Rangers Avoid Arbitration With Mitch Moreland
The Rangers have agreed to a deal with first baseman Mitch Moreland to avoid arbitration, as T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com first reported on Twitter. He’ll earn $5.7MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility.
With a hearing looming early today, the sides were apparently able to strike a last-minute arrangement. Moreland and his reps at RMG Baseball had filed at $6MM, with the team countering at just $4.675MM.
The ultimate settlement value, then, was well above the midpoint — an unusually big win for either side, especially a player. It comes in just above the $5.6MM salary projected by MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz heading into the season.
Moreland, 30, earned just $2.95MM last year after a tough 2014, but set himself up for a fruitful final pass through the arb process with a strong 2015 season. Over 515 plate appearances on the year, Moreland carried a .278/.330/.482 slash and added 23 long balls.
That’s not exactly setting the world on fire for a defensively-limited player, but it did make him a sturdy regular. With slightly above-average ratings at first base added to the equation, Moreland landed right at 2 WAR for the year.
With his final year’s contract on the books, Moreland will be playing for free agency. Barring a breakout of some kind, he has his limitations. He carries rather significant platoon splits and would be best deployed with a productive bench piece around to step in against southpaws. And Moreland’s strong power is not quite matched in the on-base department. When his BABIP fell to .255 in 2013, he was a below-average overall performer (95 wRC+) despite near-identical power output to last year’s effort (23 home runs, .206 ISO).
That’s not to say he won’t hold his share of open-market appeal, of course, as he once again showed he can be good overall contributor at the dish and does have a solid glove at first. Most importantly, he made 2014 — when his power fell precipitously and he dealt with ankle issues — seem like an outlier.
Evan Gattis Out Four To Six Weeks Following Hernia Surgery
11:24pm: Gattis’ surgery took place earlier today, tweets MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart.
9:08pm: Astros designated hitter Evan Gattis recently underwent surgery to repair a hernia and will be sidelined for four to six weeks, reports Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. As a result, Gattis will miss “most of his Spring Training, at a minimum,” per Drellich, though the overall injury is not considered to be severe in nature.
Gattis, 29, has an arbitration hearing set for Feb. 16, and Drellich notes that the new revelation in his health could have some form of an impact on the case. Of course, his current injury status doesn’t change the power production that Gattis delivered in his first year with Houston, when he batted .246/.285/.463 with 27 homers and 88 RBIs in 604 plate appearances. He submitted a $3.8MM salary figure for the upcoming season, while the team countered at $3MM. As a file-and-trial team, the Astros have a policy of not negotiating one-year deals once salary figures are exchanged, so an arbitration panel will decide which of the two figures Gattis should earn in a week’s time.
It’s worth bearing in mind that the exact date of his surgery isn’t known. And, even if Gattis missed six full weeks beginning today, he’d still have about 10 Spring Training contests to get up to speed. Any type of setback in his recovery, though, would seem to raise the possibility that he’d begin the season on the shelf. That’s a worst-case scenario for Gattis with regard to this injury, of course, and there’s certainly the chance that he could recover in time for the team’s April 4 opener at Yankee Stadium.
Even in the event that Gattis needs to miss a portion of the regular season, the injury doesn’t seem to increase the likelihood of Houston making any sort of notable acquisition. Either Colby Rasmus or Preston Tucker, for instance, could pick up some extra DH time, with Jake Marisnick temporarily taking on a greater role in the outfield and providing the club with a defensive boost.
Blue Jays Notes: Price, Donaldson, Bautista, Floyd
Blue Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro appeared on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM and spoke to Jim Bowden about the decision not to re-sign David Price this offseason (audio link). “Every team has a budget,” Shapiro began. “Every team has operating parameters. I don’t know why it’s not fashionable to just say the truth. David Price would’ve represented almost our entire offseason. It’s that simple, Jim. Almost no one would make that decision. … To me, it comes down to we had a very, very, very challenging pitching dilemma here in that we lost him, we lost [Marco] Estrada. We had zero Triple-A pitchers — not one, not a name to fill our rotation in Triple-A. We had to take the money, which was ample, and figure out how to both solve the Major League rotation, which was two spots in the rotation, along with solving a depth challenge. … Regardless of how great one pitcher is, you need to build a team around the guy, too.”
More from Shapiro and more on the Jays…
- Within that same interview, Shapiro also said that he discussed multiple concepts with Josh Donaldson‘s representatives before agreeing to a two-year, $29MM contract. The club explored long-term contract scenarios that would buy out free-agent years as well as three-year deals to lock in all of his remaining arbitration seasons and also just straight one-year deals. “Josh is a guy that not only performed at an elite level from a talent perspective but provided the energy, leadership and competitive edge that, to me, fueled this team last year,” said Shapiro of the reigning American League MVP.
- With Donaldson’s contract situation now resolved, the club can turn its attention to Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Shapiro explained that the team has a clear desire to extend each player, but the question of what it will take to do so is significant. Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron attempts to price out an extension for Bautista, who will turn 36 in October and is thus considerably older than the typical extension candidate. Even elite position players in Bautista’s age class have been limited to a maximum of four years, writes Cameron, citing the contracts for Victor Martinez, Ben Zobrist and Carlos Beltran as examples of older stars that have taken four (or, in Beltran’s case, three) years on the open market. As Cameron notes, a good bit of decline will need to be expected over the term of the contract, and it’s likely that Bautista would look like an overvalued asset in a four-year deal’s final season. Ultimately, after making a four-year WAR projection and forecasting for some year-to-year regression, Cameron arrives at a four-year, $75MM pact as a reasonable price.
- There’s some sense to that deal for both sides, to be sure, though I personally wonder if Cameron’s general hypothesis that Bautista would land at four years and $90MM on the open market next year undersells his earning potential. Assuming a characteristically productive season, Bautista could be the premier bat on a thin free-agent market, and age notwithstanding, a $22.5MM annual value isn’t the top of the spectrum for premium power hitters. I’d wager that a current Blue Jays extension would have to top $80MM in total value, as I can envision enough interest in his bat to push that earning ceiling closer to, or even north of $100MM on the open market, either via an increased annual value or via a club tacking on a fifth year (at a much lower rate) as a means of pushing its offer over the top. (For those interested in further reading on Bautista, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk profiled his extension candidacy back in November.)
- Gavin Floyd‘s strong finish to the 2015 season in Cleveland impressed not only Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins (both were still with the Indians at the time), but a number of Blue Jays scouts as well, writes Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith. Floyd’s fastball sat at 92 mph and touched 95 mph, writes Nicholson-Smith, and with three additional breaking pitches in his arsenal, Atkins, Shapiro and the scouting staff deemed him worthy of a 40-man roster spot if that was the final component needed to get Floyd to Toronto. “He has the make-up of a starter with a repeatable delivery and a four-pitch arsenal,” said Atkins. “We’ve also seen his work ethic up close and we know it’s going to be there.” As Nicholson-Smith notes, Floyd doesn’t need to provide much value to justify such a minimal investment.
NL Notes: Belt, Lamb, Phillips, Hill, Plawecki
The Giants and first baseman Brandon Belt have an arbitration hearing set for tomorrow, Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News tweeted last night. The two sides are facing a $2.2MM gap between Belt’s $7.5MM salary figure and the $5.3MM counter from the team (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker), and Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that with the hearing so close, the sides are focused on a one-year deal rather than a longer-term pact. Of course, long-term negotiations can always resume and carry on into Spring Training, so it does make some sense to focus efforts on avoiding the dreaded arbitration hearing for the time being.
Here’s more from the NL…
- Reds left-hander John Lamb, who had been expected to compete for a spot in the team’s rotation this spring, had back surgery in December, reports MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. In an MLB Network appearance with Chris Russo today (video link), Cincinnati manager Bryan Price revealed that Lamb will eventually be in the rotation mix but isn’t expected to be ready until mid-April. Per Price, right-handers Anthony DeSclafani and Raisel Iglesias are locked into rotation spots heading into Spring Training, but the remaining three spots will be up for grabs, with names like John Moscot, Cody Reed, Robert Stephenson and Brandon Finnegan all in the mix for one of the three spots until Homer Bailey returns, which the team expects will happen on May 1. Price went out of his way to state that despite some opinions that Finnegan is best-suited for the bullpen, the Reds like him as a starting pitcher.
- From that same interview, Price said that he’s “not really surprised” that Brandon Phillips vetoed a trade that would have sent him to the Nationals despite the Reds‘ rebuild. “Brandon, I think, just absolutely loves Cincinnati,” Price explained. “He loves the fans. He loves the team. He loves the ball park. I think he really values the fact that the Reds threw a lot of trust in him when they acquired him from Cleveland and gave him a chance to play.”
- Tom Haudricout of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel spoke with Aaron Hill and Brewers manager Craig Counsell about the trade that sent the veteran Hill to Milwaukee. Hill explained to Haudricourt that being traded to a rebuilding team isn’t necessarily a bad thing, stressing that the emphasis on competition still exists and adding that he has a tremendous amount of respect for his new skipper. Of Hill, Counsell said that the Brewers look forward to Hill working with the team’s younger players and expect there to be “a lot of playing time” for Hill. “I do think his experience is valuable on this club with a lot of new faces and a lot of young faces, and a lot of players who are going to go through experiences in the big leagues for the first time,” said Counsell. Haudricourt notes that Hill will platoon with Scooter Gennett at second base and also receive some starts at third base against right-handed pitching.
- Mets catcher Kevin Plawecki underwent offseason sinus surgery, he tells Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News. The operation, according to Plawecki, was performed with the goal of alleviating persistent bouts of dizziness. Plawecki says that his right sinus became completely blocked, preventing airflow through that side of his nose and leading to extreme dizzy spells that were aggravated each time the team would fly. “It was almost like a drunk feeling without having anything to drink, that’s the best description,” said Plawecki. The soon-to-be 25-year-old figures to serve as the primary backup to Travis d’Arnaud for the Mets this season and would step into a starting role in the event that d’Arnaud’s injury problems persist.
Lazaro Armenteros Weighing Offers
Highly touted Cuban outfielder Lazaro Armenteros (aka “Lazarito”) will spend the next 24 hours mulling his options and is expected to decide on a team tomorrow, reports MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. Lazaro himself told Sanchez recently that he hoped to make a decision tomorrow, though he left open the possibility that the decision process could take longer. “I’m planning on making a decision on [Wednesday], but only God knows what will happen and when I will sign,” Armenteros said to Sanchez. “I’m not worried about it. I’m just waiting on the right opportunity.” The ballyhooed 16-year-old is drawing serious interest from nine clubs, according to Sanchez, including the Braves, Cubs, Dodgers, Padres and Phillies.
Of that group, the Braves, Phillies and Padres would need to either exceed their 2015-16 international bonus pool in order to sign Lazarito or convince him to wait until the 2016-17 international signing period before signing. Both the Braves and Padres have been said to be planning on vastly overshooting their 2016-17 international pools, and Sanchez notes that the Phillies are in a similar boat, as they’re expected to have an impressive class of international signings next period as well. Signing Lazarito in the current period would prevent any of those three clubs from following through on those plans, as his bonus would force the teams into penalty territory and bar them from signing a player for more than $300K in the 2016-17 class (and again in the 2017-18 class, for that matter). Each team almost certainly has verbal agreements already in place with international amateurs, which would have to be broken in order to sign Armenteros.
Thus far in the 2015-16 signing period, the Cubs, Dodgers, Giants and Royals have incurred maximum penalties by overshooting their pools, meaning that the only cost to one of those four clubs would be purely financial. (Armenteros’ bonus plus a 100 percent luxury tax on the amount for which he signs.) Meanwhile, the Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, Diamondbacks and Rays would all be ineligible to sign Armenteros after exceeding their 2014-15 bonus pools and incurring spending penalties on this year’s class and the 2016-17 class of international free agents.
Armenteros was declared a free agent by Major League Baseball a little over a month ago and has since hosted an open showcase in addition to private workouts for multiple clubs, the most recent of which came on Monday, per Sanchez (though he lists the team involved in that private workout as “undisclosed”). Armenteros has worked out as both a center fielder and corner outfielder, drawing praise for his power, speed and athleticism. Sanchez ranks him eighth among international prospects and second among those that have not already signed, although the current iteration of his rankings does not include the Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (who has not yet been declared a free agent) or any international free agent that is exempt from international bonus pools. In his scouting reports, Sanchez notes that there’s a wide variance in scouts’ opinions on Lazarito’s arm, and some scouts have questioned how his “muscular college-football-player body” will look as he continues to grow. Armenteros is already listed at 6’2″ and 205 pounds, and if he continues to add to that frame, a move to the corner outfield certainly seems like a reasonable outcome.
White Sox, Travis Ishikawa Agree To Minor League Deal
4:22pm: SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets that Ishikawa’s deal comes with a $900K base salary in the Majors — the same figure he’d received on the Mariners deal that ultimately fell apart.
3:54pm: The White Sox and first baseman Travis Ishikawa have agreed to a minor league contract with an invitation to Major League Spring Training, MLB.com’s Scott Merkin tweets. Ishikawa had previously agreed to a minor league deal with the Mariners earlier this offseason, but that deal fell through last month. This will mark Ishikawa’s second stint with the Sox, as he signed there in July 2013 and finished out that season with Chicago’s Triple-A affiliate in Charlotte.
The 32-year-old Ishikawa, a Jim McDowell client, split the 2015 campaign between the Pirates and Giants, batting a combined .206/.306/.302 in 72 Major League plate appearances and a combined .267/.337/.420 in the minors with the two organizations. Though he hasn’t occupied a semi-regular role since his 2009 season with the Giants, Ishikawa has averaged 112 big league plate appearances per year across the past six seasons, and he’s a career .255/.321/.391 hitter in the Majors.
The White Sox don’t appear, on the surface, to have much in the way of at-bats for another first baseman, though Ishikawa does have a bit of corner outfield experience. He’ll serve as a depth option for the Sox, who have Jose Abreu and Adam LaRoche penciled in as their primary first base and DH options, with right-handed sluggers Mike Olt and Jerry Sands serving as potential corner/DH alternatives on the 40-man roster.
White Sox Sign Mat Latos
The White Sox have officially added free agent righty Mat Latos on a one-year, $3MM pact. It’s a straight guaranteed deal with no incentives or options.
Latos has long appeared to be one of the better bounceback options on this year’s market, as he’s only just turned 28 and has established a rather lofty ceiling in the majors. The Bledsoe Agency client does come with some health concerns after dealing with elbow issues and tallying just 218 2/3 innings over the past two seasons, but he was largely healthy after an early DL stint in 2015.
Clubs are often willing to give more significant guarantees to such players — Justin Masterson, for instance, got $9.5MM from the Red Sox and Doug Fister just secured $7MM from the Astros. Low-base, high-incentive deals are another popular option; to take but one recent example, Bronson Arroyo received $6MM worth of upside in his deal with the Nationals (if he cracks the major league roster).
In the case of Latos, though, it seems there may have been some hesitation about adding a player who has developed a questionable reputation in prior clubhouses. It doesn’t help that he scuffled badly down the stretch with both the Dodgers and Angels, of course, but it remains notable that Latos fell so far shy of expectations — $12MM on a one-year deal, in the estimation of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes — in a market that paid out so much for pitching. It was just last winter that the Marlins gave up a solid young pitching prospect for the rights to employ Latos at what turned out to be a $9.4MM salary.
By taking on some risk, but making only a limited commitment, the White Sox seem to have made a worthy gamble to bolster their rotation. The staff’s top three looks quite strong, but as August Fagerstrom of Fangraphs notes, John Danks and Erik Johnson are an underwhelming duo behind that group and there isn’t much depth to speak of. Fagerstrom was explaining why a move for Yovani Gallardo might make sense, but that would seem rather unlikely after today’s move.
Of course, the addition of Latos represents quite a different proposition than that of a player such as Gallardo, whose main claim to free agent earnings comes from durability and solid innings. But gambling on the still-youthful righty is arguably a better allocation of resources for a club that’s already committed to exceed its 2015 Opening Day payroll and still has other areas to improve.
Latos has every incentive to get himself back on track, and the upside is significant. Other than his struggles as a rookie and his troubles last year, the big righty has been a major contributor. In over 900 innings between 2010 and 2014, he logged a 3.27 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9.
Looking more closely at his efforts last year, it’s easy to see cause to look past an unsightly 4.95 ERA. All major ERA estimators valued him as a sub-4.00 pitcher, and he not only recovered velocity from 2014, but improved over his early-season results as the year wore on. Latos posed a swinging strike rate (9.9%) that lines up with his earlier years’ work. Of course, the finish left much to be desired, but on the whole there’s plenty to roll the dice on.
ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick first reported the signing on Twitter. Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago had the value via Twitter. SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo noted (on Twitter) that no incentives or options were included.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of today’s live chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Astros Win Arbitration Hearing Against Jason Castro
The Astros have defeated catcher Jason Castro in their arbitration hearing, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. He’ll earn $5MM for the coming season after filing at $5.25MM.
This dispute seemed to be one of principle, as practicalities would have suggested a compromise with just $250K at issue. Castro had been projected by MLBTR to earn only $4.6MM in his final season of arb eligibility, and Houston seemingly felt it had already gone high enough in its negotiations. Indeed, the team reportedly took a “file and trial” stance with respect to his case.
Castro earned $4MM last year but turned in a disappointing overall campaign. Despite carrying a rare left-handed bat for a backstop, and receiving near-regular playing time in the prior two seasons, he only took 375 plate appearances. Already coming off of a down 2014, Castro did not post the hoped-for turnaround. All told, since his breakout 2013 campaign, he owns a .217/.284/.365 slash with 25 home runs.
There’s cause to think there could be more in the tank, of course. Castro has shown an average to above-average bat in prior campaigns, and did manage a useful .219/.299/.408 batting line against right-handed pitching last year. His strikeout rate remains a concern, but he’s succeeded with big K numbers before, and might be in line for some positive regression after posting a .280 BABIP.
Castro has also turned himself into a highly-regarded defender — see here for one recent evaluation from a statistical perspective, and read this on his framing. As a defensively-proficient, lefty-swinging receiver, he doesn’t need to do much with the bat to justify a prominent role, and the glove gives him a nice floor. Castro should still more than justify his salary, and his good power (.154 ISO in 2015) leaves some room for upside.
Free Agent Notes: Rays, Desmond, Marlins, Lincecum, Gallardo, Gurriel Bros.
The Rays are a “long shot” to land Ian Desmond, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on Twitter, with the required draft pick compensation (from the qualifying offer he declined) posing a significant barrier. Tampa Bay is in “bargain shopping” mode, he adds. We’ve seen previous suggestions that Desmond could line up with the Rays, though he doesn’t make for the most obvious roster match and it’s always seemed that he’d need to take a deal far below pre-winter expectations for that to occur.
Here are some more rumblings from the open market:
- There are plenty of other teams hunting for value at this stage of the market, of course, with the Marlins eyeing pitching, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). We’ve heard that before, of course, and the club seems to be a prime destination for players seeking opportunity as the market settles.
- One possibility that has often been tied to Miami is righty Tim Lincecum, who is preparing for a showcase some time this month. Sherman tweets that his agent, Rick Thurman, will check in on the veteran’s progress tomorrow as his camp decides upon a date to call in the scouts.
- Yovani Gallardo remains the best available free agent arm, and Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets that he’s still drawing interest from the Orioles and two other teams. Cotillo had suggested (via Twitter) that the bidding would come down to the O’s, Astros, and Rockies, but Houston is out of the hunt after signing Doug Fister and he now says that Colorado appears to be on the sidelines.
- August Fagerstrom of Fangraphs argues that the White Sox may be the better fit for Gallardo, given their lack of quality and depth at the back of the rotation. It helps, of course, that the team’s first overall selection is protected. It’s worth noting that Chicago also makes a good deal of sense for the other remaining qualified free agents — Desmond and Dexter Fowler — and could in theory lower the average draft pick compensation cost by signing more than one such player. On the other hand, Chicago’s current spending commitments are already right at last year’s Opening Day mark once you account for league-minimum salaries to round out the roster. Things look slightly better in 2017, though, with John Danks and Adam LaRoche coming off of the books, so creative contract structuring could create some daylight.
- Two new names to watch in the coming months are prominent Cuban brothers Yulieski Gurriel and Lourdes Gurriel, both of whom reportedly left the national team in the Dominican Republic with intentions of heading towards major league free agency. But it might be unrealistic to expect to see either appear in the 2016 campaign, Ben Badler of Baseball America explains. His colleague, John Manuel, breaks down both players, noting that the elder Yulieski is a better player than Hector Olivera and could “set off a significant bidding war.” And for more reading on the interesting pair, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch explains their unique place in Cuban baseball.