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Reds Option Graham Ashcraft

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The Reds announced Thursday that they’ve optioned struggling right-hander Graham Ashcraft to Triple-A Louisville. His spot on the roster will go to reliever Emilio Pagan, who’s being reinstated after a stint on the 15-day injured list due to a triceps injury.

It’s the first time Ashcraft, 26, has been optioned to the minors since May 2022, when he was sent down a day after making his MLB debut in a spot start. The 2019 sixth-rounder started 19 games for Cincinnati in 2022 and another 26 games last year. Were it not for a calf strain and a stress reaction in his foot, he’d have been ticketed for a full slate of starts in the Reds’ rotation last season.

Though Ashcraft has struggled with consistency, he’s at times looked the part of a viable third or fourth starter in the Reds’ rotation. He opened last season with a dominant 2.00 ERA in his first six trips to the hill, and while his K-BB profile didn’t support quite that level of success, he was showing huge ground-ball tendencies and finding success with a new cutter and revamped slider that looked far better than his 2022 version of the same pitch.

A disastrous stretch followed, wherein Ashcraft was shellacked for 47 earned runs in 33 innings over his next eight starts — including outings that saw him yield ten, eight, seven (twice) and six earned runs. Lost as he looked in that span of six weeks, Ashcraft then rattled off a dozen starts of 2.58 ERA ball to close out his season, averaging 6 1/3 innings per start along the way and never allowing more than three runs in any one start. The big righty still had a subpar strikeout rate in that excellent run but offset that flaw with improved command and strong ground-ball tendencies. It was a promising finish to a season — one that seemed to speak louder than his ultimately pedestrian 4.76 ERA.

The 2024 season has again been a struggle, though not to the extent of last year’s eye-popping slump. Ashcraft currently sports a 5.05 ERA with a well below-average 17.4% strikeout rate but a strong 7.5% walk rate and encouraging 49% ground-ball rate. However, after averaging more than six innings per start down the stretch last year and pitching into the sixth inning in five of his first six starts this season, Ashcraft has struggled with efficiency of late. He’s pitched into the sixth just once in his past six trips to the hill. Though he’s averaging less than 4 2/3 frames per outing in this stretch, he’s done so while requiring an average of 89 pitches along the way.

Unsurprisingly, Ashcraft’s results have suffered. He posted a 3.63 ERA through his first six starts but has turned in a 6.83 mark since that time. His walk rate has spiked from 6.1% to 9%, and his strikeout rate has fallen from 20.1% to 14.3%. He’ll now try to get back on track in Louisville.

From a service time vantage point, Ashcraft’s demotion isn’t likely to alter his path to free agency. He entered the season with 1.136 years of MLB service, meaning he only needed another 36 days to reach two years and stay on track for free agency in the 2028-29 offseason. That said, he was on track to be a very likely Super Two player, making him arbitration-eligible four times rather than the standard three, and that’ll become unlikely if his stay in Louisville lasts more than a couple weeks.

The Reds will continue to deploy a rotation including Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott and Frankie Montas. Veteran swingman Nick Martinez, signed to a two-year deal, could step back into the rotation in place of Ashcraft for the time being. Triple-A starters Connor Phillips, Christian Roa, Lyon Richardson and Carson Spiers are all on the 40-man roster and could represent alternative options, but Spiers is the only one of that group who’s pitched particularly well in Louisville this season. He’s made four long relief appearances for Cincinnati already this season, totaling 13 2/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball. Lefty Brandon Williamson has yet to pitch in the big leagues this season due to a shoulder injury but is another candidate, as he’s made four minor league rehab starts and is nearing the end of his rehab window.

The Surprising Rock Of The Marlins’ Rotation

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At last year’s trade deadline, the Marlins and Padres made a trade that largely flew under the radar at the time but is now proving to be fairly significant. The Fish sent Garrett Cooper and minor league pitcher Sean Reynolds to the Friars for left-hander Ryan Weathers.

Trades of star players like Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer stole the headlines at the time, while other notable players like Paul Sewald, Jeimer Candelario and Mark Canha also changed teams. Even within Miami, the acquisitions of Jake Burger and Josh Bell garnered far more attention than the Weathers deal, and that was fairly understandable back then. Burger and Bell immediately joined the big league club and helped them reach the playoffs, their first full-season postseason appearance in 20 years.

Cooper has been a decent hitter at times but has also been frequently hurt and was an impending free agent at the time. Reynolds was a 25-year-old who had only recently converted to pitching after spending his earlier professional seasons as a first baseman and outfielder.

Weathers had been a big name a few years prior. The former No. 7 overall pick was ranked by Baseball America as the No. 84 prospect in the league going into 2021, but Weathers hadn’t been impressing prior to the deal. He had thrown 143 big league innings for the Padres before becoming a Marlin, allowing 5.73 earned runs per nine frames.

Even in the minors, Weathers wasn’t exactly mowing opponents down. He had a 6.73 ERA in 123 innings for Triple-A El Paso in 2022. That club plays in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but Weathers had subpar strikeout and walk rates of 15.6% and 10.1%. With El Paso in 2023, he lowered his ERA to 4.20 and struck out 29.2% of batters faced but was still giving out walks at an ugly 13.5% rate. The Padres called him up for 44 2/3 innings in the majors last year, but he had a 6.25 ERA in that time, striking out just 14.8% of opponents. The fact that the Padres were willing to let him go for a pretty limited package suggests that they considered his stock way down relative to when he was a top-10 pick and top-100 prospect.

Weathers was largely an afterthought coming into this year. Even with Sandy Alcántara undergoing Tommy John surgery last year, Miami’s rotation mix projected to include Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett, Max Meyer and Trevor Rogers. Reliever A.J. Puk was going to be stretched out, giving the club another potential starter. Since Weathers still has an option year left, it seemed like he would have to start 2024 in the minors and earn his way into a big league job.

That’s not the way things have played out thus far. Garrett, Cabrera and Pérez all started the season on the injured list due to injuries, with Pérez ultimately requiring Tommy John surgery. Luzardo and Puk eventually hit the IL during the season, with the latter moved back to a relief role when the starting experiment failed. Meyer made three good starts but was optioned to the minors so the club could monitor his workload as he ramps back up from 2022 Tommy John surgery.

Amid all of that, Weathers has been the club’s best and most consistent starter this year. He has taken the ball 12 times and logged 68 2/3 innings, while no one else has topped 57. On top of the quantity, Weathers has also provided quality with a 3.41 ERA. His 22.1% strikeout rate is close to average, but his 6.9% walk rate is strong and his 51.5% ground ball rate is very good.

Manager Skip Schumaker recently appeared on MLB Network Radio and discussed the breakout from Weathers (X link, with audio). The skipper talked about how he had seen Weathers up close earlier in his career, as Schumaker was employed by the Padres through the 2021 season. Schumaker spoke about how Weathers managed to rise to the majors quickly due to his fastball but that hitters started to adjust. That prompted Weathers to spend the most recent offseason working to improve the other pitches in his arsenal, which seems to be paying off so far this year.

“He bought a TrackMan and different things and created kind of his own pitching lab back home,” Schumaker said, “and figured out how to spin the ball better and really manipulate the changeup into a way where he can throw it for strikes and to throw it strike-to-ball when he needed as well to get swing-and-miss.”

Weathers threw his four-seam fastball more than 50% of the time in each of his first three big league seasons, according to Statcast, but that number is down 40.2% in 2024. He’s going to the changeup 26.1% of the time but also throwing a sweeper at a 20.4% rate, a sinker at a 12.2% clip and a smattering of sliders as well. Opponents are hitting .174 against the changeup with a .349 slugging percentage, while those numbers are just .132 and .211 against the sweeper. The changeup has a 40.1% whiff rate and 36.8% hard hit rate, with the sweeper getting whiffs on 55.2% of swings and hit hard (95 mph or greater) just 11.8% of the time hitters make contact.

This is still a small sample size of just 12 starts, but Weathers was previously a touted prospect and has made a concerted effort to evolve. Since he charged so quickly to the majors, his struggles occurred at an age when many pitchers are still in college or climbing the minor league ladder. He’s still only 24 years old despite this technically being his fourth season in the majors.

Perhaps the Marlins have found a solid piece for their rotation from that small trade last year, which would be significant for them. Weathers came into this season with one year and 66 days of major league service time. That means he won’t qualify for arbitration until after 2025 and can be controlled through 2028.

Though they once seemed to be overloaded with starting pitching options, the group has been thinned out recently. They traded Pablo López and Jake Eder in recent years. Alcantara and Pere had Tommy John surgery this year. Well-regarded prospect Dax Fulton had a UCL repair (not a full Tommy John surgery) last summer and has yet to pitch this season. Sixto Sanchez has been consistently hobbled by shoulder injuries. And, Miami’s poor performance this year could lead to further selling, with Luzardo and Rogers speculative possibilities.

Even if those arms do end up being traded — Luzardo, in particular, seems likely — it’s possible to imagine the Marlins having a strong rotation consisting of Weathers, Alcántara, Pérez, Meyer, Cabrera and Garrett by late 2025, with all of those names controllable through at least 2027. Trades of Luzardo and others on the roster could bring in further rotation candidates as well. Plans rarely go that smoothly, as injuries and changes in performance will undoubtedly occur, but the continued evolution of Weathers is a huge bright spot during a season that’s otherwise been bleak in Miami.

Orioles Select Cade Povich

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June 6: Baltimore has now formally selected Povich’s contract from Triple-A Norfolk, per a team announcement. Left-hander Nick Vespi was optioned to Norfolk in a corresponding 26-man roster move. The Orioles’ 40-man roster is now at capacity.

June 5: The Orioles are calling up pitching prospect Cade Povich to start tomorrow’s series finale with the Blue Jays, manager Brandon Hyde told the team’s beat (X link via Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner). Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reported this morning (on X) that Povich was meeting the team in Toronto, initially as a member of the taxi squad.

It’s the first call for the 6’3″ left-hander. Povich, a University of Nebraska product, was a third-round pick of the Twins in 2021. He was in High-A in the Minnesota organization when the O’s acquired him at the ’22 deadline. Baltimore sent closer Jorge López, then in the midst of an All-Star season, to the Twin Cities for Yennier Cano, Povich, and two other minor league pitchers.

The move was an unpopular one among the clubhouse and with a large portion of the fanbase considering the O’s were on the fringe of playoff contention. Yet it has become an unquestioned win for Baltimore, as Cano almost immediately blossomed into one of the best relievers in the game. Povich, now 24, is one of the more talented pitchers in their system.

Povich split last season between Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk, logging 126 2/3 innings across 28 starts. A cumulative 5.04 earned run average isn’t particularly impressive, but Povich was one of the better strikeout pitchers in the minors. He fanned 171 hitters, behind only Drew Thorpe and Tobias Myers among all minor league pitchers. While that’s partially a reflection of Povich’s durability, his 31.1% strikeout rate was also well above average.

That has continued over 11 starts with Norfolk in 2024, this time leading to better run prevention. Povich has punched out 32.5% of batters faced en route to a 3.18 ERA in 56 2/3 innings. His 9.1% walk rate is a little higher than ideal for a starting pitcher, but it’s an encouraging overall showing just the same.

Povich isn’t the same caliber of prospect as Baltimore’s most touted position players (e.g. Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo). He’s generally viewed by evaluators as a potentially solid starting pitcher. Baseball America and The Athletic’s Keith Law each slotted him in the back half of the O’s top 10 prospects over the offseason.

Law praised Povich’s changeup and curveball, while BA lauds the arm-side run on his fastball. FanGraphs ranks him fifth in the system and as the sport’s #92 prospect overall, with praise for the deception in his delivery and his collection of offspeed pitches. Povich will need to continue improving his strike-throwing, but there’s broad agreement that he has the repertoire to be a big league starter.

He steps into a rotation that lost John Means and swingman Tyler Wells to elbow surgery last week. Baltimore is operating with a starting five of Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Cole Irvin and Albert Suárez. Righty Dean Kremer is shelved by a triceps strain but could return this month. It’s a strong top three, but the rotation depth is a relative question mark on a very good team that is off to a 39-21 start. The O’s will likely be linked to starting pitchers in trade rumors over the next two months.

Povich will look to make a good initial impression as the front office evaluates their back-end starters before the deadline. He is not on the 40-man roster, but the O’s already have an opening. They’re carrying the maximum 13 pitchers on the active roster, so they will need to send out another pitcher tomorrow.

The Opener: All-Star Voting, Povich, White Sox

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As the 2024 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. All-Star Voting begins:

The first phase of MLB’s All-Star fan voting opened yesterday. Phase one of voting will continue until June 27 at 11am CT. Fans are allowed to vote five times per day and, as per usual, vote for one infielder at each position per league, one DH per league, and three outfielders per league. Much like last year, the player who receives the most votes overall in each league will be automatically assured a starting spot at their position on their league’s All-Star roster, while the top two infielders at each position per league, top two DHs per league, and top six outfielders per league will all move on to the second phase of voting, which runs from June 30 to July 3. You can follow this link to cast a ballot for yourself.

2. Povich to debut:

The Orioles are promoting top pitching prospect Cade Povich for his major league debut later today, as manager Brandon Hyde told reporters last night. Povich is not yet on the club’s 40-man roster, but a corresponding move won’t be necessary as Baltimore has had space available since right-hander Thyago Vieira was designated for assignment earlier this week.

Selected by the Twins in the third round of the 2021 draft, Povich came over to the Orioles alongside Yennier Cano in the trade that sent Jorge Lopez to Minnesota. His first full season in Baltimore was a difficult one (5.04 ERA in 126 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A), but he’s enjoyed plenty of success at Triple-A in 2024. In 56 2/3 innings, Povich has posted a 3.18 ERA with a fantastic 32.5% strikeout rate while cutting his walk rate from last year’s 12% to a more manageable 9.1%. Povich, who recently landed 99th on Baseball America’s updated top-100 prospect list, will take the mound opposite Blue Jays lefty Yusei Kikuchi (3.66 ERA) at 1:07pm local time.

3. White Sox’ historic skid continues:

It’s hardly a surprise that the 2024 campaign has been a brutal one for the White Sox after the club lost 101 games last year, made only token additions to the club’s roster during the offseason, and traded ace Dylan Cease to the Padres just before Opening Day. Even when considering those factors, however, the season has been a tough one for fans on the south side of Chicago. The club enters play today with a brutal 15-47 record, “good” for a whopping 26 games back in the AL Central. They’ve reached this low point as a result of an ongoing streak of 13 consecutive losses that includes series sweeps at the hands of the Cubs, Brewers, Blue Jays, and Orioles.

As noted by MLB.com’s Scott Merkin last night, those 13 consecutive losses tie a record from a century ago for the longest losing streak in franchise history. The White Sox will look to avoid breaking that record at 7:10pm local time this evening, when the visiting Red Sox come to town. That task won’t be easy for the club as they’re scheduled to face right-hander Tanner Houck (1.85 ERA), who has been one of the league’s most effective pitchers thus far. One silver lining for Chicago is the recent return of star center fielder Luis Robert Jr. who collected two hits (including a home run) against the Cubs in his first game back from the injured list on Tuesday.

MLBTR Podcast: Gambling Scandal, The State Of The Blue Jays And The Orioles’ Rotation Depth

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Since the Brewers and Willy Adames didn’t reach an extension, is there any chance the Brewers consider trading him this summer? (24:25)
  • It seems like there are more season-ending injuries, but is there any data to support that? If there is, is MLB taking a look at mitigating? (28:25)
  • What will be the financial components of the deadline? Are there any teams that might have a surprising amount of payroll room? (33:50)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Rangers Notes: Carter, Mahle, Bradford, Foscue

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The Rangers placed Evan Carter on the injured list last week, initially announcing the issue as back tightness. Manager Bruce Bochy provided more specifics yesterday, telling reporters (including Kennedi Landry of MLB.com) that the rookie left fielder is dealing with a stress reaction. Texas expects Carter to miss upwards of a month.

It has been a challenging first full MLB season for Carter. The 21-year-old top prospect debuted late in 2023 and immediately cemented himself as a key piece of the franchise’s first World Series run. Carter hit .300/.417/.500 in 17 postseason games, making him a popular Rookie of the Year pick in 2024. He has had a much tougher go through this season’s first couple months, running a .188/.272/.361 line with a 26.5% strikeout rate over 162 plate appearances.

Carter admitted he played through back discomfort for a couple weeks before the IL placement. That certainly could’ve played a role in his middling offense. He remains an integral piece of the Rangers’ plans for this season and beyond, but he’ll be down for a few weeks. Wyatt Langford has stepped into left field, opening some DH at-bats for Robbie Grossman and Ezequiel Duran.

Texas received better news on a few other injured players this week. Offseason signee Tyler Mahle threw to hitters on Wednesday for the first time in his recovery from Tommy John surgery (link via Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News). Mahle is ticketed for three more live sessions before he could head on a minor league rehab stint. If all goes smoothly, he should be on track for his Rangers debut a couple weeks after the All-Star Break.

Mahle is around 13 months removed from the elbow procedure that ended his tenure with the Twins. The right-hander was barely able to pitch for Minnesota. He was a mid-rotation starter with the Reds before that, pitching 180 innings of 3.75 ERA ball while striking out more than 27% of opponents three years ago. The Rangers guaranteed him $22MM on a backloaded two-year deal in December.

Texas has a full rotation on the injured list. Jon Gray has had a fairly brief stint related to a groin strain, but the other four pitchers have faced long recovery timelines. Mahle, Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom are still rehabbing from 2023 surgeries. Cody Bradford has been out since mid-April with a stress fracture in his rib. The southpaw told reporters that he has progressed to throwing from 120 feet on flat ground (X link via Landry). Bradford opened the season as the fifth starter and turned in a 1.40 ERA over 19 1/3 innings in three appearances before the injury.

On the position player side, Texas has been without rookie infielder Justin Foscue for nearly the entire season. The Rangers called up the former first-round draftee on April 2. He took two plate appearances before sustaining a left oblique strain that pushed him to the 60-day injured list. Foscue will be eligible for reinstatement in the next few days and seems to be on track for a return. Texas assigned him to the Arizona complex league to begin a rehab assignment tonight. The Rangers might not have an immediate MLB roster spot for Foscue, as Josh Smith has played very well at third base while Josh Jung has been on the shelf.

Royals Sign Kevin Padlo To Minor League Deal

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The Royals signed Kevin Padlo to a minor league contract. The deal was announced by Kansas City’s Double-A team in Northwest Arkansas, where the infielder will report in his new organization.

It’s a bit of a step down for Padlo, who had been in Triple-A after signing an offseason minor league deal with the Dodgers. Los Angeles released him last week following a middling .216/.340/.380 start to the season. The 27-year-old has had better Triple-A numbers in prior years. He went into 2024 with a career .251/.348/.461 line at the level.

Padlo has played in the majors for five different teams over parts of three seasons. His high in games played for any individual team is nine; he has appeared in 26 contests overall. He’s a .111/.158/.167 hitter in an exceedingly small sample of 57 MLB plate appearances. Padlo has shown a patient approach and decent raw power in the minors, though that’s always come with a fair number of strikeouts. He has fanned in 26.6% of his more than 1500 Triple-A plate appearances.

Rockies Planning To Place Kris Bryant On Injured List

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The Rockies expect to send Kris Bryant back to the 10-day injured list, Bud Black told reporters after today’s loss to the Reds (video relayed on X by Patrick Lyons). The Colorado manager said Bryant’s rib soreness “didn’t really respond to treatment,” necessitating the IL trip. Thomas Harding of MLB.com writes that first baseman Michael Toglia is likely to be recalled in a corresponding move.

It’ll be Bryant’s second IL stint of 2024 and the seventh of the first two and a half seasons on his $182MM free agent deal. The former MVP was plagued by left foot injuries in 2022-23. He lost a month of this year to a lower back strain. This most recent injury occurred over the weekend as he caught a foul ball up against the wall.

Around the injury absences, Bryant has struggled to make an impact. He’s hitting .186/.307/.279 in 101 plate appearances this year. He has appeared in 146 games and tallied 617 trips to the plate in a Rockies uniform. In what essentially amounts to one full season’s worth of games, he has a .247/.331/.385 line in MLB’s most favorable hitter’s park. Bryant spent most of his defensive work in the corner outfield between 2022-23. The Rockies moved him primarily to first base this season in an effort to keep him healthy.

Elehuris Montero has drawn into the lineup at first base for the past few games. He and Toglia are set to split the position while Bryant is out of action. Montero hasn’t provided any kind of impact offensively, struggling to a .213/.279/.303 slash over 197 plate appearances.

The Rox have kept him on the MLB roster because he’s out of options, meaning they’d need to expose him to waivers before they could send him back to Triple-A. They have the leeway to continue giving Montero at-bats that a more competitive team wouldn’t be able to offer, but it stands to reason they’ll need to see more out of the 25-year-old fairly soon if they’re going to carry him all year.

White Sox, Michael Chavis Agree To Minor League Deal

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The White Sox have agreed to a minor league contract with infielder Michael Chavis, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN (X link). The CAA client opted out of a non-roster deal with the Mariners over the weekend.

Brian Anderson, who opted out of a contract with Seattle at the same time, found an immediate MLB opportunity with the Braves. Chavis will need to play his way back to the majors, though a rebuilding Sox team could afford him that chance. Chicago hasn’t gotten much out of Andrew Vaughn, Nicky Lopez or Lenyn Sosa throughout the infield. Chavis wouldn’t be an option to step in at shortstop if the Sox trade Paul DeJong, but he can play any of the other infield positions.

Chavis will try to build off a solid start to his year in Triple-A. Over 46 games with the M’s top affiliate in Tacoma, he hit 290/.366/.485 with seven homers. That’s slightly better than average production in the Pacific Coast League. Chavis now touts an impressive .276/.347/.528 batting line over 521 career plate appearances at the top minor league level.

As one would expect, he hasn’t managed the same caliber of performance against big league pitching. A former first-round pick of the Red Sox, Chavis has taken nearly 1200 MLB plate appearances between Boston, Pittsburgh and Washington. He’s a career .238/.283/.401 hitter. While he has hit 43 homers with roughly average power numbers, a modest 5.4% walk rate and a strikeout percentage pushing 32% have kept his on-base percentage down. He appeared in 48 games for the Nats last year as a sparsely-used depth infielder.

Danny Jansen Is Pulling Away From The Rest Of Next Winter’s Catching Class

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Last offseason's free agent catching class was very weak. Only three players received a multi-year deal, all of which checked in at two years. Mitch Garver is more of a designated hitter, while Tom Murphy and Victor Caratini are backups. There wasn't a top target for teams looking to the open market for a #1 option.

Next winter's group looks similarly light, with one exception. It's comprised mostly by players in their mid-30s who are generally better suited for backup roles. Yet unlike last winter, there's one player emerging as the clear top of the class. Danny Jansen has been a very good player for the last three years. He has taken things up another level through this season's first couple months. If he can stay healthy, he'll be well-positioned for the top free agent catching contract since Willson Contreras topped $87MM two years ago.

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