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Cardinals Appear Unlikely To Trade Ryan Helsley

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With the Cardinals viewing next season as an opportunity to transition to a younger core, various St. Louis players jumped out as logical trade candidates. Ryan Helsley was chief among them, as the hard-throwing righty is one year from free agency. Helsley is one of the best relievers in baseball and would surely get a lot of attention on the trade market.

Nevertheless, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that teams in contact with the Cardinals expect St. Louis to hold their closer into next season. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak supported that notion. “(A trade is) something we will always remain open-minded to, but our plan is to have him be part of our organization,” Mozeliak told Rosenthal. That aligns with reporting from Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, who wrote last month that the Cards were inclined to keep Helsley unless blown away by the offers.

That stops a little short of taking him off the market entirely. It’s not quite as definitive a declaration as, say, A’s GM David Forst flatly stating they were going to keep designated hitter Brent Rooker last month. Still, it’s notable that the team’s front office leader went on record to downplay the possibility of a trade.

Helsley has had a dominant three-year run at the back of the bullpen. He broke out with a 1.25 earned run average across 64 2/3 innings in 2022. A forearm strain wiped out a few months of his ’23 campaign, but he posted a 2.45 ERA through 36 2/3 frames when able to take the mound. Helsley’s arm held up over a completely healthy season this year. He fired a career-best 66 1/3 innings with a 2.04 mark over 65 appearances.

After beginning his career in a setup role, Helsley proved himself an elite closer this past season. He led the majors with 49 saves while surrendering only four leads. He paced the National League with 62 games finished. Helsley punched out nearly 30% of opposing hitters against a tolerable 8.6% walk rate. Going back to the start of the ’22 season, he carries a 1.83 ERA with a huge 34.6% strikeout percentage through 167 2/3 innings.

That level of production behind a triple-digit fastball and wipeout slider would’ve made Helsley arguably the best reliever on the trade market. (One can debate whether he’s better than Milwaukee closer Devin Williams, who could be dealt before his final season of team control.) MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Helsley for a $6.9MM salary during his final trip through the arbitration process. That’s well below market price for a lockdown closer.

Carrying Helsley into next season would be a frankly puzzling decision. The Cardinals surely feel they’d get a ton of interest at next summer’s deadline, though there’s always the possibility of an early-season injury tanking his trade value. An offseason trade would also keep open the chance for an acquiring team to recoup draft compensation if Helsley walks in free agency. Teams can only make a qualifying offer to players they’ve had on the roster for the whole season. A team that acquires Helsley before Opening Day could make him a QO next winter; one that lands him at the deadline could not.

Qualifying offers for relievers are rare but not unheard of. Raisel Iglesias and Josh Hader declined QOs before their trips to free agency. Edwin Díaz would’ve received a QO had he not re-signed just before hitting the market. A typical Helsley season could put him in that tier. There’s enough volatility with relievers that he certainly wouldn’t be a lock for the QO, but that possibility could hold some value to other teams now and would not exist over the summer.

The Cardinals themselves could make Helsley a qualifying offer if they don’t trade him at all. Speculation about a full teardown has quieted in recent weeks. Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray, both of whom have no-trade clauses, are unlikely to be dealt after expressing their preference to stick around. The Cards are expected to entertain trade possibilities on Nolan Arenado. Beyond that, they could run things back with most of last year’s roster. Paul Goldschmidt, Kyle Gibson, Andrew Kittredge and Lance Lynn were their free agents of note.

Perhaps the Cardinals feel they can hang in the NL Central mix if they get a few internal improvements. There’s still a decent amount of talent on a roster that finished above .500 at 83-79 this year. Winning the division would be a long shot unless they’re active in free agency, but they seem to be willing to at least see how things play out in the season’s first couple months.

Bill Melton Passes Away

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Former American League home run king Bill Melton has passed away at 79. The White Sox announced the news on Thursday afternoon.

Melton, a righty hitter, signed with the Sox as an 18-year-old. The 6’2″, 200-pound slugger hit his way to the big leagues by the end of the 1968 season. He opened the following year as Chicago’s third baseman. It was the first of seven consecutive Opening Day starts for Melton, who developed into a potent power bat.

After hitting 23 home runs during his first full season, Melton posted consecutive 33-homer showings in 1970 and ’71. That was enough to lead the AL in the latter season. Only seven hitters combined for more longballs over that two-year stretch: Henry Aaron, Willie Stargell, Lee May, Johnny Bench, Frank Howard, Billy Williams and Harmon Killebrew. Those players were all multi-time All-Stars; all but May and Howard made the Hall of Fame.

Melton turned in a .266/.346/.490 slash line and drove in 182 runs over those two seasons. The career-best showing in ’71 earned him an All-Star nod and a 13th-place finish in MVP voting. Injury limited him to 57 games the following year, but he managed two more 20-homer seasons thereafter. Melton remained a capable hitter through the end of the 1975 season. The Sox traded him to the Angels at that point. He spent one season in California and played one year for the Indians before retiring.

Melton played parts of 10 seasons in the majors. He recorded just over 1000 hits, including 160 homers. Melton hit .253/.337/.419 across more than 4500 trips to the plate. He scored 496 runs and drove in 591. “Beltin’ Bill” held the Sox’s record for career home runs at the time of his retirement. He still ranks ninth in franchise history in that regard. Melton returned to the organization as a television analyst between 1998 and 2020.

“Bill Melton enjoyed two tremendous careers with the White Sox,” the team’s owner Jerry Reinsdorf said in a statement. “His first came as a celebrated home run king for White Sox teams in the early 1970s, where ’Beltin Bill’ brought power to a franchise that played its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Bill’s second career came as a well-liked and respected pre- and postgame television analyst, where on a nightly basis Sox fans saw his passion for the team, win or lose. Bill was a friend to many at the White Sox and around baseball, and his booming voice will be missed.” MLBTR joins others around the game in sending our condolences to his family, friends, loved ones and former teammates.

Red Sox Hoping For Additional Meeting With Soto

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By this time next week, there’s a good chance Juan Soto will have picked his destination. As the star outfielder weighs multiple offers at or above $600MM, the top of the market waits.

At least one team is hoping for another sit-down with Soto and agent Scott Boras. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that Red Sox’s brass has expressed interest in another meeting at which Soto’s camp would name the price necessary to get a deal done. That’s an effort to avoid being unknowingly outbid at the end.

It seems the Sox are worried about the Mets in particular. Speier writes that Sox’s brass has heard rumors that Mets’ owner Steve Cohen has promised Boras that he’d beat the best offer made by any other team by $50MM. To be clear, Speier is not reporting on the veracity of that rumor itself. Speier is neither confirming nor denying that Cohen made such offer. The Globe’s report only mentions that the Sox are concerned enough that the rumor might be true that they’re hopeful of getting Soto and Boras to name a specific price.

It’s not clear if Boras and Soto have any interest in doing so. There’s value for Soto in playing teams’ uncertainties against each other. Relaying the specifics of every offer to each team in the race would eventually result in a highest bidder, but it’d also limit the possibility that one club goes well beyond whatever is on the table from the others.

There have seemingly been five legitimate suitors for Soto: the Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers. Various reports have cast the Dodgers as a long shot. The general view is that Los Angeles entered the mix mostly to gauge whether Soto’s market might not materialize quite the way he’d envisioned. With multiple teams putting $600MM+ offers out there, that hasn’t been the case. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand wrote last night that the Dodgers were unlikely to land him.

Speier confirms that the Red Sox recently upped their offer to $600MM. The Athletic reported on Tuesday that every team that still had a chance at Soto had hit or topped that mark. (That’s not necessarily a declaration that all five teams mentioned above had offered $600MM+, as it’s possible he has privately narrowed the field to exclude one or more of them.) Most observers still expect it to come down to one of the New York franchises, though the Sox and Jays have seemingly made full-fledged pushes to get themselves in the conversation.

One big spender that made little effort on Soto: the Phillies. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports that Philadelphia brass never met with his camp. While the Phils haven’t shied away from big-ticket free agent pursuits, it seems they never believed they had a realistic chance to land Soto. Philadelphia owner John Middleton said a month ago that he felt they’d merely be used to drive up the bidding for Soto to sign with one of the New York teams (link via Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer). Whether or not that would’ve been the case, Gelb writes that the Phillies felt it best to prioritize other avenues they found more realistic.

Maikel Garcia Undergoes Surgery To Remove Bone Spur From Elbow

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Royals infielder Maikel Garcia underwent surgery to remove a bone spur from his right elbow, tweets Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase. Kansas City hasn’t announced whether the injury is expected to impact his readiness for Spring Training.

Garcia had been set to play winter ball in his native Venezuela. He revealed in an X post over the weekend that he was instead headed back to Kansas City for x-rays. It’s unclear when he suffered the injury, as he didn’t spend any time on the IL this year.

The 24-year-old appeared in 157 regular season games and all six postseason contests. Matt Quatraro penciled him in at third base and atop the batting order on most nights. The Jonathan India acquisition means Garcia will no longer be slated for leadoff work. Depending on how the Royals intend to use India and incumbent second baseman Michael Massey, Garcia still projects as the starting third baseman.

Garcia didn’t make much of an offensive impact. He hit .231/.281/.332 with seven homers across 626 plate appearances. While he’s best suited in the bottom third of a lineup, he has a strong secondary profile. Garcia stole 37 bases in 39 attempts and graded as one of the league’s best overall baserunners. He’s also a quality defender. Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved each felt he was three runs better than average in a little more than 1000 innings at third base.

Anne Rogers of MLB.com wrote a few weeks ago that the Royals had gotten a few calls about Garcia’s availability. He came up as a shortstop prospect and only moved to third base in deference to Bobby Witt Jr. Kansas City certainly isn’t moving him back to shortstop barring an injury to Witt, but a team like the Braves or Giants could view him as an upgrade at the position. There’s nothing to suggest the Royals were seriously inclined to move Garcia, whom they control for five more seasons. The elbow surgery, even if it’s a minor procedure, makes a deal less likely.

Matt Chapman Open To Temporary Shortstop Move If Giants Sign Ha-Seong Kim

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The Giants are in the market for a shortstop. President of baseball operations Buster Posey acknowledged as much at the start of the offseason. San Francisco has been tied to Willy Adames and Ha-Seong Kim in recent weeks.

While Adames could play shortstop on Opening Day, that’s not the case with Kim. He underwent surgery to repair a labrum injury in his throwing shoulder. There’s still not a ton of clarity on when he’s expected back in game action. Kim’s agent Scott Boras has unsurprisingly taken an optimistic stance on the infielder’s recovery. Boras said at last month’s GM Meetings that Kim could be ready early in the season — potentially before the end of April. Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has previously suggested the rehab could carry into “May, June, July,” a much more nebulous timeline.

Whichever team signs Kim will need a stopgap shortstop for at least a few weeks, potentially months. For the Giants, that could be Matt Chapman. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that the star third baseman told team officials he’d be willing to play shortstop early in the year while Kim recovers. According to Rosenthal, that’s one of various possibilities the team is considering.

That’d be a creative solution. It’s not an outlandish one. Chapman is one of the sport’s best defensive third basemen. He’s a five-time Gold Glove winner. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have graded him as a strong defender in every season of his career. Chapman tied Milwaukee’s Joey Ortiz for the league lead among third basemen in Outs Above Average this year. He’s fifth at the position by that metric across the past three seasons.

Chapman, who has 10 career innings at shortstop, has plenty of arm strength. He certainly has the hands for the position. The only question is whether he’d have enough lateral quickness to be a plus in the middle of the diamond, but he could probably at least play a competent shortstop for a month or two.

Sliding Chapman to shortstop would open a short-term hole at third base. Tyler Fitzgerald, Marco Luciano, Brett Wisely, Casey Schmitt and David Villar are among the options for work there. Aside from Villar, everyone from that group has some shortstop experience as well. None seems like a long-term answer. Wisely was primarily a second baseman in the minors, while Schmitt has spent most of his career at third base. Luciano has come up as a shortstop but was a disaster defensively in a limited MLB look. His long-term future is probably in the corner outfield.

Fitzgerald got the majority of the shortstop reps late in the season. He’d probably start there if the Giants came up empty in their pursuit. While he hit well enough to earn everyday playing time, the Giants seem to prefer him elsewhere. Posey suggested last month that Fitzgerald could be a second baseman. He also implied they were hopeful they could avoid bouncing him around the diamond as much next season.

“Tyler Fitzgerald did a great job at short last year. I think he has value and in multiple spots on the field,” Posey said at the GM Meetings (link via Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle). “I do think it’s hard to play multiple spots at the same time during the season. Whether he’d be better suited to play second base long-term is a discussion we’re having.“

Freddie Freeman Undergoes Ankle Surgery

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The Dodgers announced today that first baseman Freddie Freeman underwent surgery on his right ankle “consisting of debridement and the removal of loose bodies.” They added that Freeman is “expected to be able to participate in baseball activities during Spring Training” though it’s unclear how impacted his offseason will be.

Freeman’s ankle injury was a key storyline over the past few months. He suffered a sprain in late September in one of the final regular season games of the 2024 campaign, which made Freeman’s status a frequent talking point throughout the postseason.

He continued to hang onto a roster spot with the club as they advanced from round to round, but was clearly not playing 100%. With Shohei Ohtani in the designated hitter slot, Freeman even had to play the field on many occasions while obviously playing through pain. During the postseason, he revealed that he was dealing with a bone bruise in addition to the sprain and would have missed four to six weeks if the issue had cropped up during the regular season. As if that wasn’t enough, Jeff Passan of ESPN later reported that Freeman suffered broken costal cartilage in his sixth rib just as the postseason was beginning, which would normally require a monthslong absence.

Despite those issues, Freeman went to have a postseason for the ages. He wasn’t great in the NLDS nor the NLCS but went complete supernova in the World Series. He hit a walkoff grand slam, the first in World Series history, to lift the Dodgers in game one. He then went on to hit a home run in the next three games as well. He set a World Series record with 12 runs batted in and slashed .300/.364/1.000, helping the Dodgers win the title and earning himself World Series MVP honors in the process.

Unsurprisingly, the attention has now shifted to getting him healthy for 2025 and it has been determined that surgery was necessary. It seems he will have enough time to be healthy for next year, though it wouldn’t be disastrous for the Dodgers if he hit some snags and ended up needing to miss a bit of time at the start of the 2025 season. Third baseman Max Muncy is capable of playing first base, while multi-positional players like Miguel Rojas or Chris Taylor could cover the hot corner.

Pirates Re-Sign Isaac Mattson To Minor League Deal

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The Pirates have signed right-hander Isaac Mattson to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com and relayed by the player himself on his Instagram page. He has been assigned to Triple-A Indianapolis for now but will presumably receive an invite to big league spring training.

Mattson, 29, signed a minor league deal with the Bucs for the 2024 season as well. He was selected to the roster in September and was able to throw 5 1/3 innings over three appearances, allowing three earned runs. He also got into four games with the Orioles in 2021, giving him a 5.59 ERA in seven major league games at this point in his career. He was outrighted off the roster at the start of the offseason.

That’s obviously not much of a sample size to make conclusions from, but the Bucs just got an up-close look at Mattson in Triple-A for most of the 2024 season. He tossed 60 innings over 29 appearances at that level with a 3.15 ERA. His 12.9% walk rate there was on the high side but his 29.8% strikeout rate was quite strong. That’s generally been the case for him at the upper levels of the minors. He has thrown 138 1/3 minor league innings over the past four years with a 4.10 ERA, 27.9% strikeout rate and 14.5% walk rate.

There’s no harm in a minor league deal, so the Bucs will bring him back in a non-roster capacity. If he can take a step forward in terms of control, that would obviously improve his utility. If he earns his way back onto the roster, he is still has two option years and has very little service time, meaning he can potentially be cheaply retained in a depth role for quite some time.

Tigers Re-Sign Wilmer Flores, Eddys Leonard To Minor League Deals

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The Tigers have re-signed right-hander Wilmer Flores and infielder/outfielder Eddys Leonard to minor league deals, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Flores will make $1MM if he is in the majors while Leonard would get the $760K league minimum.

Neither player has any major league experience but both were on the Tigers’ 40-man roster until recently. Both of them suffered through injury-marred seasons this year before being non-tendered by the Tigers last month. That sent both to free agency without being exposed to waivers but each has now returned in a non-roster capacity.

Flores, not to be confused with his older brother of the same name, is a right-handed pitcher who turns 24 in February. He posted some strong numbers as a starting pitcher as he climbed the minor league ladder and got added to the 40-man roster a year ago to prevent him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. That was despite the fact that he struggled late in the 2023 season as his velocity dipped.

He was moved into a primary relief role in 2024 but didn’t take to it immediately. As noted by Petzold, he missed over three months due to a shoulder injury and the numbers weren’t pretty when he was on the mound. He tossed 25 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level, allowing 8.53 earned runs per nine. His 18% strikeout rate was subpar and his 18.8% walk rate disastrous.

For Leonard, he was once a Dodger prospect, getting added to that club’s roster ahead of the 2021 Rule 5 draft. He was designated for assignment in the summer of 2023 and flipped to the Tigers for cash. Per Petzold, a left oblique strain put him to the IL early in the year, followed by a right hamstring strain later on. He only got into 67 Triple-A games and hit .263/.326/.455, which amounted to a 101 wRC+. He exhausted his final option year in the process.

The Tigers weren’t willing to keep either player on the roster after they struggled in 2024, but they still like both of them enough to bring them back and see if things can get back on track in 2025. Flores gives the pitching staff some non-roster depth while Leonard does the same for most of the rest of the roster. He has experience at all three outfield spots and the three infield positions to the left of first base.

Yankees, Astros, Mariners Have Spoken To Cubs About Cody Bellinger

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Cody Bellinger has stood as one of the most recognizable but difficult-to-move names on the offseason trade market. Among the teams to reach out recently are the Yankees, Astros and Mariners, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. However, Levine adds that the Cubs aren’t looking to merely shed Bellinger’s salary, nor do they want to cover much (if any) money in a deal. That’s likely to be an issue. ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote this morning that other teams feel the Cubs will need to pay down a notable portion of Bellinger’s salary (or, presumably, take back another contract) if they intend to get much in the way of a return.

The Cubs have been looking to upgrade various spots on the roster but have a tough road to do so, in part due to no-trade clauses for Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki. Other positions, like first base (Michael Busch) and center field (Pete Crow-Armstrong) are already manned by promising young players. Third baseman Isaac Paredes was only just acquired at the deadline. Second baseman Nico Hoerner makes some sense as an option to free up some cash and a spot in the lineup for a more impactful bat, but he’s coming off flexor surgery.

That’s led the Cubs to at least gauge interest in Bellinger, who passed on the opportunity to opt out of the remaining two years and $52.5MM on his contract at the beginning of the offseason. Bellinger had a fine year overall, hitting .266/.325/.426 with 18 homers and a tiny 15.6% strikeout rate (his second straight season with that exact strikeout rate). But while those numbers were solid, they pale in comparison to his 2023 showing. He also posted lesser defensive grades both in the outfield and at first bae in 2024.

[Related: Looking for a Match in a Cody Bellinger Trade]

The Yankees have been laying some groundwork in the event that Juan Soto ultimately signs elsewhere, showing recent interest in top-tier free agents like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Willy Adames. That said, there’d pretty clearly be room for both Bellinger and Soto on the same roster. Bellinger could slot in at first base in the Bronx, offering another left-handed bat with good contact skills — a contrast to some of the strikeout-prone righties elsewhere in the lineup. He’d also be good insurance in the outfield, given the injury histories of both Aaron Judge and top prospect Jasson Dominguez. Bellinger could also serve as a safety net in the event that Dominguez looks overmatched early on.

In Houston, the Astros have a clear need at first base after their three-year, $58.5MM deal with Jose Abreu went sideways almost immediately. After a poor first year in 2023, Abreu started the 2024 season so poorly that he consented to being optioned to the minors. That Triple-A stint didn’t help, and Abreu was released less than halfway through that three-year deal. The ’Stros subsequently gave most of the playing time at first base to Jon Singleton, who provided light offense and subpar defense the rest of the way.

For the Mariners, first base has emerged as a clear need. They have at least one intriguing in-house option in prospect Tyler Locklear, but the M’s have been linked heavily to veterans Carlos Santana and Justin Turner as they search for a veteran bat at first base (and likely another at the hot corner). Bellinger’s contact skills would help Seattle cut down on the team’s longstanding strikeout issues as well.

The bigger issue with regard to Bellinger isn’t so much his overall ability, but rather the magnitude of his contract. He’s owed $52.5MM over the next two season — a guarantee that’s paid out in heavily frontloaded fashion. He’s taking home a $27.5MM salary in 2025 and is owed a $5MM buyout on a $25MM player option for the 2026 season if he opts out of the contract’s final season next winter. For an acquiring team, Bellinger would add $26.25MM to the luxury tax ledger and would cost at least $32.5MM in terms of actual, present-day salary.

For the 2023 version of Bellinger — .307/.356/.525 (136 wRC+), 26 home runs — teams would happily pay that price. Of course, if Bellinger had produced at that same level in 2024, he’d surely have taken the first opt-out opportunity in his contract at the beginning of this offseason. That he chose to forgo his opt-out clause is indicative of the fact that he and agent Scott Boras don’t believe there’s a sizable nine-figure contract waiting for him.

With regard to the Yankees, that luxury number could be problematic. Whether they sign Soto or pursue multiple free agents from the Fried/Burnes/Adames bucket after missing out on him, they’ll surely be a luxury tax payor in at least the third tier of penalty — if not the fourth. Since they’re looking at paying the tax in three straight seasons, that means they’ll either be staring down a 95% tax or 110% tax rate. Bellinger would cost them somewhere between $52-56MM in combined salary and taxes — plus that potential $5MM buyout on the 2026 option. Even for a deep-pocketed club like the Yankees, that’s a staggering price to pay, particularly coming off a good-not-great season for Bellinger.

The Astros, too, have some luxury concerns. RosterResource estimates that they’re just about $7MM shy of the first-tier threshold. They’ve looked into trading Ryan Pressly, but even if Houston were able to unload his full $14MM salary, Bellinger would still thrust them back into luxury territory. The 2024 season was the first in which owner Jim Crane authorized paying the tax. Adding Bellinger would very likely require doing so a second time. Speculatively speaking, a swap of Pressly and Bellinger could make sense for both parties involved, though Pressly can veto any potential deal as a player with 10-and-5 rights.

Luxury considerations don’t apply to the Mariners, but the actual bottom-line cash owed to Bellinger will be an obstacle. Seattle is looking to add two infielders — one at each corner — and ownership doesn’t seem to have an appetite for raising payroll too far beyond last year’s roughly $145MM level. The Mariners already project for a number in a similar range. If they could find a taker for one Mitch Haniger or Mitch Garver, perhaps Bellinger would become more realistic. For now, it seems likely that ever-active president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto is simply doing due diligence, perhaps hoping the Cubs will pay down some of the contract (if not take someone like Garver back as part of the return).

Astros Interested In Christian Walker

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It’s been well established that re-signing Alex Bregman is the top priority for the Astros but he remains a free agent. The club has to consider backup plans for the event Bregman gets away and it’s been reported that one of their contingencies is Jorge Polanco. Today, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports that they could instead shift their focus to first base and have discussed Christian Walker.

The Astros and Bregman have been dancing around each other for quite some time without finding common ground. Dana Brown was hired as general manager in January of 2023 and almost immediately talked about signing core players to extensions. They did get new deals done with Jose Altuve and Cristian Javier but not with Bregman or Kyle Tucker. Brown and owner Jim Crane have continued to talk about their desire to re-sign Bregman in the almost two years since then but without getting pen to paper.

The problem seems to be the organization’s long-standing aversion to big deals. Altuve’s $151MM extension in 2018 is still the largest guarantee they’ve ever given out on any contract and the six years on the Yordan Alvarez extension is their longest pact. They’ve let players like Gerrit Cole, George Springer and Carlos Correa go get their big paydays elsewhere as opposed to re-signing them.

On top of that, there’s the short-term payroll question. They payed the competitive balance tax in 2024, technically for the first time. They did go over the line in 2020 but the penalties were put on pause for the COVID-shortened season. RosterResource projects their CBT number at $234MM for next year, just barely below the $241MM base threshold.

Back in October, Brown spoke of the finances being a little tight and said “We may have to get a little bit creative” about spending. Crane struck a slightly more optimistic tone about the money in November, saying that the club has “the wherewithal to do it if we need to do it” but also cautioned that they didn’t want to go crazy.

McTaggart says the Astros have offered Bregman a six-year deal worth $156MM, which aligns with previous reports. That would eclipse their previous record but just barely and it’s possible Bregman can top that elsewhere. MLBTR predicted he could land a guarantee of $182MM and he is reportedly looking for something in the range of $200MM. Bregman has reported interest from clubs like the Blue Jays, Phillies and Red Sox, with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently taking a detailed look at his market in a post for MLBTR subscribers.

With a non-zero chance of Bregman ending up leaving Houston, the club naturally needs to at least ponder alternate realities, with Walker one such thing they seem to have considered. It’s a logical consideration given that first base is a weak spot for the club. José Abreu crashed and burned as an Astro, getting released midway through the 2024 season. Jon Singleton picked up most of his playing time and was adequate but not outstanding. He slashed .234/.321/.386 last year for a wRC+ of 105 but with subpar defense, leading to an essentially replacement level season.

Walker is coming off a remarkably consistent three-year run with the Diamondbacks. He got into 160 games in 2022 and hit 36 home runs, then followed it up with 33 home runs in 157 games the following year. In 2024, he was on roughly the same pace but spent a small amount of time on the injured list, limited to 26 homers in 130 games. He finished each season with a wRC+ in the 119-122 range, producing a combined .250/.332/.481 batting line in those three seasons.

He’s also considered a strong defender at first base, with career tallies of 43 Defensive Runs Saved and 57 Outs Above Average. FanGraphs gave him 3.9 wins above replacement in 2022 and 2023. He would have been back in that range in 2024 if not for the aforementioned injury absence, ending up at 3.0 fWAR.

But since Walker turns 34 in March, his contract will be limited. MLBTR predicted him for a three-year deal with a $60MM guarantee, though it’s also possible he will be limited to a two-year pact, depending on how his market develops.

That price point would perhaps be more attractive to the Astros than the kind of deal Bregman will eventually sign, though there would also be drawbacks. Walker rejected a qualifying offer from the Diamondbacks, meaning he is tied to the associated penalties. Since the Astros just paid the CBT in 2024, they would have to surrender their second- and fifth-best picks in the upcoming draft as well as $1MM of international bonus pool space. Also, after just getting burned by signing Abreu, they may not want to sign another mid-3os first baseman to a notable deal, especially when they’re still paying Abreu for another year.

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