Nats Have Explored Extension For Harper, But No Talks Now
GM Mike Rizzo says the Nationals have considered an extension for Bryce Harper, but there have been no formal talks, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. Harper’s agent, Scott Boras, says he and the Nationals (with whom he has a strong relationship) have had informal discussions about the possibility of a Harper extension.
“My attitude is that you certainly want to know what they have to say,” Boras says. “Then, you talk about what they want to do. Historically, these type of players, it’s very difficult because often there are not player comparables that drive this contract.”
It would, of course, be a monumental development if the Nationals were to extend Harper at this stage. He is only three years from becoming a free agent at the tender age of 26, and if he stays healthy and continues to play at anything close to the elite level at which he performed last year, his next contract will likely become the largest the sport has ever seen.
When a reporter recently mentioned to Harper the possibility he might eventually receive a $400MM contract, Harper said, “Don’t sell me short,” implying that he might be able to get even more. It was, perhaps, a brash response, but it likely was not an inaccurate one. Boras, for his part, seems to be thinking of Harper’s next deal in much broader terms than are typically discussed for individual contracts.
“Player comparables are certainly evidence of the past market. But the true evidence of the current market, economic value of franchises, and the revenues of this game are going to be different three years from now,” he says. “It’s not the amount, but whether it’s good business or not. … There may be incentives that excite [the Nationals]. You look at A-Rod when he signed with the Texas Rangers, and what it did for the club’s TV deal. When he was traded to the Yankees, you saw what it did for the YES Network.”
It’s well known that Boras likes his clients to test the waters of free agency, and given the likelihood that Harper could break records, it seems unlikely that the Nationals will make an offer significant enough to prevent him from hitting the market. There have been previous indications that the Nats aren’t even making a Harper extension a top priority, at least not right now. Both sides, however, appear to be leaving the door open a bit, and if formal discussions do eventually take place, they could go to some very interesting places, since it’s hard to know what a Harper deal ought to look like, either in terms of dollars or duration.
West Notes: Hinch, Wilson, Ethier
The differences between manager A.J. Hinch’s tenures with the Diamondbacks and Astros are a microcosm of changes within baseball as a whole, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. In 2009, Hinch’s hiring in Arizona was received negatively within the injury, since Hinch had been a former player but had little further experience. Now, though, such hires are common — think of Mike Matheny of the Cardinals or Brad Ausmus of the Tigers, for example. After being fired, Hinch took a job in the Padres’ front office before Houston hired him. The path from the front office to managing is becoming increasingly common, as organizations increasingly appreciate the benefits of having a front office and a field staff that communicate well with one another.
Hinch’s time with Arizona didn’t go well, and he was fired after barely over a year. Rosenthal quotes not only Hinch but some of his former players suggesting that Hinch’s introduction to big-league managing didn’t always go smoothly. But given the way the managerial position has changed since then, perhaps Hinch and the team were, in some ways, ahead of the curve. “We were onto something then,” says Hinch of his time with the Diamondbacks. “It wasn’t accepted as freely as it is now. … My career didn’t really warrant acceptance in that regard. Some of these other guys had better playing careers. It became a touch easier for each guy progressively to take over a team. But if it wouldn’t have been for that first time, I don’t think I would have gotten this second chance.” Here’s more from the West divisions.
- Angels GM Billy Eppler says that the team is happy with what they’ve learned from an MRI starting pitcher C.J. Wilson underwent on Monday, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register writes. Wilson merely has tendinitis in his throwing shoulder. He had reported discomfort in the shoulder on Saturday.
- The Dodgers are not concerned about Andre Ethier earning 10-and-5 rights in April, Bill Plunkett of the Register writes (Twitter links). “When a guy is an important and productive part of your team, you don’t spend your time worrying about whether you can trade him,” says GM Farhan Zaidi. The Dodgers have two years and $38MM left on Ethier’s current five-year deal, including a $2.5MM buyout on a 2018 option that can become guaranteed if he receives regular playing time. He hit .294/.366/.486 in a bounce-back season last year.
West Notes: Rollins, Giants, Lucroy, Astros, Angels
The Giants had interest in Jimmy Rollins before the veteran infielder ultimately agreed to a minor league deal with the White Sox, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. Rosenthal adds that the Giants would have used Rollins as a super utility player, taking advantage of his ability to switch-hit. Via Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area (on Twitter), Giants GM Bobby Evans has confirmed the Giants were quite interested in Rollins, although they couldn’t promise the kind of playing time he would be able to get in Chicago (which has a considerably less stable shortstop situation). Here’s more from the West divisions.
- In other news about player acquisitions that never came to be, Rosenthal tweets that the Astros tried to acquire Jonathan Lucroy from the Brewers last month but were not able to come to terms. Jason Castro is eligible for free agency following the 2016 and Lucroy is controllable for an additional year (and for a very modest $5.25MM or a $250K buyout), so perhaps it’s no surprise that David Stearns’ former employers called him about a possible trade.
- The Angels would prefer to have more lefty relief help, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register writes. They’re without a lefty specialist, and the only lefty who currently figures to be in their bullpen is Jose Alvarez. The team does have additional lefty bullpen candidates in Lucas Luetge and Rob Rasmussen. “To have a lefty specialist available is a tool you’d like you to have in bullpen, but we’ll see where we are,” says manager Mike Scioscia. Fletcher doesn’t say whether the Angels actually plan to pursue more lefties, but even if they do, perhaps the issue isn’t so pressing. Unsurprisingly, the free agent market is a bit thin, and Scioscia and the Angels have gotten very good results with heavily right-handed bullpens in the past, such as their 2003 and 2004 ‘pens, which were elite very limited contributions from left-handers.
Live Tommy John Research Chat With Bradley Woodrum
Click here to join tonight’s chat with Bradley Woodrum to discuss his recent findings on Tommy John Surgery.
Pirates Notes: McCutchen, Stewart, Glasnow
Andrew McCutchen reiterates that he’s interested in sticking with the Pirates, ESPN’s Jayson Stark reports. “[E]veryone knows I want to be here,” McCutchen says. “So that’s nothing new to anyone.” McCutchen has repeatedly maintained his interest in staying in Pittsburgh beyond the expiration of his contract following the 2018 season (or the 2017 season, in the unlikely event that the Bucs don’t exercise his 2018 option), and he’s also said he doesn’t define himself in terms of how much money he makes. According to Stark, though, McCutchen was cautious when asked whether he would take a hometown discount to stay with the Bucs. “I still stick with the [idea that] money doesn’t define me because it doesn’t,” he says. “But it’s not altered like that in this game. No one plays for free. People rarely ever work for free. But you know, whenever that time comes, that time comes. But I’m trying not to think about it too much.” The question, from the Pirates’ perspective, is whether there’s a way to extend McCutchen that makes sense within their budget. They already control him through his age-31 season, and they might not want to pay what the market would consider a fair salary for a player of McCutchen’s talent — surely over $20MM a year — for what could turn out to be decline years in his thirties. Here’s more on the Bucs.
- Backup catcher Chris Stewart is happy to have received a multi-year deal this winter, MLB.com’s Adam Berry writes. Stewart’s deal was modest — he’ll get just $2.75MM total for 2016 and 2017, along with a $250K buyout on a cheap option in 2018. But it gives him more of a sense of stability than he’s previously had in his career. “Knowing that I’ll be here for more than a year — hopefully three or more, that’s the goal — that’s something I’m not used to,” he says. Stewart is slated to back up Francisco Cervelli in 2016, and then could back up Elias Diaz, a prospect with a good defensive reputation, in 2017 if Cervelli isn’t extended.
- Top pitching prospect Tyler Glasnow appears likely to make an impact sometime in the coming season, but the Pirates also considered promoting him during the 2015 campaign, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. “We had legitimate discussions about (calling up) Tyler last year,” says Pirates GM Neal Huntington. “Ultimately, we felt it was in his and our best interest to continue the development and command of the fastball, the consistency of his breaking ball, the ability to throw it for a strike and for a chase, and to develop the changeup (in Triple-A).” He now seems likely to have to wait to be promoted until June, after the passing of the Super Two threshold. That’s what the Bucs did with Gerrit Cole three years ago, and Cole says it had no ill effects on him. “It’s actually better; you kind of light a fire under somebody,” Cole says “And he gets an opportunity to fine-tune his routine.”
Cubs Sign Manny Parra To Minor League Deal
6:36pm: Parra will receive $520K plus a potential $1.28M in bonuses if he makes the Majors, Jon Heyman tweets.
9:08am: The Cubs announced that they’ve signed left-handed reliever Manny Parra to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training (Twitter link via the Chicago Tribune’s Mark Gonzales). Parra is represented by CAA.
Last year, the 33-year-old Parra logged a 3.90 ERA with 6.4 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and a 45.9 percent ground-ball rate in 32 1/3 innings for the division-rival Reds. That marked his third straight season with Cincinnati after five years with the Brewers, so by signing with the Cubs, he’ll continue on in the only division he’s known (at least for the next few weeks).
Milwaukee tried Parra out as a starting pitcher for much of his time in the organization, but he’s struggled to a 5.44 ERA out of the rotation in his career (74 starts) as compared to a 4.01 ERA coming out of the bullpen. Right-handed batters have given Parra plenty of trouble in his big league career, hitting him at a .290/.370/.440 clip, whereas lefties have posted a .254/.330/.391 batting line. Those career marks against lefties are somewhat misleading, however, as Parra has excelled against southpaws since being removed from the rotation. Over the course of his three years in Cincinnati, Parra faced 249 left-handed batters and held them to a paltry .222/.285/.333 slash.
The Cubs already have a number of left-handed relief options in camp, including Clayton Richard, Travis Wood and Rex Brothers — all of whom are on the 40-man roster. Beyond that trio, lefties Jack Leathersich and Edgar Olmos are in camp as non-roster invitees. Suffice it to say, Parra faces significant competition and perhaps an uphill battle as he seeks to make the roster.
MLBTR Mailbag: QOs, Snell, A’s, Pirates, Simmons, Jackson
Spring Training is here, but with a few high-profile players still available via free agency and rosters far from settled, the stove is still hot here at MLBTR. Here’s today’s mailbag.
Why hasn’t anyone organized a sign and trade for one of the qualifying offer players? The original team could sign them and trade them for a prospect, saving the acquiring team a draft pick and the former team a prospect. I know they can’t be traded without the player’s consent, but the player would obviously have negotiated the contract with the new team. Or even a team like the Braves signing a QO player (forfeiting their second-rounder) and getting a prospect back. — James M.
It’s too blatantly a means of circumventing the qualifying offer process as stipulated within the Collective Bargaining Agreement. I realize that it’s possible that the Mets will end up trading Alejandro De Aza this spring, but it’s pretty clear to see that New York didn’t think it had a real chance of re-signing Cespedes when De Aza was signed. That they were able to land him a month later after Cespedes’ market didn’t develop the way that his camp hoped, De Aza was relegated to a fifth outfielder, more or less. That’s sub-optimal for team and player, and I think the Commissioner’s Office would be able to see that in approving the trade. Something like the Braves signing Ian Desmond and trading him 24 hours later wouldn’t get that benefit of the doubt.
What are the thoughts on the Blake Snell extension rumors? He hasn’t even made an MLB start. — Zachary H.
The Rays have every incentive to lock Snell up as early as possible if they believe that he’s on a path to becoming a mid-rotation starter or better. Snell is one of the game’s 20 or so best prospects, and by going year to year through the arbitration process with the Rays, he could earn something in the vicinity of $20-25MM over the life of the six years (well, seven, realistically, as the Rays will almost assuredly keep him in the minors for three weeks at the beginning of the season to extend control by one year, barring an extension) that he’s guaranteed to be with the team. There’s huge financial incentive to take a slight risk — previous contracts of this ilk have cost $10-15MM total — in order to lock in most or all of a player’s arbitration years well in advance in exchange for discounted club options on his free-agent seasons. Not only does it potentially give them an above-average starter at a fraction of his market cost (assuming the options come with a relatively modest salary), it gives Tampa Bay a huge trade chip down the line if the team sees fit. If the Rays are confident in their projections of Snell, there’s little reason not to try for some kind of long-term deal. Realistically, this probably goes on with top prospects quite a bit more than we hear about.
From Snell’s perspective, it’s a huge risk; if he has any degree of success, that type of contract will be among the most team-friendly in the game. On the other hand, if he has an injury (as lefty Cory Luebke did when he twice had Tommy John surgery after signing a four-year, $12MM deal after one full season in the Majors) or simply struggles in his initial Major League trials (a la Jon Singleton, who also signed long-term prior to his MLB debut), then he comes out quite a bit ahead of where he’d have otherwise been. It’s always a balance of the human factors that drive the player to seek his first fortune and the business reasons for betting on himself.
Now that the A’s have their #4 power hitter in Khris Davis, will they finally be viewed as legit team that can make the playoffs? — Ross K.
With all due respect to Davis and the A’s, adding another 25- to 30-homer bat doesn’t really change a huge amount for me in terms of their projections. I’m still concerned with Oakland’s patchwork options at the infield corners and Billy Butler at DH. And, in the rotation, there’s virtually no certainty beyond Sonny Gray. I’m a fan of Jesse Hahn‘s ability, but he’s shown clear durability issues, and beyond him the A’s will rely on Kendall Graveman, Chris Bassitt, Rich Hill, Aaron Brooks and still-injured starters Jarrod Parker and Henderson Alvarez to round out the rotation. Sean Manaea could eventually help in 2016, but they have a lot that needs to go right. I think the AL is deep enough and talented enough (Oakland included) that any of the 15 teams could be a playoff team if you squint, but adding Davis — a left-field only bat with a shaky glove that’s being asked to cover a huge, expansive space — doesn’t put them over the top in any sort of way for me.
Were the Pirates right to keep closer Mark Melancon, or should they have dealt him to save money and to fill a starting pitching need? — Nick C.
If Pittsburgh could’ve flipped Melancon for a starting pitcher as they did with the comparably priced Neil Walker, that would have been my preferred route. That said, there’s no direct evidence such a possibility was available to the Pirates, and it’s hard to know what Melancon’s market might have been. Two other top closers in Craig Kimbrel and Ken Giles returned impressive trade packages this winter, but Melancon’s market might have been complicated somewhat by the presence of Kimbrel, Giles, Aroldis Chapman and others potentially available. And as MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth has noted elsewhere, the current mini-trend of building super-bullpens (as Boston has done with Kimbrel, Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa and Carson Smith and the the Yankees have done with Chapman, Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances) seems based in large part on acquiring pitchers who rack up strikeouts. That’s not Melancon — as great as he was last season, his strikeout rate fell to 7.3 K/9, and his average fastball velocity dipped as well, although he remained excellent at inducing ground balls and limiting walks. I’m sure there are 29 other teams that would love to have Melancon in their bullpen, but it’s unclear how many might have been willing to pay the kind of price the Pirates would have wanted.
Are we undervaluing the addition of Andrelton Simmons for the Angels? It’s a major acquisition that seemingly flew under the radar because the majority of the value is tied to defense. He’s likely a three- to four-win improvement at shortstop with the glove alone. Isn’t it difficult to quantify how much his defense really helps the team? — Jacob S.
I don’t think anyone undervalued the improvement that came with adding Simmons at the time of the deal. The buzz surrounding him has somewhat cooled now, though, due to the Angels’ still-glaring question marks at second base and in left field. Had the Halos added another legitimate infielder or added a left field bat following the acquisition of Simmons, there’d probably be quite a bit more hype surrounding the additions made by Billy Eppler and his staff this offseason. I don’t know that I agree with Simmons being a four-win improvement over Erick Aybar, but I do feel that he’s a notable upgrade, and even though they parted with Sean Newcomb to get him, the trade has significant long-term value for the Angels. All that said, the reason it’s drawing less attention now is that the Angels kicked their winter off with a bang but followed with virtually no moves of consequence. Right or wrong, that’s going to cause the move to be overshadowed.
To me the Reds make a good fit for Austin Jackson. Would a one-year deal in the range of $5MM plus an option do it? Jackson would give the Reds depth, flexibility, decent leadoff insurance, and with a good season, a trade target for a prospect. Your thoughts? — Brian F.
I don’t know that Jackson is signing for as little as $5MM — Juan Uribe just got about that much despite being eight years older — and adding the option wouldn’t be something that Jackson or agent Scott Boras would want if they do settle on a one-year deal. If it’s a one-year deal, it’ll be one signed with an eye toward retrying on next year’s weak market.
As for the Reds’ end of the equation, while there’s sense to it, they haven’t really shown the desire to add veterans on big league deals, especially not ones that will potentially take time away from younger players. The Reds still need to get Billy Hamilton regular playing time with the hope that he can develop some semblance of OBP skills, and they want to get long looks at players like Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler and, eventually, Jesse Winker. The presence of Jay Bruce will stand in the way of those players getting at-bats somewhat as it is, and adding Jackson to the mix will only add another roadblock. On paper, I agree that there’s some sense to your scenario for the Reds, but it doesn’t seem realistic in the end.
Bautista “Not Willing To Negotiate” After Naming Asking Price
Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista met with multiple reporters at the Jays’ Spring Training facility in Dunedin, Fla. today, and a potential extension was among the topics discussed. However, as MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm and Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi write, Joey Bats isn’t interested in giving the Blue Jays any form of hometown discount. Bautista, who is eligible for free agency next offseason, said that he met with the Blue Jays two weeks ago and named his asking price. Toronto president of baseball operations Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins sought to negotiate, but that isn’t in Bautista’s plans.
“I’m not willing to negotiate,” Bautista candidly explained. “I don’t think there should be any negotiation. I think I’ve proven myself.”
It’s hard to argue with the notion that Bautista has done anything short of that since signing his five-year, $65MM contract with the Blue Jays prior to the 2011 season. Since that time, Bautista has posted a .270/.393/.540 batting line with 173 home runs. Even when factoring in his hitter-friendly home park, Bautista’s bat has been 55 percent better than the league-average hitter, according to OPS+, and 54 percent better than average, per wRC+. Both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs agree that he’s been worth between 26 and 27 wins above replacement in that time frame.
That production, relative to his cost, makes it relatively easy to see why Bautista would say, “In my eyes, I’ve given this organization a five-year hometown discount already.” Of course, Bautista knew the risk he was taking in signing that deal; the possibility always existed that he’d continue the torrid pace from his 2010 breakout and turn the contract into a massive bargain, just as the Blue Jays knew there was a possibility that he’d decline and leave them holding one of Major League Baseball’s least desirable contracts.
Bautista tells reporters that he met with Shapiro and Atkins for about 15 minutes. “I didn’t want to waste any time,” Bautista explained. “If this is going to happen, I think it should be natural, organic, quick and easy, it shouldn’t be a pull and tug about a few dollars here or there. I didn’t want to waste any time, I didn’t want to waste their time or their effort, so they can start planning ahead, and if it’s not going to happen they have plenty of time to do so.”
It’s unclear what Bautista specified in terms of years or dollars, although a five-year deal certainly seems like a possibility. Chisholm, in fact, tweets that Bautista was asked whether he thinks he can play for another five years, and the slugger was “emphatic” in responding in the affirmative. Earlier this offseason, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk examined Bautista’s extension candidacy, noting that Bautista seems very likely to be able to secure at least a four-year deal at a premium rate — well north of $20MM — as a free agent next winter, assuming a typical Bautista season. I’d agree that a healthy four-year deal is a safe expectation, with a five-year deal certainly on the table should he approach last year’s production.
AL East Notes: Vazquez, Rays, O’s, Marmol, Shreve
Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez seems to be ahead of schedule in his rehab from Tommy John surgery, writes WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. Vazquez tells Bradford that he had a scare last week when he felt some discomfort in his surgically repaired right elbow, but the doctors informed him that it stemmed from muscle pain and scar tissue as opposed to any sort of notable setback in his recovery. Vazquez is already throwing to bases from behind the plate, though Bradford notes that it’s unclear if he’ll be ready for game action when games kick off on Feb. 29. Here’s some more from around the AL East…
- Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes that the Rays‘ focus on adding bats this winter will not only help the offense, but also help the pitching staff and bullpen by theoretically sparing them from so many close games. “When we’re playing in one-run games every night, it’s tough. It’s tough to piece together the innings and make sure that we keep everyone fresh,” president of baseball operations Matt Silverman said.
- There’s no reason to worry about Yovani Gallardo passing his physical with the Orioles, based on what Eduardo Encina of The Baltimore Sun hears. Encina also points out that though Gallardo turns 30 later this month, the righty has a strong track record of durability. Gallardo’s physical is said to have taken place around noon today, so the deal could potentially be finalized and formally announced by the team at some point this afternoon.
- The Orioles have been heavily connected to Dexter Fowler, though they’re also looking at other position player options, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. Pedro Alvarez, who was rumored as a Baltimore target earlier this offseason, is still being considered by the team.
- The Red Sox believe that Carlos Marmol can be a relief force again after correcting a flaw in his delivery, WEEI.com’s John Tomase writes. Marmol’s already-shaky control was worsened by a high arm slot over the last two years, as observed by Boston director of pitching analysis and development Brian Bannister. If this theory is correct and Marmol can get back on track, the Sox may have landed a big strikeout reliever at the cost of just a minor league deal.
- The Yankees‘ big three bullpen aces have drawn much of the attention this winter, though the rest of New York’s relief corps will also play an important role in the team’s success. To this end, Chasen Shreve will be a big figure for the Yankees, though his late-season fade is a concern, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. Fatigue or over-thinking may have played a role in Shreve’s late-season struggles, though Brian McCann feels that Shreve was tipping his pitches.
Brewers Claim Sean Nolin
12:58pm: Via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, general manager David Stearns said that although Nolin has been developed as a starter to this point in his career, the Brewers will look at using him out of the bullpen, perhaps in a multi-inning role (links to Twitter).
12:44pm: The Brewers announced today that they have claimed left-hander Sean Nolin off waivers from the Athletics. Nolin had been designated for assignment by Oakland last week when the club acquired Khris Davis from the Brewers, so, while he isn’t a part of the trade, he’s technically an additional piece of compensation picked up by the Brewers as a result of the trade. (Nolin, after all, would not have been available in this manner were it not for the Davis trade.)
The 26-year-old Nolin was one of four players traded by the Blue Jays to the Athletics in the 2014 Josh Donaldson blockbuster. Long considered one of Toronto’s better prospects, Nolin ranked No. 8 on Baseball America’s list of top prospects just last offseason. BA has profiled him as a potential fourth starter in the past, praising his above-average command and mix of four average or better offerings. Nolin had sports hernia surgery last offseason though, and that may have contributed to an early groin injury that led to more than a month on the disabled list in 2015. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, Nolin made 14 appearances (12 starts) at the Triple-A level, logging an excellent 2.66 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 37.7 percent ground-ball rate. (BA did note that his high arm slot made him likely to end up as an extreme fly-ball pitcher).
In the Majors, Nolin struggled quite a bit more, making six starts and totaling a 5.28 ERA in 29 innings of work. Nolin managed just 14 strikeouts against 12 walks in that time, and his fastball sat at just 86.9 mph — a considerable drop from the low 90s heat he showed when healthy and rising through the Blue Jays’ farm system.
Milwaukee will hope for better health out of Nolin than the A’s received in 2015. If he is indeed back to form, he’ll give the Brewers another option in what would otherwise project to be an all-right-handed rotation. Nolin is out of minor league options, so he’ll need to crack the roster out of Spring Training or again be exposed to waivers and clear before the Brewers would be able to option him to Triple-A Colorado Springs.