit 15 homers in 325 PA.  While Pearce’s contract value is somewhat hard to predict, his price tag shouldn’t be all that big, unless the Orioles lose him to a team that can offer more regular playing time than the part-time role he’d likely receive in Baltimore.

Beyond the headline names on the free agent outfield market, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Orioles made runs at signing Ben Zobrist or Colby Rasmus, both of whom drew interest from Baltimore last winter.  Since the O’s prefer shorter-term free agent deals in general, both could be good fits — Rasmus has said he may not want to play longer than a few more seasons, while Zobrist is entering his age-35 season and may not command too lengthy a contract.  (Though a four-year deal isn’t out of the question for Zobrist since his versatility is expected to draw a large amount of interest in his services.)

As mentioned, the Orioles had a pretty strong bullpen last season.  While O’Day’s great numbers were a big part of that success, Baltimore could withstand his departure by elevating someone like Brad Brach to the setup role.  The O’s could also explore a pretty strong setup reliever market, looking at the likes of Mark Lowe, Tony Sipp or Shawn Kelley to replace O’Day (who may earn the largest contract of any relief pitcher this offseason), or perhaps go with lower-cost options.

The O’s also have a replacement for Wieters in the form of Caleb Joseph, who only hit .234/.299/.394 with 11 homers over 355 PA last year but is a solid defender and pitch-framer.  There’s been speculation that Wieters might not even be issued a qualifying offer by the Orioles in the wake of his disappointing 2015 season, as the catcher struggled both offensively and defensively after returning from Tommy John surgery.

I tend to believe that Wieters would indeed reject a QO if offered.  Firstly, it would be stunning if the first player to accept a qualifying offer was a Scott Boras client given how the agent has so harshly criticized the QO concept.  Secondly, between the thin catching market and Wieters’ star pedigree, he’s sure to find a multi-year deal even in the wake of a tough season.  Baltimore can therefore be pretty confident in issuing Wieters a qualifying offer and at least ensuring themselves a compensatory draft pick if he signs elsewhere.

The Orioles have just under $42MM committed to three players (Jones, Jimenez, J.J. Hardy) for 2016 and MLBTR projects roughly $34.9MM for their 11 arbitration-eligible players, assuming everyone is tendered a contract.  Pre-arb players in regular roles (i.e. Schoop, Gausman, Joseph) will take up a few more roster spots at minimum salaries.  If the 2016 payroll stays in the $119MM range, that leaves Duquette with approximately $42MM to work with this winter.

That’s certainly enough room to add at least one big salary into the mix.  Since Angelos has specifically gone on record as saying the team will try to re-sign Davis, I would guess that if the Orioles are going to break the bank on a signing, it will be for the slugging first baseman since that kind of power is hard to find in today’s game.  The O’s have been more willing to spend on position players (Jones, Hardy, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis) than on pitchers, so it makes sense that they’d try harder to retain a familiar big bat than they would a free agent ace.

Jones, Jimenez and Hardy are also the only players signed beyond 2016, so the Orioles have space on the books for another long-term commitment.  It seems likely, however, that the O’s will look to the future in another sense by considering extensions for Schoop and possibly Machado, though Duquette has said that a Machado extension isn’t a major priority for this offseason.

This certainly promises to be, by far, the Orioles’ busiest winter under Duquette, as his tenure has been marked more by canny under-the-radar acquisitions  — i.e. Chen, Gonzalez or Pearce — than by flashy trades or free agent signings.  Even the one-year, $8MM signing of Nelson Cruz in February 2014 (Duquette’s most successful free agent deal) was rather a unique circumstance given how Cruz’s market was chilled by a PED suspension and the qualifying offer.

Hardy was the only one of Baltimore’s free agents to re-sign last winter, as the Orioles lost Cruz, Markakis and Andrew Miller to free agency.  The O’s have internal replacements for a few of this winter’s free agents, but another mass exodus would leave the team with simply too many holes to fill.  Duquette will have to be creative and Angelos will have to be willing to go beyond his contractual comfort zone in order to get the Orioles back into playoff contention.  If not…well, if last winter’s free agent 0-fer allegedly led to tension between Duquette and manager Buck Showalter, a repeat performance could result in some front office changes.

Free Agent Profile: Jordan Zimmermann

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Teams will have to decide whether Jordan Zimmermann is a top-of-the-staff stalwart or a steady mid-rotation arm.

Strengths/Pros

Zimmermann is often credited with a “bulldog” mentality because he so consistently attacks hitters in the zone. He conveys a sort of unemotional intensity on the hill that contributes to his well-earned reputation for steadiness and relentlessness. But he’s not just a big, lumbering arm; Zimmermann is also an excellent athlete who moves well off the mound and fields his position well.

Sep 30, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann (27) delivers a pitch to an Atlanta Braves batter in the first inning of their game at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Age and innings go a long way in determining the length of free agent deals available to starting pitchers, and Zimmermann fares well in both regards. While he’s not the youngest arm on the market, he won’t turn thirty until May 23rd of next year.

Zimmermann has also been quite durable in recent years. He was shut down early in 2011, his first year back from Tommy John surgery, as the Nationals sought to build up his innings. In the four years since, Zimmermann has made at least 32 starts each season while compiling 810 1/3 total innings. Though he’s never put up gaudy single-season inning tallies, he is fifth in the game in total starts since the beginning of 2012 and ranks 12th in total frames over that span.

That’s a nice base to work from, but performance will obviously drive both years and value. Heading into this season, there was reason to believe that Zimmermann could reach (or even exceed) Jon Lester’s six-year, $155MM deal with the Cubs. After all, he was coming off of two consecutive years in which he landed in the top ten in the National League Cy Young voting, building off of two very good seasons before that. His 2014 campaign, in particular, was outstanding: Zimmermann posted a 2.66 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against a league-low 1.3 BB/9.

While he has often described his approach as pitching to contact, Zimmermann has also shown the ability generate swings and misses (though, as explained below, that comes with some caveats). 2014 set a high-water mark for Zimmermann’s strikeouts, but he was able to return to that level over the latter half of last year, so it may be too early to write off his ability in that regard despite uninspiring overall numbers in 2015.

And focusing on the swings and misses tends to detract from the veteran’s single best skill: his impeccable control. Zimmermann has never permitted more than two free passes per nine innings over a full season. Since the start of 2011, only six starters with over 500 innings have bettered his walk rate.

Another area where Zimmermann has performed well is in limiting platoon splits. He’s been slightly better against righties historically, of course, but has handle opposite-handed hitters in equivalent manner in most regards. Lefties do draw walks at a higher rate (2.3 vs. 1.4 BB/9), but their overall production has not been markedly greater (.310 vs. .286 wOBA).

Weaknesses/Cons

There’s a lot to like, but 2015 represented a step back for the righty, and not just in the earned run department. Zimmermann’s 3.66 ERA was by far the highest full-season mark of his career, and his FIP (3.75), xFIP (3.82), and SIERA (3.83) marks all landed a fair sight over his career averages.

Of greatest concern to his outlook, perhaps, was the failure to maintain what had been a breakout season in the strikeout department. His 2014 swinging strikeout jump (from the mid-8 percent range to 10.3%) has basically dropped back to where it was before and now looks like an outlier. And that issue is compounded by the fact that Zimmermann doesn’t generate a ton of groundballs, having settled into the low-forty-percent range.

It is interesting to note that Zimmerman trended upwards in terms of strikeouts over the season’s second half, posting 8.3 K/9 over his final 90 innings of the year. But that was not accompanied by success, as it coincide with a large jump (from 0.64 to 1.60 HR/9) in home run proneness that almost entirely explains his earned run leap.

Bottom line: it’s not clear that Zimmermann can generate the whiffs you’d like to see while keeping the home runs in check. Doing both of those things drove his outstanding 2014, but he was running a HR/FB rate (6.4%) that was significantly below his career level (now 9.1%). This past year, while Zimmermann’s batted ball results were in line with his track record, he allowed a career-high 1.07 HR/9 on a 10.9% HR/FB rate.

Zimmermann certainly has had success in the past despite middling K numbers, but he’s always outperformed ERA estimators. In particular, SIERA has never been a big fan — crediting him with just a 3.62 lifetime mark. He fares better by measure of FIP (3.40) and xFIP (3.57), but all those numbers paint him more as a steady mid-rotation arm than the somewhat higher-level arm that his 3.32 lifetime ERA might suggest.

As teams decide how to judge those numbers, they’ll also be looking at other recent indicators. The pitch value of his fastball (per Fangraphs) fell into the negative for the first time over a full season after consistently rating as a plus offering. Possibly reflecting some lost confidence, Zimmermann dropped his fastball use rate back into the low-60% range after it had risen to over 70% in 2014. He also continued to work higher in the zone with the pitch, continuing a trend from 2014. While that might have helped him restore the swings and misses, it came with too many long balls and marginal grounder rates. 

So, what’s up with the heater? One possible root issue is an average velocity drop. The offering was still within one mile per hour of his top career speed, so it isn’t necessarily a huge red flag, but that velo loss — combined with the other issues and sagging production — isn’t particularly promising, either.

Another historical strength that came into some question last year is performance against left-handed bats. Zimmermann’s fastball-slider-curve mix is well-established and has long been effective, but he’s generally also sprinkled in the occasional change. He largely dropped that pitch last year. Whether or not that’s a contributing cause, Zimmermann allowed a .281/.338/.438 batting line to opposite-handed hitters. Those are his worst-ever full-season marks in each of the triple-slash stats.

Personal

Zimmermann is a native of Wisconsin and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point. ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick’s 2013 profile of Zimmermann paints him as something of a mid-western archetype. An outdoorsman in the offseason, he doesn’t put much of his personality on display publicly but is known to deliver “a wry sense of humor” in the clubhouse environment.

Jordan and his wife Mandy have two children, the second of whom was born just one day before he took the bump on July 12 of this year. It wasn’t his best outing, but Zimmermann wasn’t making any excuses. “Still have to go out there and throw the ball over the plate,” he said.

Market

As mentioned above, there was a time where the Lester deal looked plenty attainable for Zimmermann, who looked to be chasing David Price and Johnny Cueto in earning power. Now, the Relativity Client has clearly been bypassed by the older Zack Greinke and stands alongside Cueto as players whose value took a bit of a hit down the stretch. There’s competition, as well, from pitchers like Mike Leake, Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen, and Japan’s Kenta Maeda.

Though he won’t reach the AAV achieved in the Lester deal or even the somewhat lighter pre-2012 Greinke pact ($147MM over six years), it still seems plausible that Zimmermann will get a sixth guaranteed year — possibly at a lower rate. There’s some wiggle room in his market, especially if some teams still prefer the suddenly questionable Cueto, but there ought to be a lot of clubs with interest, helping prop up his floor and creating the possibility of some upward movement.

There are any number of clubs that might pursue Zimmermann, some of whom won’t likely be after the two arms ahead of him. The fact that he’ll be bound by draft compensation will provide something of a limiting factor, but there ought to be a good number of suitors. Basically the entire AL East (Rays aside) could theoretically have interest, as might the Tigers, Astros, Cubs, Dodgers, and Giants. Somewhat less obvious teams like the Mariners, Angels, Twins, Marlins, Cardinals, and Diamondbacks could also make sense. And if Zimmermann’s market sags early, other opportunistic buyers might conceivably get involved. A return to the Nationals can’t be written off entirely, but that ship likely sailed when the sides were unable to match up on an extension.

Expected Contract

It might be on the higher side of his market, but given his durability and broad potential market, I think Zimmermann will get to six years — though he might have to sacrifice a bit of AAV to get there. I’ll predict a six-year, $126MM contract.

Quick Hits: Royals, Lackey, Odor, Brown, D-Backs

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While Alex Gordon is a lock to decline his $14MM player option, he doesn’t want to leave the Royals, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports in his latest notes column. “I want to be here,” Gordon told Heyman. “This is like my second home. We love it here … Obviously, things happen … but this is where we want to be.” Of course, Gordon figures to have a chance at a nine-figure contract on the open market if he chooses to test it, and the Royals have never come close to spending that kind of cash on any player before, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently pointed out. Heyman also spoke to Johnny Cueto, who acknowledged that his late slide has damaged his free-agent chances. “That’s the way it is,” Cueto said, adding that he hopes he can get some degree of redemption in the World Series. Cueto said adjusting to a new league has played a part in his struggles, but he’s still plenty open to the challenge of signing with an AL club. “The DH isn’t a bad thing,” said Cueto. “I like the challenge.”

More from Heyman’s piece and from around the league…

  • John Lackey may have recently turned 37 years old, but his strong work in 2013-15 has some in the industry thinking that he could land a three-year deal worth $15-20MM annually, Heyman writes. I’d agree that a three-year offer is plausible, though the annual values mentioned by Heyman — especially at the top end of that range — seem pretty aggressive.
  • The Rangers “are expected” to discuss a long-term deal with standout second baseman Rougned Odor following the completion of the World Series, Heyman hears. Odor, still just 21 years old (22 in February), was demoted to the minors earlier this year due to enormous struggles at the plate, but he was among baseball’s most productive middle infielders upon his return to the bigs. Odor went 3-for-3 on June 15 when he was recalled and proceeded to hit .292/.334/.527 with 15 homers through season’s end. Some might assume a bloated BABIP helped to inflate his numbers, but he batted a very sustainable .305 on balls in play after his recall from the minors.
  • The Orioles have “limited interest” in former Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko tweets. It’ll be interesting to see where Brown lands, and what kind of deal he gets. Baltimore would seem, on paper, to be somewhat of a fit for a buy-low corner outfield option, especially if the team’s front office devotes substantial resources to addressing its needs in the rotation and/or re-signing Chris Davis. However, Kubatko’s tweet doesn’t make it seem like Brown is anywhere near the top of Baltimore’s offseason targets.
  • Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic provides an excellent preview of the Diamondbacks’ expected search for starting pitching this offseason. Arizona can’t afford top-tier arms like David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann, he notes. Many teams will be in that boat, which could push the market for second-tier arms like Mike Leake beyond the D-Backs’ comfort zone. Piecoro calls Lackey a “perfect fit” for the Snakes, noting that his age will cap the number of years Lackey can receive and keep him in Arizona’s comfort range. Among other free agent candidates suggested by Piecoro are Hisashi Iwakuma and Nippon Professional Baseball righty Kenta Maeda, who is expected to be posted this winter. In terms of trade candidates, Piecoro points out that the Indians and D-Backs line up well, as Arizona has plenty of young bats — a big need for Cleveland, which possesses a wealth of young pitching.

Phillies Notes: Free Agency, Pitching, Coaches

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Befitting the sort of carefully-plotted approach that Phillies owner John Middleton suggests, new GM Matt Klentak said yesterday that the team likely won’t make any big splashes in free agency, as Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News reports. “I think as a rule of thumb the free-agent market is not the best place to invest your money . . . that’s the last place we should focus,” Klentak said. “But I do think there’s a lot of good players in free agency every single year. The different stages of development will dictate that you take a different route in free agency every single year. The route we take this offseason may differ from the one we take next offseason and the one after that.” Of course, that’s not to say that the team will sit out the market; at the very least, notes Lawrence, it’ll need to look at adding starting pitching.

A few more Phillies notes as the Royals and Mets do battle in the World Series…

  • The Phillies will look to add some innings to their rotation this winter, writes CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury in chronicling some of the key takeaways from Klentak’s introductory press conference. Top-of-the-market arms aren’t going to be a focus for Philadelphia, but the team will look to add some a veteran innings eater or two in order to support young arms like Aaron Nola. Klentak gave a bit of insight into his philosophy, noting that pitching “will absolutely become an organizational focus” for the Phillies. Klentak stressed that the team must focus on adding pitching in trades, in free agency, via waiver claims, on the international market and in the draft. “However we need to do it, we will add pitching, pitching, pitching,” said Klentak. “Because if you can pitch, you have a chance to win every night.”
  • The Phillies announced that Larry Bowa and Juan Samuel have both agreed to contracts for 2016. Bowa will return as bench coach, while Samuel will move from first to third base coaching duties. Bowa, in particular, was a threat to leave after twice interviewing for the Marlins’ managerial vacancy.
  • Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes that the Phillies’ plan to increase emphasis on analytics is a good start, but the club also needs to aggressively spend money to turn the franchise around. However, Brookover’s not referring to an immediate free-agent spending spree; rather, he campaigns for Klentak and MacPhail to use the team’s considerable financial resources to go above and beyond in next year’s international spending pool. He also feels that the Phillies should be willing to pay top dollar (and then some) in order to lure the best scouts and player development executives possible.

Elected Free Agency: Carlos Corporan, Darwin Barney

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As teams continue to go through the process of end-of-season 40-man roster maintenance, outrighted players will continue to elect free agency, expanding the available pool of talent this offseason. Here are today’s notable players to elect free agency…

  • Rangers catcher Carlos Corporan and outfielder Antoan Richardson have refused outright assignments and elected free agency, reports Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram (Twitter link). The 31-year-old Corporan served as a backup to Robinson Chirinos this season but batted just .178/.244/.299 with three homers in 121 plate appearances. Corporan is a career .218/.280/.342 hitter in parts of six big league seasons (780 plate appearances). He’d have been arbitration eligible this winter, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $1.2MM salary. Richardson, 32, underwent surgery late in spring training to repair a herniated disk in his back. He has limited big league experience but is a prolific and efficient base-stealer in his minor league career.
  • Baseball America’s Matt Eddy reports that Darwin Barney has elected free agency after being outrighted by the Blue Jays. Barney, a fixture in the Cubs’ infield from 2010-14, came to the Blue Jays by way of trade from the Dodgers in September. Toronto had a need at second base with Devon Travis again sidelined by injuries, and Barney was picked up to fill that role despite the fact that being acquired after Sept. 1 made him ineligible for the postseason. Barney spent most of the season in Triple-A with the Dodgers, where he batted .277/.325/.354. He has an excellent defensive reputation and won an NL Gold Glove Award in 2012.

White Sox Claim Jacob Turner From Cubs

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The White Sox have claimed right-hander Jacob Turner off waivers from the Cubs, according to the club’s transactions page at MLB.com. Turner, 24, didn’t pitch in the Majors this season, spending most of the year on the 60-day disabled list due to  a strained right flexor tendon and right shoulder inflammation.

Formerly one of the top prospects in the game — Baseball America ranked him within its Top 30 for three consecutive offseasons from 2010-12 — Turner’s career has been slowed dramatically by injuries. The Tigers selected him ninth overall in the 2009 draft, and he was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante from Miami to Detroit.

Turner spent parts of three seasons with the Marlins and was mostly healthy there (he did miss time in 2014 with shoulder issues), but he wasn’t able to deliver on his considerable upside. Miami made the tough call to designate him for assignment in August of 2014, as he was out of options and couldn’t be sent to the minors without clearing waivers (which was never going to happen at that point). Miami placed Turner on revocable waivers, with the hope of working out a trade to a club with a high priority, and there was some surprise when the Rockies, who then had the No. 1 waiver priority, neglected to place a claim. The Cubs, who were second in line, promptly claimed him and worked out a trade, sending minor league right-handers Tyler Bremer and Jose Arias to Miami in return.

In hindsight, the series of transactions was largely inconsequential, as Turner was healthy enough to throw just 34 2/3 unsuccessful innings for the Cubs, though it made plenty of sense for the Cubs to roll the dice on a prospect with the type of upside Turner possessed.

The White Sox will now look to do the same, although because he’s out of options, they’ll have to either pass him through outright waivers — something the Cubs just failed at doing, hence the claim — or keep him on the 40-man roster all winter and Spring Training. Turner would have to break camp with the big league club next year or be exposed to outright waivers late in the spring.

Chase Utley Intends To Play In 2016

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Though some have wondered whether or not Chase Utley will return for a 14th Major League season, Utley’s agent, Joel Wolfe of the Wasserman Media Group, tells the New York Post’s Joel Sherman that Utley is “one hundred percent” returning for the 2016 season.

The Dodgers hold a $15MM club option on Utley that is, as Sherman points out, an easy option to decline. The 37-year-old Utley batted just .212/.286/.343 between the Phillies and Dodgers this season — Philadelphia traded him to L.A. in exchange for Darnell Sweeney and John Richy in August — and an ankle injury kept him from reaching the 500 plate appearances necessary for that $15MM option to automatically vest.

Utley’s season could begin with a two-game suspension, though, after a controversial slide in the NLDS took out Mets shortstop Ruben Tejada and fractured his right fibula. MLB ruled that Utley would be suspended for the next two games of the Division Series, but his camp appealed the suspension. Players are typically allotted up to two weeks to assemble their case when appealing a suspension, Sherman notes, and as such the hearing was delayed until next season so as not to overshadow the remainder of the playoffs or the offseason.

Utley’s disappointing 2015 campaign marked the first full season of his career in which he failed to reach double-digit home runs (he hit eight) and also represented the first time since 2004 that his adjusted OPS fell shy of the league average. He’ll face a limited market as he looks for a new team in free agency, though his track record should earn him an incentive-based big league deal for a team with needs at second base. The Yankees, Royals, White Sox, Angels (who had interest in him this summer) and Padres all make some degree of sense as highly speculative fits for the Phillies icon.

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